ReportNo. 2506-BAR EconomicMemorandum on Barbados Public Disclosure Authorized

May 7, 1979 Latin America and the CaribbeanRegional Office

FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY U Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Documentof the WorldBank Public Disclosure Authorized

Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be usedby recipients only in the performanceof theirofficial duties. Its contentsmay not otherwisebe disclosed without WotIdBank authorization. CURREN'CYEQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit: Until November, 1973 : Eastern Caribbean Dollar (EC$) Since December, 1973 : Barbados Dollar (BDS$)

December, 1971

US$1.00 = EC$1.975 EC$1.00 US$0.506

Since July, 1975

US$1.00 = BDS$2.00

BDS$1.O0 - uS$0.50 FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY

This report is based on the findings of a mission to Barbados in February 1979, composed of Arturo Meyer (Chief of Mission), Constance Bernard (Economist), Peter Kendell (Tourism Specialist) and Sultan Ahmad (National Accounts).

This document has a restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

MAP

COUNTRYDATA

SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS ...... i-v

Economic Backgound ...... 1 Economic Development in 1978 ...... 4 Development Issues ...... 7 Output and Investment ...... 8 Public Sector Investment and Financing ...... 9 Balance of Payments Outlook ...... 13

ANNEX I: RECENT FISCAL MEASURES ...... 15

ANNEX II: GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST ...... 17

ANNEX III: TOURISM SECTOR REVIEW ...... 88

STATISTICAL APPENDIX ...... 106

IBRD 11044 eV 70 MAY 1974 North Poirt ATLANrIC ,,,ss, v 8 r O~~~~~~CE,4QC~~~AN~ N ~~~~ 0 400

P~~~~~ORNER C O~~~~~~~~OAiINICAN MILES 2.

WT SLu C Y < v JAMAICA

Coribbean Sea VA

C U t v 0 _ PAMMA ( / 2 a lo-PANAM 101-

lb booodfft~hooo -o~P do.Wo EPLANE MI*~~~~~~~~~~~~~kpino.wb~o o' o.~ptA, by tbo

. I5T.WN S O ST.T H A MagEdR PInC

ALt~~~~~~~M

BRlGETCENE F-KON~~~~~~

AGRICULTURALLAND USEPLAN

_ - Arable landi. suitabe foar, nmecha-nical cultivationl * _HATtNSugatrfactories r I.-] Arable hrid unsutablefar mechanical cultivatian - Beaches Lu-ll- Pasture lanrdwith limited irrigtion - irrigactionboundairies l ] MareT gardenintgwith ,,mitedi rrigation Mao>rroeas

Ovil/G@iesand steep land suitable for forest, fruit, - -Parish boundaries citrus and bataOa, windbreak trees. .- Main buJilt-upareais

A Zonescapatble of approximately eqiualsugair - -Intrnational boundaries Yieids (rot defined o 2 3 4 5 2 ~ ~I ,,I I ,,, , i I ,. i BRIDGETO ...... MILE

Page 1 of 2 pages

COUNTRYDATA - BARBADOS

AREA 2 POPULATION DENSITY 431 km 0.250 million (end 1977) 530 psr km Rate of Growth: 0.4% (froml960 to 1977) 958 per km2 of arable land

POPULATIONCHARACTERISTICS (1977) NEALTH (year) Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 17.5 Population per physician 1468.0 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 8.6 Population per hospital bed 116.3 Infant Mortali-y (per 1,000 live births) 24.0

INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1970) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP t 1970) % of national income, highsst quintlle 43.6 % owned by top 107.of owners 95.0 lowest quintile 5.0 % owned by smallest 10% of owners 0.5

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1970) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (1970) % of population - urban 60.0 % of population urban 85.0 - rural 600-rural 4.

NUTRITION EDUCATION (1970) Calorie intake as % of requirements *. Adult literacy rate X 97.0 Per capita protein intake *- Primary school enrollment7. 100.0 11 GNP PER CAPITA in 1977 : US $1760

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1978 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (7. constant prices)

US $ MIn. % 1974-77 1976

GNP at Market Pr4-es 497.6 100.0 1.7 2.7 Gross Domestic Investment 112.1 22.5 -3.6 3.2 Gross National Saving 98.7 19.8 Current Account Balance -13.4 2.7 Exports of Goods, NFS 335.4 67.4 0.9 14.5 Imports of Goods, NFS 361.3 72.6 -1.3 3.9

OUTPUT, LABORFORCE AND PRODUCTIVITYIN 1976

Value Added Labor Force V. A. Per Worker US-$ Mln. % Thousands % US $ %

Agriculture 39.6 11.1 8.9 9.8 4449 113.3 Industry 72.7 20.4 22.4 24.6 3246 82.7 Services 244.9 68.5 59.7 65.6 4102 104.5 Total/Average 357.2 100.0 91.0 100.0 3925 100.0

GOVERNMENTFINANCE General Government Central Government (BDS$ Mln.-) 7 of GDP (BDS$ Mln.) % of GDP 1978/9 1978/9 1974/5-1978/9 1978/79 1978/9 1974/5-1978/9

Current Receipts 329.5 32.8 29.8 296.7 29.5 26.8 Current Expenditure 274.9 27.3 26.1 270.9 26.9 25.6 Current Surplus 54.6 5.4 3.7 25.8 2.6 1.2 Capital Expenditures 67.3 6.7 7.5 64.5 6.4 7.3 External Assistance (net) 25.6 2.5 1.7 25.6 2.5 1.7

1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1977 market prices, calculated by the same conversion techniqueas the 1978 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table are at the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covered.

not available not applicable Page 2 of 2 pages

COUNTRYDATA - BARBADOS

MONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 OMillion BDS$ outstandinigend period)

Money and Quasi Money 242.2 290.3 331.1 366.5 416.9 480.8 Bank Credit to Public Sector -23.7 27.2 20.1 51.5 106.3 74,5 Bank Credit to Private Sector 254.8 258.3 285.0 323.2 352.7 389.9

(Percentages or Index Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP 59.6 45.5 41.8 46.1 47.5 47.8 General Price Index (1963 - 100) 72.0 100.0 120.3 126.3 136.8 149.9 Annual percentage changes in: General Price Index - 38.9 20.3 5.0 8.3 9.5 Bank credit to Public Sector - -214.8 -26.1 156.2 106.4 -29.9 Bank credit to Private Sector - 1.4 10.3 13.4 9.1 10.5

BAlANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE ExPORTS (AVEURGE (1972-77) US $ Mln % Sugar 25.0 40.9 1976 1977 1978 Molasses 3.7 6.0 Other Primary 4.3 7.0 (us$ Million) Rum 2.4 3.9 Chemicals 2.5 4.1 Exports of Goods, NFS 221.9 273.1 335.4 Clothing 10.8 17.7 Imports of Goods, NFS 281.3 319.4 361.3 Electrical Components 4.9 8.0 Resource Gap (-deficit) - 46.3 - 25.9 All other commodities 7.6 12.4 Total 61.2 100.0 Interest on M< Public Debt - 1.9 - 1.9 - 3.2 Other Factor Payments (net) 9.0 4.6 - 1.8 sXTEEUUL DEBT. DECEMBER 31. 1978 Current Transfers (net) 11.6 11.6 17.5 Balance on Current Account - 40.7 - 34.3 - 13.4 US $ Mln

Net Public Disbursements 6.3 21.1 13.2 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 58.5 (Gross Disbursements) (8.1) 28.1) (17.6) Non-Guaranteed Private Debt ,. (Amortization) (-178) M.0) (-4.4) Total outstanding & Disbursed ...

Other Capital 17.1 19.5 31.0 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1978

Increase in Reserves -17.3 s q 30.8 Public Debt. incl. guaranteed 2.3 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt Total outstanding & Disbursed

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING, (Dec. 31, 1978) (Million US $):

Dgermbpr - 1971 IBRD IDA US $ 1.00 - EC$ 1.975 EC$ 1.00 - US $ 0.506 Outstanding & Disbursed - Undisbursed 9.0 Since July 1975 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 9.0 US $ 1.00 - BDS$ 2.00 BDS$ 1.00 = US $ 0.50

1/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.

not available

not applicable

April 12, 1979 EPD/PRD SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. Barbados' developmenthas been based on fruitful cooperationbetween the public and the private sector, in a frameworkof close links with the world economy. High average rates of economic growth have resulted; the open- ness of its economy, however, together with its narrow resource base, has made Barbados highly vulnerable to swings in internationalprices and demand. ii. Economic fluctuationsin the 1970s have followed international events closely. The 1973-75world recession succeededa decline in real investment that began early in the decade, contributingto negative economic growth in 1975. Although output started to recover in 1976, when the world economy improved, serious weaknesses in the balance of payments and public finances developed as sugar prices plummetedand compensatorymeasures were not taken promptly. iii. Although all major sectors recorded real increases in 1976, the strongest impetus to GDP growth of 5% came from manufacturing,construction and agriculture. Real GDP growth slowed down to 1.7% in 1977 as the Government started to implementcorrective measures; sugar production and tourism were the leading sectors. GDP acceleratedin 1978, reaching a rate of 4.3%. While tourism was the major contributorto this acceleration,export-oriented manu- facturing industries provided additional impetus to overall growth and to foreign exchange earnings. iv. Unemploymentin Barbados has been a grave problem, constitutinga drain on the country's resourcesand a social irritant. The unemploymentrate peaked at 22% towards the end of 1975. It declined thereafter,as the economic recovery gathered momentum, and by the first quarter of 1978 stood at 12%. v. Sharp increases in internationalprices associated with energy cost increases triggeredunprecedented rates of inflationin Barbados;annual average increases in the retail price index amounted to almost 40% in 1974 and about 20% in 1975. The rate of domestic inflationin 1976 fell as drama- tically as it had risen over the preceding two years: retail prices increased only 5%. A buildup of inflationarypressures produced an increase in domestic prices of 8.3% for 1977 and 9.5% for 1978. vi. Public sector finances were weak during the mid-1970s. With the exception of fiscal 1975/76, when the sudden influx of earnings from sugar contributed to a windfall surplus of about 5.4% of GDP, public sector savings averaged only about 2.3% of GDP during 1974/75-1977/78. These low levels of public sector savings coincided with a rapid expansion in the public sector's investment program: between 1974/75 and 1977/78, capital spending rose from 5.5% to over 10% of GDP. Net external project-relatedinflows also rose rapidly, financingapproximately 20% of capital spending. The shortage of public sector savings, however, forced the Government to rely heavily on the central and commercial banks to finance the rest of its investmentprogram. - ii - vii. In recognitionof the growing precariousnessof public sector finances, the Government took a number of fiscal measures in 1977 and 1978. Tax rates on the consumptionof luxury goods as well as personal and corporate income tax rates were increased. The ceiling on social security taxes more than doubled. The Government also contained the growth of current expenditures in 1978/79 to only about 11% in nominal terms. As a consequenceof these measures and the impact of the ebullient tourism and manufacturingsectors on income, consumptionand import taxes, public sector savings registered an estimated 5.4% of GDP in 1978/79. viii. In reflectionof governmentefforts to control total expenditure, the near completion of several large projects and delays and difficultiesin project preparationand implementation,public sector capital spending fell sharply in 1978/79, dropping by 25%. Public sector savings were adequate to finance over 80% of the reduced level of investment. Net project-related external inflows were adequate to finance most of the remainder. A BDS$20 million Eurodollar loan, together with modest levels of borrowing from non- banking domestic sources permitted the government to reduce net credit from the banking system substantially. ix. Barbados' balance of payments has shown a deficit in the current account in every year of the current decade. A major balance of payments' weakness originated in 1973 and 1974, as a consequenceof substantiallyin- creased costs of fuels and foodstuffs,but did not become apparent until 1975 and 1976, when tourism declined markedly and the internationalprice of sugar collapsed. As a result, the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments increased from US$15 million in 1974 to US$41 million in 1976. Inter- national reserves reached critically low levels, covering less than one month's imports by the end of 1976. The balance of payments improved substantiallyin 1977 and 1978: foreign exchange earnings increased by about 23% during each of these years, mostly as a result of the revival of tourism, but also due to continued growth of nonsugar exports. On the other hand, the value of imports increased by only 13% in both years, reflecting the slowdown of growth in 1977, and the impact of restrictionson imports of consumer durables and the limita- tion of consumer credit in 1978. Consequently,the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments declined to US$34 million in 1977, and US$13 million in 1978. x. External borrowing,both by the private and public sector, permitted the level of internationalreserves to increase by US$31 million in 1978. Net foreign assets thus attained a level of US$55 million, still covering less than two months of imports. Although this constitutesan improvementin the reserve position of the country, such a level of foreign assets cannot yet be deemed adequate for a small, open economy like that of Barbados. xi. Barbados'medium term prospects depend largelyupon the continued developmentof export oriented economic activities,especially tourism and manufacturingindustries. Growth of tourism may proceed rapidly for some time; over the long term, however, physical limitationsto the expansionof this activity are bound to become relevant as a result of the island's small size and high population density. Thus, there is a need to diversify the sources - iii - of economic growth. In this context, the outlook for keeping up the expansion of manufacturing output, exports and employment is highly favorable. The various incentives offered constitute an attractive package, which jointly with the country's long tradition of stable institutions and favorable invest- ment climate, have generated strong interest on the part of potential investors, both foreign and domestic. There may be appreciable scope for efficient import substitution in the agricultural sector. The possible introduction of irrigation agriculture would represent a breakthrough from a sectoral viewpoint, reducing the food import bill and strengthening the linkages between the tourism sector and the domestic economy, a long avowed policy objective. xii. The Barbadian economy can grow at an average rate of slightly over 5% per annum, between 1979 and 1983. It is anticipated that real GDP will grow about 6% in 1979, as a consequence of continued growth of manufacturing and tourism, and of favorable weather conditions for sugar. The growth rate is likely to decline in 1980, to the extent that sugar production recedes to normal levels. Thereafter, growth rates marginally exceeding 5% can be attained. This growth path, however, will require an average investment effort of almost 24% of GDP, with the investment rate growing through time and reaching nearly 25% in 1983. xiii. Barbados' rate of inflation has exceeded that of her trading partners during some recent years. Although, for the time being, this does not appear to have had an impact on the international competitiveness of manufactured exports, to the extent that these go on acquiring greater relative importance, Barbados' balance of payments will become more sensitive to inflation rate differentials. This issue should receive the continuous and highest priority attention of the country's policy-makers during the next few years, in order to avoid the emergence of costly bottlenecks in Barbados' export-oriented development process. xiv. A formal four-year public sector investment program and financing plan is presently being prepared by the Government. The emphasis on the directly productive sectors is expected to increase and efforts to facilitate private sector activity through the provision of required infrastructure will continue. The Government has given priority to a number of agricultural projects, some with substantial land reform and irrigation components. In tourism, construction of the BDS$35 million Holiday Villages designed to tap local entrepreneurial talent, should begin this year. The investment program also provides for the construction of industrial estates which, coupled with the Government's incentive program, should encourage continued private invest- ment in manufacturing. In addition, investment in energy and internal trans- portation is planned as well as improved health facilities and low-income housing development. Mission estimates indicate that public sector investment over the next five years will cost some BDS$700 million in current prices, rising from 7.5% of GDP in 1979 to about 9.3% in 1983. Given continued prudent fiscal policy, public sector savings should be adequate to finance approximately two- thirds of the total. Net external borrowing should be adequate to finance the remaining third. Continued modest levels of borrowing from the domestic private sector would permit the Government to reduce its outstanding debt to the banking system somewhat by the end of the period. - iv - xv. In order to maintain and gradually improve the present level of public sector savings as a percentage of GDP, the Governmentwill have to exercise continued care. Given the existing high level of current revenues (30% of GDP in 1978/79),there is little room for major additional tax measures as a significant source of increasedrevenues. In fact, the personal income tax burden is already so high that it may well be exacerbatingBarbados' existing difficultiesin retaining scarce managerial,entrepreneurial and skilled manpower. Although considerableroom does exist for improving tax administration,fiscal managementover the next five years will have to focus on continued control of current expendituregrowth. The share of public sector consumptionin real GDP should decline from about 16% in 1978 to 14% in 1983. To accomplish this target, current expendituregrowth should be limited to an average nominal increase of about 12% annually over the next five years. xvi. Recent fiscal measures, together with the healthy growth performance of the economy, have, for the time being, relieved the previous savings con- straint to public sector investment. If the public sector investmentprogram is to be undertakensuccessfully, however, constraintsto all stages of' project preparationand executionwill need to be alleviated. The most serious difficultyarises from the need to increase the availabilityof managerial skills. Decreasingreal salaries in the civil service at the higher levels-- a trend which has intensifiedwith each wage adjustment in the past five years--haveexacerbated the situationwith respect to the public sector. The Government has recently taken a number of steps to strengthen project planning and implementation. Despite these efforts, technical assistance,particularly in the area of project preparationand management and the training of local counterpart staff, will continue to be a high priority in the Government's investmentprogram. xvii. The value of exports of goods and nonfactor services is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 15% during the period 1978-83, while imports of goods and nonfactor services are projected to grow at an average rate of 14%. The deficit of the current account of the balance of payments would decline, reaching US$11 million, or about 1% of GDP, in 1983. The Governmentneeds to be able to rely on a package of contingencymeasures that could be applied rapidly in case of balance of payments difficulties;these should include plans for temporary increases in tax revenues, orderly reduc- tions in government expenditures,and complementarymonetary measures. Barbados' balance of payments policy should also seek to increase foreign exchange reserves, so that these eventuallycover nearly four months' imports of goods. Over the five-year period covered by the projections,international reserves should increase by US$140million, thus reaching a level of US$195 million by the end of 1983, or approximately3.5 months of imports. xviii. The projected deficits in the current account and the need to increase internationalreserves imply a capital inflow of US$215 million during the five-yearperiod covered by the program. Approximatelyhalf of this is expected to be available through private financing,while the remainder is expected to flow through the public sector, largely through project- related financing. Gross official capital inflows are projected to increase v from an estimatedUS$20 million in 1979 to about US$36 million at the end of the period, with the total for the period estimatedat over US$152 million. Of this amount, about 30% representsproject financingwhich has already been committed. xix. The projected inflows of official capital would increase the public and publicly guaranteed external debt to US$172 million (less than 17% of GDP), by the end of 1983; the correspondingdebt service ratio would represent 2% of foreign exchange earnings in that year. In the light of this moderate debt burden and favorable growth prospects,Barbados may be regarded as credit- worthy for loans on conventionalterms for the estimatedexternal capital requirementsfor the public sector investmentprogram.

Economic Background

1. Barbados' development has been based on fruitful cooperation between the public and the private sector, in a framework of close links with the world economy. High average rates of economic growth have resulted; the openness of its economy, however, together with its narrow resource base, has made Barbados highly vulnerable to swings in international prices and demand.

2. Economic fluctuations in the 1970's have followed international events closely. The 1973-75 world recession succeeded a decline in real investment that began early in the decade, contributing to negative economic growth in 1975. Although output started to recover in 1976, when the world economy improved, serious weaknesses in the balance of payments and public finances developed as sugar prices plummeted and compensatory measures were not taken promptly.

3. Although all major sectors recorded real increases in 1976, the strongest impetus to GDP growth of 5% came from manufacturing, construction and agriculture which grew by 18%, 13% and 6.5% respectively. Manufacturing activity quickened pace significantly, partly as a result of increased util- ization of idle capacity, and in part because of the investment promotion efforts of the Barbados Industrial Development Corporation. 1/ Real GDP growth slowed down to 1.7% in 1977 as the government started to implement corrective measures. Sugar production, and tourism, both growing by 16% were the major contributors to growth, while non-sugar agriculture and manufacturing industry declined markedly, by 15% and 11% respectively, the former as a result of unfavorable weather conditions, and the latter in response to the slackening of both domestic and external demand.

4. Unemployment in Barbados has been a grave problem, constituting a drain on the country's resources and a social irritant. The unemployment rate peaked at 22% towards the end of 1975. It declined thereafter, as the economic recovery gathered momentum, and by the end of 1977 stood at 16%. At the same time, the country has suffered from shortages in certain key skills. Population growth has traditionally been substantially lower than 1% per annum because of a successful family planning program and high migra- tion to seek employment opportunities elsewhere. In recent years, entry restrictions in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada have curtailed emigration and the rate of population growth has increased.

5. Sharp increases in international prices associated with rising energy costs triggered unprecendented rates of inflation in Barbados in 1974 and 1975. Annual average increases in the retail price index amounted

1/ A description of the various incentives currently existing in Barbados can be found in Industrial Investment Incentives in the Caribbean (white cover), March 1979. - 2 - to almost 40% in 1974 and about 20% in 1975. These increases in the cost of living gave rise to demands for large wage increases in both the public and private sectors. The dramatic rise in internationalsugar prices in 1974-75 facilitatedthe granting of large wage increases to sugar workers, which rapidly spread throughoutthe economy as the unions in other sectors demanded equal treatment. At the same time, public sector wage increases and employmentexpansion increased the public payroll, while the money sup- ply and domestic credit were allowed to expand rapidly. The combinationof buoyant consumer demand stimulatedby wage gains and sluggish business activ- ity attributableto the prevailing climate of uncertaintyin the world economy resulted in an excessivebuild-up of consumer credit. These events led to an excess of aggregate demand which further fueled domestic inflation and led to increased imports.

6. The rate of domestic inflation in 1976 fell as dramaticallyas it had risen over the preceding two years: retail prices increased only 5%. This decline in inflationarypressures commenced in the latter part of 1975 when the Barbadian dollar was fixed at US$.50 (ending a 350-year link with sterling). Lower inflation rates in the US and a declining pound dampened import price inflationsignificantly. Reinforcingthis price development were declining internationalfood and raw material prices and greater price stability in fuel and finished-productmarkets.

7. Several factors contributedto an inflationarybuild-up producing an increase in domestic prices of 8.3% for 1977. These factors were (i) the sizeable increase in public sector wages (awarded in 1976 under a two-year agreement)and transfer payments to individuals;(ii) the impact of drought on food prices in June and July; and (iii) rising import prices. Furthermore, the more stringentmeasures adopted by the Central Bank to keep imports under control were not adequatelysupported by restrictivefiscal policy. This led to excessive aggregate demand growth which further reinforceddomestic inflation.

8. Public sector finances continued to be weak in the mid-1970s. Excluding 1975/76, the year in which the impact of the increase in sugar prices was felt, public sector savings averaged only about 2.3% of GDP. The low level of savings largely reflected the lacklusterperformance of the Central Government,which accounts for 98% of public sector expenditures.

9. With the exception of 1975/76, budgetary savings were marginal or negative during 1974/75 -1977/78. During this period, current revenues grew rapidly, averaging 15% nominal growth and rising from 25 to over 28% of GDP, in reflectionof an array of tax measures and economic growth during 1976 and 1977. Current expenditures,however, grew even faster, averaging over 16% nominal growth, as a result of generous civil servant wage increasesin 1973/74 and again in 1976/77,a rising level of subsidies for most public services, and the rapid rise of welfare expenditures(which increased by an annual average of over 20% during the period). - 3 -

10. Rather than budgetary savings, the single most important source of public sector savings in the past has been surpluses generatedby the National InsuranceBoard. Contributionsto the NIB grew relatively slowly, at an annual rate of about 12%, because low, fixed salary ceilings on social security taxes dampened the impact of wage hikes in both the pub- lic and private sectors during 1974/75 - 1977/78. As contributorsbecame eligible to receive benefits,however, payments rose quite rapidly (32% average annual increase during 1974-77),although the excess of receipts over expenditureremained considerable. As a consequence,the current sur- plus of the NIC fell slightly as a percentage of GDP over the period.

11. With a few exceptions the departmentaland non-financialpublic enterprisesrequired increasing levels of subsidiesfor current operations during 1974/75- 1977/78. The most expensivewas the Transport Board, which generated a loss of BDS$3.4 million 1977/78. Its financialdifficulties largely reflected low tariffs and, to some extent, inefficienciesin operation. The Housing Corporationand the Waterworks Department generatedcurrent losses during the period, due to difficultiesin collectionand unrealisticpricing policies.As a consequenceof the weak current position of the public companies, during 1974/75- 1977/78 they relied almost entirely on the Central Government for the financingof investment.

12. The low levels of public sector savings coincided with a rapid ex- pansion in the public sector's investment program. Between 1974/75 and 1977/ 78, capital spending rose from 5.4% to over 10% of GDP, as the Government attempted to provide a frameworkfor the growth of the industrial,tourism and agriculturesectors and to improve the quality of life in Barbados through the developmentof economic and social infrastructure. Net external project related inflowsalso rose rapidly, financingapproximately 20% of capital spending during the period. The shortage of public sector savings, however, forced the Government to rely heavily on the Central and commercialbanks to finance its investment program.

13. Barbados' balance of payments has shown a deficit in the current account in every year of the current decade. A major balance of payments weakness originated in 1973 and 1974, although it did not become apparent until later. In those years imports of goods and nonfactor services regis- tered increases of 20% and 23% respectively. These increases reflected the substantiallyincreased costs of neessary imports (fuels and foodstuffs). During these two years the value of exports of goods and nonfactor services also increasedrapidly, owing primarilyto the rise in sugar prices and strong tourism growth. Then, in 1975, import growth moderated to 9.0% as import prices declined and as the Governmentrestrained consumer credit. Despite the culmination of the sugar price increase in mid 1975, exports receipts rose by only 4.4% as tourist expendituresfell by about 20%. As a consequenceof these developments,the current account deficit increased - 4 - from US$15 million in 1974 to US$29 million in 1975 or, relative to GDP, from 4.9% to 7.3%.1/ In 1976, the current account balance deteriorated further as the precipitousdrop in sugar prices that began in the latter part of 1975 and hesitant tourism growth resulted in invariantexports proceeds. This, combined with an 8.9% expansion of imports, boosted the current account deficit to US$41 million (10% of GDP). The level of internationalreserves decreased to critically low levels, and by year's end they covered less than a month's imports.

14. In 1977 the deficit in the current account of the balance of pay- ments decreased but continued to be large. Export earnings increased23%, mostly caused by a revival of tourism, but also in response to continued growth of non-sugar exports. In reflectionof the slowdown in growth and the impact of import restrictionson consumer durables and consumer credit, imports of goods and nonfactor services increased by only 13%. The current account deficit consequentlydeclined to US$34 million, or 7.8% of GDP. In- ternationalborrowing was adequate to finance the reduced current account deficit and to permit the doubling of internationalreserves. Nevertheless, these continued to represent a dangerouslythin fraction of imports.

Economic Developmentsin 1978

15. Economic developmentsin 1978 included an increase in the rate of growth of output, a substantialdecline in the size of the balance of pay- ments deficit, and a considerableimprovement of public sector finances. The inflationrate, on the other hand, exceeded that of the two previous years.

Table 1: SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS,1977-78

1977 1978

1. Growth of real GDP 1.9 4.3 2. Deficit in the current account of the BOP relative to GDP 7.8 2.7 3. Consolidatedpublic sector savings a! relative to GDP 2.6 5.4 4. Rate of inflation 8.3 9.5 a/ Fiscal year basis

1/ Barbados's official balance of payments statistics show a very large, positive, errors and omissions item which is believed to reflect, pre- dominantly,under-estimated tourist expenditures. The figures quoted in the text are based on revised estimates of tourist expendituresfor 1974-78 prepared by the mission. While there might still be some un- certainty concerning the exact level of the deficit in the current account, either set of figures, with or without adjustment of tourist expenditures,shows a significantdecline in the size of such deficit after 1976. 16. Real GDP accelerated in 1978, growing at a rate of 4.3%. Export- oriented economic activities accounted for the fast growth of some sectors as well as contributing to foreign exchange earnings: tourism increased by 25%, in the light of a 17% surge in tourist arrivals complemented by stepped-up real tourist expenditures, while export-oriented manufacturing industries provided additional impetus to growth as real value added in this sector rose by 6.2%. Poor weather conditions, however, led to a decline in sugar output of almost 16% and the continued stagnation of other agriculture at the low output level of 1977.

17. The rate of inflation increased to 9.5%. World inflation and the international depreciation of the dollar contributed to the increase in the prices of imported goods and services. On the domestic front, wage increases and the prices of certain agricultural goods also added to inflationary pres- sures.

18. The unemployment rate had declined to 12% by the first quarter of 1978, four percentage points less than the preceding quarter and three percentage points less than the same quarter in the previous year. More recent estimates of this indicator are not available, but other data sources indicate that employment has been growing rapidly in 1978, particularly in the manufacturing sector. However, since the new jobs have gone predomi- nantly to new entrants in the labor force--mostly women--the effect on the unemployment rate may have been dampened.

19. In recognition of the growing precariousness of public sector finances, the government took a number of fiscal measures in 1977 and 1978. Increases in consumption tax rates on luxury goods and a withholding tax on interest were introduced. Personal income tax rates, already quite high, were boosted, making the marginal rate some 70% for annual incomes at BDS$30,000 and over. Corporate tax rates were increased to 45% for all corporations, regardless of economic activity and a temporary 5% surcharge was established in order to compensate the revenues lost as a result of the elimination of the trade tax. In order to encourage employment creation, an employment levy was introduced, refundable if businesses met employment growth targets. As a consequence of these and other measures, and the impact of the ebullient tourism and manufacturing sectors on income, consumption and import taxes, revenues rose sharply in 1978/79, increasing by over 23% from the level of the previous year.

20. As revenues increased, the Government made serious efforts to contain the growth of current expenditures. Despite a wage award which provided an overall increase of about 17% to public employees and is esti- mated to have cost about BDS$16 million, 1/ limitation on new hirings, the reduction of the use of temporary personnel, and cutbacks in expenditures on other goods and services were successful in holding current expenditure growth to only 11% in nominal terms. The impact of the revenue increase and expenditure control efforts was dramatic; budgetary savings jumped from a negative BDS$3.0 million the previous year to over BDS$25 million in 1978/79. The doubling of the social security tax salary ceiling, together

1/ Excludes approximately BDS$4 million for those employees whose con- tracts have not yet been settled. - 6 - with the introductionof a direct percentage payment system, also led to a record rise in contributionsto the National InsuranceCorporation; receipts from taxes and interest increasedby over 25%. Despite a sharp increase in benefit payments the same year, the surplus contributedby the NIC rose by over one quarter. The increase in budgetary savings, the enhanced surplus of the NIC, as well as the surpluses accumulatedby the sugar funds, and small profits from some public corporations,contributed to public sector savings estimated at 5.4% of GDP for 1978/79.

21. In reflectionof Government efforts to control total expendtiture, the near completion of several large projects and delays and difficulties in project preparationand implementation,public sector capital spending fell sharply in 1978/79, dropping by 25%. Public sector savings were adequate to finance over 80% of the reduced level of public investment. A BDS$20 million Eurodollar loan, togetherwith modest levels of borrowing from nonbanking domestic sources, permitted the Government to reduce net credit from the banking system substantially.

22. The foreign sector of the economy continued the recovery process initiated in 1977. Exports of goods and nonfactor services increased by nearly 23%, reflecting 41% growth in non-sugar exports (gross of imports of required inputs) and a 33% surge in receipts from tourism. The boom in non-sugar exports was led by the recently establishedelectronics industries, but also reflected increases in a wide array of industrial goods. Imports of goods and nonfactor services increasedby 13%. Imports of capital goods, which increasedby 24%, accounted for approximatelyone-third of the increment in commodity imports. Imports of intermediategoods, other than fuels, in- creased by 15%. Imports of consumptiongoods, on the other hand, increased only 7% as a result of widely diverging behaviors of its components: while imports of foods and beverages--stronglylinked to activity in the tourism sector--increasedby 17%, imports of other consumptiongoods declined by 3.3%, thus reflectingthe impact of the restrictivepolicies adopted by the Govern- ment. The deficit in the current account of the balance of payments declined once more in 1978 to US$13 million, that is to say, 2.7% of GDP. 1/

23. External borrowing, both by the private and public sector, permit- ted the level of internationalreserves to increase by US$31 tillion. Net foreign assets thus attained a level of US$55 million, still covering less than two months of imports of goods. Although this constitutesan improvement in the reserve position of the country, the higher level of foreign assets cannot yet be deemed adequate for a small, open economy like Barbados'; the country's internationalreserves should be even higher if they are to play effectively their cushioning role, and permit the economy to operate with minimal disruption in the event of unfavorabledevelopments in the interna- tional economy.

1/ See footnote to paragraph 13. -7-

Development Issues

24. The key issues in Barbados' economic development are: (i) to ex- pand export oriented economic activity, leading to a high rate of economic growth, sustaining and consolidating the recent achievements in the balance of payments, and providing employment both for the unemployed and the new entrants in the labor force; (ii) to increase net international reserves; (iii) to reduce the rate of inflation, keeping it in line with international inflation; (iv) to step up the design and execution of public sector investment in order to provide the framework necessary for the development of the private sector; and (v) to maintain and gradually increase public sector savings, in line with the government's investment program.

25. Barbados' medium term prospects depend largely upon the continued expansion of export oriented economic activities, especially tourism and manufacturing industries. Growth of tourism may be limited in 1979 and 1980 since there is a dearth of ongoing projects to increase capacity in this sector; 1/ tourism will accelerate as of 1981, provided that investment decisions are made, and executed, in the near future. Given this proviso, growth may then proceed rapidly for some time since there seem to be no re- levant restrictions from the demand side. In the long run, however, physical limitations to the growth of this activity are bound to become relevant as a result of the island's small size and high population density.

26. The outlook for keeping up the expansion of manufacturing output, exports and employment is highly favorable. The various incentives offered constitute a very attractive package, which jointly with the country's long tradition of stable institutions and favorable investment climate, have generated strong interest on the part of potential investors, both foreign and domestic. As the number of industrial firms operating in Barbados in- creases, however, adequate information about their activities will be needed. At the same time, over the long term, creative programs will be required to increase participation of Barbadian entrepreneurs and managers in the new ventures, both to assure equitable sharing of the benefits of economic growth and to reinforce the development of Barbadian entrepreneurial skills.

27. There may be appreciable scope for efficient import substitution in the agricultural sector, and this will have to be evaluated in the light of the recent reappraisal of the island's water resources. The possible introduction of irrigation agriculture would represent a breakthrough from a sectoral viewpoint, reducing the food import bill and strengthening the linkages between the tourism sector and the domestic economy, a long avowed policy objective. Irrigation agriculture, if consistent with the island's resource endowment, and if economically feasible on an ample scale, could also make a major contribution towards the reduction of the unemployment rate.

1/ The Holiday Village project is the only major one being actively considered at the present time. - 8 -

28. Barbados should continue increasing her holdings of foreign assets. Although the country's international reserves have increased during the last two years, at the end of 1978 they still represented less than two months' imports of goods, a very low ratio for such a small and open economy. Although the Barbadian economy will continue being highly exposed to external fluctua- tions, a build-up of international reserves would eventually permit a less painful absorption of disturbances in the international economy, reducing the adjustments costs in terms of domestic employment and income.

29. Barbados' rate of inflation has exceeded that of her trading part- ners during some past years. Although, for the time being, this does not appear to have had an impact on the international competitiveness of manu- factured exports, to the extent that these go on acquiring greater relative importance, Barbados' balance of payments will become more sensitive to inflation rate differentials. This issue should receive the continuous and highest priority attention of the country's policy-makers during the next few years, in order to avoid the emergence of costly bottlenecks in Barbados' export-oriented development process.

30. The Government's development strategy relies on private sector investment to provide the major impetus to economic growth. The public sector investment program is accordingly designed to provide supporting infrastructure and incentives for the private sector, as well as basic social services. In order to underpin expanded private sector activity, over the next five years the public sector investment program is expected to increase moderately over the average level in the past (from 7.5% to 8.6% of GDP). To support this level of investment, and to reduce reliance on both domes- tically and externally borrowed funds, the Government will need to maintain and gradually increase public sector savings as a percentage of GDP.

Output and Investment

31. The Barbadian economy can grow at an average rate slightly over 5% per annum, between 1979 and 1983. It is anticipated that real GDP will grow about 6% in 1979, as a consequence of continued growth of manufacturing and tourism, and of favorable weather conditions for sugar. The growth rate is likely to decline in 1980, to the extent that sugar production recedes to normal levels. Thereafter, growth rates marginally exceeding 5% can be attained. This growth path, however, will require an average investment effort of almost 24% of GDP, with the investment rate growing through time and reaching nearly 25% in 1983.

32. Private investment will play a vital role in Barbados over the next few years. The Barbados Industrial Development Corporation is expected to be the principal catalyst in promoting investment in new industrial ventures. During 1978 the Corporation approved twenty-five projects re- presenting total investment of BDS$31 million and the creation of nearly 2,000 new jobs. Furthermore, the presentations being actively considered by the Corporation as of January 1, 1979, comprehended 38 projects, with total investment of more than BDS$28 million, and were expected to provide close to 2,100 new jobs. - 9-

Public Sector Investment and Financing

33. At present, a formal four-year public sector investment program and financing plan is being prepared in Barbados as part of the country's development plan. Sectoral priorities have been identified, and the autho- rities have formulated a list of projects which require external financing. Based on the information available on these projects, in varying stages of preparation, and on estimated levels of domestic savings, a public sector investment program and financing plan for the next four years has been pre- pared during the last few months. While final Government decisions are yet to be taken on some aspects of the program, its overall size and composition is likely to remain close to the magnitude analyzed in this report. It should also be noted that the projects identified are not always supported by complete technical, economic and financial feasibility studies. The estimates, therefore, of external capital requirements analyzed in this report are still subject to the completion of these studies, and to the assumption that such studies will confirm the feasibility of the projects.

34. Over the medium term, the authorities hope to increase the emphasis of public sector investment on the directly productive sectors while continuing efforts toward the improvement of economic and social infrastructure. Given this policy, mission estimates indicate that public sector investment would increase as a percentage of GDP, from 7.5% in 1979 to about 9.3% in 1983. The total public sector investment for the next five years is expected to cost close to BDS$700 million in current prices. Of this amount, ongoing externally financed projects account for about 20%, while new projects requiring external financing represent another 37%. Close to 60% of the externally financed projects are in directly productive sectors.

35. In the hope of strengthening agricultural performance, the Govern- ment has given priority to a number of projects in this sector. In addition to ongoing efforts to improve the quality and availability of services and credit, several rural development projects, some with substantial land re- form and irrigation components, have been included in the program in an attempt to rationalize the present land use patterns, to expand and diver- sify agricultural output and to provide greater economic security to small farmers. The development of the fishing industry for both domestic consump- tion and export is also being given priority. With regard to tourism, development has been left substantially to the private sector, with the exception of the BDS$35 million Holiday Village which should begin construc- tion this year. The cluster of hotels that this project would entail is envisaged to tap local entreprenerial initiative, while providing economies of scale associated with the pooling of some common functions. With regard to industrial development, the Government's investment program provides for the cons-tructionof industrial estates which, coupled with its incentive program, should encourage continued private sector investment. At the same time, the Government is contemplating or undertaking pilot studies of certain industries which are anticipated to have strong backward and forward linkages.

36. In the area of supporting economic infrastructure, work is presently underway on the preparation of a private project for a major expansion in electricity generation capacity where financing would be partially guaranteed - 10 - by the Government. This project is particularly important to Barbados' development since existing generating capacity is likely to be exceeded by peak demand during the next five years. The authoritiesalso plan to under- take a seismologicalsurvey to identify possible additional oil and natural gas reserves in Barbados. With respect to transportation,work on both the Grantley Adams Airport and the port has been substantiallycompleted, the Government plans to focus on improving internal transportationover the medium term. Particularlyimportant is the constructionof a bypass road in the Bridgetown area, which should relieve a growing traffic problem.

37. Several externallyfinanced social infrastructureprojects are currently in the early stages of implementation,including the expansion of the PolytechnicInstitute, the rehabilitationof the primary and secondary school system, and the Bridgetown sewage project. The latter has encountered unanticipateddifficulties and has developed an estimated cost overrun of about US$6.0 million which has not yet been financed. In the future, the Government plans to finance most of its social infrastructuredevelopment from domestic sources, although it still hopes to find external financing for a low cost housing program, the developmentof communityhealth clinics, and water supply and sewage projects.

38. If the public sector investment program is to be undertaken success- fully, constraints to all stages of project preparationand executionwill need to be alleviated. The most serious difficultyarises from the need to increase the availabilityof the country's skilled and managerialtalent. Decreasing real salaries in the civil service at the higher levels--a trend which has intensifiedwith each wage adjustment in the past five years-- have exacerbatedthe situationwith respect to the public sector. As a consequence,the Government has found increasing difficultiesin attracting higher level staff and retaining them for more than a few years, with parti- cularly adverse effects on the identificationand preparation of projects. The shortfallsin project preparation,aggravated by rising construction costs, have resulted in delays and cost overruns in project execution. The Governmenthas recently taken a number of steps to strengthenproject planning and implementation. Planning units have been establishedin the major Ministries,while trying to upgrade their technicaland professional staffing. In Ministries responsiblefor implementinglarge projects, pro- ject execution offices are being institutedas well. A recently established public sector investmentunit in the Ministry of Finance and Planning is attemptingto centralize and coordinatepublic sector investmentefforts. Finally, a Planning and Priorities Sub-Committeeof the Cabinet has been establishedto monitor large externally financed projects and forestall major bottlenecks. Despite these efforts, technical assistance,particularly in the area of project preparationand management and the training of local counterpartstaff, is a high priority in the Government'sinvestment program.

39. Recent fiscal measures, together with the healthy growth perform- ance of the economy have, for the time being, relieved the previous savings constraintto public sector investment. The public sector finances,however, remain quite vulnerable to sudden reverses in Barbados' economic fortunes. If the record level of public sector savings achieved in 1978/79 is to be maintainedand generally increased,the authoritieswill need to continue their efforts to ensure sustained growth of current revenues and dampen the recent expansionarytrend in current expenditures. - 11 -

40. Although over the medium to longer term, considerationmight be given to the introductionof a wholesale sales tax or a capital gains tax, given the existing high level of current revenues (30% of GDP in 1978/79), there is presently little room for major additional tax measures as a signi- ficant source of increased revenues. In fact, the personal income tax burden is already so high that it may well be exacerbatingBarbados' existing diffi- culties in retaining indigenousentrepreneurial, managerial and skilled manpower, although some relief through increases in personal allowancesis planned. Considerableroom does exist for improving tax administration. The plethora of new measures and administrativechanges in the past two or three years has placed a heavy strain on the existing tax administration. Although the real elasticity of current revenue with respect to GDP has exceeded unity in the past, it appears likely that this reflects in part the impact of a series of new measures and obscures potentially low elasticity of revenue from income, property and goods and services taxes due to weak administration. The Government has already begun to correct a number of administrativedeficiencies with regard to income taxes. In particular, by requiring the registrationof self-employedindividuals with the National InsuranceCorporation, it hopes to broaden the personal income tax base and reduce tax evasion. The auditing of corporate taxes is presently quite limited, due to staff constraints,and needs to be improved. Better auditing of hotel and restaurant sales taxes is also needed, since it appears that some evasion is taking place. Property taxes, which have more or less stagnated in nominal terms due to anomalies in real estate valuation, arrears and other administrativeproblems, require a thorough overhaul.

41. Current expenditure growth will have to be carefully limited over the next five years, with a view to lowering public sector consumption as a share of real GDP from a level of 16% in 1978 to 14% in 1983. To this end, the Government is planning to institute a system in which the Ministries would budget expenditureson a quarterlybasis, as opposed to the present annual system. In order to reduce the level of wages and salaries as a percentage of GDP, it is recommended that the authorities limit real growth of the wage bill to about 2.5% per year, assuming continued economic growth in the region of 5.0% to 5.5%. At the same time, subsidies for a variety of public services need to be gradually reduced as a percentage of GDP. This could be done through adjustments in tariffs (moderate increasesin water rates and bus fares are already planned for 1979) and through improvementsin the administra- tion of the public enterprises. The growth of welfare payments also needs to be carefully controlled. Overall, current expenditure growth should be limited to an average nominal increase of about 12% annually over the next five years.

42. During the next five years, the savings contributionof the National InsuranceBoard may diminish slightly as a percentage of GDP as benefit outlays rise. Nevertheless,given the above fiscal measures, the public sector should be able to increase public sector savings gradually from 5.4% of GDP in 1978/9 to over 6% in 1983/84. Such a level of savings would be adequate to finance some two-thirds of the public sector investment program. Based on projected disbursementsand amortizationof ongoing and new externally-financed projects, net external financing should be adequate to finance the remaining third. Continuedmodest levels of borrowing from the domestic private sector would permit the Government to reduce its outstanding debt to the banking system somewhat by the end of the period. Table 2: PROJECTEDPUBLIC SECTORINVESTMENT AND FINANCING PROGRAM, 1979/80-1983/84

(BDS$ million)

Estimated Projected Average 1978/9 1979/80 1980/1 1981/2 1982/3 1983/4 1979/80-1983/4

As % of GDP Public Sector Investment 6.7 7.5 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.3 8.6 Public Sector Savings 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.7

As % of Public Sector Investment Public Sector Savings 81.1 72.0 65.1 66.2 66.4 65.4 66.6 Net External Borrowing 38.0 32.4 41.3 33.7 32.9 31.0 33.9 Net Domestic Borrowing -19.2 -4.4 -6.4 0.1 0.7 3.6 -0.5 - 13 -

Balance of Payments Outlook

43. Concerning its balance of payments, Barbadosmust undertake three basic tasks: (i) to maintain at manageable levels the size of the current account deficit as a proportionof GDP, (ii) to develop a set of contingency measures - both fiscal and monetary - that would permit the governmentto act rapidly in the event of unfavorabledevelopments in the balance of payments, and (iii) to increase her holdings of internationalreserves.

44. The value of exports of goods and nonfactor services is expected to grow at an average rate of 15% during the period 1978-83. Export growth is likely to be higher than average in 1979, reflectinghigh yields for sugar in the 1978/79 crop. Exports of sugar would decline in 1980, to the extent that output returns to normal levels, and grow moderately there- after; the average rate of growth for 1978/83would be 8.6%. Exports of other goods are projected to grow at 20% per annum during the five year period. Real growth of the tourism sector was projected at 5% in 1979 and 1980, and at 8% per annum thereafter,thus reflecting the expected increase in the sector's capacity; as a result, receipts from tourismwould grow at an average annual rate of 15%.

45. Imports of goods and nonfactor services are projected to grow at an average rate of 14% per year. Imports of capital goods would grow at an average annual rate of 15%, in line with the investmentrequirements of the proposed program. Imports of intermediategoods (other than fuels) also would increase at 15% annually,while consumptiongoods are projected to grow at an annual rate of 12%. Overall, the rate of growth of imports would be above average in 1979, reflecting a greater impact of world inflation;it would decline thereafter,stabilizing itself near 13%.

46. Under these assumptions,the size of the deficit of the current account of the balance of payments would increase somewhat in 1979, but would decline gradually afterwards,reaching US$11 million, or about 1% of GDP, in 1983.

47. In order to ensure rapid governmentalresponse to unfavorabledevelop- ments in the internationaleconomy and consequentlyminimize the domestic adjust- ment costs, the policy makers should be able to rely on a package of contingency measures that could be applied rapidly if needed; these should include plans for temporary increasesin tax revenues, orderly reductionsin governmentexpen- ditures, and complementarymonetary measures. The Governmentis aware of this need and is taking appropriatesteps. In line with this contingencyplanning, Barbados' balance of payments policy should also seek to increase foreign ex- change reserves, so that these eventually cover nearly four months' imports of goods.. Over the five-year period covered by the projections,international reserves would increase by US$140 million, thus reaching a level of US$195 million by the end of 1983, or approximately3.5 months of imports.

48. The projected deficits in the current account and the need to increase internationalreserves imply a capital inflow of US$215 million over the five-year period covered by the program. Approximatelyhalf of this is expected to be available through private financing,while the remainder is expected to flow through the public sector, largely from project related financing. - 14 -

49. Gross official capital inflows are projected to increase from an estimatedUS$20 million in 1979 to about US$36 million at the end of the period, with the total for the period estimatedat over US$152 million. Of this amount, about 30% representsproject financingwhich has already been committed. External amortizationpayments are expected to rise over the period, as the 1978 Eurodollar loan is repaid.

50. With a public external debt service ratio representing2.3% of export earnings in 1978 and debt outstandingand disbursed amounting to US$58 million (less than 12% of GDP) at the end of 1978, Barbados has modest external public indebtedness. The projected inflows of official capital would increase the public and publicly guaranteed external debt to US$172 million (less than 17% of GDP) by the end of 1983; the correspondingdebt service ratio would not exceed 2% of export earnings in that year. The decline in the debt service ratio, despite the increase of outstandingexternal debt as a percentage of GDP, predominantlyreflects a projected change in the term structure of external debt resultingfrom the substitutionof longer term, project related financing,for medium term balance of payments and budgetary loans. In the light of the moderate debt burden and favorable growth prospects,Barbados may be regarded as creditworthyfor loans on conventionalterms for the estimated external capital requirementsfor the public sector investment program. - 15 -

ANNEX I

RECENT FISCAL MEASURES

1977/78 Budget

1. Abolition of trade tax 2. Increase in corporation tax to 45% on all legally incorporated businesses 3. Restoration of partial tax credit for dividends distributed to resident shareholders 4. Introduction of employment levy (effective 1978) 5. Revision of personal income tax rates and allowances for income year 1977 6. Retroactive tax credit for all taxpayers with gross incomes less than BDS$6,000 a year 7. Increase in marginal income tax rate from 65% to 70% on taxable incomes in excess of BDS$30,000 8. Introduciton of a withholding tax on interest payments 9. Abolition of succession duties and restructuring of estate duty rates 10. Introduction of insurance premium tax 11. Increase in import duties on motor vehicles from 40% to 45% 12. Increase in gasoline tax by 12%; reduction in tax on kerosene by BDS$0.02 per gallon 13. Levy of 10% on overseas phone calls 14. Increase in miscellaneous licenses and fees 15. Increase in consumption tax rates 16. Increase in motor vehicle tax from 20% to 30% 17. Increase in hotel and restaurant sales tax from 5% to 8% 18. Increase in gambling taxes 19. Imposition of taxes on amusement machines and pool tables 20. Increase in stamp duties 21. Increase in miscellaneous fees and charges 22. Increase in water rates 23. Increase in motor vehicle license fees 24. Increase in registration fees for professionals 25. Increase in aircraft landing fees 26. Introduction of surcharge on rentals 27. Increase of license fees on television sets 28. Revision of work permit fees

1978/79 Budget

1. Increase in consumption tax rates on luxury goods 2. Adoption of CARICOM Common External Tariff rates 3. Restoration of duty-free admission of fertilizers 4. Increase in excise duty on rum 5. Removal of excise duty on locally-produced gin and vodka 6. Increase in license fees for motor vehicles 7. Increase in taxes on motor spirits 8. Introduction of gaming duties 9. Extension of hotel and restaurant sales tax to guest houses of less than ten rooms 10. Extension of BDS$60 tax credit to all taxpayers with gross income of less than BDS$6,000 - 16 -

ANNEXI

1978/79Budget (Continued)

11. Income tax allowance for individuals employing bonafide gardeners 12. Income tax allowance on insurance premiums for working wives who opt for a separate assessment 13. Increase in drivers license fees 14. Increase in airport fees 15. Increase in fees payable under the Wireless Telegraphy Act 16. Introductionof tax on premium income derived from property insurance 17. Increase in tax on the Association of Underwriters

1979/80 Budget

1. Reduction of corporationtax to 20% on profits derived from housing construction 2. Tax rebate for land developers 3. Increase in income tax credits and allowances 4. Introductionof separate assessment of married persons incomea 5. Eliminationof 5%, 15% and 25% income tax rates 6. Introductionof sliding acale for land taxation 7. Abolition of betterment levy 8. Reduction of consumption tax on cement and bitters 9. Increase in consumption tax on liquor, beer, and other beverages 10. Waiver of import duties and consumptiontax on certain raw materials used in the manufactureof fiber glass boats 11. Restructuringof license fees on bicycles, carts and animals 12. Adjustment of rate on highway tax on trucks 13. Increase of 3 cents/literand 2 cents/literrespectively on the tax on gasoline and diesel 14. Motor vehicle tax on motor cars of c.i.f. value exceeding US$10,500 to be raised from 30% to 55% 15. Removal of duties and taxes on diesel-poweredvehicles imported for replacement of taxis 10 years and older 16. Increase of water rates 17. Abolition of charge for school meals 18. Increase in Old Age Pensions 19. Increase in bus fares - 17 - ANNEX II

BARBADOS

GOVERNMENT'S PROJECT LIST

1. This report contains a list of major ongoing projects (Annex A) a list of projects for which external finance will be sought during the period 1979/1983 (Annex B) and individual project descriptions (Annex C). Annexes A and B contain the name of the project, the expected lender(s), if any, the total cost, the external financing required, and the status of readiness of the project. The individual descriptions contain additional informa- tion which would be of interest to potential donors or lenders, including technical assistance requirements.

2. Data for these project lists, which will be presented at the Caribbean Group for Cooperation in Economic Development scheduled for June 4-9, 1979, were provided by the Barbados Government. The project lists for 1979/1983 reflect the development strategy of the Government of Barbados, as outlined in the Economic Memorandum dated May 7, 1979. - 18 -

ANNEXA BARBADOS: MAJORPROJECTS WITH FINANCING (US$ million)

Total External Amortization Grace Contingent Projects Cost Financing Source Interest Years Years Financing Amount X

Agriculture Agronomic Research Laboratory 2.5 1.5 EDP Grant 1.0 40 Expansion of Agricultural Marketing Corporation 4.0 2.1 CDB 4.0 15 5 1.9 48 Agricultural Credit 1.0 1.0 CDB 4.0 15 5 - Oistin's Fisheries Development 2.8 1.5 EDF Grant 1.3 46 Technical Assistance: Integrated Rural Developrment of Scotland DistrictStudy 0.6 0.6 IDB Grant - - Development of Fisheries Study 0.2 0.2 CIDA/IDB Grant - - Subtotal 11.1 6.9 4.2

Industry Cane Separation II 1.0 1.0 CIDA Grant - - Industrial Estates 3.8 2.0 CDB 8.5 15 5 1.3 34 ___ 0.5 CDB 4.0 15 5 Subtotal 4.8 3.5 1.3

Tourism Holiday Village 17.2 11.2 IBRD 8.0 15 3 4.5 30 CDB 8.0 15 3 Transportation Adams Airport Development 14.0 10.0 CIDA 3.0 23 7 4.0 29 Technical Assistance: Spring Garden Road/SJPP Study 1.6 1.1 IDB Grant 0.5 21 Subtotal 15.6 11.1 4.5

Education S J Preacod Polytechnic Institute 11.5 7.9 IDB 2.0 20 7.5 3.6 31 Rehabilitation of Primary & Secondary Education System 14.5 10.0 IBRD 8.0 15 3 4.5 32 Subtotal 26.0 17.9 8.1

Housing MDrtgage Finance 3.0 1.2 CDB 2.0 20 7.5 1.8 60 Technical Assistance: Speightstown Urban Development Study 0.1 0.1 CDB Grant - - Subtotal 3.1 1.3 1.8

Health Bridgetown Sewerage Project 19.8* 9.8 IDB 2.0 27 8 4.0 29 Technical Assistance, Health Services Study 0.25 0.18 IDB Grant 0.07 30 Subtotal 20.05 9.98 4.07

TOTAL 97.85 828.47

* Includes estimated cost overrun of US$6.0 million for which financing has not yet been secured. - 19 - ANNEXB

BARBADOS: PROJECT LIST, 1979-83 (US$ million)

External Counterpart Total Financing Possible Contribution Projects Cost Required Source Amount % Status of Project

Agriculture Rural Development and Tenantries 5.0 3.5 IDB has been 1.5 30 IDB has completed project appraisal. approached Spring Hill Land Lease 2.5 1.5 CDB has been 1.0 40 Draft prefeasibility study comPlete. Loan approached aPplication to COB exPected in June 2979. Integrated Rural Development, Scotland District 15.0 9.0 Not known 6.0 40 Feasibility stuDy under way. IDnhas been ap- proached for financing of first phase ($4.0 in.) Vegetable Self-Sufficiency 18.0 9.0 Not known 9.0 50 Prefeasibility study partially completed. Development of Fisheries 10.0 6.0 CIDA has agreed 4.0 40 Feasibility study financed by CIDA under way. in principle Fish Terminal: Speightstown 4.0 3.0 Not known 1.0 25 An initial assessment of the project will result - - - from ongoing SpeightstownDevelopment Study. Prefeasiblity study required. Subtotal 54.5 32.0 22.5

Industry Food Processing 6.0 4.0 CDB has been 2.0 33-1/3 Basic concept and principal components have been approached identified. Development of Clay and Limestone 6.0 4.0 UK has been 2.0 33-1/3 Basic concept and principal components have been approached identified. Industrial Estates 10.0 6.0 Not known 4.0 40 Project in pre-identification stage. Identifica- tion work will be included in Speightstown De- velopment Study and Spring Garden/SJPP Study. Export Industry Promotion 15.0 10.0 IBRD has been 5.0 33-1/3 Basic concept and principal components have approached been identified. Subtotal 37.0 24.0 13.0

Tourism Coastal Conservation 11.0 6.6 IDB has been 4.4 40 Project concept and principal components have approached been identified Transportation and Coomunications Spring Garden/SJPP Road 6.5 4.5 IDB has been 2.0 30 IDB-financed feasibility study is under way. approached East Coast Road 20.0 12.0 Not known 8.0 40 Prefeasibility study is under way. China has ex- - - - pressed interest in conducting feasibility study. Subtotal 26.5 16.5 10.0

Energy Development of Fossil Fuels 10.0 7.0 IDB has been 3.0 30 Identification work complete. IDB appraisal approached mission scheduled for June 1979. Expansion of Generating Capacity-V 63.0 44.0 lBRD,CDC have 19.0 30 Appraisal mission scheduled for July been approached _ 1979, Subtotal 73.0 51.0 22.n

Housing Low-cost Housing 6.0 2.7 CDB,IBkD have 3.3 55 Prefeasibility study under way. bees approached

Health Community Health Clinics 5.0 3.8 IDB has been 1.2 24 Loan expected to reach IDB Board in June 1979. approached Water Supply and Sewerage Establishment of Water Management Authority 1,5 0.9 Not known 0.6 40 Project concept and principal components have been identified. Bridgetown Sewage Reuse Pilot Scheme 1.0 0.6 Not known 0.4 40 Project concept and principal components have been identified. Water Development III 4.0 2.4 Not known 1.6 40 Extension of existing water development program. Project concept and principal components have been identified.

Subtotal 6.5 3.9 2.6

TOTAL 5219. 140.5 79.5

- Project will be implemented by Barbados Light and Power Company, a privately owned entity, and external financing will be partially government-guaranteed. - 20 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Rural Developmentand Tenantries

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$5.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$3.5

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: As part of an integrated rural development program to improve the livelihood of small farmers, the project would improve infrastruc- ture of all tenantries in Barbados and would provide for the enactmentof legislation to ensure land tenure for those working on the plantationsto which tenantriesare attached.

b. Justification: The project should increase agricultural production for export and for import substitution.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1.5 1.0 2.5 50 Foreign Costs - 2.5 2.5 50 Total Costs - Amount 1.5 3.5 5.0 -% 30 70 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 0.05 0.45 0.60 0.40 - 1.5 - External Sources 0.20 1.05 1.40 0.85 - 3.5 - Total 0.25 1.50 2.00 1.25 - 5.0 - - 21 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: IDB conducteda project appraisal in March 1979. It is expected that the loan will reach the IDB Board before the end of calendar 1979.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) AmortizationPeriod: ) t

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and MaintenanceCosts: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. FeasibilityStudies: None

C. Project Implementation: Project will require agricultural marketing, irrigation and extension specialists. - 22 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Individual Project Description

Agriculture (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Spring Hill Land Lease

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$2.5

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$1.5

V. LENDING AGENCY: CDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project provides for the establishmentof about 12 farms of 20 acres each in the northern part of the island. The farms would be leased to tenant farmers on a long-term basis. Central marketing, equipment,irrigation and cooperative farm houses are included in the project.

B. Justification: Will improve the livelihood of small farmers and increase agricultural production for import substitution and export production.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount _

Local Costs 1.00 0.25 1.25 50 Foreign Costs - 1.25 1.25 50 Total Costs - Amount 1.00 1.50 2.50 - % 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 0.20 0.60 0.10 - - 0.90 - External Sources 0.30 0.90 0.40 - - 1.60 - Total 0.50 1.50 0.50 - - 2.50 - - 23 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A prefeasibilitystudy is in draft stage. A loan applicationto CDB is expected in 1979.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: N kown AmortizationPeriod: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. FeasibilityStudies: None

C. Project Implementation: Farm improvementofficers required. - 24 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Agriculture (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: IntegratedRural Development- Scotland District

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$15.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: Us$10. 0

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

a. Description: Project aims at bringing unused land into cul tivation through developmentof fruit and vegetable agriculture,irrigation and drainage, storage, and marketing facilities.

B. Justification: Increase agricuturalproduction for import substi tution and export and improve the income and living standard of the small farmer.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount _

Local Costs 5.0 2.5 7.5 50 Foreign Costs - 7.5 7.5 50 Total Costs - Amount 5.0 10.0 15.0 -% 33 67 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 1.0 1.4 2.0 4.4 0.6 External Sources - - 2.0 2.6 4.0 8.6 1.4 total - - 3.0 4.0 6.0 13.0 2.0 - 25 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A feasibilitystudy financedby IDB and undertakenby Stanley Associates is currentlybeing conducted. IDB will be approached this year for the first phase (US$4.0million).

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: Not known AmortizationPeriod: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. FeasibilityStudies: Feasibilitystudies for subsequent phases are required.

C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified. - 26 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Agriculture (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Vegetable Self-Sufficiency

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$18.0

IV. e XTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$9.0

v. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICaTION:

A. Description: The project aims at expanding acreage devoted to vegetables by 80% (to a total of 3,500 acres). As nearly all prime vegetable production areas are in low rainfall zones, an extensive irrigation component is included.

B. Justification: Increase in production of vegetables for import substitution.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount Local Costs 4.5 - 4.5 25 Foreign Costs 4.5 9.0 13.5 75 Total Costs - Amount 9.0 9.0 18.0 -% 50 50 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPErIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 1.5 1.9 3.5 2.1 9.0 - External Sources - - 2.1 4.0 2.9 9.0 - Total - 1.5 4.0 7.5 5.0 18.0 - - 27 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A prefeasibilitystudy is partially completed. A project proposal and a prefeasibilitystudy are still required.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known AmortizationPeriod: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and MaintenanceCosts: ) None during period Debt obligations: ) Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. FeasibilityStudies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: None - 28 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Agriculture (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Developmentof Fisheries

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$10.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$6.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project would promote the developmentof offshore, deepsea and inland fishing through the purchase of fishing vessels, the construction of shorebased storage and marketing facilities, and training.

B. Justification: The project would increase production of fish both for domestic consumptionand for export.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 2.0 - 2.0 20 Foreign Costs 2.0 6.0 8.0 80 Total Costs - Amount 4.0 6.0 10.0 -% 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 0.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.0 - External Sources - 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 6.0 - Total - 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 10.0 - - 29 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: CIDA-financed feasibility study is complete.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: 3% Amortization Period: 30 years (7 grace)

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS: 1981 1982 1983 Operating and Maintenance Costs: None Debt Obligations: .02 .12 .21

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. Feasibility Studies: None

C. Project Implementation: Gear technologist and fisheries economist required. - 30 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - IndividualProject Description

Agriculture (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Fish Terminal - Speightstown

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$4.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$3.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Constructionof a fishing port with storage facilitiesat Speightstown.

B. Justification: Promotionof fishing industry and development of northeasternregion.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1.0 0.4 1.4 35 Foreign Costs - 2.6 2.6 65 Total Costs - Amount 1.0 3.0 4.0 -% 25 75 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.1 External Sources - - - 0.3 2.3 2.6 0.4 Total - - - 0.5 3.0 3.5 0.5 - 31 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: An initial assessment of the projectwill result from the ongoing SpeightstownUrban DevelopmentStudy. A prefeasibilitystudy is required.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: Not known AmortizationPeriod: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and MaintenanceCosts: ) None during period Debt Obligations: ) Not known

XII. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: Prefeasibilitystudy

B. FeasibilityStudies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified - 32 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Industry (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Food Processing

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$4.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: CDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Establishmentof a food processing plant to process vegetables,fruit, meat, etc. Fish and shrimp processingalso to be incorporated.

B. Justification: To increase industrial and agriculturaloutput, and to provide assured market for seasonal surplusesof agriculturalproduction.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 2.0 - 2.0 33-1/3 Foreign Costs - 4.0 4.0 66-2/3 Total Costs - Amount 2.0 4.0 6.0 - 33-1/3 66-2/3 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.15 1.70 1.15 2.00 - External Sources - - 0.35 1.80 1.85 4.00 _ Total - - 0.50 2.50 3.00 6.00 - - 33 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project identification work began in March 1979.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) None during period Debt Obligations: ) Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: Yes

B. Feasibility Studies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: Food technologist and agronomic specialist required. - 34 -

BARBADOS

\1979-1983 Project List - IndividualProject Description

Industry (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Developmentof Clay and Limestone

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Barbados IndustrialDevelopment Corporation

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$4.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: BDD has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Project will assess the potential use of existing limestone and clay deposits, and provide for the developmentof a pilot plant. Available data indiate that clay deposits in the eastern part of the island are extensive enough to support a clay brick industry and/or a ceramics industry.

B. Justification: Increase industrial production and provide employment.

VII. COST CONPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 0.9 - 0.9 15 Foreign Costs 1.1 4.0 5.1 85 Total Costs - Amount 2.0 4.0 6.0 - 33-1/3 66-2/3 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 1.2 0.8 - - 2.0 - External Sources 1.0 1.8 1.2 - - 4.0 - Total 1.0 3.0 2.0 - - 6.0 - - 35 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project concept identified.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) AmortizationPeriod: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) Debt Obligations:)Debt Obligations: None during period

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. FeasibilityStudies: None

C. Project Implementation: None - 36 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProiect Description

Industry (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: IndustrialEstates

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Barbados Industrial DevelopmentCorporation

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$10.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$6.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Constructionof industrial estates in Spring Garden and Speightstown,contingent upon results of ongoing studies.

B. Justification: Provision of required infrastructurefor continued industrial expansion.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount _

Local Costs 4.0 - 4.0 40 Foreign Costs - 6.0 6.0 60 Total Costs - Amount 4.0 6.0 10.0 -% 40 60 100

IIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - 1.2 2.8 4.0 - External Sources - - - 1.8 4.2 6.0 - Total - - - 3.0 7.0 10.0 - - 37 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project in preidentification stage. Identification work will be included in the Speightstown Urban Development Study and the Spring Garden/SJPP Study.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: Not known Amortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. Feasibility Studies: None

C. Project Implementation: None - 38 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Industry (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Export Industry Promotion

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: IndustrialDevelopment Corporation

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$15.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$10.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: IBRD has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Constructionof factory shells and promotion of industrial developmentfor export.

B. Justification: Increase in industrialexports and employment.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 4.5 - 4.5 30 Foreign Costs 0.5 10.0 10.5 70 Total Costs - Amount 5.0 10.0 15.0 - 33-1/3 66-2/3 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1T83

Local Sources - - 0.3 1.7 2.4 4.4 0.6 External Sources - - 0.7 3.3 4.6 8.6 1.4 Total - - 1.0 5.0 7.0 13.0 2.0 - 39 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Basic concept and principal componentshave been identified.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known AmortizationPeriod: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: ) ) All stages of project B. FeasibilityStudies: ) implementation

C. Project Implementation: ) - 40 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Individual Project Description

Tourism (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Coastal Conservation

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Housing and Lands

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$11.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$6.6

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Project provides for the study of a serious coastal erosion problem which has resulted in the washing away of beaches and significant land erosion in the north and northeast part of the island. It also includes the improve- ment of sewage facilities on the south and west coasts.

B. Justification: Preservationof beaches and agriculturalland and prevention of possible beach pollution.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 4.4 - 4.4 40 Foreign Costs - 6.6 6.6 60 Total Costs - Amount 4.4 6.6 11.0 -% 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.4 - External Sources - - 0.9 1.8 3.9 5.6 - Total - - 1.5 3.0 6.5 11.0 - - 41 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Proposals for a full study from several consultants have been submitted to the Government.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: Not known Amortization Period: )

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: None

B. Feasibility Studies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified - 42 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Individual Project Description

Transportationand Communications (US$ million)

I. NAMEOF PROJECT: Spring Garden/SJPPRoad

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Communicationsand Works

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6.5

IV. EXTERNALFINANCING REQUIRED: US$4.5

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Constructionand improvementof the four-mile road from Fontanbelle to Paradise designed to link the harbor to Highway 1 and to provide a bypass road for traffic using Bridgetown Port.

B. Justification: Relief of traffic conditions in Bridgetown.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External

Sources_ Sources Amount

Local Costs 2.0 0.6 2.6 40 Foreign Costs - 3.9 3.9 60 Total Costs - Amount 2.0 4.5 6.5 - % 31 69 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - 0.6 1.05 0.45 - 2.10 - External Sources - 0.9 2.45 1.05 - 4.40 Total - 1.50 3.50 1.50 - 6.50 - 43 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: A feasibilitystudy financed by IDB is ongoing. The study includes the preparationof detailed final designs, specifications,estimated costs and bidding documents to be used for issuing a call for tenders and as a basis for a loan request.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) AmortizationPeriod: ) t known

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: ) ) B. FeasibilityStudies: ) None ) C. Project Implementation: ) - 44 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Individual Project Description

Transportationand Communications (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: East Coast Road

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Communicationsand Works

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$20.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCINGREQUIRED: US$12.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Constructionand improvementof six to eight miles of road in the northeasternpart of the country.

B. Justification: The road would provide access to agricultural areas and open up the region for possible industrial and tourism development.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 8.0 - 8.0 40 Foreign Costs - 12.0 12.0 60 Total Costs - Amount 8.0 12.0 20.0 -% 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - - 2.8 3.4 6.2 1.8 External Sources - - - 4.2 5.1 9.3 2.7 Total - - - 7.0 8.5 15.5 4.5 - 45 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibilitystudy is currentlyongoing. It is expected that China will finance the feasibilitystudy.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) Amortization Period: o

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: )

B. FeasibilityStudies: ) None

C. Project Implementation: ) - 46 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - IndividualProject Description

Energy (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Developmentof Fossil Fuels

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Industry and Trade

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$10.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCINGREQUIRED: US$7.0

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The identificationof existing petroleumand natural gas reserves through a seismological survey, and the explorationof promising areas.

B. Justification: Reduction of petroleum imports.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount

Local Costs 2.0 - 2.0 20 Foreign Costs 1.0 7.0 8.0 80 Total Costs - Amount 3.0 7.0 10.0 - % 30 70 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.7 1.3 1.0 3.0 - External Sources - 1.5 1.3 2.7 1.5 7.0 - Total - 1.5 2.0 4.0 2.5 10.0 - - 47 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project concept identified;IDB appraisal mission scheduledmid-June.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: ) ) B. FeasibilityStudies: ) Not yet identified C. Project Implementation: ) - 48 -

BARBADOS

1979/83Prolect List - IndividualProlect Description

Power (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Power Expansion

II. EXECUTINGAGENCY: Barbados Light and Power Co.

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$63.0 million

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$44.0 million

V. LENDING AGENCY: IBRD has been approached for US$5.0 million, CDC for US$10.0 million.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Will include part of the Company's 1979-84 investmentprogram in generation,transmission and distribution. Specific components to be financed by the Bank have not yet been defined.

B. Justification: Local growth in the 1979-84 period will require additions to the company'splant if there is to be no rationing of power.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 17.0 - 17.0 27 Foreign Costs 2.0 44.0 46.0 73 Total Costs - Amount 19.0 44.0 63.0 -Z 30 70 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983/4

Local Sources - 4.3 4.5 3.3 4.6 12.7 6.3 External Sources - 10.6 6.6 3.5 12.9 33.6 10.4 Total - 14.9 11.1 6.8 17.5 46.3 16.7 - 49 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: IBRD appraisal mission is scheduled for July of 1979.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known AmortizationPeriod: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None during period Debt Obligations: )

XII. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIRED: None - 50 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Individual Project Description

Housing (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Low-Cost Housing Program

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Housing and Lands

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6.0 million

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCINGREQUIRED: US$3.7 million

V. LENDING AGENCY: CDB, IBRD have been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Developmentof housing program for low-income families in both urban and rural areas of Barbados. Project would include provisionof basic infrastructureto houses in the areas next to the airport and BridgetownHarbor, contingent to regions earmarked for industrial development.

B. Justification: To support future industrialand agricultural developmentand to improve the living standard of Barbadian citizens.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 2.3 0.1 2.4 40 Foreign Costs - 3.6 3.6 60 Total Costs - Amount 2.3 3.7 6.0 -% 38 42 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 0.5 External Sources - - 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.7 1.0 Total - - 0.5 1.5 2.5 4.5 1.5 - 51 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Prefeasibility study underway, which should culminate in a project proposal by the end of the fiscal year.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: ) ) B. Feasibility Studies: ) During all stages of project

C. Project Implementation: ) - 52 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - IndividualProject Description

Health (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Community Health Clinics

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Health

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$5.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$3.85

V. LENDING AGENCY: IDB has been approached.

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The project provides for the constructionof 5 health clinics in the rural areas of Barbados.

B. Justification: Improvementin the provision of preventive health care.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount X

Local Costs 1.15 0.85 2.00 40 Foreign Costs - 3.00 3.00 60 Total Costs - Amount 1.15 3.88 5.00 - % 23 77 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources 0.25 0.70 0.25 - - 1.20 - External Sources 0.75 2.30 0.75 - - 3.80 - Total 1.00 3.00 1.00 - - 5.00 - - 53 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: The project has been appraised by IDB and is expected to go to the Board in mid-June 1979.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

1982 1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 0.1 0.1

Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: ) ) B. Feasibility Studies: ) None

C. Project Implementation: ) - 54 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Water Supply and Sewerage (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Establishmentof Water Management Authority

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Finance and Planning

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$1.55

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$0.9

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The Water Management Authoritywill coordinate the preparationof the water development program and manage the operationof the water systems of the country. The existing entity, the Waterworks Department,is operated as a Government Department.

B. Justification: The establishmentof the Authority is a require- ment in the Sewerage Project Loan Agreement with IDB, and should provide more effectiveadminis- tration and financing of water development.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 0.65 0.05 0.70 45 Foreign Costs - 0.85 0.85 55 Total Costs - Amount 0.65 0.90 1.55 - % 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.65 - - 0.65 - External Sources - 0.25 0.65 - - 0.90 - Total - 0.25 1.30 - - 1.55 - - 55 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Basic concept of the project is identified.

X. TERMSOF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and MaintenanceCosts: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: Yes

B. FeasibilityStudies: No

C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified - 56 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - IndividualProject Description

Water Supply and Sewerage (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Bridgetown Sewage Reuse Pilot Scheme

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Communicationsand Works

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$1.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$0.6

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: Constructionof a small-scalepilot project to test various methods of land disposal for the effluent from the activated sludge treatment plant currently being built. A 200,000 gallon/day test facility would consist of five acres of crop irrigationand two acres of infiltrationbasins with appropriatemonitoring and observationwells.

B. Justification: Would provide water for irrigationpurposes.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 0.4 - 0.4 40 Foreign Costs - 0.6 0.6 60 Total Costs - Amount 0.4 0.6 1.0 - % 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.2 0.2 - 0.4 - External Sources - - 0.3 0.3 - 0.6 Total - - 0.5 0.5 - 1.0 - 57 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project concept identified.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) Amortization Period: ) None

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

1983

Operating and Maintenance Costs: 0.1

Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: No

B. Feasibility Studies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified - 58 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - IndividualProject Description

Water Supply and Sewerage (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Bridgetown Sewerage - Cost Overrun

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communicationsand Works

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$6.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$3.6

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The lowest bid for the constructionof the new sewerage facilities exceeded the estimatedcost by six million dollars, due to unforeseen site difficulties,including the necessity to relocate existing public works and unfavorableground conditions.

B. Justification: Completion of ongoing project.

VII. COST COMPONENTSAND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 2.4 - 2.4 40 Foreign Costs - 3.6 3.6 60 Total Costs - Amount 2.4 3.6 6.0 -% 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENTPERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources External Sources (See ongoing projects - Bridgetown Sewerage) Total - 59 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: IDB is being approached to finance the cost overrun. Overrun could also be eligible for CDF financing.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: ) Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: ) None during period Debt Obligations: ) Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: ) ) B. Feasibility Studies: ) None

C. Project Implementation: ) - 60 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Individual Project Description

Water Supply and Sewerage (US$ million)

I. NAME OF PROJECT: Water Development III

II. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Communicationsand Works

III. TOTAL ESTIMATED COST: US$4.0

IV. EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIRED: US$2.4

V. LENDING AGENCY: Not known

VI. DESCRIPTIONAND JUSTIFICATION:

A. Description: The implementationof the third phase of the water developmentprogram, including the staging of development of water sources, trunk mains, pumping stations, and reservoirs over all the island.

B. Justification: Provision of greater access to piped-in water for Barbados populace.

VII. COST COMPONENTS AND FINANCING:

Financed by Total Local External Sources Sources Amount %

Local Costs 1.6 - 1.6 40 Foreign Costs - 2.4 2.4 60 Total Costs - Amount 1.6 2.4 4.0 - % 40 60 100

VIII. DISBURSEMENT PERIOD: Post 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Total 1983

Local Sources - - 0.2 0.8 0.6 1.6 - External Sources - - 0.3 1.2 0.9 2.4 - Total - - 0.5 2.0 1.5 4.0 - - 61 -

IX. STATUS OF PREPARATION: Project concept identified.

X. TERMS OF FINANCING:

Interest Rate: )Not known Amortization Period: N

XI. PROJECT IMPLICATIONS:

Operating and Maintenance Costs: None Debt Obligations: Not known

XII. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIRED:

A. Project Preparation: Yes

B. Feasibility Studies: Yes

C. Project Implementation: Not yet identified - 62 -

BARBADOS: Technical Assistance Requirements

The followingprojects require technicalassistance for preparation of project documentationand/or feasibilitystudies:

IntegratedRural Development- Scotland District Vegetable Self-Sufficiency Fish Terminal-Speightstown Food Processing Export Industry Promotion Coastal Conservation Low-Cost Housing Program Establishmentof Water Management Authority Bridgetown Sewage Reuse Pilot Scheme Water DevelopmentIII

The followingnonproject-specific technical assistance schemes are also required:

Research and Development on the Production and Processing of Sweet Potato and Cassava Organic Bio-Fertilizerfrom Agriculture and Forest Waste Utilization of Molasses Fruit Orchard Management IrrigationDevelopment Dairy Operations Improvement Hatching Eggs Pig Breeding Unit HandicraftsDevelopment Establishmentof National Banks Reequipment of School Meals Program Upgrading of Technical Wings in Secondary Schools Morbidity Survey National Health and Drug Services Water Waste Control Scheme Assistance to National Insurance Corporation Land Registry Criminal Reform Central Bank - Systems Analyst Assistance to BroadcastingCorporation Physical Planning TelecommunicationsSupport Electrical EngineeringSupport CooperativeOrganization and Development - 63 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Technical AssistanceProfile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Research and Development on the Production and Processing of Sweet Potato and Cassava

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

1. Selection and growing of sweet potato and cassava cultwars on which a tertiary processingindustry can be based.

2. Establish techniquesfor processing selected cultwars of sweet potato and cassava.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Export Services: Rootcrop agronomist Food technologist

Equipment: 1 seven stage extender I dehydratedflaking process Deep fat frying equipment

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 732 - 64 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Prolect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Organic Bio-Fertilizerfrom Agricultureand Forest Waste

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

To assist the Government in developing local preparationof organic bio-fertilizeras well as in manufacturingagricultural sprayers (mobileand portable) for the applicationof liquid fertilizersand pesticides.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE-REQUIREMENTS:

Expert Services

VII. ESTIMATEDCOST (US$'OOO): 10 - 65 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Utilizationof Molasses

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTINGGOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

To assist the Government in developingprofitable utili- zation of molasses.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert Services

VII. ESTIMATEDCOST (US$'000): 10 - 66 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Prolect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Fruit Orchard Management

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTINGGOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

To increase fruit tree yields and improve consistencyof fruit quality through introductionof improved agronomic techniques.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCEREQUIREMENTS:

Expert Services: Horticulturist

VII. ESTIMATEDCOST (US$'000): 180 - 67 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Prolect List - TechnicalAssistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: IrrigationDevelopment

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTINGGOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture/Ministryof Communicationand Works

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

Investigationof soil-water-plantand climate relationships, particularlythose most relevant under Barbados conditionswhich affect choice, design and operation of irrigation systems,with special emphasis on small scale family owned operationsand establishmentof the economic viability of new irrigationtech- nique. A componentfor the provision of various levels of training to provide skilled manpower to effect a significantexpansion of irrigation over the next 20 years is included.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert Services: IrrigationEngineer

Equipment

VII. ESTIMATEDCOST (US$'000): 390 - 68 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Prolect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Dairy Operations Improvement

III. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA has been approached

IV. EXECUTINGGOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

Improvementin the present system of milk production and collection,with particular attention to small farmers, esta- blishment of a system of registrationof dairy animals and institutionof a system of milk testing and recording.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services and equipment

VII. ESTIMATEDCOST (US$'000): 50 - 69 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Hatching Eggs

III. LENDING AGENCY: Government of Denmark has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Increase in production of eggs for hatching purposes in order to reduce the need for import.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services and equipment

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 20' - 70 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Pig Breeding Unit

III. LENDING AGENCY: Government of Denmark has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Agriculture

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To improve and upgrade selection of appropriate breeds of pigs for the production of ham and bacon.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 10 - 71 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Industry

II. PROJECT TITLE: Handicrafts Development

III. LENDING AGENCY: CFTC has been approved.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: BIDC

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Development of modern techniques in ceramics and printing and dyeing to increase and diversify skills in handicrafts. A program of technical assistance is already ongoing, with a 3-month extension in 1979 approved.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 98 - 72 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Tourism

II. PROJECT TITLE: Establishment of National Parks

III. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA/USAID have been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communications and Works.

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To conduct a feasibility study on the development of certain identified areas for the establishment of national parks on the North Eastern coast of the islands, with a view to ensuring that environmental quality of the area in light of increasing pressures for various forms of inappropriate development is retained. The development of a park would also provide a point of interest for tourists.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services: Engineer Park Specialist

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 72 - 73 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Education

II. PROJECT TITLE: Re-equipment of School Meals Program

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Education

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Provision of equipment for school meals program, which raises health stands of children and enables them to maximize their educational opportunities.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Equipment, vehicles

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'ooo): 1,425 - 74 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Education

II. PROJECT TITLE: Upgrading of Technical Wings in Secondary Schools.

III. LENDING AGENCY: UK has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENTAGENCY: Ministry of Education

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

Provision of equipment for technical programs in secondary schools in order to increase the number of skilled persons entering the labor force annually.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Equipment

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'ooo): 2,344 - 75 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Health

II. PROJECT TITLE: Morbidity Survey

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Health

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To identify and quantify most serious medical problems in Barbados through improving the statistical base.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'ooo): 45 - 76 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Health

II. PROJECT TITLE: National Health and Drug Services

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTINGGOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Health

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

Formulationof national health services and provision for bulk importationof drugs.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services, includingFinancial Analyst

VII. ESTIMATEDCOST (US$'000): 100 - 77 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Water and Sewerage

II. PROJECT TITLE: Water Waste Control Scheme

III. LENDING AGENCY: UK has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Waterworks Department

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To enable Barbados to become entirely self-sufficient in the system of control against water loss as a result of leakage, breakage or whatever cause.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$0ooo): 54 - 78 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: National Insurance Corporation: Assistance

III. LENDING AGENCY: CFTC has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: National Insurance Corp.

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Advice and training for management of Corporation. The program is already ongoing and requires extension for two years.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 330 - 79 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983ProJect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Land Registry

III. LENDING AGENCY: CIDA has agreed to fund

IV. EXECUTINGGOVERNMENT AGENCY: Not Known

V. DESCRIPTIONAND OBJECTIVES:

Preparationof large-scaletopomaps at suitable scales for the entire island.

VI. TECHNICALASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 100 - 80 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Proiect List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Criminal Reform

III. LENDING AGENCY: UK has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Attorney General

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Updating of panel legislation, and relevant institutions, method and procedures for dealing with offenders.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 10 - 81 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Central Bank - Systems Analyst

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Central Bank

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Computerization of Central Bank operations.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Systems Analyst

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 120 - 82 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Broadcasting Corporation - Technical Assistance

III. LENDING AGENCY: UK has been approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Broadcasting Corporation

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Improvement of technical competence of staff and administration.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services: I executive engineer for 18 months

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'ooo): 150 - 83 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Physical Planning

III. LENDING AGENCY: UNDP approached.

IV, EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Finance and Planning

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Update physical development plan for Barbados and explore the potential for decentralization.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII, ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 50 - 84 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Telecommunications Support

III. LENDING AGENCY: UNDP/ITU to be approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Communications and Works

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Provision of administrative support and direction of the operations of the Telecommunications Unit in the areas of monitoring and frequency management.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 180 - 85 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Administration

II. PROJECT TITLE: Electrical Engineering Support

III. LENDING AGENCY: Not Known

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Electrical Inspection Department

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

Assistance to and improvement of administration of electrical inspection department.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 80 - 86 -

BARBADOS

1979-1983 Project List - Technical Assistance Profile

I. SECTOR: Agriculture

II. PROJECT TITLE: Cooperative Organization and Development

III. LENDING AGENCY: UNDP/ILO approached.

IV. EXECUTING GOVERNMENT AGENCY: Ministry of Housing and Lands

V. DESCRIPTION AND OBJECTIVES:

To improve the economic and social conditions in Barbados by establishing a strong, independent and integrated cooperative sector within the economy.

VI. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REQUIREMENTS:

Expert services: A consultant has been recruited and is anticipated to start work in 1979.

VII. ESTIMATED COST (US$'000): 180 ANNEX III - 87 -

TOURISM SECTOR REVIEW

A. Structureand Role of Sector

1. Barbados is the most easterly of the Caribbeanislands, possessing a tropical but equable climate long favored by tourists from the temperate zone. The terrain is relatively undulating but not as scenically spectacular as is the case in some of the other islands. Nevertheless,its long sandy beaches, particularlythose along the western and southern shores, present some of the finest sea-bathingto be found anywhere.

2. With its physical characteristics,along with a traditionof political and social stability and its friendly people, Barbados has long been popular as a holiday resort. Traditionally,tourism to the island was characterizedby a high degree of exclusivity,catering essentially to a small number of affluent visitors from the United States and the United Kingdom. With the advent of mass air-travel,particularly with the introductionof jet aircraft and later, wide-bodied jets, Barbados appealed to a much wider market. As a result, tourism now plays a significantpart in developing both the economic and social fabric of the island.

Tourist Accommodation

3. Accommodationcapacity expanded rapidly through the 1960s and early 1970s from little more than 2,000 tourist beds to over 9,000, in response to market pressure and the general optimism that prevailed at the time. Since that time, despite the general downturn in tourism following the world-wide economic recession precipitatedby the energy crisis, tourism on the island has remained relativelybuoyant and capacity has continued to grow.

4. Estimates for 1977, the latest year for which official statistics are available,up-dated and corrected by field research,indicate that the island currently offers in excess of 11,000 tourist beds, ranging from internationallyknown luxury establishmentsto the more humble guest house. An analysis of the structure of the industry is presented in Table 1. - 88 -

Table 1: TOURIST ACCOMMODATION - 1978

Number of Tourist Beds Category Establishments Number %

Hotels: Group I 19 2,691 23.3 Group II 16 1,344 11.6 Group III 23 1,067 9.2 Guest Houses 23 288 2.5

Total Hotels 81 5,390 46.7

Apt. Hotels: Group I 8 886 7.7 Group II 19 982 8.5 Group III 12 762 6.6

Total Apt. Hotels 39 2,630 22.8

Apartments: Group I 19 1,286 12.9 Group II 43 2,233 17.6

Total Apartments 62 3,519 30.5

All Establishments 182 11,539 100.0

Source: Digest of Tourism Statistics, 1977, and Field Research.

5. The more recent expansion in capacity, however, has centered primarily around that segment of the market offering some form of self- catering facility, a trend reflecting the shift that has taken place in the pattern of international tourism. Despite the change in emphasis away from the more traditional hotel style of service, there appears to have been little down-grading of hotel stock, since many of these establishments offer exceptionally high international standards.

6. Other than a few large internationally owned or operated hotels, the typical establishment is relatively small to medium in size (Table 2). - 89 -

Table 2: SIZE AND STRUCTURE OF THE ACCOMMODATIONINDUSTRY

Size Hotels Guest Apt. Hotels Apts. All Establishments (Bed s) I II III Hou ses I II III I II No . %

0-20 1 4 20 4 1 4 24 58 31.9

21-40 1 6 8 3 2 9 4 7 13 53 29.1

41-100 8 4 10 2 4 5 7 4 44 24.2

101-200 4 5 1 4 2 2 1 1 20 11.0

201-400 5 1 6 3.3

401+ 1 1 0.3

Total 19 16 23 23 8 19 12 19 43 182 100.0

Source: Field Research.

7. A survey undertaken in 1976 indicated that ownership of luxury accommodation resided primarily in the hands of non-Barbadians (73 percent of luxury or Class I hotels and 57 percent of Class I apartment hotels), whilst the converse was true of the less expensive forms of accommodations (Table 3). Even with the most recent investment in accommodation stock, the ownership pattern probably remains broadly the same. - 90 -

Table 3: BARBADOS TOURIST ACCOMMODATION OWNERSHIP CHARACTERISTICS

Locally Owned Category Beds (%)

Hotels: Group I (Luxury) 27 Group II (Class "A") 73 Group III (Class "B") 69

Guest Houses 100

Apartment Hotels: Group I 43 Group II 72 Group III 84

Apartments: Group I 80 Group II 90

All Categories: 66

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

Tourism Demand

8. With an international airport, good hotel stock and a deep-water harbor facility capable of handling cruise-ship arrivals, the number of overseas visitors to Barbados grew rapidly over the last decade, even though a slight hiatus followed the fuel crisis and the longer-term recessions in the economies of the principal tourism generating countries (Table 4).

Table 4: TOURIST ARRIVALS: 1970-1978

Cruise-Ship Stay-over Ave. Length Hotel Bed Period Arrivals Visitors of Stay (days) Occup. %

1970 79,635 156,417 5.3 45.9 1971 79,159 189,075 6.4 48.0 1972 100,086 210,349 6.4 48.3 1973 116,342 222,080 6.8 52.5 1974 119,524 230,718 9.1 55.6 1975 98,546 221,486 8.6 40.9 1976 95,901 224,314 8.5 44.7 1977 103,077 269,274 9.0 54.1 1978 105,172 a! 282,742 b/ n.a. n.a. at Jan.-Oct. b/ Jan.-Nov. Source: Barbados Statistical Service. - 91 -

9. The impact in Barbados of the general downturn in the tourism market was relatively short-lived. Although cruise ship arrivals have not as yet fully recovered their former levels, this has not been the case with stay-over visitors. The market began to recover in 1976, attaining a new record in 1977. Statistics up to November of 1978 indicate that tourist visitors have increased by 17.4 percent over the corresponding period for the preceding year, suggesting an annual total of approximately 315,000 visitors. This growth would appear to have been maintained into the current year since hotels' forward bookings appear to be at much higher levels than previously experienced.

10. Recent visitor arrivals to Barbados expanded at a faster rate than elsewhere in the Caribbean, with a consequential increase in market share. Over the period, 1970-1977, the number of stay-over visitors in Barbados grew at an average annual rate of 8.1 percent compared to 3.5 percent for the Caribbean as a whole. Over the same period, the island's market share rose from 4.2 percent to 5.7 percent.

11. Since the energy crisis, certain changes have occurred in the characteristics of tourist demand (Table 5). Whereas, traditionally the United States has been the principal tourist generating country, this position has now been taken over by Canada. In 1973, some 73,000 US visitors stayed in Barbados compared to 69,000 Canadians. By 1977, only 70,000 Americans visited the island whilst the number of Canadians had risen to 84,000.

12. To a large extent this situation reflects a higher proportion of Canadian financed tourist investment in Barbados supported by the earlier introduction of inclusive tour air charters than in the United States. With the gradual development of charter operations in the United States along with the de-regulation of the air-tariff structure in general, the rate of growth of the American market is now significantly higher than that of Canada.

13. Overall, although North America remained the chief tourist generating market for Barbados, other secondary but increasingly important market segments have emerged recently. The United Kingdom, West Germany and Venezuela have all increased their respective share of the Barbados' tourist market, with the UK showing an estimated 40 percent rise in the number of visitors during 1978. Currently, over 30,000 British visitors stay in Barbados, making it by far the most important destination in the Caribbean. Visitors from the CARICOM countries, principally Trinidad, total some 18 percent of all arrivals.

14. Tourism demand in Barbados, therefore, is buoyant, a situation not being experienced elsewhere in the Eastern Caribbean with the possible exception of St. Lucia. Notwithstanding the relative accessibility of the island,and the overall quality of the tourism product, the strength of the industry in Barbados has been its dynamism. Unlike the majority of other tourist destinations through the world that have experienced some degree of retrenchment in the wake of world-wide recessions not only has Barbados continued to expand its overall accommodation stock, but it has done so in a form that is best suited to the changing pattern of demand. Table 5: FOREIGN VISITORS-/ BY COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE - 1967, 1970, 1973-77, 1978 ('000's)

1967 1970 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978- No. 7 No. % No. % No. % No. % No. % No. %' No. %

United States 29.8 33 57.1 37 73.3 33 66.2 28 54.9 25 56.0 25 70.4 26 67.5 27

Canada 18.3 20 39.6 25 68.7 31 77.2 33 75.5 34 73.0 33 83.7 31 71.1 28

United Kingdom 9.6 10 12.1 8 17.7 8 23.8 10 24.8 11 25.8 12 25.5 10 27.6 11

Caricom 24.7 27 33.5 21 39.4 18 38.1 16 38.5 17 38.5 17 48.6 18 45.6 18

West Cermany b/ - b/ - 4.6 2 6.3 3 7.1 3 8.6 4 .11.4 4 b/ -

Venezuela 1.8 2 2.7 2 2.7 1 2.9 1 3.4 2 4.4 2 5.9 2 b/ -

Other Countries 7.4 8 11.5 7 15.7 7 16.1 7 17.4 8 17.9 8 23.1 7 40.8 16

Total Visitors 91.6 100 156.4 100 222.1 100 230.7 100 221.6 100 224.3 100 269.3 100 252.7 100

a/ Excluding cruise-ship arrivals. b/ Included in "Other Countries." c/ January-October

Source: Barbados Statistical Service Table 6: VISITOR NIGHTS IN RECOGNIZED (toDD)TCURIST ACCOMYODATION: 1972-1977

Category No. 1972 N 1973 N 1974 1975 1976 N 1977 Category No. X No. Z No. AO ~~~~~No.% .. , o Z

Luxury/Group I 421 - 467 - 4 89 33 423 38 412 32 480 31 "A" Class/Group I 267 - 253 - 257 17 94 8 110 9 80 5 "B" Class/Group III 72 - 66 - 50 3 58 5 74 6 74 5 Guest Houses 28 - 22 - 29 2 5 b/ 5 b/ 7 b/

All Hotels 788 - 808 - 825 56 580 52 601 47 641 42

Group I Apt. Hotels N/A - N/A - NIA - 91 8 98 8 77 5 Group II " " N/A - N/A - N/A - 115 10 87 7 179 12 Group IIi N/A - N/A - N/A - 114 10 121 10 130 8

All Apt. Hotels N/A - N/A - N/A - 320 29 306 24 385 25

Group I Apartments N/A - N/A - N/A - 85 8 93 8 119 8 Croup II Apartments N/A - NIA - N/A - 135 12 274 21 389 25

All Apartnments N/A - N/A - N/A - 220 20 366 29 507 33

Apt. Hotels/Apts. N/A - N/A - 647 44 540 48 673 53 892 58

Total Visitor Nights N/A _ N/A - 1472 100 1120 100 1274 100 1534 100

a/ Columns may not add due to rounding. b/ less than 0.5 percent. Source: Barbados Statistical Service Table 7: TREND IN BED OCCUPANCY RATE BY TYPE OF ACCONMODATION

All Establish- Hotels Guest Apartment Year ments Group I Group II Group III Houses Hotels Apartments

1970 50.6 43.1 31.6 35.0

1971 55.5 41.1 35.8 31.8

1972 56.2 46.7 36.8 24.4

1973 53.3 63.7 48.5 37.2 20.5 64.1 63.8 1

1974 55.6 63.3 48.9 34.9 26.7 59.4 59.0 4

1975 49.9 59.1 37.5 13.3 20.8 53.4 59.3

1976 44.7 53.0 36.1 22.1 19.4 50.4 45.9

1977 54.1 61.3 40.4 40.7 25.4 53.4 55.1

Source: Barbados Statistical Service Table 8: MONTHLYBED OCCUPANCYRATE BY TYPE OF ACCOMMODATION:1977-1978

Hotels Guest Apartment- Apartments

Month Group I Group II Group III Houses Hotel-s _____ 77 '78 '77 '78 '77 '78 '77 '78 '77 '78 '77 '78

Jan 67.2 71.0 53.1 47.4 36.6 52.1 44.0 36.7 62.8 75.6 70.2 79.6

Feb 83.3 84.0 76.7 76.0 63.4 59.1 56.7 47.6 81.6 84.3 86.2 85.3

Mar 70.1 77.5 60.3 57.1 58.4 56.8 40.0 41.3 73.7 79.5 80.4 77.4

Apr 63.6 70.8 40.0 47.5 36.7 32.6 26.1 22.3 56.8 54.0 55.7 53.3

May 46.8 51.2 19.6 35.2 28.1 24.2 16.3 12.4 36.6 34.0 35.3 35.4

Jun 38.6 46.6 16.8 21.5 24.7 17.4 18.6 15.1 25.0 31.7 26.1 29.8

Jul 45.5 49.4 31.1 20.5 44.8 39.2 42.7 24.5 43.1 46.8 45.0 40.9

Aug 62.4 66.9 36.3 37.9 52.9 47.6 35.9 27.1 60.2 68.2 58.2 63.0

Sep 44.8 56.5 32.1 19.6 32.5 23.9 22.9 22.4 39.9 45.1 36.4 40.5

Oct 52.6 65.4 *32.9 24.8 24.8 41.9 12.5 17.8 46.8 56.6 45.0 41.7

Nov 73.5 82.4 43.4 3.0 35.9 50.3 19.5 12.1 63.0 72.2 52.5 57.0

Dec 65.3 N/A 21.1 N/A 39.9 N/A 27.6 N/A 64.2 N/A 57.5 N/A

Source: Barbados Statistical Service - 96 -

Table 9: VISITORS IN RECOGNIZED ACCOIEODATION,1978

Accomodation Visitors Nights a/ Type Number % Number

Hotels: Group I 86,434 33.0 648,262 28.2

Group II 21,916 8.4 168,753 7.3

Group III 29,000 11.1 162,403 7.1

Guest Houses 7,884 3.0 26,806 1.2

Apartment-Hotels 57,312 21.9 578,850 25.1

Apartments 59,233 22.6 716,714 31.1

261,779 100.0 2,301,788 100.0

a/ Estimated using average length of stay for 1977.

Source: Barbados StatisticalService - 97 -

15. Whilst the demand for luxury or Group I hotels declined slightly during 1975 and 1976, it had recovered by 1977 (Table 6) and is currently giving rise to very high occupancy levels (Tables 7 & 8). Other categories of hotels including guest-houses are still relatively depressed. On the other hand, the demand for both apartment hotels and apartments, although declining in 1975 recovered rapidly the following year and currently is the most important sector of the market, with 56 percent of visitor bednights (Table 9). Significant in this respect is the rapidly increasing share of Group II classified apartments.

16. Associated with the changing tourism pattern in the island has been an increase in the average length of stay, from five days in 1970 to nine days in 1977. To a large extent, this trend reflects the larger proportion of Canadians and European visitors to Barbados than is experienced elsewhere in the Caribbean. Both groups enjoy longer holiday entitlements than their American counterparts and, in part, are attracted to the island by the relatively recent developments in partially or wholly self-catering apartment style accommodation.

17. Significant for future planning and marketing is the seasonality difference between tourists from the various originating countries (Table 10). Whilst an overwhelming majority of Canadian visitors arrive during the winter season, this is not the case with other important or potentially important markets. Although the winter remains important for the American and European markets, both areas generate a high proportion of summer tourism, with approximately 45 percent of tourists arriving during April to September. Visitors from the Caribbean Region in general (including Venezuela) primarily travel during the summer months, with the winter being of relatively little significance.

Table 10: SEASONALITY OF TROUIST ARRIVALS, 1977 (Percentage)

Quarter USA Canada UK W. Germany Venezuela CARICOM

I 29.5 45.2 20.2 22.0 9.6 15.5

II 20.8 15.5 20.8 22.0 24.8 25.4

III 23.1 13.1 23.3 25.0 46.4 37.7

IV 26.5 26.2 35.6 31.1 19.3 21.4

Source: Barbados Statistical Service - 98 -

Economic Impact

18. International tourism makes a significant impact on the economic fabric of Barbados, not only in terms of employment generation and foreign exchange earnings but also through the linkages with other sectors of the economy, particularly with agriculture.

19. Despite the importance of the tourism sector, however, definitive estimates of the nature and magnitude of the impact of this sector do not exist. Nevertheless, adjustments may be made to official statistics to provide more meaningful estimates.

(a) Employment Generation

It is estimated that some 5,600 persons are employed by hotels in the high season as a direct result of tourism (Table 11). In addition, possibly a further 1,000 persons are employed in restaurants outside of hotels, again as a result of international tourism. It is also estimated that a further 6,000 - 7,000 persons are employed in manufacturing, retailing and the service industries, particularly in such areas as handicrafts, transport, duty-free shops and increasingly, food stores, as a result of the high level of tourist flows.

Table 11: ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN HOTELS - 1978

Number of Rooms/Employee Estimated Category Rooms a/ Ratio b/ Employment

Hotels: Group I 1,345 1:1.89 2,542 Group II 672 1:1.08 726 Group III 533 1:0.67 357 Guest Houses 144 1:1.22 176

Total Hotels 2,694 - 3,801

Apt. Hotels: Group 1 443 1:1.22 540 Group II 491 1:0.57 280 Group III 381 1:0.61 232

Total Apt. Hotels 1,315 - 1,052

Apartments: Group I 643 1:0.51 328 Group II 1,116 1:0.43 480

Total Apartments 1,759 - 808

All Establishments 5,768 - 5,661

a/ Assuming two beds per room.

b/ "Tourism and Employment in Barbados" (Dawn I. Marshall), Institute of Social and Economic Research (UWI), 1978. - 99 -

Overall, therefore,the tourism sector generates employment for an estimated 13,000-14,000persons or, about 15 percent of the total labor force. Earnings within the industry in Barbados for both wage earners and salaried staff are on average, relatively high in comparisonto other sectors of the economy (BD $400 per month for wage earners and BD $800 for salaried employees). A significantfeature of employmentgenerated by tourism is the high proportionof female labor employed in the industry,esti- mated at 45 percent of the work force in hotels and restaurants.

(b) Inter-SectoralLinkages

The principal linkage occurs with the agriculturalsector. The precise impact of tourist expenditureson food and liquor production locally is uncertain,but there is no doubt that governmentlegislation aimed at restrictingthe import of certain foodstuffsis having a positive effect, particularly on the dairy industry.

Physical Infrastructure

20. The physical infrastructurenecessary to a developingtourist industry is well provided on the island. Barbados possesses an international airport which, although located in the south of the island, is relatively close to the major areas of tourism development.

21. Most of the roads on the island are adequate for tourist purposes, with reasonable surface and a system permittingvehicular access to virtually all places of interest. Problems do arise with inadequatesidewalks that do not readily permit the free movement of tourists.

B. Main Issues and Policy Recommendations

22. Barbados representsone of the major tourist destinationsin the Caribbean region yet, despite its proximity to the principal tourist generating areas, particularlyNorth America, the island has not attained its full tourist potential.

23. In view of the size of the American touristmarket and the virtually untapped markets of Europe and Venezuela, there is no doubt that the number of foreign visitors arrivals to Barbados could more than double within five to ten years.

24. To achieve this growth, however, solutionsneed to be found to those problem areas that either constrain the future developmentof tourism on the island or, may lead to sub-optimalgrowth and possibly deleterious social impacts. These issues are discussedmore fully in the following paragraphs. - 100 -

Accommodation Capacity

25. Despite the recent growth in tourist accommodation to meet changing market requirements, an analysis of occupancy statistics (Table 8) indicates that, at peak periods of the year, those hotels, aparthotels and apartments catering essentially for the middle and upper income international tourists are essentially fully booked.

26. The short-term effect of these supply constraints has been for some element of demand to move down-market to less-expensive tourist accommodation, utilizing some establishments not offering international standards. It is further evident that a degree of frustrated demand already exists and, in view of the potential of the American market, this is likely to become increasingly significant.

27. The shortfall in up-market tourist accommodation is likely to be an inhibiting factor, therefore, to long-term growth and is likely to create an adverse reaction with tour operators.

28. Some scope exists, however, for improving occupancies in both the summer and shoulder months. In the short-term, therefore, an objective of government should be to obtain better utilization of its existing hotel stock.

29. Without pre-judging the findings of various studies of the tourism market potential of Barbados currently being prepared, an agressive marketing campaign in Europe seems to be in order. Particular attention should be paid to the more affluent communities of West Germany, Switzerland and Scandinavia as well as to Britain with whom the island has strong historic links.

30. In the longer term, more hotel capacity will be required on the island. Other than the construction of the innovative government sponsored Reywoods Beach project of 300 rooms and a possible expansion of 50 rooms to Sam Lord's Castle, few additional projects are likely to be constructed in the near future. Although planning consent for some 3,000 tourist beds is outstanding it is uncertain how many of these are likely to be completed in the near future, if at all. It is recommended, therefore, that the government undertake a survey of these outstanding planning permissions to determine how many are still active and along with their likely future timings.

31. For the future well-being of the tourist industry certain policy issues related to the future supply of tourist accommodation must be directed as a matter of urgency.

(a) Type of Accommodation

It is stated government policy to encourage medium sized hotels and aparthotels catering for the middle and upper income tourists, with preference to local ownership and to discourage the develop- ment of apartment style accommodation. This philosophy is embodied in the proposed revision to the "Hotel Aids Act." - 101 -

It is planned that the Government become much more selective in terms of which concessions are granted. An important motivation behind recent government policy has been the problem of employment. Since apartments do not require the same staff ratios as traditional hotels and aparthotels, the resulting direct employment is consequently at a lower level. On the other hand, indirect employment generated by visitors to apartments is most certainly greater. Government policy related therefore to the desired form of accommodation ought to reflect total employment generation i.e. both direct and indirect. In order to fill the immediate requirement for up-market capacity, the government should consider the feasi- bility of extending tax incentives to those hotels that by modification, modernization and refurbishment attain a higher classification status. Subject to fulfilling certain pre- scribed criteria, this policy would immediately regenerate much of the island's lower grade capacity and enable hoteliers to increase their occupancies.

(b) Sources of Finance

A major constraint to tourism development in Barbados, is the relative shortage of long-term finance for hotels, which are high cost and thought to be high risk ventures. Although both the CDB and the BDB have long traditions of providing finance to the tourism sector, by and large' this has been limited to establishments of 50 or less rooms. There is an immediate need, therefore, for long-term finance for hotels which by their nature, are characterized by lengthy pay-back periods and which should not be restricted by size of establishment.

Information Base and Organization Aspects

32. To a large extent, the nature and scale of future tourist develop- ment must depend on how government interprets the impact that tourism makes on the economic and social structure of the country and the role this industry can play in assisting government achieve its objectives.

33. There is no doubt that, carefully planned and regulated, tourism can be a major positive factor in the future development of the island. Yet, given a laissez-faire approach, much of the economic benefits may be dissipated and the impact on the Barbadian community socially disruptive.

34. Unlike other industries, the tourism product is consumed at the point of production and brings the consumer into direct contact with the producer. In order, therefore, to minimize possible negative social aspects while at the same time maximizing the likely benefits, the tourism industry should be under regular governmental scrutiny and appraisal.

35. The tourism planning process depends on two key aspects: - 102 -

(a) an adequate data base;

(b) an organizational framework with the responsibility for providing government with appropriate information on a regular basis from which to monitor the effect of government policy, as well as to determine the economic and social impacts and any changes in market requirements.

At the present time, neither of these aspects is totally adequate in Barbados.

36. Whilst the government recognizes the importance of the tourism sector, by and large, policies aimed at stimulating or regulating the develop- ment of the industry have been based on an inadequate quantitative framework. Reference has earlier been made to the lack of precision in assessing the impact of tourism. At the same time, recent studies have stressed the inadequacy of the data base related to the industry:

"Relatively little information of value regarding the net benefits of tourism to the economy can be gleaned from the data, as presently provided." 1/

"The manner in which data is (sic) gathered and processed makes it difficult for the information to be used within an agile decision-making management context." 1/

".... this means that the vital area of the impact of tourism on the island, its environment, its economy and its society--although often talked about--has been totally neglected by the data collectors." 2/

37. The findings of the Government and other studies of the market potential form only part of the data base necessary for future planning. It is recommended, therefore, that the Government:

(a) review the relationships and responsibilities of each of the government organizations operating in the tourism sector to determine the appropriate framework for future tourism planning;

(b) undertake a thorough review of the existing statistical data base in relation to its planning requirements; and

(c) initiate with some urgency an assessment of the likely costs and benefits of each market segment.

It is proposed that the Government seek technical assistance in undertaking these tasks, as a matter of urgency.

1/ "Tourism Development Plan - Barbados," OAS.

2/ "Tourism and Employment in Barbados," Dawn I, Marshall, Occasional Papers Series No. 6, Institute of Social and Economic Research (University of West Indies). - 103 -

Tourism Marketing

38. Attention has already been drawn to the need to promote Barbados as a tourist destination in the European markets. The success of the "Best of Barbados-Summer 1978" as a national holiday package recently introduced into the North American market would indicate that opportunities may well exist for extending the concept to Europe.

39. Since in Europe the ultimate success of Barbados as a holiday destination is highly dependent on the marketing and pricing policies of tour operators, it is understood that the Government have given consideration to establishing their own tour operating company. It is recommended that this alternative is thoroughly reviewed and that technical assistance should be sought.

Tourist Attractions

40. In addition to the planning and marketing activities that are critical to the successful growth of the tourism industry in Barbados, there is a need to develop the tourist content of the island by creating more attractions or extending existing facilities. As well as increasing the overall tourist attraction of the island, such action would also have an additional economic impact through increased tourist expenditures and related employment.

41. The recommendations of a preliminary tourism development plan for Barbados undertaken by the OAS included inter-alia:

(a) the construction of national parks;

(b) the development of areas of Bridgetown for tourism purposes; and

(c) the construction of a pedestrian mall along the south coast.

It is recommended, therefore, that the Government seek technical assistance, to review the efficacy of these proposals in the light of ongoing market studies and, where possible, identify new projects for future development.

42. An examination of the costs and benefits of tourism to Barbados reveals certain weaknesses in Government control systems that could lead to possible willing or unwilling abuse of existing legislations. These include:

(a) Restaurant and Hotel Tax

Estimation of likely tourist expenditures in accommodation and food indicates that revenues derived from restaurant and bed taxes are less than would be anticipated. It would appear that although the consumer is paying the taxes, the collection system is not sufficiently staffed to ensure that all establishments are passing on these receipts to Government. - 104 -

(b) Transfer Pricing

Although no evidence exists to indicate that transfer pricing actually occurs, again government departments are inadequately staffed to permit appropriate audit checks to ensure that excessively high prices are not being paid by hotels for goods and services obtained from organizations overseas.

(c) Tour Operations

A further source of possible tax evasion could occur with foreign tour operators or travel agents paying part of the hotel's fees into an overseas account.

In each instance, inadequate staff levels and control procedures could lead to a possible reduction in overall tourist receipts to the island. It is recommended, therefore, that the Government seek the technical assistance of an accountant with experience in hotel accounting to assist them develop appropriate Government audit procedures.

43. At the present time, the Government of Barbados does not permit casino development on the island. In view of the attraction of such a development, particularly to high-spending visitors it is recommended that the Government review this position. Many legitimate casino opera- tions exist that could be considered as possible joint partners in a venture that could prove to be highly profitable to the island. - 105 -

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table No.

I. POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

1.1 Population as of December 31, 1960, 1965 and 1970-77 1.2 Age Structure of Population, 1960, 1970 and 1977 1.3 Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment in 1960, 1966, 1970 and 1977 1.4 Employment By Sector, 1960, 1966, 1970 and 1977 1.5 Working Population by Occupational Group, 1960, 1966, 1970 and 1977 1.6 Education Statistics, 1966/67-76-77 1.7 Health Data and Other Social Indicators, 1966-77

II. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin, 1970-78 2.2 Growth Rates of Real GDP, 1971-78 2.3 Uses of Resources,1970-78 2.4 Projected Uses of Resources, 1978-83

III. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1973-78 3.2 Merchandise Exports (FOB) by Major Commodities, 1970-77 3.3 Merchandise Imports (CIF) by End Use Category, 1970-77 3.4 Direction of Trade, 1970-77 3.5 Merchandise Exports (FOB) to Caricom and Other Commonwealth Caribbean Countries, 1970-77 3.6 Merchandise Imports (CIF) From Caricom and Other Commonwealth Caribbean Countries, 1970-77 3.7 Projected Balance of Payments, 1978-83 3.8 Export Projections, 1979-83 3.9 Import Projections, 1979-83

IV. PUBLIC DEBT

4.1 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and Outstanding Amounts of External Public Debt Projections Based on Debt Outstanding including Undisbursed as of Dec. 31, 1977 - 106 -

V. PUBLIC FINANCES

5.1 Barbados - Central GovernmentRevenues, 1974/75-78/79 5.2 Barbados - Central GovernmentCurrent Expenditureby Economic Classification,1974/75-78/79 5.3 Central Government Capital ExpendituresBy Economic Classification,1974/75-1979/80 5.4 Barbados - Central Government Finances, 1974/75 - 1978/79 5.5 Barbados - National Insurance Board, 1974/78 5.6 Barbados - Consolidated Public Sector Finances, 1974/75 - 78/79 5.7 Barbados - Public Sector InvestmentProgram, Externally Financed Projects, 1979-83 5.8 Public Sector Investmentand Financing 1979/80 - 1983/84

VI. MONEY AND BANKING

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Banking System, 1973-78 6.2 Distributionof CommercialBank Lending to Private Sector, 1970-78 6.3 CommercialBanks Selected Interest Rates, 1968-1978

VII. PRICES AND WAGES

7.1 Retail Price Index, 1968-78, 1977 and 1978

VIII. SELECTED SECTORAL STATISTICS

8.1 Production of Selected AgriculturalCommodities, 1970-77 8.2 Sugar Statistics,1970-78 8.3 Productionof Selected ManufacturedGoods 8.4 Telephone Services, 1970-78 8.5 Water Services, 1970-78 8.6 ConstructionData, 1970-77 - 107 -

Table 1.1: POPULATTON AS OF DECEMBER 31, 1960, 1965 AND 1970-77 (persons '000)

Estimated 1960 1965 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Total Population 232.35 234.60 238.62 239.80 241.42 242.78 244.29 245.98 247.40 249.63

Total Births 7.83 6.36 4.88 5.18 5.30 5.08 4.85 4.68 4.59 4.33

Total Deaths 2.13 1.91 2.06 2.06 2.05 2.29 2.11 1.99 2.27 2.14

Natural Population Increase 5.70 4.45 2.82 3.12 3.25 2.79 2.74 2.69 2.32 2.18

Net Migration -4.23 -3.64 -2.30 1.94 -1.63 -1.43 -1.23 -1.00 -0.90 0.05

Net Population Increase 1.47 0.81 0.52 1.18 1.62 1.36 1.51 1.69 1.42 2.23

Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 33.5 27.2 20.5 21.7 22.1 21.0 20.0 19.2 18.7 17.0

Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 9.1 8.2 8.7 8.6 8.5 9.5 8.7 8.1 9.2 8.4

Source: Population Censuses 1960 and 1970; Barbados Statistical Service. - 108 -

Table 1.2: AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION, 1960, 1970 and 1977 (persons '000)

1960 Census 1970 Census 1977 Age Group, Male Female Total % Male Female Total % Male Female Total %

0 - 4 16.2 16.3 32.5 14.0 13.1 12.8 25.9 11.0 11.3 10.9 22.2 8.9 5 - 9 15.3 15.4 30.7 13.2 15.8 15.5 31.3 13.2 12.3 12.7 25.0 10.0 10 - 14 12.8 13.0 25.8 11.1 15.0 15.3 30.3 12.8 16.5 15.0 31.5 12.5 15 - 19 10.4 10.8 21.2 9.1 12.9 12.9 25.8 10.9 13.5 15.2 28.7 11.5 20 - 24 7.8 9.0 16.8 7.2 9.9 9.6 19.5 8.3 12.2 11.6 23.8 9.5 2 - 29 5.4 7.5 12.9 5.6 5.7 6.3 12.0 5.1 8.4 9.4 17.8 7.1 30 - 34 5.4 7.5 12.9 5.6 4.8 5.9 10.7 4.5 5.9 7.5 13.4 5.4 35 - 39 5.0 7.0 12.0 5.1 4.3 5.8 10.1 4.3 5.5 5.4 10.9 4.4 40 - 44 5.6 7.3 12.9 5.6 4.6 6.2 10.8 4.6 4.1 6.0 10.1 4.0 45 - 49 5.3 6.6 11.9 5.1 4.3 5.6 9.9 4.2 5.5 6.4 11.9 4.8 50 - 54 5.4 6.3 11.7 5.0 4.8 6.1 10.9 4.6 3.9 6.5 10.4 4.2 55 - 59 4.0 5.2 9.2 4.0 4.5 5.6 10.1 4.3 5.1 4.9 10.0 4.0 60 - 64 2.7 4.3 7.0 3.0 4.2 5.0 9.2 3.9 4.7 4.7 9.4 3.8 65 - 69 1.8 3.7 5.5 2.4 3.4 4.7 8.1 3.4 4.9 5.9 10.8 4.3 70+ 2.4 6.9 9.3 4.0 3.5 8.0 11.5 4.9 5.4 8.4 13.9 5.6

TOTAL 105.5 126.8 232.3 100.0 110.9 125.2 236.1 100.0 119.2 130.5 249.8 100.0

Source: Census in 1960 and 1970, Barbados Statistical Service estimates for 1977. - 109 -

Table 1.3: LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENTAND UNEMPLOYMENT IN 1960, 1966, 1970 AND 1977 (persons '000)

Changes over 1960a/ 1966a/ 1970a/ 1977-/ 1960-70 1966-70 1970-77

Total Labor Force 90.8C/ 93.3Al 89.8-d 103.9 -1.0 -3.5 14.1 Male 53.2 53.2 53.9 ... 0.7 0.7 ... Female 37.6 40.1 35.9 ... -1.7 -4.2 ...

Total Employed 83.7 81.1 82.3 87.6 -1.4 1.2 5.3 Male 49.9 48.3 50.4 ... 0.5 2.1 Female 33.8 32.8 31.9 ... -1.9 -0.9

Total Unemployed 7.1 12.2 7.5 16.3 0.4 -4.7 8.8 Male 3.3 4.9 3.5 ... 0.2 -1.4 Female 3.8 7.3 4.0 ... 0.2 -3.3

Total Unemployment Rate (%) 7.8 13.1 8.4 15.7 Male Unemployment 6.2 Rate (%) 6.2 9.2 6.5 ... Female Unemployment Rate (%) 10.1 18.2 11.1 ...

a/ As of April 7. b/ Average of four quarterly estimates. c/ Those 15 years or older who either worked or sought jobs actively during the 12 months preceding Census. d/ Those 15 years or older who either worked or sought jobs actively during the week preceding Census. Source: Censuses in 1960 and 1970, and Labor Force Surveys in 1966 and 1977. - 110 -

Table 1.4: EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1960, 1966, 1970 AND 1977 (persons '000)

1960 1966 1970 1977 Employ- Employ- Employ- Employ-- Absolute Changes Over ment % ment % ment % ment % 1960-66 1966-70 1970-77

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Male 13.1 14.3 8.6 5.4 Female 8.9 8.6 5.1 3.5 Total 22.1 26.4 22.9 28.2 13.6 16.5 8.7 9.6 0.8 -9.3 -4.9 Mining and Quarrying Male 0.4 0.2 0.3 Female 0.1 - - Total 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 ...... -0.3 0.1 ... Manufacturing Male 8.9 6.7 7.8 Female 3.8 2.1 4.4 Total 12.7 15.2 8.8 10.9 12.3 14.9 14.8 16.4 -3.9 3.5 1.5 Construction Male 8.7 7.4 10.4 Female 0.2 0.2 0.3 Total 8.9 10.6 7.6 9.4 10.7 13.0 7.7 8.5 -1.3 3.1 -5.3 Electricity, Gas, Water Male 0.8 1.0 1.0 Female - 0.1 0.1 Total 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 - -0.8 Commerce Male 6.9 7.2 6.0 Female 7.6 7.1 6.1 Total 14.5 17.3 14.3 17.6 12.1 14.7 17.4 19.3 -0.2 -2.2 5.3 Transport, Storage and Communications Male 4.1 4.5 4.1 Female 0.2 0.6 0.6 Total 4.4 5.2 5.1 6.3 4.6 5.6 5.5 6.1 0.7 -0.5 0.9 Services Male 7.0 7.0 12.3 Female 12.9 14.1 15.3 Total 19.9 23.8 21.1 26.0 27.6 33.5 35.8 39.7 1.2 6.5 2.3

TOTAL 49.9 Male 49.9 48.3 50.4 Female 33.8 32.8 31.9 Total 83.7 100.0 81.1 100.0 82.3 100.0 90.2 100.0 -2.6 1.2 7.9

a/ Under construction

- = less than 0.1

Source: Population Censuses in 1960 and 1970 and Labor Surveys in 1966 and 1977. - ill -

Table 1.5: WORKING POPULATION BY OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, 1960, 1966, 1970 AND 1977 (persons '000)

1960 1966 1970 1977 Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

1. Professional, Technical and Related Workers 2.2 2.1 4.3 3.0 3.0 6.0 4.6 3.0 7.6 ...... 10.0 2. Administrative and Managerial Personnel 1.6 1.0 2.6 2.1 0.4 2.5 1.0 0.1 1.1 ...... 2.3 3. Clerical Workers 1.8 1.9 3.7 3.4 4.1 7.5 3.1 4.3 7.4 ...... 13.2 4. Sales Workers 2.6 5.7 8.2 2.2 4.3 6.5 3.1 4.3 7.4 ... 8.8 5. Agricultural Workers, Fishermen, etc. 12.2 8.9 21.0 13.7 8.6 22.3 8.2 4.6 12.8 ...... 9.6 6. Production Process Workers, Quarry Workers, etc 3.5 0.4 4.0 4.5 0.8 5.3 4.1 0.9 5.0 ...... 6.1 7. Skilled Craftsmen (Shoemakers, Elec. Fitters, Plumbers, etc.) 13.9 3.3 17.2 9.2 2.9 12.1 19.2 3.9 23.1 ...... 5.6 8. Transport, Printing, Carpentry a/ (and others not elsewhere 7.4 0.2 7.6 6.8 0.2 7.0 1.1 0.1 1.2 ...... 18.5- classified) 9. Service Workers 4.7 10.3 15.1 3.5 8.5 12.0 6.1 10.7 16.8 ...... 13.2

TOTAL 49.9 33.8 83.7 48.3 32.8 81.1 50.4 31.9 82.3 ... 87.6

a/ In 1977, this group has become much larger than in the past as workers not elsewhere classified have been brought into this category.

Source: Censuses 1960, 1970 and Labor Force Surveys 1966, 1977. -11 2-

Table 1.6 : EDUCATION SlAYISTICS, 19b6/b7-76-7/

1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77

Enrollments

Primary Education 44.752 __ 44,515 45,381 43,710 42,003 40,511 40,022 38,710 i) Government 44,067 43,759 43,448 43,218 42,465 40,785 39,067 37,563 37,047 35,710 35,829 ii) Unaided 993 1,297 2,916 2,925 2,936 2,948 2,975 3,000

Secondary Education 25,462 20,789 25,435 21,399 21,508 21,762 24,059 24,565 25,103 26,213 27,679 i) Government 11,800 13,241 13,928 14,055 14,407 15,154 16,424 17,059 17,769 19,042 19,064 1) Comprehensive (6,885) (8,039) (8,640) (8,747) (9,160) (9,918) (11,135) (11,681) (12,303) (13,518) (13,438) 2) Grammar (4,915) (5,202) (5,288) (5,308) (5,247) (5,236) (5,289) (5,378) (5,466) (5,524) (5,626) ii) Government Aided 7,249 6,996 6,899 4,094 7,635 7,506 7,334 7,171 6,554 iii) Unaided 299 348 292 2,514 2,061

Vocational Training 2,362 _ 1,199 1,785

Higher Education 628 440 677 1,081 1,777 i) Teacher Training 255 147 - 222 218 246 262 278 268 238 242 ii) University 373 293 565 645 459 831 1,539

Teachers Primary Education 1,522 1,588 1,667 i) Government 1,277 1,459 900 1,538 1,562 1,413 1,438 1,414 1,419 1,390 1,469 ii) Unaided 52 50 105

Secondary Education 808 987 1,072 1,071 1,179 1,238 1,288 1,311 i) Government 476 669 746 788 729 790 841 902 967 997 1) Comprehensive (402) (477) (505) (453) (521) (548) (600) (661) (690) 2) Grammar (267) (269) (283) (276) (269) (293) (302) (306) (307) ii) Governm.ent Aided 309 314 274 338 336 321 314 iii) Unaided 9 12 9

Vocational Training 141 _64 __

Higher Education 115 67 i) Teacher Training 30 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 ii) University 85 45

Source: Ministry of Education; LUIESCOYearbook, - 113 -

Table 1.7: EEDLTI!TDATA AND OTHFR SOCIAL INDICATORS, 1966-77

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Inrant Mortality per 1,000 Live Births 48 54 46 42 46 29 34 34 34 29 29 24 Hospitals a/ 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 Hlospital Beds 2,806 2,806 2,625 2,413 2,445 2,263 2,216 2,190 2,130 2,161 2,141 2,146 Nurses 299 351 337 338 427 460 513 541 593 645 631 633 Doctors 102 106 121 125 125 130 140 160 160 166 166 170 Der.tists 17 17 15 14 13 14 15 16 16 17 17 18 Nursing Students 147 150 250 243 266 253 269 234 243 212 275 242 Access to Piped Water (% population) House Connections for Entire Country 61.5 61.8 64.7 67.5 70.7 80.0 Easy Access to Piped Water 38.5 38.2 35.3 32.5 29.3 20.0 Connections of Electricity b/ (% of population) Bridgetown and St. Michael 69.0 Rest of Barbados

a/ 10 government-owned and rest private. b/ Facilities are available to 90% of population (100% in St. Michael).

Source: Ministry of Health. - 114 -

Table 2.1: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN, 1970-78 (million of BDS$ of 1976)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Sugar Agriculture 62.5 54.7 44.8 47.3 50.5 45.0 47.3 55.1 46.4 Other agriculture 25.8 25.3 28.6 29.5 26.4 29.4 31.9 27.0 27.0 Mining and Quarrying 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 Manufacturing Industry 50.1 54.6 60.5 64.2 61.2 66.5 78.4 79.1 84.0 Electricity, Gas & Water 8.6 9.5 11.0 12.1 11.3 11.9 12.7 14.5 16.7 Construction 63.1 58.1 55.3 57.0 55.3 46.3 52.4 45.2 45.9 Wholesale & Retail Trade 142.0 144.3 154.8 155.3 143.0 144.7 147.7 150.6 156.4 Tourism 49.4 59.7 66.5 70.1 72.8 58.2 60.2 69.8 87.5 Transportation, Storage & Communication 42.5 44.7 48.9 51.3 53.0 52.7 53.9 53.9 53.9 Business and General Service 61.8 62.5 92.0 116.0 142.5 139.2 137.1 139.8 142.5 Government Services 62.6 73.3 73.6 74.1 74.8 85.7 90.8 91.1 96.8

GDP (factor cost) 570.3 588.8 638.1 678.7 692.3 680.6 714.4 727.8 758.8

Source: Mission estimates - 115 -

Table 2.2: GROWTH RATES OF REAL GDP, 1971-78

(Percent)

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Sugar -12.5 -18.0 5.5 6.8 -10.9 5.1 16.5 -15.8

Other Agriculture -1.7 12.8 3.1 -10.4 11.4 8.5 -15.4 0

Mining and Quarrying 8.6 0 -15.8 -15.6 -26.7 81.8 -15.0 0

Manufacturing Industry 9.0 10.8 6.1 -4.7 8.7 17.9 -10.7 6.2

Electricity, Gas and Water 11.2 15.6 9.5 -6.5 5.3 6.7 14.2 15.2

Construction -7.9 -4.9 3.0 -2.9 -16.3 13.2 -13.7 1.5

Wholesale and Retail Trade 1.6 7.3 0.3 -7.9 1.2 2.1 2.0 3.9

Tourism 20.9 11.3 5.5 3.8 -20.1 3.4 15.9 25.4

Transportation & Storage & Communication 5.3 9.3 4.9 3.4 -0.6 2.3 0 0

Business and General Services 1.1 47.2 26.2 22.8 -2.3 -1.5 2.0 1.9

Government Services 17.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 14.6 6.0 0.3 6.3

GDP (factor cost) 3.2 8.4 6.4 2.0 -1.7 5.0 1.9 4.3

Source: Mission estimates - 116 -

Table 2.3: USES OF RESOURCES, 1970-78

(1976 BDS$ million)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

GDP at Factor Cost 570.3 588,8 638.1 678,7 692.3 680.6 714,4 727.8 758.8

Net Indirect Taxes 85.2 88.4 94.4 86,5 70.3 81.3 79.9 92.5 93.1

GDP at Market Prices 655.5 676,6 732.5 765.2 762.6 761.9 794.3 820.3 851.9

Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 648.6 623.3 624.1 600.3 623.2 585.2 562.6 592.2 615.0 Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 527.3 558.4 547.9 525.1 498.3 406.3 443.8 516.2 590.8 Resource Gap 121.3 64.9 76.2 75.2 124.9 178.9 118.8 76.0 24.2

Total Resources 776.8 741.5 808.7 840.4 887.5 940.8 913.1 896.3 876.1

Fixed Investment 199.6 183.9 183.2 194.1 209.3 198.0 168.6 180.6 186.3 Public 25.1 26.2 34.0 35.1 35.8 41.8 50.3 E2.9 46.3 Private 174.5 157.7 149.2 159.0 173.5 156.2 118.3 117.7 140.0

Consumption 577,2 557.6 625.5 646,3 678.2 742.8 744.5 715.7 689.8 Public 106.1 110.5 119.9 130.6 114.3 116.6 119.7 129.1 133.6 Private a' 471,1 447.1 506,3 516.3 563.9 626.2 624.8 586.6 556.2

a/ Estimated as a residual; includes changes in inventories.

Source: Mission estimates. - 117 -

Table 2.4: PROJECTED USES OF RESOURCES, 1978-83 (1976 BDS$ million)

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

GDP at Factor Cost 758.8 804.6 836.6 881.9 930.4 982.1

Net Indirect Taxes 93.1 95.6 98.2 101.7 106.3 111.7

GDP at Market Prices 851.9 900.2 934.8 983.6 1,036.7 1,093.4

Imports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 615.0 663.8 699.7 746.2 797.0 851.1 Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services 590.8 640.2 664.9 711.8 763.6 820.2 Resource Gap 24.2 23.6 34.8 34.4 33.4 30.9

Total Resources 876.1 923.8 969.6 1,018.0 1,070.1 1,124.3

Fixed Investment 186.3 207.2 220.0 234.9 252.4 270.4 Public 46.3 59.4 63.9 70.0 78.3 86.6 Private 140.0 147.8 156.1 164.9 174.1 183.8

Consumption 689.8 716.6 749.6 783.1 817.7 853.9 Public 133.6 136.7 139.8 143.0 146.2 149.5 Private a! 556.2 579.9 609.8 640.1 671.5 704.4

a/ Estimated as a residual; includes changes in inventories.

Source: Mission estimates. - 118 -

Table 3.1: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1973-78

(US$ million)

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Exports of Goods, NFS 163.6 212.1 221.4 221.9 273.1 335.4

Imports of Goods, NFS 201.1 236.3 258.1 281.3 319.4 361.3 Resources Balance -37.5 -24.2 -36.7 -59.4 -46.3 -25.9

Net Factor Services -1.6 2.4 .9 7.1 .4 -5.0 Interest on Public M< Debt (-.3) (-2.5) (-2.3) (-1.9) (-1.9) (-3.2) Other Factor Services (net) (-1.3) (4.9) (3.2) (9.0) (4.6) (-1.8)

Current Transfers 6.7 6.5 7.2 11.6 11.6 17.5

Current Account Balance -32.4 -15.3 -28.6 -40.7 -34.3 -13.4

Net Public Disbursements 17.9 2.4 1.5 6.3 21.1 13.2 Gross Disbursements 21.1 3.6 3.2 8.1 28.1 17.6 (Project Related) a/ (3.6) (3.2) (8.1) (18.1) (7.6) (Other) ... (0) (0) (0) (10.0) (10.0) Amortization 3.2 -1.2 -1.7 -1.8 -7.0 -4.4

Other Capital b/ 15.4 16.4 43.0 17.1 19.5 31.0

Capital Account Balance 33.3 18.8 44.5 23.4 40.6 44.2

Change in Net International Reserves (- increase) -.9 -3.5 -15.9 17.3 -6.3 -30.8

Memoranda

Net International Reserves c/ 16.2 19.7 35.6 18.3 24.6 55.4

(in months) dl

Net International Reserves 1.0 1.1 1.8 .8 .9 1.8

a/ Includes capital grants b/ Includes errors and omissions. c/ End of year. d/ Number of months of merchandise imports, at the rate recorded during the following 12 months.

Source: Central Bank of Barbados, Mission Estimates. - 119 -

Table 3.2: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (FOB) BY MAJOR COMMODITIES, 1970-77 (BDS$ million)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

A. Total Domestic Exports 62.1 53.2 63.1 83.7 123.0 176.9 132.8 151.1

Primary Products 39.5 33.3 34.0 42.4 71.4 115.4 61.5 67.4 Sugar 29.4 26.4 27.1 32.3 52.2 95.1 45.0 50.6 Molasses 4.0 3.6 3.3 3.4 10.5 11.8 9.3 5.8 Other 6.1 3.3 3.6 6.7 8.7 8.5 7.2 11.0

Manufactured Products 22.5 19.9 29.1 41.3 51.7 61.5 7,1.2 83.7 Rum 3.2 4.1 4.6 2.5 5.0 4.3 4.4 5.7 Clothing 3.7 4.2 5.4 10.3 18.5 26.8 30.0 37.2 Other 15.6 11.6 19.1 28.5 28.2 30.4 36.8 40.8

B. Reexports 17.0 27.2 21.4 20.2 49.4 40.2 39.6 41.9

Petroleum and Petroleum Products 7.4 14.4 11.0 9.0 34.6 27.1 21.4 24.8 Other 9.6 12.8 10.4 11.2 14.8 13.1 18.2 17.1

C. Total Adjusted Exports 79.1 80.4 84.5 103.9 172.4 217.0 172.4 193.0

Source: Annual Overseas Trade Reports; Statistical Service. - 120 -

Table 3.3 MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (CIF) BY END USE CATEGORY, 1970-77 (BDS$ million)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

TOTAL 235.0 243.7 270.4 328.6 418.3 437.4 474.1 545.1

Consumer Goods 102.2 109.6 126.4 141.2 150.8 153.4 198.6 231.1 Food 46.8 52.5 60.5 72.7 77.9 79.8 105.6 116.1 Other Non-durables 26.5 28.6 35.0 38.4 47.0 49.1 60.8 74.2 Durables 28.9 28.6 30.9 30.1 25.8 24.5 32.1 40.9

Raw Materials& Intermediate Goods 54.9 57.5 66.3 90.6 159.7 164.3 141.4 160.8 Fuels and Lubricants 13.0 15.9 15.8 21.8 66.4 73.8 61.7 72.3 Chemicals 8.1 8.7 10.9 14.3 18.9 20.0 22.1 24.5 Textiles 13.4 12.8 15.2 20.2 19.2 19.5 25.2 26.2 Other 20.5 20.1 24.4 34.2 55.2 51.0 32.5 37.8

Capital Goods 65.4 61.3 61.6 75.5 88.9 98.0 108.9 129.7 Building Materials 24.3 23.4 25.7 27.7 36.3 38.0 39.7 44.3 Machinery and Transport Equipment 41.1 37.9 35.9 47.9 52.6 60.0 69.3 85.4

Others 12.5 15.3 16.1 21.3 18.9 21.7 25.1 23.6

Consumer Goods: Food SITC 0, 1 (excluding 041, 047 and 12) Other Non-durables = SITC 12, 42, 541, 55, 665-6, 841, 851, 892 and 895 Durables = SITC 667, 696-7, 724.1, 724.2, 725, 732.1, 821, 864, 891, 893-4, 896-7, 899 Raw Materials and Intermediate Goods: Fuels and Lubricants = SITC 3 Chemicals = SITC 5 (excluding 541, 55) Textiles = SITC 65 Others = SITC 041-7, 2 (excluding 24), 4 (excluding 42), 61, 62 (ex- cluding 629.1), 641-2, 67 (excluding 673, 678), 68, 692, 693. Capital Goods: Building Materials = SITC 24, 631-2, 661-4, 673, 678, 691, 694, 698,812 Machinery and Transport Equipment = SITC 629.1, 695, 71, 72 (excluding 724-5), 73 (excluding 732.1), 861. Others: SITC, Other 6, Other 7, 862-3, Other 8, Other 9

Source: Barbados Overseas Trade Annuals, Barbados Statistical Service, mission estimates. - 121 -

Table 3.4: DIRECTION OF TRADE, 1970-77

(BDS$ million)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Imports (c.i.f.) 235.0 243.7 270.4 328.6 418.3 437.2 474.1 545.1

EEC a/ 94.5 97.7 102.4 113.2 124.1 128.8 123.8 141.8 (United Kingdom) ( 71.5) ( 73.2) ( 72.6) ( 80.8) ( 85.7) ( 94.9) ( 88.5) (103.0)

us 49.3 44.4 51.9 69.6 81.1 83.2 108.9 133.2 CARICOM 26.6 30.1 36.7 43.0 73.0 71.9 82.2 88.7 Canada 24.6 25.0 27.1 37.3 38.0 38.1 40.7 38.9 Other 39.9 46.6 52.3 65.6 102.1 115.3 118.5 142.4

Exports (f.o.b.) b/ 79.1 80.3 84.5 103.7 175.0 217.9 172.5 193.0

EEC a/ 30.9 28.4 29.6 35.9 28.8 64.1 31.8 39.0 (United Kingdom) ( 30.5) ( 28.0) ( 29.0) ( 34.5) ( 27.2) ( 58.7) ( 15.6) C 15.7)

US 15.5 8.6 10.6 17.2 47.3 65.7 52.8 61.7 CARICOM 17.3 19.5 23.9 29.0 38.8 40.4 45.8 46.7 Canada 3.6 4.0 4.9 5.8 9.8 12.7 12.2 10.7 Other 11.7 19.9 15.4 15.8 50.2 34.9 29.9 35.0

a/ Belgium-Luxembourg,Denmark, France, Germany FR, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands and UK.

b/ Includes re-exports.

Sources: Overseas Trade Reports; Barbados Statistical Service. - 122 -

Table 3.5: IERCIIANDISEEXPORTS (FOB) TO CARICOM AND OTHER CO"IONWEALTH CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 1970-77

(BDS$ '000)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Guyana 1,072 1,225 1,732 2,618 3,570 3,432 5,056 3,490

Trinidad and Tobago 3,156 4,580 6,590 8,042 10,009 12,206 17,949 21,108

Jamaica 653 1,064 2,274 4,142 7,094 8,567 7,236 4,694

Dominica 1,506 1,424 1,373 1,413 1,552 1,683 1,606 1,821

Grenada 1,953 1,770 1,935 1,920 2,186 2,310 2,318 3,039

St. Vincent (including Grenadines) 2,144 2,000 2,008 2,279 4,307 3,112 2,903 3,052

St. Lucia 2,910 3,263 3,340 3,920 4,592 3,927 4,593 5,191

Montserrat 483 444 418 440 616 555 646 478

Antigua 1,801 1,909 2,086 2,035 2,404 2,221 1,801 2,228

St. Kitts-Nevis, Anguilla 1,065 1,099 1,432 1,414 1,448 1,629 1,679 1,551

Belize 2 1 3 10 22 4 8 42

Other a/ 601 693 730 777 971 804 760 752

TOTAL CARICOM 17,346 19,472 23,921 29,011 38,771 40,448 46,555 47,446

a/ Bahamas, Bermuda and British Virgin Islands.

Source: Annual Overseas Trade Yearbook; Barbados Statistical Service. - 123 -

Table 3.6: MERCHANDISE IMPORTS (CIF) FROM CARICOM AND OTHER COMMONW7EALTH CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES, 1970-77

(BDS$ '000)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Guyana 4,309 4,963 5,893 5,702 8,110 10,115 9,709 10,430

Trinidad and Tobago 16,920 18,418 22,515 26,179 49,549 44,537 53,065 54,379

Jamaica 3,998 4,153 5,704 7,335 10,490 11,514 13,771 15,890

Dominica 351 499 493 366 416 912 1,062 1,319

Grenada 30 25 51 218 87 123 66 66

St. Vincent (including Grenadines) 438 1,089 938 1,144 1,011 1,036 748 937

St. Lucia 188 195 523 1,021 1,820 2,345 2,880 4,456

Montserrat 17 9 14 40 34 18 12 14

Antigua 192 103 172 184 209 224 515 517

St. Kitts-Nevis, Anguilla 8 3 6 25 25 45 220 259

Belize 99 546 191 649 541 760 106 480

Other a/ 95 67 161 106. 725 282 48 63

TOTAL CARICOM 26,644 30,071 36,661 42,969 73,018 71,909 82,202 88,810

a/ Bahamas, Bermuda and British Virgin Islands.

Source: Annual Overseas Trade Yearbook; Barbados StatisticalService. - 124 -

Table 3.7 PROJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1978-83

(US$ million)

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Exports of Goods and Non- Factor Services 335.4 394.6 446.9 515.0 589.4 669.9 Imports of Goods and Non- Factor Services 361.3 424.5 475.9 537.6 608.9 689.4 Resource Balance -25.9 -29.9 -29.0 -22.6 -19.5 -19.5

Net Factor Services -5.0 -7.4 -8.6 -10.0 -11.9 -13.5 Interest on Public M< Debt (-3.2) (-3.7) (-3.9) (-3.9) (-4.0) (-3.7) Other Fector Services (net) (-1.8) (-3.7) (-4.7) (-6.1) (-7.9) (-9.8)

Current Transfers 17.5 17.5 18.2 19.2 20.2 21.7

Current Account Balance -13.4 -19.8 -19.4 -13.4 -11.2 -11.3

Net Public Disbursements 13.2 12.7 24.9 20.7 25.4 29.8 Gross Disbursements 17.6 19.5 33.1 29.7 34.1 36.0 (Project Related) (7.6) (14.5) (29.1) (27.2) (34.1) (36.0) (Other) al (10.0) (5.0) (4.0) (2.5) (0) (0) Amortization -4.4 -6.8 -8.2 -9.0 -8.7 -6.2

Other Capital bl 3,.0 20.0 20.0 19.5 19.5 22.5

Capital Account Balance 44.2 32.7 44.9 40.2 44.9 52.3

Change in Reserves (- increase) -30.8 -12.9 -25.5 -26.8 33.7 -41.0 l4emoranda

Net International Reserves -c 55.4 68.3 93.8 120.6 154.3 195.3

(in months) d/

Net International Reserves 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.1 3.5

a/ Includes a 1978 US$10 million loan, and projected disbursements of CDF assistance. b/ Includes errors and omissions. cl End of year. d/ Number of months of merchandise imports, at the rate recordpd diiring the followinz 12 months. - 125 -

Table 3.8 EXPORT PROJECTIONS, 1979-83 (US$ Million)

Actual Estimated P R O J E C T E D 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Constant (1976 Prices)

Sugar 28.7 26.0 34.5 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.2 Other Domestic 38.9 50.8 56.1 63.5 71.9 81.4 92.2 Total Merchandise 86.3 89.6 107.1 111.5 121.7 133.4 146.3 Nonfactor Services 171.8 205.8 213.0 220.9 234.2 248.4 263.8 Total Goods and NFS 258.1 295.4 320.1 332.4 355.9 381.8 410.1

Price Indices (1976 = 100)

Sugar 93.6 103.0 103.0 109.2 115.7 122.7 130.1 Other Domestic 119.9 129.5 140.6 149.2 158.1 167.5 177.6 Total Merchandise 105.7 114.8 120.8 128.1 135.8 143.9 152.6 Nonfactor Services 105.9 113.0 124.5 137.7 149.3 159.9 169.3 Total Foods and NFS 105.8 113.5 123.3 134.4 144.7 154.3 163.3

Current Prices

Sugar 26.9 26.8 35.5 32.1 34.6 37.5 40.6 Other Domestic 46.6 65.8 78.9 94.7 113.7 136.4 163.7 Total Merchandise 91.2 102.9 129.4 142.8 165.3 192.0 223.3 Nonfactor Services 181.9 232.5 265.2 304.1 349.6 397.3 446.5 Total Goods and NFS 273.1 335.4 394.6 446.9 514.9 589.3 669.8

Source: Mission Estimates. - 126 -

Table 3.9: IPIPORTPROJECTIONS, 1979-83

(US$ million)

Actual Estimated Projected 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

Constant (1976) Prices Food and Bevercges 47.6 51.1 53.9 56.2 60.0 64.1 68.4 Other Consumer Goods 48.0 42.4 42.9 44.6 46.9 49.4 52.1 Fuels and Lubricants 22.0 15.6 21.4 22.5 24.0 25.7 27.5 Other Intermediate Goods 55.4 58.4 63.2 68.2 73.7 79.6 85.9 Capital Goods 54.0 61.2 68.2 72.4 77.3 83.0 88.9 Total Merchandise 252.1 267.2 288.6 304.2 324.4 346.5 370.0 Nonfactor Services 44.0 40.3 43.3 45.6 48.7 52.0 55.5 Total Goods and NFS 296.1 307.5 331.9 349.3 373.1 398.5 425.5

Price Indices (1976 = 100) Food and Beverage.s 108.3 118.5 128.3 136.2 144.3 153.0 162.2 Other Consumer Goods 108.3 118.5 128.3 136.2 144.3 153.0 162.2 Fuels and Lubricants 107.8 110.4 123.5 133.9 141.7 150.4 159.5 Other Intermediate Gods 108.3 118.5 128.3 136.2 144.3 153.0 162.2 Capital Goods 108.3 118.5 128.3 136.2 144.3 153.0 162.2 Total Merchandise 108.2 118.0 127.9 136.0 144.1 152.8 162.0 Nonfactor Services 105.9 114.1 127.9 136.0 143.9 152.7 162.0 Total Goods and NFS 107.9 117.5 127.9 136.0 144.1 152.8 162.0

Current Prices Food and Beverages 51.6 60.6 69.2 76.6 86.6 98.0 111.0 Other Consumer Goods 52.0 50.3 55.1 60.7 67.7 75.6 84.5 Fuels and Lubricants 23.7 17.2 26.4 30.1 34.0 38.7 43.9 Other Intermediate Goods 60.0 69.2 81.1 92.9 106.4 121.8 139.4 Capital Goods 58.5 72.5 87.5 98.6 111.6 127.0 144.2 Other 27.0 45.5 49.8 54.9 61.2 68.4 76.4 Total Merchandise 272.8 315.3 369.1 413.8 467.5 529.5 599.4 Nonfactor Services 46.6 46.0 55.4 62.0 70.1 79.4 89.9 Total Goods and NFS 319.4 361.3 424.5 475.8 537.6 608.9 689.3

Source: mirjSicrestimates - 127 -

Table 4.1: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT Page 1 of 6

PROdJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC 31. 1977

INCLUDES ONLY OEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - OEC 31, 1978 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR SUPPLIERS CREDITS YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 0 OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBUPSED: MENTS MENTS ------LATIONS MENT * PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL :() (2) (3) (4) ()6(5) (7) (8) (9)

1972 ------1973 - 927 927 12 2 14 - -48 1974 867 867 1,057 37 166 119 285 - 13 1975 747 1,771 558 916 217 105 322 _ -276 1976 1,280 1,836 - 496 339 101 440 - -273 1977 1,224 1.224 - 379 45 424 - 111 1978 956 956

THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED ......

1978 956 956 - 385 60 445 - - 1979 571 571 - - 286 36 322 1 1980 286 286 - - 232 17 249 - -1 1981 53 53 - - 53 4 57 -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE - 128 -

Table 4.1: SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT Page 2 of D

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1977

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC 31, 1978 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T P A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R 1 N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C F P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------LATIONS MENT * PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL (1) (2) (3) (4) (S) (6) (7) (B) (9)

1972 - - - - _ _ _ _ 1973 - - 19,018 19,018 - - - -1 1974 19,017 19.017 - - 1,049 2.102 3,151 -1 1975 17,969 17,969 - - 1.464 1.881 3,345 - - 1976 16.505- 16,505 1,500 1.000 1.464 1.324 2.788 - - 1977 16.041 16,541 5,700 5.983 3,481 1,008 4,489 - 1978 18.543 18.760

...... THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * . . . . .

1978 18.543 18,760 10,000 10.217 3,731 1,674 5,405 - - 1979 25,029 25,029 - - 4,270 2,186 6,456 - - 1980 20,759 20,759 - - 5,324 1,748 7,072 1981 15,435 15,435 - - 5,021 1,275 6.296 - - 1982 10,414 10.414 - - 3.021 865 3,886 - - 1983 7,392 7,392 - - 3,021 593 3,614 - -1 1984 4,370 4,370 - - 2,411 327 2,738 -- 1985 1.959 1,959 - - 1.142 126 1.268 - - 1986 817 817 - - 233 64 297 - -1 1987 583 583 - - 233 43 276 - - 1988 350 350 - - 233 21 254 - - 1989 117 117 - - 117 3 120 -

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. - 129 - Page 3 of 6

Table 4.1: SERVICE PAYMENTS. COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1977

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED UAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31. 1978 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR BONDS YEAR : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E P I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------:------LATIONS MENT PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) : (9)

1972 13.975 13,975 - - 6,465 726 7,191 - -923 1973 6.587 6,587 - - 3,201 336 3,537 - 99 1974 3.485 3.485 - - - 228 228 - 38 1975 3,523 3,523 - - 232 232 - 70 1976 3,593 3,593 - - - 234 234 - - 1977 3,593 3,593 - - 2,976 143 3,119 - -617 1978 - _

* . . . . . THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED*

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. - 130 - Page 4 of 6 Table 4.1: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS. DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1977

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1978 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR MULTILATERAL LOANS YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N 5 0 U B I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING : COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------:------: LATIONS MENT * PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

I 972 1973 ------1974 - - - - _ _ _ 1975 - - 9.750 - - 38 38 - - 1976 - 9,750 9,500 694 - 119 119 - 12 1977 694 19,262 12,524 5,972 _ 274 274 - 303 1978 7,036 32,089

...... THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED ......

1978 7,036 32,089 9.000 3,189 - 695 695 - - 1979 10,225 41.089 - 5,010 - 917 917 - - 1980 15,236 41.0o9 - 6,530 219 1,120 1,339 - - 1981 21.546 40.870 - 6.410 245 1,343 1,588 - 1982 27,711 40.625 - 4.878 764 1.538 2,302 - - 1983 31.824 39.861 - 3.575 1,224 1.634 2,858 - 1984 34,176 38,638 - 2.139 1.476 1.664 3,140 - 1985 34,841 37,163 - 1,142 1,847 1.629 3,476 - -1 1986 34,133 35,318 - 732 1,990 1,564 3,554 - 2 1987 32,877 33,327 - 450 2,030 1,496 3,526 -1 1988 31.298 31,298 - - 2,072 1,406 3,478 - -2 1989 29.224 29,224 - _ 2.101 1,292 3,393 - - 1990 27,123 27,123 - - 2,131 1,174 3,305 - 1 1991 24.993 24,993 - - 2,165 1,057 3,222 - - 1992 22.828 22,828 - - 2,201 937 3,138 - I

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE, - 131 - Page 5 of 6

Table 4.1: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL FUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC. 31, 1977

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1978 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TYPE OF CREDITOR BILATERAL LOANS YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N 5 0 U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOO

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY :UNDISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------:------LATIONS MENT * PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL :() : (2) (3) : (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1972 288 2,843 1,666 916 - - - - 10 1973 1.202 4,519 10,558 1,181 - - - - 46 1974 2.388 15,123 - 2.067 - 64 64 - 71 1975 4,437 15.194 4,720 591 - 73 73 - -374 1976 4,920 19,540 - 3,523 - 131 131 - -386 1977 8.398 19,154 10,000 11,920 167 423 590 - -1.485 1978 19,446 27.502

* * * - THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * *

1978 19.446 27,502 - 3,477 267 907 1,174 - -1 1979 22,656 27,234 - 2.553 2.267 989 3.256 - - 1980 22.942 24,967 - 1.301 2,466 916 3,3B2 . - -1 1981 21,776 22.500 - 422 3,664 803 4,467 - -1 1982 18,533 18.835 - 211 3.732 606 4,338 -- 1983 15,011 15,103 - 91 800 403 1,203 - - 1984 14,303 14,303 - - 800 376 1.176 - -2 1985 13,501 13,501 - - 800 348 1,t48 -- 1986 12,701 12.701 - - 680 321 1,001 - - 1987 12,021 12,021 - - 680 302 982 - - 1988 11,341 11,341 - - 680 284 964 - -3 1989 10,658 10,658 - - 680 265 945 - - 1990 9,978 9.978 - - 680 246 926 - 1991 9,298 9.298 - - 680 228 908 - - 1992 8,618 8.618 - - 680 209 889 - -1

THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. - 132 - Page 6 of 6 Table 4.1: SERVICE PAYMENTS, COMMITMENTS, DISBURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT

PROJECTIONS BASED ON DEBT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED AS OF DEC, 31, 1977

INCLUDES ONLY DEBT COMMITTED JAN. 1, 1900 - DEC. 31, 1978 DEBT REPAYABLE IN FOREIGN CURRENCY AND GOODS (IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS) TOTAL YEAR DEBT OUTSTANDING AT T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES BEGINNING OF PERIOD

DISBURSED : INCLUDING COMMIT- DISBURSE- S E R V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- ADJUST- ONLY :UNOISBURSED: MENTS MENTS ------:------:------LATIONS MENT * PRINCIPAL INTEREST TOTAL (1) : (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9)

1972 14,263 16,818 1,666 916 6,465 726 7,191 - -913 1973 7,789 11,106 30,503 21.126 3,213 338 3,551 - 96 1974 25.757 38.492 1,057 2,104 1,215 2,513 3,728 - 123 1975 26,676 38.457 15.028 1,507 1,681 2.329 4,010 - -580 1976 26.298 51,224 11.000 5,713 1,803 1,909 3,712 - -647 1977 29,950 59,774 28.224 23,875 7,003 1,893 8,896 - -1.6B88 1978 45,981 79,307

* # * * THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED

1978 45,981 79,307 19,000 16.883 4,383 3,336 7,719 - -1 1979 58.481 93,923 - 7,563 6,823 4,128 10,951 I 1980 59,223 87,101 - 7,831 8,241 3,801 12,042 - -2 1981 58.810 78,858 - 6.832 8.983 3,425 12,408 -1 1982 56,658 69,874 - 5,089 7.517 3,009 10,526 - -1 1983 54.227 62,356 - 3,666 5.045 2,630 7.675 - - 1984 52,849 57,311 - 2,139 4,687 2.367 7,054 - -1 1985 50,301 52,623 - 1,142 3,789 2,103 5,892 - -1 1986 47,651 48,833 - 732 2,903 1.949 4,852 - 1987 45.481 45,931 - 450 2.943 1.841 4,784 - 1988 42,989 42.989 - - 2,985 1,711 4,696 -5 1989 39,999 39,999 - - 2.898 1,560 4.458 - - 1990 37,101 37,101 - - 2,811 1,420 4.231 -1 1991 34,291 34,291 - - 2.845 1,285 4,130 - - 1992 31,446 31,446 - _ 2,881 1,146 4,027 _ _

* THIS COLUMN SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMOUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDISBURSED FROM ONE YEAR TO THE NEXT. THE MOST COMMON CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS FROM ONE CATEGORY TO ANOTHER IN THE TABLE. - 133 -

Table 5.1: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENTREVENUES, 1974/75-78/79 (BD$ million)

Estimated Budget 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80

Taxes on Net Income and Profits 69.5 82.1 93.3 105.6 130.5 156.1 Company Income Tax 27.7 30.3 28.0 34.6 44.0 50.0 Individual Income Tax 36.9 44.4 59.1 66.0 80.0 100.0 Interest Withholding Tax - - - 3.5 5.0 6.0 Other 4.9 7.4 6.1 1.5 1.5 0.1

Employment Levy - - - - 5.2 6.6

Property Taxes 8.5 8.7 11.3 11.5 12.0 15.5 Land Tax 5.1 5.7 7.3 7.2 7.5 11.0 Property Transfer Tax 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.5 Estate Succession Duties 1.4 1.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.0

Stamp Duty 0.9 0.9 1.2 2.6 2.8 3.5

Taxes on Domestic Goods and Services 30.7 41.0 43.8 53.8 64.2 70.2 Retail Sales Tax 1.6 5.7 - - - - ConsumptionTax 9.3 9.6 12.0 17.2 20.0 25.0 Excise Duties 3.8 4.1 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.9 Taxes on Motor Spirits 6.3 10.0 10.4 11.8 14.0 14.0 Motor Vehicle Duties 0.9 1.1 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 Hotel and Restaurant Tax 1.9 3.8 4.2 7.2 10.0 11.0 IHotelTax 0.9 0.6 - - - - Motor Vehicle Licenses 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.9 3.5 3.9 Business and ProfessionalLicenses 1.8 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.9 1.6 Other 2.1 2.8 6.6 6.0 6.7 5.8

Taxes on InternationalTrade 29.4 45.6 42.7 48.1 55.0 60.3 Import Duties 29.4 31.2 42.7 48.1 55.0 60.3 Export Levy - 14.4 - - - -

TOTAL TAX REVENUE 139.0 178.3 192.3 221.6 269.7 312.2

Operating Surpluses of Departmental Enterprises 2.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0

Property Income 5.2 5.8 3.7 4.5 6.0 6.5 Rents, Royalties and Dividends (0.3) (1.4) (0.7) (2.2) () (4.4) Interest (1.7) (1.4) (1.4) (1.4) () (1.1) Central Bank and Exchange Profits (3.2) (3.0) (1.6) (0.9) () (1.0)

AdministrativeFees, Fines and Other Charges 12.2 9.7 11.5 14.2 20.0 15.0

TOTAL NONTAX REVENUE 19.7 16.4 15.7 19.4 27.0 33.4

TOTAL CURRENT REVENUE 158.7 194.7 208.0 241.0 296.7 345.6

Source: Ministry of Finance & Planning, Mission Estimates - 134 -

Table 5.2: BARBADOS - CENTRAL GOVERNMENTCURRENT EXPENDITURE BY ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATION,1974/75-78/79 (BD$ million)

Estimated Budget 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80

Goods and Services 99.2 103.0 124.9 149.9 162.0 180.1 Wages and Salaries 62.0 71.7 91.5 97.0 116.0 130.0 Contributionsto Social Security 4.1 3.5 3.8 4.4 8.0 10.0 Other 33.1 27.8 29.6 48.5 38.0 40.1

Interest 13.5 13.5 13.9 18.4 25.0 31.2 Domestic 9.2 11.4 11.7 15.4 20.0 20.3 External 4.3 2.1 2.5 3.0 5.0 10.9

Transfers 42.5 53.2 69.1 75.7 83.9 91.4 Subsidies 1.1 1.4 5.7 6.6 8.0 10.0(e) Operating Deficits of Departmental Enterprises 2.6 3.1 4.1 3.5 5.0 5.1 Pensions 8.6 8.5 11.2 12.9 14.0 15.9 Other Transfers to Individuals 8.6 10.3 13.6 17.4 18.5 20.4 Non-profit Institutions 13.2 18.3 20.0 21.2 22.5 23.0(e) Rest of Public Sector 6.8 9.3 12.3 11.9 12.9 14.0(e) Regional and InternationalOrganiza- tions 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.0 3.0

TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURES 155.2 169.7 209.2 244.0 270.9 302.7

Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning, IMF, Mission Estimates - 135 - TABLE 5.3: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURES BY ECONOMIC CLASSIFICATIONS, 1974/75-1979/80

Estimate Budget 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80

Economic Classification

Acquisition of Assets 2.5 4.3 2.5 12.6 1.6 0.8 Capital Formation 14.1 19.0 41.1 41.0 27.0 72.4 Transfers 20.9 24.8 16.8 30.1 34.7 41.8 Departmental Enterprises ( 6.7) ( 7.7) ( 7.1) (13.2) (17.1) (14.4) Rest of Public Sector (12.0) (11.8) ( 8.3) (14.1) (13.3) (23.8) Other ( 2.2) ( 5.3) ( 1.4) ( 2.8> ( 4.3) t 3.6) Net Lending -0.4 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.2 1.0

TOTAL-/ 37.1 48.2 62.2 87.5 64.5 116.0

1/ Excludes some capital spending financed by the donation of goods and services.

Source: Auditor General, Ministry of Finance. - 136 -

Table 5.4: BARBADOS: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES, 1974/5 - 1978/9

(BDS$ '000)

1974/5 1975/6 1976/7 1977/8 Esti 19

Current Revenues 158.7 194.7 208.0 241.0 29 Current Expenditures 155.2 169.7 209.2 244.0 27 Current Surplus 3.5 25.0 -1.2 -3.0 2

Capital Expenditures 37.1 48.2 62.2 87.5 6

Overall Deficit -33.6 -23.2 -63.4 -90.5 -1 Financing Gross External Borrowing 4.7 3.6 14.0 37.9 3: CIDA 4.1 1.1 6.0 (6.9) ( UK - - - (-) ( CDB - - 0.8 (2.1) ( IDB - 0.4 4.3 (13.1) C Commercial Banks - - 2.0 (15.8) Other 0.6 2.1 0.9 ( - ) Less: Amortization -1.2 -1.7 -2.1 -6.9 Grants - - - 0.8 Net External Borrowing 3.5 1.9 11.9 31.8 Net Banking System 33.2 19.8 42.1 35.2 Central Bank (8.6) (-12.0) (13.6) (7.3) Commercial Banks (24.6) (31.8) (28.5) (27.9) Net Trust Companies - -0.1 - 0.2 Special Funds 0.4 0.7 -1.0 -0.7 National Insurance Fund 6.3 -0.8 11.9 10.2 1 Insurance Companies 0.8 -0.3 -0.2 3.8 Other (Residual) -10.6 2.0 -1.3 10.0 Net Domestic Financing 30.1 21.3 51.5 58.7 1 - 137 -

Table 5.5: BARBADOS - NATIONAL INSURANCE BOARD, 1974/78 (Millions of BS$)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Receipts 17.7 19.9 21.8 24.7 32.3 Contributions 13.1 14.2 15.9 18.3 25.5 Interest 4.6 5.7 5.9 6.4 6.8

Expenditures 4.4 5.8 7.3 8.7 11.0 Benefits 3.2 5.0 6.3 7.4 9.6 Administration 1.2 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4

Current Surplus 13.3 14.1 14.5 16.0 21.3

Capital Expenditure _ - 0.1 - -

Overall Surplus 13.3 14.1 14.4 16.0 21.3

Net Financing: Central Government -4.9 -0.5 -7.6 -15.4 -3.2 Debentures (-5.3) (-3.6) (-2.4) (- 5.0) ( - ) Treasury Bills (+0.4) (+3.1) (-5.2) (-10.4) (-3.2) Development Bank -1.3 -2.1 -0.8 - 0.2 -1.8 Other Governments - - - - 0.4 - Commercial Banks (Fixed Deposits) -6.1 -11.8 -6.2 - 0.9 -15.6 Other -1.0 + 0.3 +0.2 - 0.9 0.8 Barbados Light & Power - - - - -1.5

SOURCE: NATIONAL INSURANCE SCHEME - 138 - Page 1

Table 5.6: BARBADOS- CONSOLIDATEDPUBLIC SECTOR FINANCES, 1974/75-78/79 (BDS$ million)

Estimate 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79

CONSOLIDATEDPUBLIC SECTOR Current Revenue 176.6 216.7 232.1 269.2 329.5 Current Etpenditure 158.6 173.7 219.3 246.7 274.9 Current Surplus or Deficit 18.0 43.0 12.8 22.5 54.6 Capital Revenue Capital CEpenditure and Net Lending 34.2 49.9 64.0 90.8 67.3 Overall Deficit -16.2 -6.9 -51.2 -68.3 -12.7 Financing 16.5 7.5 51.1 68.0 12.7 Net External Borrowing (3,5) (1.9) (11.9) (31.4) (25.6: Net Domestic Borrowing (13.0) (5.6) (39.2) (36.6) (-12.91 Discrepancy a/ -0.3 0.6 0.1 0.3 -

I. Consolidated General Government Current Revenue 177.8 217.8 233.1 270.2 330.4 (of which: transfers from NFPEs) (1.2) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) Current Expenditure 156.6 174.9 220.3 251.2 277.9 (of which: transfers to NFPEs) (0.8) (2.1) (7.5) (7.3) (8.6) Current Surplus 21.2 42.9 12.8 19.0 52.5 Capital Expenditure and Net Lending 38.3 49.2 63.7 68.9 66.1 (of which: transfers to NFPEs) (10.4) (9.5) (8.1) (10.2) (8.0) Overall Deficit or Surplus -17.1 -6.3 -50.9 -69.9 -13.6 Financing 17.1 6.3 50.9 69.9 13.6 Net External Financing (3.5) (1.9) (11.9) (31.4) (25.6) Net Dorsestic Financing (13.6) (4.4) (39.0) (38.5) (-12.0) (of which: transfers to NFSEs) /-/ /-2.2/ /-0.5/ /-/ /-/

IA. Central Government Current Revenue 158.7 194.7 208.0 241.0 296.7 (of which: transfers from rest of General Government) (-) (14.4) (-) (-) H) (of which: transfers from NFPEs) (1.2) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) Current Expenditure 155.2 169.7 209.2 244.0 270.9 (of which: transfers to rest of General Government) (8.1) (7.8) (8.6) (9.1) (12.3) (of which: transfers to NFPEs) (0.8) (2.1) (7.5) (7.3) (8.6) Current Surplus/Deficit 3.5 25.0 -1.2 -3.0 25.8 Capital Expenditures and Net Lending b/ 37.1 48.2 62.2 87.5 64.5 (of which: transfers to rest of General Government) (1.3) (1.3) (1.9) (3.6) (4.6) (of which: transfers to NFPEs) (10.4) (9.5) (6.1) (10.2) (8.0) Overall Surplus/Deficit -33.6 -23.2 -63.4 -90.5 -38.7 Financing 33.6 23.2 63.4 90.5 38.7 Net External Financing c! (3.5) (1.9) (11.9) (31.8) (25.6) Net Domestic Financing (30.1) (21.3) (51.5) (58.7) (13.1) (of which: bhrrowing from General Government) /6.3/ 1-0.8/ /11.9/ /12.1/ /4.0/

0B. National lnsurance Scheme d/ Current Revenue 18.0 20.4 22.5 26.6 33.5 Contributions (13.5) (14.6) (16.5) (20.1) (26.4) (cf which: transfers from Central Government) /4.1/ /3.5/ /3.8/ /4.1/ /7.0/ Interest (4,5) (5.8) (6.0) (6.5) (7.1) Currcot Expenditure 4.4 6.2 7.6 9.3 11.6 Conasuption (1.2) (0.9) (1.0) (1.3) (1.4) Transfers to Private Sector (3.2) (5.3) (6.6) (8.0) (11.2) Current Surplus 13.6 14.2 14.9 17.3 21.9 Capital Expenditure - - O.1 - - Overall Surplus 13.6 14.2 14.8 17.3 21.9 Financing -13.6 -14.2 -14.8 -17.3 -21.9 Net External Financing - - - -0.4 - Net Domestic Financing -13.6 -14.2 -14.8 -16.9 -21.9 Central Government (-6.3) (0.8) (-11.9) (-10.2) (-4.0) OCther (-7.3) (-15.0) (-2.9) (-6.7) (-17.9)

IC. Consolidated Sugar Funds e/ Current Revenue 5.1 20.4 6.0 6.2 6.6 Current Expenditure 1.4 17.0 7.0 1.5 1.8 (of which: transfers to Central Government) (-) (14.4) (-)H-) F) Current Surplus 3.7 3.4 -1.0 4.7 4.8 Capital Expenditure 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 Overall Surplus 2.5 2.4 -2.4 3.3 3.2 Financing -2.5 -2.4 2.4 -3.3 -3.2 Central Government - C-) (-) (-1.9) (-) National housing Corporation - (-2.2) (-0.5) F) (-) Other Domestic Financing -2.5 (-0.2) (2.9) (-1.4) (-3.2)

ID. Industrial Development Corporation Current Revenue 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.9 (of which: Central Government) (1.5) (1.1) (1.3) (1.2) (1.3) Current Expenditure on Goods and Services 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.9 Current Surplus 0.4 0.3 0.1 - - Capital Revenue from Central Government 1.3 1.3 1.9 3.6 4.6 Capital Expenditure 1.3 1.3 1.9 3.6 4.6 Overall Surplus 0.4 0.3 0.1 - - Domestic Financing -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 - -

IE. Tourist Board Current Revenue 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 (of which: Central Government) (2.5) (3.2) (3.5) (3.8) (4.0) Current Expenditure on Goods and Services 2.5 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.0 Capital Revenue (of which: Central Government) (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) Capital Expenditure Overall Deficit Domestic Financing - 139 - Page 2

Table 5.6: BARBADOS - CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC SECTOR FINANCING, 1974/75-78/79 (BEDS million)

Estimate 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79

It. Con-olidated Nonfinancial Publia Enterprises Current Revenue 28.3 36.0 39.1 48.8 58.7 (at which: ftrm Genecal Covernment) (0.8) (2.1) (7.5) (7.3) (8.6) Correct Expendlture 31.5 35.9 39.1 45.3 56.6 (of which: to General Government) (1.2) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0.9) Current Surplus/Deficit -3.2 0.1 - 3.5 2.1 Capital Revesue 10.1 8.9 8.2 10.5 8.0 (of which: fram Ceneral Govers.eet) (10.1) (8.9) (8.2) (10.5) (8.0) Capital Espenditure 6.3 10.2 8.4 12.1 9.2 Overall Surplus/Deficit 0.6 -1.2 -0.2 1.9 0.9 Fin-acing -0.6 1.2 0.2 -1.9 -0.9 Net Enternal Barrowing (-) (-) (-) (-) (-) Net Doaestic Borrowing (-0.6) (-1.2) (0.2) (-1.9) (-0.9) (of which: from General Government) 1-l /2.2/ /-0.5/ /-/ /-/

IIA. National lousing Corparatian Correst Revenue 1.8 2.0 4.2 3.4 4.0 (of which: froe Central GOverc-eet) (0.4) (0.6) (2.6) (1.7) (2.4) Current Enpenditure 1.8 2.0 3.3 2.9 4.0 Current Accoust Surplss/Deficit - - 0.9 0.5 - Capital Revesue 4.1 4.0 4.3 3.7 5.3 (of which: froe Central CGvernment) (4.1) (4.0) (4.3) (3.7) (5.3) Capital Expenditure 3.3 4.4 4.1 4.7 5.3 Overall Surplus/Deficit 0.8 -0.4 0.2 -0.5 - Danestic Financing -0.8 0.4 -0.2 0.5 (of which: froe General G-versment) (-) (2.2) (-0.5) (-) (-)

IIB. Agricultural Development Corporatian f/ Current Revenue 1.4 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.4 (of which: fran General GCvernmeet) (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) Current Etpenditure 2.8 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Current Deficit -1.4 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 CapitaD Revesue 4.3 - 0.3 0.5 0.4 (of which: free General Gevernment) (4.3) - (0.2) (0.5) (0.4) Capital Expenditure 0.1 - 0.2 0.5 0.4 Overall Surplus/Deficdt 2.8 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 DEmestic Financing -2.8 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1

IIC. Port Depactment Current Revenue 3.6 5.0 6.0 7.7 8.0 Current Expenditure 3.1 3.1 3.8 3.8 4.3 (at which: interest tu Geseral Governent) (1.2) (1.1) (1.0) (1.0) (0,9) Current Surplus 0.5 1.9 2.2 3.9 3.7 Capital Expenditure - - - - 0.5 Overall Surplus 0.5 1.9 2.2 3.9 3.2 Domestic Financing -0. -1.9 -2.2 -3.9 -3.2

IID. Post Office Currest Revenue 3.5 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.7 Current Expenditure 3.5 3.6 4.4 4.9 5.2 Current Deficit - - -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 Capital Revenue 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 - Capital Expenditure 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 - Overa11 Deficit - - -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 Damestic Financing - - 0.8 0.7 0.5

IIE. Barbadas Marketing C-rparation Current Rerenee 9.8 11.3 8.0 9.1 11.0 (of which: free Central- nvernment) () () (0.7) (0.4) (0.6) Current Enpenditure 11.4 12.9 9.9 10.3 12.0 Current Deficit -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -1.2 -1.0 Capital Revenue froa Central Gavermenet 1.1 3.9 1.1 1.5 0.4 Capital Expenditure 1.1 3.9 1.1 i.3 0.4 overall Deficit -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -1.2 -1.0 DEmestic Financing 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.2 1.0

IIF. NtureaS C.a Carporation Current Revenue 1.2 1.7 1.7 2.0 2.3 Current Expenditure 1.3 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 Currest Surplas/Deficit -O.1 - 0.4 0.6 0.7 Capital Expenditure 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Overall Surplus/Deficit -1.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 DEmestic Financing 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2

I1G. Caribbean B-adc-uting Corporatian j/ Current Revenue 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.3 Current Expenditure 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0 Current Surplus 0.4 0.1 - 0.2 0.3 Capital Enpenditure 0.2 0.4 - 0.1 0.2 Overall Surplus/DefiOct 0.2 -0.3 - 0.1 0.1 Domestic Finacing -0.2 0.3 - -0.1 -0.1

IIH. Transport Beard h/ Current Revenue 4.8 7.6 10.5 16.5 22.0 (of which: from Central Covernment) (-) (1.0) (3.7) (4.6) (5.0) Current Expenditure 5.8 7.3 10.4 15.3 22.0 Current Surpius/Deficit -1.0 0.3 0.1 1.2 - Capital Revenue 0.5 0.9 2.2 4.5 1.9 (of which: from Central Government) (0.5) (0.9) (2.2) (4.5) (1.9) Capital Expenditure 0.5 0.9 2.2 4.5 1.9 Overall Surplue/Deficit -1.0 0.3 0.1 1.2 - Financing 2.0 -0.3 -O.1 -1.2

a/ Due to discrepancy in tra.sfera shown in Ceetral Govern-eet and NFPEs fre. different accounting yearn. bl includes capital spending financed by gifts of services and equipment set recorded in the budget. s/ ERcledes grants in the fare of servicen and equipment not recorded in the budget. A/ddjusted calender year accounts. e/ Includes: Sugar Industry Price Stabilizaticn Fund, Sugar Industry Labor Welfare Fund, Sugar Warkers' Pr-vident Fund, Sugar Industry Capital and Rehabilitatin FPund, Sugar Levy fDnd, and ether special funds. f/ Year e-ding June 30. / Year ending December 31. h/ Year ending Septenber 30.

Source: Ministry at Finance, Natianal Insurance Corparatian, IMF, accounts of public aurpuratians, eissiun estimaten. - 140 - Page I Table 5.7: BARBADOS: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAN, EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS, 1979-83

1979 12 1<1 19/2 1943 External External External External External Project Financing Total Financing Total Financing Total Financing Total Financing Total

I. PROJECTS WITH FINANCING US$ million

Agriculture 3.0 5.1 3.3 3.1 0.1 0.1 _ _ _ _ Agronomic Research Laboratory 0.6 1.0 - 0.1 ------Expansion of Agricultural Marketing Corporation 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.1 - - Agricultural Credit 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 Oistin's Fisheries Development 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.4 - - - _ - Technical Assistance: Integrated Rural Development of Scotland Dis- trict Study 0.3 0.3 ------Development of Fisheries Study 0.1 0.1 - -

Industry 2.1 3.0 0.8 0.8 - - - - - _ -* '-p.raticr.II 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 - - - - Industrial Estates 1.9 2.8 - -

Tourism 0.7 1.0 4.2 6.0 4.5 7.11 1.8 3.0- Holiday Village 0.7 1.0 4.2 6.0 4.5 7.0 1.8 3.0

Transportation 0.5 2.0 - - - - Adams Airport Development - 1.2 ------Technical Assistance: Spring Garden Road/SJPP Study 0.5 0.8

Education 1.8 2.5 3.5 5.4 5.1 7.8 2.9 4.6 0.2 0.3 SJ Prescod Polytechnic Institute 1.8 2.5 2.7 4.0 3.7 4.0 0.7 1.0 Rehabilitation of Primary and Secondary Education System - - 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 2.2 3.6 0.2 0.3

Housing 0.4 0.8 - - - - _ _ - _ Mortgage Finance 0.3 0.7 Technical Assistance: Speightstown Urban Development Study 0.1 0.1 ------

Health 3.4 5.5 6.8 8.5 - 6.2 - Bridgetown Sewerage Project 3.0 5.0 6.9 8.5 - 6.2 Technical Assistance: Health Services Study 0.4 0.5 - - - -

Total Projects with Financing 11.9 19.9 18.6 23.8 9.7 21.1 4.7 7.6 0.2 0.3

II. PROJECTS FOR WHICH FPNANCING IS REQUIRED

Agriculture 0.5 0.75 2.S-a i 7.7 12.5 9.5 16.2 11.0 17 0 Rural Development and Tenantries 0.20 0.25 1.0 1.5 1.4 0 1.8 1.2 Spring Hill Land Lease 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.5 - Integrated Rural Development, Scotland District - - - - 2.0 3.0 2.6 4.0 4.Q 6. Vegetable Self-Sufficiency - - - 1.5 2.1 4.0 4.0 7.5 2.9 5,! Development of Fisheries - - 0.6 1.0 1.8 3.0 1.8 3.0 1.8 3.P yish Terminal - Speightstown ------0.3 0.53 2.3 r.

IndustrY 1.0 1.0 1.8 3.0 2.2 3.5 6.9 10.5 10.7 17- Food Processing - - - - 0.3 1.5 1.8 2.5 1.9 Development of Clay and Limestone 1.0 1.0 1.8 3.0 1.2 2.0 - - - Industrial Estates ------1.8 3.0 4.2 Export Indus-ry Promotion - - - - 0.7 1.0 3.3 5.0 4.6 7-'

Tourism - - - - 0.9 1.5 1.8 3.0 3.9 6.5 Coastal Conservation - - - - 1.9 1.5 1.8 3.0 .9 6. 5

Transportation - - 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.5 5.3 8.5 5S1 Spring Garden/SJFP Road - - 0.9 1.5 2.4 3.5 1.1 1.5 East Coast Road ------4.2 7.1 5.1

Energy - - L.5 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.7 4.0 1 Development of Fossil Fuels - - 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.0 2.7 4.3 1.5 2.5

Housing - - . . .8 .9. .

Low Cost Housing Program - - - - 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.5 2.5

Health 1.8 1.0 2. 3 3.0 1._7 1.0 - - - - Community Health Clinics 0.8 1.0 2.3 3.0 0.7 1.0 - -

Water Supply and Sewerage - - 0.3 0.3 1.2 2.3 1.5 2.5 0.9 1.5 Establishment of Water Management Authority - - 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.3 - Bridgetown Sewage Reuse Pilot Scheme - - - - 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 - - Water Development III - - - - 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.0 0.9 1.5

Total Projects far Which Financing is Required 2.3 2.75 9.9 _ L 2 3j,j - 141 -

Page 2

Table 5.7: BARBADOS: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENTPROGRAM, EXTERNALLY FINANCED PROJECTS, 1979-83

1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

III. TECHNICALASSISTANCE (IS'00D)

Agriculture Cooperative Organization and Development 45.7 63.1 56.5 14.7 Production and Processing of Sweet Potations and Cassava - - 366.0 366.0 Organic Bio Fertilizer - - - 10.0 Utilization of Molasses - - - - 10.0 Fruit Orchard Management - - - - 180.0 Irrigation Development - - - 194.3 194.4 Dairy Operations Improvement - 25.0 25.0 - [Latching Eggs - - - - 20.0 Pig Breeding Unit - - - - 10.0 Subtotal 45.7 88.1 447.5 585.0 414.4

Industry Handicrafts Development 18.0 40.0 40.0 -

Tourism Establishment of National Parks - 72.0 - -

Education Reequipment of School Meals Program - - 712.0 712.0 Upgrading of Technical Wings in Secondary Schools - - - - 2,344.0 Subtotal - - 712.0 712.0 2,344.0

Health Morbidity Survey - - - 45.0 National Health and Drug Services - Financial Analyst - 5C.O 50.0 -

Subtotal - 50.0 50.0 45.0

Water and Sewerage Water Waste Control Scheme 18.0 18.0 18.0 -

Administration National Insurance Scheme 165.0 165.0 - Land Registry 50.0 50.0 - Criminal Reform - - - 10.0 Systems Analyst - Central Bank - - 60.0 60.0 CBC - Executive Engineer - 50.0 100.0 - Physical Planning - 50.0 - Telecommunications Support - - 60.0 60.0 60.0 Electrical Engineering Support - 40.0 40.0 - Subtotal 215.0 355.0 260.0 130.0 60.0

Total lechnical Assistance 296.7 623.1 1,327.0 1,472.0 2,818.4

External External External External External Financing Total Financing Total Financing Total Financing Total Financing Total (US$ million)

IV. SUMMARY

Projects with Financing 11.9 19.90 18.6 23.8 9.7 21.1 4.7 7.6 0.2 0.3 Projects for which Financing is Required 2.3 2.75 9.9 15.5 16.7 26.8 28.6 46.2 34.6 55.5 Technical Assistance Required 0.3 0.30 0.6 0.6 1.5 3.- 1.5 1.4 2.8

TOTAL 14.5 22.95 29.1 39.9 2 49.4 L_ 55.3 j6.0 58.6 - 142 -

Table 5.8: PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT AND FINANCING 1979/80-1983/84 (BDS$ million)

1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 'Total

Public Scctor Capital Expenditures 90.0 115.2 136.1 160.0 191.0 692.3 Central. Government 77.0 992 114.6 132.0 15..0 573.8 Rest of General Government 3.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 15.0 33.0 Nonfinancial Public Enterprises 10.0 13.0 16.5 21.0 25.0 85.5

Financing 90.0 115.2 136.1 160.0 191.0 692.3

Public Sector Savings 64.8 75.0 90.1 106.2 125.0 461.1 Central Govcrnment 35.8 42.4 52.1 61.7 72.2 264.2 Rest of General Government 27.0 30.0 35.0 41.0 49.0 182.0 Nonfinancial Public Enterprises 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.8 14.9

Net External Borrowing 29.2 47.6 45.8 52.7 59.2 234.5 Gross Disbursements . 63.7 64 68.0 72.2 311.6 (Project related) (33.7) (56.0) (58.7) (68.0) (72.28 (288.6) (Other) (10.0) (8.0) (5.0) ( - ) (23.0) Amortization (-14.5) (-16.4) -17.9 -15.3 -13.0 (-77.1)

Net Dor-.estic Borrowing -4.0 -7.4 0.2 1.1 6.8 -3.3 Banking System (-8.2) (-8.5) (-6.5) (-6.7) (-1.2) (-31.1) Other (4.2), (1.1) (6.7) ( 7.8) ( 8.0) (27.8) Memnorandkn Iterms As % of CDP Public Sector Investment 7.5 8.3 8.5 8.7 9.3 8.6 Public Sector Savings 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.7 Net External Borrowing 2.4 3.4 2.8 2-9 .93 29 Net Doimestic Borrowing -n.3 _n.5 As 7. of Capital Expenditures Public Sector Savings 72.0 65.1 66.2 66.4 65.4 66.6 Net External Borrowing 32.4 41.3 33.7 32.9 31.0 33.9 Net Domrcstic Borrowing 4.4 -6.4 0.1 0.7 3.6 -0.5 - 143 -

Table 6.1: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1973-78 (BDS$ million)

December 31 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

I. MONETARY AUTHORITIES

Net International Reserves 66.9 62.9 81.0 56.7 58.7 103.2 Assets 66.9 62.9 81.0 56.7 74.6 120.2 Liabilities ------15.9 -17.0 Use of Fund credit (IMF record) ------15.9 -17.0 Compensatory financing (--) (--) (--) (--) (-15.9) (-17.0) Net Domestic Assets -14.3 0.5 3.4 25.3 57.8 31.1 Net claims on public sector -16.0 -5.4 -7.6 3.4 49.5 17.2 Net Central Government 5.1 14.8 12.0 23.9 68.5 40.4 Treasury bills (4.3) (9.3) (16.3) (24.6) (42.1) (31.4) Loans to Government (3.4) (13.7) (8.9) (10.3) (20.9) (5.7) Government debentures (3.3) (2.7) (2.8) (3.1) (16.6) (16.0) Currency held by Treasury (-0.5) (-0.1) (-0.1) (-0.1) (-0.1) (-0.1) Government deposits (-0.3) (-2.0) (-3.3) (-3.8) (-3.1) (-4.6) Other government special deposits (--) (-3.9) (-4.3) (-2.7) (-0.3) (-0.4) Accountant general deposits (--) (--) (--) (--) (--) (--) Gold subscription account (--) (--) (--) (--) (--) (--) Advances by Government (-1.1) (--) (--) (--) (--) (--) Counterpart IMF government deposits (-4.0) (-4.9) (-8.3) (-7-5) (-7.6) (-7.6) Net other general government -21.1 -17.2 -17.3 -18.5 -15.4 -20.4 Sugar industry price stabiliza- tion, special deposits (--) (-5.0) (-5.4) (-2.2) (--) (--) Foreign assets, Government Trust Fund (-13.8) (-3.1) (-2.5) (-5.8) (-1.5) (-2.0) Sinking funds for domestic debt (-7.3) (-9.1) (-9.4) (-10.5) (-13.9) (-18.4) Net decentralized agencies -- -3.0 -1.7 -1.2 -3.0 -1.6 Net social security funds -- -- -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 National Insurance Fund deposits (--) (--) (-0.6) (-0.8) (-0.6) (-1.2) Official capital and surplus -2.2 -5.4 -8.7 -9.2 -10.2 -11.3 Credit to commercial banks 2.6 2.6 0.3 3.0 4.5 -- Credit to rest of banking system -- 6.8 12.9 20.1 14.1 24.0 Sugar Industry Agricultural Bank -- 6.8 12.9 20.1 13.2 20.0 Barbados Development Bank ------0.9 4.0 Nonmonetary international organiza- tions -- -- -0.1 -1.2 -2.6 -0.9 Net unclassified assets 1.3 1.9 6.6 9.2 2.5 2.1 Assets 1.8 2.9 10.8 11.6 11.8 9.9 Liabilities -0.5 -1.0 -4.2 -2.4 -9.3 -7.8

Counterpart Unrequited Foreign Exchange 8.2 7.3 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.0 Allocation of SDRs (IMF record) 6.9 6.9 6.5 6.5 6.8 7.3 Valuation adjustment Fund accounts 1.3 0.4 -0.5 0.2 -0.4 -1.3

Medium- and Long-term Foreign Liabilities ------20.0 20.0

Liabilities to Commercial Banks 17.6 22.2 37.6 28.6 35.0 42.5 Currency 8.7 10.1 12.7 12.6 14.2 15.7 Demand deposits 8.9 4.6 16.7 9.4 20.8 26.8 National Bank special deposits -- 7.5 8.2 6.6 -- --

Liabilities to Rest of the Banking System 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.7 4.6 Currency 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.7 4.6

Liabilities to Private Sector 26.7 33.5 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.2 Currency in circulation 26.7 33.5 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.2

Memorandum Item Currency issue 28.4 42.7 52.5 59.4 69.4 81.6 - 144 - Page 2 Table 6.1: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1973-78 (BDS$ million)

December 31 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

II. COMMERCIAL BANKS

Net Foreign Assets -33.5 -22.7 -9.8 -20.1 -9.4 7.5 Assets 44.5 27.7 25.0 20.2 26.8 26.8 Liabilities -78.0 -50.4 -34.8 -40.3 -36.2 -19.3

Net Overseas Operations -21.1 -22.9 -23.3 -21.9 -19.7 -23.3 Assets 4.0 4.6 7.6 8.8 8.6 3.8 Liabilities -25.1 -27.5 -30.9 -30.7 -28.3 -27.1 Demand deposits of nonresidents (-3.0) (-5.0) (-6.6) (-6.0) (-5.6) (-6.5) Time deposits of nonresidents (-7.5) (-8.6) (-10.1) (-9.4) (-8.7) (-7.8) Savings deposits of nonresidents (-14.6) (-13.9) (-14.2) (-15.3) (-14.0) (-12.8)

Monetary Reserves and Currency Holdings 21.1 28.1 37.9 28.1 36.4 44.2 Barbados notes in hand 8.7 9.6 12.1 12.0 13.7 15.1 Barbados coins in hand -- 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 Deposits with Central Bank 10.4 12.1 22.7 11.8 21.1 28.0 Checks due from Central Bank 2.0 5.9 2.5 3.7 1.1 0.5

Net Domestic Assets 255.9 297.9 307.0 358.5 390.3 423.3 Net claims on public sector -8.2 32.1 27.2 47.2 56.4 56.7 Net Central Government 18.1 54.1 75.0 102.1 113.4 127.1 Treasury bills (1.5) (23.8) (32.9) (54.8) (46.5) (67.9) Loans and overdrafts (2.1) (10.8) (9.3) (10.2) (22.2) (18.2) Government debentures (18.2) (24.7) (36.1) (41.7) (49.0) (48.6) Demand deposits (-3.7) (-5.2) (-3.3) (-4.6) (-4.3) (-7.6) Net other general government -1.6 -0.1 -14.5 -11.1 -11.9 -11.7 Time deposits (-1.5) (--) (-14.4) (-11.0) (-11.9) (-11.6) Savings deposits (-0.1) (-0.1) (-0.1) (-0.1) (--) (-0.1) Net decentralizedagencies -8.0 0.1 -0.8 -3.1 -6.5 -7.7 Loans etc. to statutory bodies (5.1) (5.2) (5.0) (3.4) (1.9) (2.2) Investments in statutory bodies (0.4) (0.8) (1.4) (3.6) (3.2) (5.7) Demand deposits of statutory bodies (-2.8) (-2.5) (-1.7) (-3.8) (-2.4) (-4.4) Time deposits of statutory bodies (-10.7) (-3.4) (-5.4) (-6.3) (-9.1) (-11.2) Savings deposits of statutory bodies (-(-) (-0.1) (_) (-0.1) (- Net social security funds -16.7 -22.0 -32.5 -40.7 -38.6 -51.0 National Insurance Fund time deposits (-16.7) (-22.0) (-32.5) (-40.7) (-38.6) (-51.0) Official capital and surplus -7.3 -9.5 -10.6 -11.2 -15.7 -8.0 Credit to rest of banking system 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.5 4.9 8.3 Loans etc to public financial institutions 0.5 ------4.1 6.6 Investments in public financial institutions ------Balance with banks and other institutions 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7 Credit to rest of financial system 2.6 4.9 3.3 4.6 2.9 4.9 Loans etc. to private financial institutions 2.7 3.0 1.5 3.2 1.8 2.1 Due from other financial institutions ------2.5 Investments in private financial institutions -- 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 Less: Balance due banks -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 Credit to private sector 249.9 250.1 271.8 302.9 326.8 354.1 Net unclassified assets 8.4 11.3 3.1 -0.5 -4.3 -8.2 Assets 17.7 22.8 23.8 25.1 25.4 28.0 Liabilities -10.3 -11.5 -20.7 -25.6 -29.7 -36.1 Net interbank float 9.9 8.9 12.1 15.0 19.3 15.5

Medium- and Long-term Foreign Liabilities 2.1 10.8 9.3 12.8 25.3 33.0

Liabilities to Monetary Authorities 2.6 2.6 0.3 3.0 4.5 -- - 145 -

Page 3

Table 6.1: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1973-78

(BDS$ million)

December 31 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Liabilities to Rest of Banking System 0.3 5.8 11.1 11.2 2.8 10.1 Demand deposits 2.5 2.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.3 Demand deposits of public financial institutions (2.5) (2.6) (1.1) (1.2) (0.9) (1.3) Time and savings deposits -2.2 3.2 10.0 10.0 1.9 8.8 Time deposits of public financial institutions (9.7) (31.9) (35.4) (46.0) (38.2) (52.6) Savings deposits of public financial institutions (-)(- ~ )(~ ~) (1.4) Less: National Insurance Fund time deposits (-16.7) (-22.0) (-32.5) (-40.7) (-38.6) (-51.0) Trust companies' balances (4.8) (3.3) (7.1) (4.7) (2.3) (5.8)

Liabilities to Rest of Financial System 8.8 11.2 16.0 18.6 22.2 24.3 Demand deposits of private financial institutions 5.5 5.0 6.1 8.5 7.3 13.1 Time deposits of private financial institutions 7.4 8.9 16.5 14.2 16.6 16.3 Savings deposits of private financial institutions 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 Less: Trust companies' balances -4.8 -3.3 -7.1 -4.7 -2.3 -5.8

Liabilities to Private Sector 208.6 250.0 275.1 299.0 342.8 384.3 Demand deposits 39.1 43.8 55.6 55.9 68.8 78.8 Demand deposits (36.2) (40.3) (52.5) (51.9) (63.4) (72.5) Drafts and transfers advised (0.6) (2.1) (0.5) (0.7) (0.6) (1.6) Managers' checks outstanding (2.3) (1.4) (2.6) (3.3) (4.8) (4.7) Time, savings, and foreign currency deposits 167.9 202.6 215.7 240.7 268.7 300.3 Time deposits (60.7) (86.8) (80.4) (76.2) (77.4) (82.6) Savings deposits (106.9) (115.6) (134.6) (163.2) (189.7) (216.4) Foreign currency demand deposits (0.3) (0.2) (0.7) (1.3) (1.6) (1.3) Private capital and surplus 1.6 3.6 3.8 2.4 5.3 5.2

III. TRUST COMPANIES

Net Foreign Assets ------

Cash Reserves 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.7 4.6

Net Domestic Assets 9.9 11.5 20.5 25.1 26.9 39.6 Net claims on the public sector 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.6 Net Central Government Government securities (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.9) (0.4) (0.6) Claims on commercial banks 4.8 3.3 7.1 4.7 2.3 5.8 Claims on private sector 4.9 8.2 13.2 20.3 25.9 34.9 Net unclassified assets -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 -1.7 -1.7

Medium- and Long-term Foreign Liabilities 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.3

Liabilities to Commercial Banks 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.7

Liabilities to Private Sector 9.2 11.1 20.5 24.3 26.7 41.2 Time deposits 8.5 10.4 19.8 23.6 26.0 40.5 Private capital and surplus 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 - 146 -

Page 4

Table 6.1: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANKING SYSTEM, 1973-78

(BDS$ million)

December 31 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

IV. CONSOLIDATED BANKING SYSTEM

Net Foreign Assets 12.3 17.3 47.9 14.7 29.6 87.4

Net Domestic Assets 247.5 309.8 323.7 400.2 468.8 488.2 Net claims on public sector -23.7 27.2 20.1 51.5 106.3 74.5 Net Central Government (23.7) (69.4) (87.5) (126.9) (182.3) (168.1) Net other general government (-22.7) (-17.3) (-34.7) (-29.6) (-27.3) (-32.1) Net decentralized agencies (-8.0) (-2.9) (0.4) (-4.3) (-9.5) (-9.3) Net social security funds (-16.7) (-22.0) (-33.1) (-41.5) (-39.2) (-52.2) Official capital and surplus -9.5 -14.9 -19.3 -20.4 -25.9 -19.3 Credit to unconsolidated banking system 0.5 6.8 12.9 20.1 18.2 30.6 Credit to rest of financial system 2.6 4.9 3.3 4.6 2.9 4.9 Credit to private sector 254.8 258.3 285.0 323.2 352.7 389.9 Nonmonetary international

organizations -- - -0.1 -1.2 -2.6 -0.9 Net unclassified assets 9.4 12.7 -9.4 7.9 -3.5 -7.8 Net interbank float 13.4 14.8 12.4 14.5 20.7 17.2

Counterpart Unrequited Foreign Exchange 8.2 7.3 6.0 6.7 6.4 6.0

Medium- and Long-term Foreign Liabilities 2.8 11.5 10.0 13.5 46.4 54.3

Liabilities to Unconsolidated Banking System 4.5 2.5 4.0 6.5 0.5 4.3

Liabilities to Rest of Financial System System 8.8 11.2 16.0 18.6 22.2 24.3

Liabilities to Private Sector 244.5 294.6 335.6 369.6 422.9 486.7 Currency outside banks 26.7 33.5 40.0 46.3 53.4 61.2 Demand deposits 39.1 43.8 55.6 55.9 68.8 78.8 Quasi-liquid liabilities 176.4 213.0 235.5 264.3 294.7 340.8 Private and capital surplus 2.3 4.3 4.5 3.1 6.0 5.9

Source: Central Bank of Barbados, IMF. - 147 -

Table 6.2: DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING TO PRIVATE SECTOR, 1970-78

(%)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Personal 19.2 19.2 24.0 22.2 24.6 26.5 27.9 26.8 28.5

Distribution 17.3 20.1 22.8 22.3 21.4 18.3 16.4 18.4 18.3

Manufacturing 7.4 8.4 7.7 8.6 10.4 10.1 7.9 9.0 10.3

Construction 9.6 10.4 11.8 13.7 13.7 11.9 11.2 11.0 9.6

Tourism 13.5 12.6 10.6 11.4 10.6 12.5 13.2 12.8 12.5

Agriculture 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.0 4.6 4.1 4.6 4.5 4.2

Fisheries 0.1 0.1 0.2 2.0 3.4 3.8 3.7 1.3 1.2

Mining and Quarrying 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.1

Public Utilities 9.8 6.6 4.7 5.8 3.1 4.5 6.2 5.9 4.9

Transportation 2.3 2.4 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8

Financial Institutions 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.3

Entertainment and Catering 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.9

Professional and Other Services ) ) ) 2.6 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.9 12.5) 12.1) 7.1) Miscellaneous ) ) ) 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.6 2.6

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Central Bank of Barbados. - 148 -

Table 6.3: COMMERCIAL BANKS SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1968-1978

(PercentaRe Per Annum)

Period Prime Ended Savings 3 Months 6 Months 12 Months Lending

Dec. 1968 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5 8.0 Dec. 1969 4.5 6.0 6.5 6.5 8.5 Dec. 1970 4.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 8.5 Dec. 1971 4.5 6.25 6.5 6.5 8.5 Dec. 1972 3.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 8.0 Dec. 1973 3.5 - 6.0 7.0 - 10.0 7.0 - 10.0 7.0 - 10.0 10.0 - 11.0 Dec. 1974 4.5 - 8.0 7.5 - 10.0 7.5 - 10.0 7.5 - 10.0 10.0 - 12.0

1975 Mar. 4.5 - 7.0 5.0 - 8.0 5.0 - 8.0 6.0 - 9.0 10.5 - 12.0 Jun. 3.0 - 7.0 5.0 - 8.0 5.0 - 8.0 5.0 - 8.0 10.0 -,11.0 Sept. 3.0 - 7.0 5.0 - 6.5 6.0 - 7.0 5.0 - 7.0 9.5 - 11.0 Dec. 3.0 - 7.0 3.5 - 6.5 4.5 - 6.5 5.0 - 7.0 9.0 - 10.5

1976 Jan. 3.0 - 7.0 3.5 - 6.5 4.5 - 6.5 5.0 - 6.0 9.0 - 9.5 Feb. 3.0 - 7.0 3.5 - 6.5 4.5 - 6.5 5.0 - 6.0 9.0 - 9.5 Mar. 3.0 - 7.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.5 - 6.5 5.0 - 6.0 9.0 - 9.5 Apr. 3.0 - 7.0 4.0 - 5.5 4.0 - 6.0 4.75- 6.0 8.5 - 9.5 May 3.0 - 7.0 4.0 - 5.5 4.0 - 6.0 5.0 - 6.25 8.5 - 9.0 Jun. 3.0 - 6.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 8.0 - 8.5 Jul. 3.0 - 6.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 8.0 - 8.5 Aug. 2.5 - 6.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 8.0 - 8.5 Sept. 2.5 - 6.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 8.0 - 8.5 Oct. 2.5 - 6.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 8.0 - 8.5 Nov. 2.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.0 7.5 - 8.5 Dec. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.25- 5.0 7.5 - 8.5

1977 Jan. 2.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.25- 5.0 7.5 - 8.0 Feb. 2.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 4.25- 5.0 7.5 - 8.0 Mar. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.5 7.5 - 8.5 Apr. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 - 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.5 7.5 - 8.5 May 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.5 7.5 - 8.5 Jun. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.5 7.5 - 8.0 Jul. 2.5- 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.5 7.5 - 8.0 Aug. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.5 7.5 - 8.0 Sept. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.0 7.5 - 8.0 Oct. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.0 7.5 - 8.0 Nov. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.0 7.5 - 8.0 Dec. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 4.5 4.0 - 5.0 3.75- 5.0 7.5 - 8.0

1978 Jan. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.5 3,50- 6,0 7.5 - 8.0 Feb. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 5.5 3.50- 6.0 7.5 - 8.0 Mar. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 7.5 - 8.5 Apr. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 7.5 - 8.5 May 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 8.5 Jun. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 8.5 Jul. 2.5 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4,0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 85 Aug. 3.0 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6,0 8.0 - 8.5 Sept. 3.0- 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 8.5 Oct. 3.0 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 8.5 Nov. 3.0 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 8.5 Dec. 3.0 - 5.0 3.5 - 5.0 4.0 - 6.0 3.50- 6.0 8.0 - 8.5

Sources: East Caribbean Currency Authority; Central Bank of Barbados - 149 -

Table 7.1: RETAIL PRICE INDEX, 1968-78, 1977 AND 1978 (October 1965 = 100)

Household Education, Food and Operations and Medical and Trans- Recreation and All Period Beverages Housing Furnishing Clothing Personal Care portation Miscellaneous Items Weights 58.7% 9.1% 8.9% 6.9% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 100%

1968 114.1 121.2 110.1 103.2 112.8 105.3 119.9 113.4 1969 119.8 145.8 112.2 111.8 115.8 105.7 130.1 119.4 1970 127.6 147.6 119.0 118.6 131.7 122.1 142.9 128.7 1971 147.6 153.8 129.6 130.7 155.6 125.0 150.7 144.7 1972 161.1 156.6 134.2 138.5 158.3 138.3 151.6 154.8 1973 189.7 186.7 153.6 157.6 171.1 158.7 182.0 180.9 1974 273.8 246.7 239.9 196.0 202.0 187.4 219.7 180.9 1975 335.0 269.0 274.0 252.5 237.4 222.3 259.9 302.3 1976 349.2 285.1 279.5 276.0 246.9 241.9 287.6 317.4 1977 379.0 321.3 287.0 292.1 285.1 237.2 327.1 343.9 1978 417.2 346.3 309.0 301.2 322.1 272.1 353.6 376.7

1977 January 363.5 309.1 278.4 281.9 243.2 218.6 294.1 327.1 February 364.1 309.1 279.8 292.3 243.4 218.7 307.4 329.0 March 355.2 306.5 283.2 288.9 246.8 218.7 307.4 323.8 April 365.6 308.3 290.2 288.5 248.1 223.6 314.9 331.5 May 367.4 315.1 291.4 289.0 300.5 225.8 334.1 337.3 June 388.5 320.9 289.0 297.7 303.5 229.3 334.0 350.9 July 401.5 323.5 288.3 290.2 303.8 229.3 334.0 358.2 August 384.3 331.4 289.0 293.4 304.6 256.4 335.3 350.8 September 399.7 331.4 285.4 293.6 305.4 256.7 335.6 359.7 October 378.3 332.4 285.9 297.6 307.1 256.5 338.2 347.6 November 385.2 335.6 289.8 299.2 307.5 256.5 344.9 358.4 December

1978 January 391.1 336.3 290.9 300.4 307.8 257.4 347.9 356.8 February 397.8 337.1 293.4 300.6 311.4 256.8 349.0 361.2 March 399.3 343.3 294.0 310.4 312.3 258.1 347.6 363.5 April 423.7 340.4 300.8 299.1 314.2 262.9 347.6 377.7 May 404.9 340.2 303.6 298.5 319.2 277.1 349.2 368.0 June 411.9 344.4 306.7 305.7 319.4 277.1 349.2 373.2 July 420.6 345.4 309.7 300.5 319.5 277.7 349.2 378.4 August 423.9 344.8 316.4 304.9 321.6 278.1 357.4 381.7 September 426.1 346.2 317.6 297.3 324.4 278.0 357.4 382.9 October 426.9 347.8 318.5 299.1 326.7 278.0 357.8 383.9 November 434.9 364.5 325.2 300.8 344.7 280.0 364.8 392.2 December 445.1 365.0 331.0 297.1 343.6 283.9 366.1 348.8

Source: Barbados Statistical Service. - 150 -

Table 8.1: PRODUCTIONOF SELECTEDAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, 1970-77

CommoditiesUnis Commodities (000) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Export Agriculture Sugar Cane (a) Tons 1,433 1,214 1,043 1,072 941 832 904 1,029 Onions (b) Lbs. 1,198 2,000 2,500 1,800 1,814 1,903 1,500 1,486 Peanuts (c) Lbs. 104 116 371 371 344 344 - - Cotton (d) Lbs. 23 10 51 113 153 356 193 58

Domestic Food Crops (c) Yams Lbs. 34,000 31,640 26,555 17,125 11,250 14,573 12,570 11,013 Sweet Potatoes Lbs. 12,553 14,908 16,854 9,211 7,189 6,430 6,336 2,-68 Beets Lbs. 300 300 1,200 1,800 1,360 1,829 544 842 Pumpkins Lbs. 400 664 1,336 1,336 664 556 550 148 Carrots Lbs. 1,064 1,536 2,176 3,072 2,656 2,095 2,480 1,096 String Beans Lbs. 147 147 207 297 570 357 3,150 395 Tomatoes Lbs. 688 804 862 1,086 964 979 990 26e Cucumbers Lbs. 780 1,295 1,944 2,328 2,328 3,324 1,640 1,201 Cabbage Lbs. 668 900 1,343 1,748 1,725 1,582 1,360 574

Livestock Products Pigs (c) Lbs. 3,753 3,795 3,805 3,219 2,075 1,442 2,816 1,000 CoWs and CaLves (c) Lbs. 1,246 1,258 985 1,000 822 396 396 3S5 Goats and Sheep (c) Lbs. 306 316 252 255 250 78 154 75 Poultry (c) Lbs. 1,250 1,625 3,300 5,226 5,529 6,387 6,918 8,198 Eggs tc) Lbs. 1,850 1,866 1,885 1,900 2,000 3,663 3,707 3,500 Mi1k (e) LLS. 4,542 4,172 4,543 4,792 5,216 5,066 5,601 5,823

Sources: (a) Ministry of Agriculture; Sugar Producers' Association. (b) Ministry of Agriculture; Barbados Agricultural Society. (c) Ministry of Agriculture; Central Bank Estimates .(Dead weight for pigs, cows, calves, goats, sheep & poultry). (d) Agricultural Development Corporation. (e) Annual Reports, Barbados Dairy Industries Ltd. - 151 -

Table 8.2 : SUGAR STATISTICS, 1970-78

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Acreage of Cane Reaped ('000) 49.8 48.7 43.9 46.3 41.4 39.8 39.3 39.2 39.0 Tons of Cane Milled ('000) 1433.1 1214.2 1042.6 1071.7 940.8 831.7 904.5 1028.9 880.4 Cane Yield (Tons Cane/Acre Reaped) 28.8 24.9 23.8 23.1 22.7 20.9 23.0 26.3 22.6 Rainfall (inches) 74.4 49.5 50.7 48.2 45.0 64.2 54.6 45.4 n.a. Sugar Production ('000) 153.9 134.6 110.5 116.4 108.6 96.9 102.2 117.9 99.3 Sugar Yield (Tons Sugar/'000 tons Cane) 107.4 110.9 106.0 108.6 115.5 116.6 113.0 114.5 112.7 Sugar Yield (Tons Sugar/Acre Reaped) 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.6 3.0 2.6 Number of Factories in Operation 17 13 12 12 10 8 8 8 8

Exports ('000 tons) 130.3 116.1 92.8 109.5 88.7 71.8 82.7 99.5 78.3 - to UK 130.3 116.1 92.8 109.5 50.6 48.3 50.6 62.5 59.8 - to US - - - - 28.0 21.8 30.4 37.0 16.5 - to Others - - - - 10.1 1.7 1.7 - -

Sources: Barbados Sugar Producers Association, Annual Overseas Trade Yearbooks. - 152 -

Table 8.3: PRODUCTION OF SELECTED MANUFACTURED GOODS

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Food products and beverages (in thousand units) Lard (pounds) 2,686 2,468 2,621 2,733 3,264 Margarine (pounds) 3,684 3,858 3,810 4,333 5,205 Biscuits (pounds) 7,966 8,311 8,741 8,475 8,213 Macaroni (pounds) 2,072 1,963 2,323 2,267 2,619 Animal feeds (pounds) 46,168 62,697 76,295 84,524 78,004 Milk products (pounds)l/ 9,949 19,774 22,125 21,337 21,461 Rum (gallons) 1,739 1,790 1,916 2,344 2,350 Beer (gallons) 1,366 1,300 1,324 1,608 1,990 Malt beverages (gallons) 856 614 596 693 953 Carbonated beverages (gallons) 3,670 3,656 3,752 4,009 4,347 Cigarettes (pounds) 349 456 416 418 505

Chemicals, metal, and electrical products (in thousand units) Oxygen (cubic feet) 2,635 2,919 2,938 3,107 3,299 Acetylene (cubic feet) 576 592 646 745 766 Carbon dioxide (pounds) 648 701 657 676 850 Paints (gallons) 176 215 265 272 303 Nails (pounds) 528 389 143 201 328 Barbed wire (pounds) 279 193 158 131 140 Storage batteries (number) ...... 12,561 11,343 13,856

Petroleum products (in thousand gallons) 42,452 44,359 45,041 48,998 49,856 Gasoline 12,494 12,800 13,070 13,763 13,978 Diesel 15,059 17,956 14,998 8,946 10,600 Gas oil 986 1,395 894 704 714 Fuel oil 10,298 8,063 11,728 21,739 20,852 Kerosene 2,604 2,855 2,966 2,594 2,514 Asphalt 1,011 1,290 1,385 1,252 1,198

Electricity (million kwh) 196 207 214 246 269

Natural gas (million cubic feet) 68 75 149 166 339

Crude oil (thousand barrels) 59 123 145 124 274

Source: Barbados Statistical Service.

1/ Fresh milk equivalent. - 153 -

Table 8.4 : TELEPHONE SERVICES, 1970-78

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Telephones (numbers) 29,136 32,810 36,358 38,863 39,761 41,535 44,049 47,419 50,384

Investment (BDS$'000) 4,200 4,200 6,500 9,237 6,068 5,455 5,260 3,114 5,738

Source: Barbados Telephone Company; Barbados Statistical Service. - 154 -

Table 8.5 : WATER SERVICES, 1970-78

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

Water Consumed (milliongallons) 6,986 7,972 8,479 8,395 8,320 8,299 8,097 7,921 8,572 Metered Services 1,723 1,766 1,943 1,931 2,102 2,428 2,540 2,249 2,869 Domestic and Standpost Wastage 5,263 6,206 6,536 6,464 6,218 5,870 5,557 5,672 5,703

Water Sales (BDS '000) 1,163 1,261 1,285 1,308 1,349 1,441 3,288 3,682 4,536 Fixed Rates 500 564 575 564 593 588 2,193 2,361 2,533 Metered Supply 643 673 685 717 722 806 1,005 1,200 1,821 Meter Rent 20 24 25 27 34 46 90 120 182

Investment (BDS$ '000) 931 2,037 1,976 1,970 1,937 2,422 3,543 3,055 3,298

Source: Water Works Department; Barbados StatisticalService. - 155 -

Table 8.6 : CONSTRUCTIONDATA, 1970-77 (BDS$ million)

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Imports of Building Materials

Lumber 5.4 6.0 5.4 7.7 8.8 6.6 10.2 11.5

Steel a! 5.4 4.4 5.2 5.3 8.9 5.6 8.1 9.6

Aluminum a/ 1.0 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.4 1.3 1.3 0.7

Other 16.0 11.8 13.2 14.4 18.2 24.5 20.0 22.5

TOTAL 24.3 23.4 25.7 27.7 36.3 38.0 39.6 44.3

a/ Steel and aluminum only include the structuralparts of these metals.

Lumber = SITC 243 Steel = SITC 673, 678 and 691.1 Aluminum = SITC 691.2 Other = 631-32, 661-64, 691 (excluding691.1 and 691.2), 694 698 and 812.

Source: Overseas Trade Yearbooks