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CONTENTS OF THIS ISSUE Early Warning Issues for September 1 AU Post-Summit Analysis 14 Regional Security Analysis: Country Analysis: Rwanda 16 Al Shabaab’s rise as a regional and Year of Peace and Security: The international security threat 2 AU Advisory Council and Peace PSC Retrospective – PSC and Ambassadors 21 International Criminal Court (ICC) 9 Important Forthcoming Dates 23 Country Analysis: Burundi 11 No. 14, September 2010 This Report is an independent publication of the Institute for Security Studies. It is also available on the ISS website and can be viewed together with Thematic Reports on the work of the PSC at www.issafrica.org. All documents referred to in this Report can also be found on the ISS website. Peace and Security Council Protocol ‘The PSC shall encourage non-governmental organizations to participate actively in the efforts aimed at promoting peace, security and stability in Africa. When required such organizations may be invited to address the Peace and Security Council’ – Article 20 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the PSC of the African Union Early Warning Issues into the Horn of Africa and Eastern Rwanda African regions and beyond. With for September this, Al Shabaab marked yet another The 9 August polling day was stage in its evolution from a mainly praised by most observers as The scheduled Rotating Chair of nationalist insurgency movement generally peaceful and stable the African Union (AU) Peace into a truly global jihadist group. throughout the country. Specifically, and Security Council (PSC) the report of the AU observer for the month of September is Burundi mission declared that the electoral Equatorial Guinea. In the absence process in Rwanda was free and fair. of a country’s representation at The 24 May Communal elections Nevertheless, the election process, ambassadorial level, an alternate were generally peaceful and the atmosphere in which elections member will chair the Council for witnessed the remarkably well- took place, and the eventual the month. coordinated and active involvement outcome of the elections, were of local civil society. However, criticised and contested by many Al Shabaab’s rise as a regional during the announcement of the of Kagame’s opponents. Giving and international security threat provisional results of these elections, credence to these allegations, various opposition parties, including the months prior to the elections The 7/11 bombings in the Ugandan the FNL and Front for Democracy witnessed a series of attacks, capital Kampala, targeting innocent in Burundi (FRODEBU), announced including killings and arrests, on out- civilians, has drawn conspicuous their rejection of the results, which spoken journalists and opposition attention to the protracted conflict pointed to a landslide victory for figures. in Somalia. The tragic event the incumbent ruling party. The highlighted the deteriorating prospect for the consolidation of security situation in Somalia and peace and stability in Burundi very its expansion into the countries of much depends on the course of the region. It is a clear signal that action that the various opposition Al Shabaab is capable of and has parties that remain outside the begun taking its terrorist attacks process choose to take to address beyond the borders of Somalia their respective concerns. Livingstone Formula ‘Civil Society Organizations may provide technical support to the African Union by undertaking early warning reporting, and situation analysis which feeds information into the decision-making process of the PSC’ – PSC/ PR/(CLX), 5 December 2008, Conclusions of a Retreat of the PSC on a mechanism of interaction between the Council and CSOs. PSC Report Programme, Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa, T: +251-11-372-11-54; F: +251-11-372-59-54; [email protected]; www.issafrica.org actions as threats, not only to the contributing country for the AU REGIONAL SECURITY peace and reconciliation process in AMISOM. Accordingly, he warned ANALYSIS Somalia, but also to regional peace that ‘if they (Uganda and Burundi) and international security. do not take out their AMISOM troops from Somalia, (similar) blasts will continue.’ Al Shabaab’s rise as a regional Previously, in its communiqué of 18 and international security threat February 2009, PSC/PR/BR (CLXX), the PSC noted, albeit without This act of terror came after The 7/11 bombings in the Ugandan naming Al Shabaab, that the acts of repeated threats of an attack or capital Kampala, targeting innocent violence in Somalia ‘undermine the attacks against the two countries. civilians, has drawn conspicuous peace process and stability in the One week before the attack, Sheikh attention to the protracted conflict region as a whole’. Mukhtar Robow Ali, the spiritual in Somalia. The tragic event leader and main spokesperson of Al highlighted the deteriorating Crisis escalation potential Shabaab, called for attacks against security situation in Somalia and Uganda and Burundi. Before the Sheik’s statement, Al Shabaab’s its expansion into the countries of On Sunday evening the 11th of July media arm, al Kataib, Al Shabaab the region. It is a clear signal that 2010, many people were gathered released an English-language video, Al Shabaab is capable of and has in the Ethiopian Village Restaurant directing ‘(the) Mujahideen to make begun taking its terrorist attacks and Kayandodo Rugby Club in the Ugandans their priority (for beyond the borders of Somalia the Ugandan capital, Kampala, to attacks)’. into the Horn of Africa and Eastern watch the concluding 2010 World African regions and beyond. Cup Match between Spain and the Netherlands. Minutes before The 7/11 bombings in Kampala showed Al Shabaab has the ability This vicious act of violence and the end of the match, three bombs to launch a deadly attack, not only the bigger threat that it represents, exploded at the two venues. against countries contributing both to Somalia and the region, The first bomb detonated at the soldiers and military equipment to has prompted regional, continental Ethiopian Restaurant among a AMISOM but also the countries of and international condemnation. crowd of Ugandans, Ethiopians, the region, and indeed illustrated the More importantly, it also provoked Eritreans, Europeans and Americans susceptibility of these countries to high-level discussions on the best and the other two exploded at the such attacks. In future, Al Shabaab possible measures that the AU and Rugby club. may employ a variety of tactics the sub-regional body IGAD may to mount its attacks in the region. take in collaboration with members The picture that emerged was a First, it has the potential to radicalise of the international community. disturbing scene of young civilians, Muslims, particularly Somalis, by killed while sitting peacefully in exploiting their grievances and using white plastic chairs to watch a In a press statement issued on 12 them to launch further attacks in the sporting event, some with their July 2010, the AU Commission region. It is also possible that the bodies torn apart and others with Chairperson, Jean Ping, condemned group may use desperate dissident their drinks still on their laps. In this the terrorist attacks in Kampala in groups or vulnerable individuals to deadliest attack in the history of Al the strongest terms. He also said perpetrate more attacks. One cannot Shabaab and the first such attack it that the tragic incident would give also dismiss the possibility that Al had engineered outside Somalia, 76 impetus to reinforce international Shabaab could send suicide bombers innocent civilians lost their lives and coordination to counter terrorism to the countries in the region. and reinforce the collective resolve many more suffered injuries, some of African states against acts of of them life-changing. Al Shabaab has since been terrorism. In a decision taken at the expanding its jihadist campaign 15th Ordinary Summit, Assembly/ Somalia’s extremist group, Al against the TFG and AMISOM AU/Dec. 294 (XV). 2, the AU Shabaab, which is fighting against and has called on businesses in Assembly similarly condemned ‘the the TFG and the AU Mission Mogadishu, Afgooye and Baidoa despicable terrorist attacks claimed in Somalia, AMISOM, claimed to make huge financial and military by Al Shabaab, that were committed responsibility for the attacks. contributions. Since the 7/11 in Kampala, on 11 July 2010, against In a statement to reporters bombings it has also intensified the innocent civilians.’ While calling on in Mogadishu, Al Shabaab’s fighting in Somalia. It was reported AU member states and the entire spokesperson, Ali Mohamoud Rage, that 52 people died and 129 others international community to isolate declared that: ‘We (Al Shabaab) are were injured in the fighting that took and take all necessary measures behind the attack because we are at place to the north of Mogadishu a against individuals, entities and war with them.’ According to Rage, week after the bombings. states engaged in terrorist acts, this was a retaliatory attack against the Assembly considered such Uganda, which is the major troop- >>page 3 PSC Report Programme, Institute for Security Studies, Addis Ababa, T: +251-11-372-11-54; F: +251-11-372-59-54; [email protected]; www.issafrica.org On 24 August 2010, Al Shabaab This risk is heightened due to the When the Ethiopian troops left carried out a deadly attack in the terror networks that Al-Shabaab Somalia in early 2009, Al Shabaab Capital, Mogadishu, against the TFG. has established and the effective expanded its territorial control Its fighters, disguised as government radicalisation campaign that the to include Baidoa, where the security forces, walked into the Huna organisation is executing in order TFG parliament was based and Hotel in Mogadishu’s Hamarweyne to galvanise support among Somalis Jowhar, which was one of the district and shot on people in the in the diaspora and within extremist TFG’s strongholds.

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