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Debt Overhang and Natural Resources: Revisiting the Resource Curse Hypothesis

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Debt Overhang and Natural Resources: Revisiting the Resource Curse Hypothesis ORBIT-OnlineRepository ofBirkbeckInstitutionalTheses Enabling Open Access to Birkbeck’s Research Degree output Debt overhang and natural resources: revisiting the resource curse hypothesis https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/40095/ Version: Full Version Citation: Jones, Yakama Manty (2014) Debt overhang and natural re- sources: revisiting the resource curse hypothesis. [Thesis] (Unpub- lished) c 2020 The Author(s) All material available through ORBIT is protected by intellectual property law, including copy- right law. Any use made of the contents should comply with the relevant law. Deposit Guide Contact: email DEBT OVERHANG AND NATURAL RESOURCES: REVISITING THE RESOURCE CURSE HYPOTHESIS Yakama Manty Jones School of Business, Economics and Informatics Birkbeck College, University of London Thesis submitted to the School of Business, Economics and Informatics in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Birkbeck College, University of London February 2014 1 DECLARATION OF AUTHORSHIP I, Yakama Manty Jones , confirm that the work presented in this thesis ‘Debt Overhang and Natural Resources: Revisiting the Resource Curse Hypothesis’ is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. Signature :____________________ Date :_______________________ 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I wish to thank God for seeing me through this academic journey. A whole lot of gratitude goes to my supervisors Prof. Xiaming Liu and Dr. Paz Estrella Tolentino for their guidance, patience, advice, support and always spot on comments throughout this doctoral journey. I am very thankful to all the other teaching and support staff of the School of Business, Economics and Informatics , Birkbeck College, University of London, especially Dr. Frederick Guy, Prof. John Kelly and Dr. Luca Andriani for their kind comments and suggestions especially on work presented during PHD seminars and conferences. I gratefully acknowledge the assistance provided by Mr Samuel Jamiru Braima of Fourah Bay College, University of Sierra Leone and Mr Alhassan Manasaray of the Public Debt Unit, Ministry of Finance, Sierra Leone during my visits to Sierra Leone to conduct the field work necessary for the writing up of this thesis My thoughts also go out to all the friends I met along the way and with whom I shared so many memorable moments: Lisa Beserve, Stefanie James, Binta Akibo-Betts, Haja Jah, Dalandah Bah, Sadia Bakarr, Abubakarr Jalloh, Sulbob Bah, Donald Bangura, Fatim Mansaray, Aikaterini Valvi and Fadil Sahiti. My thanks goes to my family for all their support in various forms. Extra thanks goes to my dad, Mr. Sanah Johsen Mara for funding my studies. My final acknowledgement goes to my husband, Mr. Herbert Durosimi Jones for his love, prayers, constant motivation, financial support and patience especially during my being away from home in Sierra Leone to pursue this doctoral degree after the wedding!! To those whose names are not mentioned, be rest assured that your contributions no matter how little are greatly appreciated. May God bless you . 3 ABSTRACT Growth literature presents evidence that resource abundant economies comparatively grow less than other economies, giving rise to the ‘Resource Curse Hypothesis’. Many researchers have developed several theories to explain the ‘Resource Curse’ but there are very few explicit considerations of ‘Debt Overhang’ in these explanations. This study concentrates on the ‘Debt Overhang –Resource Curse’ link given the significant relationships between debt sustainability and other resource spending. It also implicitly seeks to test key competing theories. The key contribution is the evaluation of the ‘Resource Curse’ and ‘Debt Overhang’ phenomena simultaneously using mixed methods analysis. This thesis consist of three complementary empirical studies organised in chapters under the ‘Debt Overhang-Resource Curse’ theme: A Panel Data Analysis of Debt Overhang, Natural Resources and Growth in 153 countries from 1970 to 2011; A Time Series Analysis of Sierra Leone’s Debt Overhang, Natural Resource and Growth Experience from 1970 to 2011 and A Perceptions and Documentary Analysis of Debt Overhang, Natural Resources and Growth in Sierra Leone. In Chapter Three, the ‘Debt Overhang –Resource Curse’ hypothesis was tested by estimating a system of simultaneous equations using the Generalised Method of Moments Three - Staged Least Squares estimator for the whole panel and carefully defined subsets. The results confirmed the ‘Debt Overhang –Resource Curse’ hypothesis in the case of least developed countries, mineral rich countries and petroleum rich countries although it failed to excel when the whole panel was examined. The ‘Debt Overhang –Resource Curse’ hypothesis was also confirmed in Chapter Four, when a Structural Vector Autoregressive Model was estimated for Sierra Leone : a resource rich, heavily indebted poor country at the bottom of the Human Development Index, has recently received large economic growth projections. The results for Sierra Leone were further confirmed using cointegration and Granger causality tests. The investigation continued with a perceptions and documentary analysis in Chapter Five. It investigated whether perceptions of Sierra Leoneans provide support for the Debt Overhang –Resource Curse hypothesis by estimating a structural equation model using Partial Least Squares, utilising data collected during a survey of mining communities. The results of the estimations were triangulated with findings from interviews, observations and documentary analysis. This analysis provided support for the hypothesis as well as some complementary theories within the Resource Curse debate. This simultaneous assessment of the impact of both debt overhang and natural resources on growth went beyond quantitative investigations to provide proof of the link shared by these elements. It also made a rationale for a ‘case-by-case’ analysis of economic growth and development phenomena, resulting in policy recommendations with a greater degree of alignment. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration of Authorship 2 Acknowledgement 3 Abstract 4 Table of Contents 5 List of Figures 9 List of Tables 10 CHAPTER ONE: THESIS INTRODUCTION, RESEARCH GAPS, RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND RESEARCH CONTRIBUTION. 1.1 Introduction 11 1.2 Research Gaps 14 1.3 Research Questions 16 1.4 Research Contribution 17 CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE 2.1 Review of the Theoretical Resource Curse-Growth Literature 18 2.2 Review of the Empirical Resource Curse-Growth Literature 23 2.3 Review of the Theoretical Debt Overhang-Growth Literature 39 2.4 Review of the Empirical Debt Overhang –Growth Literature 42 2.5 Review of the Debt overhang-Resource Curse Literature 51 CHAPTER THREE: DEBT OVERHANG, NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS OF 153 COUNTRIES. 3.1 Theoretical Framework and the Model 55 3.2 Model Specification 57 3.3 Explanatory variables and Expected Signs 58 3.4 Data Description 60 3.5 Model Estimation 61 3.6 THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS 3.6.1 The Result of Simultaneous Equations 1970-2011, for Full Panel of Countries 62 3.6.2 The Results of the Simultaneous Equations for the Heavily Indebted Poor 64 Countries 1970-2011 3.6.3 Comparative Analysis of the results of the Simultaneous Equations for the 66 OECD Countries, and Least Developed Countries 1970-2011 3.6.4 Comparative Analysis of results of the Simultaneous Equations for Mineral Rich 70 Countries, Petroleum Rich Countries and OPEC Members 1970-2012 5 3.6.5 The Results of the Simultaneous Equations for Sub-Saharan African Countries 75 1970-2011 CHAPTER FOUR: DEBT OVERHANG, NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF SIERRA LEONE’S EXPERIENCE. 4.0 INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW 78 4.1 Introduction 78 4.2 Sierra Leone Literature Review 79 4.3 METHODOLOGY 4.3.1 Theoretical Framework and the Model 83 4.3.2 Data Description and Variables Expected Signs 85 4.3.3 Model Estimation 85 4.4 RESULTS OF THE STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL FOR SIERRA LEONE, 1970-2011 4.4.1 Impulse Response Functions 88 4.4.2 Variance Decompositions 93 4.4.3 Unit Root Tests 95 4.4.4 Cointegration Tests 1970-2011 and Results 96 4.4.5 Granger Causality Test 1970-2011 and Results 98 4.5 CONCLUSION 100 CHAPTER FIVE: DEBT OVERHANG, NATURAL RESOURCES AND GROWTH IN SIERRA LEONE: A PERCEPTION AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS 5.0 Introduction 101 5.1 METHODOLOGY ANDEMPIRICAL ESTIMATION 5.1.1 Theoretical Framework 104 5.1.2 The Model 105 5.1.3 Model Specification 108 5.1.4 Data 112 5.1.5 Model Estimation 114 5.2 THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS 5.2.1 The Outer Measurement Model 117 5.2.2 The Inner Structural Model 122 6 5.4 ANALYSIS OF DOCUMENTS 5.4.1 Analysis of Mining Agreements 129 5.4.2 Analysis of Company Reports 143 5.4.3 Analysis of Company Media Articles 154 5.5 TRIANGULATING THE RESULTS 5.5.1 Empirical Results and Mining Agreements 161 5.5.2 Empirical Results and Company Reports 165 5.5.3 Empirical Results and Media Articles 168 CHAPTER SIX: THESIS CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Thesis Conclusion 173 6.2 Policy Recommendations 176 6.3 Research Limitations 192 References 193 Appendices Appendix 1. Country List 246 Appendix 2. System Residual Cross-Correlations at Lag 12 248 Appendix 3 SVAR Residual Serial Correlation Lm Tests 248 Appendix 4. Sample of Survey Questionnaire 249 Appendix 5. Selected Pictures from Field Work 254 Appendix 6. Summary Data Analysis of Survey Data 266 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: GDP Accumulated responses to impulses 89
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