Steadying the Ship In Boston Multifamily Report Summer 2017
Construction Activity Economic Expansion Investors Target Poised for Cyclical Peak Fuels Demand Value-Add Opportunities BOSTON MULTIFAMILY
Market Analysis Rent Growth Moderates; Demand Persists Summer 2017 Above-trend population gains and increasing job growth continue to make Boston Contacts one of the most stable multifamily markets in the U.S. Although rent gains have Paul Fiorilla fallen to 2.3% year-over-year through June, demand remains healthy, supported Associate Director of Research by highly skilled workers, who are increasingly drawn to the metro’s reputation as a [email protected] regional powerhouse and global innovation hub. (800) 866-1124 x5764 Anchored by education and health services and professional and business Jack Kern services, Boston’s diversified economy is adding both blue- and white-collar jobs. Director of Research and Publications While developers bet on the city’s stable, long-term fundamentals, a handful [email protected] of large, mixed-use projects move closer to breaking ground. Massachusetts (800) 866-1124 x2444 Institute of Technology (MIT) is pushing for the rezoning of Kendall Square, which would deliver 1.7 million square feet of office space and 1,400 residential units in Author Cambridge. The 775-foot-tall Winthrop Square, the 1.2 million-square-foot, multi- Bogdan Odagescu building Tremont Crossing and the 677-foot-tall South Station Tower are also set to Senior Associate Editor change the metro’s skyline.
Some $350 million in multifamily assets traded in the first half of 2017, marking a slowdown after two years of intense market activity, as more investors focus on value-add plans. With 9,400 units expected to come online by year-end and rents contracting in some of the priciest submarkets, Yardi Matrix forecasts 1.1% rent growth for Boston in 2017.
Recent Boston Transactions
The Commons at Windsor Gardens The Fairways
City: Norwood, Mass. City: Derry, N.H. Buyer: AllianceBernstein Buyer: Chartwell Holdings Purchase Price: $199 MM Purchase Price: $ 100MM Price per Unit: $217,724 Price per Unit: $117,197
Neponset Landing Highland Glen I
To Subscribe Hollie Zepke City: Quincy, Mass. City: Westwood, Mass. Audience Development Specialist Buyer: Gerding Edlen Development Buyer: Beacon Communities [email protected] Purchase Price: $90 MM Purchase Price: $75 MM (800) 866-1124 x5389 Price per Unit: $319,643 Price per Unit: $416,667
On the cover: Photo by drnadig/iStockphoto.com 2 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston)
$300,000
$250,000 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston) $200,000 $300,000
$150,000 $250,000
$100,000 $200,000
$50,000 $150,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$100,000 Boston National
$50,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 11 009 010 20 012 013 014 015 016 017 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Boston National
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) 11 009 010 012 013 014 015 016 017 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 3.0%
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston)
3.0%2.0%
2.0%1.0%
1.0%0.0%
-1.0%0.0%
-1.0%
Boston National
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston) Boston National 3.5%
Supply:3.0% Percentage of Stock (Boston) 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.5%
National Boston 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jul 2017 (Boston) National Boston
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jul 2017 (Boston)
18,537.00Units 24,331.00Units
18,537.00Units 24,331.00Units
23,978.00Units Rent Trends
23,978.00Units Rents in Boston were up 2.3% year-over-year through June, 40 basis points below the national growth rate. At $2,133, they continue to bePlanned some ofProspective the highestUnder nationwide, Construction more than $750 above the U.S. average.
Transactions: Total Volume (Boston) The working-class Renter-by-NecessityPlanned Prospective sector led Undergains, Construction up 3.2% year-over-year to $1,707. Rents in the upscale Lifestyle$2,500 sector grew by only 1.1%, to an average of $2,652. The disparity is mainly due to a demand-supply50
imbalance:Transactions: Total While Volume (Boston)the city is adding blue- and white-collar jobs, developers remain focused on delivering high- $2,000 40 end properties.$2,500 This continues to widen the metro’s affordability gap, putting pressure on working-class50 renters.
Rapid $1,500rent growth has been prevalent in working-class submarkets, among them Lynn (9.1%), Middleborough30 $2,000 40 (8.5%), Rochester (6.0%) and Lawrence (5.1%). At the same time, rents in some of the most expensive core submarkets$1,000 are either contracting or staying flat: North End–Charleston (-2.6%; $3,306), Boston–Downtown20 $1,500 30 (-2.6%; $3,551) and Brookline (0.5%; $2,784). $500 10 $1,000 20 At 96.7% as of June, Boston’s occupancy rate in stabilized properties dropped 20 basis points year-over-year, mostly due$0 to the high number of upscale properties coming online. Because the city is slated to add more0 than 9,000 units$500 by year-end,2009 we expect 2010 rents 2011 to grow 2012 by 1.1% 2013 in 2017. 2014 2015 2016 2017 10 Volume in Millions Number of Properties $0 0 Boston vs. National2009 Rent 2010 Growth 2011 (Sequential 2012 3-Month, 2013 2014 Year-Over-Year) 2015 2016 2017 Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) Volume in Millions Number of Properties 8.0%
Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) 6.0% 8.0%
4.0% 6.0%
2.0% 4.0%
0.0% 2.0%
0.0% Boston National
Source: YardiMatrix Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston)
8.0% Boston National Boston Rent Growth by Asset Class (Sequential 3-Month, Year-Over-Year) Rent: Lifestyle6.0% vs RBN (Boston) 8.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 4.0% 0.0% 2.0% -2.0% 0.0%
-2.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
Source: YardiMatrix
Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 3 Economic Snapshot
The metro added 53,500 jobs in the 12 months ending in May, up 1.5% year-over-year and 40 basis points below the nationwide trend. Boston’s economic expansion is generating jobs across the board, pushing down the metro’s unemployment rate as of April to 3.4%, or 100 basis points behind the U.S. average.
Education and health services—a traditional Boston economic driver due to the city’s academic profile and established institutions—added 15,900 positions, continuing to lead growth.
White-collar sectors are expanding at a fastTransactions: pace, Price with Per Unit (Boston)professional and business services, financial activities and information adding more than 21,000 jobs.$300,000 The city’s strong office market continues to reflect this expansion: According to Jones Lang LaSalle, vacancy$250,000 rates are hovering near historic lows, with the Central Business District (9.3%) and East Cambridge (3.8%) being the$200,000 tightest submarkets. $150,000
With the construction sector adding 3,400$100,000 jobs, Boston’s flourishing economy is mirroring its changing skyline.
At 700 feet, One Dalton is set to become one$50,000 of New England’s tallest residences. MIT is planning the Volpe 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 parcel redvelopment, a project that could bring a 500-foot tower comprising 1.7 million square feet of office Boston National and 1,400 residential units to Kendall Square. Several other large, mixed-use projects—including the Winthrop
Square high-rise11 (775 feet) and Hines’ South Station Tower (677 feet)—are getting closer to breaking ground. 009 010 012 013 014 015 016 017 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 Boston vs. National Employment Growth (Year-Over-Year) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston)
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Boston National
Sources:Supply: YardiMatrix, Percentage of Stock Bureau (Boston) of Labor Statistics (not seasonally adjusted)
3.5% Boston Employment Growth by Sector (Year-Over-Year) 3.0%
2.5% Current Employment Year Change Code Employment Sector (000) % Share Employment % 2.0% 65 Education and Health Services 714 21.3% 15,900 2.3% 1.5% 60 Professional and Business Services 559 16.7% 12,100 2.2% 55 1.0%Financial Activities 235 7.0% 5,800 2.5% 90 0.5%Government 397 11.8% 4,400 1.1%
40 0.0%Trade, Transportation and Utilities 521 15.5% 3,500 0.7% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 50 Information 90 2.7% 3,400 3.9% 15 Mining, Logging and Construction National137 Boston 4.1% 3,400 2.5% 80 Other Services 131 3.9% 2,700 2.1% Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston) 70 Leisure and Hospitality 334 10.0% 2,100 0.6% 30 Manufacturing 235 7.0% 200 0.1%
Sources: YardiMatrix, Bureau of Labor Statistics
17,870 Units 24,231 Units Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 4
23,405 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Transactions: Total Volume (Boston)
$2,500 50
$2,000 40
$1,500 30
$1,000 20
$500 10
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Rent: YoY vs National (Boston)
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Boston National
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston)
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Demographics Affordability
Rising 35% in five years, Boston’s median home price reached $445,000 in 2016, suggesting that there is a high barrier for first-time buyers. This trend continues to boost demand for rental units, further deepening affordability issues. According to a National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) report, Boston needs 66,000 new rental units by 2030 in order to keep up with demand, emphasizing the city’s housing shortage.
There is little difference between the cost of renting and owning. The average mortgage payment accounts for 26% of the city’s median income, while the average rent of $2,133 comprises 25%. With income gains matching increasing living expenses, the two rates have remained virtually flat for the past three years.
Boston Rent vs. Own Affordability as a Percentage of Income 27% 26% 27% 25% 26% 24% 25% 23% 24% 22% 23% 21% 22% 20% 21% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20% Rent/Income Mort/Income 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Rent/Income Mort/Income Sources: YardiMatrix, Moody’s Analytics
Boston Median Home Price
$450,000 $400,000 $450,000$350,000 $400,000$300,000 $250,000 $350,000 $200,000 $300,000 $150,000 $250,000 $100,000 $200,000 $50,000 $150,000 $0 $100,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $50,000 Source: Moody’s Analytics $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Population Boston vs. National Population
Boston’s population grew 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 by 100,000 between 2010 and 2016. This accounts for a National 313,998,379 316,204,908 318,563,456 320,896,618 323,127,513 5.3% increase, 80 basis points above the national average. Boston Metro 1,932,212 1,951,700 1,967,617 1,981,463 1,994,976
The metro added 13,500 new residents in 2016, on par with Sources: U.S. Census, Moody’s Analytics the 0.7% U.S. growth rate.
Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 5 Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston) Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston) $300,000 $300,000
$250,000 $250,000
$200,000 $200,000
$150,000 $150,000
$100,000 $100,000
$50,000 $50,000 Supply 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20142009 2015 2010 2016 2011 2017 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Boston National Boston National With strong population gains fueling demand in Boston, about 5,700 units have been delivered during the
11 009 010 012 013 014 015 016 017 11 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 009 010 012past013 18014 months.015 016 017 Developers are building on the momentum of the previous two years: 13,000 units were 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 completed in 2014 and 2015, 90% of which were in the Lifestyle segment. Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) Of the 18,0003.0% units under construction in the metro as of June, roughly 9,400 are expected to come online 3.0% this year. This would mark another cycle high for Boston, surpassing the 6,900 units delivered in 2015. Including2.0% planned and prospective developments, the pipeline adds more than 65,000 units. 2.0%
While new1.0% deliveries are spread across the map, the majority of them are located in core areas. The five 1.0% submarkets with more than 1,000 units underway are all relatively close to downtown: South Boston (1,733 units), North0.0% End–Charleston (1,542), Quincy (1,411), Malden (1,257) and East Boston–Chelsea (1,080). 0.0% Relying-1.0% on solid fundamentals, developers have been feeding the city’s pipeline with long-term projects. Of the five largest communities underway, VIA in the Seaport District is the only one scheduled for completion -1.0% in 2017. Bulfinch Crossing in Downtown Boston is slated to deliver its 800-unit residential component by September 2018, followed by Echelon Seaport (733 units) and 345 Harrison (585 units) in the South End. Boston National Boston vs. National Completions as a Percentage of Total Stock (as of June 2017) Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston) Boston National
3.5% Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston) 3.0% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.5% National Boston 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source:Supply: YardiMatrix Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston) National Boston
Development Pipeline (as of June 2017) Boston Completions (as of June 2017) Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston) Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston)
$300,000 17,870 Units 24,231 Units $250,000
$200,000 17,870 Units 24,231 Units $150,000 23,405 Units
$100,000
$50,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 23,405 Units Planned Prospective Under Construction
Boston National
Transactions: Total Volume (Boston)
$2,500 50 11 009 010 012 013 014 015 016 017 Planned Prospective Under Construction 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 $2,000 40
Transactions: Total Volume (Boston)Source: YardiMatrix Source: YardiMatrix Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) $1,500 30 $2,500 50 3.0% $1,000 20 $2,000 Boston Multifamily40 | Summer 2017 6 $500 10 $1,500 2.0% 30
$0 0 $1,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201620 2017 1.0% Volume in Millions Number of Properties $500 10
Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) 0.0% $0 8.0% 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
6.0% Volume in Millions Number of Properties -1.0%
Rent: YoY vs National (Boston) 4.0%
8.0% 2.0%
6.0% 0.0% Boston National
4.0% Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston) Boston National 2.0% 3.5%
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston) 0.0% 8.0% 3.0%
6.0% 2.5% 4.0% Boston National 2.0% 2.0% Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston)
8.0% 0.0% 1.5%
-2.0% 6.0% 1.0%
4.0% 0.5%
2.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity 0.0% 0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-2.0% National Boston
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston) Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
17,870 Units 24,231 Units
23,405 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Transactions: Total Volume (Boston)
$2,500 50
$2,000 40
$1,500 30
$1,000 20
$500 10
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Rent: YoY vs National (Boston)
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Boston National
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston)
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston)
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Boston National
9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 1 1 00 010 01 01 01 0 01 0 2 2 20 2 2 2 2 2 2
Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston)
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
Boston National
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Boston Transactions Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston)
Only $350 million in properties traded in the first half of 2017, well below the pace of the $4.2 billion traded in 2015 and 2016 combined. Demand has softened a bit, as some investors worry about paying top dollar in core markets at what might be the peak of the cycle. At the same time, the number of sellers has declined.
17,870 Units Boston continues to be a strong and stable market,24,231 Units with acquisition yields ranging from 4.5% for urban, Class A assets to 7.5% for suburban, value-add opportunities.
The average per-unit price was nearly $200,000 in the first half of 2017, down 15% from the prior year, due in part to a change in investor focus, 23,405with Units a shift from Class A assets to value-add opportunities in transit- accessible locations. The number of Lifestyle trasactions has continually dropped in the past few years, from 28 upscale assets trading in 2015 to 13 in 2016 and just one in the first half of 2017.
Planned Prospective Under Construction Boston Sales Volume and Number of Properties Sold (as of June 2017) Transactions: Total Volume (Boston)
$2,500 50
$2,000 40
$1,500 30
$1,000 20
$500 10
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Source:Rent: YardiMatrixYoY vs National (Boston) 8.0%
1 Top Submarkets6.0% for Transaction Volume Boston vs. National Sales Price per Unit Transactions: Price Per Unit (Boston)
Submarket Volume ($MM) $300,000 4.0%
Westwood 274 $250,000 Quincy2.0% 190 $200,000 Foxborough 174 0.0% $150,000 Derry 100 $100,000 Peabody 94 $50,000 South Boston 64 Boston National 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Lakeview 57 Boston National Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston) East Boston–Chelsea 56 8.0%
Source: YardiMatrix9 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Source: YardiMatrix 1 1 1 00 010 01 01 01 0 01 0 1 From 2July6.0% 20162 to20 June2 20172 2 2 2 2
4.0% Employment Growth: YoY 6mo-avg (Boston) 2.0% 3.0% 0.0%
-2.0% 2.0% Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 7
1.0% Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity
0.0%
-1.0%
Boston National
Supply: Percentage of Stock (Boston)
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
National Boston
Supply: Development Pipeline as of Jun 2017 (Boston)
17,870 Units 24,231 Units
23,405 Units
Planned Prospective Under Construction
Transactions: Total Volume (Boston)
$2,500 50
$2,000 40
$1,500 30
$1,000 20
$500 10
$0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume in Millions Number of Properties
Rent: YoY vs National (Boston)
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Boston National
Rent: Lifestyle vs RBN (Boston)
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Lifestyle Renter-by-Necessity Read All About It!
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Photo by Sean Pavone Photo/iStockphoto.com Boston Submarket
Area # Submarket Area # Submarket Area # Submarket Area # Submarket 1 Rochester 22 Southbridge–Webster 1 South Boston 24 Brockton 2 Dover 23 Northbridge 2 Mid Dorchester 25 Stoughton 3 Portsmouth 24 Milford 3 Roxbury 26 Westwood 4 Hampton 25 Woonsocket 4 Fenway Kenmore 27 Lakeview 5 Raymond–Newmarket 26 Northwest Rhode Island 5 South End 28 Woburn 6 Derry 27 Cumberland 6 Downtown Boston 29 Reading 7 Manchester–North 28 Attleboro 7 Dorchester 30 Lynn 8 Manchester–South 29 Providence–Northwest 8 Roslindale 31 Peabody 9 Salem 30 Providence–West 9 Brookline 32 Marshfield–Pembroke 10 Nashua 31 Cranston 10 Brighton 33 Bridgewater 11 Amherst 32 Providence–South 11 Cambridge–South 34 Mansfield–Foxborough 12 West Hillsborough 33 Providence–Central 12 North End–Charlestown 35 Framingham 13 Westminster 34 Providence–Northeast 13 Quincy 36 Marlborough 14 Townsend 35 Pawtucket 14 Milton 37 West Concord 15 Fitchburg–Leominster 36 Providence–East 15 Dedham 38 Tewksbury 16 Ayer 37 Fall River 16 Newton 39 Lowell 17 Clinton 38 Taunton 17 Waltham 40 Lawrence 18 Worcester–North 39 Middleborough 18 Cambridge–North 41 Andover 19 Shrewsbury–Westborough 40 New Bedford 19 Somerville 42 Haverhill 20 Worcester–South 41 Plymouth 20 Malden 43 Amesbury 21 Grafton 42 Wareham 21 East Boston–Chelsea 44 Ipswich 22 Cohasset 45 Gloucester 23 Waymouth
Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 9 Definitions
Lifestyle households (renters by choice) have wealth sufficient to own but have chosen to rent. Discretionary households, most typically a retired couple or single professional, have chosen the flexibility associated with renting over the obligations of ownership.
Renter-by-Necessity households span a range. In descending order, household types can be:
A young-professional, double-income-no-kids household with substantial income but without wealth needed to acquire a home or condominium;
Students, who also may span a range of income capability, extending from affluent to barely getting by;
Lower-middle-income (“gray-collar”) households, composed of office workers, policemen, firemen, technical workers, teachers, etc.;
Blue-collar households, which may barely meet rent demands each month and likely pay a disproportionate share of their income toward rent;
Subsidized households, which pay a percentage of household income in rent, with the balance of rent paid through a governmental agency subsidy. Subsidized households, while typically low income, may extend to middle-income households in some high-cost markets, such as New York City;
Military households, subject to frequency of relocation.
These differences can weigh heavily in determining a property’s ability to attract specific renter market segments. The five-star resort serves a very different market than the down-and-outer motel. Apartments are distinguished similarly, but distinctions are often not clearly definitive without investigation. TheYardi® Matrix Context rating eliminates that requirement, designating property market positions as:
Market Position Improvements Ratings Discretionary A+ / A High Mid-Range A- / B+ Low Mid-Range B / B- Workforce C+ / C / C- / D
The value in application of the Yardi® Matrix Context rating is that standardized data provides consistency; information is more meaningful because there is less uncertainty. The user can move faster and more efficiently, with more accurate end results.
The Yardi® Matrix Context rating is not intended as a final word concerning a property’s status—either improvements or location. Rather, the result provides reasonable consistency for comparing one property with another through reference to a consistently applied standard.
To learn more about Yardi® Matrix and subscribing, please visit www.yardimatrix.com or call Ron Brock, Jr., at 480-663-1149 x2404.
Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 10 What’s the best choice for CRE news & views?
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Boston Multifamily | Summer 2017 12