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Pole Creek and Bald Mountain Fires Facilitated Learning Analysis

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Pole Creek and Bald Mountain Fires Facilitated Learning Analysis Pole Creek and Bald Mountain Fires Facilitated Learning Analysis The Pole Creek Fire on September 12, 2018. “‘Modified Suppression’ is a spectrum. ‘Confine/Contain’ is the creation of a box. They are not synonymous, yet not dissimilar.” Type 3 Incident Commander “Without planning for the worst-case scenario, we were constantly behind the power curve.” Firing Boss “We’re operating so far out of climatology. I’ve never seen it before.” Great Basin Predictive Services “I have never seen this before! How do we learn from this and act differently?” Forest Supervisor 1 2 Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Background: UWF Fire Response Culture ................................................................................................. 6 The Story ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 The Bald Mountain Fire ............................................................................................................................. 7 August 24: Bald Mountain Fire, the Early Days......................................................................................... 8 September 6: Pole Creek Fire Ignites ........................................................................................................ 9 September 7: Implementing the Plan ..................................................................................................... 11 September 8: Benign Weather ............................................................................................................... 12 September 9: Connecting the Dots ......................................................................................................... 12 September 10: Activity Picks Up ............................................................................................................. 13 September 11: Day 2 of Red Flag Warnings ........................................................................................... 16 September 12: Everything Changes ........................................................................................................ 18 September 12, 2130: Pole Creek Blows Up ............................................................................................ 19 September 12-13: Bald Mountain Blows Up .......................................................................................... 19 September 13, 0100: Pole Creek Slows .................................................................................................. 20 September 13: Bald Mountain IC Transitions ......................................................................................... 20 September 13: Continued . ................................................................................................................. 21 WFDSS Decisions ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Lessons Learned by Participants of the Incidents ....................................................................................... 25 Communication ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Preparedness .......................................................................................................................................... 25 Operations .............................................................................................................................................. 25 Conditions that Influenced Decision-Making .............................................................................................. 26 Condition #1 ........................................................................................................................................... 26 Evolution of Fire Response ................................................................................................................. 26 Evolution of Fire Policy – Effects on Terminology............................................................................... 27 Condition #2 ........................................................................................................................................... 29 Organizational Structures and Processes on Decision-Making ........................................................... 31 Condition #3 ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Rigor in Decision-Making Processes ................................................................................................... 32 Lack of a Risk Informed Decision-Making Process .............................................................................. 32 3 Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 33 Persons who Participated in the FLA Team and Writing this Report .......................................................... 35 Appendix A: More Background on the UWF Fire Response Culture .......................................................... 36 Strategic Incident Management ............................................................................................................. 36 ‘Modified Suppression’ Option ............................................................................................................... 36 Fire Response Culture Successes ............................................................................................................ 37 Appendix B: UWF Direction to the Districts Concerning ‘Modified Suppression’ ...................................... 38 Appendix C: Guidance from the Regional Office for the Use of Red/Green Maps in the Intermountain Region ......................................................................................................................................................... 40 Risk/Planned Response (RED/GREEN) SPATIAL PLANNING MAP ........................................................... 40 Appendix D: Chronology of Fire Management Policy ................................................................................. 41 Appendix E: Climatology and Drought Analysis .......................................................................................... 44 Fuel and Climate Conditions ................................................................................................................... 44 Weather .................................................................................................................................................. 47 Summary ................................................................................................................................................. 50 Appendix F: Potential Control Locations (PCL) and Suppression Difficulty Index (SDI) .............................. 51 Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 51 Methods .................................................................................................................................................. 52 Model Results ......................................................................................................................................... 52 References .............................................................................................................................................. 53 Appendix G: Fire Behavior .......................................................................................................................... 60 Bald Mountain – Projected and Observed Fire Behavior ....................................................................... 60 Bald Mountain – Expected Fire Behavior ................................................................................................ 64 Pole Creek – Projected and Observed Fire Behavior .............................................................................. 66 Pole Creek – Expected Fire Behavior ...................................................................................................... 70 Research Fire Products and Analysis ...................................................................................................... 73 4 Figure 1 – Smoky view from the Strawberry Reservoir Visitor Center on September 13. Introduction In September of 2018, the Pole Creek and Bald Mountain Fires on the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache National Forest (UWF) in Utah rapidly grew in response to dry fuels and strong winds. The fires and their smoke were visible to the majority of Utah’s residents in the greater Salt Lake City area. Over 6,000 citizens from adjacent communities were evacuated from their homes. Private businesses were disrupted for several weeks. Forest recreation and the businesses that rely on tourism dollars were affected. Ultimately, these fires grew together to burn an area of 120,851 acres. The story of how these fires – initially considered by skilled fire managers to be remote, high elevation fires unlikely to ever threaten communities or infrastructure – were able to grow so quickly and become so large is the
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