G2 Airport Project Environmental Statement Volume 7: Employment Part 1 of 1 Main Text and Appendix 1 to Appendix 4
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G2 Airport Project Environmental Statement Volume 7: Employment Part 1 of 1 Main Text and Appendix 1 to Appendix 4 March 2008 Working with: Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Review of proposed development 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Stansted Airport and the G2 Airport Project 3 3 Policy context 5 3.1 Introduction 5 3.2 National policies 5 3.3 Regional policies 7 3.4 Local policies 10 4 Consultation 11 5 Construction employment assessment 13 5.1 Introduction 13 5.2 Approach 13 5.3 Definition of the assessment area 14 5.4 Construction employment assessment area: baseline 16 5.5 Construction employment assessment area: base case 18 5.6 G2 Airport Project construction employment 24 5.7 Assessment of construction employment effects 26 5.8 Measures to prevent or reduce effects 27 5.9 Residual effects 28 5.10 Enhancement measures 28 6 Operational employment assessment: approach 29 6.1 Introduction 29 6.2 Defining the operational assessment area 29 7 Stansted related employment: baseline 37 7.1 Introduction 37 7.2 Direct on-airport employment 37 7.3 Direct off-airport employment 40 7.4 Indirect employment 41 7.5 Induced employment 42 7.6 Stansted related employment, 2006 42 7.7 Employment on land required by the G2 Airport Project 42 8 Stansted related employment: forecasts 49 8.1 Introduction and approach 49 8.2 Direct on-Airport employment 49 8.3 Direct off-Airport, indirect and induced employment 52 8.4 Total Stansted related employment forecasts 53 9 Assessment area economy: review of economic performance 55 9.1 Introduction and data sources 55 9.2 Economic overview 55 10 Assessment area economy: future employment 63 10.1 Introduction 63 10.2 Labour supply 63 10.3 Labour demand 64 10.4 Labour supply and demand interaction 65 11 Operational employment assessment 69 11.1 Introduction and approach 69 11.2 Employment effects 69 11.3 Assessment of employment effects 70 11.4 Measures to prevent or reduce employment effects 77 11.5 Residual employment effects 77 11.6 Measures to enhance employment effects 77 12 Assessment summary matrices 81 Glossary and abbreviations 85 Tables Table 1: Forecast passenger numbers (mppa), 2006 to 2030 3 Table 2: Construction effects assessment criteria 14 Table 3: Gross Value Added by region, 2006 16 Table 4: Employment by industry and region, 2006 16 Table 5: Construction employment by sub-division (000s), 2006 17 Table 6: Construction employment by occupation (000s) 17 Table 7: Forecasts of construction employment 19 Table 8: Construction employment growth, 2011 to 2015 19 Table 9: Estimates of construction personnel for Olympic Games 21 Table 10: Demand for construction employment from other major projects 24 Table 11: G2 Airport Project construction employment 26 Table 12: Average daily on-site employment 27 Table 13: Allocation of Stansted employees by county/unitary authority, 2003 30 Table 14: Districts accounting for 1% of Stansted workforce 31 Table 15: Employment in the assessment area using survey totals 33 Table 16: Total Stansted employees in the assessment area, 2003 34 Table 17: Distance travelled to work, 1981 to 2001, England 34 Table 18: Forecast place of residence of Stansted employees, 2021 and 2030, % 35 Table 19: Direct on-Airport employment and passenger throughput 37 Table 20: Distribution of employers and employees at Stansted Airport, 2003 38 Table 21: Characteristics of Stansted Airport workforce 38 Table 22: Average salaries of permanent employees by category of employer 39 Table 23: Occupational grouping of permanent employees 39 Table 24: Stansted and assessment area employment by skill level, % 40 Table 25: Distribution of employment by skill levels at BAA London airports, % 40 Table 26: Stansted related income and employment, 2006 42 Table 27: Employment levels in businesses 44 Table 28: Business located on land required by G2 Airport Project 45 Table 29: Business located on land required by G2 Airport Project 46 Table 30: Turnover of businesses 47 Table 31: Employment in businesses located on land required by G2 Airport Project 47 Table 32: Total employment in businesses located on G2 Airport Project land 47 Table 33: Total jobs affected by G2 Airport Project and requirements 48 Table 34: Air traffic, 2003 – 2030 50 Table 35: Direct on-Airport employment productivity assumptions 50 Table 36: Historic rates of productivity growth,% 51 Table 37: Direct on-Airport employment, 2021, 2030 51 Table 38: Assumptions and employment estimates from other second runway studies 52 Table 39: Stansted related employment forecasts, 2021 and 2030 53 Table 40: Population and labour supply, 2001 - 2006 55 Table 41: Employment data, 2001 – 2005 56 Table 42: Distribution of employment by industry, 2006, % 57 Table 43: Average gross earnings, 2006, £ 57 Table 44: Number and distribution of unemployed by occupation sought, December 2006 60 Table 45: Unemployment rates by occupation, December 2006, % 60 Table 46: National insurance registrations, 2006/7 61 Table 47: Labour supply in the assessment area, 2006, 2021 and 2030 (000s) 64 Table 48: Labour supply sensitivity results (000s), 2006, 2021 and 2030 64 Table 49: Forecast labour demand, assessment area, 2006, 2021, 2030 65 Table 50: Labour demand and supply, assessment area, 2006, 2021 and 2030 (000s) 66 Table 51: Sensitivity analysis of labour supply and demand (000s). 2006, 2021 2030 66 Table 52: Job growth 2001 - 2021 (000s) 67 Table 53: Operational effects: assessment criteria 69 Table 54: Effect of G2 Airport Development in each assessment year 69 Table 55: Stansted related employment as a proportion of assessment area labour demand,% 70 Table 56: Forecast place of residence of additional on-Airport employees, 2021 and 2030 71 Table 57: Unemployment numbers and rates, July 2007 74 Table 58: Unemployment in wards around key stations on the Stansted to London railway line (refer to Figure 12) 76 Table 59: Airport Travelcard price zones and costs 78 Table 60: Assessment summary matrix – construction effects 81 Table 61: Assessment summary matrix – existence and operational effects 83 Figures Figure 1: Ten largest UK airports, terminal passengers (000s), 2006 3 Figure 2: Construction employment assessment area 15 Figure 3: Crossrail construction employment by year 22 Figure 4: Average daily workforce 25 Figure 5: Operational employment assessment area 32 Figure 6: Heathrow Airport, % of employees in assessment area, 1975-2004 35 Figure 7: Index of employment, 1998 to 2006 56 Figure 8: Commuting flows to/from the assessment area, 2001 58 Figure 9: Trend in ILO unemployment rates 59 Figure 10: Trend in unemployment rates, 2001 -2007 59 Figure 11: Selected stations and wards on the Stansted to London Railway Line 75 Figure 12: Travel Card map 79 Appendices Appendix 1 Details of other consultations Appendix 2 Questionnaire issued to businesses on land required by the G2 Airport Project Appendix 3 Projections of households, population and labour supply Appendix 4 Analysis of Travelcard Section 1 Introduction 1 Introduction 1 1.1.1 The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Regulations require that the Environmental Statement (ES) includes a description of the likely significant effects of a development on the population. One of the ways in which the G2 Airport Project would affect the population is through employment. The Airport is an important employment site in the East of England region and the G2 Airport Project is likely to generate a number of types of employment effects: • it would create increased employment at the Airport and in the wider economy during its construction; • it would create increased employment at the Airport and in the wider economy during its operation; and • it would affect employment in businesses which are located on the land required for the G2 Airport Project. 1.1.2 The purpose of this volume of the ES is to assess the likely significant employment effects of the G2 Airport Project. This volume will estimate the employment required during construction and operation of the G2 Airport Project and consider whether there will be sufficient labour available within the local economy to meet the needs of the Airport. The assessment will consider the ways in which employment opportunities at the Airport can be taken up by people in the local economy and will also consider displacement effects within the labour market. The volume will also consider the employment effects which the G2 Airport Project would have on businesses occupying premises on the land that would be taken by the G2 Airport Project. 1.1.3 The employment assessment is structured differently to the other ES volumes as a result of the specific requirements of this topic. There is no assessment of employment effects in 2015 as the G2 Airport Project would just be complete in 2015 and there would not have been sufficient time for significant operational employment to materialise. An assessment is therefore made of the operational employment effects in 2021 and 2030. Adopting 2021 as the first date for assessment is consistent with the end date of the East of England Regional Spatial Strategy2 (RSS) for the region. Analysis of the operational employment effects in 2030 allows an assessment to be made of the completed development. 1.1.4 This volume is structured around the different employment effects as follows: • section 2 sets out a review of the proposed development; • section 3 sets out the policy context for the G2 Airport Project; • section 4 summarises the Scoping Paper and provides feedback from the consultation meetings; • section 5 assesses the employment effects associated with the construction of the G2 Airport Project; • sections 6 - 11 assess the employment effects associated with the operation of the G2 Airport Development, including, at section 7, estimates of the employment that would be lost or displaced as a result of existing businesses located on the land required for the G2 Airport Project; and • a glossary of terms and abbreviations is given on page 85.