CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE
Early Warning Issues for September 1 AU Post-Summit Analysis 14 Regional Security Analysis: Country Analysis: Rwanda 16 Al Shabaab’s rise as a regional and Year of Peace and Security: The international security threat 2 AU Advisory Council and Peace PSC Retrospective – PSC and Ambassadors 21 International Criminal Court (ICC) 9 Important Forthcoming Dates 23 Country Analysis: Burundi 11 No. 14, September 2010
This Report is an independent publication of the Institute for Security Studies. It is also available on the ISS website and can be viewed together with Thematic Reports on the work of the PSC at www.issafrica.org. All documents referred to in this Report can also be found on the ISS website. Peace and Security Council Protocol ‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. When required such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the PSC of the African Union
Early Warning Issues into the Horn of Africa and Eastern Rwanda African regions and beyond. With for September this, Al Shabaab marked yet another The 9 August polling day was stage in its evolution from a mainly praised by most observers as The scheduled Rotating Chair of nationalist insurgency movement generally peaceful and stable the African Union (AU) Peace into a truly global jihadist group. throughout the country. Specifically, and Security Council (PSC) the report of the AU observer for the month of September is Burundi mission declared that the electoral Equatorial Guinea. In the absence process in Rwanda was free and fair. of a country’s representation at The 24 May Communal elections Nevertheless, the election process, ambassadorial level, an alternate were generally peaceful and the atmosphere in which elections member will chair the Council for witnessed the remarkably well- took place, and the eventual the month. coordinated and active involvement outcome of the elections, were of local civil society. However, criticised and contested by many Al Shabaab’s rise as a regional during the announcement of the of Kagame’s opponents. Giving and international security threat provisional results of these elections, credence to these allegations, various opposition parties, including the months prior to the elections The 7/11 bombings in the Ugandan the FNL and Front for Democracy witnessed a series of attacks, capital Kampala, targeting innocent in Burundi (FRODEBU), announced including killings and arrests, on out- civilians, has drawn conspicuous their rejection of the results, which spoken journalists and opposition attention to the protracted conflict pointed to a landslide victory for figures. in Somalia. The tragic event the incumbent ruling party. The highlighted the deteriorating prospect for the consolidation of security situation in Somalia and peace and stability in Burundi very its expansion into the countries of much depends on the course of the region. It is a clear signal that action that the various opposition Al Shabaab is capable of and has parties that remain outside the begun taking its terrorist attacks process choose to take to address beyond the borders of Somalia their respective concerns.
Livingstone Formula ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/ PR/(CLX), 5 December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of interaction between the Council and CSOs.
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actions as threats, not only to the contributing country for the AU REGIONAL SECURITY peace and reconciliation process in AMISOM. Accordingly, he warned ANALYSIS Somalia, but also to regional peace that ‘if they (Uganda and Burundi) and international security. do not take out their AMISOM troops from Somalia, (similar) blasts will continue.’ Al Shabaab’s rise as a regional Previously, in its communiqué of 18 and international security threat February 2009, PSC/PR/BR (CLXX), the PSC noted, albeit without This act of terror came after The 7/11 bombings in the Ugandan naming Al Shabaab, that the acts of repeated threats of an attack or capital Kampala, targeting innocent violence in Somalia ‘undermine the attacks against the two countries. civilians, has drawn conspicuous peace process and stability in the One week before the attack, Sheikh attention to the protracted conflict region as a whole’. Mukhtar Robow Ali, the spiritual in Somalia. The tragic event leader and main spokesperson of Al highlighted the deteriorating Crisis escalation potential Shabaab, called for attacks against security situation in Somalia and Uganda and Burundi. Before the Sheik’s statement, Al Shabaab’s its expansion into the countries of On Sunday evening the 11th of July media arm, al Kataib, Al Shabaab the region. It is a clear signal that 2010, many people were gathered released an English-language video, Al Shabaab is capable of and has in the Ethiopian Village Restaurant directing ‘(the) Mujahideen to make begun taking its terrorist attacks and Kayandodo Rugby Club in the Ugandans their priority (for beyond the borders of Somalia the Ugandan capital, Kampala, to attacks)’. into the Horn of Africa and Eastern watch the concluding 2010 World African regions and beyond. Cup Match between Spain and the Netherlands. Minutes before The 7/11 bombings in Kampala showed Al Shabaab has the ability This vicious act of violence and the end of the match, three bombs to launch a deadly attack, not only the bigger threat that it represents, exploded at the two venues. against countries contributing both to Somalia and the region, The first bomb detonated at the soldiers and military equipment to has prompted regional, continental Ethiopian Restaurant among a AMISOM but also the countries of and international condemnation. crowd of Ugandans, Ethiopians, the region, and indeed illustrated the More importantly, it also provoked Eritreans, Europeans and Americans susceptibility of these countries to high-level discussions on the best and the other two exploded at the such attacks. In future, Al Shabaab possible measures that the AU and Rugby club. may employ a variety of tactics the sub-regional body IGAD may to mount its attacks in the region. take in collaboration with members The picture that emerged was a First, it has the potential to radicalise of the international community. disturbing scene of young civilians, Muslims, particularly Somalis, by killed while sitting peacefully in exploiting their grievances and using white plastic chairs to watch a In a press statement issued on 12 them to launch further attacks in the sporting event, some with their July 2010, the AU Commission region. It is also possible that the bodies torn apart and others with Chairperson, Jean Ping, condemned group may use desperate dissident their drinks still on their laps. In this the terrorist attacks in Kampala in groups or vulnerable individuals to deadliest attack in the history of Al the strongest terms. He also said perpetrate more attacks. One cannot Shabaab and the first such attack it that the tragic incident would give also dismiss the possibility that Al had engineered outside Somalia, 76 impetus to reinforce international Shabaab could send suicide bombers innocent civilians lost their lives and coordination to counter terrorism to the countries in the region. and reinforce the collective resolve many more suffered injuries, some of African states against acts of of them life-changing. Al Shabaab has since been terrorism. In a decision taken at the expanding its jihadist campaign 15th Ordinary Summit, Assembly/ Somalia’s extremist group, Al against the TFG and AMISOM AU/Dec. 294 (XV). 2, the AU Shabaab, which is fighting against and has called on businesses in Assembly similarly condemned ‘the the TFG and the AU Mission Mogadishu, Afgooye and Baidoa despicable terrorist attacks claimed in Somalia, AMISOM, claimed to make huge financial and military by Al Shabaab, that were committed responsibility for the attacks. contributions. Since the 7/11 in Kampala, on 11 July 2010, against In a statement to reporters bombings it has also intensified the innocent civilians.’ While calling on in Mogadishu, Al Shabaab’s fighting in Somalia. It was reported AU member states and the entire spokesperson, Ali Mohamoud Rage, that 52 people died and 129 others international community to isolate declared that: ‘We (Al Shabaab) are were injured in the fighting that took and take all necessary measures behind the attack because we are at place to the north of Mogadishu a against individuals, entities and war with them.’ According to Rage, week after the bombings. states engaged in terrorist acts, this was a retaliatory attack against the Assembly considered such Uganda, which is the major troop- >>page 3
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On 24 August 2010, Al Shabaab This risk is heightened due to the When the Ethiopian troops left carried out a deadly attack in the terror networks that Al-Shabaab Somalia in early 2009, Al Shabaab Capital, Mogadishu, against the TFG. has established and the effective expanded its territorial control Its fighters, disguised as government radicalisation campaign that the to include Baidoa, where the security forces, walked into the Huna organisation is executing in order TFG parliament was based and Hotel in Mogadishu’s Hamarweyne to galvanise support among Somalis Jowhar, which was one of the district and shot on people in the in the diaspora and within extremist TFG’s strongholds. In 2009, Al Hotel indiscriminately before they groups. Shabaab emerged as the strongest detonated suicide bombs blowing armed military group in Somalia themselves up and the hotel. In the and assumed control over much of Key issues and internal dynamics attacks, some 40 people lost their southern and central Somalia and lives, including six members of the much of the capital, Mogadishu, Somali Parliament and five TFG Although the origin of Al Shabaab including key locations such as the soldiers. The fact that Al Shabaab is can be traced to the 1970s when northern and north-eastern parts able to execute such deadly attacks militant Islamist groups emerged of the city, the main stadium, and in an area generally considered to be in opposition to Siad Barre’s Mogadishu’s major market, the safe and under the control of TFG brutality against religious leaders in Bakara market. is indicative of the laxity of the TFG Somalia, its immediate emergence is and AMISOM security system. A associated with the rise to political Al Shabaab has deployed two day before this incident, Al Shabaab prominence of the Islamic Courts ideologies as a basis for its declared it would launch new attacks Union (ICU) in 2006. When the ICU legitimacy and for mobilising against the TFG and AMISOM. defeated US backed warlords in support for its armed rebellion. Acting on its threat, Al Shabaab June 2006 and established its rule The first is Somali nationalism. The conducted an offensive against the in southern and central Somalia in intervention of Ethiopian troops TFG for more than four consecutive the following months, Al Shabaab in Somalia triggered a wave of days triggering further civilian deaths served as the military wing of the radical nationalist sentiment among and displacement. On 30 August ICU. It was in the aftermath of the Somalis. Al Shabaab appropriated 2010, a mortar that Al Shabaab defeat of the ICU by the TFG and the nationalist agenda to galvanise launched against the presidential Ethiopian forces in early 2007, in public support for its insurgent palace killed four AMISOM soldiers the course of the insurgency, that operations and advance its extremist from Uganda. Al Shabaab emerged as a force agenda in Somalia and beyond. distinct from the ICU. While the ICU The regional dimension of Al leadership fled Somalia, Al Shabaab The second ideology is political Shabaab’s fighting also seems to launched an insurgency against Islam. Al Shabaab claims to be a be intensifying. On the border the TFG and Ethiopian troops and defendant and champion of genuine with Kenya, Al Shabaab not only assumed the role of leading ‘the Islam and has advanced political deployed additional fighters but struggle’ to free Somalia from what Islam as the most viable alternative also called the local population to it called ‘occupying forces’. for establishing order and stability in embark on a jihad against Kenya. Somalia. Accordingly, in the regions Unlike previous skirmishes, on 20 From the first quarter of 2008, under its control, Al Shabaab July 2010 significant fighting took Al Shabaab’s insurgency started introduced a strict version of Sharia place between Kenyan security to show results in dislodging the associated with Salafi-wahhibism forces and Al Shabaab forces TFG from territories such as the and a form of governance akin following a gun-fight that wounded Hiran, Middle and Lower Juba, to that practiced by the Taliban. a Kenyan officer. Highlighting the Shebelle and Bay regions. On 22 It prohibited various activities increased vulnerability of the TFG August 2008, Al Shabaab took including movies, the watching of and AMISOM forces, Ethiopia control of the strategic port city football, chewing of Khat, certain reportedly reinforced its military of Kismayo. In September 2008, styles of dressing and so on. These presence on the border with consolidating their control, Al prohibitions and other Sharia- Somalia and some of its troops Shabaab forces established a Sharia- based rules are enforced using even crossed into Somalia in late based administration in the Lower draconian punishments including August as Al Shabaab intensified Juba region. In November 2008, public floggings, head shavings, its offensive against the TFG for a Al Shabaab forces pushed further amputation and even stoning number of days. from Kismayo and captured Merka, ‘transgressors’ to death. which they used as a base to launch Al Shabaab has the capability of attacks on Mogadishu. In late Al Shabaab’s tendency to enforce acting on its threats. Consequently, November, Al Shabaab forces were religious homogeneity in Somalia there is high potential for the crisis in control of most strategic towns in also displayed intolerance of, and to escalate, both within Somalia Lower Shebelle and those suburbs and in the region as a whole. in north-eastern Mogadishu. >>page 4
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violence against, Sufism, Somalia’s radicalisation and its global-jihadist patchwork of factions that control most dominant form of Sunni Islam tendencies. In the course of this various parts of Somalia but that involves the establishment of process not only did Al Shabaab operate under the Al Shabaab religious sites for saints and revered declare its ideological affinity with banner. Its forces include various religious leaders and the holding of the global terrorist organisation, elements such as opportunist periodic rituals. In 2008, Al Shabaab al-Qaeda, but it also moved to fighters attracted by financial began a campaign of demolishing establish stronger links with the rewards, Somali nationalists, Sufi shrines and tombs of holy men latter. Expanding on its rhetoric of Islamic groups and global jihadists. as well as executing Sufi clerics links with international terrorism Although it has increasingly become in Kismayo, and since then it has networks, Al Shabaab announced more organised and centralised, expanded this campaign to other in February this year that it was particularly since 2009, the exact areas, including Mogadishu. forming an alliance with al-Qaeda. number of Al Shabaab troops is unknown. The 2010 UN Monitoring Group Report estimated that Al In early 2009, the twin This also affected the nature of Shabaab comprised no more than developments of the withdrawal of Al Shabaab’s insurgency and the 2500 hardcore fighters and a large means and method of warfare that it Ethiopian troops and the election number of local armed militias employs. Al Shabaab is responsible of Sheikh Sharief Sheik Ahmed, the affiliated to it. Apart from its force for the introduction of terror leader of ICU in 2006, as the new size, Al Shabaab’s military capability tactics to the conflict in Somalia, president of the newly expanded includes assault rifles, general more particularly suicide and car TFG, dealt a serious blow to Al purpose machine guns, rocket- bombings, acts that are frowned Shabaab’s sources of legitimacy. propelled grenades, P-10 recoilless upon in Somali culture. Since the With the Ethiopian troops gone, Al rifles, and light anti-aircraft weapons five suicide bombings in Northern Shabaab lost the major target that adapted for ground combat. The Somalia in October 2008, the use of inspired Somali nationalism, the group also has a special operations suicide bombers by Al Shabaab has source of its public support. When unit consisting of an explosives increased. On 22 February 2009, Al President Sharief introduced Sharia brigade that sets up IED traps Shabaab suicide bombers detonated law, it presented further challenges and an assassination brigade. The bombs inside a Burundi contingent to Al Shabaab’s Islamic ideology group also operates various training camp followed by mortar attacks. and to the cohesion of the group. camps, including training for The incident claimed the lives of potential suicide-bombers. eleven AMISOM troops and injured In response Al Shabaab shifted its fifteen others. In the deadliest target to the TFG and its leadership suicide attacks against AMISOM The increased boldness of Al as well as the AMISOM forces thus far, on 17 September 2009, Al Shabaab in the course of 2009 mandated to protect strategic Shabaab used a UN vehicle to enter and 2010, while the international locations and TFG institutions. It an AMISOM base in Mogadishu community was watching, the designated the TFG leadership as a and killed seventeen AMISOM intensification of its fighting against puppet of western powers and their troops, including the deputy force the TFG and AMISOM forces allies and AMISOM as an occupying commander and wounded twenty- and notably the 7/11 bombings in force. Al Shabaab also discredited nine others. Kampala, suggest that Al Shabaab is President Sharif’s Islamic credentials becoming more like Al Qaeda and and religious commitment, labelling that its force strength has increased him an ‘apostate’. Mortar attacks and artillery shells and its reach has expanded. Al have become most common as Shabaab has attracted hundreds of well as the use of anti-tank rocket- foreign fighters including veteran The group also became more propelled grenades (RPGs) against radicalised by entrenching its insurgents from Iraq, Afghanistan armoured vehicles. Al Shabaab and Pakistan. ultraconservative interpretation of forces are also increasingly using Sharia and assuming a more global sniper fire and improvised explosive jihadist orientation. As it emerged, devices (IEDs), reminiscent of the Initially, Al Shabaab benefited Al Shabaab’s medium term political insurgencies in Iraq and Afganistan. from significant public support objective was to defeat the TFG for resisting Ethiopian troops and and AMISOM forces and establish received support from Eritrea. Al an Islamic state as a foundation The 7/11 bombings in Kampala Shabaab is also believed to receive for eventually establishing a denoted another stage in the support from the Middle East. Early single Islamic Caliphate. The evolution of Al Shabaab from a mainly in January 2010, the Somali Defense rise of foreign fighters within nationalist insurgency movement into Minister, Sheikh Yusuf Mohammad the ranks of Al Shabaab and the a global jihadist group. Siad, reported that two boats subsequent assumption by foreign originating from Yemen, carrying jihadists of key leadership roles Al Shabaab, like Al Qaeda, is not further exacerbated Al Shabaab’s a monolithic entity. It is rather a >>page 5
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military logistics equipment, port in Kismayo, at roadblocks encountered serious challenges of light weapons, Kalashnikov rifles, in the territories they control, implementation. ammunition, and hand grenades, and from businesses and NGOs had docked in the port of Kismayo, distributing aid, as reported by the Many of the institutions of the which Al Shabaab controls. UN Sanctions Committee. They also divert aid from organisations TFG, including the Parliament, are barely functioning and hardly To sustain its fighting and such as the FAO. In addition, Al Shabaab benefits from remittances institutionalised. The current TFG consolidate its control over the also seems to have inherited all territories under its administration, that the Somali Diaspora sends the disorders and failings of its Al Shabaab recruits new fighters, to the country. Funds are also predecessor. It lacks legitimacy both from within and from outside raised directly from its supporters and it also suffers from in-fighting Somalia. Within Somalia, it uses a in the Diaspora and from foreign combination of financial rewards organizations with which it has and the leadership crisis that and intimidation to induce new close links. bedevilled Abdulahi Yusuf’s tenure fighters to join its ranks. The group and his eventual departure. On also relies on the implementation of Al Shabaab’s control of Somali 17 May 2010, a power struggle strict Sharia rules and the provision air space and some of the most with the Prime Minister led to of community services as well important sea-ports as well as the resignation of the Speaker of as Somali nationalist and Islamic Somalia’s porous borders with Parliament. Although this prompted rhetoric. It uses local radio stations, neighboring countries, facilitates all President Sheik Sharief Ahmed to newspapers and religious occasions these activities and serves to ensure announce the dismissal of Prime to reach out to the public for the access to key supply routes. Minister Sharmarke, who refused to purpose of winning and maintaining resign, the president later withdrew public support. The military strength and the public his decision. In June 2010, four relations campaign of Al Shabaab, ministers resigned from Sharif’s One of the most significant support in many ways, stand in contrast to government, protesting against bases for Al Shabaab is the Somali that of the TFG. The TFG not only the election, on 28 May 2010, Diaspora. It is estimated that two to commands an inadequate number of former finance minister Sharif three million Somalis live abroad, of troops but its security forces are Hassan Sheikh Aden, as speaker of mainly in Kenya, Yemen, the UK, also not well equipped, well trained parliament. the US, Scandinavian countries or well organised. According to and the Netherlands. Al Shabaab the report of the UN Monitoring penetrated the Somali Diaspora not Group, the Somali security sector These weaknesses and failures and only to raise funds but also to lure also suffers from a lack of proper the staunch defence that AMISOM young ethnic Somalis from foreign organisation and has an inadequate provided for the TFG have countries to join its ranks. As the chain of command. This is further doubtlessly given Al Shabaab the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia compounded by a lack of the space and the motivation to plan reported, over the course of 2008 means and administrative capacity and launch its first foreign attack and 2009 many young Somali men for sustaining newly recruited against Uganda, the major troop- and women continue to be induced TFG forces. For its survival, the contributing country to AMISOM. to join the rank and file of Al TFG continues to depend on the Uganda also hosts the EU Training Shabaab. The group has deployed assistance that it receives from Mission that is responsible for an effective media strategy. AMISOM. training TFG security forces. The aggressively using the internet, CDs 7/11 bombings in Kampala are and video tapes. It has also used TFG’s public relations campaign various Somali youth associations, a clear signal by Al Shabaab to and outreach strategy to mobilise the countries in the region. The Mosques and Somali religious support from Somalis within and leaders to indoctrinate young event brought into sharp relief the outside Somalia has also not been question of whether the threat Somalis in the West and facilitate sufficiently aggressive to be able to posed by Al Shabaab has been their travel to join its forces. Al successfully counter Al Shabaab’s treated with the seriousness it Shabaab has also managed to attract message. With the early 2009 non-Somali foreign fighters, not only optimism long gone, TFG has deserves. The bombings also from the Middle East and Asia but not been able to transform itself exposed the limits of the largely also from the West, including the into an all inclusive and cohesive military-oriented approach of the United States. government. The progress made international community, involving to achieve reconciliation has military support to the TFG and They fund their operations been very modest. The much- attempts to weaken Al Shabaab. through a variety of means. They publicised agreement signed with collect taxes on imports from the Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) has >>page 6
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Geo-political Dynamics IGAD has been at the forefront as its ability to reduce the amount of efforts to resolve the conflict in of collateral damage that its counter In the context of the 7/11 bombings, Somalia, not least because member attacks against Al Shabaab have the conflict in Somalia dominated countries are directly affected reportedly inflicted upon civilians. the agenda of the 15th ordinary by the conflict. On 5 July 2010, This is very critical. While AMISOM session of the AU Assembly of IGAD held the 15th extra-ordinary may use force pre-emptively, great Heads of State and Government. session of the IGAD Assembly of care should be taken to secure the Although the call of IGAD member Heads of State and Government confidence of the local populace states, led by Uganda’s President in the Ethiopian capital, Addis by maintaining an approach that Yoweri Musevini, for a sweeping Ababa, to consider the political is respectful of civilians and their action against the terrorists, and security situation in Somalia. In property. Any force that intimidates did not succeed, it was agreed the communiqué issued at the end the public may ultimately push the that additional troops would be of the session, the IGAD Assembly public further into the hands of deployed and AMISOM would expressed its serious concerns over Al Shabaab. Without the support receive further support to enhance the deteriorating security situation of the Somali public, AMISOM is in Somalia and the escalating danger unlikely to succeed in defeating its capabilities. The pay rise for to Somalia and the sub-Region. The Al Shabaab forces, regardless of AMISOM troops, long advocated IGAD Assembly also decided to AMISOM’s changed tactics or by the Force Commander, deploy the additional 2000 troops increased numbers. Reducing also received support with the necessary to bring AMISOM to civilian casualties should therefore announcement by Jean Ping and the its mandated force size and to this be a critical objective of AMISOM. SRSG Ambassador Mahiga, that the end called on the AU to mobilise remuneration for AMISOM troops the necessary resources, logistics would be increased to the same UN Dynamics and equipment for the required levels as UN missions. deployment. In a press statement it issued about In its decision, Assembly/AU/Dec. the Kampala bombings on 12 July There is no doubt that reinforcing 2010, , the UN Security 294 (XV). 2, the Assembly approved SC/9980 AMISOM has the potential of Council condemned the attacks in the IGAD ‘initiative to enable allowing it to expand its areas the strongest terms and called on AMISOM to achieve its mandated of operation and thereby create all states to assist in efforts to bring force strength of 8100 troops (and) enhanced chances for stabilising all the perpetrators of the attacks to mandated the AU Commission to wider areas of Somalia. As past justice. The Council also reiterated initiate planning for the new phases experiences in Somalia repeatedly its determination to combat all forms of the deployment of AMISOM.’ showed, a military approach, alone, of terrorism in accordance with the Acting on the request of IGAD, is inadequate and usually counter Charter of the UN. Similarly, the UN the Assembly also requested the productive. It cannot and should Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, AU Chairperson to appoint a not be the primary approach. condemned what he called ‘vicious’ high level personality to galvanise Military actions will only succeed bombings and expressed his hopes international support for, and focus in concert with efforts in national that the perpetrators of the act attention on, Somalia and motivate reconciliation, in the provision of would be brought to justice. the engagement of the Somali basic services, in dealing with the population in the processes of humanitarian crisis, in building Another recent development with governance. effective institutions and in reversing the potential to have a positive the radicalisation campaign of impact on developments in Somalia Al Shabaab and ultimately in AU member states showed strong is the appointment of Ambassador neutralizing the radical terrorist support for expanding AMISOM. Augustin Mahiga as the new Special elements within Al Shabaab. Other than IGAD member states, Representative of the Secretary- Guinea also pledged to contribute General (SRSG) of the UN. Since he troops to AMISOM. Some issues The anticipated reinforcement of assumed his responsibilities in late are still outstanding and the AU AMISOM with new troops and new June, he has been active in drawing has indicated an interest in lifting rules of engagement, that allow attention to the deteriorating the mandated force strength of for pre-emptive attacks, present security situation. Most importantly, AMISOM from its current 8100 serious dangers. Such approaches he initiated a more determined troops and permitting countries may deepen the perception that discussion to relocate his office, bordering Somalia to contribute AMISOM is an occupying force and the United Nations Political troops to AMISOM. One important hence provoke resentment of the Office for Somalia (UNPOS), from challenge in this regard is the mission among Somalis. Along with Nairobi to Mogadishu. This will danger that such changes would increasing the number of AMISOM have an important impact in terms further compromise the standing of troops, there is a need to enhance AMISOM as a peacekeeping force. its outreach and public image as well >>page 7
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of enabling the TFG to achieve indictments would ‘shed further Scenario Planning cohesion and in its collaboration light on a deadly pipeline that has with the operations of AMISOM. routed funding and fighters’ to Al In the context of the above Shabaab. developments, the following When discussion on the expansion scenarios could unfold. of the mandate of AMISOM arose In the discussion on the call for during the 15th summit of the AU expanding AMISOM’s mandate, Scenario 1: Assembly, Ambassador Mahiga was the US was at the forefront of among those who argued that the those who rejected any expansion Al Shabaab is expected to intensify current mandate of AMISOM was of the existing mandate. The US its fighting against the TFG and broad enough to allow AMISOM to nevertheless expressed its support AMISOM. It will thus launch attacks undertake what was required. It was for the decision to deploy further not only to further weaken the TFG reported that the understanding troops to AMISOM. The US also and AMISOM but also in an effort that emerged was that new rules of provides military support to the to win additional territory from engagement could be formulated TFG. Since May 2009, it has the TFG and possibly overwhelm in a way to allow AMISOM to supplied the TFG with at least 80 it before the arrival of AMISOM’s take pre-emptive attacks against tons of arms, mostly small arms and additional troop reinforcements. the insurgents where it received ammunition. credible information that Al Shabaab was preparing to launch an attack. Scenario 2: Ambassador Mahiga supported the The EU and the UK also expressed decision to reinforce AMISOM with their support for additional troop In response to the recent decision the deployment of additional forces. deployment. The EU is currently to send additional troops to He expressed the view that the UN running a mission in Uganda with Somalia, Al Shabaab may expand would provide logistical support a mandate to train Somali security its campaign to depict AMISOM as and other requirements for putting forces. The Mission, composed of an occupying force and a tool for additional troops on the ground. 140 military trainers, is set to train anti-Somali forces. This would be a total of 2000 recruits in a period an attempt to awaken resentment of one year. The EU also provides It is yet to be seen whether or not of the mission among Somalis at funding for AMISOM. In the context the UNSC will respond to the call home and within the Diaspora. Al of the discussion on pay rises for for increasing the current mandated Shabaab may also decide to urge AMISOM troops, the EU indicated size of AMISOM and for mandating Somalis and foreign jihadists to join the deployment of a UN mission that it has the funding required to its insurgency and to launch further that can take over from AMISOM. increase the pay of AU soldiers attacks against countries in the to the same level as UN troops. region. The EU also pledged to provide Wider International airlift support for the deployment Community Dynamics of additional troops. Additionally, Scenario 3: on 28 July the EU announced it The US has a strong interest in would contribute 35 million Euros As the targets of the 7/11 bombings the conflict in Somalia. In April for humanitarian aid projects in were innocent civilians rather than 2010, President Obama issued Somalia. On the issue of raising soldiers or government installations, an Executive Order that imposed the current limit on the mandated the division within Al Shabaab sanctions against Somali rebel force size of AMISOM, the UK also and the opposition against it, groups and their supporters.. The reportedly expressed support in this most notably from the moderate Executive Order called for the regard. Sufi group, Ahlu Sunna Waljama’a freezing of the US-based financial (ASJW), which signed a power assets of Somali insurgents, sharing agreement with the TFG pirates and their supporters. In the Despite the attention the 7/11 in March 2010, may substantially aftermath of the 7/11 bombings, the bombings drew to the conflict in expand. The domination of Al US extended support to Uganda for Somalia, from the international Shabaab’s command by foreign the investigation of the bombings community, it is clear that this jihadists and Al Shabaab’s and sent FBI agents to Kampala. increased attention has not gone increasingly radical tendencies, On 5 August 2010, the US Attorney far enough to lead to substantive involving indiscriminate attacks General, Eric Holder, announced in changes in the approach of the against innocent Somali civilians, a press conference that 14 people international community toward the may also lead to rising dissent within including a number of US citizens conflict. There has thus been no the group and attract further public had been arrested for seeking to debate at all about the possibility opposition. join or provide aid to Al Shabaab. of replacing AMISOM with a more According to Eric Holder, the robust UN force. >>page 8
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Early Response Options Option 4: Statement of the Consultative Meeting of the African Union In the light of the above potential The PSC could also repeat its call Troop Contributing Countries to the UN Security Council for scenarios the following options (TCCs) to AMISOM and the imposition of an air and sea or combination of them are International Partners on Somalia, blockade in order to disrupt Al conceivable for early response: Addis Ababa, 2 November 2009. Shabaab’s use of Somalia’s air space and sea-ports for its supplies. While Option 1: raising the mandated force level PSC/PR/COMM.2 (CLXXIX) of AMISOM, the PSC could also (15 June 2009) Report of The PSC could call for the speedy expand the mandate of AMISOM the Chairperson of the AU deployment of the additional to include the protection of civilians Commission on the Situation in AMISOM troops to Somalia and and play a more active role in Somalia could request AU partners to reaching out to the public in terms support the AU Commission in its of civilian security and support PSC/PR/Comm.(CXC) (22 May against Al Shabaab. efforts to facilitate the deployment. 2009) Communiqué of the PSC Alongside this, the PSC could on the outcome of the Thirty- also decide that AMISOM should third Extraordinary Session of the develop and implement a robust Documentation: IGAD Council of Ministers on and effective public relations and Somalia outreach campaign for which Relevant AU Documents AMISOM Headquarters would PSC/PR/2(CLXXVII) (11 March need to move from Nairobi to 2009) Report of the Chairperson Assembly/AU/Dec. 294 (XV) 2. Mogadishu. on the situation in Somalia Decision of the 15th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly of Option 2: Heads of State and Government PSC/PR/Comm.(CLXXVII) (11 on the Report of the Peace and March 2009) Communiqué on The PSC could lift the cap on the Security Council on its Activities the situation in Somalia AMISOM force level and request and the State of Peace and the UNSC to approve an increase Security in Africa, PSC/PR/BR(CLXVII) (21 January of the mandated troop level of 2009) Statement on the situation AMISOM. In tandem with this in Somalia AU Commission Press Release approach, the PSC could call on of 12 July 2010 on the Kampala AU member states to contribute Bombings PSC/MIN/4(CLXIII) Report of the additional troops and resources Chairperson of the Commission and could request the Commission on the situation in Somalia to approach potential troop- AU Commission Press Statement contributing countries and countries of 15 March 2010 on the Signing PSC/MIN/Comm.4 (CLXIII) (22 with air and naval capabilities and of the Framework for Cooperation December 2008) Communiqué develop a strategy to encourage Agreement Between Somalia on the situation in Somalia those countries to make their troops Transitional Federal Government and resources available. (TFG) and Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama’a (ASWJ) REC Documents: Option 3: Inter-governmental Authority PSC/PR/BR.(CCXVII) (25 February on Development (IGAD) (5 2010) Press Statement of the In collaboration with other actors, July 2010) Communiqué of the the Council could also call on 217th Meeting of the PSC 15th Extra-Ordinary Session of AMISOM to play a more active role the IGAD Assembly of Heads in supporting TFG reconciliation PSC/PR/Comm(CCXIV) (8 of State and Government on efforts for winning the support January 2010) Communiqué of Somalia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia of the public as well as providing the 214th Meeting of the PSC much needed services in this Inter-governmental Authority regard. The PSC may also call for PSC/PR/2 (CCXIV) (8 January on Development (IGAD) the full implementation of the 2010) Report of the Chairperson Communiqué of the thirty-third agreement between the TFG and of the Commission on the ASWJ and identify required support Situation in Somalia for achieving this end. >>page 9
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Extra-Ordinary Session (Extra- SC/Res 1907 (23 December S/RES/1863 (16 January 2009) ordinary No.3) of the IGAD 2009) Resolution Imposing Renewed authorisation of Council of Ministers on the Sanctions on Eritrea AMISOM for six months to June Security and Political Situation 2009 in the Sub-region, in particular S/2009/503 (2 October 2009) Somalia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Useful Additional Resources: 10th July 2009. Report of the Secretary-General on Somalia pursuant to Security Council resolution 1872 (2009) Paula Roque, ‘Somalia: UN Documents Understanding Al-Shabaab’, Situation Report, Institute for SC/9980, (12 July 2010) Security S/RES/1872 (26 May 2009) Security Studies, 3 June 2009. Council Press Statement on the Renewed authorization of Kampala Bombings AMISOM until 31 January 2010 Solomon Dersso, ‘The Somalia Conflict Implications for SC/Res/1916 (19 March 2010) S/PRST/2009 (15 May 2009) Peacemaking and Peacekeeping Resolution on the Report of the Presidential Statement Efforts’, ISS Paper 198, Sanctions Committee condemning the renewed September 2009. fighting by Al-Shabaab and other S/2010/91 (10 March 2010) extremists Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia Pursuant to Security S/2009/210 (16 April 2009) Council Resolution 1853 (2008) Secretary-General’s Report requested by resolution 1863 SC/Res/1910 (14 January 2010) on a possible UN peacekeeping Resolution on AMISOM deployment in Somalia
PSC Retrospective – The PSC and the ICC
Since the International Criminal also decided on the establishment Chamber that rejected the charge Court (ICC) Prosecutor, Moreno of an AU High Level Panel with the of genocide against El-Bashir. Ocampo, indicted Sudanese mandate ‘to examine the situation President Omar Hassan El-Bashir in Darfur in depth and submit A few days later, the AU showed for ICC crimes, disagreement has recommendations … on how best the first sign of opposition to the emerged, particularly between the issues of accountability and new arrest warrant for the crime the AU and the Peace and combating impunity, on the one of genocide. In a communiqué Security Council on the one hand hand, and reconciliation and healing issued on 16 July 2010, the and the ICC and the UNSC on on the other, could be effectively AU Commission expressed ‘its the other. Various AU organs, and comprehensively addressed’. conviction that this new and from the Assembly to the PSC untimely decision by the ICC and and the Chairperson of the AU On Monday 12 July 2010, the Pre- its action in general on Sudan Commission, have called for the Trial Chamber of the ICC issued are counter productive, and will suspension of the ICC process complicate the ongoing efforts an arrest warrant against Sudan’s against El-Bashir in order to and increase the risks of instability, president El-Bashir for the crime avoid undermining the peace with far-reaching consequences of genocide. This is in addition to and reconciliation process in the for Sudan, the region and Africa the arrest warrant that the ICC Pre- Sudan. The PSC, in particular, not as a whole.’ The ‘ongoing efforts’ Trail Chamber issued against the only called for the application of cited in the communiqué include Article 16 of the Rome Statute Sudanese President in March 2009 (a) ‘the democratic transformation with the result of suspending for war crimes and crimes against in Sudan’ in the context of the a decision by the Court on the humanity. The new arrest warrant April 2010 historic elections; (b) application of the Prosecutor to for the crime of genocide is a result ‘the renewed efforts towards the indict El-Bashir. As a manifestation of the successful appeal by the completion of the implementation of its ‘unflinching commitment Prosecutor to the Appeals Chamber >>page 10 to combating impunity’, the PSC against the decision of the Pre-Trial
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PSC Retrospective – The PSC and the ICC (continued) of the CPA, including the While there are countries that have The Summit also decided ‘to holding of the self-determination reservation on this specific decision, reject for now, the request of referendum in South Sudan the first test for this decision came the ICC to open a Liaison Office and the negotiations on post- when El-Bashir made his first trip to the AU in Addis Ababa’. referendum arrangements’; (c) to an ICC member country, Chad, Earlier, a communiqué of the AU the renewed efforts towards the to attend a regional summit. This Commission that was issued on 16 search for a lasting and inclusive happened a few days after the 12 July 2010, after a meeting between political solution to the crisis July arrest warrant against El-Bashir the President of the ICC, Sang- in Darfur; and (d) the ongoing for the crime of genocide. Defying Hyun Song, and the Chairperson consultations for implementing the arrest warrant and indeed their of the AU Commission, Jean the recommendations of the AU obligations under the Rome Statute, Ping, stated that ‘the Chairperson High Level Panel on issues of Chadian authorities accorded him expressed readiness to explore justice, reconciliation and healing. a presidential treatment with huge the possibility of establishing an security protection. Together with ICC Liaison Office to the AU in Following its 237th Meeting in others in the Summit, Chad also Addis Ababa’. Kampala Uganda in the lead- extended support to El-Bashir and up-to the 15th Ordinary Session Chadian President Idris Deby called It is clear from the foregoing that of the AU Assembly, the Peace on the regional leaders present in the the 12 July arrest warrant for and Security Council issued a summit to support the peace process genocide has further deepened the communiqué on the situation in Sudan and help solve the crisis. ICC-AU controversy and has made in Darfur, PSC/PR/COMM-1 their relationship more complex. (CXCVII). In Paragraph 8 of the This development has the potential As further evidence of adherence communiqué, the PSC expressed to negatively affect the situation in to the AU’s decision on non- its ‘concern at the counter- Sudan. On the part of the AU, there cooperation with the ICC, after productive consequences of the are some questions that its position decision of the Pre-Trial Chamber Chad El-Bashir also travelled to raises, the most important being of the ICC’ by issuing a second another ICC member country, whether or not it is motivated by a warrant and urged the UNSC to Kenya, upon invitation, to attend perceived need to protect African ‘heed the call for the deferral of the the official launch of Kenya’s new leadership. process initiated by the ICC against Constitution on 27 August 2010. El-Bashir‘ in the interest of peace, In this instance, however, the ICC justice and reconciliation’. referred Kenya to the UN Security While the motivation of the Council (UNSC) for failing to comply AU and its implications for international criminal justice is Expectedly, the new arrest warrant with the arrest warrant and hence important for people in Africa featured in the discussions of the drew the UNSC into the centre and the credibility of the AU, on AU Heads of State and Government of the controversy. The UNSC’s a more substantive issue it is also during the 15th ordinary Session of response, which would be keenly important to ask whether the the AU Assembly held on 25-27 followed, may offer an amicable AU’s concern about the potential July 2010 in Kampala, Uganda. In way out of the stalemate between impact of the ICC process on the its decision, Assembly/AU/Dec.296 the AU and the ICC. (XV), the AU Assembly expressed peace processes in Sudan has ‘its disappointment that the merit that deserves a hearing. At In Kampala, going a step further, United Nations Security Council the heart of this debate is whether the Assembly, reflecting some has not acted upon the request the situation in Sudan raises the by the African Union to defer the frustration with the UNSC, pushed issue of how justice (combating proceedings … in accordance with for a common African position impunity) can or should be Article 16 of the Rome Statute’ for the proposed amendment of pursued alongside peace and and reiterated its request again’. Article 16 of the Rome Statute, reconciliation processes. More Additionally, the Assembly also a move which would allow the accurately, the issue is whether reiterated its earlier decision, more democratic UN General now is the right time to prosecute Assembly/AU/Dec.245(XIII), of Assembly to take over the power Sudanese President El-Bashir. In the 13th Summit that ‘AU member of the UNSC to defer cases for one this regard, the specific questions states shall not cooperate with the year where the UNSC has failed to that deserve serious consideration ICC in the arrest and surrender’ of take a decision within a specified the Sudanese president to the ICC. timeframe. >>page 11
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10 PSC Retrospective – The PSC and the ICC (continued)
include: Does the prosecution of very positive outcome of the ICC credibly defend its position vis- President El-Bashir at this juncture process is that it prompted the PSC à-vis the ICC. Consequently, advance or undermine peace and to engage and address the issues the PSC should prioritise the reconciliation and the quest for that the ICC indictment raised. The implementation of the Mbeki full justice in Darfur? Is he the key outcome of this process resulted in Panel Recommendations. interlocutor for the government the valuable recommendations of Crucially, the speed with which in the ongoing efforts to achieve the AU High Level Panel, otherwise these recommendations are a comprehensive solution to the known as the Mbeki Panel, which duly implemented, and the crisis in Darfur and the fragile has been generally welcomed by extent to which they are applied, North-South peace process? Will the international community. should determine whether or it be in the interest of peace and not the PSC, in collaboration justice and to the benefit of the with all concerned, is able to While the report offered an victims of crimes in Darfur if the make substantive progress on important opportunity to address recommendations of the AU High the issues of peace, justice and the issues of justice and peace Level Panel are implemented? Can reconciliation in Darfur. in Sudan comprehensively, it the prosecution of El-Bashir by the proved to be inadequate for ICC continue without undermining convincing many to give a hearing the quest for peace in Sudan? Is to the AU’s position on the ICC his prosecution capable of leading process in Sudan. Seemingly, it to the full pursuit of justice in is only by aggressively pursuing Darfur? and showing concrete progress in the implementation of these In the context of the work of the recommendations that the PSC, PSC, an important and indeed a and more generally the AU, can
in the DRC and Burundi. The PSC parties, several meetings were COUNTRY ANALYSIS further decided to establish a PSC arranged to try and address the Sub-Committee to elaborate and put concerns of the parties, albeit in place, in consultation with the DRC without success. Several opposition Burundi and Burundi, a support programme parties, organised around the for governance, reconstruction and coalition ADC, continued their Previous PSC Communiqués consolidation of peace. boycott and did not participate and Recommendations: in the presidential (28 June) and legislative (23 July) elections. On 24 June 2010, the AU issued Insecurity, especially in the capital, At its 230th meeting, (PSC/ a communiqué in which the increased as a result of numerous PR/COMM.(CCXXX)), the PSC Chairperson of the Commission grenade and arson attacks and considered the Report of the indicated his preoccupation with assassinations, mostly targeting the Multidisciplinary Mission for the recent political developments ruling party, the National Council the Evaluation of Post-Conflict in Burundi following the for the Defence of Democracy- Reconstruction and Development announcement of the provisional Forces for the Defence of Needs in the DRC and Burundi (PSC/ results, which were contested Democracy (CNDD-FDD). Tensions PR/2 (CCXXX)). The Multidisciplinary by various political parties. The especially increased in the run-up Mission visited both countries at Chairperson urged political parties to the presidential poll. The ADC the beginning of the year within the that are part of the newly formed announced it would not recognise framework of the implementation of coalition, Alliance of Democrats the President to be elected in, what the decisions taken by the PSC at its for Change (ADC), to resort to legal 163rd and 199th meetings. Based on they termed, the ‘anti-constitutional’ means only to resolve the conflicts the Report, the PSC recommended presidential poll of 28 June. The related to the communal elections that a Conference of African government responded with various of 24 May. Solidarity be organised by the end arrests and restrictions against of 2010 as well as intensification of opposition parties. The Union for advocacy efforts to have international Crisis Escalation Potential: National Progress (UPRONA), which partners contribute more to the did not contest the presidency in ongoing process of post-conflict In response to the contesting of reconstruction and development results by numerous opposition >>page 12
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11 the poll on 28 June, rejoined the Key Issues and Internal seats filled by the CNDD-FDD. process by filling the communal Dynamics: The final poll will be held on 7 council seats it won in the September 2010. communal elections and submitting Optimism prevailed amongst various lists of candidates for the legislative international stakeholders in the run- Various factors have been identified elections of 23 July. up to Burundi’s first poll this year, the to explain the decision of numerous communal election that was initially opposition parties first to reject The leader of the National Forces of scheduled for 21 May and then the communal election results Liberation (FNL) that garnered the postponed to 24 May. The newly and subsequently to boycott second biggest number of votes, appointed UN Envoy, Mr. Charles other levels of elections. Some Agathon Rwasa, went into hiding Petrie, was quoted as saying that opposition parties may have had following rumours of his imminent ‘despite challenges, Burundi can give unrealistic expectations and as such arrest. He is said to have fled to the a lesson in democracy to others.’ were tremendously disappointed eastern DRC whereas other reports with the results of the communal claim he is still in the country. elections. Nonetheless, arguably for Meanwhile, the government has The 24 May elections were newcomers FNL and Movement for recognised Emmanuel Miburo as the generally peaceful and witnessed Solidarity and Democracy (MSD), new president of the FNL. Léonard the remarkably well-coordinated a percentage of almost 15 and four Nyangoma, the spokesperson for and active involvement of local per cent respectively was quite the coalition of opposition parties, civil society. However, during the commendable. The generally weak the ADC, went into hiding following announcement of the provisional state of political parties in Burundi rumours that he would be stripped results of these elections, various may have resulted in a failure by of the immunity he received as opposition parties, including the various parties to design a ‘defeat an MP in the National Assembly. FNL and Front for Democracy in strategy’. The lack of financial The anticipated action against Burundi (FRODEBU), announced means may have also played a role, him was in response to the 11 July their rejection of the results, which with several opposition parties communiqué by the ADC in which pointed to a landslide victory for reportedly not being able to pay it accused the government of having the incumbent ruling party. In the the fairly high amounts required committed massacres constituting declaration issued on 25 May, when submitting lists of candidates. crimes against humanity that, in they claimed to possess irrefutable Burundi, one of the world’s least certain respects, resembled acts of evidence of massive fraud and urbanised countries, also appears genocide. irregularities. The eight signatories to have taught the lesson that of the declaration demanded that sentiments in the capital are in no the CENI (electoral commission of In light of the above, chances of a way reflective of views in the rural renewed rebellion are often cited in Burundi) annul the results and re- areas. The importance of the rural discussions about the way forward organise the communal elections electorate is something that the in Burundi. While it is true that on the same day of the presidential ruling party has been very much the political parties of the ADC poll on 28 June. Several days later, aware of since it came to power in have limited options to engage the most international and national 2005. Furthermore, the arguably incoming administration, it is unlikely observer missions issued their uncompromising way in which the that elements of these parties will preliminary declarations generally ruling party has governed Burundi make a serious attempt to violently indicating that, despite certain over the past five years is likely to oppose the status quo. In addition, challenges, the election had taken have contributed to the opposition it is widely acknowledged that place in a free and fair manner parties’ loss of faith in the possibility popular support for a rebellion and in line with international that democratic competition could would be extremely weak, given standards. The presidential poll was proceed in a free and fair manner. the fact that the challenges in organised without major problems with incumbent President Pierre Burundi today are different from the Geo-Political Dynamics: circumstances under which great Nkurunziza of the CNDD-FDD parts of the population supported running as the only candidate. The the armed opposition against the legislative election of 23 July was Pan-African and RECs Dynamics: governments of the 1980s and contested by four or more parties, 1990s. Nevertheless, given the size depending on which provinces were The AU, the International of Burundi and the number of small targeted by the participating parties. Conference on the Great Lakes arms that remain in circulation, it The CNDD-FDD won 81 out of the Region (ICGLR) as well as the East would not be difficult to create 106 seats in the National Assembly, African Community (EAC) deployed chaos in the country, especially in whereas UPRONA won 17 seats. election observers to Burundi and the capital, and hinder ongoing, On 28 July, members of the Senate led efforts to facilitate dialogue very much needed, sustainable were elected in an indirect poll. developmental efforts. UPRONA won two seats with 32 >>page 13
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12 between the relevant parties heightened tensions remained following the opposition’s rejection impartial and free of provocative Documentation: of the communal election results. broadcast commentary. Relevant AU Documents: UN Dynamics: Scenario Planning: PSC/PR/COMM.(CCXXX) The new head of the UN Integrated Scenario 1: Communiqué of the 230th meeting Office in Burundi (BINUB), Mr. of the PSC on 27 May 2010. Charles Petrie, took up his position As the incoming administration after it had been vacant for several decides on the composition of the PSC/PR/2 (CCXXX) Major months due to the government’s various governance institutions, the Conclusions and Recommendations request to the UN to recall the situation in Burundi remains calm of the Multidisciplinary Mission previous Executive Representative, and is characterised by anticipation for Evaluation of Post-Conflict Mr. Youssef Mahmoud, at the end for the immediate future. High Reconstruction and Development of 2009. A visit to Burundi by UN expectations among the population Needs in DRC (21 January – 13 Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon prevail, with emphasis on the fight February 2010) and Burundi (13-22 on 10 June focused attention against corruption and impunity and February 2010). on the situation in Burundi and the promotion of dialogue to avoid provided him with an opportunity recurring strikes in the public sector. Communiqué on the situation in to emphasise the importance of an Burundi, Addis Ababa, 24 June inclusive democratic process. Scenario 2: 2010. International Community Dynamics: Tensions rise as a result of numerous UN Documents: violent acts, mostly attributed to elements within the opposition The international community Independent External Evaluation: parties. The government responds generally dismissed the concerns of Peacebuilding Fund Projects in in a restrained manner and armed the opposition parties and indicated Burundi. Susanna P. Campbell opposition gradually declines. continued support for the CENI, with Leonard Kayobera and despite the few mistakes it had Justine Nkurunziza. March 2010. committed. Some argue that the Early Response Options: international community generally S/RES/1902 (2009) Resolution ‘observed for stability’ and preferred The following are possible options 1902 adopted by the Security to maintain the status quo, despite for the PSC to consider Council at its 6245th meeting on their unhappiness with the ruling 17 December 2009. party at times. The fact that certain Option 1: elements amongst the international S/2009/611 (30 November 2009) community came out ‘too soon’ Sixth Report of the Secretary- in support of the integrity of the The PSC in tandem with the UN General on the United Nations communal election and too easily Integrated Office in Burundi (BINUB) Integrated Office in Burundi. ‘ridiculed’ the opposition, is said to the East African Community (EAC) and have contributed to the hardening other international actors could start of the opposition’s stance. talks between the opposing groups in Useful Additional Resources: Burundi to prevent the withdrawal of political actors and their subsequent Civil Society Dynamics: Burundi: Elections without possible transformation into military competition and no peace without movements. participation: Where might it go Civil society in Burundi is arguably the biggest success of the post- from here? Henri Boshoff and conflict reconstruction process Option 2: Ralph Ellermann. Institute for thus far. Various civil society Security Studies. Policy Brief Nr 19, organisations formed coalitions, The PSC could establish an August 2010. www.issafrica.org such as the Civil Society Coalition international contact group for Electoral Monitoring (COSOME) on Burundi to closely monitor Another Crossroad for Burundi: and the Amatora mu Mahoro developments in the country to From the FNL to Peaceful Elections Project, to contribute to various make timely and relevant decisions in 2010. Jamila El Abdellaoui. phases of the elections. The highly and coordinate and harmonise Institute for Security Studies. regarded ‘Media Synergie’ ensured international support for the Situation Report, 19 November extensive media coverage of the democratisation and reconstruction 2009. www.issafrica.org electoral marathon and despite processes.
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AU POST-SUMMIT ANALYSIS
The African Union has held its Angered by the Kampala attacks, the parties. 15th Ordinary Session from 19 to Uganda, which contributed most of 27 July 2010 in Uganda, Kampala. the AMISOM troops, has primarily The Assembly also urged proper On 19 and 20 July 2010, the pre- pushed for more troop deployment implementation of the provisions assembly activity was launched and enhancement of the mandate of the Ouagadougou Political with the meeting of the Permanent for the mission. The Assembly Agreement to create an enabling Representatives Committee allowed the deployment of 2000 environment for the speedy (PRC), followed on 22 and 23 July more troops to bring AMISOM force holding of elections in Cote 2010 by the Executive Council level to the level mandated by the d’Ivoire, where issues surrounding of Ministers convention which AU. The Assembly also requested the voter identification process set the tone of the Assembly of the Chairperson of the Commission and lack of progress in the Heads of State and Government to appoint a ‘High Level Personality’ implementation of the DDR which met from 25 to 27 July to draw and enhance global support exacerbated disagreements 2010. Although the official and attention for Somalia. The between the President and theme of this year’s summit was Assembly also repeated its call for opposition groups. ‘Maternal, Infant and Child Health the transformation of AMISOM into and Development in Africa’, as a United Nations Peace Mission expected, issues relating to peace to enhance the effectiveness and Guinea and Niger also featured and security featured prominently capacity of the mission. on the agenda and the Assembly on the agenda of the meeting. The called for a speedy and smooth spirit of the summit was highly transition to constitutional order. Sudan was also a focus of the On Mauritania, decisions called influenced and oriented by the assembly as security deteriorated response to the 11 July bombings for the resumption of political in Darfur and tensions increased dialogue in accordance with the in the Ugandan capital, Kampala between the North and South ahead that killed more than 80 civilians. Dakar Framework Agreement. The of the January 2011 referendum due Assembly strongly condemned The summit, which was held in to hesitation from some elements the year declared by the AU as the interference of the army in in the leadership of the north the politics of Guinea Bissau and ‘the Year of Peace and Security about holding the referendum as in Africa’, discussed and passed on Madagascar encouraged the scheduled. The summit urged the SADC Mediator, former President decisions on a range of peace and National Congress Party of the security issues. Joachim Chissano, to continue north and the Southern People’s efforts to resolve the Madagascar Liberation Movement to address Crisis. With respect to inter-state On Crisis Situations these problems in accordance with tensions the Assembly noted the across the Continent: the 2005 Comprehensive Peace improved relations between Chad Agreement (CPA) particularly on and Sudan while it expressed The various ongoing conflicts in the fate of the disputed oil rich area its concern at the continued Africa, post-conflict areas and of Abyei and the completion of the impasse in the peace process early warning issues, were all demarcation of the North-South between Ethiopia and Eritrea and featured on the summit agenda. border. The Assembly expressed its reaffirmed its readiness to assist The Somalia conflict, which has concern at the recent deterioration the two countries to overcome at times proved to be the most of the security situation in Darfur, the current deadlock through complex of peace and security and called for the continuation of dialogue in order to normalise issues, hijacked the theme of the the Doha process led by the AU- their relations. summit, triggered by the ever UN Chief Mediator former Foreign weakening TFG (Transitional Minister of Burkina Faso Djibril Yipènè Bassolé, The AU has also The Year of Peace and Federal Government), ongoing Security in Africa: fighting in Mogadishu and the extended the mandate of the United Kampala terrorist attack just two Nations-African Union Mission in Following the decision of the weeks before the summit. As Darfur (UNAMID) for a further August 2009 AU Summit for usual, the AU expressed its strong period of 12 months and requested 2010 to be a year of peace, on 9 support for the TFG and strongly the Security Council to follow suit. January 2010 the AU Commission condemned the Kampala attacks launched the official festivities of and other acts of violence by Regarding the Central African the Year of Peace and Security. Al Shabaab and other terrorist Republic (CAR), the AU called for The Kampala Summit reviewed the groups hostile to the TFG and the the holding of elections in October AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). and December 2010, as agreed by >>page 15
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AU POST-SUMMIT ANALYSIS (continued) progress made in implementing should not cooperate with the reaffirmed the common position the Year of Peace. The relevant International Criminal Court (ICC) in of the continent in accordance decision primarily urged Member the arrest of the Sudanese President with the Ezulwini Consensus States to sign and ratify relevant El-Bashir. The AU has also rejected and the Sirte Declaration on the AU instruments, including the for the time being the request by Reform of the United Nations African Charter on Democracy, the ICC to open a Liaison Office Security Council. The assembly Elections and Governance. to the AU in Addis Ababa. While also called for a stronger stance at reiterating its commitment to continental level and international fight impunity and its conviction African Peace and cooperation in preventing and that there has been blatant abuse Security Architecture: combating terrorism and fighting of the principle of universal piracy in Africa and further jurisdiction, the Assembly called The Assembly expressed for the establishment of a body requested the Commission to satisfaction at the level of that will review claims of abuse of submit regular reports on the operationalisation of the African the principle. The Assembly also status of cooperation in fighting Peace and Security Architecture called on the AU Commission to terrorism in Africa. (APSA) and ratified the finalise the study on implications membership of the Panel of the of empowering the African Court The 16th ordinary Summit of Wise by reappointing Ahmed Ben on Human and Peoples’ Rights the AU will take place in Addis Bella and Dr. Salim Ahmed Salim to have criminal jurisdiction over for a further and final mandate Ababa, Ethiopia in January 2011 international crimes such as under the theme, ‘Shared Values’. of three years from December genocide, war crimes and crimes The summit has also determined 2010 and by appointing former against humanity. Zambian president, Dr Kenneth the venue and theme of the Kaunda, Mrs. Marie Madeleine 17th ordinary Summit of the AU, Kalala-Ngoy and Mary Chinery On the Union Government which will take place in July Hesse, for a mandate of three 2011 in Libreville, Gabon, under years from December 2010. On On the ongoing discussion on the theme ‘Accelerating Youth the African Standby Force (ASF) continental integration and the Empowerment for Sustainable the Assembly decided that the transformation of the African Development’. continental force would reinforce Union Commission (AUC) into the AMISOM once operational. African Union Authority (AUA), the Assembly did not pass any significant decision other than Justice and Accountability affirming the previously held stance and Universal Jurisdiction: of gradually transforming the AUC into the African Union Authority The summit urged member states (AUA). to respect International Law and particularly the immunity of state officials when applying the Additional Summit Decisions: principle of universal jurisdiction while reaffirming its previous On the reform of the United Nations decision that AU Member States Security Council, the Assembly
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15 over the absence of party agents country. Nonetheless, two days COUNTRY ANALYSIS in many polling stations, apart from after the incumbent, President those of the Rwandan Patriotic Paul Kagame, was re-elected in a Front (RPF), as well as the scarcity landslide that saw him win 95% of Rwanda of representatives of Rwandan civil the votes, several people, including society. The report concluded that two children, were wounded in Previous AU Documents Rwanda proved that it was fully a grenade attack in Kigali. The and Recommendations: capable of holding free, transparent grenade attack was one of a series and fair elections in accordance of violent incidents that had taken The Chairperson of the African with generally recognised AU and place in the capital during February, Union Commission (AUC), Jean Ping, international democratic norms and March and May 2010. Although sent an Election Observer Mission referred to the August 9 election as nobody had claimed responsibility on 4 August 2010 to monitor the a manifestation of the consolidation for the attacks; the Rwandan army presidential election that took place of democracy in Rwanda. declared that it had unearthed a on August 9, 2010 in Rwanda. The network behind the attacks. It did mission, which was composed of Pan- Crisis Escalation Potential: not name the alleged perpetrators. African parliamentarians, members of national parliaments, high-level The run up to the presidential polls The political unrest, coupled with officials of election management in Rwanda was characterised by the series of arrests, violent attacks bodies, prominent individuals and a spate of attacks on government and killings, as well as dissention in members of civil society from critics. The months prior to the the ranks of the ruling RPF, tended various African countries, was led elections witnessed a series of to escalate the crisis in Rwanda, a by the former Minister of Foreign attacks, including killings and country where the wounds of its Affairs of Mauritius, Anil K. Gayan. arrests, on out-spoken journalists traumatic genocide have not yet The mission was mandated to and opposition figures. The fully healed. Whereas the country observe the presidential election attempted assassination of the is widely perceived to be stable, process in accordance with AU exiled former army chief, Lt Gen recording considerable socio- guidelines on election observation Kayumba Nyamwasa, on 19 June economic development in recent and monitoring and was guided by in Johannesburg, was the first in a years, critics have been wary of the the AU Declaration on the Principles number of high profile incidents lack of democratic pluralism and Governing Democratic Elections in followed by the killing in Kigali, political freedom in Rwanda’s public Africa. on 24 June, of Jean-Leonard spheres. Although the government Rugambage, deputy editor of an has made some progress in legally In its preliminary statement, the team independent newspaper critical of and institutionally challenging noted that competing political parties President Kagame. The first Vice the existence and politicisation were able to conduct their campaign President of the Democratic Green of ethnicity in the country, recent without any problems. The observer Party of Rwanda, Andre Kagwa developments have shown that mission was therefore generally Rwisereka, was also found brutally ethnicity remains ever present in satisfied with the conduct of the murdered on July 14, 2010. In Rwanda. The ongoing unrest and electoral process. Opposition parties addition, opposition presidential instability in the neighboring states approached by the mission had candidate, Ntanganda, was arrested of the great lakes region, specifically confirmed that they had been granted on 24 June and charged with the Democratic Republic of Congo equal access to state media and had ‘divisionism’ and the attempted (DRC), is an additional factor therefore been afforded freedom to murder of a former party member. contributing to potential insecurity promote their respective ideas. The The arrest of the controversial Hutu in Rwanda. report by the observer team further opposition leader, Victoire Ingabire, applauded the Rwandan public for who is barred from running in Key Issues and Internal the high voter turnout of 97.5%. presidential elections due to her Dynamics: The team recognised the political alleged denial of the Rwandan maturity of the Rwandan electorate genocide, a criminal offense, further Rwanda has a very complex socio- and commended the country’s exacerbated political and ethnic economic and political make-up National Electoral Commission for tensions in the country. Rwanda’s and it is quite normal to observe the way in which the elections had capital, Kigali also witnessed a divergent and extreme viewpoints been organised and supervised. number of grenade attacks in the on the developments in post- six months preceding the elections. Genocide Rwanda. Many, including The report of the observer mission prominent international and regional declared that the electoral process The polling day was praised individuals and institutions, hold was free and fair. However the by most observers as generally team also expressed its concern peaceful and stable throughout the >>page 17
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16 positive views of Rwanda based by Belgium in 1916, at which time take tough measures against the on their perceptions of continuous it became subject to a Belgian Kagame government. The election and speedy socio-economic League of Nations mandate, along registration of Ingabire, who heads development and transformation with Burundi, under the name of the United Democratic Forces during the past decade. The way in Ruanda-Urundi. The Belgian rule (UDF), had been rejected and she which the ruling party dealt with the institutionalised ethnicity. Rwanda was arrested on 21 April, charged post-genocide period in Rwanda’s became independent on 1 July 1962 with divisionism, terrorism and development, particularly the truth and since that time the country has denying the Rwandan genocide. and reconciliation process and the been plagued by ethnic tension Although she was released the traditional Gacaca courts system associated with the traditionally next day, she still remains, banned that tried those accused of taking unequal relationship between the from leaving Kigali. In addition, the part in the 1994 genocide, are dominant Tutsi minority and the government is gathering evidence among many positive developments majority Hutus. The most recent of her alleged link with the DRC- in the country’s recent history. and violent ethnic crisis began in based Hutu rebel movement, Forces Rwanda has made valiant attempts April 1994 resulting in a genocide Democratiques de Liberation du to survive its genocidal past that clamed the lives of 800,000 Rwanda (FDLR), in an alleged plot by recording one of the fastest Tutsis and moderate Hutus. The against the Kigali government, an economic growth rates in Africa, Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front accusation that she strongly denies. doubling its GDP Per Capita during (RPF) controlled the country in July The Rwandan government has the period of a single decade. 1994 and, following the genocidal also imprisoned her lawyer, Peter The achievements of the Kagame attacks, some two million Hutus, Erlinder, who went to Rwanda to administration, particularly in including some of those responsible defend Ingabire, also accusing him infrastructural development, health, for the massacres, fled to Zaire, of denial of the genocide. He was education and diversification of the now the DRC. Rwanda has used released on 18th June in the face economy, have also boosted exports traditional Gacaca community of international pressure and the and tourism. Poor rural areas have courts to examine the cases of personal intervention of the US also benefited from loans given to those suspected of taking part in Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. co-operative institutions and aid the 1994 genocide. However, many However, the case against him programmes. Rwanda is one of the individuals accused of orchestrating continues. few countries in Africa where the the slaughter subsequently appeared public sector is more efficient than before an International Criminal In April 2010, the Government, private industry and has one of Tribunal in Arusha, Tanzania. which has implemented strict rules the lowest corruption levels on the regarding discussing ethnicity and continent. Rwanda’s achievement The country drafted a new the genocide, also suspended in realising gender equality is also constitution in 2003 and held the Umuseso and Umuvugizi, two of quite remarkable. first post-genocide presidential the main Rwandan tabloids for election that same year, won inciting public disorder. On 24 June, Nonetheless, the country also has by the former rebel leader Paul Umuvugizi’s editor, Jean-Leonard fierce critics, especially in regard to Kagame. The election that took Rugambage, was killed in front of the condition of human rights and place on August 9, 2010 was the his home in Kigali by two gunmen. civil liberties. Many accuse Kagame second landslide win for Kagame, The banning of the two papers of restricting free speech and other 52 and is expected to be his final and the murder attracted a lot of rights and using the genocidal seven year term in accordance international clamour for freedom past to curtail such freedoms with the current constitution. Mr of expression and an independent and obstruct the development of Kagame’s supporters argue that investigation. These developments political pluralism. Some critics he has brought both stability and have also cast doubt about whether also believe that the root cause of steady economic growth to Rwanda the prevailing political environment the 1994 genocide has never been since the country’s 1994 genocide. is conducive to the holding of a free dealt with properly and that many Conversely, some opponents have and fair election in Rwanda. On July legitimate grievances were ignored. denounced the election as a fake 14 Andre Kagwa Rwisereka, first It is also felt by many that the process. vice-president of the Democratic political mariginalisation of some Green party, which was unable sections of the population, as well The election process, the to register for the poll, was also as the perceived unevenness of the atmosphere in which elections took found dead near Butare, in southern transitional justice processes, could place, and the eventual outcome of Rwanda. The series of killings and ultimately result in another political the elections, were criticised and arrests has created a feeling of fear and security crisis in Rwanda. contested by many of Kagame’s and insecurity among the Rwandan opponents. Victoire Ingabire, an public. The Rwandan government Rwanda was a part of German East opposition leader, has called on Africa from 1890 until occupied the international community to >>page 18
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17 strongly refuted any involvement in of immoral conduct and corruption, and influential position. The unity these murders and has pledged to respectively. government move failed to impress investigate the cases independently. many as the absence of any real Critics claim there is a long history Many regard the August 9 opposition remains a fundamental of murders and disappearances of elections as having lacked a real concern in the consolidation of political opponents in Rwanda. opposition. Kagame actually faced democracy in Rwanda. opponents who were his allies in The other major factor destabilising the last elections in 2003. More Kagame refutes the criticism the political landscape of Rwanda vocal opponents of Kagame were from international human rights includes rifts within the ruling prevented from standing for election observers and news media RPF leadership elites. Faustin and complained about intimidation. organisations that have been Kayumba Nyamwasa, former RPF Jean-Damascene Ntawukuriryayo, very critical of his government in fighter and former chief of staff the presidential candidate of the past few months. He argues of the Rwandese armed forces, Rwanda’s main opposition party, that no country has moved from was publicly accused by Rwanda’s the Social Democratic Party genocide to confrontational politics chief prosecutor of being behind (SDP), said that his party’s policies overnight and that his country is recent grenade attacks. A number were a continuation of those of on the right track and progressing of other senior military figures have the RPF’s and conceded defeat. at an acceptable pace in a journey also been arrested in past months, Ntawukuriryayo, who is also deputy- towards cohesion, democracy, including Brigadier-General Jean chairman of the House of Parliament stability and prosperity. John Bosco Kazura, the head of the and a former health minister, came Rwangombwa, the minister of country’s football federation, who second with 3.1% of the votes. finance and economic planning, was taken into custody for making Other candidates in the election, recently stated that Rwandan an unauthorised trip to South Prosper Higiro of the Liberal Party society was still fragile and that the Africa. Kazura was accused of (PL), who also heads a team of government could not allow total traveling to South Africa to meet Rwandan MPs in the Pan-African freedom of expression while some prominent Rwandan exiles living parliament, received 1.1% of the politicians and parts of Rwandan there. Nyamwasa, who accused the vote and Mrs Alvera Mukabaramba, society remained ready to exploit president of corruption and fled to a former pediatrician and the only ethnicity to achieve power. South Africa in February 2010 was woman in the race for the Party for Progress and Concord (PPC), drew shot in Johannesburg on July 19 in Kagame’s government has a strong 0.2 % of electoral support. a failed assassination attempt. His stance on the elimination of the wife, and the opposition leader, specifically Hutu and Tutsi identities, Victoire Ingabire, subsequently The 2003 Constitution states that and claims to prefer designating accused President Paul Kagame of the President and the Prime Minister everyone as Rwandan. Fifteen orchestrating the operation. The cannot belong to the same party. years after the brutal genocide and Rwandan government has dismissed Other parties and social groups following commendable efforts in the allegation. The Rwandan must be represented in posts such favour of transitional justice and government has linked Nyamwasa as the speakers in the Chamber of reconciliation, Tutsis remain bitter to three grenade attacks in Kigali, Deputies and the Senate and their toward the perpetrators of the Rwanda’s capital, on February 19, respective deputies. Accordingly, genocide. However, Hutus like the which killed one person and injured on August 22, Paul Kagame offered opposition leader Victoire Ingabire at least 30 others. The authorities to form a government of national believe it is time to address the accused Nyamwasa of trying to unity with opposition candidates killings carried out against the Hutus destabilise Rwanda while he was and those parties that lost to him during the civil war by members in the country, and also while he during the August 2010 presidential of the then rebel group, the RPF. was in India, where he served as elections. Kagame said he was Analysts say that the compromise on Rwanda’s ambassador. South African willing to continue working with the democratic rights and civil liberties, police said earlier this year, they had three opposition parties, the Liberal for the sake of peace and stability in not arrested Nyamwasa because Party (PL), the Social Democratic Rwanda, is no longer acceptable as they do not have an extradition Party (PSD) and the Party for development cannot be sustained treaty with Rwanda. In a move Progress and Concord (PPC). Many without democracy. There are also further manifesting problems at think that the PSD presidential fears that the restriction on free the top, Kagame replaced defence candidate, Dr. Jean Damascene speech could result in accumulated minister Gen. Marcel Gatsinzi with Ntawukuriryayo, would be the grievances that might easily army Chief Gen. James Kabarebe next Prime Minister. However, escalate into violence. Rwanda’s in April 2010. Two RPF veterans, this offer would also mean the undeniable economic successes Gen. Emmanuel Karenzi Karake PSD president, Dr Vincent Biruta, seem to have not produced the and Gen. Charles Muhire, were also who is the current president of the arrested the same month, accused senate, would lose his powerful >>page 19
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18 required momentum to be able to territories and Rwanda accused politicians in order to create a overcome the unresolved questions the Congolese army of aiding Hutu pluralistic democracy. The report of Rwanda’s troubled past. Many rebels in the Eastern region of the also stated that whereas many acknowledge that relations between DRC. freedoms and rights are guaranteed Hutus and Tutsis are slowly in Rwanda, their implementation improving, but it is difficult to gauge UN Dynamics: and practice has been deficient. Dr. the value of such improvement as Salim added that as four candidates long as discussion of the genocide in the presidential election were Following the series of killings, and ethnicity remain taboo topics from the governing coalition, it the United Nations demanded a for debate. was clear that the lack of critical full investigation into allegations opposition voices in Rwanda was of politically motivated killings of cause for concern. Geo-Political Dynamics: opposition figures in Rwanda in the run-up to the presidential election. Pan-African and RECs Dynamics: The UN Secretary-General Ban Ki- In May 2010, The European Union moon encouraged the Rwandan announced that that it would not The AU, which also observed the authorities to take immediate action, deploy electoral observers to Rwandan elections, had a positive including a thorough investigation Rwanda because of budgetary assessment of the electoral process into the latest incidents, and to constraints. The EU subsequently and it now appears that the active bring the perpetrators to justice congratulated Rwanda for the calm role of the country in AU affairs will to ease political tensions. The atmosphere prevailing on polling resume. Rwanda is also part of the United Nations also condemned day and for the high voter turnout. East African Community (EAC), a the assassination of Jean-Léonard The EU expressed the view that regional block that includes Burundi, Rugambage, the editor of the bi- the election marked a new stage in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. The monthly Umuvugizi, on 24 June. Rwanda’s democratic process and EAC also sent observers to the The UN furthermore expressed its development. However, the EU also elections, which they subsequently strong disapproval of the arrest of remains concerned about the high declared free and fair. international lawyer, Peter Erlinder, level of pre-election incidents and in May 2010. Ban Ki-Moon said has called for swift and transparent In a strong move, indicating official that the arrest subverted orderly investigations. Prior to the elections, disapproval short of severing reconciliation and undermined the the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State diplomatic relations, South Africa mission of the International Criminal for African Affairs, John Carson, recalled its ambassador from Tribunal of Rwanda, which had been said the United States was worried Kigali for consultations on August making fundamental contributions about the crackdown on Rwanda’s 6 2010, following a diplomatic to international peace and justice opposition. The United States is row caused by the shooting of and consequently requested his a close ally of Rwanda and has General, Kayumba Nyamwasa in immediate release. provided a total of about $1 billion Johannesburg. Nyamwasa insists aid to Rwanda during the past the action was an assassination Wider International decade. attempt initiated by Paul Kagame. Community Dynamics: Rwanda had been demanding The international view and his extradition and has denied Foreign observers did not report perception towards Rwanda and involvement in the shooting. The any major irregularities during its leader Paul Kagame is mixed relations between the two countries polling. However, they noted that and divergent. The past decade have further deteriorated following the Rwandan election was marked has witnessed the rise of Rwanda Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s by a significant lack of critical from the ashes of the era of claim that Nyamwasa passed some opposition. The Chairperson of the genocide. Leaders like Britain’s confidential information to members Commonwealth Observer Group former Prime Minister, Tony Blair, of the South African government. and former Secretary General of have described Kagame as a the Organisation for African Unity visionary leader whereas former Rwanda’s most notable improvement (OAU), Dr. Salim Ahmed Salim, US President, Bill Clinton, awarded in diplomatic relations has been described the election as impressive him with a global citizenship with the DRC. Before agreeing to and commended the National award for ‘freeing his people’s cease hostilities and boost security Elections Commission (NEC) of minds’. In 2009 Time Magazine and economic ties on August 2009, Rwanda for holding the election in also included Paul Kagame in its the two neighbors had severed an effective manner. Nonetheless, annual TIME 100 issue, reflecting diplomatic relations for more than the assessment report by the group the world’s most influential leaders. a decade. The two countries had noted obvious shortcomings and Kagame also portrayed as the face also been accusing each other of called for more space for open, supporting hostile militias on their but responsible, debate among >>page 20
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19 of an emerging African leadership Umuvugizi, two Rwandan tabloids considered by the PSC in order to because of his reconciliation critical of the government, have consolidate peace, stability and strategy, his management model, been banned since April 2010 democracy in Rwanda the empowerment of women in for ‘inciting public disorder’. As leadership in Rwanda, and his demonstrated by the June 2010 insistence on self-reliance as a plan murder of Leonard Rugambage, Option 1: of action for transforming a failed editor of Umuvugizi, the Rwandan state into one with a bright future. media are not entirely free. The PSC could work in tandem with Time Magazine also hailed him as the office of the special envoy of one of very few leaders who have The international human rights the UN to the Great Lakes region successfully managed the transition watchdog, Amnesty International, to start talks between the opposing from soldier to statesman. Rwanda’s has on more than one occasion groups in Rwanda and urge the acceptance into the Commonwealth called on Rwanda to take steps to government to increasingly liberalise as a country with no colonial ties to reverse a climate of fear and stated its internal political environment England was yet another diplomatic that the Rwandan government and adopt an open-door policy success. In addition, the country was must ensure that investigations toward exiled and banned political able to forge strong relations with take place into political killings and China, which has made tremendous parties, provided that they reject all the continuing suppression of civil infrastructural investments in links with armed groups. and political rights, particularly Rwanda. In a report dated August restrictions on free speech. 2010, the international anti- Option 2: corruption watchdog, Transparency International, designated Rwanda Scenario Planning: The PSC, in partnership with the as the least corrupt country in East AU Political Affairs Office, could Africa, a claim treated less positively The situation in Rwanda could take encourage moves toward pluralism by critics who argue corruption is a number of courses based on the low because Rwanda is effectively actions taken by the various parties in Rwanda as well as greater a police state. Some critics also to the crisis. These are the possible political freedom of action and contest the wide popularity of scenarios: expression. Kagame, arguing that such adulation stems from the guilt the international Scenario 1: community feels for not having prevented the 1994 genocide. Documentation Ongoing grievances and political killings, coupled with the potential Relevant AU Documents: Civil Society Dynamics: rift within the RPF could lead to enhanced political instability and Statement of the African On August 12, the Rwandan Civil insecurity in Rwanda. Union Observer Mission to the Society Election Observation Presidential Election in Rwanda, Mission (CSEOM) reported that the 9th August 2010 August 9 presidential election was Scenario 2: conducted in a transparent and peaceful atmosphere. The coalition Liberalising the political and public of civil society organisations space and nurturing the ideals for a commended the National Electoral vibrant pluralistic democracy could Commission (NEC) for the success consolidate existing democratic and of the elections which, in their economic gains. view, demonstrated a high level of organisation and adherence to Scenario 3: deadlines throughout the election season, including the establishment Political and ethnic groups whom of numerous polling stations many regard as marginalised may which enhanced accessibility for continue to express dissent and voters. However, there are many opposition against the government if who still doubt the existence of their grievances are not addressed. an independent and vibrant civil society movement in Rwanda, claiming that most of the civil Early Response Options: society organisations are tied into, or legitimised by, the Rwandan Given the above scenarios, government. Umuseso and the following options could be
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The AU Year of Peace: The AU Advisory Council and the Peace Ambassadors
On 16 July 2010, the African Union Against this background, the Year Other planned activities for Peace announced appointments of 14 of Peace and Security will be an Day, September 21, include: peace ambassadors and 12 advisory opportunity for Africans, as well as One minute of silence for peace council members under the auspices African Civil Society Organisations across Africa at a pre-agreed time; of the year of peace, with the slogan and their leaders, to evaluate current relevant developmental work and ‘Make Peace Happen’. The peace efforts being made to bring about community support by members ambassadors and council members and sustain peace and security of the armed and security forces were appointed for the purpose on the continent, with a view to in Africa, such as building bridges, of supporting the African Union strengthening them and launching repairing schools and community Commission’s conflict resolution and new peace and security initiatives. facilities, and providing peace building efforts. In addition, humanitarian assistance; One Day they are expected to advocate the One Goal football games, which On 22nd June 2010, the African ratification and implementation are football or soccer games to Union began the countdown to of various AU instruments and be played across Africa to bring September 21, a day of envisaged commitments, including the African communities together around non-violence and peace across Charter on Democracy, Elections the common goal of peace; and Africa entitled ‘’90 days to Peace and Governance, the mobilisation the implementation of the Make Day in Africa’’. A successful Peace of resources, the generation of Peace Happen Lesson Plan which Day will also demonstrate the popular support and awareness, the entails the utilisation of a special implementation of specific activities commitment and capability of lesson plan about peace and developed by the Commission, such African leadership, in successfully Africa’s aspirations to be free from as encouraging businesses to sign mobilising for peace in the sincere want and fear, to be taught by the Make Peace Happen Industry belief that if peace can be attained schools and colleges throughout Charter, and the encouragement on Peace Day it would be possible Africa. The objective of the Peace of schools to use the Make Peace to achieve permanent peace, as Day event includes drawing Happen Lesson Plan. noted in the AU official press world attention to Africa’s various release, dated 22nd June. The AU in conflict situations and mobilising the same press release quoted the support for efforts to resolve them At a Special Session held on 31st Chairperson of the AU Commission, and more specifically to show August 2009, in Tripoli, Libya, the Jean Ping, who urged African civil solidarity with those affected Assembly of Heads of State and society and the private sector to by such conflicts by providing Government of the African Union join hands with the AU in making assistance where possible. (AU), in Paragraph 9 of the Tripoli peace happen in 2010 and beyond. Declaration SP/Assembly/PS/ The chairperson went on to say that Decl.(1), designated the year 2010 The 26 peace ambassadors and in order to achieve peace between as the Year of Peace and Security advisory council members are nations, non-violence needed on the continent. The declaration prominent Africans drawn from everyone’s involvement. He also emphasised the continued peace various sectors of society: political, challenged every African to take and security challenges facing business, sports, arts, culture and a leap of faith and do something music. For the Advisory Council, Africa. to support the year of peace and all African Nobel Laureates and security, “for none of us is too small other eminent Africans were “We are determined to deal to make a difference”. approached. Twelve Council once and for all with the scourge members have accepted the of conflicts and violence on The September 21 Peace Day is position to date, including Emeritus our continent, acknowledging under way in terms of preparation. Anglican Bishop and South African our shortcomings and errors, Scheduled activities include activist Archbishop Desmond committing our resources and Tutu, the last State President of cessations of hostilities in all our best people, and missing no apartheid-era South Africa F.W. de conflict areas and areas that are opportunity to push forward the Klerk, former Secretary General still experiencing varying levels of agenda of conflict prevention, of the OAU Salim A. Salim, violence; and where the distribution peacemaking, peacekeeping former Chairperson of the African of humanitarian supplies and and post conflict reconstruction. Union Alpha Oumar Konaré, material to communities in conflict We, as leaders, simply cannot renowned international advocate areas, as well as non conflict areas, bequeath the burden of conflicts for women’s and children’s to the next generation of are in critical need of the presence Africans”. of medical and relief services. >>page 22
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The AU Year of Peace: The AU Advisory Council and the Peace Ambassadors rights Graça Machel, mobile Paulina Chiziane, Ghanaian members and peace ambassadors communications entrepreneur and footballer Michael Essien, Somali is, quite simply, “Make Peace champion of good governance model, author, actress and human Happen”. in Africa Mo Ibrahim, and the rights activist Waris Dirie, former 2004 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Ghanaian International football Prof. Wangari Maathai. Notable player and captain Abedi Pele, track African personalities in the areas and field athlete Maria Mutola, of sports, culture, music and the Senegalese singer and percussionist arts were also approached to Youssou N’Dour, and Afro-pop be Peace Ambassadors. They singer-songwriter Salif Keita. include Cameroonian saxophonist and vibraphone player Manu Consequently, the overarching Dibango, Grammy Award- message for all the planned winning Musical Artist and Peace Day activities as well as the activist Angelique Kidjo, Author appointment of the advisory board
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22 Important Forthcoming Dates
9 September 2010: African Union Day
21 September 2010: International Day of Peace and Day of African Year of Peace and Security
25 September 2010: Pan African Women’s Day
September 2010: Millennium Development Goals conference
October 2010: Exercise AMANI Africa Command Post Exercise (CPX) to test effectiveness of African Standby Force
1 December 2010: World AIDS Day
10 December 2010: International Human Rights Day
Country Election Date
Chad National Assembly 28 November 2010
People’s Assembly Shura Council Egypt November 2010 (half of the members)
Equatorial Guinea Presidential December 2010
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23 Contributors to this Volume:
ISS PSC Report Programme: Dr. Duke Kent-Brown, Dr. Solomon Dersso, Hallelujah Lulie, Eden Yohannes Yoseph
ISS African Conflict Prevention Programme, Addis Ababa: Jamila Abdellaoui
Donors: This Report is published through the support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Government of Denmark, the Foundation Open Society Institute, and the Humanity United Foundation. In addition, the Institute for Security Studies receives core support from the Governments of Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands.
As a leading African human security research institution, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) works towards a stable and peaceful Africa characterised by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy and collaborative security and gender mainstreaming.
© 2010, Institute for Security Studies
Copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Institute for Security Studies, and no part may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission, in writing, of the Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute, its trustees, members of the Advisory Council or donors.
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