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Pandemic Restrictions Cause 10-Year Peak in Office Vacancy

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Pandemic Restrictions Cause 10-Year Peak in Office Vacancy Research & Forecast Report DOWNTOWN CHICAGO | OFFICE Fourth Quarter 2020 Pandemic Restrictions Cause 10-Year Peak in Office Vacancy Sandy McDonald Senior Director of Research | Chicago As of January 6th, 2021, the Chicago Metro occupancy (according to Market Indicators Kastle Systems) was 16.9%, up 4.9% from 11.9% at the end of 2020. CHICAGO CBD OFFICE Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2019 Rents continue to tick down as availability ticks up with tenants across all classes contracting space and/or adapting new working environments VACANCY RATE 15.0% 13.8% 12.3% for their employees. Overall activity in the market was slow for a third AVAILABILITY RATE 20.8% 19.3% 16.0% consecutive quarter, as vacancies reach 2010 post-recession levels. QUARTERLY NET ABSORPTION (SF) (1,129,559) 236,973 408,517 Vacancy & Absorption YTD NET ABSORPTION (SF) (1,275,593) (146,034) 1,597,365 » In the fourth quarter of 2020, Chicago saw overall and sublease RENTAL RATES (PSF) $41.91 $42.13 $42.95 vacancy rates rise to the highest levels since the 2009 recession. The overall Chicago CBD vacancy rate increased 120 basis points to SUBLEASE VACANCY (SF) 2,770,321 1,935,838 1,429,706 15 percent with sublease vacancy accounting for 1.8 percent of this SUBLEASE AVAILABLE (SF) 5,866,761 4,770,502 2,936,278 total. UNDER CONSTRUCTION (SF) 4,631,081 6,473,843 5,475,409 » As expected, net absorption hit a low point in the final quarter, NEW SUPPLY (SF) 2,384,402 0 2,500,000 totaling 1.13 million square feet of negative net absorption bringing the 2020 total to 1.28 million square feet—both of which are the highest negative net absorption levels since 2009. Submarket Vacancy Vacancy Rates Rates » Class A CBD vacancy peaked at 13.0 percent in the final quarter of 2018 - 2020 2020, increasing 100 basis points from 12.0 percent last quarter— 20% the highest quarterly Class A vacancy in seven years. However, the delivery of several new class A developments with substantial vacancy contributed to this vacancy peak. In addition, there was 15% significant vacancies recorded in class A existing space in both the Central and East Loop submarkets. » Class B vacancy increased by 180 basis points from 15.0 percent in 10% the third quarter to 16.8 percent. Central Loop and the West Loop areas had the most move-out activity from Class B assets (more than 645,000 square feet of net move-outs in just two submarkets). 5% Additionally, River North had high Class B negative net absorption 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2019 2018 2019 2019 2018 2019 2019 2018 2018 2018 2019 (101,408 square feet negative net). 2018 » 0% Class C vacancy increased to 17.2 percent in the fourth quarter—the Central Loop East Loop North Michigan Ave. River North West Loop Fulton Market highest rate in the history of the Chicago office marketplace. Total negative net absorption was primarily in direct space this quarter New Construction Deliveries with negative 200,338 square feet bringing the total to 724,039 2004New - 2020 Construction Deliveries negative square feet year-to-date. This is also the highest class C negative combined yearly absorption ever recorded. Further vacancy 4.5 4.2 4.0 increases may cause class C building owners to repurpose the use of 3.7 the buildings. However, demand for any alternative uses (residential, 3.5 dorm and hotel) is low. 3.0 2.7 Millions of Square Feet 2.5 » Current available sublease space increased 1.1 million square feet 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 quarter-over-quarter to a record high of 5.86 million square feet, 1.6 1.5 representing 3.8 percent of the market. This is the highest amount 1.1 0.9 1.0 of sublease space available ever recorded. Many of the sublease 0.5 0.7 0.5 spaces on the market are offering competitive terms, fully built-out 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 space, and short leases lengths that are appealing to businesses 0.0 2011 2017 2013 2019 2015 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2007 2009 2005 2008 2006 2004 uncertain of long-term steps in this pandemic business environment. 2020 Competing sublease space will be the biggest challenge in the coming quarters for landlords trying to fill vacancies in their buildings. 1 Research & Forecast Report | Fourth Quarter 2020 | Downtown Chicago / Office | Colliers International Rents Large Sublease Space Available TOTAL SUBLET » Total average CBD rental rates dropped $0.22 per square foot to ADDRESS CLASS MAX CONTIG SF SUBMARKET SF AVAILABLE $41.91 PSF Gross. Although significant, this is half the average 101 N Wacker Dr A 547,685 99,592 West Loop drop between 3Q20 and 2Q20, suggesting that the margin of rental 300 S Riverside Plz A 234,951 53,857 West Loop rate decreases may be diminishing incrementally. Rates are still 600 W Chicago Ave B 180,264 150,000 River North expected to continue to decrease over the next few quarters. 225 W Randolph St B 172,303 79,588 West Loop 1 N Dearborn St B 162,684 52,457 Central Loop » Class A asking rental rates currently average $48.01 (only a two- 167 N Green St A 144,454 50,744 Fulton Market/Near West Side cent drop quarter-over-quarter). However, these landlords are 540 W Madison St A 139,324 48,307 West Loop offering more robust concessions packages to lure tenants. 233 S Wacker Dr A 135,898 26,654 West Loop » Class B asking rental rates dropped $0.55 to $40.03 quarter-over- 200 N LaSalle St A 130,969 87,266 Central Loop quarter are expected to continue to decline as landlords try to 191 N Wacker Dr A 127,055 77,042 West Loop compete with an abundance of sublease space on the market. 1 E Wacker Dr B 125,746 14,878 East Loop 141 W Jackson Blvd B 120,506 37,776 Central Loop » Surprisingly, overall Class C asking rate averages increased $0.25 222 Merchandise Mart Plz A 117,195 48,939 River North quarter-over-quarter to $29.32, entirely due to West Loop asking 550 W Washington Blvd A 113,884 89,779 West Loop rates increasing by $0.49 while other submarkets reported minor 350 N Orleans St A 101,855 71,862 River North decreases. 433 W Van Buren St A 99,551 65,000 West Loop 1330 W Fulton St A 88,438 52,209 Fulton Market/Near West Side Large Blocks 303 E Wacker Dr A 87,175 31,276 East Loop 203 N LaSalle St A 84,163 44,601 Central Loop » Chicago’s CBD ended the fourth quarter with 42 large blocks 10 S Wacker Dr A 83,675 83,675 West Loop (100,00+ square feet) of contiguous space in 40 buildings, an 311 S Wacker Dr A 77,275 21,500 West Loop increase of six additional large blocks of space quarter-over- 333 W Ohio St B 75,715 75,715 River North quarter. There is now over 8.1 million square feet available comprised of large blocks of contiguous office space. Investment Sales Activity Investment2012 - 2020 Sales Activity » The largest block of contiguous space is at 135 S Lasalle for 35 672,618 square feet, space which Bank of America has now vacated for their move into their new namesake tower at 110 N Wacker Dr. 30 25 » For a full list of large blocks, please reference Appendix A. 20 Lease Transaction Highlights 15 Millions of Square Feet » New direct lease signing activity has significantly declined in the last 10 three quarters. Any activity in the fourth quarter has been primarily 5 dominated by sublease deals, renewals, and contractions of existing 0 space. 2017 2013 2019 2015 2018 2016 2014 2012 2020 YTD » Only one notable lease transaction was signed in the fourth quarter: CLASS A CLASS B CLASS C Industrious for 52,000 square feet at 233 S Wacker Drive. NetNet Absorption Absorption & Vacancy & Vacancy » Pritzker Military Museum signed a renewal in the East Loop at 104 S Overall CBD Michigan Ave for 40,500 square feet. 2,000,000 16.0% 1,402,389 1,597,365 1,479,383 1,500,000 14.0% Sale Transactions 1,207,122 12.0% 1,000,000 » Sales transactions have significantly decreased since the first quarter 782,408 10.0% of this year. There were four sale transactions that finalized in the 500,000 377,066 fourth quarter. The two most notable were: 8.0% 0 6.0% » JP Morgan Asset Management, jointly with Sterling Bay sold -500,000 110 N Carpenter St (1045 W Randolph St), the 575,018 square 4.0% feet McDonalds headquarters to Normandy Properties LLC for -1,000,000 2.0% (1,275,593) -1,500,000 0.0% $412,500,000 ($717/SF). 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 » Sterling Bay sold 1515 W. Webster Ave on Goose Island to Source: Costar; Colliers International Research Absorption Vacancy APEX Capital investment Corp. This is class A, 207,000 square AskingAsking Gross Gross Rental RentalRates Rates feet low rise for $110,250,000 ($533.00/SF). Overall CBD » There are two major office buildings in the West Loop with pending $50.00 50 sales: 225 W Randolph St and 200 W Jackson Blvd. $45.00 45 $40.00 40 Construction $35.00 35 » Eleven new office buildings over 25,000 square feet were delivered $30.00 30 in the CBD in 2020 for a total of 4.1 million square feet.
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