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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Bangladesh University of Dhaka Team: Basis Point

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CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Bangladesh University of Dhaka Team: Basis Point CFA Institute Research Challenge Hosted by CFA Society Bangladesh University of Dhaka Team: Basis Point University of Dhaka Student Research Telecommunication Sector, Telecommunication Industry Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) Grameenphone Date: 14 November, 2016 Current Market Price: BDT 279.00 (10/11/2016) Recommendation: BUY Ticker: DSE: GP Headquarter: GP House, Bashundhara, Dhaka Target Price: BDT 319 This report is published for educational We issue a BUY recommendation on Grameenphone Limited with a one year purposes. Only by students competing in the target price of BDT 318.98 using the Discounted Cash Flow analysis and a relative CFA Institute Research Challenge. valuation. We expect a total return of 20.8%, comprising of 14.3% of capital gain from its November 10, 2016 closing price of BDT 279.00 and a dividend yield of Table 1: Market Profile 6.4%. Market Profile (November 10, 2016) Grameenphone (DSE:GP) is currently the market leader in the telecommunication sector with a SIM market share of 43% and has the best Closing Price BDT. 279 network coverage, as measured by network sites and spectrum. With an 52 Week BDT.286.00/ BDT. estimated real SIM penetration of 51% (GP estimate) and data penetration of High/Low 224.50 around 28% (own estimate), the current state of demography and increasing Share 1,350.3 Million income within the economy, the growth opportunities in voice traffic is very Outstanding much there and that in data is huge. GP is also currently the least leveraged Market Cap. BDT. 379,434 Million operator in the telco industry with the last stated debt ratio of 21.8% in 2015 Dividend Yield 3.05% ( Current) and this is to not go no more than 25.2% as per our expectation for the next five Beta 1.20 years. GP’s timely investments and the ability to provide the best service to its customers has enabled it to establish a brand name that has enabled them to EV/Revenue 3.88x earn an ARPU as high as BDT 173.04 (as per 2016 own estimate) in one of the EV/EBITDA 7.16x lowest ARPU industries in the world. This has given GP the privilege to Sponsor/Director 90% consistently ensure an EBITDA margin of over 50%, which is not only significantly Public Holdings 2.48% higher than all its other competitors in the Bangladeshi telecommunication Valuation DCF Multiples industry but also the highest among all of Telenor’s 13 subsidiaries, across the Estimated Price BDT. BDT. world. We expect GP to continue with this trend in the near future as well. 302.66 343.50 With a current mobile internet market share of around 40%(GP estimate), the best coverage of 3G and 2G internet and being far ahead in investments in Weight 60% 40% infrastructure (current number of 3G sites is 10254), we expect GP to not only Target Price BDT. 318.98 ensure their share of the increasing pie of data segment, but to further increase Figure 1: Last 5 Year Stock Price Movement it. We expect that growth from the data segment to be GP’s lifeblood which is 400 going to ensure its overall success in the future. 381.9 The Robi-Airtel merger will lead to the industry being more oligopolistic and 350 consolidated, and with significant differences in market share, operators will get 279.1 more market bargaining power. GP will retain its market leadership even after 300 the merger and stand to only benefit from the merger. The efficiency of GP’s executive team and the maintenance of a strong corporate 214.7 250 213.3 governance has been pivotal to GP’s success so far and is likely to propel GP 189.6 further as well. 200 226.8 Basic Indicators of GP Basic Indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E 2020 E 2021 E 150 Revenue 102663 104754 113401 124294 135557 144089 154983 167182 143.8 139.9 Profit After Tax 19803 19707 22864 26980 30197 32919 36292 40101 100 EPS ( BDT) 14.7 14.6 16.9 20.0 22.4 24.4 26.9 29.7 EBITDA Margin 53.4% 53.3% 54.2% 55.9% 56.9% 57.8% 58.8% 59.7% (Revenue & PAT are in Millions of BDT) Price Earnings Ratios of GP Current P/E Forward P/E Implied P/E Source: DSE Archive 16.5 14.0 16.0 Figure 2: Cumulative Growth of GP RECENT NEWS GP Appointed Interim CEO (20/10/2016) –Petter-B-Furberg will act as interim 12.0% 10.4% CEO for GP effective from November 1st replacing Rajeev Sethi. Furberg is a 10.0% member of Telenor Group’s executive management team. 7.7% He was also CEO of Telenor Myanmar for 3 years before appointed as interim 8.0% 6.9% CEO of GP. 6.0% 5.4% Q3 Financial Result of GP has been published (19/10/2016) – Revenue is up by 11.2% year on year basis. For July to September EPS was Tk. 4.78 whereas it was 4.0% Tk. 3.07 for July to September, 2015. From January to September EPS was Tk. 12.70 compared to Tk. 10.83 in 2015 for the same period of time. Net Asset Value 2.0% (NAV) was Tk. 21.01 on 30th September, 2016 and NOCFPS was Tk. 24.35 for 0.0% January- September. CAGR in Sales CAGR in Profit BUSINESS DESCRIPTION 2012-2016 2017-2021 Grameenphone Ltd. founded in 1996 as private limited company is the largest mobile operator in Bangladesh in terms of subscriber base, coverage and Source: Team Calculation revenue. The company successfully listed on Dhaka Stock Exchange and Table 2: Valuation Summary Chittagong Stock Exchange on November 11, 2009. GP’s network is based on GSM standard and it provides service in 900 MHz, 1800 MHz and 2100 MHz Valuation Summary frequency band under the license granted by BTRC. Grameenphone now covers Valuation Date 10 November, 2016 almost 90% of the total land area of Bangladesh with its 10,068 network sites Methods Weight Price around the country. Telenor Communications AS and Grameen Telecom are the two main sponsor shareholders holding 90% of the total share. General public, DCF 60% BDT 302.66 foreign investors and other institutions hold 2.89%, 2.10% and 5.01% of the total EBITDA Multiple 20% BDT 321.87 share respectively (See Figure 4). According to Q3 2016, Grameenphone has 55 million active subscribers among which 22.9 million are internet user. SIM P/E Multiple 20% BDT 365.04 market share improved to 43.7%. Gross revenue growth is 11.2% and data One Year Target Price 31/12/17 BDT 318.98 revenue experienced a stunning 72.1% growth. Current Market Price 10/11/16 BDT 279.00 GP is expecting data revenue to grow in the future as still a big portion of total population is offline. Currently data service revenue and VAS consist almost 15% One Year Expected Capital Gain 14.3% of total revenue. The industry is a consolidated one with 4 companies (excluding One Year Expected Dividend Yield 6.4% Citycell and considering Robi-Airtel Merger) and Grameenphone is clearly the market leader. Real subscriber penetration rate is still low and data user rate is One Year Holding Period Yield 20.8% rising, so there is growth opportunity in the telecom sector. Source: Team Calculation Figure 3: GP NEWS CHART 450 GP NEWS CHART New Chairman of Aggreement 381.9 the Board Appointed 400 with Orascom CRAB Announced 350 Term Loan Credit Rating: AAA 300 Arrangement up to Tk. 11 bn 250 237.3 279.1 200 BDT IN PRICE 150 100 Director Foreign Sold Share 50 Currency Loan Sold 51% USD. 345 M 0 of GPIT Figure 4: Shareholder Composition Strategy of Grameenphone Grameenphone is the clear market leader in telecom sector. Its business 2.1% 2.48% 5.42% 34.2% strategies revolves around protecting its market share and expanding it. Main strategies of Grameenphone are: Protecting & Expending Market Share Grameenphone holds 43.7% of the total SIM market. GP fiercely protects its market share. To protect its market share and expanding it GP continuously offers new services and products, for example, GP was the first among the telecom companies to offer 24 hours customer care. Recently GP re-launched its mobile wallet service named GPAY. Company also launched MyGP, GP shop and 55.8% GP Music to improve customer experience to retain them. To hold market share Grameen Telecom GP is continuously enhancing its IT infrastructure. Investment to ensure 3G Telenor Communications AS coverage is expected to complete by 2016 and 3G sites are able to provide 4G General Public service with low incremental investment. Foreign Capturing the Growth of Data Usage Other Institutions Reported internet penetration rate is 39% by BTRC but actual number can be significantly low. Internet usage is growing at very high rate. 3G coverage Source: DSE expansion and decrease in Smartphone price are the reasons behind data usage growth. Currently 40% of the total mobile internet user use GP. Grameenphone Figure 5: GP Revenue (In Billions) is capturing the data market with its better internet services and infrastructure. In 2016 GP took major 3G expansion project. Current number of 3G site is 10254 BDT 180 and these 3G sites are also able to provide 4G service with low incremental BDT 160 investment. We can expect a further increase in internet usage with the BDT 140 introduction of 4G (See Figure 6: Revenue Composition of GP). BDT 120 Operational Efficiency Grameenphone is currently experiencing economies of scale in its infrastructure BDT 100 investment.
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