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Dragon Babies: Fortunes of Birth and Life Outcomes*

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Dragon Babies: Fortunes of Birth and Life Outcomes* DRAGON BABIES: FORTUNES OF BIRTH AND LIFE OUTCOMES* Sumit Agarwal Wenlan Qian Tien Foo Sing Poh Lin Tan ABSTRACT Using multiple sources of administrative data from the multicultural city state of Singapore, we study the life outcomes of large birth cohorts created by the Chinese superstitious practice of zodiac birth timing, where parents prefer to give birth in the year of the Dragon. This practice is followed exclusively by the Chinese majority—on average the number of births jumps by 8.8% in Dragon years among the Chinese majority, with no similar patterns detected among non- Chinese minorities. Chinese Dragon babies earn significantly lower income than other Chinese cohorts after entering the labor market (by 6.4%), relative to the income difference between Dragons and non-Dragons within the non-Chinese subpopulation. The adverse labor market outcome is unlikely to be the result of self-selection; rather it reflects the aggregate resource implications of substantially larger cohort sizes. We find a significant negative income effect for the non-Chinese born in Dragon years as well as other birth cohorts who happen to enter college (and labor market) at the same time as Chinese Dragons. The negative income effect partly arises from the rather inelastic labor demand. Despite efforts to increase public educational resources in response to the large cohorts, Dragon babies exhibit lower academic ability prior to university, suggesting limited capacity of such measures to accommodate the surge in demand for resources associated with larger birth cohorts. Keywords: Cohort Size, Cohort Effect, Fertility, Education, Income, Consumer Behavior, Superstition, Household Finance JEL Classification Codes: J21, J13 * Agarwal: Georgetown University, email: [email protected]. Qian: NUS Business School, National University of Singapore, email: [email protected]. Sing: Department of Real Estate, National University of Singapore, email: [email protected]. Tan: Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, email: [email protected]. We thank Nicolae Garleanu, Randall Morck, Ivan Png, David Reeb, Johan Sulaemon, and seminar participants at National University of Singapore for valuable feedback. The authors thank the Provost’s Office, National University of Singapore for providing administrative data. All errors are our responsibility. 1 I. Introduction We explore the consequences of the Chinese superstitious practice of zodiac birth timing in the multi-racial city state of Singapore. Chinese zodiacs follow a twelve-year cycle, and among the twelve animal signs in the Chinese zodiac, the Dragon carries an overwhelmingly positive image. Consequently, Chinese parents prefer to give birth in the year of the Dragon with the belief that children born under this sign are noble, long-lived and bound for success. We show that this cultural preference leads to sharp discontinuities in birth cohort size every twelve years. These unusually large birth cohort sizes in turn have a substantial impact on the exposed individuals’ economic well-being later in life. Estimating effects associated with (large) cohort size is empirically challenging. While a substantial literature has attempted to estimate the effects of birth cohort size on wages and employment, the existing analysis is typically based on entire population in a single birth cohort (e.g., baby boomers in the U.S. and Europe). As a result, researchers face various identification challenges such as confounding age and time effects, omitted variable bias, and issues of reverse causality. The limitations in the data and research design methods also restrict our ability to tease out the economic channels underlying cohort size effects. Singapore provides an ideal research setting due to its multi-racial composition with a Chinese majority (74% of population) and large Malay and Indian minorities (22% of population). Our identification strategy rests on the assumption that zodiac birth timing, where parents aim to give birth in the year of the Dragon, is practiced exclusively by the Chinese in Singapore, allowing other racial groups to provide viable counterfactuals. The data analysis supports this assumption, with no evidence that parents from other races seek to either target or avoid the year. We use a difference-in-differences model that controls for year and month of birth fixed effects as well as race-specific quadratic time trends, which sharpens our research design. Because of the twelve year cycle in Dragon birth cohorts, this setting also allows us to observe multiple “treated” cohorts during our sample period, providing another source of identification. We use four separate sources of novel administrative data from the city state of Singapore. The four datasets are as follows: (i) monthly birth data from January 1960 to December 2015 for each of the four official race categories (Chinese, Malay, Indian and Other), which are published by Singapore Statistics, (ii) data on (verified) customer monthly income, employment status, savings and transactional card activity collected by a leading bank in Singapore between April 2010 and March 2012, (iii) annual individual-level university admissions data for the two main local universities, the National University of Singapore and Nanyang Technological University, between 1981 and 2015, and (iv) administrative property transactions data and private residential housing transactional caveats obtained from local proprietary sources. Through the first dataset, we observe the fertility trends over time (for Chinese and non-Chinese). More importantly, we 2 have accurate information, at the individual level, on income, employment status, educational attainment, pre-tertiary educational success, outcome of the university applications, as well as consumption behavior and other demographic variables. We first document a significant spike in the number of Chinese births by 8.8% in the year of the Dragon, with no significant patterns detected among non-Chinese minorities. These unusual circumstances at birth produce statistically and economically significant effects on future labor market outcomes. Relative to the income difference between Dragons and non-Dragons among the non-Chinese population, Chinese Dragon babies earn incomes which are 6.4% lower than Chinese non-Dragons after they enter the labor market (the effect is statistically significant at 1%). Since Chinese parents tend to prefer giving birth in the year of the Dragon, a rival explanation for our results is that these differences in life outcomes are due to negative selection or differential parental treatment in response to the stereotypes. We use a variety of identification strategies to distinguish the cohort size effect from these alternative selection mechanisms. First, we find a significant negative income effect for the non-Chinese subpopulation born in Dragon years, suggesting spillover effects of large birth cohort sizes. Second, we use the variation caused by the national service mandate, which strictly requires all Singaporean males to perform two and a half years of national service, commonly between the ages of 19 and 22. Hence, even though Singaporean men and women born in the same year share similar early life environments, men enter university and the labor market with women who are two years younger than themselves. We show that women born in the year of the Horse, who are two years younger than Dragon men, have significantly lower earnings despite having similar levels of educational success as other cohorts, whereas there are no effects for their male counterparts. In addition, we find evidence that Dragon babies among Malaysian Chinese in Singapore earn higher wages. Malaysia is also a multiracial country that shares a great deal of cultural similarity with Singapore. On the other hand, Malaysia has a much lower proportion of Chinese in the population, so that any cohort size effects due to zodiac birth timing are likely to be weaker. Consistent with the demographic and sociological literature, our results suggest a positive, if any, selection effect, which points to the possibility that our main finding on income provides a lower bound of the true effect. To investigate the underlying economic mechanisms, we exploit the pairing of Dragon men with Horse women and the (partially) segmented labor market for different races in Singapore, likely due to employers’ demand for distinct language skills. We find that non-Chinese Horse women, who enter university together with Chinese Dragon men but compete in differentiated segments of the labor market, do not earn different incomes compared to non-Chinese born in other years. 3 This suggests that one of the channels for the cohort size effect on income is inelastic (or imperfectly elastic) labor demand in the presence of increased labor supply. We also consider the possibility that Dragon babies have lower acquired ability in pre-college years, potentially due to resource constraints. Consistent with this view, we find that Chinese Dragon babies are 2.3% less likely to be admitted to the two major local universities. More strikingly, the effects on admission chances are larger for admission to the bottom two tiers, suggesting that the cohort size effects affect marginal students more. To understand the lower admission chances for the Chinese Dragons, first we find no changes in the applicant pool composition for the Dragon birth cohorts – the number of applicants as a fraction of their birth cohort
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