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The National Climate and Water Briefing

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The National Climate and Water Briefing The National Climate and Water Briefing 24 January 2013 Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Agenda • 2012 climate review • Climate conditions and outlook • Hydrologic conditions and outlook • Severe weather season to date Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Climate conditions and outlook Dr Karl Braganza Manager Climate Monitoring Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Climate conditions and outlook • Recent and 2012 climate conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre ‘A year of two halves’ – rainfall January–March rainfall deciles April–December rainfall deciles • Annual rainfall 476 mm, 11 mm above average • A very wet first 3 months, the remainder dry • 47 per cent of 2012’s rain fell in Jan–Mar • In terms of anomalies: • Jan–Mar rain was 70 mm above average • Apr–Dec rain was 59 mm below average • State totals within 10 per cent of average except South Australia Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre ‘A year of two halves’ – temperature Annual mean temperature Monthly mean temperature deciles • 2012 started cool, finished very warm • Annual mean slightly above average 0.11 °C • Jan–Jul generally cool, especially March • Warmer-than-average from August: • Nationally-averaged Sep–Dec maxima warmest on record • Annual maxima 0.51 °C above average, minima 0.28 °C below average Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Long-term temperature anomalies • Globally, 2012 was the ninth-warmest year on record at 0.46 °C above average • Globally, the most recent 10 years (2003–2012) were the equal- second-warmest 10-year period on record • For Australia, it was the fifth warmest 10-year period • Australia has only experienced one cooler-than-average year in the last decade (2011) • Globally and for Australia, minima are warming faster than maxima Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Long-term temperature anomalies • Globally, 2012 was the ninth-warmest year on record at 0.46 °C above average • Globally, the most recent 10 years (2003–2012) were the equal- second-warmest 10-year period on record • For Australia, it was the fifth warmest 10-year period • Australia has only experienced one cooler-than-average year in the last decade (2011) • Globally and for Australia, minima are warming faster than maxima Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Shift in the frequency of record setting temperatures Frequency of record high (red) and low (blue) max temperature Frequency of record high (red) and low (blue) min temperature Daytime temperature Night–time temperature 25 25 ) 15 15 5 5 -5 -5 stations/year -15 -15 ( (stations/year) (stations/year) Number of records records of Number Number of records -25 -25 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Year Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Fire weather Change in the annual forest fire danger index • Weather conducive to the spread and intensification of wild fire • Increasing at around half of the monitoring sites studied • Longer fire season extended in November and March Satellite image of fires in New South Wales Solid purple shows increase in fire weather Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Australian cool season has been drier Winter rainfall anomalies (mm/year) for Autumn rainfall anomalies (mm/year) southwestern Australia since 1900 (from for southeastern Australia since 1900 1961–1990 base) (from 1961–1990 base) ) 300 200 Winter Rainfall Anomaly - Southwestern Australia Autumn Rainfall Anomaly - Southeastern Australia 250 mm 150 mm) ( 200 100 150 100 50 50 0 0 Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Anomaly Rainfall Rainfall Anomaly (mm) Anomaly Rainfall anomalies -50 -50 -100 -100 -150 -150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Year Rainfall Australian cool season rainfall deciles Rainfall anomalies ( anomalies Rainfall Year (November 1997–March 2012) Year Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Pattern of long-term rainfall decline April–September (1997–2011) Rainfall since October 2010 October 2010–March 2011 April 2011–September 2011 October 2011–March 2012 April–September 2012 October–Dec 2012 Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Last four month’s minimum temperature September–December 2012 minimum deciles September–December 2012 minimum anomalies • Minimum temperatures were warm out west, but average to cool over much of eastern Australia Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Last four month’s maximum temperature September–December 2012 maximum deciles September–December 2012 maximum anomalies • September to December 2013 was the warmest such period on record Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Last four month’s rainfall September–December 2012 rainfall deciles September–December 2012 rainfall totals • Extremely dry since mid-year across eastern Australia and Tasmania • Long lead in curing (drying) time for vegetation that has been boosted by two years of exceptional summer rainfall Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre January rainfall to-date January 2013 rainfall to date January 2013 rainfall to date percentage of normal • Very little to no rain across most of the continent except the southwest Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre The ongoing heat – January 2013 heatwave Land-surface temperature January 1–8 • Temperatures >48 °C with highest maximum of 49.6 °C at Moomba in South Australia • Over 70 per cent of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C • 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of 40.33 °C set a new record, previous highest 40.17°C set in 1972 • Sequence of Australian temperatures above 39 °C of 7 days, and above 38 °C of 11 days straight Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre The ongoing heat – January 2013 heatwave Maximum temperature anomaly – January so far • Temperatures >48 °C with highest maximum of 49.6 °C at Moomba in South Australia • Over 70 per cent of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C • 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of 40.33 °C set a new record, previous highest 40.17°C set in 1972 • Sequence of Australian temperatures above 39 °C of 7 days, and above 38 °C of 11 days straight Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre The ongoing heat – January 2013 heatwave Highest maximum temperature – January so far • Temperatures >48 °C with highest maximum of 49.6 °C at Moomba in South Australia • Over 70 per cent of the continent recording temperatures in excess of 42 °C • 7 January 2013 Australian daily max temperature of 40.33 °C set a new record, previous highest 40.17°C set in 1972 • Sequence of Australian temperatures above 39 °C of 7 days, and above 38 °C of 11 days straight Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Climate conditions and outlook • Recent and 2012 climate conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre ENSO outlook for 2012–13: Neutral, El Niño, La Niña? • Neutral state is when the central Pacific is within approximately 0.8 °C of normal • Simple average of seven key models, currently very close to normal Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly Sea surface temperature difference from average Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Climate conditions and outlook • Recent and 2012 climate conditions • Current and forecast state of key climate drivers • Outlook for rainfall and temperature Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Rainfall outlook February to April 2013 • Wetter than normal for northern Queensland and a large part of southern and western Western Australia • Drier for a small region in eastern Australia and South Australia Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Temperature outlooks for February to April 2013 Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Hydrological conditions and outlook • Soil moisture • Water storages • Seasonal streamflow forecasts Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre December soil moisture and catchment streamflows Upper layer • very much above average in Western Australia and parts of Northern Territory, average to very much below average elsewhere Lower layer • still very much above average over much of the country , average to very Upper layer Lower layer much below average for the south Observed December streamflow Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Water storage levels – current status Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre water.bom.gov.au Low or near median flows more likely Victoria Southern New South Wales Southern New South Wales Victoria Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Low or near median flows more likely Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Southern Queensland Northern New South Wales Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Low or near median flows more likely Cape York Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Peninsula Northern Queensland Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Key points • After two-and-a-half years of above average rainfall and cooler temperatures, a dramatic reversal occurred in mid 2012 • Conditions have returned to those experience in the decade or more up to 2009 • Severe heat and fire weather so far this summer • Outlook favouring cooler but dry conditions from February through April • Low or near median January to March flows most likely for the majority of forecast sites Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Severe weather season to date Alasdair Hainsworth Head of Weather Services Branch Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Agenda • Summary of events • Weather trends • Fire weather • Tropical weather • Severe thunderstorms • Outlook Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre Summary of events • Severe thunderstorms in Brisbane 16–17 November • National heatwave late December and first half of January • Extreme–catastrophic fire weather conditions most states • Four tropical cyclones: • Mitchell – stayed offshore northwest Western Australia • Narelle – stayed offshore
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