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Papua New Guinea COUNTRY REPORT Papua New Guinea The full publishing schedule for Country Reports is now available on our web site at http://www.eiu.com/schedule. 3rd quarter 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery EIU Electronic New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Jeremy Eagle Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases NewsEdge Corporation (US) Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Tel: (1.718) 229 3000 World Microfilms Publications Tel: (44.20) 7825 8000 (UK) DIALOG (US) CD-ROM Tel: (44.20) 7266 2202 Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 The Dialog Corporation (US) LEXIS-NEXIS (US) SilverPlatter (US) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.20) 7930 6900 Copyright © 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 1366-4085 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Papua New Guinea 1 Contents 3 Summary 4 Political structure 5 Economic structure 6 Outlook for 1999-2000 12 The political scene 18 Economic policy 29 Foreign trade and payments 33 Quarterly indicators and trade data List of tables 8 Forecast summary 11 Commodity prices 19 Central government budget 23 Consumer price index 27 Kutubu crude oil, 1999 29 Current account 32 Kina:$ exchange rate, 1999 33 Quarterly indicators of economic activity 34 Direction of trade 34 Domestic exports List of figures 9 Gross domestic product 9 Kina real exchange rates 23 Consumer prices 27 World oil prices 29 Current account 30 Exports EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 . Papua New Guinea 3 July 19th 1999 Summary 3rd quarter 1999 Outlook for 1999-2000 The new government should enjoy a period of relative stability after the recent political turmoil. The new prime minister is unlikely to endorse the Taiwan aid- for-recognition agreement. The growth forecast for 1999 has been lowered as a result of rising inflation and higher interest rates. The kina should stabilise once external funding arrives, which is likely later this year. The current account will remain in surplus in 1999. The political scene The controversial Bill Skate resigned as prime minister on July 7th. Sir Mekere Morauta was elected by parliament to replace him after a series of sudden political shifts by mercurial MPs. Joseph Kabui has been elected president of the Bougainville Peoples’ Congress, but some rebels remain outside the peace process. In a humiliating climbdown, the government has agreed to pay Sandline Kina13m to settle the 1997 mercenary scandal. Economic policy The former government introduced new measures in an attempt to rescue the falling currency. A much-publicised soverign bond offering is languishing. Ex- ternal funding to support the budget looks likely. Fiscal and monetary policies have been tightened. VAT finally took effect on July 1st. The economy The economy grew modestly in 1998. Inflation has remained high this year as the currency has weakened. Interest rates are rising again. The Port Moresby stock exchange has opened for trading, but only a handful of companies have listed so far. Agriculture and mining Demand for logs is increasing, as are prices, providing an important boost to exports. A major palm-oil share float has been abandoned because of fear of trade sanctions by China. Environmental problems may force the closure of the giant OK Tedi copper and gold mine. Oil prices have been rising dramati- cally, but gold and copper prices have slumped. The gas pipeline project to Australia is moving ahead. Foreign trade and The current account was in surplus in 1998. The decline in both the value of payments the kina and the level of foreign reserves has continued. Political and eco- nomic turmoil has led to capital flight. Editor: Leo Abruzzese All queries: Tel: (44.20) 7830 1007 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 Next report: Our next Country Report will be published in October EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 4 Papua New Guinea Political structure Official name Independent State of Papua New Guinea Form of state Constitutional monarchy Head of state Queen Elizabeth II, represented by the governor-general, who is nominated by the national parliament The executive The National Executive Council, presided over by the prime minister, has executive powers; the prime minister is appointed by the head of state on the proposal of parliament National legislature Unicameral national parliament; its 109 members (currently 104 are sitting, with five va- cancies) are elected for a period of five years, 89 representing “open” constituencies and the rest representing 19 provincial constituencies and the capital district Provincial government Each of the 19 provinces has its own government which may levy taxes to supplement grants received from the national government Legal system Series of regional and magistrates’ courts leading to a Supreme Court at the apex National elections June 1997; next election due by June 2002 National government Sir Mekere Morauta, the leader of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM), was elected prime minister by parliament on a vote of 99:5 on July 14th 1999. He leads a coalition government consisting principally of the PDM and the newly formed Advance PNG party. Sir Mekere succeeded Bill Skate, who resigned on July 7th Main political organisations People’s Democratic Movement (PDM); Papua New Guinea First (PNGF); Advance PNG; People’s National Congress; People’s Progress Party (PPP); Pangu Pati Main members of the National The new government appointed a caretaker cabinet shortly after it took office, with the Executive Council prime minister and deputy prime minister temporarily assuming control of many of the ministries. Most of these positions are expected to change as the government organises Prime minister & minister for defence, Treasury, internal revenue, foreign affairs, forests & Bougainville affairs Mekere Morauta Deputy prime minister & minister for industrial relations, education, culture & science, & health John Pundari Key ministers Agriculture, mining, fisheries & livestock Michael Nali Justice Herowa Agiwa Petroleum, energy & transport Mao Zeming Provincial affairs Bart Philemon Trade, tourism, commerce & industry Fabian Pok Central bank governor Morea Vele EIU Country Report 3rd quarter 1999 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1999 Papua New Guinea 5 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998a GDP at market prices (Kina bn) 5.3 6.3 6.9 6.8 7.8 GDP ($ bn) 5.2 4.9 5.2 4.7 3.8 Real GDP growthb (%) 5.2 –3.6 3.5 –4.6 2.5 Consumer price inflation (av; %) 2.9 17.3 11.6 3.9 13.6c Population (m) 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.3 Merchandise exports fob ($ m) 2,632 2,657 2,512 2,160 1,676 Merchandise imports fob ($ m) 1,325 1,262 1,513 1,483 1,022 Current-account balance ($ m) 402 492 189 –192 53 Reserves excl gold ($ m) 96 261 584 363 193c Total external debt ($ bn) 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 Debt-service ratio, paid (%) 30.8 20.8 12.7 14.4 23.4 Exchange rate (av; Kina:$) 1.011 1.280 1.319 1.438 2.074c July 16th 1999 Kina2.58:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1998a % of total Components of gross domestic product 1998a % of total Agriculture 26.6 Private consumption 47.9 Mining & quarrying 23.6 Government consumption 17.1 Manufacturing 9.0 Investment 23.2 Construction 4.1 Exports of goods & services 60.4 Electricity, gas & water 1.3 Imports of goods & services –48.9 Services 35.4 GDP at market prices incl change in stocks 100.0 GDP at factor cost 100.0 Principal exports fob 1997 $ m Principal imports cif 1994 $ m Crude oil 592.6 Machinery & transport equipment 442.9 Gold 499.8 Manufactured goods 334.0 Logs 284.6 Food & live animals 204.2 Coffee 226.6 Chemicals 85.9 Copper 180.7 Mineral fuels & lubricants 40.8 Palm oil 144.0 Total incl othersd 1,526.5 Total incl othersd 2,127.5 Main destinations of exports 1997 % of total Main origins of imports 1997 % of total Australia 31.9 Australia 51.0 Japan 20.6 Singapore 11.5 Germany 8.8 Japan 9.0 South Korea 6.4 US 6.7 UK 6.3 New Zealand 4.3 China 3.2 Malaysia 2.3 a EIU estimates.
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