Lectures on Statistics
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Applied Biostatistics Mean and Standard Deviation the Mean the Median Is Not the Only Measure of Central Value for a Distribution
Health Sciences M.Sc. Programme Applied Biostatistics Mean and Standard Deviation The mean The median is not the only measure of central value for a distribution. Another is the arithmetic mean or average, usually referred to simply as the mean. This is found by taking the sum of the observations and dividing by their number. The mean is often denoted by a little bar over the symbol for the variable, e.g. x . The sample mean has much nicer mathematical properties than the median and is thus more useful for the comparison methods described later. The median is a very useful descriptive statistic, but not much used for other purposes. Median, mean and skewness The sum of the 57 FEV1s is 231.51 and hence the mean is 231.51/57 = 4.06. This is very close to the median, 4.1, so the median is within 1% of the mean. This is not so for the triglyceride data. The median triglyceride is 0.46 but the mean is 0.51, which is higher. The median is 10% away from the mean. If the distribution is symmetrical the sample mean and median will be about the same, but in a skew distribution they will not. If the distribution is skew to the right, as for serum triglyceride, the mean will be greater, if it is skew to the left the median will be greater. This is because the values in the tails affect the mean but not the median. Figure 1 shows the positions of the mean and median on the histogram of triglyceride. -
Logistic Regression Trained with Different Loss Functions Discussion
Logistic Regression Trained with Different Loss Functions Discussion CS6140 1 Notations We restrict our discussions to the binary case. 1 g(z) = 1 + e−z @g(z) g0(z) = = g(z)(1 − g(z)) @z 1 1 h (x) = g(wx) = = w −wx − P wdxd 1 + e 1 + e d P (y = 1jx; w) = hw(x) P (y = 0jx; w) = 1 − hw(x) 2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 2.1 Goal Maximize likelihood: L(w) = p(yjX; w) m Y = p(yijxi; w) i=1 m Y yi 1−yi = (hw(xi)) (1 − hw(xi)) i=1 1 Or equivalently, maximize the log likelihood: l(w) = log L(w) m X = yi log h(xi) + (1 − yi) log(1 − h(xi)) i=1 2.2 Stochastic Gradient Descent Update Rule @ 1 1 @ j l(w) = (y − (1 − y) ) j g(wxi) @w g(wxi) 1 − g(wxi) @w 1 1 @ = (y − (1 − y) )g(wxi)(1 − g(wxi)) j wxi g(wxi) 1 − g(wxi) @w j = (y(1 − g(wxi)) − (1 − y)g(wxi))xi j = (y − hw(xi))xi j j j w := w + λ(yi − hw(xi)))xi 3 Least Squared Error Estimation 3.1 Goal Minimize sum of squared error: m 1 X L(w) = (y − h (x ))2 2 i w i i=1 3.2 Stochastic Gradient Descent Update Rule @ @h (x ) L(w) = −(y − h (x )) w i @wj i w i @wj j = −(yi − hw(xi))hw(xi)(1 − hw(xi))xi j j j w := w + λ(yi − hw(xi))hw(xi)(1 − hw(xi))xi 4 Comparison 4.1 Update Rule For maximum likelihood logistic regression: j j j w := w + λ(yi − hw(xi)))xi 2 For least squared error logistic regression: j j j w := w + λ(yi − hw(xi))hw(xi)(1 − hw(xi))xi Let f1(h) = (y − h); y 2 f0; 1g; h 2 (0; 1) f2(h) = (y − h)h(1 − h); y 2 f0; 1g; h 2 (0; 1) When y = 1, the plots of f1(h) and f2(h) are shown in figure 1. -
TR Multivariate Conditional Median Estimation
Discussion Paper: 2004/02 TR multivariate conditional median estimation Jan G. de Gooijer and Ali Gannoun www.fee.uva.nl/ke/UvA-Econometrics Department of Quantitative Economics Faculty of Economics and Econometrics Universiteit van Amsterdam Roetersstraat 11 1018 WB AMSTERDAM The Netherlands TR Multivariate Conditional Median Estimation Jan G. De Gooijer1 and Ali Gannoun2 1 Department of Quantitative Economics University of Amsterdam Roetersstraat 11, 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands Telephone: +31—20—525 4244; Fax: +31—20—525 4349 e-mail: [email protected] 2 Laboratoire de Probabilit´es et Statistique Universit´e Montpellier II Place Eug`ene Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier C´edex 5, France Telephone: +33-4-67-14-3578; Fax: +33-4-67-14-4974 e-mail: [email protected] Abstract An affine equivariant version of the nonparametric spatial conditional median (SCM) is con- structed, using an adaptive transformation-retransformation (TR) procedure. The relative performance of SCM estimates, computed with and without applying the TR—procedure, are compared through simulation. Also included is the vector of coordinate conditional, kernel- based, medians (VCCMs). The methodology is illustrated via an empirical data set. It is shown that the TR—SCM estimator is more efficient than the SCM estimator, even when the amount of contamination in the data set is as high as 25%. The TR—VCCM- and VCCM estimators lack efficiency, and consequently should not be used in practice. Key Words: Spatial conditional median; kernel; retransformation; robust; transformation. 1 Introduction p s Let (X1, Y 1),...,(Xn, Y n) be independent replicates of a random vector (X, Y ) IR IR { } ∈ × where p > 1,s > 2, and n>p+ s. -
5. the Student T Distribution
Virtual Laboratories > 4. Special Distributions > 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 5. The Student t Distribution In this section we will study a distribution that has special importance in statistics. In particular, this distribution will arise in the study of a standardized version of the sample mean when the underlying distribution is normal. The Probability Density Function Suppose that Z has the standard normal distribution, V has the chi-squared distribution with n degrees of freedom, and that Z and V are independent. Let Z T= √V/n In the following exercise, you will show that T has probability density function given by −(n +1) /2 Γ((n + 1) / 2) t2 f(t)= 1 + , t∈ℝ ( n ) √n π Γ(n / 2) 1. Show that T has the given probability density function by using the following steps. n a. Show first that the conditional distribution of T given V=v is normal with mean 0 a nd variance v . b. Use (a) to find the joint probability density function of (T,V). c. Integrate the joint probability density function in (b) with respect to v to find the probability density function of T. The distribution of T is known as the Student t distribution with n degree of freedom. The distribution is well defined for any n > 0, but in practice, only positive integer values of n are of interest. This distribution was first studied by William Gosset, who published under the pseudonym Student. In addition to supplying the proof, Exercise 1 provides a good way of thinking of the t distribution: the t distribution arises when the variance of a mean 0 normal distribution is randomized in a certain way. -
Regularized Regression Under Quadratic Loss, Logistic Loss, Sigmoidal Loss, and Hinge Loss
Regularized Regression under Quadratic Loss, Logistic Loss, Sigmoidal Loss, and Hinge Loss Here we considerthe problem of learning binary classiers. We assume a set X of possible inputs and we are interested in classifying inputs into one of two classes. For example we might be interesting in predicting whether a given persion is going to vote democratic or republican. We assume a function Φ which assigns a feature vector to each element of x — we assume that for x ∈ X we have d Φ(x) ∈ R . For 1 ≤ i ≤ d we let Φi(x) be the ith coordinate value of Φ(x). For example, for a person x we might have that Φ(x) is a vector specifying income, age, gender, years of education, and other properties. Discrete properties can be represented by binary valued fetures (indicator functions). For example, for each state of the United states we can have a component Φi(x) which is 1 if x lives in that state and 0 otherwise. We assume that we have training data consisting of labeled inputs where, for convenience, we assume that the labels are all either −1 or 1. S = hx1, yyi,..., hxT , yT i xt ∈ X yt ∈ {−1, 1} Our objective is to use the training data to construct a predictor f(x) which predicts y from x. Here we will be interested in predictors of the following form where β ∈ Rd is a parameter vector to be learned from the training data. fβ(x) = sign(β · Φ(x)) (1) We are then interested in learning a parameter vector β from the training data. -
The Central Limit Theorem in Differential Privacy
Privacy Loss Classes: The Central Limit Theorem in Differential Privacy David M. Sommer Sebastian Meiser Esfandiar Mohammadi ETH Zurich UCL ETH Zurich [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] August 12, 2020 Abstract Quantifying the privacy loss of a privacy-preserving mechanism on potentially sensitive data is a complex and well-researched topic; the de-facto standard for privacy measures are "-differential privacy (DP) and its versatile relaxation (, δ)-approximate differential privacy (ADP). Recently, novel variants of (A)DP focused on giving tighter privacy bounds under continual observation. In this paper we unify many previous works via the privacy loss distribution (PLD) of a mechanism. We show that for non-adaptive mechanisms, the privacy loss under sequential composition undergoes a convolution and will converge to a Gauss distribution (the central limit theorem for DP). We derive several relevant insights: we can now characterize mechanisms by their privacy loss class, i.e., by the Gauss distribution to which their PLD converges, which allows us to give novel ADP bounds for mechanisms based on their privacy loss class; we derive exact analytical guarantees for the approximate randomized response mechanism and an exact analytical and closed formula for the Gauss mechanism, that, given ", calculates δ, s.t., the mechanism is ("; δ)-ADP (not an over- approximating bound). 1 Contents 1 Introduction 4 1.1 Contribution . .4 2 Overview 6 2.1 Worst-case distributions . .6 2.2 The privacy loss distribution . .6 3 Related Work 7 4 Privacy Loss Space 7 4.1 Privacy Loss Variables / Distributions . -
The Probability Lifesaver: Order Statistics and the Median Theorem
The Probability Lifesaver: Order Statistics and the Median Theorem Steven J. Miller December 30, 2015 Contents 1 Order Statistics and the Median Theorem 3 1.1 Definition of the Median 5 1.2 Order Statistics 10 1.3 Examples of Order Statistics 15 1.4 TheSampleDistributionoftheMedian 17 1.5 TechnicalboundsforproofofMedianTheorem 20 1.6 TheMedianofNormalRandomVariables 22 2 • Greetings again! In this supplemental chapter we develop the theory of order statistics in order to prove The Median Theorem. This is a beautiful result in its own, but also extremely important as a substitute for the Central Limit Theorem, and allows us to say non- trivial things when the CLT is unavailable. Chapter 1 Order Statistics and the Median Theorem The Central Limit Theorem is one of the gems of probability. It’s easy to use and its hypotheses are satisfied in a wealth of problems. Many courses build towards a proof of this beautiful and powerful result, as it truly is ‘central’ to the entire subject. Not to detract from the majesty of this wonderful result, however, what happens in those instances where it’s unavailable? For example, one of the key assumptions that must be met is that our random variables need to have finite higher moments, or at the very least a finite variance. What if we were to consider sums of Cauchy random variables? Is there anything we can say? This is not just a question of theoretical interest, of mathematicians generalizing for the sake of generalization. The following example from economics highlights why this chapter is more than just of theoretical interest. -
Bayesian Classifiers Under a Mixture Loss Function
Hunting for Significance: Bayesian Classifiers under a Mixture Loss Function Igar Fuki, Lawrence Brown, Xu Han, Linda Zhao February 13, 2014 Abstract Detecting significance in a high-dimensional sparse data structure has received a large amount of attention in modern statistics. In the current paper, we introduce a compound decision rule to simultaneously classify signals from noise. This procedure is a Bayes rule subject to a mixture loss function. The loss function minimizes the number of false discoveries while controlling the false non discoveries by incorporating the signal strength information. Based on our criterion, strong signals will be penalized more heavily for non discovery than weak signals. In constructing this classification rule, we assume a mixture prior for the parameter which adapts to the unknown spar- sity. This Bayes rule can be viewed as thresholding the \local fdr" (Efron 2007) by adaptive thresholds. Both parametric and nonparametric methods will be discussed. The nonparametric procedure adapts to the unknown data structure well and out- performs the parametric one. Performance of the procedure is illustrated by various simulation studies and a real data application. Keywords: High dimensional sparse inference, Bayes classification rule, Nonparametric esti- mation, False discoveries, False nondiscoveries 1 2 1 Introduction Consider a normal mean model: Zi = βi + i; i = 1; ··· ; p (1) n T where fZigi=1 are independent random variables, the random errors (1; ··· ; p) follow 2 T a multivariate normal distribution Np(0; σ Ip), and β = (β1; ··· ; βp) is a p-dimensional unknown vector. For simplicity, in model (1), we assume σ2 is known. Without loss of generality, let σ2 = 1. -
Central Limit Theorem and Its Applications to Baseball
Central Limit Theorem and Its Applications to Baseball by Nicole Anderson A project submitted to the Department of Mathematical Sciences in conformity with the requirements for Math 4301 (Honours Seminar) Lakehead University Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada copyright c (2014) Nicole Anderson Abstract This honours project is on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). The CLT is considered to be one of the most powerful theorems in all of statistics and probability. In probability theory, the CLT states that, given certain conditions, the sample mean of a sufficiently large number or iterates of independent random variables, each with a well-defined ex- pected value and well-defined variance, will be approximately normally distributed. In this project, a brief historical review of the CLT is provided, some basic concepts, two proofs of the CLT and several properties are discussed. As an application, we discuss how to use the CLT to study the sampling distribution of the sample mean and hypothesis testing using baseball statistics. i Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. Li, who helped me by sharing his knowledge and many resources to help make this paper come to life. I would also like to thank Dr. Adam Van Tuyl for all of his help with Latex, and support throughout this project. Thank you very much! ii Contents Abstract i Acknowledgements ii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1. Historical Review of Central Limit Theorem 1 2. Central Limit Theorem in Practice 1 Chapter 2. Preliminaries 3 1. Definitions 3 2. Central Limit Theorem 7 Chapter 3. Proofs of Central Limit Theorem 8 1. -
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range
Notes Mean, Median, Mode & Range How Do You Use Mode, Median, Mean, and Range to Describe Data? There are many ways to describe the characteristics of a set of data. The mode, median, and mean are all called measures of central tendency. These measures of central tendency and range are described in the table below. The mode of a set of data Use the mode to show which describes which value occurs value in a set of data occurs most frequently. If two or more most often. For the set numbers occur the same number {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, of times and occur more often the mode is 1 because it occurs Mode than all the other numbers in the most frequently. set, those numbers are all modes for the data set. If each number in the set occurs the same number of times, the set of data has no mode. The median of a set of data Use the median to show which describes what value is in the number in a set of data is in the middle if the set is ordered from middle when the numbers are greatest to least or from least to listed in order. greatest. If there are an even For the set {1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10}, number of values, the median is the median is 3 because it is in the average of the two middle the middle when the numbers are Median values. Half of the values are listed in order. greater than the median, and half of the values are less than the median. -
A Unified Bias-Variance Decomposition for Zero-One And
A Unified Bias-Variance Decomposition for Zero-One and Squared Loss Pedro Domingos Department of Computer Science and Engineering University of Washington Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A. [email protected] http://www.cs.washington.edu/homes/pedrod Abstract of a bias-variance decomposition of error: while allowing a more intensive search for a single model is liable to increase The bias-variance decomposition is a very useful and variance, averaging multiple models will often (though not widely-used tool for understanding machine-learning always) reduce it. As a result of these developments, the algorithms. It was originally developed for squared loss. In recent years, several authors have proposed bias-variance decomposition of error has become a corner- decompositions for zero-one loss, but each has signif- stone of our understanding of inductive learning. icant shortcomings. In particular, all of these decompo- sitions have only an intuitive relationship to the original Although machine-learning research has been mainly squared-loss one. In this paper, we define bias and vari- concerned with classification problems, using zero-one loss ance for an arbitrary loss function, and show that the as the main evaluation criterion, the bias-variance insight resulting decomposition specializes to the standard one was borrowed from the field of regression, where squared- for the squared-loss case, and to a close relative of Kong loss is the main criterion. As a result, several authors have and Dietterich’s (1995) one for the zero-one case. The proposed bias-variance decompositions related to zero-one same decomposition also applies to variable misclassi- loss (Kong & Dietterich, 1995; Breiman, 1996b; Kohavi & fication costs. -
Global Investigation of Return Autocorrelation and Its Determinants
Global investigation of return autocorrelation and its determinants Pawan Jaina,, Wenjun Xueb aUniversity of Wyoming bFlorida International University ABSTRACT We estimate global return autocorrelation by using the quantile autocorrelation model and investigate its determinants across 43 stock markets from 1980 to 2013. Although our results document a decline in autocorrelation across the entire sample period for all countries, return autocorrelation is significantly larger in emerging markets than in developed markets. The results further document that larger and liquid stock markets have lower return autocorrelation. We also find that price limits in most emerging markets result in higher return autocorrelation. We show that the disclosure requirement, public enforcement, investor psychology, and market characteristics significantly affect return autocorrelation. Our results document that investors from different cultural backgrounds and regulation regimes react differently to corporate disclosers, which affects return autocorrelation. Keywords: Return autocorrelation, Global stock markets, Quantile autoregression model, Legal environment, Investor psychology, Hofstede’s cultural dimensions JEL classification: G12, G14, G15 Corresponding author, E-mail: [email protected]; fax: 307-766-5090. 1. Introduction One of the most striking asset pricing anomalies is the existence of large, positive, short- horizon return autocorrelation in stock portfolios, first documented in Conrad and Kaul (1988) and Lo and MacKinlay (1990). This existence of