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Creating Markets in the Kyrgyz Republic

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Creating Markets in the Kyrgyz Republic COUNTRY PRIVATE SECTOR DIAGNOSTIC CREATING MARKETS IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC Unleashing the private sector to rebuild development success May 2021 About IFC IFC—a sister organization of the World Bank and member of the World Bank Group—is the largest global development institution focused on the private sector in emerging markets. We work with more than 2,000 businesses worldwide, using our capital, expertise, and influence to create markets and opportunities where they are needed most. In fiscal year 2019, we delivered more than $19 billion in long-term financing for developing countries, leveraging the power of the private sector to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity. For more information, visit www.ifc.org © International Finance Corporation 2020. All rights reserved. 2121 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 www.ifc.org The material in this work is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. IFC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work, or for the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liability for any omissions or errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon. The findings, interpretations, views, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Finance Corporation or of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank) or the governments they represent. Cover photos: Syinat Arynova, Nurzhamal Abeshova, KICB. Energy photo credit: Beksultan Aitkulov CONTENTS FIGURES 2 TABLES 2 BOXES 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 4 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 PART I: OVERVIEW 20 1. COUNTRY CONTEXT: THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC AT A TURNING POINT 20 The Kyrgyz Republic Needs to Regain Its Foothold As an Early Reformer 20 in the Region and Build a More Dynamic and Resilient Economy COVID-19 Adds Urgency to Tackling Macro, Fiscal, and Structural Challenges 22 Strategy for Expanding the Private Sector’s Contribution to Recovery and 24 Growth and Structure of the CPSD Report 2. STATE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR 26 Relatively Large Private Sector Concentrated in Services but Lagging 26 in Competitiveness A Private Sector Dominated by Microenterprises and Struggling with 26 a “Missing Middle” The Kyrgyz Republic Struggles with Attracting and Retaining FDI 29 Exports Outside of Commodities are Underdeveloped and Decreasing 29 Due to the Low Competitiveness of Kyrgyz Firms 3. CROSS-CUTTING CHALLENGES 31 The Regulatory Environment Limits the Growth of Businesses and 31 and Encourages Informality Weak Investor Protections Deter Investors and Constrain Resource Mobilization 32 Policy Actions on Cross-Cutting Constraints for Private Sector–Led Growth 34 PART II: SECTORAL ANALYSIS 36 4. ENSURING SUSTAINABLE AND RELIABLE ENERGY ACCESS 38 5. PROMOTING EXPORT-ORIENTED SECTORS THROUGH 43 GREATER CONNECTIVITY 6. ENABLING A DIGITAL ECONOMY 45 7. FINANCIAL INCLUSION: MSMES AND DIGITAL FINANCE 53 8. TOURISM DEVELOPMENT 72 A. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR KYRGYZ 76 ECONOMIC SECTORS B. PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP PROJECTS 79 C. STRUCTURE OF THE KYRGYZ FINANCIAL SECTOR, END OF 2019 81 D. TOURISM DEVELOPMENT: SHORT-TERM WINS AND LONG-TERM PLANS 82 REFERENCES 107 ENDNOTES 111 1 Figures Figure 1.1 The Kyrgyz Republic’s Growth Performance 2000–19 (%) 21 Figure 1.2 Real GDP Index, The Kyrgyz Republic and Selected Countries 22 Figure 2.1 The Kyrgyz Republic’s Enterprise Sector Disaggregated by Firms 27 and Employees, 2018 Figure 2.2 Value-Added Share of GDP of Firms by Size in The Kyrgyz 27 and Comparable Economies Figure 2.3 Employment by Size of Firm in The Kyrgyz and Comparable Economies 27 Figure 2.4 FDI, Net Inflows (% of GDP), Kyrgyz Republic and Neighbors 28 Figure 3.1 Top Business Environment Obstacles for Firms 31 Figure 3.2 Business Entry Density Rate 31 Figure 3.3 Causes of Investor Complaints (% of Investors) 33 Figure 3.4 International Investor-State Disputes Initiated by Investor, 33 1996–2018 (Number of Cases) Figure 6.1 Retail Subscribers Market Share by Provider as of March 2020 45 Figure 6.2 Length of Fiber-Optic Cable Lines as of September 30th 2019 46 Figure 6.3 Total Subscribers Market Share by Network as of March 2020 46 Figure 7.1 Net Interest Margin, Kyrgyz Republic and Peer Countries, 2017 60 Figure 7.2 Private Credit to GDP and Domestic Bank Deposits to GDP, 63 Central Asia, 2017 Figure D.1 Visitor Arrivals to the Kyrgyz Republic, 2008–17 91 Figure D.2 Tourism FDI by Region of Investor, 2013–18 (US$, 2010s) 93 Tables Table E.1 High-Priority Policy Reform Recommendations 18 Table 3.1 High-Priority Cross-Cutting Policy Reform Recommendations 35 Table 4.1 Number of Enterprises with State Capital by Sector 39 Table 4.2 The Kyrgyz Republic Energy Sector Development Priority Reforms 42 Table 5.1 The Kyrgyz Republic Priority Reforms to Encourage Investment 44 in Connectivity Infrastructure Table 6.1 Sum of Cumulative Capital Investments Announced and 48 Opened Between 2015 and 2020 for the Communications, Software, and Ict Subsectors (Per Country) Table 6.2 The Kyrgyz Republic Priority Reforms to Encourage Investment 52 in Digital Infrastructure Table 7.1 Banking Sector Indicators (2018–20) 54 Table 7.2 Physical Access to Financial Services 56 2 Table 7.3 Theory of Change: Kyrgyz Republic Financial Sector Deep Dive 68 Table D.1 Passengers to and From Manas Airport by Country and Year, 2014–18 86 Table D.2 Theory of Change: Kyrgyz Republic Tourism Sector Deep Dive 103 Boxes Box 1.1 Role of Remittances in the Kyrgyz Republic 23 Box 2.1 Commodities Dominate Kyrgyz Exports with Little Contribution 29 to Jobs and Development Box 6.1 KyrgyzTelecom 46 Box 6.2 How Sberbank and Tinkoff Bank Created New Revenue Streams 49 and Saved Costs Through Mobile Technology 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Kyrgyz Republic Country Private Sector Diagnostic (CPSD) was prepared by a team led by Tarik Sahovic and Sudha Bala Krishnan and included contributions from Iryna Bilotserkivska and Sara Al Rowais. The report was prepared under the guidance of World Bank Group (WBG) management, which included Lilia Burunciuc, Wiebke Schloemer, Mona Haddad, Rolf Behrndt, Damien Shiels, Ilias Skamnelos, Marialisa Motta, Cassandra Colbert, Stefka Slavova, and Tatiana Nenova. The team is grateful for the industry-specific inputs into sector assessments from Marc Schrijver, Daniel Coutinho, and A.K.M. Abdullah (financial sector); John Perrottet and Jessie McComb (tourism); Goran Vranic (ICT); and Zemfira Khusnutdinova, Carlo Maria Rossotto, Madalina Pruna, and Michael Kende (telecoms and digital infrastructure). In addition, the team is grateful for the assistance, suggestions, and comments provided throughout the preparation of various report sections by Aimilios Chatzinikolaou, Katharina Gassner, Davit Babasyan, Luiza Mamarasulova, Fatima Eshimbekova, Olga Tomilova, Andres Federico Martinez, Eddy Rodriguez, Murat Sultanov, Appolenia Mbowe, Syinat Arynova, Kuban Ashyrkulov, Ion Amarfii, Emil Abdykalykov, and Jose Miguel Villascusa Cerezo. Our thanks also go to the peer reviewers who provided valuable input: Rolf Behrndt, Muhammad Zulfiqar Ahmed, and Jennifer L. Keller. The team is grateful for valuable comments received from Dzenan Malovic, Baker K. Kiggundu, Bernard Micallef, Tengiz Gogotishvili, Galina Klimenko, Manizha Mamadnabieva, Marie-Paule Claes, Helio Bertachini, Talant Sultanov, Aknur Jumatova, and Andrey Artyukhin. Tessa Ulloa provided administrative support. Nurzhamal Abeshova and Erkinay Tagaeva provided in-country support to the team. The team would also like to thank Daniel Mcnaughton for editing. Finally, the team is also grateful to numerous WBG colleagues, government counterparts, private sector representatives, and civil society leaders who generously shared their time and insights. 4 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AML anti-money-laundering AS advisory services ASA advisory services and analytics ATM automated teller machine BCS bulk clearing system BRI Belt and Road Initiative B2B business-to-business B2C business-to-client CAA Civil Aviation Agency CAGR compound annual growth rate CARS3 Third Phase of the Central Asia Regional Links Program CASA Central Asia-South Asia CBT community-based tourism CDD customer due diligence CEM country economic memorandum CERT Computer Security Incident Response Team CFT Countering the Financing of Terrorism CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CMAW Creating Markets Advisory Window COVID-19 coronavirus CPF country partnership framework CPSD country private sector diagnostic CRM customer relationship management CSD central securities depository DFS digital financial services DIGI CASA Digital Central Asia-South Asia DMC destination management company DMO debt management office 5 DPA deposit protection agency DPF deposit protection fund DPO development policy operation EAEU Eurasian Economic Union EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ECE early childhood education e-ID electronic identification e-KYC electronic know-your-customer EU European Union FDI foreign direct investment FI financial institution FPS fast payment system FSU former Soviet Union GDP gross domestic product GDS global distribution systems GEI Global Entrepreneurship Index GIS Geographic Information System GMRA Global Master Repurchase Agreement
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