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Understanding the Current International Order BUILDING A SUSTAINABLE INTERNATIONAL ORDER A RAND Project to Explore U.S. Strategy in a Changing World UNDERSTANDING CurrentTHE International Order Michael J. Mazarr Miranda Priebe Andrew Radin C O R P O R A T I O N Astrid Stuth Cevallos For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1598 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9570-1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Dori Walker. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Since 1945, the United States has pursued its global interests through creating and maintaining international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms; these ordering mechanisms are often collectively referred to as the interna- tional order. In recent years, rising powers have begun to challenge aspects of this order. This report is part of a project, titled “Building a Sustainable International Order,” that aims to understand the existing international order, assess current challenges to the order, and recom- mend future U.S. policies with respect to the order. The study will produce multiple reports and essays. Three are cen- tral to the study’s assessment of the international order: One report defines and scopes the order; one examines its status, attempting to create measurable indexes of the order’s health; and one examines the perspectives of major countries toward the order. This report is the first of those and reflects the project team’s attempt to understand the existing international order, including how U.S. decisionmakers have described and used the order in conducting foreign policy, as well as how academics have assessed the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment and conducted within the Inter- national Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and develop- ment center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the iii iv Understanding the Current International Order Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Table ................................................................vii Summary .......................................................................... ix Acknowledgments ..............................................................xiii Abbreviations .....................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE The Role of International Order in U.S. Strategy .......................... 1 Risks to the Current Order ....................................................... 2 Roadmap and Methodology ...................................................... 4 CHAPTER TWO Defining the International Order ............................................. 7 The Post–World War II, Rules-Based Liberal Order ..........................12 The Order’s Purposes and Its Effects ........................................... 23 Conclusion and Policy Implications ........................................... 26 CHAPTER THREE Engines of International Order ...............................................31 Rational Pursuit of Common Interests .........................................32 Interests of a Hegemonic Power .................................................35 Domestic Politics ................................................................. 36 Socialization and Constructed Identities .......................................37 Systemic Effects ...................................................................39 Conclusion and Policy Implications ............................................41 v vi Understanding the Current International Order CHAPTER FOUR U.S. Approach to the International Order ................................. 43 U.S. Visions of the International Order ....................................... 43 The International Order in U.S. National Security Strategy Documents ....................................................................45 U.S. Interests and Approaches to the International Order ...................52 Conclusion and Policy Implications ........................................... 54 CHAPTER FIVE Implications for a Research Agenda ..........................................57 References .........................................................................59 Figures and Table Figures 2.1. Schematic Understanding of the Role of International Order ................................................................... 9 2.2. Elements and Engines of the Liberal International Order ......14 2.3. International Order, 1980 ..........................................18 3.1. Role of Causal Mechanisms .......................................32 Table 2.1. Alternative Conceptions of Order .................................25 vii Summary Since 1945, the United States has pursued its global interests through creating and maintaining international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms; these ordering mechanisms are often collectively referred to as the interna- tional order. In recent years, rising powers have begun to challenge aspects of this order. This report is part of a project, titled “Build- ing a Sustainable International Order,” that aims to understand the existing international order, assess current challenges to the order, and recommend future U.S. policies with respect to the order. The report reflects the project team’s attempt to understand the existing interna- tional order, including how U.S. decisionmakers have described and used the order in conducting foreign policy, as well as how academics have assessed the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior. The primary reason that we and others are focusing attention on the international order today is because it is perceived to be at risk— and, by extension, U.S. interests served by the order might also be at risk. An analysis of the character of the post–World War II order points to three broad categories of possible risk: 1. some leading states that see many components of the order as designed to constrain their power and perpetuate U.S. hege- mony 2. volatility from failed states or economic crises 3. shifting domestic politics in an era of slow growth and growing inequality. ix x Understanding the Current International Order The order’s legitimacy rests on states believing that participation in the order benefits them directly, and this belief is being shaken by various economic and social trends. Any of these three types of threats could prove fatal to the postwar order as we know it. This report represents the first publication of a two-year RAND Corporation study on the future of the postwar liberal international order. The project as a whole is set to examine three overarching issues: the nature of the order and its measurable effects, risks to the order, and options for U.S. strategy going forward. This report offers a context- setting analysis that defines the concept of international order. Despite the centrality of order to U.S. postwar grand strategy, the term order itself has been used in divergent ways by different observers. There is no consistent, widely understood definition of a rules-based liberal order. This report contributes to the debate by surveying the character of the postwar order, drawing on a wide range of sources, including • general international relations theory, for specific approaches or claims that bear on the origins and definitions of various forms of order • histories and treatments of the order-formation process that took place during and after World War II • scholarly assessments of the liberal order and its possible future • specific literatures on the causal logic of order, such as economic interdependence, and its effect on state preferences and behavior. As part of its definitional analysis, the report • discusses the concept of order in the broadest sense,
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