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EAST GIPPSLAND REGIONAL STUDY FINAL REPORT
,,.. ... 11 711. II • 3099 TOWN & COUNTRY [llSJ c; 456 GIP:V PLANNING BOARD ~ Draft •
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IM&m MPE LIBRARY MINISTRY FOR PONNINt!· • ~0 ENV!~1(Wiivi':-NT UBRARY 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 M0004104
TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING BOARD
.EAST GIPPSLAND REGIONAL STUDY
FINAL REPORT
. . . . . TOWARDS STRATEGIC PoLICIES AND PLANS FOR EAST GIPPSLAND
DISCUSSION DRAFT
. August 1978
711.3099 4580850 456 GIP:V East Gippsland regional Draft study : final report : towards strategic policies and plans for East Gippsland : discussion draft ....
Table of Contents
Chapter·· Page
Introduction 1
1 · The Development of Strategic Planning 3 in East Gippsland
2 l'opulation, Economic Activity· 8 Basic Infrastructure
3 The Future of East Gippsland -
Principal Strategic Planning Issues 20
4 Main Features of a Strategy Plan
for East Gippsland 29
5 Recommended Policies and Progr8.mm.es. 35
6 Next Steps in Strategic Planning .in· East Gippsland 48
·, .· ··.·
PAGE
Table 1 Average Annual Rates of Population GrO.wth in Victoria Non ... Metropolitan Regions, 1961 - 1976 9
. . Table 2 Contribution of Natural Increase and Mi~ration to Population Change in East Gippsland.,·1961.:.·1966, 1966 - 1971 10
Table 3 · Workforce ·by Industry· by Sex in the· East Gippsland Region at ·30th June, 1961, 1966, 1971 12
Table 4 Mill Log Output in East Gippsland Region and Victoria 1~66 - 67 · to 1976 ·- 77 14
• . . Table. 5. Number .o-f Establ:i..·shments and Employment i~ ~anufacturing by Indtistry Group, East Gippsland Region·I968 - 69 to 1974 - 75 15
Table 6 Alternative Estimates of Population iri East Gippsland 1981, 1986. 34
Table 6 Sunmia.ry of Recommended Planning Strategy for East Gippsland 45 ., Figure 1 Framework of Planning in Victoria 4
Figure 2 - Model.of the Regional Planning Process in East Gippsland 7
Figure 3 - Victorian Regions Population and Populat.ion Density - 30th June 1977 8
Figure 4 - J;opulation Change.in Municipalities of East Gip~sland 1961 ._ 1976 8
Figtire 5 Urban/Rural. Distribution of Pop1,llation in East Gippsland 1961 - 1976 8
Figure 6 Population of Small Towns in East Gippsiand, 1961. - 1976 10 ·.. ·,
Figure 7 Sheep, ·lambs and Beef Cattle in East Gl.ppsla.rid, 1965 - 1976 11
Figure 8 Number of Completed Dwellings by Shire 1970 1977 15
Figure 9 Unemp~oyment in East Gippsland Jan 1972 April.1978 . 16
Figure 10 ·- Majo.r Features of Transport Network 17
Figure 11 - Mean Apnual Flows of Major Rivers in East Gippsland .· 17
Figure 12 - Ro.om Occupancy Rates in. Tourist Accommodation Establishments in Selected Regions of Victoria July 1976 - June 1977 23
Figure 13 - Areas of Reserved Forest, Cro'Wn Land and National Parks in East Gippsland 24
Figure 14 - Number of tots Created by Subdivision 197o' - 1977 in East Gippsl.and 25
·Figure 15. - Conununi ty Service's in the East Gippsland Regi()n · 28
•' 1 INTRODUCTION.
This Report is designed to provide the basis for the preparation of strategic -~ policies and plans for the future of East Gippsland. · l:t constitutes the Final Report on the East Gippsland Regional Study, undertaken over the past two years by the Town and Country Planning Board in conjunction with the East Gippsland Regional Planning Committee.
The Report analyses the way in which trends at the national, state and regional level seem likely to affect East Gippsland in the period up to 1986 and assesses the implications of potential changes in the demographic, economic and social structure of the.Region for a range of Government policies and programmes affecting the Region.
Although the Regional Study and this Final Report currently have no formal . . role in the stat~tory planning process in East Gippsland, the Board believes that the policies.and programmes outlined in the Report provide a coherent
basis for the in.tegrati~n and co-ordination of planning activity by State Governm.ent agencies and municipalities in the Regiori •. The adoption of the Report by Government. would also provide any future Regional Planning Authority • in East Gippsland with a sound policy framework within which it could prepare a. strategy plan for the Region. ·
'rhe Final Report is divided into Gix Chapters, the scope of each of which is as follows:.:..
Chapter 1: Development of Strategic Planning inEast Gippsland Describes the evolution of the strategic planning process in East Gippsland, its relationship .to the State strategic planning framework and the contribution . . . . which the regional study makes to the process.
Chapter 2: Population, Economic Activity and Infrastructure Analyses the influence which demographic and economic ~hange and the· availability of basic infrastructure has on the pattern.of settlement, socio-economic activity and resolirce use in East Gippsland.
Chapter 3: The Future of East Gippsland - Major Strategic Planning Issues Based on an analysis of possible changes in economic activity and resource use in East Gippsland in the next· ten years, Chapter 3 identifies the principal , issues in respect .Qf which strategic plans and policies will be required in the 2 ' Region in that time.
\. Chapter 4: Main Features of a Strategy Plan for East Gippsland Discusses the role and scope of a future strategy plan for East Gippsland an9- outlines the major goals to be pursued in suc_h a plan, having regard to the wider state planning framework and the major pl~ing issues confronting the Region.
Chapter 5: · · Recommended Policies and Programmes . Recommends the major policies and programmes required in individual spheres of activity to realise the suggested strategic planning goals for East Gippsland.
Chapter 6: Next Steps in Strategic Plarining in Eas:t Gippsland Outlines the follow-up action re.quired to. develop, refine and implement the policies and .strategies for East Gippsland recommended in the Report •
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3
CHAPTER 1 THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATEGIC PLANNING IN EAST GIPPSLA.ND
1.1 NATURE OF STRATEGIC PLANNING Most Government agencies and Municipal Councils are engaged in some fonn of planning. A water trust, for example, anticipating growth in de~nd for water as a result of the forecast. establishment of new industry'in its area, may decide to construct· a new water storage facility to meet the needs of that industry; the·Country Roads Board or a.Municipal council may similarly plan for the upgrading of
a Stat~ Highway or rural road on the basis of.expected growth of traffic;· the Education Department, anticipating the growth of school age popcl~tion in an area, plans to construct new schools to meet the ·needs of the children who will be resident there.
Strategic planning differs from pla.nriing for individual services, in that
(a) The principal. aim of strategic planning is.to facilitate the effective co-ordination and integration of the activities and decisions of planning agencies, with a view to ensuring that they are. consistent with each other;
(b) Strategic planning thus :focusses on the overall :framework within which individual agencies make planning decisions, and on the
~mpact which activities and decisions in particular sectors (e.g. transport or recreatiort) may have on other sectors; . . . (c) A.particular .concern of strategic planning is the determination' of priorities for action and resource allocation between the individual sectors of activity.
At the regional level, strategic planning differs from planning under taken by murticipaiities, in that it focusses on those changes whose . . . I . . . . ' nature and/or size is such that their effects extend beyond the boundaries of one municipality and are thus of regional significance. Planning for these. changes requires co..;.operative action by local councils (often in conjunction with one or more State Government authorities).
L 2 LEGISLATIVE / ADMINISTRATIVE BASIS OF STRATEGIC PLANNING Amendments to the Town and Country Planning Act· in 1968 provided for the development of a three tiered approach to planning in Victoria. Strategic Planning at the State level was to be effected through the preparation of Statements of Planning Policy, and through a State Planning Council 4
(comprising the permanent heads of the 12 Government agencies having a major involvement in land and resource use planning) whose function it was to integrate the planning activities of individual agencies to ensure a consistent and co-ordinated approach. At the regional level, the 1968 Act provided for the establishment of Regional.Planning Authorities for the purj>ose of facilitating co-operative action by municipalities on regional planning problems.
The :.iystem e!Jta.bli:.ihed by the 19fJIJ Act hao been further refined in recent years, in response to a variety of social, political and administrative factors. Firstly, in recognition of the relationship between.planning decisions in all sectors of Government activity, the State Planning Council was replaced in 1975 by the State Co-ordination Council which comprises the permanent heads of State Government Departments and agencies. Secondly, the Minister for Planning, Mr G P Hayes, MP has indicated that he intends to introduce into Parliament legislation designed to clarify the respective roles of regional planning authorities and municipalities in the planning process. This.legislation is to be based on the Upper Yarra Valley and Dandenong Ranges Authority Act.1976 which charges. the.Authority with co-ordinating the activities of municipalities and State.Government agencies in its Region to enstire that all works and undertakings of thos.e Authorities and other developments of regional significance are integrated into and consiste~t with a strategic plan for the Region. It thus emphasises the ~trategic co~ordinating fUnction of planning at the regional level, as distinct from the local planning powers e.xercised by municipalities.
Moreover, in the past ten years, most State Government agencies have adopted or, extended the use of a regional approach.to the planning and provision of their services (e.g. in the fields Qf induatrial development, social welfare, health and tourism). Further~ in response to community demands ·for increased involvement in the planning of programmes, consul tative arrangements have been developed in a variety of sectors (e.g. transport, family and community services). Most of.these processes have ba~is. The Act estabiishing .the State Co-ordination been set up on a regional . . . . Council pr.ovided for the setting up of regional co-ordinating .groups to complement and strengthen these co-ordination arrangements in individual spheres of a·ctivi ty.
As illustrated in Figure 1, the region occupies.a key role in the evolving framework for the planning of many Governmerit activities in Victoria. ..
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This widespread use of a regional basis for so many purposes recognizes that such an approach provides the most effective way of developing policies and programmes appropriate to the different needs and circumstances I of diverse parts of the State.
1.3 THE EAST GIPPSLAND REGIONAL PLANNING COMMITTEE In May 1975, recognizing the benefits which .couid accrue from the develop.. ment :of.. a strategic approach to planning ·in· East Gippsland,. the municip.. alities of the Region formed the East Gippsland Regional Planning Committee as a prel,iminary step towards the establishment of a Regional Planning
Authority~ In recognition of the input which State Government agencies make to effective strategic planning, the Committee invited agencies in the Region to participate in its deliberations.and by June 1978, sixteen agencies had accepted observer status on the C.ommi ttee.
In J~y 1975 the Cammi ttee, produced an Interim Regi.onal Planning Statement, which was.described as the Committee's "first thoughts" on plei.nning issues and problems in East Gippsland. That statement suggested the need for further .studies of the region's planning problems· to be undertaken before .a regional' strategy plan for the Region could be. prepared. In July 1976 the Committee agreed that these studies should be incorporated into the Board's East Gippsland Regional Study.
1.4 AIMS, SCOPE AND.ORGANISATION OF EAST GIPPSLAND REGIONAL STUDY Aspects of East Gippsland's future analysed during the course of the study included demographic and economic change, the availability of basic in!rastructure (transport and communication, water supply, sewerage and drB:inag.e), accessibility to community serviqes, the impact of tourism .and land and resource use conflicts (e.g. rural.subdivision) •. ·
The aims-of the study were:- (i) .to determine East Gippsla.nd' s role in the future of Victoria;··
(ii) to provide the basis for the preparatiop of regional policies and plans in East Gippsland;
(iii) to provide the basis for advising Government authorities on the appropriate policies to be applied in the region; and
(iv) to develop a framework within which co-operation between the various Commonwealth, State, Local Government and Regional bodies involved in the planning, administration and development of East Gippsla.nd might be advanced •. 6 •
Most of the study was undertaken by the Board's staff, using the expert assistance of State Government agencies and municipalities in particular subject matter areas. The results of the study were reported progressively in a series of Working Papers issued by the ·Board during 1977 . (as listed in Appendix A).· . The Committee assisted the.Boarq by performing an advisory consultative and review role throughqut the stUdy and by undertaking special studies . . of rural land use and historical features in East Gippsland.. (The Committee's report orirural land use has recently been published separately). In addition, the Board entered into joint a.zTangements with several Government agencies to undertake studies of mutual interest, as follows:- . . (a) the Board and the Gippsland Regional Offi.c.e of the Education Department combined in November 1976 to undertake. a comprehensive survey of the post school intentions Of secondary and technical school students.in East and Central Qippsland. Processing of the results of this survey was ~erformed for the Board by the Commonwealth Department of Environment, Housing and Community Development;
(b) . the Board contributed $4,000 to assist the Department of State Development and the Forests Commission.of Victoria in conducting a comprehensive economic study of the whole of East Gippsland;
(c) at the Board's request, the Commonwealth Department of Environment, Housing and Community Development undertook a special study of the level and structure: of unemployment in the East Gippsland Region. ·
Throughout .the study the Board has enjoyed the. co-operation and assistance . . . . of numerous State Government agencies and municipalities in East Gippsland. · The Board wishes to acknowledge the .contribution made to the study PY those authorities. Particular mention should be made of the Gippsland Regional Studies Liaison Committee (comprising representatives of the Departments of Agriculture, Minerals and Energy and Public Works . (Ports and Harbours Divi~ion) and State Development, the Ministries of . Conservation and Transport, Forests Commission, State Electricity Commission; State Rivers and Water Supply Commission and the Australian Bureau of Statistics) which assisted in the exchange of information and data relating to East Gippsland. 7
L ~ ROLf~ 01!1. m;oroNAL :j'r1JDY IN STRATEGIC PLANNING PB.OCESS . . . The Interim Regional Planning Statement wae the first major etep in the strategic· planning process in East Gippsland~ ·· Since then, the Regional Planning Committee has undertaken a num,ber of.investigations designed to develop and refine the initial policies set out in the Interim Statement. Other Government agencies and municipalities have likewise undertaken studies and prepared or further developed policies relevant to the issues covered in the Statement. The Regional Study has also consid~ erably extended the analytical arid data base relevant to strategic planning i:p th.e Region.
It is thus timely to re-evaluate the strategies and policies set out This is so for three in the Interim Regional Planning. Statement. . · reasons: ....
(i) to ensure that previously developed strategic policies and plans respond to changing needs and circumstances;
(ii) to ensure that more detailed policies an4 plans in individual sectors are effectively integrated with those being pursued or developed elsewhere;·.· '
(iii) to· indicate the direction which :f'uture detailed policy investigation and development should take.
As illustrated by Figure 2, this progressive development and refinement . of plans and policies is an integral and important part of the strategic planning process in East Gippsland. A major role of this Final Report on the East Gippsland Regional Study is to review and further develop the strategies and policies set out in the Interim Regional Planning Statement, .. in the light of the inforn:ation assembled since that document was prepared. In addition the Final Report is designed to indicate the additional policies which will need to be devised or refined before a comprehensive and effective regional strategy.plan can be prepared.
The Report thus constitutes an important next.is between· the generalised eval uation of East Gippsland's plannirig problems contained in the Interim Regional Planning Statement and the fully formulated policies which will need to be incorporated into a Regional Strategy Plan. FIGURE 2: f()OEL OF THE REGIONAL PLANNING PROCESS
.STAGE .1 STAGE 2 STAGE·3 ·.. WORK. IN· WORK IN .PROGREss· PROGRESS
INTERIM POLICY PAPERS
REGIONAL REGIONAL INVESTIGATION STRATEGY PLAN
GOVERNMENT AGENCY WORK
1975 1978 8
CHAPI'ER 2 - POPULATION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, BASIC INFRASTRUCTURE
2.1 POPULATION AND SETTLEMENT With 54,320 residents. at 30 June 1977, in an area of 28,790 square kilometres, the East Gippsland Region has the lowest popUJ.ation and is amongst the least densely settled of Victoria's Regions. Only the Wimmera Region ie more sparsely populated than East Gippeland, whose pop~lation density (1.9 persona per square· kilometre) ie half that of th.a North. Eastern and South Western Regions; and less than a fifth of that of the adjacent Central Gippeland Region (See Figl.lre 3).
Within Eaet.Gippsland, settlement is concentrated on the coastal pl.a.in in the western half of the Region. In 1976, more than 80% of the Region's residents lived Within a 40 kilometres radius of the towns
of Sale (containing 122 111 persons), Bairnsdale (9,130) and Maffra (383.6). This area incorporates the Gippsland Lakes sub-region containing tl:ie rapidly growing centres of Lakes Entrance, Paynesville and Metung, and the towns of Heyfield and Stratford.
The mountainous topography of much of the Region hae inhibited settlement, with the result that the area north and east of.a line running throughout Orboet, Bruthen and ·the Western boundary of Omeo shire contains 16% of the Region's population in an area of 18,239 square kilometres (63% of its total land area). Thie part of the region contains a number of small towns (Cann River, Bonang, Buchan, Gelantipy, Swifts Creek, Omeo) located on the highways built along the river valleys which dissect the mountains in a north-south direction.
Demographic trends in East Gippsland in the 1960's and 1970's have further concentrated popUJ.ation within the Region. Whilst East Gippsland as a whole has maintained a positive rate of popUJ.ation. growth since 1961, in contrast.· to the situation in many other non-metropolitan regions (see Table 1), many parts of East Gippsland (Avo:h and Omeo Shires and the rural parts of Maffra arid Orbost Shires) have sufferred declines in population. Population growth in the Region since 1961 has been concentrated in Sale and Bairnsdale,in the area around the Gippsland Lakes (particularly the towns of Lakes Entrance, Paynesville and Meturig).,and in isolated settlements such as Mallacoota (see Figure 4). The proportion of the I . Region's population living in Sale, Bairnsdale, Lakes Entrance, Paynesville and Metung has increased from 37.4% in 1961 to 49.4% in 1976 (see Figure 5). Correspondingly the proportion of the popµ.lation living in rural areas of ..
FIGURE 3: VICTORIAN REGIONS, POPULATION ANO POPULATION DENSITY, 30TH JUNE 1977
NORTHERN MALLEE 71440 (2.0) . SCALE 0 50 100 . kilometres
'I I WIMMERA LODDON I 56190 ( 1 ~6). NORTH EASTERN I. -CAMPASPE . GOULBUAN 75420 (4.1) . 141880 (6·5) ~.. ~ 125590 (5.4)...... ' ...... EAST GIPPSLANO ' . 54320 (1.8)
SOUTH ·WESTERN 99100 "4.1) Cf;NTRAL Population 30/6/77 GIPPSLAND ( ) Population density per 122000 (10) square kilometre \ -0 -0 0 0 . C"O G'>"O ·. ~ c: ., c: 0--' __, '11 0--' ~. '11 . ::s.... C'+.... C'+ C'+ ~ .... ~o ::s 0::s
I ...... N .. I I ...... 0 I (J"1 N. N· (J"1 ....., ' 0 N· (11 -..;,I 0 0 ....., 0 U'1 (J"1 0 (J"1 0 . (J"1 0 en 0 0 U'I 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 O• 0 0 .0 i> ·,Town of Bairnsdale I i City of Sale Shire of Bairnsdale Shire of Avon.· Shire of Maffra "'Tl G'> -c ::::0 Shire of Omeo l'T'I Shire of Orbost
Shire of Tambo -0 0 "'tJ c Town of Bairnsdale r )> City of Sale · . -4 0 :z- Shire of Bairnsdale I I ...... I . I \0 n :c I I °'I . )> Shire of Avon I °'...... :z I \0 i- I I ....., ' m I ...... l'T'I Shire of Maffra I (,/') I I .1 Shi re of Omeo . I I :z- . I I l'T'I I I. )> Shire of Orbost I I (,/') I I -4 Shire of Tambo· I I G'> . --0 -0 Town of Bairnsdale (,/'). r )> City of Sale :z c Shire of Bairnsdal~ 3: c I ...... :z Shire of Avon . I \0 ...... , . n ...... - Shire of Maffra I --0 .:(\ii\) : ...... )> I .....,\0 r- O'I Shire of Omeo J -4 I - fT1 Shire of Orbost I -(,/') I Shire of Tambo FIGURE 5: URBAN/RURAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION IN EAST GIPPSLAND 1961-1976
% OF TOTAL POPULATION.
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50% tli!il: (i1ci1i·1.11'1\ I.I I I1·11·1 I Ill! I II I·I II 111111·1111-1~ .Ill I-~1-~111i1-·=i 11· =. l_ =ll~~"..»1 .11=.111. :. :·:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:.:. ~·:·; ·;•.•.•. ' .· ...... ·.·.·•·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.· .· .· .· .·.·.· .· .... ·.· ...... ·. ·.·.· .·.·.·.·.· .".":,.~ .. ·...... Metung, ·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.···"''•.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.·.· .· .· .· .·.· .· .· .·.· .· .· .· .· .· .· ... ·.·.·.·~· ...... ·.·...... ' Lakes Entrance, ::: :: :: :: : : :: :: : : : : : : : : : :: :: : : : : : : : ::: :,.;:;:;.:. ;~ ••.•...•...... •...... •...... •...· Paynesville ·.·.·.·.·.·.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•.•,. e e •• e • e e e e e e •• e e •••• e e e e e e • e •• e e a e •• e e • e • I 40% .·:·:·:·:·:·:·::·;·;·. t:: .· .·. ·::.· ..: .·.· .· .· .·: .·: .· .· .·: .· .· .·. ·... :::, .• ·.,· .:.:-~- ·• ·.~:-:-:-::.:.:.", -~····...... ~ ...... ' ...... •.. _., ·-·································· . .... • ...•...... :::: ...... :,. ·•.•. . -.;:·:·:·:•:'!:•:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:·:· ...... • / ...... ·.························~·····················
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1961 1966 1971 9
TABLE l . . . AVERAGE ANNUAL RATES OF POPULATION GROWTH IN VICTORIA NON-METROPOLITAN REGIONS, 1961: - 1976
1961-1966 1966-1971 1971-1976 Region . %p.a. % p.Ei.~ % p.a.
Barwon 2.3 1.6- . 2.3 South West 0.6 - *·· .· 0.6 Central Highlands 0.8 o.o 1.6 Wimmera 0.6 * 0.4 Northern Mallee 0.6 * 1.0 Loddon-Campa,epe 0.4 0.2 1.9 Goulbum . 1.6 0.4. l."2
North East 0~4 0.2 2.1 _East Gippsland · 0.4 1.2 L9 Central Gippsland 0.8 .: * 0.6
TOTAL YICTOR!A 1.9 i.7 1.4
*.Indicates population decline during period.
Source: Calculated froni data contained in A.B.S. "Analysis -of Population . . . . in Urban Centres and Rural Areas by Plannin~ Regions and Sub- Regions of Victoria" and in A.B.S. "Estimate.s of Population in Local Government Areas, 30th June,- 1916". 10 the Region.has declined from 44.6% in 1961 to 35.2% in 1976. ·With the ex ception of centres along the coast (Mallacoota, Metung; Marlo), most of th~ smaller towns in the Region have slowly declined in population (see Figure 5) •.
The contribution of natural increase and migration to population change in East Gippsland has varied dra.n:iatically in the last ten to fifteen years. The contribution of naturai increase de.clined over that time from 3481 persons in 1961-1966, to 2939 persons inl966-1971 and 2674 persons in 1971-1976 (see Table 2). Migration on the other hand has changed from being negative in the period up to 1971 to contributing 40% 9f total population increase in the Region between 1971 and 1976. Although precise estimates are unavailable, it appears that migration to the region in the 1971-1976 period comprised primarily young people aged 20-29 and their offspring and persons aged 45 years and over •. More than 40% of the growth in permane~t population in the. Gippsland Lakes area between 1971 and 1976 was in the age group 50 years and over reflecting the growing importance of the area as a retirement centre, particularly for Melbourne residents.
The resuit of these migration trends has been an important change in the age structure of· the region's population. For example persons aged 65 years and over have increas~d from 7.9% of the.region's population in 1966 to 8.2% in 1971 and 9.5% in 1976. ·By way of contrast, persons aged 0-19 years comprised 42~7% of the total population in 1966, compared with 41.2% in 1971 and 38.4% in 1976.
TABLE 2 - .CONTRIBUTION OF NATURAL INCREASE AND MIGRATION TO POPULATION CHANGE IN EAST GIPPSLAND. J,961. - 1966, 1966 - 1971, 1971 - 1976
Period Tot~l Population Natural Apparent Net Increase Increase Migration 1961 - 1966 885 3481 - 2596 1966 1971 '2418 2939. 521 1971 - 1976 4420 2674 + 1746 Source: Calculated from data supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics·. FIGURE 6: POPULATION OF SMALL TOWNS IN EAST GIPPSLAND 1961-1976
•
·Stratford 800 ...... :;.:-t~ . ····· :.~:;:.;; ·... ~::··~::• I •• &1~ ····... 700 •• •• •• •• •• •• •• •• 600 • •• •• Mallacoota •• Bruthen • •••••••••••••••••••••
400 ··: .. • • • • • • )~. :;·.:·. . •••• •• Omeo . . • ~/· 0 6 0 & • . ••• :::>: • i 0 0 0 0 •• Cann Rher ::::; :.: ...... ·.·:.· 300 Me tung .Swifts Creek Lindenow
200
100
1966 . 1971 1976 11
2.2 MCONOMIC ACTIVITY For most of .the twentieth century the major form of economic activity.in East Gippsland has been the grazing of pastures for the raising of sheep and beef cattle. Vegetable growing (near Bairnsdale and on the Mitchell and SnoWyR:i.ver Flats), dairying (in those areas and in .the .Macalister Irrigati~n-tistrict near Ma.ffra and Sale) and fishing (particularly at Lakes Entrance) have also been: important.··
The forestry industry which expanded rapidly in the Region from the 1940'8 constituted the first of a series of major resource based indus tries which significantly altered the structure of the Region's econom;y. By the early 1970's, East Gippsland produced around 40% of Victoria's output of sawn hardwood timber and the proportion of East Gippsland's workforce engaged in forestry and associated. sawmilling activities was higher than in any other region of Victoria. · By that time· also, the waters offshore from East Gippsland were prod~cing nearly 90% of Australia's oil and half of its natural gas as a result of the development of nine commercial oil and gas fields from the early 1960's. These developments coincided with an upsurge in tourist and recreation activity in the Region so that by 1973/74motels, hotels,·and guest houses in the East Gippsland Region contained the second highest number of guest rooms and bed 'spaces of any region in Victoria outside the Port Philip District. In the.same year tJ:ie number of caravan sites and the gross takings of caravan parks in the East Gippsland Region exceeded those of parks in any . . . other region of Victoria outsi.de the Port Philip District.
The development· of these new industries has been critical in preserving . . . employment growth in East: Gippsland at ·a time when, as shown in Table 3, employment in the:industries which comprisedi.ts traditional economic base (especially agriculture, dairying and timber processing) has been declining.· However, the impact of many of the new· activities has often been iocalised (e.g. in the case of the oil and gas industry, Longford and Sale) whereas employment in many parts of the region .has declined. Sale and Bairnsdale have been the principal centres of growth in the rapidly expanding tertiary sector (including the industries, finance, community services, wholesale and retail trade and public administration and defence.)
Rural Industry The trerids in beef and sheep numbers in the Region shown in Figure 7 reflect clearly the impact of the several factors influencing rural industry in the region.·. Thus, in the latter half of the 1960' s, in the wake of a substantial FIGURE 7: SHEEP, LAMBS AND BEE(CATTLE IN EAST GIPPSLAND 1965-1976
Number of·· Animals
:~;~:
1 t 600 '000 ~;~~ ~~} 1~00,ooorl~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ lll ~K /' 1 200 000 :~~= t t .·::': .: :··:~
: . ·,
1965 1966 . 1967 1968 .1969 1970 1971 1972 .1973 1974 1975 1976. TABLE 3 · . WORKFORCE BY INWSTRY BY SEX IN· THE EAST GIPPSLAND REGION AT 30TH JUNE 2 19612 1966AND1971· A.s. r .• c. Industry 1961 :1966 Division 1971 ·Males . Females .Persons Males Females Persons - Males Females. Persons
Agriculture Fishing and 3,755 343 4,098 3,506 703 Hunting 4,209 3,046 . 598 3,644 Forestry 552 2 554 461 11. 472 386 16 396 Mining 33 2 35 45 3 48 186· 12 198 Manufacturing 2,255 179 .. 2,431 2,371 250 -2,621 2,109 285 2,394 Electricity, Gas etc. 262 2 268 190 12 202 240 18 258 Construction 1,582 2L 1,603 1,708 36 1,744 1,559 46 1,605 Wholesale, Retail Trade 1,708 769 2,477 1,785 964 . 2, 749 2,172 1,239 3,411 Transport Storage 600 41 641 611 54 665 593 60 653 Commmication 298 149 447 ~22 ~32 454 269 150 419 I-' Finance etc. I\) 251 126 377 291 155 .446. 391 ' 216. 607 Public. Admin. & Defence 900 69 911 821 10.4 925 . 1,038 207 1,245 Community Services 506 731. 1,291 638 920 1,558 663 1,083 1,746 Entertainment 6.75 668 1,341 530 918 1,448 1,096' 946 2,042 TOTAL 13,439 . _3,103 . 13,279 4,262 17,541 13,742 4,876 18,618
Source: . A.B.S. Census Data. Data :from the 1961 and 1966 Census has been reclassified to con:fonn with the industry classification (A.s.r.c.) used :for the :first time at the 1971 Census. 13 ' growth in world demand for beef, rural pro(lucers in East Gippsland, as elsewhere in Australia expanded their beef. herds considerably, often . switching from sheep and wool production to .do so. Following the closure of those markets to Australian producers in 1974 and 1975, and also the limited access to the British market arising from Britain's entcy ·to the E.E.C., beef pr.ices and dem.Bnd 'on both export and domestic markets ~e~lined dramatically (by more than half between 1973 and 1975). ··}>rices have since recovered, but npt. s~i.ciently to offset the continued escalation in costs, SO that the. inCOI!leS Of many beef. producers in the region remain low. Beef ca tt.le numbers have recovered somewhat in East Gippsland so that the proportion of the State's beef.. cattle located in the region is comparable with that which prevailed in the 1968-1970 period.
The decline in eheep numbers which accompanied the rapid growth in beef cattle numbers in East Gippsland in the.early 1970's can be related to the lower relative returns to sheep and wool production compared with beef production, at the time. Wool has been subject to continuing intense price competition from man made fibres and the depressed outlook for the textile sectors in the major industrialised countries has meant that market expectations for wool produce have remained subdued. Whilst the introduction of floor price schemes for wool has stabilised returns in the industry, sheep numbers in Australia have not yet returned to the levels of the e'arly 1970' s prior to the switch to beef. The trends in East Gippsland are con-. sistent with this pattern.
Dairy cattle numbers in East Gippsland have also declined continuously throughout the 1970's. This decline can be related to falling absolute and per capita declines in consumption of most milk products, contin uing pre.ssures for structural adjustment in the industry, and the switch to beef production by some farmers because of the better returns available compared with dairying.
Although relevant official statistical data is not available,it would appear that the factors reviewed above have .resulted in .a continuing decline in income earning and employment opportunities in rural industry throughout East Gippsland in the 1970's.
Forestry.·· Hardwood· production in East Gippsland has expanded rapidly in the last
' 14 :: ..
ten years, reaching 590,000 cubic metres or 51% of total Victorian .output in 1976-77 (see Table 4). Although.relevant precise estimates are not available, the growth in output has not been reflected in employment growth as the process of structural adJustment and capital . . . I . intensification has reduced labour demands within the industry.
TABLE 4 MILL LOG OUTPUT IN EAST GIPPSL:AND REGION AND VICTORIA, 1966-67 TO 1976~77
(Cubic Metres) Ea.aL Glppala:nd East Gippsland Vict.oria as %of Victoria
1966~67 440,967 1,283~664 34.4 1968-69 490 '742 1,267' 491 38.0 1970-71 521,297 1,277,508• 40.8 1972-73 507,377 1,227,343 41.3 1974-75 . 580,240 .1,224,570 47.3 1975-76 .. · 571,749 1,200,498 47.6 1976-77 590,032 1,153;556 51.1 Source: Forest Commission of.Victoria
Oil - Gas
Output of crude oil and. natural gas from the Gippsland,Basi~. has expanded continuously since production commen:ced.in 1969. In 1977, 23.0 million kilolitres of unstabilised·crude.oil and 2.97 million cubic metres of natural gas were produced. As wi.th forestry, however, the level of employinent in this· activity has rema.ined fairly stable since construction of the production platforms was completed.
Manufacturing . . . The level of manufacturing employment in East Gippsland has remained fairly stab.le at around 2, 300 persons since 1971 •· (Table 5) There has be~n.a continuing employment. decline in the food. processing sector resulting primarily from the·progressive rationalisation of dairy processing operations throughout the region. ·(Since 1971, dairy factories have been closed in Orbost, Sale and Bairnsdale). Employment in sawmilling and associated wood processing activities has remained relatively unchanged over a long period of time. Growth has occurred in other industries as the result of the setting up of 15
several small new enterprises in the Region. Most manufacturing growth in the Region since 1970 has taken place in Sale.
TABLE 5 NUMBER OF ESTABLISHMENTS AND :EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING
BY INDUSTRY GROUP 2 EAST GIPPSLAND REGION 2 1968-69 TO 1974-75.
Food Drink and Wood and Other: Total Man- Tobacco Wood Products Industries uf'acturi~ No.est. ·Emp. No.est. Emp. No.est. Emp. No.est. Emp. 1968-69 38 728 69 1107 22 328 129 2163 1969-70 39 716 66 1127 23 337 128 2180 1971-72 32 691. 68 1189. 28 381 128 2261 1972-73 . 30 666 60 1155 28 . 467 118 2288 1973..:.74 . 30 593 62 1128 31 612 123 2333 •1974-75 . 27 565 63 1148 35 558 125 2271
Source: A.B.S. Victorian O:f:fice, Manufacturing· Establishments, Small Area Statistics (AnnUa.l Publication)~
Building and Construction . Following a. slump in the level o:f dwelling completions in the Region · . in 1971-72. (see Figure 8) the li;ivel o:f building activity in the region ha'.s continued to expand in the Region. s.ale experienced a building boom in 1973-74 and the area around Bairnsdale experienced a similar expansion in 1975-76. ·
Tourism The l.imi ted data available relating to tourist activity in the Region suggest that the number o:f visitors to the many tourist attractions and.facilities in the Region and expenditure by tour:l.sts has been increasing. · The extent to which this apparently increased tourist . . . . . - and recrea.tion acitivi ty has generated additional. employment opportunities is some~hat uncertain, although it would appear that centres such as Lakes Eritrance and Mallacoota.have benefited in this way.
. . Other Tertiary Industry As indicated in Table 3, between 1961 and 1971 the most signi:ficant employment growth sectors in the East Gippsland econom,y were in the ...... Tertiary sector industries o:f wholesale and retail trade, :finance, public adininistration a.nd.de:fence, community services (education FIGURE 8~ NUMBER OF DWELLINGS COMPLETED BY MUNICIPALITY IN EAST GIPPSLAND 1970-1976 No. of Dwellings 250 .. " ·"
•.. • ".: 225 •• •• ,· ·:. • • " ' • • ... • • .; • • 200 •• • • • •• •• 175 • • • • • •• • •• 150 • • ·, •• • •• .· • • •• •• •• •• • • ... • Tambo Shire • City of Sale • Bairnsdale Shire 100 ••
· Orbost Shire
75 •• '7 . ••·• '7 Maffra Shire • •• '7 • • • '7 ••• '7 • '7 '7 ftAAA~ . .50
25 : ·.•\ ~- ~ .-A~** !'. ·.•• · ..~ · ••• ~ health, etc.) and entertainment. Data on trends in these industries since 1971 is virtually non-existent. It would appear, however, that employment growth in these industries has continued. Employment in wholesale and'retain trade grew by 8% in Sale and 5% in Bairnsdale between 1968-69 and 1973-74 though it declined in other parts of the Region. Several State government agen cies (e.g.· the Ministry of Conservation, Department of Youth, Sport and Recreation) established new offices in the Region in the early 1970's and oth~rs (e.g. Social Welfare) have increased the ·size of their existing establishments. Staff at the major hospitals in the Region has also been expanded. Unemployment In common with trends elsewhere in Victoria and Australia, East Gippsland has experienced a substantial increase in the level of unemployment since 1973 (see Figure 9). · Unemployment amongst .young people in particular has increased dramatically, partly because of the general lack of enipioyment opportunities a.n:d partly be·cause of the absence of jobs suitable for young peopl.e arising from the narrow economc base of East Gippsland. Data from the Students Intentions Survey undertaken as part of the present study; _suggest that most young people anticipate having to leave the East Gippsland region in order to obtain suitable employment·opportunities. 2.4 BASIC SERVICES It. is widely recognised that the provision of peysical infrastructure - . particularly transport and communicati·on facilities, water supply. and. sewerageworks - can exert an important influep.ce on the pattern of change and development within a Region. Thus,. the. building or upgrading of a road can increase the accessibility of ree;ional tourist and recreation resources to residents and visitors; the absence of an adequate water supply or sewerage system may inhibit development in particular locations. The following paragraphs summarise the ·existing situation with respect to the availability. and adequacy of major infra. structure networks in East Gippsland andideritify the possible impact of present availability on future patterns of ~ha.nge. Transport and Communications Transport and communications in East Gippsland centre around a corridor . . . . running east-west across the Region along the coastal plain. The ------~ ------ FIGURE 9: UNEMPLOYMENT IN EAST GIPPSLAND - JANUARY 1972 - APRIL 1978 Nos. of Unemployed 1,400 ·------··-··-----·-· ---· .. ------~-.------it----~--j 1,300 Males 1,200 1,100 ·.~ 1,000 ·. 900 ·. ..•. 800 .. .. 700 .. ::. ·. 600 .: 500 400. 300 200 100 Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja.Ap Ju,Oc .Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap Ju Oc Ja Ap 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 17 corridor incorporates the Princes Highway which traverses the whole Region, linking it with Melbourne and Sydney and the trunk rail route connecting Orbost, Bairnsdale, Sale and centres in between with . . . . Melbourne. A network of State ·Highways, declared Main Roads and minor roads extend outwards from this major corridor, linking the smaller centres along the river valleys to the main trariaport spine and to the major urban centres of Sale and Bairnsdale •. A ·branch rail line links .Maffra and Heyfield with Traralgon in the LaTrobe Valley. Complementing these land-based transport systems in the Region ar~ a series of airfields located at Sale, Bairnsdale, Mallacoota and Orbost.- only some of which are capable of taking regular.services. The main features of the Region's transport network are shown' in Fig. 10. Most movement of people and goods in East Gippsland talces place by road and road use, J;Brt:iculacl.y for passenger movements, has been increasing steadily in the 1970's. Much of this growth would seem to reflect the increased tourist and recreation activity in the Region. The existing transport network imposes a number of limitations on the possible pattern of change in East Gippsland. The most important of these.are: (i) ~he fact that all State Highways in the Region are two lane , undivided carriageways increases difficulty of travel between the Region and Melbourne and other parts·of Victoria. (ii) The.absence of an all weather road link across the northern ·part of the region impedes communication between East Gippsland and the Nor.th East Region. (iii) · Many rurai roads in the region are not able to cope with the pressures placed on them by heavy transports moving timber and · other rural produce. (iv) The absence of a well established air transport link between ·the Region and Australia's major cities inhibits the growth of tourist activity and increases the feeling of isolation am ·. ongst regional residents. Water Resources and Water Supply · East Gl.ppsland is generally well endowed with surface water resources. Ten major rivers are located wholly within the Region (their average annual flows are shown on Fig. 11) and the western: half of the Region .. FIGURE 10: TRANSPORT NETWORK - MAJOR FEATURES r-.. \ ., \. .r .~· . I I ( N ~ ...... , \ .... ___ "l ...... __/ Buchan · Licola ·scALE 20 10 0 .20 40 lZ1 l=------:-1 kilometres · · Highways Other Major Roads j I I I I I Railways 0 Afrports Military Aerodrome *•• Regional Freight Centre FIGUREll: MAJOR EAST GIPPSLAND RIVERS (Mean Annual Flows in Brackets) . . __.--' """',. (""''-,/'- ·. 'k ~ ? .. , I N I ( Ome.o ' \ . .. , \. Swifts ' I Creek .Be mm River SCALE 20 10 0 20 40 .LZt c:;;::---i kilometres . r 18 also hae accesa to water from the Thomson and Latrobe Rivera which flow into the Gippeland Lakes. The Lower Snowy, Latrobe and Mitchell rivers have the highest mean annual flows - 1,323, 945 and 934 (Ml x 103) respectively •. Much of the water available from the Lower Snowy is utilised in the Snowy River Scheme. Of the other rivers in the Region; the Macalister has the highest proportion of its flow utilised (30%) •. · The major solirces of water in the region, however, are the Thomson and the Latrobe Rivers which llave approximately 17% and 12% respectively of their annual flows utilised (the water being used primarily outside East Gippsland). Existing plans will further increase that utilisation rate. T.own water supply in the region is provided by a network of local waterworks trusts. In moat centres in the region, the design capacity of existing systems is sufficient to meet projected rieeds, though there are a.number of localised exceptions as follows:- (i) EXtension of water supply systems will be reqUired in . Bairnsdale and Heyfield before 1980 and tii Lakes Entrance before 1985. (ii) A number of centres on the coast (e.g. Mallacoota, Marlo), .· experie:r;ice difficulties in meeting the high l:evels ·of den:and · generated in sUJIDD.er by the influx of holiday-makers. Water quality is generally adequate for domestic purposes throughout. the Region, with the exception of the Lower Thomson in the vicinity of the City of Sale. Largely ;because of the poor river water quality around Sale, the City has·had to obtain its entire domestic supply from bores~ Rivers further east have no such problems. Sewerage Five centres in East Gippsland (Sale, Bairrisdale7 Lakes Entrance, Ma.ffra and Orbost) are currently_ serviced by publicly provided sewerage systems. Sewerage authorities have also been constituted for Heyfield, Mallacoota and Stratford. Moat existing systems have sufficient capacitY: to cope with.anticipated growth in. 'disposal. The exception is in Bairns of sewerage to Paynesville, Eagle Point and Raymond Island is essential. to minimise pollution in the Gippsland Lakes~ Solid Waste Disposal In most towns of Ea~t Gippsland, solid waste disposal is provided by at least weekly domestic garbage collection operated by municipalities. Disposal is primarily by means of sanitary land fill in local tips; at Lakes Entrance, Metung and Mallacoota, disposal is by trench and burn. Most existing sites in the region have sufficient capacity to meet requirements for the next 5 - 10 years. The localised problems which exist in.the Region (e.g. at Bairnsdale and Paynesville are generally not of regional signifies.rice). Telecommunications Considered overall, East Gippsland is relatively well served with telecommU.nications services. The Region contains '43 automatic telephone exchanges serving 12,500 subscriber~ and 10 manual telephone exchanges sernng 900 subscribers. All of the services connected to automatic exchanges have access to . national subscriber trunk dialing (STD). Approximately 93% of subscribers in the region have access to STD, compared with 87% for coun.try Victoria as a whole. However, the cost of telephone services is a deterrent to settlement in niany parts of the Region. Radio services are provided by national and commercial stations trans mi tting from Sale (3GI and 3TR resp~ctively) and the national station 3MT Omeo which opened in 1976. TV services in the region are provided by the national station ABLV-4 and the ·commercial station GLV-10 located in the Latrobe Valley. The only TV tr0.nsm:.i..tter in the Region is located at Orbost; this relays programs from ABLV-4 to East Gippsland. Becaus.e ~f the topographical character of the Region, radio and TV reception in many parts of the Region is relatively poor. 20 CHAPI'ER } - THE FUTURE OF EAST GIPPSLAND: PRINCIPAL STRATEGIC PLANNING ISSUES This chapter discusses the major issues with which strategic policies and plans for East Gippsland will need to deal iri the next five to ten years, under four headings, viz.: 3.1 Promoting Economic & Employment Opportunities 3.2 Tourism and Recreation 3.3 Manage~ent of Natural Resources 3.4 Access to Community Services In each case the analysis focusses on the extent to whioh activity patterns . in the next decade may differ from those of the immediate past as the r.esul t of forces operating· at national, state and/or regional levels~ and assuming· no significant policy intervention by Commonwealth or State · Governments to alter the situation. 3.1 PROMOTING ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES There is no doubt that the dominant issue of concern: in East Gippsland in the next ten years will centre on the provision of adequate economic and employment opportunities for the Region's pop.. ulation. ·The following paragraphs analyse separately prospects for growth in existing economic activities in East Gippsland and the possibilities for developing new economic opportunities in the Region. Growth Prospects in Existing Industries Apart from tourist and recreation activity (which is treated separately in Section 3.2 below), the capacity for eXpanding employment oppor tunities in most existing industries in East Gippsland seems relatively limited. Thus it is unlikely that there will be any basic change in the prospects for growth.in rural industries. Incomes in those industries will probably continue to fluctuate as they have in the past as a result of the continuing influence of the factors affecting· world ~kets for wool, meat and dairy products. This implies at best stable and more probably declining levels of employment in these industries and associated ·mB.nUtacturing activities. Similarly,·it seems unlikely that there will be any· substantial increase in 'the level.of employment in forestry· and timber processing industries. . . The Forest Commission expects thB.t timber output .in East Gippsl.and will peak.in the mid 1980 1 s and declirie thereafter •. This reflects the 21 Commission's assessment of likely future levels of demand for timber and its determination of the role which the forests of East Gippsland should play in meeting that demand. ' Even should the demand estimates be exceeded the continuing long term process.of restructuring and reorganisation of the timber industry in Victoria makes it unlikely that employment in the industry will increase markedly. Demand will be satisfied increasingly through the amalgamation and modernisation of sawmills thus making the industry increasingly capital intensive. One industry in which long term demand trends will not act as a con straint. on future growth and activity is oil and gas production. Whilst output of oil and gas products from existing Basa Strait fields is expected to decline from the early 1980'a, estimates by.the Department of Minerals and Energy indicate that demand for petroleum in Victoria will increase by at least 60% in the decade from 1975/76 and that natural gas consumption will more than double in that period. The l:)asis thus exists for new fields in the Gippsla.nd Basin. The staging of development will clearly be related more to Government energy pricing policies in Australia than .to the level of physical demand, but Esao - B.H.P.'s recent conn:nencement of drilling of four ...... new wells at a cost of up to $1.5 million each confirms the likelihood of continuing development. It is probable that growth of output in the oil and· gas industry will continue to exce7d the growth of the labour force required to produce that output.· M9reover, as in the past decade, the economic impact of the oil and gas industry in East Gippsland is likely to ·be confined primarily to the vicinity of Sale. Attractipg .New Industries to East Gippslarid The National and State context in Which policies for promoting employment . opportunities in non-metropolitan regions have to be formulated has changed a.ranlatically in the past five years. Declining employment levels in manufacturing, in particular,- appear to have rendered obsolete, policiesbasedon attracting to non-metropolitan regions a·greater share of a growing totai emplonnent cake. Similarly, the continuing impact of structural change in agriculture and forestry and technologi cal developments in the tertiary .sector is tending to reduce labour demand in those industries. 22 Moreover, considerable uncertainty exists as to future market possibil ities for a m~.ber of potential industrial developments in East Gippsland. Thus, in recent years the possibility of developing a substantial woodchipping enterprise in the Region has been canvassed based on the use of the residue of trees felled for sawlogs. Since this development was first mooted, there has been a substantial reduction in the deII8nd for woodchips in Japan~ Australia's principal market for the product. Currently, for example, the woodchip mill at Eden in New South Wa1es, is operating substantially below capacity and has a stockpile of woodchips because of a fall off in deII8nd for paper. .Even assuming that a woodchipping enterprise in East Gippsland was proven competitive with similar developments being investigated elsewhere in Australia, a substantial resurgence in world demand for wood products. would need to eventuate before development could proceed.. At best this is unlikely to happen for many years. A similar s.i tua ti on applies with respect to the development of the recently.discovered oopper deposit near Benambra. Currently world copper prices are such that even established Australian producers (e.g. Mount Isa Mines Limited) are not obtaining adequate returns from the mining of copper. If development. of the copper deposits does proceed in the difficult terrain which exists around Benambra, it appe~s unlikely that this will have any substantial impact in East G;i.ppsland in the next five to ten years. Potential clearly exists within the region for the development of . I ind~stries concerned with the processing of fish and vegetables produced in the Region. The proposed construction and operation of the Omega base at· Damma.n in Central Gippsland may also result. in the expansion of employment opportunities, particularly in Sale. 3.2 Tourism and Recreation One industry in which there could be. considE?rable growth in East Gippsland is tourism and recreation. Future growth in this· activity will be determined by two factors, viz.: (i) !rhe overall growth in the Nationa1·a:nd State tourist and recreation market. (ii) East Gippsland's ability to maintain and/or increase its share of that market. ....------ 23 It seems reasonable to anticipate continued growth in the overall tourist and recreation ·market. Contributing factors will include reduced annual leave entitlement and greater :flexibility in arrangements for work. Melbourne _has been the traditional market for East Gippsland's tourist and recreation resources and facilities; about 70% of visitors to the Region in the early 1970's appear to have originated in Melbourne, most travelling to East Gippsland by car. Melbourne ' has also been the major source of growth in the Gippsland Lakes area. Both the Gippsland Lakes Planning Stud.y and the_ Board's 1975 Report, The Ninety Mile Beach, the Future of Existing Subdivisions revealed that·the greater proportion (more than so%) of lots in each of those areas was owned by M~lbourne residents. It seems that continued growth in tourist and recreation activity in East Gippsland will depend on its ability- to increase its share of this Melbourne market~ but also to diversify the areas from which it attracts visitors. Other parts of Australia and indeed overseas countries will also be competing for this market, so that continuing intensive marketing of East Gippsland's tourism and recreation potential will be essential. Moreover it is important to realise that the benefits accruing to a region from increased tourist and recreation ·activity are frequently overestimated. As pointed out in the Travel S'ilrvey of East Gippsland undertaken by the Australian National Travel Association in 1971, the inevitably high level of leakages of tourist spending from a Region such_ as East Gippsland means that the Iii:liltiplier effect of increased tourist spending in the Region will probably be relatively low. M:>netheless it is clear that a consistent strategy.for tourist development will be an essential component of-·any future_ strategy plan for East Gippsland. _ One particular aspect of the pattern of tourist activity in East Gippsland which warrants particular attention in programmes to facilitate the development of tourism relates to the implications for the provision of tourist-related services a.rid the management of tourist resources of the seasonal pattern of tourist activity in the Region. The data in Figure 12 relating to occupancy rates in tourist accommo dation establishments in Victorian regions demonstrate that the.seasonal variation of tourist activity in East Gippsland is greater than in any - - ~ other region of Victoria except the Barwon Region (based on Geelong). FIGURE 12: ROOM OCCUPANCY RATES IN TOURIST ACCOMMODATION ESTABLISHMENTS IN SELECTED REGIONS OF VICTORIA JULY 1976 - JUNE 1977 • • • .. • • •• , . • • •• •• ,, \ • • .. . , . \. • • •· \ \ • ... . "' "" \ • \ •• ";/ \ • \ . • \ -, • / \ .. ·. \ Melbourne --. /. - ' •• / ·... \ • • / \ • • . \ • / ·. • •. .• ' • .• \. • • • - •• •• • '· ...... •• .. •• ·• • • ' • .• •• ..• • • • •• •• • • •...... • • •• •• • • North Eastern • • Central Gippsland • • •... •·• • .. East Gippsland Barwon J F M A M J J A s 0 N D J F M A M J 1976 1977 24 .. Whilst the Victorian Eastern Development.Association (V.E.D.A~) seems to have achieved. some success in i ta efforts to promote "off-pealc" tourism in.the. Region, it is. l.llllikely that the seasonal variation in activity Wilf be reduced significantly in the short term. This creates a number of special problems with respect to the provision and management of touri~t· facilities. For example, ·if tourist facilities were provided at a. ~Ufficient level to accommodate the seasonal peak in tourist numb~rs, co'.qsiderable l.lllderutilisatiori of both private and public sectoi> . capital.' resources would. be iikely to result;. conversely' the presei;ice of seasonally high population levels would be likely to overtax . the capacity oi social facilities and infrastructure at particular locat.ions. 3.3 USE AND MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES East Gippsland's natural resources - the extensive areas of naturally occurri~ forests, numerous rivers and streams, the coastline.and the Lakes,- the large areas of the Region suitable in particular for pastoral activity and the offshore oil and gas reserves are central to the Region's economic and social life. Over much of' the Region (e.g. iri i • the llia.jority of the 2.1 million hectares of reserved EU:ld protected forests which cover 7CY1/o of the Region's total land area - see Figure 13} . . . there is little dispute over the prinia.ry use to which the resources of· the are~ should be put. In particular locations(including some parts of the publicly.owned land area), however, where .the very quality of the resources.makes them·suitable for numerous uses, significant conflicts have developed over how the resources are to.be·used and, particularly, who is to benefit from their use. Many of these conflicts will be c;>f critical significance to.future planning strategies in East Gippsla.nd. The following paragraphs analyse the nature of the principal conflicts ...... with which.policy makers will have to deal in the Region in the next ten years. Ru.;ai ·subdivision Undoubtedly the most controversial ch.a.nge in the pattern of natural resource use which has occurred in East Gippsland in the 1960;' s and the 19701 S has been the subdivision Of significant areas Of rural land in the Region. · The analysis of Titles Office data l.llldertaken by: the Board as part of the study indicates that some 27 ,ooo hectares have. been subdivided in this way in the Region since 1970. This is in addition to the 11,200 lots created along the Ninety Mile Beach in the late 1960's. FIGURE 13: AREAS OF· RESERVED FOREST, CROWN LAND AND NATIONAL PARKS IN EAST GIPPSLAND . S:G>+G+-n .6 .N OR BOST MAFFRA - SCALE 10 0 10 20 30 40 I k'1_ I;;;>) k?1 Kilometres [jjjjj~ Reserved Forest National Parks 25 Although, considered overall, the area of land subdivided in this way is insignificant in a regional context, (being less than 1% of the :Region's total land area), the concentration of the subdivision within the Region (i.e. along the Ninety Mile Beach, in the Gippsland Lakes, adjacent to the major towns of Sale and Bairnsdale, and in Maffra Shire - see Figure 14) has created significant planning probiems. At present the limited subdivision which has occurred in other parts of the Region does not constitute a threat to rural production. In moat instances small lot subdiviaioh is not occ.tirring in prime agricultural areas, but in areas where.other attributes, for example, amenity,. proximity to towns and services and proximity _to recreational facilities are the dominant factors. The factors contributing to this.subdivision process have been diverse and would appear to have changed over time. Land speculation would seem to have been a major influence in the creation of the lots along the Ninety ~ile Beach in the early 1960's; similar factors appear to have been a.t work in the early development of the subdivisions around the Gippsland Lakes, although in recent years it would appear that a genuine demand has built up for use of the Gippsland Lakes area for recreation.and retirement purposes. In other parts of the Region, (e.g. around Omeo) subdivision· seems to be designed mainly to meet a demand for "rural retreats". Different community groups and individuals react differently to-proposals to subdivide rural land. In particular farmers faced with difficult economic circumstances see the subdivision and sale of small rural lots as a way out of their financial problems.. Goveriunent agencies responsible for the management of natural resources in the interests of ·the community as a whole are anxious that the potential adverse effects of potential · subdivisions be minimised. For example, the Department of Crown Lands and.Survey recommends that intensive subdivision should riot occur adjacent to Crown Reserves· to avoid increased usage pressures and management problems. The State Rivers and Water Supply Coinntission do not favour subdivision in the Macalister Irrigation District; flood prone areas arid water supply catchments. Similarly, certain specific areas have been identified by Shires as being inappropriate for small lot subdivision (for example Mitchell River Flats and the Macalister Irrigation District). The resolution of these conflicts inevitably involves a trade off between the objectives of these different interest groups. FIGURE 14: NUMBER OF LOTS CREATED BY SUBDIVISION, 1970-1977 • BRIGHT • 0 OMEO • • • • • rAMBO • • • ORBOST MAFFRA • .. . •• 0 •• SCALE · 1-2 Lots 10 0 10 20 30 40 • I L/1 ~. L---:--1 • · 3-10 Lots Kilometres 11-30 Lots ROSEDALE· • • 31-59 Lots e Over 60 Lots 0 Major Localities 26 Gippsland Lakes The extensive development Which has occurred around the Gippsland' Lakes in the past ten to fifteen years reflects directly the importance of the Lakes as a resource of both regional and State significance. The increasi~ concern that appropriate strategie·s be developed to protect and mariage_-the Lakes area in the long-term interest of the community is reflected.in the numerous investigations and actions taken in the past ten years by municipalities, and State Government agencies such as . . the Town and Country Planning Board, Ministry of Conservation, Fisheries and Wildlife Service and National Parks Service~ ·. (Examples of such action inc~ude the Gippsland Lakes I.D.O. and Strategy Plan, the Lakes Entrance Planning Scheme, the Gippsland Regional Environmental Study and the .P~oclauiation·of the Gippaland Lakes National .Park.) As with rural iand, the effective management of. the Lakes area involves trade offs between the conflicting goals and objectives of the wide range of people who use the Lakes for a variety of active and passive rec reation PurPOSes. Lakes Entrance is also Victo_ria' s major fishing port. If the Lakes are to continue to be used for as wide a range of purposes as possib.le~ it will be necessar;Y to develop and implement a multi plicity of management strategies including land use controls, the mini misation· of pollution in streams flowing into the Lakes, t;he conservation of flora and fauna and the provision of a range of community facilities. coastal Resorts As well as the Gippsland Lakes, sev~ral other points along the Victorian coastline. . in East Gippsland have emerged as important centres for tourist and recreation actiVity. Most of the visitors to these centres originate in Melbourne. but significant numbers also come from Canberra and parts of Southern New South Wales. In all of these centres the visitors generate pressures on their environ mental and infrastructure capacity which in turn often creates a division of opinion as to the respective rights and roles of residents and visitors. Much of this·conflict can be attributed to the fact that visitor use of both the natural and man-made resources of the area is highly seasonal in nat ure as illustrated in Fig. 12 above. The likelihood that recreation activity ~n all these areas will continue to increase in the future will increase the need to develop appropriate management strategies in such areas.· 27 Public Land The Land Conservation Council.is responsible for making recommendations to the State Government· on the use of public land throughout Victoria. In April 1978 the Council issued its proposed recommendations on the use of public land in its Alpine Study Area, which as· shown i,n Figure 13 above, includes significant areas of East Gippsland. Previously (in February 1977) the Council had issued recommendations on public land use in Ros~dale and Orbost Shires, * and is·. currently investigating the future use of such land in the Gippsland Lakes hinterland. Considered overall the recommendations contained in the Reports so far issued by the Land Conservation Council do not propose dramatic changes in the use of public land in East Gippsland. In particular locations, however, the implementation of the recommendations might result in changes of use which could have significant impacts. For e:lcample, the EB.st . Gippsla.nd Regional Planning Committee and others have pointed out the serious consequences which the removal of certain areas from timber . . . production might have on the economy of Omeo Shire. . . In its proposed recommendations for the Alpine Area, the L.C.C. recognized that the resolution of such conflicts of interest does not admit a simple solution. It is important moreover that the use of both public and privately owned land in the Region be effectively co-ordinated.·· The implementation of the L.c.c. recommendations as they relate to the Region thu.s need to be ~ffectively integrated into any strategic plan formulated for the Region. 3. 4 ACCESS TO COMMUNITY SERVICES Lack of access to community serVices, ·particularly. amongst those people living 1n the northern half of the region and the ar~a east of Bemm. River has long.been a major issue of concern to the East Gippsland. comm.unity. In its Interim Regional Planning Statement, the Regional Planning Committee described the problem in the following tenns:- . . . "The decline in rural populations is accompanied by a decline in rural enterprises (such as milk processing ~nd timber milling) which ...... comprise the economic base of the comm.unity; and also in comm.unity * Note: Defined by the Council as "South Gippsla.nd District 111 and "East Gippsland" respectively. ~ . 28 facilities and services (such as schools and post .offices), which com prise ·the social base of the community. The situation is rather.like a worsening spiral with fewer faeilities to support the people and fewer people to support the facilities. The essence .of the pr.oblem is possibly poor or slow communications inclu~ing for example high transport, freight and telephone charges. Non-provision or even removal of communications.heightens the feeling of isplf:i.tion." Many collmitinity services (high schools, hospitals, doctors, dentists and major retail facilities) in East Gippsland..are available .only in the major urban centres located along the Princes Highway (see Figure· 15). F6r the 90% of the population.which.live within half an hour's driving time (40 km) of these centres, access to most services is often comparable With, and in some cases better than, the situation in the metropolitan area and other large U:rban centres.· For the.five to·six thousand people who live :fu;rther away from these major towns., however, access to the services takeri fo:r: granted in the .• major .towns is rather more difficult. ~ilst in the last twenty five years, the provision of some services in, these remote areas has been increa;sed (for example secondary classes have been established at Omeo; Cann River, Mallacoota and Swift's Cre.ek, new bush nursing centres h.8.ve been set up at Cann River, Gela,ntipy and Nowa Nowa, and new ambulance bases at Lakes Entrance and Mallacoota), accessi~ility to other services ha1:3declined (for example there ~re now no doctors at .Bruthen ~d Omeo, nor dentists at Heyfield arid Orbost as there were in 1952). ' ' ' ' ' ...... The probability of a continuing slow decline".in population in the rural areas of·the Region coilpled with the very re8:1.economic and organisational : . difficulties of providing services in lightly settled remote areas makes it unlikely that accessibility to many services iri these areas will be improved in the short term. Continuiilg restrictions on appropriate capital and manpower resources will impose further restraints on efforts to improve the situation. Development of an effective strategy for. coIIJIIiunity service provision is, therefore, likely to be one of the more difficult tasks to be addressed in a future planning.' strategy for East Gipps1and~. · FIGURE 15: COMMUNITY SERVICES IN EAST GIPPSLANO BRIGHT ·.4 N Omeo•* . ' ORBOST 0&• Orbost • SCALE 16 0 10 20 30 40 Q· Number of Doctors I k1 !;;?! k?1 Kilometres D N\,lmber of Dentists • .Hospitals Secondary Schools ~ (includes Technical, Registered Secondary and High Schools). L------29 CHAPTER 4 MAIN B'F~TURE8 OF A REGIONAL STRATEGY PLAN FOR. EAST GIPPSLAND '· 4.1 PURPOSE, ROLE AND CONTENT OF A REGIONAL STRATEGY PLAN Municipalities and individual State Government agencies have already developed or are currently formulating policies and programmes relating to tna.ny of the issues discussed iri Chapter 3. For example, the Country Roads Board and municipalities have programmes for the maintenance.and/or upgrading of State Highways and other roads in . . . the regio;n; the Ministry of Tourism,and the. Victorian Eastern Development Association are engaged in tourist promotion and development; the Shires of Avon, Bairnsdale, Rosedale and .Tambo have co_.operated with the Board and othe+ State Government authorities to develop land use planning controls around the Gippsland Lakes. All of these policies and programmes are designed to achieve specific objectives. The purpose of strategic planning is to ensure that the policies and programmes of individual agencies are directed towards common objectives, and that they are effectivelyihtegrated. In this way, community benefit from the allocation of resources to individual programmes wi.11 be maximised. In the evolving three tier framework for . . . pla.n:hing in Victoria as outlined·in Chapter l,.t:he major instrument for achieving co-ordination and integration of specific programmes is. the regional strategy plan. In a sense a regional. strategy plan will primarily comprise a series of strategies cqncerned with each of the issues identified as being· of major significance to the future of the region. In the course of preparing .. ' such a plan, however, policies and programmes dealing with.individual issues or activities, have to be related to likely chaiiges in the overall pattern of activity in the region and to the impact whicn policies and programmes .in .different sectors may have on activities and resource use in other sectors. Anatysi.salong these lines provides the basis for the determination of priorities for resource allocation. Thus, a regional strategy plan will.normally.be divided into two major parts, viz. : (i) A.General Strategy outlining the principal goals and objectives .to be pursued in the plan, having regard.to the Region's potential role· within an evolving strategic plan for Vic tori.a as a whole, ------·-·----- and the principal strategic planning issues confronting the Region. The general strategy.should"also cater for the impact which anticipated changes and/or recommended policies in individual sectors may have on the structure of settlement and resource use within the Region. (ii)' Supporting Sector Strategies outlining the specific policies and programmes required to deal separat.el;y with individual issues, .and.the way in which those policies and programmes collectively contribute to the realisation of the goals expressed in the general strategy. To facili.tate appreciation of the integrated character of the programmes and polic~es recommended in this Report, the relationship between policies and programmes in individual sectors and the overall structure of the Region are examined together in Section 5. 4.2 EAST G!PPSLAND'S ROLE WITHIN VICTORIA Definition of East Gippsla.:rid's role within Victoria is a major aim of the.East Gippsland Regional Study. In large· measure, the role of any Region in. the economic and social life of Victoria is.determined by the character of the Region's natural resource base relative to that of other Regions and. the total demand for those resources. From this perspective it is clear that East Gippsland's specific long term role within Victoria will be to meet a major proportion of the State's continuing need·for oil, timber and fish products, and to provide opportunities for both week-end recreation and holiday acti\rities to a significant proportion. of the State's populat.ion •. Indeed considerable scope exists to expand the Region's role as a recreation and retirement centre, particularly for Melbourne residents. In the· past decade the Victorian Government, often acting in collaboration with the Commonwealth, has instituted a number bf policies designed to modify this. 'natural' role of Regions in order to improve the distribution of economic and social opportunities throughout Victoria. The most important of these policies have. been the promotion of Albury-Wodonga and Geelorig as centres for accelerated growth, the provision of a wide range . of. inc en ti ves to encourage the estab.lishment and expansion of secondary industries in non-metropolitan areas, and the progressive ·decentralisation of Government administration throughout the State, primarily in selected regional and sub-regional centres. 31 Whilst these various decisions fall far short of comprehensive strategy for the development of the State, they do provide some general guidelines as to the nature and extent of change to be promoted in various regions by explicit Government policies. The decisions represent an implicit endorsement by the Victorian Government of the views expressed in the 1967 Report of the Victorian Decentralisation Ad:visory Committee on the "Selection of Places Outside _the Metropolis ·of Melbourne for Accelerated Development" that the centres in Victoria ou_tside the Port Philip Region having sustained the greatest potential for industrial and commercial expansio_n .were Albury-Wodonga, Ballarat, Bendigo and the Latrobe Valley. The absen'ce of a centre in East Gippsland from this list reflects the isolati~n of East Gippsland from the major markets of Australia and its location well away from the major transport and communication networks linking those markets. Even were substantial capital resources made ava~lable,·for example, to upgrade transport· and communication lihkages. betw~en East Gippsland, Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, it is unlikely· that East Gippsland could discharge the roles envisaged for centres such as Albury~Wodonga, Ballarat or Bendigo. Considered within a State framework, East Gippsland's future will depend principally on its abiiity.to use its numerous unique natural.resources to provide the basis for widening the economic and social opportunities available in the region~ 4.3 STRATEGIC .. PLANNING GOALS FOR EAST GIPPSLA.ND The starting point for an effective planning strategy in Ea.st .Gippsland is the _formulation of a coherent and realistic.set of general planning goa;ts for·the region. Such planning goals wi:J.l implicity incorporate wider community goals such as the efficient and E;iconomic use of resources, the equal treatment of· individuals and groups within the community, and the promotion of a .variety of lifestyles. To be effective as a gl,lide for planning, however, goals must also be related to the major planning issues m,,th ·which each particular plan seeks to deal. The principal goals which it is suggested should be used as a basis for strategic planning in East Gippsland in the next five -to ten years are as follows:~ -(i) The maintenance of employment levels in·existing industries in the ·Region (including rural production, forestry, fishing and oil and gas production) and the promotiqn of additional employment opportunities. 32 (ii) ..The development of the· Region's role as a major :tourist, . . . recreation and retirement centre serving .both the Victorian and.. Australian markets. (iii) The effective protection and management of the significant natural resources of the region with a v:iew to facilitating . thei.r long term use for a wide range of purposes. (iv) . The·.improvement of the accessibility of resident·s in all parts of the Region, and.particularly the remote rural areas, to ·· · ·c.ommuni ty services • . 4.4 FUTURE POPULATION TRENDS It is widely recognized that population trends a.re a prima~ determinant of planning requirements at all geographical ~evels - State, region and municipa;li ty. Changes in the age and sex composition of the population also exert an important influence on the pattern of demand for resources. and services and on the priorities to be accorded to different progra.nimes; On the .other hand, preparing forecasts of population which can be used with confidence as a basis for planning at small .geographical levels is an extre,mely difficult process, particularly when, as has happened in the 1970's, demographic 'trends' change dra.Illatically. (The ·changing roles of natural increase and migration in contributing to population change iri East Gippsland over the past ten .years !;lighlights how quickly such 'tr~ndsi can alter). Even relatively small changes in the under lying parameters. can hav.e a significant impact on estimates of population. In August 1977, the Special Task Group on, Forecasts of the State Co-ordinatio~ Council in its "Report ori D~mographic Forecasts for. Victoria and its Standard Regions" indicated :tr!-at East Gippsland' s popula tiOrr could grow to some 60, 000 by 1986 given ·.that (i) Net overseas migration to Australia was5.0,000 persons per a.nrium (the comparable figure for the 1972-76 period was 40, 000 persons per annum). (ii) ·Victoria lost 7,000 persons per annum through interstate migration (the average.loss for the yearsl972-76 as estiriiated from. child endowment records was 6,000) •. (iii) East Gippsland's share of Victoria's popUiation inc;r:-eased from ~5.2% at the 1976 census to 5.3% in 1981 and 5.4% in 1986. 33· It is easy to criticise the above projections as being relatively crude and to point out that they fail to reflect the real dynamics of regional population change. Nonetheless by considering how these projections prepared in a State wide context relate to recent trends, 1 at the regional level, one can highlight the implications of possible future patterns of population change for strategic planning in Ea.st Gippslend~ Growth of East Gippsland's population to 60,000 persons by 1986 implies an increase of about 3,000 persons in each of the 1976 - 1981and1981 - 1986 intercensal periods. This compares with.i.ncreases of 2,400 persons between 1966 and 1971 arid 4,400 persons between 1971 and 1976. The major reason for the increase in the 1971-76 period was the reversal of net migration trends in the Region {see Table 2 above). Even were ::natural increase of population to decrease .by one third in the 1976- _1981a.n.d1981-1986 periods compared with 1971~1976, there would need to be a subs·tantial reduction in migration to th,e. region if the increases projected in the Forecasts' Task Group Report were to be realised. It would seem therefore that 60,000 must be regarded as a conservative estimate ?f the likely level of population in East Gippslarid by 1986. It is perhaps best regarded as a minimum estim:a~e of population in the region. Alternative population estimates.based on a range of assumptions relating to future trends in natUra.l.increase and migration in the region are shown in Table 6. These estimates highlight the context in.which the planning strategies andpolicies recommended below will be implemented. One major element of that st~tegy is to increase the capacity of the r~gion to attract migration by _promoting it as a tourist/ recreation/retirement area. Table 6 shows that if migration to the region inc.reased by a third over the estimated 1971-76 level, population in East Gippsland would reach 63,700 by 1986, assuming no change in the natural increase component. Growth about this level, therefore, would indicate ·substantial success in achieving that. particular element of the strategy. It seems reasonable to anticipate that most of the growth in population in the region up to 1986 will take place in the western half of the region around Sale, Bairnsdale and the Gippsland Lakes. It is in these areas that the major impact of c"LUTent finn propo·sals for further economic· development .in the Region will be felt~· The Gippsland Lakes . . . : . would al.so seem the most likely location of subs~antial tourst/recreation growth (including J>Otential 'retirement centre' functions) in the irmnediate future. 34 TABLE 6 ALTERNATIVE ESTDVIATES .OF· POPULATION IN EAST GIPPSLAND, 1981, 1986. Assumptions re Estimated Population Natural Increase & Migration in l976/81 and 1981/86 * . · 1981. 1986 A. Natural Increase 1,800 . ·. Migration 1,.350 56,850 60,000 B. Natural Increase 2,000 Migration 1,750 57,650 61, 400 C·. Natural Increase 2,650 Migration 1,750 58,100 62,500 •, D. Natural Inqrease 2,650 Migration·· 2,350 58,700 63,700 * Assumptions underlying estimates as follows: A. Assumes natural increase to be one quarter and. _Inigration one third less respe.ctively than occu:ITed in- the 1971/1,97.6 intercen~al period. B. Assumes natural increase one .quarter less than~ migration the same as in 1971/76. c. ·Assumes natural increase and migration at the s_ame level as 1971/76. D. Assumes riatural increase the same as, migration .one.third more than in 1971/76.~ ' , . 35 CHAPTER 5 RECOMMENDED POLICIES AND PROGRAlVIMES 5.1 PROMOTING ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES Efforts to promote economic and employment opportunities in East Gippsland need to be directed along three broad lines: , (a) ·The· pres·ervation of employment levels in the rural sector . ·~d.in those manufacturing enterprises already set up in ·East Gippsland. (b) The encouragement of economic activity in those industri,es in which Ea.st Gippsla.nd appears to have a natural advantage tourism, oil and gas exploration and d·evelopmeht, and forestry. (c) The further development of tertiary employment opportunities .in the region. It is necessary to be clear as to the respective roles of policies and actions at the National, State and Regional levels in promoting employ ment and· economic opportunities in East Gipp.sland. The viability of . . . most of East.Gippsland's industries is in fact dependent on the generation of export markets beyond the region ~ for rural and forest products;. fish, oil and gas. Development of ad~itional markets for these products is largely the function of CoIIllllonwealth or State Government marketing .authorities and is not generally susceptible to influence at the regional level. East Gippsland can however play a role in generating marke.ts for some , of the economic activity on which it is dependel;lt '."" notably tourism and recreation and the growing role of parts of the. region as a retirement centre for Melbourne. The policies required in relation to the further development. of tourism and recreation in the Region are discussed below. possibility. which Wa.rrants further investigation is the One particular. . extension c)f forestry woodlot schemes throughout the Region to provide alternative investment opportunities for farmers. Such programmes might provide a way of diversifying income sources in the rural sector, thus contributing to the long term viability of farming enterprises in the Region.· Additional opportunities appear to exist in promoting the concept of farm holidays in the Region. 5.2 TOURISM AND RECREATION The poiicies required to further develop East Gip.psland as a tourist, 36 recreation and retirement centre will· include · (i) A marketing progra.mine to widen.the area from which visitors are attracted to the Ea_st Gippsland Region. Particular attention might be focussed on established large centres.of population such as Sydney and Canberra. Guidelines for such a marketing programme were laid down in the ANTA Report on Travel in East Gippsland .prepared in 1971. Whilst it is necessary to review these guide liries in the light of development in the travel industry since they were formulated, they do provide a basis for the early formulation of an effective marketing programme. (ii) ·Policies and measures designed to protect and enhance the established tourist attractions of the Region both in the mountain areas and aiong the coast. Specific management strategies are required in centres subject to significant pressure either on a continuing or:seasonal basis (e.g. the Gippsland Lakes and Mallacoota). (iii)· Measures designed to protect the numerous sites of scientific .and historical interest in the Region. (iv). The· upgrading of transport networks between East Gippsland and ~xi.sting and potential tourist and recreation markets (notably Melbo~e and Canberra). Particular attention needs to be paid to. the upgrading of the Princes and Cann Valley Highways. ( v) The provision of adequate infrastructure (water supply., sewerage, recreational facilities) in centres most heavily used by visitors fo ·the Region. (i.e;. centres around the Gippsland Lakes, Mallacoota, Marlo). Services should be provided at a level adequate to cater f-or ·.peak demand.: As well as.its widespread natural tourist attra6tions, East Gippsland has also developed an extensive network of mainly family run caravan parks, hotels and motels. Currently, however,.· the Region laeks first _class accommodation facilities which might attract additional visitors to the area (e.g. for conferences and seminari;i). In recent years the private .sector has recognised the economic potential of investing in such a :facility in East Gippsland by proposing separate developments at for example, Lakes Entrance'and Mallacoota. Development of such a facility would bring a number of benefits to theRegion. It is important however .that the development take place in an area which has ready access to major transport and communication networks and to other necessary 37 support services, and also where the environmental impact of the development can. be minimised. Lakes Entrance ·clearly possesses many advantages in this regard. 5.3 PROTECTION AND MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES Policies. for the protection and management of. the natural resources of East Gippsland wili need to be of two kinds,· viz:- (i) :tn the large areas of the Region where. there is no major conflict over the primary purpose for which natural resources are to be used (e.g. in protected fore_sts, water supply catchments. and designated national parks) co-ordination of effective long term management practices by agencies· .such as the Forests Commission, State Rivers and Water Supply Comi:nission and National Parks Service. (ii) In locations where significant changes of resource use seem likely ·to. take· place and where conflicts of -interest may thus be generated, {e.g. the Gippsland Lakes and major coastal. resort areas), development and implementation of specific. lorig term management strategies to guarantee the sustained ~vailability and use of the resources for as many uses as possible. The nature of the policies required in these various locations is outlined below. Gippsland Lakes The likelihood of continiing competing demands for the use of the Gippsland takes sub-region for a variety of purposes necessitates the early imple mentati.ori of effective policies for the management and use of the diverse resources of that area. · Such policies will ne_ed to strike a balance between ensuring the ability to provide for the range Of demands for land and other :facilities, enhancing the attractions of the area, and ensuring that ~ew development is of an appropriate and satisfactory standard. The recently prepared Gippsland Lakes Strategy ~lan:::.provides the basis for co-operative planning by municipalities and State Government agencies in the area. This plan is designed to cater effectively for the steady growth of the Lakes as a centre for tourism' re·creation and retirement, by meeting demands for different types of land.use as close as practicable to existing services and facilities, by prote.cti,ng areas of special .scientific or historical interest, by safeguarding water quality in the Lakes and by applying appropriate conditions_to the development of land.identified as having particular physical constraints which affect its sui tab_ility for different uses. In pursuit of· these objectives, the sub-regional strategy plan incorporates specif'.ic .policies relating to 38 the zoning and use of land for urban and other purposes within the Gippsland Lakes. In relation to urban land, the principal policies are: (i) No land should be zoned for the provisi.on of new townships . i·n ·the strategy plan area. (ii) Because there are relatively few constraints to its growth, :PB.;Ynesville should be encouraged to further .develop as the ·major recre.ation and population centre ·within the planning ·. area. · (iii) ·Metung and Nungurner should be encou~aged·to develop as lower deni:iity townships, offering a smaller.· rang.e of facilities than Paynesville, but providing a different type of residential location and providing a focus for a proposed extensive area ··. of· ·~mall rural retreat and hobby farm blocks.· The Strategy Plan also identifies the need for three separate zones in rural·areas - namely a rural residential zone, and rural farming zone and.rural protection zone and recommends a .series of policies . designed to facilitate the effective management of land in those areas. As well .as these measures, a number of other policies will be required to facilitate the further development and use ·of.· the Lakes area as a tourist.and.recreation centre. These include: (i) ·The identification and protection by appr?priate statutory planning controls of the areas of scientific and historical interest. (ii) . The minimisation of pollution in streams entering the Lakes. (iii) The provision of sewerage at Paynesville, Raymond Island and Metting. (iv) The upgrading of the range of community facilities available in.the Lakes area. Given the significance of .the Gippsland Lakes to the whole of East Gippsland, implementation of thesemeasures t~ough statutory planning and man~ement controls should be seen as an integral component of an overall strategy for the future of the Region. · Coastal Resorts Apart froni the Gippsland Lakes, there are other ce.ntres along the East 39 / • Gippsla.nd Coast in Orbost Shire which seem likely to be subject to considerable pressure :for development or intensive recreational use. , It would seem important that early steps be taken to develop management strategies to ensure the continued long-term viability of these recreational resources. The nature of the management ~trategies required is likely to vary between locations according to the intensity (including seasonal variation) of use at each place, the· existing .scale and character of development, road access and availability of fadlities (eg. parking and change sheds), but will include factors such as control of .access, provision.of infrastructure (such as sewerag~, and rubbish disposal), protection of natural features and foreshore management. The Lake . . . Tyers to Cape Howe Planning scheme recently adopted by the Board which is to be administered by the Shire of Orbost provides a framework for the management strategies to be adopted in specific locations. Rural Subdivision The Gippsland Lakes Strategy Plan provides the basis for the effective management of rural lan~ use around the Gippsland Lakes. In other parts of the Region where significant pressure exists for the subdivision of rural land (e.g. around the towns of Sale, Bairnsdale, Bruthen and OmeoY·1t.will also be necessary to apply sound planning principles when consfdering proposals to subdivide even small areas of rural land. Guidelines relating to this matter have been de.veloped by the East Gippsiand Regional Planning Committee in their recen~ report on "Rural Land Use in East Gippsland". The application of these guidelines by municipalities will facilitate the effective planning of rural land ·use in the Region. 5.4 IMPROVING ACCESS TO COlVIlVIUNITY FACILITIES To overcome the existing feeling of isolation and lack of adequate access to community services experienced by residents of the remote areas of East Gippsland requires three different types of policies. Firstly, action might be taken to close certain of the gaps in the existing pattern of service provision summarised in Fig. 15 to provide a minimum level of service throughout the Region. Examples of such action might include the provision of a ·dental service in Orbost to serve the eastern half of the Region, and the development of an ambulance base at Cann River. Secondly, policies are required to overcome the feeling of isolation experienced by residents of the remote areas of the Region, both from 40 • other parts· of the Region and from Melbourne. Overcoming isolation · within the region might be achieved by introducing special concessions on telephone rentals and call charges for those persons living in · excess of a certain distance (say 50 km) from the major regional centres. Improving television reception and maintaining a viable regular air service between the region and.Melbourne would fall into the latter category. Thirdly, agencies providing specific services (e.g. unemployment ben~fits) might develop more flexible arrangements for providing information about services and administering policies in remote areas in recognition of their peculiar circumstances. It will be apparent that each of the above types of policy involves a difficult trade off between efficiency and equity considerations in the provision of services. Thus, for example, a decision to provide and maintain particular services in small remote centres of population would require additional capital and manpower services. Given the likelihood of continued restraints on the availability of such resources; the upgrading of those services may involve reductions in the resources· available to maintain and enhance the services available. in, for example, Sale and Bairnsdale. This in turn might reduce the capacity of those centres to provide higher order community services (e.g. specialist · medical services) to the Region as a whole. Considerations of economy and efficiency in service provision would, in most cases, require that most community services in East ~ippsland be. concentrated in the larger centres. However, because of the distance separating Sale and Bairnsdale from many par.ts of the Region, it is not possible to adopt a simple "hierarchy of service centres" approach to the rovision of services in East Gippsland·. · Thus it seems desirable first P . 'v . that Bairnsdale be developed as the major regional service centre (rather than the larger City of Sale) in recognition of the better acces.sibili ty of many parts of the Region to Bairnsdale compared with Sale. Second so that residents in isolated areas may· enjoy access to a minimum range of services, it would seem appropriate that one sub-regional service centre be developed to serve each of the major north-south highways in the Region (e.g. at Orbost, Omeo and Cann River). It is clear that the determination of resource allocation priorities will be a continuing dilemma in the development of policies in this area. It is important that solutions be worked out in close 41 consultation with residents of ~he region. The East Gippsland Family and Community Services Committee will need ~o play a critical role in this process of priorities determination. It is probably inevitable· that some degree of subsidisation will be involved in providing special services to people in remote areas (e.g. conee~sions on telephone rentals .and call charges). It needs to be borrie in mind, however, that · the number of people to whom such a concession would be available would probably be fewer than 4,000, so that the cost involved would be small. 5.5. PRIORITIES IN INFRASTRUCTURE PROVISION Ono ~jor:·way in which Governments may influence the character and pattern of change in a Region is through the pro\rision of p:t;iysical and social infrastructure - such as roads, wa~er supply, sewerage and community facilities. The identification of.· expenditure priori ties is a critical part of strategic planning, which has become even more important in recent years as the level of funds available to authorities responsible for providing such services has bee~ reduced (at least in real terms) in pursuit of economic policy objectives at the national and State levels. The aim of the strategic planning process is to ensure that the expenditure programmes of individual authorities are integrated into an overall strategy for the management and development of the region's resources. The determination of expenditure priorities is basically a choice process. Clearly all expenditure decisions will have to comply with appropriate technical efficiency guidelines. Similarly some expenditure decisions will be based on equity considerations - e.g. the desire to provide certain services to all population groups whatever their capacity to pay and wherever they might live. In many cases, however, there will be conflicts between equity ~nd efficiency considera. tions~ It is thus necessary to develop appropriate guidelines or criteria on.which to base decisions relating to infrastructure provision so that they are consistent with the overall strategy for.planning in the Region. Sewerage In its consideration of the Wo;-king Paper relating to Basic Services prepared as part of the Regional Study a Sub-Committee of the East Gippsland Regional Planning Committee suggested that the following criteria guide the allocation of funds for sewerage works in East Gippsland: (i) First priority should be accorded to providing sewerage to the 42 larger centres of population or those centres where substantial popu~atiori growth is antici'pated. (ii) .Second priority should be accorded to protecting the natural environment in those areas (e.g. the Gippsland Lakes and Coastal centres) which are subject to increasing use.by both the resident and visitor population. Thus,· as well as extending/upgrading the sewerage systems already established in the Region, particularly in }3airnsdale, the Sub-Committee suggested that sewerage works in the Region should be provided in the folloWi.ng settlements:- (i) Existing Major Urban Centres ;Heyf:i:eld Omeo Str.atford Rosedale· Brutheri (ii) Protection of Environment Me tung Paynesville Marlo Loch Sport . Mallacoota Seaspray Coongaila (Jove was also listed because of its.contribution to pollution of Gle·nmaggie Weir which is the source of water supply for the towns of Heyfield and Stratford. Water Supply ,, A similar.determination of priorities is required in the case of water supply. Here the relevant criteria might be (i) The need to provide adequate water supply to cater for anticipated growth in existing centres of population. (ii) ·The need to meet the water supply requirements ·of.new lndustries establishing iri the Region. (iii) The need to provide adequate water supply in coastal locations to meet the peak summer demand. Application of these criteria would indicate the following order of priority for water supply works in East Gippsland: (i) gllB.rantee water supply-in the City of Sale, (ii) extend existing water supply systems in Bairnsdale, and Heyfield before 1980 and Lakes Entrance before 1985. 43 (iii) ensure that water supply provision in coastal centres is adequate to meet peak summer demands. Roads Suggested criteria :for determining priori ti_es .tor expenditure on roads in the Region are: (i) ·The relative signi:ficance o:f the particular state highway or rural road in the economic and social li:fe o:f the Region. (ii) The relative scale o:f bene:fits accruing to the Region :from the upgrading o:f particular roads. (iii) The necessity to maintain a basic road network within the Region to maintain economic activity and to :facilitate access to services. There is little doubt that the roadwork which is likely to have the greatest continuing signi:ficance :for the :future·o:f East Gippsland is the progre·ssi ve upgrading o:f the Princes Highway link between the Region and Melbourne. It is noted that the Gippsland Transport Region Conshltative Cormnittee, appointed in 1975 to advise the Minister :for Transport on the • improvement of transport :facilities and services within that region has consistently expressed the view that the Prince~ Highway East should be accorded top priority in programmes to upgrade roads in the Central and East Gipp~land Regions. There is also a need to clari:fy priorities for the upgrading o:f other State Highways and rural roads in the.Region. One particular matter relates to the upgrading of the Omeo Highway. Municipalities in East Gippsland (and in the adjacent North Eastern Region) have waged a concerted campaign in recent years to have this highway upgraded to provide an all weather link between East Gippsland and the North East. Arguments advanced in support ~:f this project have included its potential role in stimulating markets :for East Gippsland produce in the North-East o:f the State, particularly as a result of the development o:f the Albury~Wodon~a growth centre, its role in developing tourism in East Gippsland, and in assisting decentralisation in Victoria generally. It is important however that the priority to be accorded the upgrading of this Highway.be assessed in the widest possible context. Thus it needs to be queried :for example whether the upgrading o:f this road would contribute as much to the future development of tourism in East Gipp_sland as would the improvement of other 44 road linka between the Region and mnjor established or potential tourist markets (e.g. Canberra). A similar ordering of priorities will be required for the maintenance and upgrading of rural roads. It appears unlikely that the capacity of milliicipalities to upgrade such roads willbe increased in the immediate future, either through a greater all_ocation of funds from Commonwealth and/or State sources'or from increased revenue raising themselves. There is a need therefore to give greater attention to the determination of an order of priority for the upgrading of such roads so that available funds can be used to maximum effect. 5.6 INTEGRATION OF PROGRAMMES AND POLICIES Strategic planning stresses the need for Government agencies at all levels to pursue common goals and objectives as far as possible, so that the benefit to the community of individual policies and programmes may be maximised. Such an approach recognizes that in many cases the realization of even a single strategic planning goal may require simul taneous action by several Government agencies. This is clearly illus- -trated in Table 7 which relates the various policies and programmes outlined in Sections 5.1 - 5.5 to the strategic planning goals for East Gippsland_recornmended in Chapter 4. In the case of tourism and recreation, Table 7 shows that the effective promotion of East Gippsland as a major tourist~ recreation and retirement centre will require specific policy action by agencies involved in tourist promotion, transport, land use management, environmentai protection and the provision of water supply and sewerage. Similarly the table also shows that ~ome policy actions (e.g. the upgrading of the Princes Highway) .will assist in realising several s~rategic planning goals. Analysis along these lines also provides a basis for determining expenditure priorities between different sectors of Government activity · and between different locations within the Region. Thus it is clear that eicpenditure-on, for eXa.mple, sewerage, environmental- protection measures and the provision of community services in centres around the Gippsland Lakes should rate a high overall priority because such expenditure will contribute to the realisation of three of the four principal strategic planning goals. Similarly giv.en that it is important that Sale and Bairnsdale are likely to continue as the major service centres within the Region, expenditures designe·d to maintain and enhance the capacity of those centres to accommodate continued growth should likewise receive priority. L - • Table 7 - Summary of Recommended Planning Strategy for East Gippsland Major Planning Issue Strategic Planning Goal/s Recommended policies Related Poli.cies/ (See Sect.ion 4.3) Programmes.(particula:rly intrastructure provision) . .· . ·Employment and Economic Maintenance of emploiment in Marketing programmes for Tourist and Recreation Opportunities existing industries. · existing major products. Development. Development of fo~est Promotion of additional employ · Upgrading Princes Highway. ment opportunities. woodlot and forestry schet1es. Promotion tertiary employ- men. t. Development of Tourism and Promotion of the Region as a Marketing programme. Implementation of Gippsland Recreation major tourist, recreation and Lakes sub-regionai strategy retirement centre. Management strategies for Gippsland Lakes, ·Coastal plan. Protection of sites resorts and forest areas. of sci entific and historical in Upgrading Princes Highway terest. and Canberra/East Gippsland Provision of water supply, link. sewerage and other services to meet seasonal p~aks in specific locations. ~ Protection and Management. Effective·protectibn and rria.riage Management.of forests for Provision of sewerage in of Natural Resources m~nt of significant nattiral multiple uses. · looations subject to major resources of the region to fao · Implementation of Gippslalld environmep tal imp~ct. ili tate multiple. uses in longer Lakes Sub-Regional Strategy terms. Plan. Imp1emen tati on of Lake Tyers to Cape Howe Planning . Scheme. Application of Guidelines for rural subdivision. Protection of sites of scientific and historical interest. ... • Table 7 - Summary of.Recommended Plarm~ Strategy for East Gippsland (Cont.) . . . . Major Plannirig Issue Strategic Plaru;iing Goal/s Recommended Policies Relat_ed Poli.ci_es I (See Section 4.3) Programmes (particularly .infrastructure provision. Access to Community Services Improvement of Accessibility. of Further development of Sale Maintenance / upgrading all residents, particularly in and Bairnsdale as major reg of State Highways and remote rural areas. ional· service centres. rural roads. Development of Sub-regional centres at Orbost, Cann River. · Concessions .for telephone . charges. Maintenance of viable air service. Flexible arrangements in administration.: 47 It is important to recognize that many of the policies and programmes reconnnended above .,.;ill affect the component parts of the Region in ·different ways. In some cases, these different sub-regional impacts are .the ineyitable consequence of wider economic and social factors . which are not readily susceptible to change .by policy action (a~ in" the case of the growth generated in Sale by further development of the oil and gas resources of Bass Streit). Other policies will con sciously seek to promote particular sorts of change in specific locations, either because of .the suitability of an area for certain forms of development (e.g. tourism and recreation in the Gippsland Lakes), or because wider community goals (such as equity in the provision of ser\Tices) are being pursued (e.g. the recommended development of sub regional service centres at Cann River, Orbost and Omeo). The aim of strategic planning is to develop a mix of policies and programmes which 'will E;msure that as many of the goals and objectives of the community as possible are realised; while ensuring that overall effectiveness of resource allocation is not reduced. " 48 CHAPTER 6 NEXT STEPS IN STRATEGIC PLANNING IN EAST GIPPSLAND • 6.1 FORMATION OF REGIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITY An important element in the strategic planning process in East Gippsland will be the preparation of a regional strategy plan for the Region. Such a strategy plan would be design7d to encourage . State and municipal·agencies to cO-ordinate their activities so that they reflect common goals and objectives for East Gippsland's future. If such a strategy plan is to make its fullest contribution to planning in East Gippsland, it is desirable that a regional planning organisation with appropriate statutory powers and respons ibilities be established in the Region. Whilst the East Gippsland Regional Planning Committee has contributed much to the development of strategic planning in East Gippsland, it lacks the statutory authority necessary to develop and implement ~ffectively a regional strategy plan. It is considered therefore that now is the time to examine the most appropriate structure for a regional planning authority for East Gippsland which would take account of the particular needs of the region and the aspirations of.the regional community. 6.2 FOLLOW UP TO REGIONAL STUDY By outlining the general nature of the strategies and policies required in a number of sectors of Government activity in East Gippsland, this Final Report provides the basis for the preparation of a regional strategy plan. As illustrated in Figure 2 aqove, the regional study acts as a iink between the broad evaluation Of the Region's planning problems contained in the Interim Regional Planri.ing Statement and the precise specification of programmes which would need to be incorporated into a regional strategy plan • . In the preparation of that strategy plan, it· Will be necessary for the analysis and evaluation incorporated into the: regional study and the strategies.and policies in this Report to be further refined and developed. · This will require two main types of follow up action. Regional Consultation Firstly this Final Report will need to be discussed widely within East , Gippsland and at State Government level. The purpose of that discussion will be to verify that the strategies and policies. are realistic, in the light of the aspirations and needs of the East Gippsland community and the resources available at the State and local levels. Particular J 49 " attention will need to be focussed on whether the East Gippsland ... community agrees with the broad priori ties .. for action. It would seem desirable that this consultation process should continue for several months, so that as wide a range of views as possible is obtained on the issues canvassed. Issues Requiring Additional Investigation As in any major study progra.nnne, the East Gippsland Regional Study has identified a number of issues in respect of which more detailed analysis and investigation is required before adequate .strategic plans and policies for East Gippsland can be formulated. These matters include:- · (i) The identification of priorities for the maintenance and ··.upgrading of rural roads ih the Regipn. - (ii) The ident~fication of those physical and man made features in the Region which should be subject to preservation in their natural or existing State. (iii) ·'.Re-evaluation of the economic and demographic analysis in the light of the .more detailed data from the 1976 census • which is expected to become available ~rom early 1979 • (iv)· The clarification of priorities for the provision of community services in isolated areas. It is important to point out that it is not necessary to await the form ation of a Regional Planning Authority before commencing this third stage·of the strategic planning process. The·East Gippsland Regior,i.al Planning Coimnittee in its present form can follow up work required to translate the conclusions and recommendations of the regional study into a strategy 'plan. This should be done in conjunction with other forums for regional consultation (e.g. the Family and Community Services Committee) as appropriate. In this way del8i}" in the preparation of a regional strategy plan will be minimised. Once established a Regional Planning Authority could use the analysis included in the Regional Study and the follow up work to proceed quickly to.the finalisation.of a strategy plan. 6.3· PLANNING CO-ORDINATION , There currently exist in East Gippsland a number of administrative mechanisms designed to facilitate co-ordination of planning in different sectors (e.g. the Gippsland Transport Consultative Committee and the East 50 ... Gippsland Family and Community Services Co~ttee). The Regional Planning Committee also acts as a focus for co-operation and con. sultation between municipalities and the State Government agencies which have been granted observer status on the Committee. Formation of a regional planning authority which included representatives of major State Government resource planning: agencies with significant ...... involyement in Tu.st Gippsland (e.g. Forests Comlilission, Department of. Agricuiture,. . . Ministry of Conserv~tion, . Country. Roads·. .Board) . . . . would greatly facilitate the. effective ~~ordinat:i.on of pl~ing in East Gippsland. To facilitate the effective integration of different aspects of planning in the region it woUld seem useful for the co-ordination committ~es already established for different .sectors (e.g. transport, education and family and community services) to permit each other to have at least reciprocal observer status on each committee. ' .. APPENDIX A - .. EAST GIPPSLAND REGIONAL STUDY WORKING PAPERS NO. 1 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC FACTORS (December 1976) NO. 2 . INTER.GRATING SOCIAL AND STRATEGIC PLANNING (February 1977) 'NO. 3 TOURISM (April 1977) • '' NO. 4 TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATION . (July 1977) .NO. 5 BASIC SERVICES (August 1977) NO. 6 ACCESSIBILITY TO SERVICES (September 1977) NO. 7 · STUDENTS INTENTIONS SURVEY (October 1977)