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Steadying the Ship in Boston Multifamily Report Summer 2017

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Steadying the Ship in Boston Multifamily Report Summer 2017 Steadying the Ship In Boston Multifamily Report Summer 2017 Construction Activity Economic Expansion Investors Target Poised for Cyclical Peak Fuels Demand Value-Add Opportunities BOSTON MULTIFAMILY Market Analysis Rent Growth Moderates; Demand Persists Summer 2017 Above-trend population gains and increasing job growth continue to make Boston Contacts one of the most stable multifamily markets in the U.S. Although rent gains have Paul Fiorilla fallen to 2.3% year-over-year through June, demand remains healthy, supported Associate Director of Research by highly skilled workers, who are increasingly drawn to the metro’s reputation as a Paul.Fiorilla@Yardi.com regional powerhouse and global innovation hub. (800) 866-1124 x5764 Anchored by education and health services and professional and business Jack Kern services, Boston’s diversified economy is adding both blue- and white-collar jobs. Director of Research and Publications While developers bet on the city’s stable, long-term fundamentals, a handful Jack.Kern@Yardi.com of large, mixed-use projects move closer to breaking ground. Massachusetts (800) 866-1124 x2444 Institute of Technology (MIT) is pushing for the rezoning of Kendall Square, which would deliver 1.7 million square feet of office space and 1,400 residential units in Author Cambridge. The 775-foot-tall Winthrop Square, the 1.2 million-square-foot, multi- Bogdan Odagescu building Tremont Crossing and the 677-foot-tall South Station Tower are also set to Senior Associate Editor change the metro’s skyline. Some $350 million in multifamily assets traded in the first half of 2017, marking a slowdown after two years of intense market activity, as more investors focus on value-add plans. With 9,400 units expected to come online by year-end and rents contracting in some of the priciest submarkets, Yardi Matrix forecasts 1.1% rent growth for Boston in 2017. Recent Boston Transactions The Commons at Windsor Gardens The Fairways City: Norwood, Mass. City: Derry, N.H. Buyer: AllianceBernstein Buyer: Chartwell Holdings Purchase Price: $199 MM Purchase Price: $ 100MM Price per Unit: $217,724 Price per Unit: $117,197 Neponset Landing Highland Glen I To Subscribe Hollie Zepke City: Quincy, Mass. City: Westwood, Mass. Audience Development Specialist Buyer: Gerding Edlen Development Buyer: Beacon Communities Hollie.Zepke@Yardi.com Purchase Price: $90 MM Purchase Price: $75 MM (800) 866-1124 x5389 Price per Unit: $319,643 Price per Unit: $416,667 On the cover: Photo by drnadig/iStockphoto.com 2 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston) $300,000 $250,000 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston) $200,000 $300,000 $150,000 $250,000 $100,000 $200,000 $50,000 $150,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $100,000 Boston National $50,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 11 009 010 20 012 013 014 015 016 017 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Boston National Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) 11 009 010 012 013 014 015 016 017 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 3.0% Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) 3.0%2.0% 2.0%1.0% 1.0%0.0% -1.0%0.0% -1.0% Boston National Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston) Boston National 3.5% Supply:3.0% Percentage of Stock (Boston) 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.5% National Boston 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jul 2017 (Boston) National Boston Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jul 2017 (Boston) 18,537.00Units 24,331.00Units 18,537.00Units 24,331.00Units 23,978.00Units Rent Trends 23,978.00Units Rents in Boston were up 2.3% year-over-year through June, 40 basis points below the national growth rate. At $2,133, they continue to bePlanned some ofProspective the highestUnder nationwide, Construction more than $750 above the U.S. average. Transactions: Total Volume (Boston) The working-class Renter-by-NecessityPlanned Prospective sector led Undergains, Construction up 3.2% year-over-year to $1,707. Rents in the upscale Lifestyle$2,500 sector grew by only 1.1%, to an average of $2,652. The disparity is mainly due to a demand-supply50 imbalance:Transactions: Total While Volume (Boston)the city is adding blue- and white-collar jobs, developers remain focused on delivering high- $2,000 40 end properties.$2,500 This continues to widen the metro’s affordability gap, putting pressure on working-class50 renters. Rapid $1,500rent growth has been prevalent in working-class submarkets, among them Lynn (9.1%), Middleborough30 $2,000 40 (8.5%), Rochester (6.0%) and Lawrence (5.1%). At the same time, rents in some of the most expensive core submarkets$1,000 are either contracting or staying flat: North End–Charleston (-2.6%; $3,306), Boston–Downtown20 $1,500 30 (-2.6%; $3,551) and Brookline (0.5%; $2,784). $500 10 $1,000 20 At 96.7% as of June, Boston’s occupancy rate in stabilized properties dropped 20 basis points year-over-year, mostly due$0 to the high number of upscale properties coming online. Because the city is slated to add more0 than 9,000 units$500 by year-end,2009 we expect 2010 rents 2011 to grow 2012 by 1.1% 2013 in 2017. 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 Volume in Millions Number of Properties $0 0 Boston vs. National2009 Rent 2010 Growth 2011 (Sequential 2012 3-Month, 2013 2014 Year-Over-Year) 2015 2016 2017 Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) Volume in Millions Number of Properties 8.0% Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) 6.0% 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% Boston National Source: YardiMatrix Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston) 8.0% Boston National Boston Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3-Month, Year-Over-Year) Rent: Lifestyle6.0% vs RBN (Boston) 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Source: YardiMatrix Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 3 Economic Snapshot The metro added 53,500 jobs in the 12 months ending in May, up 1.5% year-over-year and 40 basis points below the nationwide trend. Boston’s economic expansion is generating jobs across the board, pushing down the metro’s unemployment rate as of April to 3.4%, or 100 basis points behind the U.S. average. Education and health services—a traditional Boston economic driver due to the city’s academic profile and established institutions—added 15,900 positions, continuing to lead growth. White-collar sectors are expanding at a fastTransactions: pace, Price with Per Unit (Boston)professional and business services, financial activities and information adding more than 21,000 jobs.$300,000 The city’s strong office market continues to reflect this expansion: According to Jones Lang LaSalle, vacancy$250,000 rates are hovering near historic lows, with the Central Business District (9.3%) and East Cambridge (3.8%) being the$200,000 tightest submarkets. $150,000 With the construction sector adding 3,400$100,000 jobs, Boston’s flourishing economy is mirroring its changing skyline. At 700 feet, One Dalton is set to become one$50,000 of New England’s tallest residences. MIT is planning the Volpe 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 parcel redvelopment, a project that could bring a 500-foot tower comprising 1.7 million square feet of office Boston National and 1,400 residential units to Kendall Square. Several other large, mixed-use projects—including the Winthrop Square high-rise11 (775 feet) and Hines’ South Station Tower (677 feet)—are getting closer to breaking ground. 009 010 012 013 014 015 016 017 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 Boston vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% Boston National Sources:Supply: YardiMatrix, Percentage of Stock Bureau (Boston) of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted) 3.5% Boston Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) 3.0% 2.5% Current Employment Year Change Code Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 2.0% 65 Education and Health Services 714 21.3% 15,900 2.3% 1.5% 60 Professional and Business Services 559 16.7% 12,100 2.2% 55 1.0%Financial Activities 235 7.0% 5,800 2.5% 90 0.5%Government 397 11.8% 4,400 1.1% 40 0.0%Trade, Transportation and Utilities 521 15.5% 3,500 0.7% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 50 Information 90 2.7% 3,400 3.9% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction National137 Boston 4.1% 3,400 2.5% 80 Other Services 131 3.9% 2,700 2.1% Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston) 70 Leisure and Hospitality 334 10.0% 2,100 0.6% 30 Manufacturing 235 7.0% 200 0.1% Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics 17,870 Units 24,231 Units Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 4 23,405 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction Transactions: Total Volume (Boston) $2,500 50 $2,000 40 $1,500 30 $1,000 20 $500 10 $0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Volume in Millions Number of Properties Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Boston National Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston) 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability Rising 35% in five years, Boston’s median home price reached $445,000 in 2016, suggesting that there is a high barrier for first-time buyers.
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