Conflict-Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight Prakash Adhikari
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University of New Mexico UNM Digital Repository Political Science ETDs Electronic Theses and Dissertations 8-30-2011 Conflict-Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight Prakash Adhikari Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/pols_etds Recommended Citation Adhikari, Prakash. "Conflict-Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight." (2011). https://digitalrepository.unm.edu/ pols_etds/3 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Electronic Theses and Dissertations at UNM Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science ETDs by an authorized administrator of UNM Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. i CONFLICT-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT, UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSES OF FLIGHT by PRAKASH ADHIKARI B.A. Honors, North Eastern Hill University, Shillong, India, 1991 M.A., Economics, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu Nepal, 1997 M.A., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2007 DISSERTATION Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Political Science The University of New Mexico Albuquerque, New Mexico July, 2011 ii DEDICATION To my late parents. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to thank my dissertation committee especially its chair, Wendy L. Hansen. Without her expert mentoring, unwavering patience, selfless guidance, inspiration and friendship, this project would remain an unrealized dream. I am also indebted to Lonna R. Atkeson, William D. Stanley, and Alok K. Bohara. They are wonderful mentors, who offered incisive comments and feedback that improved the analytical rigor of my project and the clarity of my presentation. Thanks are also due to many of the faculty members in the Department of Political Science at the University of New Mexico for their help and suggestions throughout my graduate work. The theoretical and empirical training they provided me lie at the core of this research. All remaining errors are my own. I would like to thank all of the 1804 individuals in Nepal who gave their time to respond to my questionnaire and shared their stories. As promised, their identities have been withheld and none of the respondents are named in this dissertation. Though I wish it were possible, I cannot give space to all of those voices. What I have presented here is an aggregate view of the painful and important stories shared with me. I hope that my interest and understanding were of some comfort and that the findings presented here will be helpful for policy makers in Nepal as they address the problems the displaced individuals continue to face. My fieldwork in Nepal, on which this dissertation is based, would have been impossible without the tremendous support of the Informal Sector Service Center (INSEC). I am grateful to Subodh Raj Pyakurel and Bijay Raj Gautam, Chairperson and iv Executive Director respectively of INSEC, who granted me access to their office space and expert staff. I am indebted to Khadga Raj Joshi, Bhola Mahat, Madan Paudel who succeeded Madhu Panthi, Krishna Gautam, and Som Raj Thapa, regional coordinators respectively of INSEC’s regional offices in Dhangadhi, Nepalgunj, Pokhara, Kathmandu, and Biratnagar for their friendship and cooperation. I thank them for the opportunity to employ their excellent district representatives and well qualified enumerators who assisted me in the collection of data for this project. Thanks are also due to Rajan and Buddhi bhai in Nepalgunj, Madhu bhai in Pokhara and Pitamber bhai in Biratnagar for an exceptionally meticulous assistance during my fieldwork. I would also like to acknowledge the financial support that a number of institutions provided for this project. First of all, the Department of Political Science at the University of New Mexico granted me assistantships throughout my graduate study. Few students are blessed with some financial freedom during graduate training and I am indebted to the department for this luxury. I also acknowledge the financial support of the National Science Foundation (SES-0819494), Clyde E. and Garnet G. Starkey Scholarship, Graduate Dean's Dissertation Year Fellowship, Regents Graduate Fellowship and various travel grants from the University of New Mexico, and the Dylan Balch-Lindsay Memorial Graduate Fellowship from the Department of Political Science. I am also thankful to a group of graduate colleagues and friends at the University of New Mexico. Nick Rowell, Phillip Hultquist and Steven Samford have contributed in many ways, formally and informally, to my intellectual growth and the development of this research. Thanks are also due to the members of the IR Workshop and the Study Group in the Department of Political Science for their invaluable input on this project. v Above all, without the support of my wonderful wife, Niraja, this dissertation would not have been completed. Her sacrifice, endurance and love as well as constant reminders of the wonderful life we can enjoy after its completion have been the sources of motivation to finish this project. I am grateful to her. vi CONFLICT-INDUCED DISPLACEMENT, UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSES OF FLIGHT by Prakash Adhikari B.A. Honors, Economics, North Eastern Hill University, Shillong India, 1991 M.A., Economics, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu Nepal, 1997 M.A., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2007 Ph.D., Political Science, University of New Mexico, 2011 ABSTRACT An often forgotten, but very significant and lasting consequence of civil war is forced migration. Violent conflict around the world forces millions of people to flee their homes every year, placing significant burdens on the international community as well as home governments in dealing with the plight of these forgotten populations. But for every person that flees a conflict situation, there are also many people who stay behind, raising important questions for researchers and policy makers alike. Building on existing cross- national studies that emphasize a ‘choice-centered’ approach to the study of forced migration, I investigate variation in subnational and individual level behavior in order to better understand the factors that affect people’s choices under a highly dangerous circumstance like civil war. Using secondary and primary data collected through fieldwork in Nepal, I employ multivariate analysis to explain variation in forced migration across districts and individuals in terms of the impact of such factors as vii violence, economic opportunity, physical infrastructure, geographical terrain, and social networks. In addition, I explore the behavior of individuals in terms of their use of possible coping mechanisms that allow them to stay in their homes. A study of why people flee during conflict is incomplete without also understanding the behavior of people who do not flee. The empirical results provide new insights into subnational variation and individual-level behavior not captured in large-n cross-national studies. The present study demonstrates that subnational and individual-level variations in forced migration are affected by the conditions people find themselves in as well as the opportunities that their situations present to them. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1–Introduction.................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Current state of research ....................................................................................... 4 1.1.1 Armed conflict and forced migration ............................................................ 5 1.1.2 Economic opportunity and forced migration ................................................ 8 1.1.3 Social networks and forced migration ........................................................ 11 1.1.4 Physical factors and forced migration ......................................................... 16 1.1.5 Rebel participation and forced migration ................................................... 17 1.1.6 Other factors and forced migration ............................................................. 19 1.2 Theoretical framework ....................................................................................... 19 1.3 Research design, data and methodology ............................................................ 23 1.4 Summary of findings and contribution of the research ...................................... 28 1.5 Road map ............................................................................................................ 29 Chapter 2–The Plight of the Forgotten Ones, Civil War and Forced Migration ..... 31 2.1 Theoretical framework and research hypotheses ............................................... 34 2.2 Research design, data and measures .................................................................. 43 2.3 Empirical model and analysis ............................................................................ 54 2.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 61 Chapter 3– Conflict-Induced Displacement, Understanding the Causes of Flight ... 64 3.1 Theoretical framework and hypotheses .............................................................. 66 3.2 Research design, data and measures ................................................................. 76 3.3 Empirical results