Sabato Highlights✰✰✰ 1 ✰ The 1999 General ✰✰ ✰Assembly Elections Reversal of a Century: How the Republicans Finally Took Over the Virginia General Assembly

Overall ☑ Pre- election General Assembly: • House: 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 1 Independent • Senate: 19 Democrats, 21 Republicans ☑ Post-election General Assembly: • House: 47 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 Independent • Senate: 19 Democrats, 21 Republicans ☑ The groundwork for this historic Republican takeover was set even before 1999. Though the 1997 elections left Democrats with control of the House and a still evenly divided Senate, Governor Gilmore made two strategic ap- pointments that helped turn the tide. Republicans won special elections to replace the conservative Democrats Gilmore appointed, establishing a real majority in the Senate and an eff ective tie in the House (independent Lacey Putney sided with the GOP). ☑ In arguably the most important legislative election of the century, nearly half (48 percent) of the 140 seats in the General Assembly were left unopposed by one or the other major party. ☑ The Democrats’ weakness was apparent in their nomination of just 24 candi- dates for the 40- member Senate and 66 nominees for the 100- member House. Through 1981, Democrats never failed to put forth at least 38 Senate and 90 House candidates. ☑ By contrast, the Republicans posted their second- best (aft er 1995) candidate totals of the modern era: 33 Senate and 72 House nominees.

Women and African American Voters ☑ 43 women fi led to run for the General Assembly in 1999—a record number. But despite a modest increase in female representation, Virginia was still 41st of the 50 states in the percentage of representation for women in the state leg- islature. Compared to the southern and border states as a group, Virginia is

1 middle- ranked. African American representation was unchanged in 1999 in both houses, remaining at 10.7 percent of the General Assembly in a state with a black population of 19.6 percent. ☑ In the 1999 general election, voters ended 116 years of consecutive Democratic control in the House of Delegates, just as they had ended 114 years of Democratic Senate control in 1998. Not even during Reconstruction did the Republican Party ever have full control of both houses. ☑ Despite the GOP takeover, the re- election rate for delegates who sought an- other term hit a modern record of 97.9 percent. The Senate re-election rate was healthy but slightly lower, at 95 percent. The General Assembly had the smallest freshman class in recent history. ☑ Statewide, the Republicans captured nearly 55 percent of all votes cast for leg- islative candidates, their high watermark as of 1999. Democrats received just 40.7 percent of the votes, with Independents at 4.3 percent. ☑ Just 36 percent of the registered voters turned up at the polls for this historic election—far less than the 52 percent in 1995 and 49 percent in 1991, the two previous purely legislative election years.

Money Matters ☑ All legislative candidates on the general election ballot in 1999 spent a massive $27.8 million—an increase of 36 percent over the 1995 total of $20.5 million, and an all-time record for General Assembly elections in Virginia. ☑ The average House candidate in a two- party competitive district spent $167,000, and the average Senate candidate $242,000. ☑ The 1999 legislative contests were the fi rst where Democrats were outspent by the Republicans, about 52 percent to 46 percent of all dollars spent. (Independents accounted for the remaining 2 percent.)

2 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 ✰✰✰ 1 ✰ The 1999 General ✰✰ ✰Assembly Elections Reversal of a Century: How the Republicans Finally Took Over the Virginia General Assembly

ven years later, the 1999 election results in Virginia cause wide eyes and head- E scratching among researchers, pundits, and politicians alike. The Republicans fi nally did it! They secured control of both houses of the General Assembly! When the 20th century began, the Republican Party had only recently begun a disappearing act that would last seven full decades. The post- Civil War era of pros- perity for the GOP in the Old Dominion was over, as native white male Virginians regained their votes and rewrote the state Constitution to eliminate as many Republicans (read: blacks and white sympathizers) from the voting rolls as possible.1 Democratic dominance in Virginia and throughout the one- party South was now virtually complete, and the GOP was a mere whisper of a political entity. In 1933, for instance, the Republicans nominated a grand total of just 18 candidates for 140 seats in the legislature, and won only a handful of those races. The GOP nadir was reached in 1945, when eleven brave Republicans sallied forth to contest a hundred seats in the House of Delegates: exactly fi ve won.2 The tiny band of elected Republicans were consigned to obscure corners of the House and Senate chambers, generally ignored, and oft en not even placed on legislative committees that met. Their privileges pretty much extended solely to the use of the honorifi c titles of “Senator” and “Delegate.” It was 1965 before the GOP even nominated enough candidates to theoretically gain control of either chamber. Shortly aft er, Virginia’s party realignment began in earnest, with Republican Governor Linwood Holton’s 1969 victory providing coat- tails that yielded nearly one- quarter of the House of Delegates a gain of ten seats. By 1981, the GOP had a third of the House and nine Senate seats. Democratic Governor Doug Wilder was a godsend to the GOP; his unpopularity in the midterm elections of 1991 pushed Republicans to 41 House seats and 18 Senate seats (just three short of a majority in the upper house). Two Republican gubernatorial triumphs in 1993 and 1997 brought the party to the brink of control, and clever moves by Governor Jim Gilmore in 1997 and 1998

1. For further discussion, see Virginia Dabney, Virginia: The New Dominion (New York: Doubleday and Company, 1971), pp. 434–441; Allen W. Moger, Virginia: Bourbonism to Byrd, 1870– 1925 (Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 1968), pp. 200–202; and Larry J. Sabato, The Democratic Party Primary in Virginia: Tantamount to Election No Longer, (Charlottesville: University Press of Virginia, 1977), pp. 26, 37, 48–52, 90. 2. L.P. Collins, “A.P. Staples Win Easily: Light Vote Cast Throughout State”, Richmond Times- Dispatch, November 7, 1945. The Republicans won fi ve seats in the House of Delegates in 1945, three of the seats belonged to incumbents while the other two were gained by the party. The Republicans also held two seats in the Senate of Virginia.

3 TABLE 1.01 Use of Primary Elections by Party, Virginia General Assembly, 1955–1999 Election Year Democrats Republicans Total 1955* 42 0 42 1957 27 0 27 1959* 46 0 46 1961 30 0 30 1963* 36 0 36 1965 64 6 70 1967* 54 0 54 1969 36 6 42 1971* 45 0 45 1973 3 5 8 1975* 28 10 38 1977 27 13 40 1979* 25 12 37 1981 22 21 43 1982 3 6 9 1983* 6 5 11 1985 5 1 6 1987* 2 4 6 1989 3 3 6 1991* 8 3 11 1993 5 1 6 1995* 2 4 6 1997 5 3 8 1999* 4 7 11 SOURCE: Election reports in state newspapers for years prior to 1975; for 1975–1999, the State Board of Elections. NOTE: Parties also nominated candidates by conventions, uncontested primaries, mass meetings, and so-called “fi rehouse primaries,” where the party holding the contests sets up polling places within the district and actually conducts the election itself, without supervision from the state. Complete data could not be compiled for most election years on these nominating methods, but clearly, as the regular primary fades in importance, the other methods are becoming increasingly prominent. Election years marked with a star (*) are those in which both the Senate and the House of Delegates were elected. In other years, only the House of Delegates was elected.

of off ering jobs to a Democratic delegate and senator produced a 50-50 tie in the House and an outright 21- 19 GOP majority in the Senate for the fi rst time ever.3 The stage was set for a complete Republican takeover in 1999—and Governor Gilmore and his party delivered, just in time for the post-2000 census redistricting that could entrench Republicans for decades to come. Thus, the 20th century ended as the mir- ror image of its legislative beginning: a newly emergent majority party with a bright future for continuous control of the General Assembly.

Nominations for the General Assembly

As usual, the quiet nominating preliminaries in 1999 gave only the slightest hint of the tumultuous election to come, or its history- making potential. Virginia’s shift to a vigorous two-party democracy over the past 30 years meant that intra- party con- tests were increasingly rare, restricted to a relative handful of legislative districts (see Table 1.01). In 1965, there were 70 contested primaries around Virginia. In 1999, only 11 of the 140 General Assembly seats featured a contested primary election— actually at the upper end of the consistent six- to- eleven primary range exhibited since

3. Larry J. Sabato, Virginia Votes 1995–98 (Charlottesville: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, 1999). pp. 172–4.

4 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 TABLE 1.02 Primary Election Results, Virginia General Assembly, 1999 Area (District Number) Candidates Expenditures No. of Votes % of Votes SENATE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES Winchester (27) H.R. “Russ” Potts*+ $240,598 7,942 62.0 P.M. “Mike” McHugh $54,026 4,856 37.9 Totals $294,624 12,798 100.0

Prince William (29) Roberts S. Fitzsimmons*+ $14,352 2,782 51.6 G.E. Buck Waters $70,806 2,610 48.4 Totals $85,158 5,392 100.0 HOUSE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES Prince William (13) Denise M. Oppenhagan* $14,664 513 60.6 Billy Gray Tatum $0 333 39.4 Totals $14,664 846 100.0

Fairfax (34) Carole L. Herrick* $8,765 658 58.6 John W. Foust $31,325 464 41.4 Totals $40,090 1,122 100.0

Prince William (51) Virginia M. Stephens* $10,334 719 80.7 G. Gary Jacobson $4,752 172 19.3 Totals $15,086 891 100.0

Chesapeake (90) William P. “Billy” Robinson, Jr.* $88,685 897 60.4 Luther C. Edmonds $13,978 587 39.6 Totals $102,663 1,484 100.0 HOUSE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES Roanoke (14) Al Bedrosian* $14,664 3,817 76.4 Edward Lynch $18,083 1,180 23.6 Totals $32,747 4,997 100.0

Culpeper (30) George E. Broman, Jr.* $161,893 4,385 56.4 J. Michael Sharman $49,943 3,396 43.6 Totals $211,836 7,781 100.0

Loudoun (32) Richard H. “Dick” Black* $69,488 2,239 59.4 D.G. “Dave” McWatters $42,890 1,533 40.6 Totals $112,378 3,772 100.0

Richmond (68) Anne G. “Panny” Rhodes* $236,176 6,122 56.3 Ruble A. Hord III $440,846 4,751 43.7 Totals $677,022 10,873 100.0

Northern Neck (99) Henry Lane Hull* $25,624 2,861 52.7 Robert J. “Bob” Barlow $48,199 2,572 47.3 Totals $73,823 5,433 100.0

Grand Totals $1,660,091 55,389 100.0 SOURCE: Offi cial election results from the State Board of Elections. A star (*) denotes the winner, and a plus (+) denotes an incumbent.

1982. Remember that the eleven contests in 1999 represented both parties combined. Republicans sponsored seven primaries, the Democrats just four. The results of these primaries are recounted in Table 1.02. Four primaries involved incumbents, and all four won handily (Senator Russ Potts (R), Delegate William P. Robinson Jr. (D), Delegate Richard Black (R), and Delegate Anne “Panny” Rhodes (R)). The last contest drew the most statewide attention, since

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 5 Governor Jim Gilmore and many conservative Republicans tried energetically to purge the moderate- liberal Rhodes from the House of Delegates. Despite being out- spent $440,000 to $236,000 in the state’s most expensive primary race, Rhodes won over 56 percent of the votes. Many Democrats joined moderate Republicans in de- feating Gilmore’s choice, businessman Ruble Hord. In the seven primaries not featuring an incumbent, only one future legislative winner was nominated, George E. Broman Jr. of Culpeper, who won an open seat in November. All the other primary winners became November losers. The 22 primary candidates managed to spend over $1.6 million among them, though close to half was generated by the Rhodes- Hord match- up. Interestingly, only 6 of the 11 primary win- ners outspent the losers, suggesting again that in intra- party, low-turnout primaries, money is not the alpha and the omega of politics. Perhaps it will come as a surprise that in arguably the most important legisla- tive election of modern times, nearly half of the seats (48 percent) were left uncon- tested by one or the other major party. But many seats boast strong incumbents well protected by earlier redistricting, and neither party can aff ord to run well-fi nanced TABLE 1.03 campaigns everywhere—nor can they fi nd good candidates willing to step up to the Unopposed Legislative Races, Virginia plate in many localities. The proportion of unopposed seats was actually much higher General Assembly, 1983–1999 (fl uctuating between 59 percent to 64 percent) from 1983 to 1989, and in recent Year % Unopposed Legislative Races years only 1995 saw the unopposed percentage fall below 40 (see Table 1.03). The 1983 59 growing weakness of the grassroots Democratic Party was glaringly obvious when one 1985 60 examines the number of candidates nominated by the party in 1999 (see Table 1.04). 1987 64 The Democrats put forth their smallest contingent of standard- bearers in the entire 1989 60 1991 46 two- party era, just 24 nominees for the Senate and 66 for the House. From 1967 to 1993 44 1981, Democrats never failed to place on the ballot at least 38 Senate candidates 1995 37 and 90 House candidates. By contrast, the Republicans outdid the Democrats in 1997 49 both houses, with 33 Senate nominees and 72 House candidates—their second- best 1999 48 showing (aft er 1995) in the modern era.

TABLE 1.04 Candidates by Party, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1967–1999 Democrats Republicans Independents Year Senate House Total (%) Senate House Total (%) Senate House Total (%) 1967 38 98 136 (58.4) 21 57 78 (33.5) 6 13 19 (8.1) 1969 — 96 96 (60.0) — 55 55 (34.4) — 9 9 (5.6) 1971 39 96 135 (51.5) 26 72 98 (37.4) 7 22 29 (11.1) 1973 — 86 86 (46.7) — 60 60 (32.6) — 38 38 (20.7) 1975 40 95 135 (60.3) 20 48 68 (30.4) 9 12 21 (9.3) 1977 — 92 92 (57.5) — 53 53 (33.1) — 15 15 (9.4) 1979 39 91 130 (57.0) 26 63 89 (39.0) 3 6 9 (3.9) 1981 — 90 90 (54.2) — 58 58 (34.9) — 18 18 (10.8) 1982 — 85 85 (53.5) — 66 66 (41.5) — 8 8 (5.0) 1983 38 81 119 (56.4) 23 55 78 (37.0) 3 11 14 (6.6) 1985 — 79 79 (55.2) — 59 59 (41.3) — 5 5 (3.5) 1987 36 77 113 (55.4) 23 53 76 (37.2) 6 9 15 (7.4) 1989 — 78 78 (52.3) — 61 61 (40.9) — 10 10 (6.8) 1991 38 83 121 (51.7) 30 64 94 (40.2) 8 11 19 (8.1) 1993 — 78 78 (42.2) — 77 77 (41.6) — 30 30 (16.2) 1995 28 80 108 (43.5) 35 85 120 (48.4) 6 14 20 (8.1) 1997 — 70 70 (43.5) — 68 68 (42.2) — 23 23 (14.3) 1999 24 66 90 (39.6) 33 72 105 (46.3) 7 25 32 (14.1) SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial election results from the State Board of Elections NOTE: Senate elections are held every four years.

6 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 TABLE 1.05 Women Candidates, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1999 Democrats Republicans Independents Incumbents Non-Incumbents Incumbents Non-Incumbents Incumbents Non-Incumbents House 7 77503 Senate 721301 Total 14 98804 Grand Total 23 16 4

TABLE 1.06 Women Candidates, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1967–1999 Year Democrats Republicans Independents Total 1967 4 2 2 8 1969 4 1 1 6 1971 4 6 4 14 1973 11 4 3 18 1975 9 4 3 22 1977 11 7 4 16 1979 12 11 0 23 1981 12 3 0 15 1982 13 5 1 19 1983 18 7 2 27 1985 10 6 1 17 1987 14 6 2 22 1989 12 5 4 21 1991 25 7 8 40 1993 13 11 4 28 1995 25 10 3 38 1997 14 8 5 27 1999 23 16 4 43 SOURCE: Compiled from offi cial election results provided by the State Board of Elections. NOTE: There were no women candidates for state Senate in the years surveyed until 1975, when three women (one Republican, one Democrat, and one Independent) fi led to run. In 1979, three women fi led for the Senate, and all three were Republicans. A new high watermark wasreached in 1983, when six women (three Republicans, two Democrats, and one Independent) fi led for the Senate. The number of women Senate candidates increased again in 1987, to eight, and in 1991, eleven women ran for the Senate. In 1995, ten women (eight Democrats and one Republican and one Independent) ran for the Senate, and in 1999, fourteen women (nine Democrats, four Republicans, and one Independent) ran for the Senate. All other women counted in this table were candidates for the House of Delegates.

Forty- three women fi led to run for the Virginia General Assembly in 1999— the highest number ever (see Tables 1.05 and 1.06). With 23 candidates, Democrats provided the largest number of women, but the 16 Republicans represented a re- cord for the GOP. Four women also secured ballot positions as Independents. Fully 22 of the 43 women were incumbents, 14 of them Democrats and 8 of them Republicans.4 African Americans held their ground in nomination politics but had little

4. The female incumbents renominated were Democratic delegates Viola Baskerville, Mary Christian, Flora Crittenden, Karen Darner, Gladys Keating, Linda “Toddy” Puller, Marian Van Landingham, and Vivian Watts; Republican delegates Kathy Byron, Jo Ann Davis, Jeannemarie Devolites, Thelma Drake, Michèle McQuigg, Panny Rhodes, and Beverly Sherwood; Democratic senators Emily Couric, Janet Howell, Louise Lucas, Yvonne Miller, Patricia Ticer, and Mary Margaret Whipple; and Republican senator Jane Woods.

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 7 chance of advancement in 1999. All nine black Democratic delegates and fi ve sena- tors were renominated, and a former Democratic incumbent, ex-Delegate George Lovelace of the Fairfax 35th district, was slotted to oppose the Republican who had ended his one- year legislative career in 1997, Delegate Jeannemarie Devolites. The single Republican African American legislator, Delegate Paul Harris of Albemarle County, was unopposed for renomination as well.5

General Election

Legislative contests are mainly friends- and- neighbors, localized races. In the approxi- mately half of the General Assembly seats that featured two-party contests in 1999, Democratic and Republican candidates discussed the issues of taxes, education, trans- portation, and other topics from the perspective of their statewide parties. They spent state party money and used thematic polling and issue information provided by their party’s consultants. But for the most part, these party standard- bearers ran aggressive, individualized eff orts with their personal stamp. Parties can recruit candidates and provide them with the tools for victory, yet in the end, personal talents and local con- ditions (especially the party leanings of the constituencies) determine the results. At century’s end, Virginia’s legislative election delivered results unlike any of the others that preceded it in the 20th century. Republicans fi nally gained major- ity control of the House of Delegates, completing a thirty- year march to power. At the same time, the GOP maintained its narrow 21 to 19- seat control of the Senate of Virginia (augmented by Republican Lieutenant Governor John Hager as the tie- breaker). Not even during Reconstruction did the GOP obtain complete control of both houses of the General Assembly, and the Democrats had maintained superiority in the House for 116 consecutive years. (In the Senate, Democratic dominance had ended in 1998—aft er 114 years.) In 1999 Republicans gained three House seats, net, increasing seats held from 49 seats to 52 seats (see Table 1.07). They also enjoyed the support of the House’s lone Independent, Delegate Lacey E. Putney of Bedford, for a total of 53 votes in their caucus. Democrats were reduced to 47 seats. Remarkably, the GOP won the House sweepstakes even while the re- election rate for House incumbents hit its modern high, at an astounding 97.9 percent of delegates sought another term won (see Table 1.08). In Virginia, change is usually incremental, but as the Republicans proved, small ripples over three decades add up to a tidal wave. As Table 1.09 shows, a handful of key races determined the 1999 outcome. Most of the incumbents thought to be threatened held on to win, some by comfort- able margins, such as Republican Bob McDonnell of Virginia Beach and Democrat Don Williams of Norfolk. (A warning sign appeared for one Democratic incumbent, African American Delegate Billy Robinson of Norfolk. Despite his eighteen years of seniority in a black- majority district, he received only 50 percent of the vote against two opponents. This was the beginning of the end for Robinson, who would lose his seat to a black Republican woman in the 2001 election.) Similarly, a couple of key “open seats” without an incumbent running (such as

5. The black incumbents renominated were Republican delegate Paul Harris; Democratic del- egates Viola O. Baskerville, Mary T. Christian, Flora Davis Crittenden, Dwight C. Jones, Jerrauld C. Jones, A. Donald McEachin, Kenneth R. Melvin, William P. Robinson Jr., and Lionel Spruill, Sr.; and Democratic senators Benjamin J. Lambert III, L. Louise Lucas, Henry L. Marsh III, Henry Maxwell, and Yvonne B. Miller.

8 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 TABLE 1.07 Party Representation, Virginia General Assembly, 1967–1999 Democrats Republicans Independents Year Senate No. House No. Senate No. House No. House No. 1967 34 85 6 14 1 1969 33 75 7 24 1 1971 33 73 7 24 3 1973 34 65 6 20 15 1975 35 78 5 17 5 1977 34 76 6 21 3 1979 31 74 9 25 1 1981 31 66 9 33 1 1982 31 65 9 34 1 1983 32 65 8 34 1 1985 32 65 8 33 2 1987 30 64 10 35 1 1989 30 59 10 39 2 1991 22 58 18 41 1 1993 22 52 18 47 1 1995 20 52 20 47 1 1997 20 51 20 48 1 1999 19 47 21 52 1 SOURCE: Compiled from election results provided by the State Board of Elections. NOTE: Party classifi cation is made on the basis of status at the time of election. No independents have been elected to the Senate during the years surveyed. Special election results occurring between general elections, which sometimes changed the party balance, are not included in the table’s data. For example, Democrats had gained one House seat in a 1997 special election in Northern Virginia, and as such, the Democrats actually held 53 House seats going into the 1997 election.

Fairfax County’s 44th, where Kristen Amundsen succeeded Toddy Puller and the TABLE 1.08 Northern Neck’s 99th, where Albert Pollard succeeded retiring Tayloe Murphy) were Re-Election Rates, Virginia General held by the chosen successors of retiring Democrats. But two senior Democrats were Assembly Elections, 1979–1999 defeated for re-election: Delegate Gladys Keating of Fairfax County and Delegate Election House of State Glenn Croshaw of Virginia Beach. The respective Republican victors, Thomas Year Delegates Senate Bolvin and Terrie Suit, each won by about 52 percent to 48 percent. Republicans also 1979 96.6 91.9 took over two open seats. George Broman (R) of Culpeper captured the district of 1981 86.4 retiring Delegate Butch Davies (D), and Phil Larrabee (R) of Hampton won retiring 1982 88.0 1983 95.9 97.2 Democratic Delegate Vince Behm’s district, with 39 percent in a four- way contest. 1985 95.8 The Democrats captured one open seat from the Republicans: Benny Keister (D) 1987 93.6 89.5 replaced retiring Republican Delegate Tommy Baker in the Pulaski 7th. 1989 93.5 In the state Senate, the re- election rate of nearly 95 percent correctly suggests 1991 91.8 78.1 little change in 1999, but each party grabbed a seat formerly held by the other, de- 1993 96.7 1995 96.7 81.6 feating incumbents in the process. The president pro tempore of the Senate, Stanley 1997 97.8 C. Walker of Norfolk, lost his seat aft er 18 years in the upper chamber. Republican 1999 97.9 94.9 Nick Rerras defeated Walker by the stunning margin of nearly 60 percent to 40 percent, even while being signifi cantly outspent $488,000 to $270,000. The tables were turned in Fairfax County, when four-term state Senator Jane Woods (R) was ousted by former U.S. Congresswoman Leslie Byrne by just 37 votes out of over 30,000 cast. An anti-abortion Independent candidate, Virginia Dobey, targeted the moderate- liberal Woods and took 9 percent of the vote (2,726 votes). Dobey plausibly claimed credit for the defeat of the pro-choice Woods by the equally pro- choice and even more liberal Byrne; her point seemed to be that Republicans should nominate pro- life candidates or face a split at the polls, and thus likely defeat. Finally, Democrats held the Fairfax 36th district, with Democrat Delegate Toddy Puller re- placing longtime Democratic Senator Joseph Gartlan.

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 9 TABLE 1.09 Selected Election Results, General Election, Virginia House of Delegates, 1999 Area (District Number) Candidates Expenditures No. of Votes % of Votes STATE SENATE Norfolk (6) D. Nick Rerras (R)* $487,957 11,621 59.2 Stanley C. Walker (D)+ $270,317 7,966 40.6 Write-Ins 35 0.2 Totals $758,274 19,622 100.0

Fairfax (34) Leslie L. Byrne (D)+ $338,140 13,719 45.5 Jane H. Woods (R)* $604,698 13,682 45.4 Virginia T. Dobey (I) $62,698 2,726 9.0 Write-Ins 13 0.1 Totals $1,005,536 30,140 100.0

Fairfax (36) Linda T. “Toddy” Puller (D)* $292,219 17,363 52.4 Daniel F. Rinzel (R) $233,149 15,757 47.6 Write-Ins 16 0.0 Totals $525,368 33,136 100.0

HOUSE OF DELEGATES Pulaksi (7) W. Benny Keister (D)* $292,188 7,873 53.2 Barabara M. Chrisley (R) $334,993 5,274 35.6 Joseph H. McClung (I) $1,662 551 3.7 William R. Meyer (I) $200 1,090 7.4 Write-Ins 6 0.0 Totals $629,043 14,794 100.0

Culpeper (30) George E. Broman, Jr. (R)* $270,635 9,172 50.6 Doris G. Lackey (D) $90,088 6,897 38.1 J.D. “Dori” Callahan (I) $21,721 2,048 11.3 Write-Ins 1 0.0 Totals $382,444 18,118 100.0

Fairfax (43) Thomas M. Bolvin (R)* $169,044 7,230 52.2 Gladys B. Keating (D)+ $190,619 6,612 47.7 Write-Ins 9 0.1 Totals $359,663 13,851 100.0

Fairfax (44) Kristen J. Amundsen (D)* $280,675 7,065 51.2 Scott T. Klein (R) $280,522 6,726 48.7 Write-Ins 7 0.1 Totals $561,197 13,798 100.0

Fairfax (67) Roger J. McClure (R)*+ $116,559 7,413 51.3 James E. Mitchell, III (D) $187,213 7,004 48.5 Write-Ins 26 0.2 Totals $303,772 14,443 100.0

Virginia Beach (81) Terrie L. Suit (R)* $304,223 5,295 51.7 Glenn R. Croshaw (D)+ $416,152 4,922 48.1 Write-Ins 15 0.1 Totals $720,375 10,232 100.0

Virginia Beach (84) Robert F. McDonnell (R)*+ $464,505 6,347 55.3 Frank Drew (D) $512,535 5,122 44.6 Write-Ins 14 0.1 Totals $977,040 11,483 100.0

10 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 TABLE 1.09 Selected Election Results, General Election, Virginia House of Delegates, 1999 (continued) Area (District Number) Candidates Expenditures No. of Votes % of Votes Norfolk (86) Donald A. Williams (D)*+ $395,875 2,672 55.1 Beverly B. Graeber (R) $278,196 2,171 44.8 Write-Ins 6 0.1 Totals $674,071 4,849 100.0

Chesapeake (90) William P. “Billy” Robinson, Jr. (D)*+ $147,869 4,735 50.0 Michael L. Ball (R) $34,157 4,025 42.5 Darrin W. MacKinnon (I) $3,795 699 7.4 Write-Ins 18 0.2 Totals $185,821 9,477 100.0

Hampton (91) Phil Larrabee, Jr. (R)* $331,527 4,892 39.4 James R. Joseph (D) $360,516 3,599 29.0 Ross A. Kearney (I) $30,106 3,371 27.2 Rudy T. Langford (I) $3,441 531 4.3 Write-Ins 18 0.1 Totals $725,590 12,411 100.0

Northern Neck (99) Albert C. Pollard, Jr. (D)* $488,884 10,174 53.0 Henry L. Hull (R) $350,125 8,975 46.8 Write-Ins 34 0.2 Totals $839,009 19,183 100.0 SOURCE: Offi cial election results from the State Board of Elections. A star (*) indicates the winner, and a plus (+) denotes an incumbent.

TABLE 1.10 Vote by Parties, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1999 Senate House Both Number of Votes % of Votes Number of Votes % of Votes Number of Votes % of Votes STATEWIDE Democratic 441,873 37.7 526,294 43.7 968,167 40.7 Republican 694,231 59.2 611,456 50.7 1,305,687 54.9 Independents 29,312 2.5 60,812 5.0 90,124 3.8 Write-Ins 6,302 0.5 6,468 0.5 12,770 0.5 Totals 1,171,718 100.0 1,205,030 100.0 2,376,748 100.0

PARTY-CONTESTED Democratic 323,463 53.8 283,381 50.2 606,844 52.1 Republican 272,986 45.4 270,762 48.0 543,748 46.7 Independents 3,866 0.6 9,925 1.8 13,791 1.2 Write-Ins 371 0.1 439 0.1 810 0.1 Totals 600,686 100.0 564,507 100.0 1,165,193 100.0 SOURCE: Compiled from election results provided by the State Board of Elections. NOTE: “Party-contested” elections are those which had formallly designated Democratic and Republican nominees.

Not surprisingly, the Republicans achieved nearly a 55 percent majority of all the votes cast statewide for legislative candidates in 1999—their largest percentage ever. Democrats were held to 40.7 percent, with Independents and write- ins accu- mulating the remaining 4.3 percent (see Tables 1.10 and 1.11). The eff ects of pro- Democratic redistricting are still seen when we examine only those districts contested by both Democrats and Republicans. In those 53 districts (37 House and 16 Senate),

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 11 TABLE 1.11 Vote by Parties, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1969–1999 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 STATEWIDE Democratic 60.0 58.6 55.9 66.9 66.6 62.0 59.6 56.9 61.5 58.3 59.9 52.6 54.3 44.6 44.3 44.9 40.7 Republican 37.1 34.6 31.7 28.1 29.7 36.5 36.5 40.8 36.1 39.5 35.8 44.8 42.1 51.2 53.0 50.7 54.9 Independents 2.8 6.8 12.4 4.9 3.7 1.5 3.9 2.2 2.4 2.1 4.2 2.4 3.4 4.2 2.5 3.9 3.8 Write-Ins 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 PARTY CONTESTS Democratic 56.9 55.3 54.6 57.3 61.8 56.3 51.9 52.6 54.4 54.0 52.8 50.3 47.6 48.5 51.4 49.0 46.7 Republican 39.9 37.1 32.6 40.0 36.2 43.4 46.6 46.8 45.0 45.9 46.3 49.3 49.6 50.0 48.1 49.7 52.1 Independents 3.2 7.6 12.8 2.7 2.0 0.3 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.3 2.7 1.8 0.4 1.2 1.2 Write-Ins 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.0

TABLE 1.12 Membership Turnover, Virginia General Assembly, 1965–1999 SENATE HOUSE ENTIRE ASSEMBLY Year Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total Urban Rural Total 1965 1 9 10 14 21 35 15 30 45 1967 5 4 9 5 6 11 20 10 30 1969 — — — 17 9 26 17 9 26 1971 9 8 17 20 18 68 29 26 55 1973 — — — 16 7 23 16 7 23 1975 5 5 10 12 3 15 17 8 25 1977 — — — 14 4 18 14 4 18 1979 3 3 6 11 4 15 14 7 21 1981 — — — 15 8 23 15 8 23 1982 — — — 12 7 19 12 7 19 1983 3 2 5 6 0 6 9 2 11 1985 — — — 5 3 8 5 3 8 1987 5 1 6 6 6 12 11 7 18 1989 — — — 8 6 14 8 6 14 1991 10 5 15 16 5 21 26 10 36 1993 — — — 6 7 13 6 7 13 1995 7 2 9 5 3 8 12 5 17 1997 — — — 7 2 9 7 2 9 1999 3 0 3 4 4 8 7 4 11

Democrats retained a narrow majority of the votes, 52.1 percent to 46.7 percent. Of course, redistricting in 2001—this time controlled by the Republicans—would change all that. As noted earlier, the turnover rate was tiny in 1999. There were just three new senators elected—the smallest class of freshmen in modern times—and only eight new House members, also one of the smallest freshman classes in four decades (see Table 1.12). To witness a historic election with a mere 11 new members out of 140 is truly noteworthy. As usual, most of the turnover came in urban areas; in the case of 1999, seven of the 11 new members hailed from Northern Virginia or Hampton Roads (see Table 1.13). Judging by turnout, voters did not appear to recognize the signifi cant nature of the election (see Table 1.14). Barely more than a third of the registered voters

12 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 TABLE 1.13 Membership Turnover by Regional Areas, Virginia General Assembly, 1965–1999 Regional Area 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1982 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Northern Virginia 4 3 11 9 4777823232102424 Piedmont 1 2 1 3 2030221011 30211 Northern Neck & Eastern Shore 3 1 0 0 2021110000 10011 Richmond 4 5 3 5 3530342023 41110 Hampton Roads 7 10 3 10 4415223351 72323 Tidewater (minus Hampton Roads) 2 0 2 1 2021000000 10010 Southside 6 4 3 10 1203320232 42210 Southwest 10 2 3 7 1201240034 14201 Western 1205210211100131000 Shenandoah Valley 7 1 0 4 1 4 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 1 3 0 1

TABLE 1.14 Voter Turnout, Virginia Statewide Elections, 1980–1999 Total Registered Total Votes Votes Cast as % of Year Election Population Cast Registered Voters 1980 President and U.S. House 2,302,405 1,866,032 81.4 1981 Governor and House of Delegates 2,215,081 1,437,382 64.9 1982 U.S. Senate and U.S. House 2,232,985 1,415,622 63.4 1983 General Assembly 2,330,595 1,178,707 50.6 1984 President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House 2,675,641 2,180,515 81.5 1985 Governor and House of Delegates 2,597,904 1,377,966 53.0 1986 U.S. House 2,609,698 1,115,179 42.7 1987 General Assembly and Lottery Ref. 2,657,412 1,157,110 59.1 1988 President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House 2,877,144 2,231,876 77.6 1989 Governor and House of Delegates 2,737,340 1,821,242 66.5 1990 U.S. Senate and U.S. House 2,735,339 1,252,971 45.8 1991 General Assembly 2,791,747 1,371,940 49.1 1992 President and U.S. House 3,066,486 2,582,966 84.5 1993 Governor and House of Delegates 2,975,777 1,817,777 61.1 1994 U.S. Senate and U.S. House 3,000,560 2,078,106 69.3 1995 General Assembly 3,038,394 1,585,783 52.2 1996 President, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House 3,322,740 2,468,229 74.3 1997 Governor and House of Delegates 3,565,697 1,764,476 49.5 1998 U.S. House 3,724,683 1,229,139 33.0 1999 General Assembly 3,808,754 1,373,527 36.1

(36 percent) cast a ballot in 1999. These 1,373,527 hardy souls (except for absen- tee voters) braved statewide rain on Election Day, which may have accounted for a signifi cant decline in turnout compared to the 1995 General Assembly elections— when 1,585,783 people voted (over 52 percent of the registered). The 1999 turnout was almost exactly equal to the 1,371,940 turnout in the 1991 legislative elections, but here again, a relatively healthy 49 percent of the registered voters cast a ballot. Despite signifi cant population growth since 1991, no real diff erence in voter partici- pation was observed. The Virginia Votes series has long kept track of another vital measure of modern politics: the election of women and minorities to the General Assembly. In 1999, eight women (all Democrats) won seats in the Senate, and an additional 15 women (seven Democrats and eight Republicans) won House seats. This represents an

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 13 increase of one seat in the Senate and one in the House.6 Aft er the 1999 election, Virginia ranked 41st of the 50 states in the percentage of female representation (see TABLE 1.15 Table 1.15). The national average of state legislative seats held by women is 22.5 per- Virginia Compared to Southern cent; Virginia’s proportion is 15.7 percent. Looking at the southern and border states and Border States, Women in State as a group, Virginia is about middle- ranked, with a higher female legislative propor- Legislatures, 1999 tion than seven states and a lower one than eight states. % of Women National For African Americans, the situation was static in 1999. Totals remained at nine State in Legislature Rank African American delegates and fi ve African American senators. Though African National Average 22.5 — Americans were 19.6 percent of the state’s population according to the 2000 census, Virginia 15.7 41 they represented a mere 6.4 percent in the House of Delegates and 12.5 percent in the Alabama 7.9 50 Arkansas 14.8 42 Senate in 1999. Overall, Virginia ranked 16th nationally in terms of black representa- Florida 23.8 23 tion in state legislatures (see Table 1.16). Georgia 18.6 32 Kentucky 11.6 47 Louisiana 13.9 43 Campaign Money in 1999 Maryland 29.3 10 Mississippi 12.1 46 Missouri 21.8 26 One can easily run out of adjectives to describe the mountain of money raised and North Carolina 18.2 34 spent by the political parties and legislative candidates in 1999, “Massive, unprec- Oklahoma 10.1 49 edented, and bipartisanly gluttonous,” will do as modifi ers here. South Carolina 11.2 48 In 1999, all candidates on the ballot in all 140 General Assembly districts spent Tennessee 16.7 39 $27.8 million, a 36 percent increase over the $20.5 million spent in the last full set of Texas 17.7 38 West Virginia 17.9 36 legislative contests in 1995. This all-time record for a General Assembly election was SOURCE: Center for American Women and Politics, Eagleton refl ected in every division of expenditure, as Tables 1.17 and 1.18 make clear. Almost Institute of Politics, Rutgers University. $11.5 million was spent by Senate candidates, a 35 percent gain over the $8.5 million in 1995. When only the 17 party- contested Senate districts are considered, the 1999 candidates spent $8.3 million; the comparable fi gure from 1995 was $7.3 million. In the House races, candidates in 1999 spent $16.4 million, compared to $11.9 TABLE 1.16 million in 1995 and $8.4 million in 1997. In other words, in just two years, from Virginia Compared to Southern and Border States, African Americans in State Legislatures, 1999 6. Winning women in the Senate and House were: Name Post Party District Incumbency % of African Yvonne B. Miller Senate D 5 – Norfolk Yes Americans in National Louis Lucas Senate D 18 – Portsmouth Yes State Legislature Rank Emily Couric Senate D 25 – Charlottesville Yes National Average 8.8 — Patricia S. Ticer Senate D 30 – Alexandria Yes Virginia 10.7 16 Mary Margaret Whipple Senate D 31 – Arlington Yes Alabama 25.0 2 Janet D. Howell Senate D 32 – Reston Yes Arkansas 11.1 15 Leslie L. Byrne Senate D 34 – Falls Church No Florida 12.5 11 Linda T. Puller Senate D 36 – Mt. Vernon No Georgia 18.2 6 Kathy J. Byron House R 22 – Lynchburg Yes Kentucky 2.9 33 Beverly J. Sherwood House R 29 – Winchester Yes Louisiana 21.7 3 Jeannemarie Devolites House R 35 – Oakton Yes Maryland 20.2 4 Vivian E. Watts House D 39 – Annandale Yes Mississippi 25.9 1 Kristen J. Amundsen House D 44 – Mt. Vernon No Missouri 9.6 17 Marian Van Landingham House D 45 – Alexandria Yes North Carolina 14.1 7 L. Karen Darner House D 49 – Arlington Yes Oklahoma 3.4 29 Michèle B. McQuigg House R 51 – Woodbridge Yes South Carolina 19.4 5 Anne G. Rhodes House R 68 – Richmond Yes Tennessee 12.1 14 Viola O. Baskerville House D 71 – Richmond Yes Texas 8.8 18 Terrie L. Suit House R 81 – Virginia Beach No West Virginia 3.0 32 Thelma D. Drake House R 87 – Norfolk Yes SOURCE: David A. Bostis, Black Elected Offi cials: A Statistical Mary T. Christian House D 92 – Hampton Yes Study 2000, published by the Joint Center for Political and Flora D. Crittenden House D 95 – Newport News Yes Economic Studies, available at www.jointcenter.org. Jo Ann S. Davis House R 96 – Yorktown Yes

14 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 TABLE 1.17 Campaign Spending, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1999 Total Expenditures % of Expenditures STATE SENATE Party-Contest Districts (n = 17) Democrats $4,032,710 48.7 Republicans $4,191,240 50.6 Independents/Others $62,850 0.8 Total $8,286,800 100.0

All Districts (n = 100) Democrats $4,564,622 39.9 Republicans $6,479,418 56.6 Independents/Others $402,265 3.5 Total $11,446,305 100.0

HOUSE OF DELEGATES Party-Contest Districts (n = 39) Democrats $7,075,160 54.0 Republicans $5,952,415 45.5 Independents/Others $65,848 0.5 Total $13,093,423 100.0

All Districts (n = 100) Democrats $8,315,936 50.9 Republicans $7,894,020 48.3 Independents/Others $140,085 0.8 Total $16,350,041 100.0

ENTIRE GENERAL ASSEMBLY Party-Contest Districts (n = 56) Democrats $11,107,870 52.0 Republicans $10,143,655 47.4 Independents/Others $128,698 0.6 Total $21,380,223 100.0

All Districts (n = 100) Democrats $12,880,558 46.3 Republicans $14,373,438 51.7 Independents/Others $542,350 2.0 Total $27,796,346 100.0 SOURCE: Compiled from election results provided by the State Board of Elections. NOTE: Party-contested distrcits are those in which the elections had formally designated Democratic and Republican nominees. “Total Campaign Expenditures” does not include money spent by defeated primary or convention candidates.

1997 to 1999, House race expenditures almost doubled. Isolating the 39 House dis- tricts where Democratic and Republican candidates were both on the ballot, we can see where the lion’s share of the money was spent ($13.1 million), compared to $11 million in 1995 and $6.3 million in 1997. Thus, the average major- party House can- didate in 1999 spent about $167,000. In the Senate, the fi gure was about $242,000. Of course, there is no “average” candidate. Campaign expenditures are diver- gent, low in uncontested or lightly contested races, while remarkably high in contested races. These races see expenditures of up to half a million or more apiece.7 Overall,

7. The Woods / Byrne Senate race in Fairfax topped the charts in the 1999 general election, with over $1 million spent among the candidates. Jane Woods (R) spent more than any candidate for senate:

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 15 TABLE 1.18 Percent of Total Expenditures, Virginia General Assembly Elections, 1983–1999 House of Delegates State Senate Entire General Assembly (Party-Contested Districts) (Party-Contested Districts) (All Districts)

Year Dem % Rep % Dem % Rep % Dem % Rep % 1983 54.9 45.1 54.4 43.2 58.0 39.9 1985* 54.8 45.2 — — 58.4 39.6 1987 57.8 41.9 57.4 41.9 56.6 39.7 1989* 58.2 41.2 — — 59.1 38.4 1991 54.3 45.3 56.0 37.6 57.3 39.0 1993* 62.1 36.4 — — 61.7 36.7 1995 58.3 41.6 52.2 47.6 53.1 46.5 1997* 62.2 37.6 — — 60.7 38.7 1999 54.0 45.5 48.7 50.6 46.3 51.7 NOTE: Only the House of Delegates (and not the State Senate) were elected in the starred (*) years.

the parties were fairly evenly matched for money. In all 140 districts, Republicans outspent Democrats by a small margin, 51.7 percent to 46.3 percent, with 2 per- cent of the money spent by Independents. Focusing just on the party- contested dis- tricts, the Democrats improved that margin. In those Senate districts, Republicans spent more by just 50.6 percent to 48.7 percent, and in the party- contested House districts, Democrats actually outspent the Republicans, 54 percent to 45.5 per- cent. So money, collectively at least, was not the primary explanation for the loss of Democratic control of the House. At the same time, as Table 1.17 demonstrates, the 1999 elections were the fi rst legislative contests where Democrats were outspent overall, and the Democratic proportion of all dollars spent in both the House and Senate party- contested districts was the smallest ever. Contribution totals tend to refl ect the state of party competition. As Democratic control waned, GOP contribu- tions increased. With majority control in both houses, Republicans will now reap the benefi ts long reserved for the Democratic rulers of the legislative chambers.

Conclusion

For 10 long years, two mighty partisan armies fought pitched battles for control of the Virginia General Assembly. Democrats had been accustomed to absolute control of the legislative machinery and that control had never been seriously challenged in the lifetime of any sitting legislator. Even as late as 1990, Democrats assumed their redistricting power could maintain solid majorities for decades to come. But redis- tricting could only delay the inevitable. Yes, Democrats had more incumbents and more money, yet the underlying demographic and political tides in the state were trending Republican. Aft er 114 years of legislative power, Democrats had run out of steam, and the 1997-1999 years will be remembered for the not-always- smooth

$605,000. The most expensive House race was the McDonnell / Drew contest in Virginia Beach, with $977,000 spent overall. Interestingly, the most money spent by a House candidate occurred not there but in the Roanoke area, where House Democratic Leader C. Richard Cranwell expended $618,000. He won handily in 1999, but in previous races he had had close calls. Cranwell and other political lead- ers in both parties raised over $12.9 million for their legislative nominees, distributed to the candidates through “leadership political action committees (PACs).” This money is refl ected in the overall totals listed in the campaign fi nance tables.

16 Virginia Votes ✰ 1999–2002 transition to Republican rule of the General Assembly’s roost. (Full control would not come until aft er the 2001 election, when Republican gains meant the end of legislative “power-sharing”—co- chairmanships and the like). By no means was the Republican legislative takeover unforeseen. Within the pages of Virginia Votes, the analysis of the 1979 General Assembly results, this observer wrote that the seeds had already been sown for GOP majorities in both houses by the end of the 20th century, with the Senate preceding the House of Delegates.8 Politics is fairly predictable in the short run, but rather unpredictable in the longer term. Who can foretell economic conditions, demographic patterns, or abuses of power many years hence? At the dawn of the GOP era in the Virginia General Assembly, Republican majorities appear secure and likely to grow for some consid- erable time to come. Democrats need years to regroup and recruit a new genera- tion of leadership. However, the next Democratic governor(s) can hasten that party transformation. Also, while Republicans are enjoying the fruits of their hard- won victories, Democrats can learn valuable lessons in strategy and tactics from “the little GOP engine that could”—lessons in how to use legislative minorities and party re- sources to accomplish the politically “impossible” a decade or two from now. And the Republicans can equally benefi t from studying Democratic history. How did the Democrats skillfully use their majorities to make them self- sustaining? What factors brought about the long Democratic legislative decline—and what can be done to keep that from happening to the GOP? Historians and political scientists revel in asking these questions for their own sake. Politicians can change the future—their own future—by asking and answering them well. ★

8. See: Larry J. Sabato, Virginia Votes 1979–1982 (Charlottesville: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, 1983), pp. 20–28. The author received some very direct rebukes in 1979 and 1980 from Democratic legislative leaders for even suggesting such a “preposterous scenario,” as one of them put it during a harangue.

CHAPTER 1 ✰ The 1999 General Assembly Elections 17