Infratil Update September 2011
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Energy Fuel Public Airports Distribution Transport WOULD WELLINGTON AIRPORT HAVE A LONGER RUNWAY if the CroWn hADn’t solD its shAreholDing? The relative merits of private and public ownership became a hot debating pricing. Or expressed differently, success has been based on investing in topic during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (Western market-capitalism facilities for which demand (and hence income) has justifi ed the capital Wellington - Asia Direct: Aircraft Owners In addition to the airlines noted in the table, September 2011, Issue No. 34 stumbled; Chinese state-capitalism maintained momentum) and will be to outlay. The Airport Flyer bus service which runs between the Hutt Valley other customers for the 1,418 B787 and A350 update the fore in the campaign leading into the New Zealand General Election as and Wellington Airport is a well patronised successful service. It is cheaper Aircraft AirNZ Qantas Emirates Singapore aircraft which are currently on order include the National Party seeks a mandate to sell Crown shares in a number of than a taxi or using a private car, but more expensive than regulated public 787 orders 8 50 - 20 many airlines which operate in Australasia; energy and transport businesses. transport services. It is unlikely that a public agency would have instituted Air China, AirAsiaX, ANA, Cathay, China this service as too many people would have derided the “high bus fare” A350 orders - - 70 20 Southern, Etihad, JAL, LAN, Qatar and Thai. In England you catch a private bus to a public hospital or a public university, Singapore drink water provided by a private company and post a letter via the private and a low fare would have necessitated a substantial subsidy. The 777-200LR - - 10 - Over the next decade hundreds of aircraft investment is successful because it is providing a service people want and capable of fl ying directly from Wellington to postal service, before fl ying out from a private airport. In the USA the bus, 777-200ER 8 - 6 46 water company, postal service and airport would all be publicly owned the fares they are willing to pay cover operating costs and provide a Asia will enter service with airlines which while the university and hospital are likely to be private. New Zealand’s satisfactory return on the $5 million spent buying new buses. operate in this region. water, post, hospital and university are likely to be public while the bus will Whether it is buses, power stations, airport terminals or petrol stations; the usually be private and the airport will be public (except in Auckland and equation for success is the same: provide a good service for which there is Wellington) and it’s a better than 50% prospect that the aircraft is also demand at a price which provides a satisfactory return. If the service is poor, The recent 96 metre extension and re-overlay of Wellington’s runway cost it is likely that long-haul links will be established over the next fi ve years, public. Each country’s mosaic of public and private ownership delivers a demand insuffi cient, prices too high or too low; investment will not be approximately $45 million. Whether additional metres are added will hopefully without the need for earthworks. In the meantime Wellington Wellington mixed bag and often different values and priorities mean that what is profi table and will be discouraged. Wellington Airport is an example of an depend on whether the new Boeing and Airbus aircraft deliver to their Airport and Wellington City Council are working together to explain the regarded as excellent in one country will be regarded as unacceptable in infrastructure business which is successfully applying the formula. Infratil promise. Given the growth in Wellington-Asia traffi c (via other airports) merits of such services to prospective airlines. another. US private hospitals provide world’s best care, but the US medical and Wellington City Council share the kudos as Council retains a 34% system costs about twice that of New Zealand’s public one and while most interest in the Airport and appoints two of its six directors. Over the last Recently both Boeing and Airbus have Americans have access to excellent health services, many do not do not get 13 years the two shareholders have directed and resourced management so A link with Singapore provides the strongest commercial case. In its own Because of Singapore’s relatively southern location back travel to other Boeing’s Forecast for Australasian Fleet Replacement & Growth updated their projections for air travel care of the calibre available to everyone in New Zealand. that the Airport’s investment in capacity and services has ensured that the right Singapore is a popular destination, and source of traffi c. Asian destinations is minimised. 1,000 growth over the next 20 years, and the region has good access to air services and the pricing of the Airport’s Generalisations on private and public ownership are slogans, but specifi c Singapore is the closest major destination in Asia so an aircraft needs to Singapore has excellent onward connections. Singapore Airlines alone Australasian Aircraft Fleet resulting demand for new aircraft. facilities has encouraged investment without discouraging use. examples allow informed conclusions about relative prices, service quality carry less fuel than if it were fl ying to, say Shanghai. Less fuel means there offers direct services to 57 Asian, 8 Middle East/Africa, 4 North American World-wide there are today approximately and the absorption of, and return on, capital. Where these metrics indicate A key aspect in the “public versus private” debate is the issue of is more capacity for commercial payload. and 14 European destinations. 15,000 commercial aircraft in service, with a service is expensive, cheap, poor, excellent, requiring a lot of capital, etc. wider-benefi t. In the instance of Wellington Airport this may entail asking 550 Growth about 450 being operated by Australian, it is possible to work back to why. Sometimes “why” will be an accident; if how it is operated helps or hinders the regional economy, or more 450 New Zealand and Pacifi c airlines. The global a brilliant or incompetent manager, a piece of good/bad fortune; but often specifi cally; has the Airport’s investment and pricing encouraged, Full Passenger Load Range from Wellington Analysis undertaken by Wellington Airport 420 Replacement fl eet is projected to more than double by it will refl ect governance and incentives. It is not ownership which decides facilitated or discouraged air services. In Wellington that debate has often indicates that it would be viable for a number Wellington Perth Bali Singapore Hong Kong Beijing 2030, as is the size of that operated by if a company is well managed, effi cient, low priced, etc. it is how the focused on long-haul services. Could the Airport do more to bring about of airlines to operate a Wellington-Singapore Australian and New Zealand airlines. B787-8 240 Seats service comprising 5 return fl ights a week company is managed and fi nanced; specifi cally the direction, monitoring, direct connections between The Capital and Asia, should a few more 30 incentivisation and resourcing of managers by the owners be they public hundred metres be added to the runway (at $300,000 to $400,000 per with a 275 seat aircraft; such as a Boeing B777-200LR 300 Seats 2010 2030 or private. metre)? This Update addresses that question and provides some context. 777-200, the new Boeing 787-9 or Airbus 350. B787-9 275 Seats Infratil has a position on the debate. It owns some businesses that were At present Wellington’s international links are mainly with Australia and • This service would carry over 100,000 previously state owned; Auckland and Wellington’s bus companies, the evolution of the Tasman aviation market over the last decade is a good A350 300 Seats passengers a year with better than 75% Boeing is projecting that Australasian Wellington’s Airport, 19 hydro power schemes around New Zealand; illustration of the nature of the air travel market and provides lessons for average loadings. Australasian Air Travel: 2011 and 2030 B777-300ER 330 Seats (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacifi c) although most of these businesses are unrecognisable from those once run how to economically bring about direct Asian links. The Airport’s Within Australasia Of that traffi c, around one third would air traffi c (as measured by passenger by central and local government. Infratil’s success as an owner of these development of its capacity over the last decade is also illustrative of its B767-300ER 230 Seats • be between Wellington and kilometres) will treble over the next businesses has come from the prioritisation of customer needs and fair willingness to invest in new and expanded services. A330-200 250 Seats To/from Southeast Asia How owners direct, incentivise and resource managers is Wellington Airport is owned by Infratil (66%) and Wellington Singapore, a third would connect to or 20 years (ie. rise by 200%). important in determining how those managers go about their work City Council (34%). from other airports in Asia, with the Wellington Perth Bali Singapore Hong Kong Beijing 5.5% per annum growth of air travel is and the outcomes which then arise. Does it matter if the owners are remainder connecting to or coming To/from China It has a track record of investing in its facilities and working to double the region’s projected economic the state or individuals? from European services. enhance Wellington’s air services. growth rate of 2.8% per annum. To/from North America Infratil has an interest in the “privatisation” debate.