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Buying Times for China Property Stocks

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Buying Times for China Property Stocks Construction & real estate / China 6 July 2011 Housing China Buying times for China property stocks • We identify the 10 key areas investors in China-property stocks should focus on to make profitable investment decisions • We expect the leading developers to benefit from positive housing- demand growth • Developers are likely to increase their non-residential exposure Guangzhou R&F (R&F), Glorious suggests names like China Overseas Property and Yuexiu Property Land & Investment (Coli), China (Yuexiu). For investors with long- Vanke, China Resources Land (CR term horizons (three years), our Land) and Longfor. For non- five-factor model (scale, earnings residential plays, investors should Danny Bao, CFA efficiency, balance sheet, access to consider Franshion Properties China (852) 2773 8715 [email protected] capital and earnings sustainability) (Franshion). Yunye Lu (852) 2848 4923 [email protected] What to consider when investing in the China Property Sector The China Property Sector has lost much of its investor appeal over the past 12 months, due to its significant underperformance against the country index over the past two years, and the government’s tightening measures. However, we expect positive housing-demand growth over the next five years to boost the earnings of the leading developers. We believe the current policy regime will lead to industry competition and market-share consolidation intensifying in the residential segment, but expect this to benefit the leading players. We expect more developers to increase their non- residential exposure to diversify their earnings bases. Six-month/three-year investment considerations We believe the sector’s depressed valuations clearly make the risk/reward profile more attractive. For short-term trading ideas based on relative valuations, we recommend laggards such as Source: Daiwa Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. Table of contents Buying times for China property stocks........................................................................................... 1 Part I - does policy matter for China property stocks?....................................................................6 Part II – soft landing or hard landing?........................................................................................... 10 Part III - does public housing lead to lower industry returns? ..................................................... 14 Part IV – do business models matter for developers?................................................................... 18 Part V – does stock selection matter? ...........................................................................................23 Part VI - does asset class matter?................................................................................................... 27 Part VII – does government backing matter?................................................................................ 31 Part VIII – what matters in the next cycle? ...................................................................................35 Part IX – are M&A activity and privatisations on the horizon? ....................................................39 Part X - what are our top picks on six-month/three-year horizons? ..............................................43 Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. Housing China 6 July 2011 Executive summary Buying times for China property stocks In this report, we identify the 10 key areas investors in China-property stocks should focus on to make profitable investment decisions amid the government’s policies to cool home prices. Investment thesis We expect positive residential housing-demand growth amid the Residential demand government’s public-housing initiatives to have a positive impact on the earnings of the leading developers. We expect this new trend to change the growth remains intact, industry’s growth model, and for more developers to increase their non- while government residential exposure to diversify their earnings bases. Investors with initiatives should ease shorter investment horizons (six months) should consider relative supply shortages valuations and earnings-growth expectations, while long-term investors (three years) should consider our five-factor model for stock selection. Investors should also look at certain non-residential plays. On a six-month basis, we like R&F, Glorious Property, and Yuexiu. Meanwhile, on a three-year horizon, we like Coli, Vanke, CR Land, and Longfor, which we believe investors should try to acquire at cheaper valuations in the event of any sector weakness in the future. Valuations The sector is trading currently at about a 35% discount to our NAV estimate, Wide divergence in stock and at about an 8.7x PER on our 2011 EPS forecasts. The recent rally in large-cap developers’ shares has caused the sector’s NAV discount to valuations implies an narrow. However, we still see plenty of value in laggard stocks in the mid- opportunity for solid and small-cap spaces. We see limited near-term upside potential for the returns large-cap names, due to the recent share-price rally. Profit outlook We expect the sector to record positive earnings growth for the next three Earnings growth for the years. We believe the leading developers that have scale, high earnings efficiency, access to cheap capital, and reasonable balance sheets are likely leading players likely to to record stronger earnings growth than their peers over the period. We accelerate expect delivery-volume growth to drive the sector’s earnings growth. Meanwhile, we also expect the earnings contributions from non-residential assets to improve in the future. Key stock calls EPS (local curr.) Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg China Overseas Land & Investment 688 HK Buy Buy 19.00 19.00 0.0 1.434 1.434 0.0 1.746 1.746 0.0 China Resources Land 1109 HK Outperform Outperform 15.10 15.10 0.0 0.966 0.966 0.0 1.052 1.052 0.0 Country Garden 2007 HK Outperform Outperform 3.90 3.90 0.0 0.284 0.284 0.0 0.374 0.374 0.0 Guangzhou R&F Properties 2777 HK Buy Buy 13.70 13.70 0.0 1.256 1.256 0.0 1.535 1.535 0.0 Franshion Properties China 817 HK Buy Buy 2.80 2.80 0.0 0.137 0.137 0.0 0.167 0.167 0.0 Glorious Property 845 HK Buy Buy 3.50 3.50 0.0 0.310 0.310 0.0 0.404 0.404 0.0 Yuexiu Property 123 HK Buy Buy 1.96 1.96 0.0 0.150 0.150 0.0 0.221 0.221 0.0 Source: Daiwa forecasts - 3 - Housing China 6 July 2011 Danny Bao, CFA Daiwa stock picks: six-month investment horizon (852) 2773 8715 5 Jul Target Share price % [email protected] Company Ticker Rating Currency price (HK$) Upside Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 1 HK$ 11.26 13.70 22 Key stock ideas: six months Franshion 817 HK 1 HK$ 2.09 2.80 34 Glorious 845 HK 1 HK$ 2.52 3.50 39 Yuexiu Property 123 HK 1 HK$ 1.56 1.96 26 Source: Daiwa China Property Sector: valuation comparison 2012 Price vs Price vs Target Target 5 Jul Mkt 2011 yr.-end current forward Target price/ price/ Share cap Current forward NAV NAV price current forward PER PBR Company Ticker Rating Currency price (US$m) NAV NAV (%) (%) (HK$) NAV NAV FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E *Coli 688 HK 1 HK$ 17.48 18,361 22.9 22.3 (23.7) (21.6) 19.00 (17.0) (14.8) 12.2 10.0 2.1 1.7 *China Vanke - B 200002 CH 1 HK$ 10.82 15,351 11.4 13.0 (5.1) (16.8) 11.70 2.6 (10.0) 12.6 11.0 2.0 1.7 *CR Land 1109 HK 2 HK$ 15.14 10,485 20.8 21.0 (27.2) (27.9) 15.10 (27.4) (28.1) 15.7 14.4 1.6 1.4 Poly Real Estate 600048 CH NR Rmb 11.33 10,428 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.2 8.0 1.8 1.6 Evergrande 3333 HK NR HK$ 5.39 10,392 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.0 6.2 1.7 1.8 *Longfor 960 HK 3 HK$ 13.02 8,627 18.3 19.0 (28.9) (31.5) 12.35 (32.5) (35.0) 14.0 10.3 2.8 2.2 *Country Garden 2007 HK 2 HK$ 3.77 8,092 5.4 5.6 (30.2) (32.7) 3.90 (27.8) (30.4) 10.9 8.7 1.9 1.6 Agile 3383 HK NR HK$ 13.00 5,802 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.6 7.1 1.7 1.4 Shimao 813 HK NR HK$ 10.68 4,872 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.4 6.3 1.1 0.9 *SOHO 410 HK 3 HK$ 7.26 4,841 8.4 8.9 (13.6) (18.4) 6.20 (26.2) (30.3) 11.3 6.8 1.5 1.2 *Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK 1 HK$ 11.26 4,664 21.7 22.8 (48.1) (50.6) 13.70 (36.9) (39.9) 7.5 6.2 1.4 1.2 Renhe 1387 HK NR HK$ 1.48 4,056 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.8 5.0 1.6 1.3 Shanghai Industrial 363 HK NR HK$ 28.75 3,990 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.8 8.3 0.9 0.9 Sino Ocean 3377 HK NR HK$ 4.36 3,176 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.0 6.6 0.6 0.6 Poly HK Investment 119 HK NR HK$ 6.27 2,908 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
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