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NEW WAVES, NEW DESTINATIONS Knightfrank.Com.Cn Knightfrank.Com.Hk Chinese Outbound Real Estate Investment: New Waves, New Destinations RESEARCH CHINESE OUTBOUND REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT: NEW WAVES, NEW DESTINATIONS KnightFrank.com.cn KnightFrank.com.hk Chinese Outbound Real Estate Investment: New Waves, New Destinations INTRODUCTION HAVE THE CHANGES IN THE KEY In 2015, we have seen drastic CHINESE MARKET LED TO A FINDINGS RMB devaluation and stock u Despite domestic market uncertainties, RETREAT IN OUTBOUND CAPITAL? Chinese real estate investment overseas has market turmoil in China, as well Chinese property market Inventory, competition and uncertainty continued to grow strongly in 2015, riding on as considerable debate on the the strong appetite for overseas real estate showing signs of recovery Nationwide housing inventory levels, however, remain high and are increasing from both major and smaller investors. This health of China’s economy. Throughout 2014, the price decline in as over-construction in the past continues to add to the existing stock. The trend is also supported by the growing need the domestic housing market was one of 406.8 million square metres in 2014 rose to 452.5 million square metres in 2015 for diversification from some of the more hotly Inevitably, many in the field are according to official statistics. This has put pressure on the profit margins of many the key drivers of the surge in Chinese contested property markets in China. While more developers, in particular, many small- to mid-cap developers. developers among the country’s top 20 have keen to understand whether outbound real estate investment. In invested overseas in 2015 (increasing from 10 all this will have a fundamental 2015, however, there have been signs of These smaller developers find it difficult to compete with the bigger players, such to 14), there has been only a limited increase in a steady housing market recovery. The as Vanke and Wanda, in land auctions, especially in the first-tier cities, and in the number of top 20 insurers investing abroad impact on China’s outbound latest statistics indicate that among 70 securing additional funding for development. They also find it hard to clear their (four in 2014 and six in 2015), even though they investment. cities surveyed, 39 recorded a house accumulated inventory, the majority of which is in lower-tier cities, where local managed to clinch several mega-deals in 2015. price increase. This is in sharp contrast with the picture at the end of 2014, u Global gateway cities continue to attract the bulk Knight Frank’s Chinese Outward Real Estate Investment: After when prices in cities across the country of Chinese overseas real estate investment. The the Initial Waves What’s Next report, published in December FIGURE 1 were declining (see Figure 1). Prices in More Chinese cities saw home prices increase insurance giants, in particular, continue to splash 2014, identified a succession of Chinese investment waves hitting the first-tier cities showed the strongest out on trophy properties. In 2015 investment in global real estate markets. Apart from the heavyweight financial No. of cities the UK is on par with that of 2014, but strong institutions, developers and insurers who formed the first three growth. For example, Beijing’s house growth in Australia continues unabated. There waves of capital outflow, we identified a newFourth “ Wave” - a prices have grown 10.5% year on year in has also been significantly increased investment mixed group of investors consisting of lesser known small- to 2015, and Shenzhen’s have grown 47%. in US commercial real estate, making it the mid-cap companies and developers, private equity funds and Transaction volume also rebounded. fastest growing mature market. Manhattan has individuals, who were increasingly active in those markets. With This turnaround was largely thanks to absorbed the lion’s share of this capital, with a them joining the fray in the last two years, we have already seen all monetary and financial easing, as well as fivefold increase year on year (YoY), dwarfing these waves beating on the shores of mature markets. the lifting of purchase restrictions by the other primary cities. However, there has been a By shedding light on recent investment deals and activities government. With the Chinese economy flurry of activity by small- to mid-cap investors of Chinese investors, this paper intends to answer two key experiencing the worst slow-down since in projects below US$50 million, especially in questions. First, given the uncertainties in the Chinese market, 2008, the government is eager not to let primary and secondary American cities. going into 2016, will there be a tapering of investment from China? a stagnant real estate market drag down u De-coupled from the uncertainties of China’s Second, what will bring investors to the market? consumption and the GDP. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Knight Frank Research domestic economy, Chinese outbound capital is set to grow. This is not just the result of the government’s various capital liberalisation initiatives, such as the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) schemes, but also, perhaps more importantly, an outcome of China’s long-term national strategy both to project its trade and investment prowess globally and to ensure financial stability. u When compared with gateway cities, the yield spread in some leading regional centres has continued to improve over 2014, indicating the relative attractiveness of these cities for investors, especially small- to mid-cap ones. However, large investors will continue to favour gateway cities because of the availability of stock, capital value and rental growth. Gateway cities with a strong quality pipeline, relative stability, active occupier activity and sustained income growth will continue to benefit from the growing outflow of Chinese capital. 2 3 KnightFrank.com.cn KnightFrank.com.hk Chinese Outbound Real Estate Investment: New Waves, New Destinations purchasing power is not as strong it under 10% for developers and less FIGURE 2 as that in the first-tier cities. With than 5% for insurance companies. As , TABLE 2 Chinese outbound global real estate cash flow a major problem, turning to a result, in 2015 we continued to see WHO Outbound investment status of investment volume major Chinese developers and insurance companies overseas markets seems to be a viable many mega-deals taking place around US$ bn option for these developers. the world, with the majority in gateway WHAT & Developers cities (See Table 1). The recent RMB devaluation and stock 2014 Outbound Outbound market turbulence has also contributed A comparison with the same list of Rank Developer Property sales investment investment to market uncertainty, which has led 2014, which featured a similar number WHERE? (US$ billion) status (2014) status (2015) of London deals but only two New York 1 Greenland Group 37.7 u u to investor wariness of further policy More developers enter the intervention. This underscores the need deals, revealed that in 2015 investors 2 Vanke Group 33.7 u u for diversification for Chinese investors, were focusing more on New York, while market, while insurers snap 3 Wanda Group 25.1 u u particularly overseas. London stagnates. Investor interest up trophy assets 4 Poly Real Estate 21.4 u u in Australia, particularly Sydney, has 5 Evergrande Group 20.6 u u In 2015 there was significantly more Outbound capital not diminished as many had feared, 6 Country Garden 20.2 u u Chinese developers in the country’s continues to flow even after the latest RMB devaluation China Overseas Land & top-20 list investing overseas (increasing 7 17.6 u u and with demand for natural resources Investment Against this background, there were from 10 to 14), reflecting the need this weakening. Australian prices, coupled 8 Greentown China 12.4 u u some predictions of a retrenchment group sees to diversify their investments with strong Chinese buying power and 9 Sunac China 11.2 u u of Chinese outbound investment. Our amidst fierce domestic competition (See continued weakness in the Australian 10 Shimao Property 11.0 u u latest statistics, however, point to the dollar, has continued to attract capital Table 2). In contrast, there has been 11 China Resources Land 11.0 u u opposite. In the first 10 months of 2015, inflow. only a limited increase in the number of total volume of Chinese outbound real top-20 insurers investing abroad (four in 12 R&F Properties 8.5 u u estate investment has already exceeded It is worth noting that there were several 2014 and six in 2015). Caution is key, as 13 CFLD 8.0 u u that of the entire previous year. By the mega-deals made by Chinese investors there has been hardly any movement in 14 China Merchants Property 8.0 u u end of 2015, the total Chinese outbound in Hong Kong in 2015 that would easily the bottom half of the list, most of whom 15 Longfor Properties 7.7 u u capital has reached nearly US$30 billion make the top 10 list in Table 1, edging are either financially less ambitious about 16 Gemdale Corporation 7.7 u u (See Figure 2), doubling that of 2014. out several deals at the bottom. As we expanding beyond their national borders 17 Agile Properties 6.9 u u discuss later in the report, Hong Kong or have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. 18 Sino Ocean Land 6.3 u u Investors, especially heavyweights with has recently seen renewed interest from Beijing Capital In dollar terms, however, 2015 has 19 3.9 u u ample financial power, seem to be able Chinese investors. Development to decouple from any negative impact proved to be the most productive year 20 Future Holdings 3.8 u u that domestic policies and the economy for Chinese insurers, with more than US$4 billion spent buying overseas might have.
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