V25, N21 Thursday, Feb. 13, 2020

Buttigieg seeks his own ‘movement’ He nearly upset Sanders in NH; now he seeks to broaden his base as nomination map expands By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – Now the truly hard part for Pete Buttigieg begins. After historically narrow first- and second-place finishes in mostly white Iowa and New Hampshire, the former South Bend mayor is faced with forming his own “movement” to counter U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and the bottomless wal- let of billionaire Michael Bloom- berg. Buttigieg’s nascent cam- paign is one of epic overachieve- ment. Or as he told supporters in Nashua and a nationwide TV audience just before 11 Tuesday night, “Here in a state that goes by the motto ‘Live free or die,’ you made up your own minds. You asserted that famous independent streak and thanks to you, a campaign that some said browner America, with the Nevada caucuses and South shouldn’t be here at all has shown that we are here to Carolina primary coming in the next 18 days, followed stay.” Continued on page 3 The former South Bend mayor now heads into a Bernie scores, Mike looms By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders narrowly won the New Hampshire primary in an election that underscores how totally confusing and contradictory the presidential nominating process has become. After the “This legislation ensures that first primary, Democrats appear headed toward a choice between Indiana’s students, teachers and two candidates who aren’t really Democrats. schools have the time they need The win marks the second to successfully adjust to the new straight contest in which Sanders has won the popular vote though ILearn. I am grateful the General he trails runner-up candidate Assembly unanimously support- former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg in the delegate count. ed my call to take action.” Sanders and Buttigieg won an - Gov. Eric Holcomb, signing equal number of delegates in New Hampshire. Buttigieg won SEA2 on Wednesday. Page 2

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Brian A. Howey, Publisher Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar ended up on the same flight to Houston last Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington summer. The two are now fighting for the so-called moderate lane in the Democratic Mary Lou Howey, Editor presidential nomination fight. Susan E. Joiner, Editor the delegate race in Iowa while losing impeachment. The Trump strategy to Sanders by 6,000 votes. to use the impeachment trial to Sanders has consolidated destroy Biden seems to have worked Subscriptions support among progressive voters, though Biden clearly contributed to HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 but with just 26% of the vote, he his own apparent demise with a list- HPI Weekly, $350 won less than half of his total four less, inept campaign. Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager years ago when he defeated eventual Meanwhile, another for- (765) 452-3936 telephone nominee Hillary Clinton. Total votes mer front-runner, Elizabeth Warren, (765) 452-3973 fax for the top two moderate candidates ran a disappointing fourth having [email protected] exceeded those cast for the top two relinquished much of her progres- progressives. Yet Sanders is now the sive support to Bernie Sanders after he suffered a heart attack. War- Contact HPI Democratic front-runner. He has a committed base, an effective organi- ren’s mishandling of her position on [email protected] zation, and an ability to raise tens of health care drove away moderate Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 millions of dollars from his followers. left-of-center voters while giving Washington: 202.256.5822 Buttigieg ran strong again Sanders the opportunity to win back Business Office: 765.452.3936 with over 24% of the vote but was progressives who had moved to her likely denied a victory over Sanders over the summer. Ironically, her as some moderate voters became missteps occurred when she was © 2020, Howey Politics excited about a different candidate. defending Sanders’ Medicare for All Indiana. All rights reserved. Amy Klobuchar jumped from single plan although Sanders has avoided Photocopying, Internet forward- digits to almost 20% of the vote in the attacks on his plan that Warren ing, faxing or reproducing in any a matter of three days, keeping her sustained — or at least the intensity of those attacks. form, whole or part, is a violation campaign alive but also preventing Buttigieg from moving past Sand- The contest now turns to of federal law without permission ers. Klobuchar’s surprising success the Feb. 22 Nevada Caucus where from the publisher. also strengthens the hand of former polls show Sanders again leads. But- New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg tigieg needed to win in New Hamp- Jack E. Howey who looms large in the background. shire to give him maximum momen- tum as the race turns to terrain that editor emeritus Bloomberg’s ability to take control of the race is contingent upon the Demo- is less hospitable for him. Nevada 1926-2019 crats’ inability to settle on a moderate and South Carolina are diverse states candidate. unlike Iowa and New Hampshire that Former Vice President Joe are both more than 90% white. But- Biden’s campaign is in free fall as the tigieg’s apparent problems with Afri- once front-runner fell to fifth place can American voters means he is not in New Hampshire. Biden’s campaign likely to do as well there and then was badly hurt by the unsuccessful heads into Super Tuesday where he effort of House Democrats to remove is also currently weak. President Trump from office through It is not clear that Klobuchar Page 3 can take advantage of her New Hampshire showing either. But Bloomberg has thus far been campaigning in Klobuchar’s fundraising has been anemic for most of the an environment he himself controls and most Democrats campaign as her poll numbers languished in single digits. gravitating to him know little about him beyond what they As a result she has done little to prepare to compete in see in his TV ads. However, success brings scrutiny as Nevada, South Carolina, Super Tuesday and beyond. Un- tapes of some of Bloomberg’s more controversial state- like Warren who has pledged to soldier on, Klobuchar can ments have surfaced. In one Bloomberg justifies his “stop actually win somewhere — her home state of Minnesota and frisk” program that was subsequently ruled uncon- that votes on Super Tuesday. stitutional in coarse language some are characterizing as But a third-place showing, even a surprise one, racist. Bloomberg is working overtime in an attempt to may not provide sufficient momentum to carry her that far “earn” the support of black elected officials and convince unless she manages to also surprise in Nevada and South Democrats he can get out the vote. Nonetheless, his re- Carolina. That said, if Klobuchar does leapfrog Buttigieg in cord remains a potential liability. Nevada or South Carolina, she has a better chance than All of this adds up to a confused and divided the former South Bend mayor to emerge as a viable mod- Democratic nomination contest that could go to the erate alternative to Bloomberg because she has a better convention. Democrats are still trying to figure out their shot at attracting minority voters and especially women. best choice to defeat Trump. Unity and enthusiasm for The race that seemed about to relegate the women candi- the ultimate nominee are the keys to Democrats defeating dates to the second tier has one to get behind after all, at Trump. But many long time Democrats will be dissatisfied least for now. if the nomination comes down to a choice between Bernie Many moderate Democrats are in a panic over Sanders, a self-described Democratic socialist, and Michael Sanders’ possible nomination. Desperate to beat Trump, Bloomberg, a billionaire and former Republican mayor. they are flocking to Bloomberg, who was first elected Republicans are no doubt feeling smug about the mayor of New York as a Republican. Bloomberg, who has Democrats’ dilemma. Yet their nomination process pro- already spent over $200 million in post-South Carolina duced Donald Trump, who as president is on his way to states, is moving up in the polls as a result of his spending destroying the GOP and American democracy as we have spree. Moderate Democrats like him because he projects known them. v strength and they believe he is the only Democrat tough enough to stand up to Trump. Elites like him because they Sautter is a Democratic media consultant based in feel they can trust him not to bring too much real change. Washington.

South Carolina expanded to 55 staff members across six Buttigieg, from page field offices, as well as 100 in Nevada. The campaign by Super Tuesday on March 3 has also been investing in paid media across the state, in diverse states like Texas and running digital, television and radio ads, including one California. He does so as the first featuring Walter Clyburn Reed and Abe Jenkins reflecting openly gay candidate just two on the legacies of their respective grandfathers. Clyburn presidential cycles into an era Reed is the grandson of Rep. James E. Clyburn, and Jen- when that isn’t seen as a disqual- kins is the grandson of civil rights leader Esau Jenkins. ifying electoral liability, and as a It’s an attempt to fixthe glaring hole in his mayor of a medium-sized Indiana resume, the lack of African-American support, which was city, for an office that has never just 4% in the most recent Charleston Post & Courier South Carolina State Rep. J.A. had such an official attempt such poll. Buttigieg is polling in the single digits in the Real Moore endorsed Pete Buttigieg a career leap. Clear Politics polling composites in Nevada (7%), South on Wednesday. On Wednesday morn- Carolina (5.5%), California (7.3%), and Texas (5%). But ing, Buttigieg began his move that’s been familiar territory for the mayor. toward gaining African-American support seen as vital to “We have to engage voters in very racially diverse what could be a generational movement. He announced states,” Buttigieg said early Wednesday morning on MS- the endorsement of South Carolina State Rep. J.A. Moore, NBC’s “Morning Joe.” “We have to share this message that an African-American businessman and chef. “Electability we have to come together and confront Donald Trump and is top of mind for every South Carolina voter. If anyone unify the Democratic Party over values we share. There’s had doubts, Pete Buttigieg has proven he’s the only viable going to be a very clear choice here. Sen. Sanders, who candidate to build a cross-racial, rural, urban and suburban I greatly respect, has got an approach that you’ve either coalition to win in November.” said Moore. got to be for his revolution or the status quo. Most people That endorsement came as Pete for America in don’t see where they fit in that message. Our message is real, meaningful, bold, progressive reform in a way that Page 4 can actually bring Americans boots on the ground in every Super Tues- together and not polarize us.” day state that will help further resource Asked about the coming and train thousands of grassroots vol- pitch to Palmetto State blacks, unteer networks in all 165 congressional Buttigieg explained, “The key is districts, the campaign said. Additionally, that I’m sharing South Bend’s Pete for America announced four upcom- story but also other black and ing trips in the next two weeks that will Latino voices from our com- take Buttigieg to Super Tuesday states munity are also sharing their including California, North Carolina, Utah, experience of South Bend’s story. and Virginia. This also comes on the The Douglass Plan isn’t some- heels of a six-figure digital buy in several thing that just came out of the Super Tuesday states. He has fundraisers blue. It connects to things we’ve set later this week in Indianapolis and learned, sometimes the hard California. way, at home. Just like America’s “We are building the campaign story, our city’s story is complex that will not only win this nomination but and challenging, but it is a story will defeat Donald Trump in November,” of working side by side to deliver said Samantha Steelman, organizing for black residents. I’ll be telling that story so ideas of the director for Super Tuesday States. “To compete in all the Douglass Plan connect to the world that I’ve done. states on Super Tuesday, you need a massive network of “A lot of the folks I’ve talked to over the last year grassroots volunteers. For months, we have had a team say, ‘The plan seems great ... but, c’mon, are you really building that organization by harnessing the energy and going to be a competitive campaign?’ Now that we’ve put grassroots momentum behind Pete and turning it into real that question to rest, I think we’re getting a whole new organizing work. This ramp up will provide more staff and look from black and Latino voters who have so much riding resources to train, resource, and guide our 25,000 volun- on whether we defeat Donald Trump.” teers in Super Tuesday states that will push our campaign With the apparent implosion of former vice across the finish line on March 3rd.” president Joe Biden, the key question is where does his Buttigieg burnished his campaign cred this past support go? Veteran analyst Josh Kraushaar of the Na- week in a state that Sanders won in a landslide four years tional Journal observed, “Who wins the African-American ago. In addition to Sanders’ movement and Bloomberg’s vote going forward? No one, other than Biden, has a claim profound wealth, Buttigieg will have to fend off the late to their support. Bernie has a faction of the activist base, surge of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who prevented but deeply skeptical he can broaden support.” the outright Buttigieg Granite State upset. With Biden im- U.S. Rep. James Clyburn said Wednesday morn- ploding, Buttigieg will attempt to consolidate the “moder- ing Biden “is still the leading candidate in South Carolina. ate” middle lane, which carried more than 55% of the New I think Nevada will have an impact” but said that Biden Hampshire vote. Veteran operative David Axelrod said, lacked a forward leaning perspective. New York Post “What is striking ... and we saw last week in Iowa as well, columnist Ben Domenech wrote Wednesday of Biden, “He Pete Buttigieg runs relatively well across all categories. He is low on money, and the crush of ad spending by Michael does well in different kinds of communities. And he has Bloomberg and Tom Steyer in critical states means that he done a good job of casting a broad message that is hitting can barely afford to compete in key markets. His events a large target.” seem exhausted and strained, his voice quavering between Two weeks ago, Real Clear Politics polling com- a harsh staccato and a whisper.” posite in New Hampshire had Sanders leading at 25%, Joe As for his pitch to Nevada this next week, But- Biden at 17%, Elizabeth Warren and Buttigieg tied at 14%, tigieg noted that a wide swath of labor isn’t interested in with Klobuchar at 6%. ABC News exit polling revealed But- Sanders’ Medicare for All plan. “Nevada is a great place tigieg won those who made their choice in the campaign’s where union workers gave concessions on wages to get closing days. . excellent plans,” Buttigieg explained yesterday on ‘Morn- The other key challenge for Buttigieg is money. ing Joe’. “I’m talking about culinary workers ... who are Not only is he coming up against Bloomberg’s deep pock- prioritizing health care and they are not interested in Sen. ets, but Sanders announced he raised an astounding $25 Sanders’ plan of eliminating all private plans. They actu- million in January. CNBC reported that one new Buttigieg ally got and fought for the good coverage they have now. supporter is former Goldman Sachs partner David Heller. If the choice is between Sen. Sanders telling them they’re Another is National Association of Manufacturers president going to have to give that up and me saying we can and CEO Jerry Jasinowski. His campaign has spent more increase enhanced choice ... I think that is a very good in South Carolina than in Nevada so far, but that may be debate for us to have.” changing. Mr. Buttigieg has $388,000 in ads placed for this Starting Monday, the Buttigieg campaign will have week in Nevada and $75,000 in South Carolina.v Page 5

of the GOP Iowa caucus, only to have that party’s estab- lishment revise that 2012 outcome in favor of the forget- Populist movements table Rick Santorum. Never mind. like Trump & Sanders In 2016, Trump secured the Republican presiden- tial nomination in Indiana with virtually no establishment rendering parties moot GOP support. It wasn’t until Gov. Mike Pence, following his mealy-mouthed “endorsement” of Ted Cruz that April, as- By BRIAN A. HOWEY cended to Trump’s ticket that the Hoosier party’s hierarchy INDIANAPOLIS – Before Sen. Bernie Sanders’ ended up following the masses. Sanders won that year’s narrow New Hampshire primary victory Tuesday night over Indiana primary with the same 53% of the vote Trump Pete Buttigieg, Notre Dame Prof. Robert Schmuhl ques- won, but without a single establishment Democrat endors- tioned the viability of the two major political parties in his ing his candidacy. His current “movement” is void of such recently published book, “The Glory and the Burden: The support from Hoosier Democratic leadership. American Presidency from FDR to Trump.“ Schmuhl notes that only 9% of the 60 million Is Sanders on his way to what would be the Americans who showed up at a primary or caucus in the continuation of a new trend in 2016 primaries voted for either Trump or Hillary Clinton. American politics: The individ- The nominating process of the two major parties is inex- ual takeover of the two major plicable to students, and, as Iowa has repeatedly demon- parties by the Vermont senator strated, is in need of significant reform. and the current White House That Sanders is now on a collision course with inhabitant, President Donald President Trump might dovetail into Prof. Schmuhl’s draw- Trump. These twin forces have ing on two lines from W. B. Yeats’s poem, “The Second induced considerable volatility Coming,” which describes a time when the extremes domi- in the world’s oldest republic nate without an anchoring midpoint: “Things fall apart; and super power. the center cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the If you need an accom- world.” panying soundtrack, Donald In 1965, Medicare and Medicaid passed the Trump’s 2016 Republican Democratically controlled Congress with 13 GOP sena- National Convention acceptance speech in Cleveland will tors and 70 congressmen voting yea. The 1998 and 2019 suffice: “Nobody knows the system better than me, which impeachments of Presidents Clinton and Trump were party is why I alone can fix it.” line acts, as was the 2010 passage of Obamacare. That Schmuhl, whose son Mike Schmuhl is Pete Buttigieg’s campaign manager, writes of the Vermont socialist’s loss to Hillary Clinton in June 2016: “Sand- ers in defeat took with him a following of supporters afire with the political passion that one didn’t detect with Clinton backers. When Trump beat Clinton in November, more than a few analysts wondered aloud whether Sanders would have been more appealing to ‘the forgotten men and women’ of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin who put Trump over the top in the Electoral College. “Trump and Sanders exemplify the weak- ening nature of the major parties as political institu- tions,” Schmuhl observes. “Most observers date Trump’s prompted Pew Research to note in 2011, “Congress is now association with the GOP only back to his questioning of more polarized than at any time since the end of Recon- Obama’s birth certificate of 2011, while Sanders’s official struction.” Senate biography identifies him as ‘the longest serving Schmuhl writes, “The greater emphasis on the independent member of Congress in American history.’” extremes, conservative or liberal, the less we see any at- He then poses this question: “Have the parties tempt to arrive at a political midpoint, what might be con- actually become obsolete or extraneous in the nominating sidered an animating center, that brings together the best process of the so-called party standard bearer?” thinking from the left and the right in a dynamic synthesis The Iowa caucus debacle that robbed Mayor Pete of contesting viewpoints. The relative absence of biparti- of vital momentum heading into New Hampshire is one sanship leads to legitimate complaints of political paralyses more instance of a major political party malfunction, com- and governmental dysfunction.” ing eight years after Mitt Romney was declared the winner In the 2018 Lugar Partisan Index that gauges Page 6 congressional bipartisanship, the 100th and peared to provide stability, in that the two- lowest rated senator was … Bernie Sanders term presidencies of Bill Clinton, George W. (Sens. Elizabeth Warren was 69th, and Amy Bush and Barack Obama were the first such Klobuchar 23rd). trifecta since Founding Fathers Thomas Jeffer- Sanders’ emergence comes just son, James Madison and James Monroe pulled a week after President Trump was acquitted off the same feat between 1800 and 1824 in in his Senate impeachment trial, a politi- an era pre-dating political parties as we know cal effort doomed to failure, and on the them today. same night Trump roiled the Department of What is now in motion are presidential Justice over the Roger Stone sentencing. In movements. Trump and Sanders are move- its wake, a few recalcitrant House Demo- ment politicians, gathering up tides of people crats talked of a second impeachment of convinced that the system has been rigged Trump (particularly if he wins a second term against them ... because of the sclerosis next November), while Republican attorney forged by computerized reapportionment George Conway and Iowa Republican U.S. maps, wiping out Blue Dog Democrats and Sen. Joni Ernst talked of further weapon- moderate Republicans, and making way for izing impeachment, with the latter say- the extremes. For Buttigieg to prevail, he will ing, “I think this door of impeachable whatever has been have to fashion his upstart campaign as a movement as opened. Joe Biden should be very careful what he’s asking well. for because, you know, we can have a situation where if it Potentially standing in the way is an- should ever be President Biden, that immediately people other billionaire, former Republican New York City Mayor right the day after he would be elected would be saying, Michael Bloomberg, who appears intent on spending $1 ‘Well, we’re going to impeach him.’” billion of his estimated $60 billion on his own candidacy, The modern yield of presidents might have ap- or that of the eventual Democratic nominee. The delicious Page 7 wrinkle here is the “Democratic Socialist” Bernie Sanders them. The distrust is mutual. ‘Bernie isn’t a Democrat, he could be the key beneficiary of this billionaire’s largess. is a ‘movement,’” former Democratic State Chairman Chris “Socialism destroys nations,” Trump warned dur- Spirou told me. ‘I’d go so far as to say that Bernie Sanders ing his State of the Union address last week. “We will is a cult. He’s the leader of a cult!’” never let socialism destroy American health care.” But Or as Sanders put it in his Tuesday night victory Trump spent $28 billion to bail out American farmers speech, “This victory here is the beginning of the end for in 2019, significantly more than the $22 billion of tax- Donald Trump. The reason we’re going to win is we’re put- payer funds to save General Motors and Chrysler in 2009 ting together a multi-racial, multi-cultural movement.” (which, by the way, was repaid). Washington Post reporter Robert Costa noted The Atlantic’s T.A. Frank noted that author that in the wake of New Hampshire, “Two strands become and socialist Upton Sinclair wrote to a friend in 1951, immediately evident: 1.) There’s a bloc of the Democratic “The American people will take socialism, but they won’t Party that is yearning for generational change and to have take the label.” someone with Mayor Buttigieg’s profile come forward from Indiana was home to five-time Socialist presiden- a place South Bend, Ind., echoing the messaging and tial nominee Eugene Debs of Terre Haute, but he never the rhetoric of President Obama, and say they can take mustered more than 5.6% of his home state’s vote, com- this era of the Democratic Party and move it forward. 2.) ing in 1912 in an election pre-dating the Russian Revolu- There’s also a huge appetite on the left wing for a populist tion of 1917 that stained in blood the Socialist brand. Democratic Socialist change to a system that many people Newsweek columnist Howard Fineman writes believe needs to have remedies from the federal level. of the Iowa caucus fiasco, “combined ... with Trump’s “Those two elements are colliding,” Costa said. repeated humiliation of the GOP” may be the final blow to “There’s a yearning for populism and a yearning for gen- the reputation of parties. erational change. The only thing throwing a wrench into What has replaced it all? Fineman asks. “Three this is Sen. Klobuchar’s performance, raising the question forces: (1.) Unique, innovative methods of raising and of Mayor Buttigieg’s experience.” spending huge amounts of cash; (2.) laser-focused arrays So it may be time to brace yourself for the 21st of policy proposals that amount to ‘revolutionary’ or popu- Century brand of politics: Billionaire cults and a hollowing list manifestos; (3.) mastery of cutting-edge social-media, out of the political center, amplified by fake news, alterna- digital, viral means of organizing and communication. tive facts, socialism and socialism-lite. Here in New Hampshire, Fineman observes, We have a republic. The critical question is wheth- “Sanders isn’t relying on local politicians; he’s avoiding er we can keep it. v Page 8

qualify him. Roth posted on his personal Facebook page, “It might be over in the mind of Kyle Hupfer but options Signature drama as remain. We did fall short of collecting the required signa- tures.” Myers lines up to Indiana Republican Chairman Kyle Hupfer, who doubles as Holcomb’s campaign manager, said Friday, challenge Holcomb “While Brian Roth came up short of collecting the neces- sary signatures to be on the May primary ballot, I appreci- By BRIAN A. HOWEY ate the effort he and his supporters put in over the last INDIANAPOLIS — The gubernatorial field is set. few months to be active in our party. Although his signa- Democrat Woody Myers will challenge Gov. Eric Holcomb, ture collection effort was not successful and he will not be who starts with more than a $7 million cash advantage. on the ballot in May, I am encouraged by Brian’s willing- If there was any drama left in this race, it was ness to put himself in the public arena.” whether Myers and Indianapolis businessman Josh Owens Campaign spokesman Jake Oakman told HPI would have enough signatures on Sunday, “The secretary of state’s office lists him as a to qualify for the ballot by last candidate because he filed, but he wouldn’t be able to Friday’s noon filing deadline. sustain a challenge to the Election Board.” Oakman said Myers announced last Thursday Roth is about 2,000 signatures short. “Someone could file that he did; Owens did, too, but with no signatures at all and they’d be on the ballot if no then dropped out of the race. He one challenged it.” The Holcomb campaign won’t file that seemed to equate who filed their challenge, but expects one to come from a citizen. signatures first was tantamount to winning the primary. “We knew the primary was going to come down to who Holcomb endorsed by Indiana Builders qualified for the ballot first,” Owens told the IBJ. “It was Indiana Builders Association endorsed Holcomb, going to be a sprint. We knew the primary might be de- the first time the association has made a preference. “It is cided before May.” critical that the home building industry support candidates With that mind-numbing logic in place, Myers told for public office that understand the the IBJ that “it’s a very important role housing plays in Indi- different race when you ana’s overall economy,” said Indiana don’t have a primary Builders Association President Brett challenger. It just means Harter. “Gov. Holcomb’s success in you have to double down bringing jobs to our state and making on your efforts in order Indiana a desired place to work and to make sure you get the live during his tenure has earned the resources you need, the support and respect of our leader- votes that you need, on ship across the state. It is our honor and on. I’ve got 270 days to endorse his reelection as Indiana’s left in my job interview. governor.” According to Harter, Gov. I consider a campaign to Holcomb’s leadership in Indiana’s be a very long job inter- long-term infrastructure plan, Next view. I’m going to contin- Level Jobs initiative and community ue to work to earn every rehabilitation efforts make him an single vote that I can get. ideal candidate for the association. I know we need between This is the first endorsement ever 1 million and 1.3 million made by the IBA. Hoosiers to see things our way and to give me this Congress opportunity to serve, and Republican Brian Roth filed for governor, but admitted in a I’m going to give them 1st CD: 19 candidates file every reason to say yes Facebook posting he lacked the necessary qualification Hammond Mayor Thomas Mc- between now and No- signatures. Dermott Jr. is the frontrunner for vember.” this open seat, and faces a spirited challenge from North Besides Owens, the other “stunt candidate” (i.e. Township Trustee Frank Mrvan Jr., and State Rep Mara an obscure hopeful with no track record inside the party, Candaleria Reardon and Jim Harper, along with 11 other running to seek publicity) is Republican Brian Roth of Ham- Democratic candidates. Six Republicans also filed. ilton County. He filed, but in a campaign Facebook posting said he will wait to see if the secretary of state’s office will Page 9 5th CD: Brizzi enters race Bera, chair of the NewDem Action Fund. “Christina has Former Marion County prosecutor Carl Brizzi is committed to that same approach and has what it takes joining the crowded field of Republicans seeking the nomi- to win in this competitive district. We look forward to nation to run for Indiana’s 5th CD (Indiana Lawyer). Brizzi standing side by side through 2020 and beyond.” Hale had served as Marion County prosecutor for two terms, from previously been named a “candidate to watch” by the or- 2002 until 2010, before going back into private practice. ganization and has gone on to earn the support of dozens He was known as a political up-and-comer who had a high of state, local and national groups and has set fundraising conviction rate, especially for narcotics and sex-crimes records. “I am running for Congress to get things done, to cases. For years, Brizzi was embattled in controversy work across the aisle and to restore some common sense stemming from accusations he accepted bribes while in of- to Washington,” said Hale. “I’m excited to know that there fice. He was investigated by the FBI for accepting $25,000 are others that share my practical approach.” in campaign contributions from the father of a woman who was seeking a modification to a murder sentence and 6th CD: Last 3 Dem nominees file for arranging a lenient plea bargain for a business part- The last three unsuccessful 6th CD Democratic ner’s client. He was never charged with a crime. Then in nominees have filed for the nomination to take on U.S. 2017, he was suspended from practicing law in Indiana Rep. Greg Pence. They are George T. Holland, Barry for 30 days after the Indiana Supreme Court Disciplin- Welsh, and 2018 nominee Jeannine Lee Lake. ary Commission found he violated prohibitions against representing a client in a case in which he had a personal 8th CD: Drake seeks rematch interest. “I’ve been through the trenches,” he said. “I don’t The 2016 Democratic nominee Ron Drake has think anyone has been more investigated or vetted than filed, seeking a rematch with U.S. Rep. Larry Bucshon. I have been, so I see it as a plus.” The GOP field includes Drake faces labor activist Thomasina Marsili and Mike Kent Abernathy, Andrew Bates, Micah Beckwith, Allen R. Webster. Davidson, Chuck Dietzen, Beth Henderson, Matthew Hook, Matthew Hullinger, Danny Niederberger, Indiana Treasurer 9th CD: 5 Dems seek nomination Kelly Mitchell, State Sen. Victoria Spartz, Mark Small, Vic- Five Democrats seeking the nomination to chal- tor Wakley and Russell Stwalley. lenge U.S. Rep. Trey Hollingsworth are former Bloom- ington councilman Andy Ruff, Rev. Mark Powell, Brandon Braun headlines Henderson fundraiser Hood, Liam Dorris and James O’Gabhann III. U.S. Sen. Mike Braun and former state senator Luke Kenley will host a fundraiser for 5th CD Republican Statewides candidate Beth Henderson from 5:30 to 7 p.m. Monday, Feb. 17, at the Booth Tarkington House owned by Doris Attorney general: Melton endorses Tallian Anne and Tim Sadler with Nancy and Charlie Hiltunen as State Sen. Karen Tallian has been endorsed by co-hosts. State Sen. Eddie Melton for attorney general. Tallian faces former Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel. “Karen Tal- Cardwell endorses Dietzen lian has been a great partner and leader in the Senate,” Chuck Dietzen received the endorsement of for- mer Indiana Republican chairman Jeff Cardwell. “I am proud to endorse Dr. Chuck Dietzen for United States Congress,” Cardwell said. “Chuck is an unapologetic pro-life conservative leader and the embodiment of Hoosier values. I have known Chuck for over 20 years as we have served together to combat global housing, hunger, and health challenges. His heart for serving others remains unmatched and his passion to walk alongside those in need are both admirable and contagious. A doctor, an entrepreneur, and a lifelong Republican; there is no one more fit to serve Hoosiers in Washington.”

Hale endorsed by Action Fund The New Democratic Action Fund announced their endorsement of Christina Hale for Congress. “NewDems stand for fresh approaches, bold ideas, and meaningful progress,” said Congressman Ami Page 10 Melton said. “Her record and expertise on criminal justice HD36: Pierce to challenge Austin reform make her the clear choice for attorney general. Republican Kyle Pierce has filed to run for HD36 I look forward to continuing our work to strengthen our and as the only Republican to file, will challenge State Rep. communities when she is attorney general.” Terri Austin. “Citizens of House District 36 deserve a state representative who will work every day to protect manu- General Assembly facturing jobs and to attract high paying industries. My experience as former deputy director of the Indiana Medi- HD6: Bauer’s daughter running cal Device Manufacturers Council will allow me to focus Maureen Bauer is seeking to extend the family on job creation for Hoosiers starting on day one,” Pierce dynasty to three generations; she filed for the seat State said in a statement released Monday. “I will fight to direct Rep. B. Patrick Bauer and her grandfather, Bernie Bauer, more education dollars to the classroom where it will work held for almost 60 years. Rep. Bauer, 75, a Democrat who for Hoosier children and their families, while also fighting held the seat for 50 years, an- against funding special interests,” Pierce added. nounced Jan. 27 that he would step down. Running in the May SD36: Dems run digital ads v. Sandlin 5 Democratic primary to succeed The Indiana Senate Democrats Committee, the him are his daughter, Maureen campaign arm of the Indiana Senate Democratic Caucus, Bauer, 35; Drew Duncan, 30; today announced “Big Government Jack Sandlin,” a new and Garrett Blad, 25. St. Joseph digital ad buy focused on Senate Bill 436 and its co-author County Democratic Party Chair State Sen. Jack Sandlin (SD-36). SB 436 would have al- Stan Wruble told the South Bend lowed the state government to supercede prosecutorial Tribune that when Bauer told him discretion and prosecute Hoosiers who are simply follow- he wouldn’t seek reelection, and ing their local city policies. This bill is a direct contradiction that his daughter would run for his to the Indiana Republican Party’s political attacks on “big seat, Bauer commented, “Money government” over the last decade. for her campaign won’t be a problem.” When contacted by The Tribune, Bauer said he hadn’t decided whether to SD10: Bowman challenges Niezgodski give the money to his daughter’s campaign. If he does, Local attorney Alex C. Bowman has launched a pri- he won’t give it all to her, he said; he’ll also give some mary challenge to State Sen. David Niezgodski. “Elections to other Democrats who polling indicates can win their should be about choice,” Bowman said about his decision races. Maureen Bauer said, “I plan to fundraise and knock to become the second of two Democratic candidates vying on doors, make phone calls and do all that is typical of a for the position. “I believe it’s always better for the vot- campaign. In the end, it’s about meeting the voters and ers to choose their candidates than to have the choice getting their vote for the most qualified candidate, which I made for them.” Bowman said he was keeping a years-old believe I am. I think some of the money will certainly stay promise he made to himself, that upon earning his law de- in the district to get the House District 6 candidate elected, gree he would return to his hometown and be a voice for but there are many other races that are important. My dad people in the community that means so much to him. “I has worked very hard across the state to get Democrats am committed to promoting the kind of economic growth elected.” and job opportunities in South Bend and Mishawaka.” v Page 11

Cancer screening bill advances Audit shows $68M A House-approved proposal to require health insurance companies to cover colorectal cancer screening beginning at age 45, instead of 50, is advancing in the mispent by schools Senate (Carden, NWI Times). But a change to House Bill Howey Politics Indiana 1080 adopted Wednesday by the Senate Committee on INDIANAPOLIS — A special investigation by Insurance and Financial Institutions means many at-risk state auditors found that officials from two Indiana virtual Hoosiers will not immediately be eligible to take advan- charter schools misspent more than $85 million in state tage of the lower screening age. State Rep. Brad Barrett, funding by inflating enrollment and funneling millions to a R-Richmond, the sponsor, said he recently was informed tangled web of related companies (Wang, Chalkbeat). In by the governor’s office that his legislation needed to be what has become one of the na- amended to exclude high-deductible health plans because tion’s largest virtual charter school federal health savings account rules currently limit spend- scandals, Indiana Virtual School ing on colorectal cancer screenings to patients age 50 and and Indiana Virtual Pathways up. As a result, the approximately 60% of privately-insured Academy officials showed “sub- Hoosiers covered by a high-deductible health plan won’t stantial disregard” for following automatically be eligible for colorectal cancer screening the rules and may have “focused at age 45, if Barrett’s revised proposal becomes law. “The on maximizing profits and revenues by exploiting perceived way it stands now, we need to exclude that population to vulnerabilities” in local oversight and state funding pro- not cause violations with the tax-exempt status for health cesses, the report said. The state auditors’ scathing report, savings accounts,” said Barrett, a retired surgeon. Never- released Wednesday, follows a series of Chalkbeat inves- theless, a majority of committee members agreed it still tigations revealing financial conflicts of interest at Indiana was worth moving ahead with the lower screening age Virtual School and Indiana Virtual Pathways Academy and after several doctors testified that colorectal cancer usually their dismally low academic results. The two virtual charter is treatable if it’s caught early. schools shut down last summer after allegations of enroll- ment fraud first emerged. The state report seeks repay- House unlikley to restore ment for more than $85 million in public dollars inappro- pregnancy provisions priately spent on companies connected to school officials. It looks unlikely the House will restore employ- In the past three years, the two schools sent 83% of their ment accommodations for pregnant workers that were total funding to related companies, the report found. Ac- stripped out in the Senate last week (Smith, Indiana cording to the report, the misspent funds include more Public Media). The issue appears headed for a summer than $68 million that the schools improperly collected from study committee even as Gov. Eric Holcomb pushes for the state — far more than initially reported — by recording more. Pregnant employees have a patchwork of protec- inactive students more than 14,000 times over eight years. tions across state and federal law. Legislation this session In some cases, those were people who merely requested would’ve ensured that employers reasonably accommodate information through the schools’ website or students who their pregnant workers – things like seating or more fre- had moved out-of-state — and in one instance, a student quent or longer breaks. But Senate Republicans eliminated who had died. “Taxpayers are literally paying tens, if not those provisions. And House Speaker Brian Bosma (R-Indi- hundreds of millions of dollars to a school for students anapolis) appears unwilling to restore them. “It was a new who aren’t even there,” said Todd Ziebarth, senior vice proposal this year,” Bosma says. “And it was the governor’s president for state advocacy and support for the National proposal – we want to be very respectful of that. But it Alliance for Public Charter Schools. had a lot of pushback in the business community.” Rep. Cindy Kirchhofer (R-Beech Grove), the bill’s sponsor, says Holcomb signs ILearn harmless bill she’ll push for what she can get enough votes to pass. Gov. Eric J. Holcomb offered the following state- “I’ve got to consider business as well as pregnant moms,” ment after signing Next Level Agenda legislation SEA 2, Kirchhofer says. “Obviously, pregnant moms are a valuable which will prevent ILEARN test scores from having an resource and we want to take care of them.”v adverse impact on teacher evaluations and school ac- countability grades in an effort to ease the transition to ILEARN.“This legislation ensures that Indiana’s students, teachers and schools have the time they need to success- fully adjust to the new ILEARN. I am grateful that the General Assembly unanimously supported my call to take action allowing educators to remain focused on helping Hoosier students succeed.” Page 12

ler spent $36 million and failed to find any criminal act on the part of Donald Trump, not even a single incidence of Gambling on our jaywalking. This only momentarily fazed the Democrats in the political races House of Representatives. House Intelligence (an oxy- By CRAIG DUNN moron if I ever heard one) Chairman Adam Schiff then KOKOMO — Indiana is now a gambling mecca. convened a top secret investigation of his own into pos- We can play scratch offs, play the numbers, indulge our- sible Trump offenses that might be conjured up for use selves playing Willy Wonka for money, bet on the ponies as an impeachment excuse. Try as he might to stack the and now we can wager on sports. The next expansion of deck and rig the game, he was floundering about until the gaming that I’d like to see is unnamed whistleblower blew his whistle. Forget for the political bookmaking. After all, if moment that the whistleblower had zero first-hand infor- we can bet on whether the Colts mation. Forget that the whistleblower was a Hillary Clinton will score on their next drive (bet partisan. Forget that the whistleblower was coached by against it), get a kick blocked members of Schiff’s staff in how to write a juicy complaint. (bet on it) or whether we’ll win Forget all of this and remember that President Trump the Super Bowl next year (called was guilty of committing a quid pro quo with Ukraine. a sucker bet in Vegas), then why Never mind that there was never a quo in the quid pro can’t we bet on politics? quo. Democrats had an issue that they could use to craft Imagine going to the articles of impeachment. sports book right now and mak- This was what the do-nothing Democrats in ing a wager on who will emerge the House of Representatives had longed for since January as the 5th Congressional District of 2017. Doubt it? Here is what Democrat Maxine Waters Republican candidate or on how told Essence Magazine in September, 2019, “I have been badly Gov. Holcomb will trounce his Democrat opponent. calling for and talking about impeachment of this president Maybe drop a fiver on whether or not Attorney General since his inauguration.” Curtis Hill will survive his ethics complaint and be the Re- So many challenges and problems facing our na- publican candidate for AG in 2020. tion and the Democrats have done nothing since they took Now that might spark my interest in gambling. control in 2018 except stage an attempted coup d’etat. Of course, the first bet that I’d make is what the Democrats are now faced with the reality that President charge will be for President Trump’s next impeachment. If Donald Trump has been acquitted by the United States you think that all of this impeachment nonsense is going Senate and possibly will be reelected in large part because away, then you have been living in la-la land. Remember, of the heavy handed bungling of Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler the first calls for the impeachment of President Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. began in the spring of 2017, when Ukraine was still just After their upcoming impeachment defeat, like Hunter Biden’s personal piggy bank. groundhogs, the Democrats will go Back in those quaint days of yore, back into their holes and try and Trump was being excoriated for his look productive as we lead up to collusion with Vlad the Impaler and the 2020 election. But this will not the rigging of the 2016 election. last long. The calls for a new Trump Remember those sweet days impeachment will begin again as when Rachel Maddow, CNN, NBC, Democrats scramble to find some CBS, ABC, the New York Times and new bogus infraction on the part of the Washington Post absolutely knew the president. that Donald J. Trump actively worked This leads me back to with Russia to swing the 2016 elec- my new Indiana revenue source of tion in his favor and destroy poor political betting. Let’s get this new Hlilary Clinton’s chance to be presi- expansion of gambling passed be- dent? fore President Trump takes his oath Remember the joy in the halls of Congress of office in January, 2021. To speed when Robert Mueller was appointed special prosecu- things up a bit, let’s promise the teachers that the state’s tor charged with investigating Trump’s alleged collusion, handle on political wagering will go to increased teacher obstruction of justice and failure to use mouthwash? Oh, salaries. That should make this expansion bi-partisan and the euphoria as Hillary’s boys and girls in the FBI, CIA extremely popular. and Department of Justice conspired to overturn the 2016 What would I like to see as the very first politi- election results. But then, something went wrong. Muel- cal bet for 2021? I’d like to be able to wager what the grounds for President Trump’s next impeachment will be. I Page 13 would like to bet a C note that there will eventually be an Maybe the United States will be seduced into em- article of impeachment that accuses the president of infus- bracing socialism or communism-light and will elect one of ing bigotry into policy that is harming our society. I am the current crop of tax, spend and give Democrat presi- willing to make this bet because one of the new leaders of dential candidates. Donald Trump will be vanquished and Democrat Party political thought, Rep. Rashida Talib, has everything will be right with the world and the unicorns advocated for just such an article. As we all know, it is a will play in candyland once more. I wouldn’t bet on that!v short distance from Talib’s lips to Nancy’s ears. In a politi- cal party where the inmates run the asylum, ridiculous Dunn is the former Howard County Republican thoughts miraculously become policy. chairman..

Think about how incredible those numbers are coming from deeply conservative Indiana (especially con- Sen. Braun lines up sidering one survey used the phrase “global warming”), and then it becomes clear why the leaders of 10 Indiana on climate change College Republican chapters, as well as the state federa- By PETE SEAT tion chairman, are urging our state’s Republican congres- INDIANAPOLIS — For decades now, ever since Al sional delegation to acknowledge the political reckoning Gore became synonymous with global warming, Republi- taking place. cans have mocked, ridiculed and sneered at prophesiers What these young Republicans pinpoint is the of “climate change.” Whether reality that the party must at the very least sit at the table a heat wave or a cold spell, and engage in a good faith discussion about what many, all were similarly dismissed as including our global partners, believe to be a deadly prob- hocus pocus and Hogwartsian lem. Whether you agree with the dire predictions of floods, wizardry. But now, as polling hurricanes and melting glaciers or not, the political reality suggests the Republican Party will not change any time soon and the discussion cannot may be experiencing a reverse be entirely dominated by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and tractor beam pull with young others. voters turned off by the lack of And while there are multiple options on the table, climate seriousness, a new tune including a plan to plant one trillion trees to help suck up is being sung on Capitol Hill. carbon dioxide from the air, these young Republicans are High-profile congressmen gravitating toward a more comprehensive plan that leading such as Kevin McCarthy, Matt economists say is economically sound, the aforementioned Gaetz and Dan Crenshaw, as carbon dividends. well as Indiana’s very own Sen. Mike Braun, names typi- This idea, championed by two Republican elder cally heard in the context of their steadfast support for statesmen in former secretaries of state Jim Baker and President Donald Trump, are all expressing an appetite for George Shultz, would impose a $40-per-ton fee on fossil engaging in a discussion about the climate, and it is slowly fuel companies emitting carbon into the atmosphere. But taking Washington, and the Republican Party, by storm (no then it will do something novel. Rather than fill govern- pun intended). In fact, Gaetz recently told the Washington ment coffers with cash, the assessed fees would be im- Examiner that “climate denial is bad political strategy” and mediately returned to the American people on a quarterly Braun last year co-founded the Senate Climate Solutions basis, similar to a dividend-producing stock. Caucus alongside Delaware Democrat Chris Coons. The plan’s supporters argue this is a conserva- Polling suggests their sense of urgency to act tive approach to the issue. And again the numbers bear is not misguided. According to recently published data this out. Fifty-five percent of Hoosiers are in support of from Americans for Carbon Dividends, four in 10 Hoosiers this particular solution, including 77% of Democrats, 54% are more concerned about the climate than they were at of Independents and a whopping 66% of Republicans 45 this time a year ago (only 10% are less concerned) and a years old and younger. full six in 10 say action is necessary. To put a finer point But here’s the real Republican hook in the plan: on this: In only five of Indiana’s 92 counties did fewer A border adjustment that would assess the same fee on than 50% of respondents agree that “global warming foreign imports. This pillar alone garners support from is happening,” and no less than 54% in any county be- 64% of Hoosiers because it would, in the words of the lieve “global warming will harm future generations.” This Americans for Carbon Dividends poll, “push other countries complementary data set came from a county-by-county to adopt similar policies by charging foreign imports in the survey conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change same way.” Communication. How this conversation will play out is yet to be Page 14 seen. But for the first time – perhaps ever – Republicans, man for Dan Coats, former U.S. senator and direc- driven by concrete polling and the voices of the next gen- tor of national intelligence. Currently he is a vice eration, are willing to throw some ideas on the table and president with Bose Public Affairs Group in India- have a debate. That’s progress. v napolis. He is also an Atlantic Council Millennium Fellow and author of the 2014 book, “The War on Pete Seat is a former White House spokesman for Millennials.” President George W. Bush and campaign spokes-

he needs in key states to win again. Pelosi had been right to caution last spring against After impeachment, rushing to impeach, with the certainty that it would lead to Senate acquittal and a presidential boast of being exoner- Trump reelect is up ated after a partisan attack. But that blatant Ukraine call By JACK COLWELL and other Trump conduct convinced House Democrats to SOUTH BEND — After impeachment and Iowa, impeach. Pelosi agreed, although she knew what would reelection of President Trump is more likely. If the election happen. were held next Tuesday, he would It happened. Impeachment did of course lead win again in the Electoral College. to the always certain acquittal by Senate Republicans and Impeachment has helped Trump the presidential boast of being exonerated after a partisan politically. He has climbed in ap- attack. Many Democrats expressed surprise that all of the proval ratings amid the proceed- Senate Republicans except one voted to acquit. Well, im- ings. The latest Gallup poll finds peachment is political, not a judicial process, not when all Trump’s approval rating at 49%, the “jurors” have vast prior knowledge and have expressed highest since he took office in opinions about the impeachment target. 2017. Democrats can be angry. They are. But they The debacle in Iowa shouldn’t be surprised at the always certain result. Re- Democratic caucus tabulating did publican senators were sure to go along with what a vast more than rob former South Bend majority of the Republican voters back home wanted, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of elec- demanded. tion night momentum that would have come if there had That Gallup poll found Trump’s approval rating been vote totals then to reveal his spectacular showing. among Republicans hit 94%, up six percentage points With no totals at all – not that night, not any until partial from early January and three points higher than his previ- results dribbled out late in the afternoon on the follow- ous best. Trump’s approval rating among Democrats sank ing day – the famous first-in-the-nation test with voters to 7%, a fall of three points. This shows an astounding brought jokes about Democrats not even able to add up nation-dividing 87% gap between Republican and Demo- vote totals. cratic approval. Laughter at the bungled process replaced seri- Solid Republican backing and an increase in ous analysis of the vote count. There was no count to approval among independents as well means Trump right analyze. The debacle enabled Trump to claim that the now would win again, perhaps more easily than in 2016 Democratic process was “rigged” and that Democrats in the Electoral College. That’s because huge Democratic shouldn’t be trusted with health care if they can’t even pluralities against him would come from states like Califor- count caucus goers. nia and New York and other Democratic bastions along the It was a good week for the president. Rise in coasts that Trump writes off, while he would have a solid the polls. Acquittal in the Senate. A Democratic debacle chance again to win the key battleground states in the in Iowa. Poking Democrats in the eye with a sharp stick middle. repeatedly in the State of the Union address. The election isn’t coming up Tuesday. It’s Nov. 3. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wasn’t pleased with Much will happen before then. Democrats have a chance. the speech. She kind of hinted at that by tearing up her Will they get their act together behind a solid contender? copy when the president finished his remarks. But Trump And will President Trump’s conduct convince that 94% of didn’t care about her reaction. He showed his disdain Republicans to stay with him or cause defections in key by declining to shake hands with Pelosi when he arrived places? v at the podium. He cared not at all what Democrats in Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune. Write to the House chamber thought. His remarks were aimed at him in care of The Tribune or by email at jcolwell@ pleasing his base and the expanding Republican support comcast.net. Page 15

where?” Owen wanted to know. “Because what we trade with the rest of the na- Low cost of living tion and the world is worth less than what Chicago has to starts with low wages trade,” I said. “But that’s a story for another time.” v Mr. Marcus is an economist. Reach him at mortonj- By MORTON MARCUS [email protected]. INDIANAPOLIS — Owen Greene lives a quiet life in Southwestern Indiana. He’s learned not to challenge the opinions of his neighbors. Yet, this past week he called me with a question: “Are wages lower in Indiana because our cost of living is lower than in the rest of America?” “No!” I said in my most controlled Economy is neither as manner. “Employers like to tell workers that’s the reason wages can be lower here than elsewhere, good or as bad as but that’s not the truth.” “You mean they’re lying?” politicians say it is Owen looked surprised. “They’re not lying, Owen,” By MICHAEL HICKS I said. “They just accept a popular MUNCIE — It is election season, so we face fiction, an easy story to believe.” several more months of claims about the U.S. economy. “But it makes sense,” Predictably, the economy is neither as good as the incum- Owen insisted. “Workers won’t bents profess it to be, nor bad as those running to unseat demand as much in wages, if the cost of living is low.” them assert. The real truth is somewhere in between. Of “Owen,” I said. “Think for a moment. Except in course, each side will be armed with data, but politicians very unusual circumstances, the boss tells you what the selectively forget to adjust for job pays. It’s rarely negotiated. You don’t like the offer, inflation or ignore seasonal ad- you think it’s too little, you take it or leave it.” justments that correct distortions “Yeah,” he agreed. “Workers are price takers. Con- in monthly or quarterly data. The sumers are price takers. We don’t bargain with Walmart.” economy is a complex affair, and “Exactly,” I now agreed with him. “Renters and each of us view it through our home buyers are price takers too, although there is often a own lens. This is my assessment ritual of negotiation in the latter case. as a professional economist who “How do you decide how much you’re willing to wants better policies from both pay in rent or for the home you’d like to buy?” I asked and parties. then answered. “You think about how much you can afford We are in the longest ex- out of what you make. Your wages are the limiting factor pansion in U.S. history, and em- on your housing costs.” ployment growth continues to do “Yeah, but ….” He tried to speak, but I went surprisingly well. Every healthy adult who wishes for a job on. “Listen, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that can find one. While wage gains have been modest, over housing is about a third of consumer expenditures. And the past year we have seen stronger growth, particularly housing prices vary more from place to place than the among the lowest-paid workers. Nationally, the composi- prices for beer and pizza. It’s mainly housing that gives us tion of job growth has been good. Only 2.5% of workers the differences in cost of living figures.” are involuntarily working part time. Job growth has been in “But,” he objected. “In Chicago, housing is more traditional full-time employment. Even with recent soften- expensive than in New Castle.” ing of labor markets, particularly in manufacturing, we live “Right,” I said. “The median rental in the Chicago in an enviable time to be a worker. Metro area is 80% higher than in New Castle and the There are many other good aspects to our cur- median mortgage cost is higher by 92%. Yet, the median rent economy. Much of what we don’t measure well in our income in Chicago is only 42% higher than in New Castle.” economy seems to be booming. Leisure is surely far less Owen shook his head. “Look,” I said. “If you don’t costly than in the past, and seemingly more productive. have the money, you can’t get the goodies, or you get For most demographic groups, lifestyles are healthier and less of the goodies. That means smaller apartments and lifespans longer than even a decade ago. There is signifi- houses in Chicago than in New Castle for the same expen- cant opportunity for human flourishing in what is unam- diture.” biguously the wealthiest economy in history. “And why are wages lower in Indiana than else- Household wealth is rising for families who’ve in- Page 16 vested in homes, or saved, and thus invested money in an about economic growth. Let me offer two examples. expanding economy. In this way, wealth is churned from In 1,000 urban counties, a young couple who saves Wall Street back to Main Street in a regular pattern. The up to purchase a home will see it build enormous wealth ubiquity of retirement accounts and stock back pensions over a decade. In 2,000 counties outside of fast-growing means that we are all capitalists now. cities, the same couple would see almost no real apprecia- This good news does not mean the incumbent tion in their home values over a decade. Economic diver- talking points are right, for two very important reasons. gence doesn’t just impact the affluent young couple, but The first is that the Trump economy is no better than the also those at the opposite end of the economy. Imagine a Obama economy, and in the most meaningful ways mod- young, single parent living with parents. In a rural com- estly worse. The second is that the good economic news is munity, childcare is absent, and a car is required to get to not equally distributed across our Republic. a job for an employer awash in high school dropouts. In a Comparing the last three years of the Obama large city, there is typically transportation, much thicker la- Administration with the first three of the Trump Adminis- bor markets and more abundant childcare options. Neither tration offers a good comparison. Annual GDP growth in situation is ideal, but one has many more opportunities the Trump years is at 2.52%, while it was 2.25% average than the other. for Mr. Obama. But, in terms of job growth, Mr. Obama’s In short, while there are many reasons to be last three years saw a full 1.5 million extra jobs created, optimistic about the American economy and tout its per- a roughly 20% better performance. While job growth was formance, there are also many deep weaknesses. In times solid in both administrations, overall economic growth past, candidates wouldn’t agree on the economy, but most has been unusually tepid. What makes our current affairs of their debate would be about policies to make it better. worse than the 2014-2016 period is that the U.S. is now That is because there used to be a time when there were engaged in unprecedented fiscal stimulus, through budget real disagreements about the future of economic policy. deficits, monetary policy, and farm bailouts. Today, we have one political party that is in the Mr. Trump’s presidency has seen the deficit grow midst of vigorous internal debate about the future of by $2,575,949,000,000 over three years, a full trillion economic policy. The other party has eliminated internal dollars more than the last three years of Mr. Obama’s debate and possesses no coherent economic policy. This presidency. Both the bailouts and deficits are bigger than means we risk several months of candidates arguing more anything we observed in the Obama years. We live in a about the past than the future. I view this as a form of time of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, and intellectual and moral torture. My only solace is that this yet eke out economic growth that is historically sluggish. being a republic, we citizens are only getting what we de- The bigger issue is that economic growth is serve. v unequally distributed across the nation. Large urban places enjoy fast growth, often twice the national rate of about Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Center 2.0%. In contrast, much of the country languishes. At the for Business and Economic Research and the George county level, the U.S. is in a surprising period of economic and Frances Ball distinguished professor of econom- divergence. The unequal geographic distribution of eco- ics in the Miller College of Business at Ball State nomic growth makes it difficult to share a perspective University.

New Hampshire, but also that the person who seemed throughout 2019 like the biggest obstacle to him win- Sanders becomes a ning the nomination -- Joe Biden -- sputtered to a pitiful fifth-place finish, failing to crack double digits. Sanders’ weak frontrunner other seeming top rival, Elizabeth Warren, is arguably in By KYLE KONDIK even worse shape than Biden: At least Biden can try to and J. MILES COLEMAN make last stands in more diverse Nevada and particularly CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – In the wake of his South Carolina, where he hopes that the state’s majority victory in the New Hampshire African-American electorate can primary, Bernie Sanders seemed resuscitate his flagging campaign. to some like an unstoppable Warren has no such redoubt: frontrunner. To others, he seemed Iowa and New Hampshire could or like a spent force. That there is should have been good states for evidence backing up both arguments is a testament to the her; she did OK in the former, and terribly in the latter. uncertainty of the Democratic race following the first-in- Meanwhile, Pete Buttigieg probably would the-nation primary. have won both Iowa – which he narrowly carried in terms The argument for Sanders is not only that he won of delegates over Sanders despite Sanders receiving more votes – and New Hampshire had Amy Klobuchar thrown Page 17 in the towel after her mediocre fifth-place finish in the from GOP nominating rules in 2016 that made it easier Hawkeye State. Instead, Klobuchar used a strong debate for plurality winners to accumulate delegates earlier in the performance Friday night as a springboard into a solid process. For instance, Trump followed up his New Hamp- third place in New Hampshire, finishing closer to Sanders shire win by taking 32% in South Carolina, but he won and Buttigieg in first and second than to Warren and Biden 100% of the state’s delegates while doing so. in fourth and fifth. The uniform Democratic rules, which require at Here again, Sanders benefits from this alignment least 15% support to be included in a proportional alloca- of rivals: While Sanders has not demonstrated widespread tion, can distribute the delegates much more evenly. Sand- appeal to African Americans -- a backbone demographic of ers tied with Buttigieg in delegates in New Hampshire, and the Democratic Party that has not really been heard from the upstart former South Bend, Indiana mayor actually yet -- Buttigieg and Klobuchar are significantly weaker leads the veteran senator by two in the overall delegate among black voters than Sanders is, at least right now. count (granted, there is a long time to go -- the two lead- Sanders was threatened by a candidate who could domi- off states, combined, awarded only about 1.5% of the nate the black vote against him. Biden might’ve been that total pledged delegates available). There is more below as candidate, and hypothetically still could be, but it seems we update our UVA Center for Politics/Decision Desk HQ likelier now that the black vote might splinter, which prob- delegate tracker. ably helps Sanders. Biden clearly took a hit in Iowa, and New Hamp- As Michigan State University political scientist shire only exacerbated his problems. National polling, Matt Grossmann argued Tuesday night, “Bernie won & where Biden has almost always led, has moved against both his main national competitor (Biden) & his ideological him, and Sanders has taken the top spot. Michael Bloom- faction competitor (Warren) lost badly. But field remains berg, powered by his eye-popping television advertising, too muddled for him to see full assault. All good for Ber- has seemed to benefit more from Biden’s fall. nie.” Friend of the Crystal Ball Chaz Nuttycombe noted Note, though, that the pro-Sanders argument we Wednesday morning that, over the last month, Bloomberg just made above largely focuses on the challenges of his is up 7.5 points in the FiveThirtyEight national polling aver- rivals, as opposed to his own performance. age, while Biden is down that same exact total, 7.5 points. While it’s unfair to Sanders to measure him by his The field is so fractured and fluid that it would be wrong to 60% vote share in a head-to-head race in New Hampshire suggest Bloomberg is siphoning all his newfound support against Hillary Clinton, his 26% plurality in a much larger from former Biden supporters, but it’s also not a total coin- field put him a few points behind his pre-election polling cidence, particularly as one notes the growth of Bloomberg average in New Hampshire, and this was less than half his among black voters in polling crosstabs while Biden slips share from four years ago. He turned in this weak perfor- among that same demographic. Honestly, it may be that mance even as Warren sank, meaning that Warren’s for- the current numbers are catching Biden only in the midst mer support probably split among several other candidates of an ongoing freefall. as opposed to flowing mainly to her colleague, Sanders, Politico’s Natasha Korecki, Marc Caputo, and on the leftward edge of the Democratic Senate caucus. Maya King reported a telling quote from Quentin James, So if Warren were to drop out, we can’t assume Sanders who runs a PAC that backs black candidates: “Black voters would disproportionately benefit. Sanders did great among are starting to leave him now. … A big reason lots of black younger voters and liberals, but not necessarily with other voters were with Biden is they thought he was the best kinds of voters. person to beat Trump. And they thought one reason for While turnout was up from 2016, the demograph- that is that he had the support of white voters. Now they ics of the turnout were not really favorable to Sanders, see he has done so poorly with white voters and he no calling into question his claims that he can expand the longer looks like the electability candidate.” Or, as Theo- electorate in his favor in both a primary and general elec- dore Johnson, an expert on black voting patterns, put it, tion setting. And, as Grossmann added at the end of the “For a bloc whose top priority is defeating the president, tweet quoted above, “media coverage does not seem likely electoral pragmatism necessarily rules the day.” to help him bounce or expand his coalition.” Black voters may have been attracted to Biden It makes some sense to compare this race out of pragmatism; could they move in sizable numbers to to the 2016 GOP contest, at least in the sense that both Bloomberg, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar out of that same kind featured large fields and a New Hampshire primary winner of pragmatism, rooted in a belief held by at least some who party elites didn’t really like (Donald Trump and now Democrats that Sanders is too left-wing to win a national Sanders). general election? Potentially. The possibility of a single Trump got 35% in New Hampshire four years ago, candidate winning a significant share of the black vote finishing about 20 points ahead of second-place finisher against Sanders has always seemed like a major threat to John Kasich. Sanders’ win was much more of a nail-biter, his nomination, and it remains a threat -- just a diminished and he only got 26% of the vote, a historically weak show- one thanks to the diminished standing of Biden. v ing for a Granite State primary winner. Trump benefited Page 18

Michael Gerson, Washington Post: At the 68th, Walter Shapiro, New Republic: For the moment, and perhaps last, National Prayer Breakfast, the main re- Biden is holding onto his African American support in the marks were made by the former president of the American February 29 South Carolina primary and leading in most Enterprise Institute (and Post columnist) Arthur C. Brooks, national polls. But those numbers may look different next who spoke on the themes of his wonderful 2019 week if Biden limps home in fourth or even fifth in book “Love Your Enemies.” President Trump then New Hampshire. In politics, universally known and prefaced his speech by saying: “Arthur, I don’t liked former vice presidents don’t win by losing know if I agree with you. But I don’t know if Ar- badly in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If not thur’s going to like what I’m going to say.” Biden, then who? That is the urgent question fac- It was a strange moment in U.S. religious history. ing Democrats frightened by the prospect of their The command to love your enemies, of course, came from party following a Pied Piper named Bernie Sanders. Espe- Jesus in the Sermon on the Mount. “Love your enemies, cially since Sanders in the debate still lacked good answers bless those that curse you, do good to them that hate to questions about his mixed record on gun control and you.” It might be expected for a president to express how his flirtation with the NRA in the 1990s. Mike Bloomberg difficult obeying such a mandate can be. Trump decided may prove to be the establishment’s savior if he can pull to dispute the command itself. And some in the crowd off a dramatic appearance as soon as the curtain rises for laughed. The purpose of Trump’s sermon at the Hil- the second act of the Democratic drama on Super Tues- ton was, in fact, to put his enemies on notice. Those who day. But the former Republican mayor of New York is even pursued impeachment were “very dishonest and corrupt less of a real Democrat than Sanders, who runs as an people.” “They know what they are doing is wrong,” he independent for the Senate. And at a moment when “bil- continued, “but they put themselves far ahead of our great lionaire” is the leading epithet in the Democratic lexicon, country.” Congressional Republicans, in contrast, had the does the party really want to nominate one of the richest wisdom and strength “to do what everyone knows was men in the world? All this brings us back to the other three right.” Trump proceeded to make a thinly veiled attack serious candidates on the ABC News debate stage — But- against Mitt Romney of Utah, the only Republican sena- tigieg, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar. Buttigieg did tor to vote for the president’s removal: “I don’t like people what he had to do Friday night, which was survive. Partly who use their faith as justification for doing what they because of his limited political résumé and partly because know is wrong.” And then a shot at House Speaker Nancy of his lack of discernible African American support, But- Pelosi (D-Calif.): “Nor do I like people who say, ‘I’ll pray for tigieg again faced tough questioning over his record as you,’ when I know that is not so.” What did Trump accom- South Bend mayor, especially about racial disparities in plish in his 26 minutes or so at the podium? sentences for drug crimes. Even though Buttigieg is run- First, the president again displayed a remarkable ning as the charisma candidate of 2020, he doesn’t inspire ability to corrupt, distort and discredit every institution he the same visible passions that Bill Clinton and Barack touches. The prayer breakfast was intended to foster per- Obama did at this point in their own races for the White sonal connections across party differences. Trump turned it House. At virtually every Obama rally in 2008, someone into a performative platform to express his rage and pride would shout from the bleachers in a crowded high-school — the negation of a Christian ethic. gymnasium, “We love you, Obama.” Mayor Pete seldom Second, Trump has again shown a talent for receives such enthusiastic greetings. v exposing the sad moral compromises of his followers, especially his evangelical Christian followers. Jerry Falwell Roger Kimball, Spectator USA: The truth is, Jr., Franklin Graham, Robert Jeffress and Eric Metaxas Pete Buttigieg is about as moderate as Bernie Sanders. He don’t have it easy after an event such as this one. These comes off as more reasonable than Bernie because he has evangelical Christian leaders will, of course, find some way a more soothing demeanor. (And he comes off as more to bless Trump’s sacrilege. But he makes their job ever reasonable than Elizabeth Warren because he does not harder and their moral surrender ever more obvious. sound like a screeching harridan whose hectoring voice is Third, Trump’s unholy outburst (and the White like a witch’s nails drawn across a blackboard.) He quotes House event that followed) shows we are reaching a very — and misquotes — scripture. He sounds reasonable, so dangerous moment in our national life. The president long as you ponder the timber of his voice and don’t pon- is seized by rage and resentment — not heard on some der the substance of what he says. But at the end of the scratchy Watergate tape, but in public, for all to see and day, this Ivy- and Oxbridge-educated ‘progressive veteran’ hear. He now feels unchecked and uncheckable. And he is a Gramscian radical. He is there with with Ralph ‘make- has a position of tremendous power. This is what hap- ’em-comfortable’ Northam on abortion, though he has pens when a sociopath gets away with something. He or gotten pretty deft at avoiding the issue. Abortion, in fact, she is not sobered but emboldened. It took mere hours seems to be the one issue on which he wants the govern- for Republican senators who predicted a wiser, chastened ment to stay out of our lives. About everything else, it’s all president to eat their words. The senators are, in part, government all the time. v responsible for the abuses of power to come.v Page 19

into the reversal, which led four career Mueller as his successor and support- Hill presides over prosecutors Tuesday to dramatically ed his mayoral campaign. But about withdraw from the case. Former fed- three hours after The Tribune pub- fetal remains burial eral prosecutors said the department lished a story online on his withhold-

appeared to have either botched its ing an endorsement, Mueller walked SOUTH BEND — Indiana’s oversight of the prosecution or aban- back the comments. By Wednesday attorney general joined more than 100 doned decades of independence night, he said he “enthusiastically” people Wednesday af- to help a friend of Trump’s. supported Buttigieg for president. ternoon for a ceremony Either way, they said, the Justice “It was really my intent to stay 100 at Southlawn Cemetery Department suffered a serious percent focused on South Bend as I to bury more than 2,400 blow to its reputation in with- was starting my new administration fetal remains found in drawing recommendations that and stay out of presidential politics,” the home of an abortion Stone, a longtime Republican op- he said. “So with that, I just wanted doctor (Parrott, South Bend Tribune). erative and self-proclaimed dirty trick- to clarify where my support lies...His Dr. Ulrich Klopfer, who died Sept. 3 ster, be sentenced to seven to nine service to our city and understanding at 79, performed the abortions from years in prison for obstructing a House cities like ours is an important trait for 2000 to 2002 at clinics in South Bend, investigation, witness tampering and our next president and would serve Gary and Fort Wayne. He performed lying to Congress. “It’s a disaster,” said our community well.” tens of thousands of abortions over Mary McCord, who spent two decades 40 years, mainly as the only abortion as a federal prosecutor and was acting provider in the three Indiana cities. Sen. Young backs assistant attorney general for national Most of the remains were found in the security in 2016 and 2017. “The de- War Powers Act garage of his Illinois home, with oth- partment has no credibility left.” Stone WASHINGTON — The Sen- ers found in one of his vehicles. “The is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 20. ate on Wednesday narrowly voted shocking discovery” of the remains Democrats will get their chance to to begin debate on a resolution that “was horrifying to anyone with normal question Atty. Gen. William Barr next would block President Donald Trump sensibilities,” Hill said at the ceremony. month. The House Judiciary Commit- from carrying out attacks on Iran (Roll “Regrettably, there is no shortage of tee said Wednesday that Barr, after a Call). All Democrats present plus eight depravity in our world today, including months-long standoff with the panel, Republicans (including Todd Young) due regard for the most vulnerable had agreed to testify March 31. voted, 51-45, in favor of beginning among us.” Hill, a Republican who is debate on the resolution from Virginia seeking re-election, made opening re- Mueller endorses Democrat Tim Kaine, which would re- marks at the ceremony before taking quire the immediate cessation of “hos- questions from reporters away from Mayor Pete tilities against the Islamic Republic of the burial site. He has said his office is Iran or any part of its government or investigating the case, but it remains SOUTH BEND — At midday military, unless explicitly authorized” unclear what could be under inves- Wednesday, Mayor James Mueller of- by Congress.Kaine’s resolution is tigation. A 2016 Indiana law, upheld fered a surprising answer when asked privileged under the 1973 War Powers by the U.S. Supreme Court in May, about endorsing Pete Buttigieg, his Act, which means he is able to force requires abortion providers to bury or childhood friend and former boss, for a debate and vote on it with only a cremate fetal remains, but it wasn’t in president. The answer: he didn’t know majority of votes, rather than the effect from 2000 to 2002. Asked what (Parrott, South Bend Tribune). Mueller more common 60-vote threshold for Klopfer was required to do with the told The Tribune there were a “num- legislative measures. “This resolution remains at the time of the abortions, ber of great candidates and I’m just is about Congress reclaiming its right- Hill replied, “The law was not clear.” waiting to see how things shake out ful role in decisions about war,” Kaine a little bit.” Mueller, who succeeded said Wednesday in floor remarks. DOJ roiled over Buttigieg as mayor in January, said he Stone sentencing had “looked favorably” on the can- Iowa Dem chair didacies of U.S. Sens. Kamala Harris resigns after fisasco WASHINGTON — Top Justice and Cory Booker, both of whom have Department officials came under fire dropped out of the race, and was DES MOINES, Iowa — Iowa Wednesday for jettisoning a recom- surprised they didn’t “get more trac- Democratic Chairman Troy Price an- mendation by career prosecutors that tion. This will become a more press- nounced his resignation Wednesday Roger Stone, a longtime confidant ing issue as we approach our state’s after a disastrous caucus process of President Trump, receive a stiff own primary in May, so we may take a beset by technical glitches led to a prison sentence (Los Angeles Times). closer look as we approach Indiana’s dayslong delay in reporting the re- Democrats called for investigations primary.” Buttigieg had hand-picked sults, inconsistencies in the numbers.