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POLITICAL OPPOSITION IN UKRAINE AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS By Viktoriya Thomson, BEd (Math), MPA. A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Political Science Carleton University Ottawa, Ontario Canada Viktoriya Thomson 2008 Library and Bibliotheque et 1*1 Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Ottawa ON K1A0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-40614-4 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-40614-4 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, prefer, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform, et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be included Bien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. •*• Canada Abstract This thesis analyzes the effectiveness of the political opposition in Ukraine. This study reviews the parties that comprised the "Orange team" and their failure to create a coalition government after the presidential election "Orange revolution" in 2004 and the 2006 parliamentary election. An effective political opposition is defined as a political opposition that has an alternative program to that of the government, and the personnel to govern. To be effective the parties of the opposition should be cohesive, united and cooperative. This thesis argues that despite their electoral success during the Orange revolution the parties of the Orange team were not effective as the opposition as defined in theoretical terms. The institutional and civic framework of Ukraine, which consists of the constitution, the electoral system, the political party system and the mass political culture prevent the development of the effective political opposition in Ukraine. For that reason the parties' failure to create a coalition government was the result of their ineffectiveness as political opposition. ii Acknowledgement I would like to thank my family for all the support and patience that they gave me during my study and in the process of working on this thesis. I am very grateful to my supervisor, Professor Joan DeBardeleben, for her help, encouragement and advice throughout my time at Carleton and especially during the period of my thesis. I admire her dedication to and knowledge of post-Soviet countries and their emerging civil society. This thesis is dedicated to Nicholas, who gives me strength and happiness every day. iii Table of Contents Abstract i Acknowledgements ii Table of Contents iii List of Abbreviations iv List of Figures v List of Tables vi INTRODUCTION 1 Chapter 1. Theory on the study of the political opposition and its effectiveness 10 1.1. Background of the study of the political opposition 13 1.2. Robert Dahl on the political opposition in Western Democracies 14 1.3. Ludger Helms on the institutionalized political opposition in modern parliamentary democracies 19 1.4. Leonard Shapiro and Gordon Skilling on the political opposition in one-party states 22 1.5. Conclusion 25 Chapter 2. Political party system in Ukraine and the effectiveness of the political opposition 26 2.1. Overview of the multiparty political system 30 2.2. Origin of the parties of the Orange team 36 2.2.1. The Socialist Party of Ukraine 36 2.2.2. The bloc Yulia Tymoshenko 38 2.2.3. The bloc Our Ukraine 40 2.3. Social base of the parties of the Orange team 43 2.4. Party competition 45 2.4.1. 2002 parliamentary election 45 2.4.2. 2006 parliamentary election 49 2.5. Conclusion 53 Chapter 3. Constitution of Ukraine and the effectiveness of the political opposition 56 3.1. Overview of the Constitution of Ukraine 58 3.2. Constitution during the 2002 parliamentary election 61 3.2.1. The power of the parliament 61 3.2.2. The power of the president 65 3.2.3. The system of appointing and removing the government 66 3.3. Constitution during the 2004 presidential election 68 3.4. Constitution during the 2006 parliamentary election 70 iv 3.4.1. The power of the parliament 70 3.4.2. The role of the president 76 3.4.3. The system of appointing and removing the government 78 3.5. Conclusion 80 Chapter 4. The electoral system in Ukraine and the effectiveness of the political opposition 83 4.1. Overview of the electoral systems in Ukraine 88 4.2. The mixed electoral system, 2002 91 4.2.1. The system of candidate nomination 91 4.2.2. The electoral formula 97 4.2.3. The coefficient of disproportionality of the electoral formula 97 4.3. The proportional representation electoral system, 2006 104 4.3.1. The system of candidate nomination 104 4.3.2. The electoral formula 107 4.3.3. The coefficient of disproportionality of the electoral formula 107 4.4. Conclusion 109 Chapter 5. Political culture and the effectiveness of the political opposition in Ukraine 112 5.1. Political culture and the effectiveness of the political opposition 116 5.2. Overview of the political culture in Ukraine 118 5.3. The orientation towards governmental structures 121 5.3.1. Regime orientation 121 5.3.2. Orientation towards governmental institutions 122 5.4. The orientation towards others in the political system 128 5.4.1. Political trust 128 5.4.2. Political identifications 129 5.5. The orientation towards own political activity 132 5.5.1. Political awareness 132 5.5.2. Political efficacy 133 5.6. Age and Education as predictors of the political culture 135 5.7. Mass political culture and the political elite 138 5.8. Conclusion 139 CONCLUSION 141 BIBLIOGRAPHY 149 v List of Abbreviations CECU Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine BYT BlocYulia Tymoshenko NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe Our Ukraine Bloc Viktor Yushchenko Our Ukraine Rada Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine PR Proportional representation SMD Single member electoral district UP University Press VVR Vidomosty Verkhovnoyi Rady Ukrainy WTO World Trade Organization vi List of Figures 2.1 Number of Political Parties in the Elections, 1998-2006 32 2.2 Political Participation in Ukraine, 2004 33 2.3 Level of Trust in Political Parties, 1994-2004 34 3.1 Parliamentary Factions in the Rada, IV convocation 64 4.1 Party Affiliation of the Candidates, 2002 Parliamentary Election 94 4.2 Party Affiliation of the Candidates, 2006 Parliamentary Election 106 5.1 Belief in the Strong Leadership among Age Groups, 2004 122 5.2 Feelings towards Citizenship in Ukraine, 2002-2006 127 5.3 Political Participation in Ukraine, 2004 130 5.4 Political Identification in Ukraine, 2004 131 5.5 Level of Political Knowledge in Ukraine, 2002-2006 133 5.6 Political Efficacy in Ukraine, 2002-2006 134 5.7 Level of Influence on the Political Process, 2004 135 vn List of Tables 2.1 Political Parties of the Orange team 43 3.1 Results of the 2002 Parliamentary Election 62 3.2 Prime-Ministers of Ukraine, Presidential Candidates 68 4.1 Electoral Systems in Ukraine, 1994-2006 90 4.2 Number of Candidates, SMD, by Regions of Ukraine, 2002 Parliamentary Election 93 4.3 Threshold of Inclusion, SMD, 2002 Parliamentary Election 95 4.4 Deviation of Proportionality, SMD, 2002 Parliamentary Election 99 4.5 Results of the 2002 Parliamentary Election 101 4.6 Deviation of Proportionality, PR list, 2002 Parliamentary Election 102 4.7 Deviation of Proportionality, PR list, 2006 Parliamentary Election 108 5.1 Level of Political Trust in Ukraine, 2002-2006 125 5.2 Level of Interpersonal Trust in Ukraine, 2002-2006 129 5.3 Political Trust, Political Activity according to Age and Education, 2004 136 Vlll INTRODUCTION In the fall of 2004 the world's attention was fixed upon the orange clad protestors who occupied the historic Maydan square in Kyiv, Ukraine. The well organized, sympathetic citizens spoke eloquently, individually and collectively, against the barely concealed electoral fraud that saw a pro-Russian, government supported candidate, Viktor Yanukovich, declared President.1 In the ensuing days and weeks, the protest spread and organs of state, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Central Electoral Commission of Ukraine (CECU) and the regional court of Kiev, belatedly responded to the growing protests and this led to the cancellation of the election results. However, it was the opposition, led by former prime-minister Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, who united the majority of citizens and disparate political parties to take concerted action against the initial results.