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Meandering to Recovery: Post-Nargis Social Impacts Monitoring Ten Years After

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Meandering to Recovery: Post-Nargis Social Impacts Monitoring Ten Years After Meandering to Recovery Post-Nargis Social Impacts Monitoring Ten Years After 27538_Cover.indd 3 3/9/18 1:12 PM Meandering to Recovery: Post-Nargis Social Impacts Monitoring Ten Years After World Bank Enlightened Myanmar Research Foundation Andaman Research & Advisory With financial support from the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 27538_GFDRR_SIM5.indd 1 3/15/18 11:15 AM © 2018 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu- sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Photos: © Enlightened Myanmar Research Foundation. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: © Shepherd Incorporated. Further permission required for reuse. 27538_GFDRR_SIM5.indd 2 3/15/18 11:15 AM Contents Acknowledgments . .vii Abbreviations . ix Summary . xi Chapter 1: Introduction . 1 Myanmar in 2017: The Context of the SIM 5 Research ................................................1 Post-Nargis Recovery through Four Rounds of Research ..............................................2 Chapter 2: Livelihoods . .5 Farming .....................................................................................6 Fishing .....................................................................................12 Labor .......................................................................................15 Chapter 3: Credit, Debt, and Land . 21 Credit and Debt ..............................................................................21 Land .......................................................................................26 Chapter 4: Social Relations . .29 Inter-Household Relations ............................................................................29 Relations within Village Groupings ..............................................................30 Relations across the Village ....................................................................31 Inter-Ethnic and Inter-Religious Social Relations ..................................................33 Factors Driving Changes to Village Social Relations ................................................34 Introduction of Social Protection ...............................................................35 Chapter 5: Leadership and Institutions . .37 Leadership in the Delta ........................................................................37 Formal Leaders ..............................................................................38 Informal Leaders .............................................................................42 iii 27538_GFDRR_SIM5.indd 3 3/15/18 11:15 AM iv Meandering to Recovery: Post-Nargis Social Impacts Monitoring Ten Years After Chapter 6: Infrastructure and Housing . .43 Village Infrastructure .........................................................................43 Inter-Village Infrastructure ....................................................................48 Village Housing ..............................................................................48 Chapter 7: Recovery and Resilience . 53 Recovery ....................................................................................53 Resilience ...................................................................................55 Preparedness ................................................................................56 Chapter 8: Implications for Future Aid . .61 For Future Post-Disaster Aid ....................................................................61 For Future Development Assistance to the Delta ...................................................62 Chapter 9: Post-Disaster Social Impacts in the Literature . .65 Chapter 10: Final Reflections . 71 Annex 1: Social Impacts Monitoring Methodology . .75 Annex 2: Location of the Sample Villages . .79 List of Tables Table 1: Livelihood Calendar ....................................................................7 Table 2: Farming Conditions by Township, 2013 and 2017 ............................................8 Table 3: Farming Conditions by Degree of Cyclone Affectedness, 2013 and 2017 ..........................8 Table 4: Average Cost of Production by Acre .......................................................8 Table 5: Monsoon Paddy Yield Since before Nargis by Degree of Affectedness ............................9 Table 6: Monsoon Paddy Yield Variability by Degree of Affectedness ...................................9 Table 7: Average Reported Price of Monsoon Paddy .................................................9 Table 8: Variance in Harvest Prices over Time .....................................................10 Table 9: Yields of Hilsa ........................................................................14 Table 10: Prices for Hilsa ......................................................................14 Table 11: Fishing Conditions by Degree of Affectedness over the Last 5 Years ...........................14 Table 12: Changes in Wages 2007–2017 ..........................................................16 Table 13: Outmigration by Degree of Affectedness ..................................................18 Table 14: Indebtedness by Degree of Affectedness .................................................21 Table 15: Sources of Credit by Livelihood Group ...................................................22 Table 16: Indicative Debt Levels by Degree of Affectedness across Various Livelihood Groups .............25 Table 17: Frequency of Borrowing against Land by Degree of Affectedness .............................27 Table 18: Village-Level Social Relations between 2013 and 2017, by Degree of Affectedness ...............29 Table 19: Village-Level Changes in Social Relations since 2013, by Degree of Affectedness ................30 Table 20: Perceptions of Local Formal Leaders by Degree of Affectedness ..............................38 Table 21: Most Important Local Leader by Degree of Affectedness .....................................39 27538_GFDRR_SIM5.indd 4 3/15/18 11:15 AM Contents v Table 22: Leader Age and Education, 2013 and 2017, by Degree of Affectedness .........................40 Table 23: New Leaders Following Local Elections ...................................................40 Table 24: Quality of Key Infrastructure, 2013 and 2017 .............................................44 Table 25: Good Quality of Key Infrastructure, by Degree of Affectedness ...............................44 Table 26: Number of Villages with Good Quality of Key Infrastructure, by Connectivity ...................45 Table 27: Connectivity by Degree of Affectedness ..................................................45 Table 28: Villages ‘Left Behind’ by Infrastructure Development .......................................46 Table 29: Infrastructure Funding Source by Sector .................................................47 Table 30: Number of Infrastructure Projects in Villages by Funding Source and Degree of Affectedness .....48 Table 31: Recovery of Villages by Degree of Affectedness, 2017 .......................................53 Table 32: Importance of Various Factors for Household Recovery .....................................54 Table 33: Importance of Various Factors for Community Recovery ....................................54 Table 34: Resilience of Villages by Degree of Affectedness, 2017 .....................................55 Table 35: Capacity of Households to Recover .....................................................56 Table 36: Capacity of Communities to Recover by Factor ............................................56 List of Figures Figure 1: Economic Standing of Villages, 2013 and 2017 .............................................5 Figure 2: Average Credit Sources per Village by Degree of Affectedness ................................22 Figure 3: Average Debt Levels over Time ..........................................................24 Figure 4: Highest Debt Year for Farmers ..........................................................25 Figure 5: Proportion of Funders to Inter-Village Infrastructure Improvement ............................48 Figure 6: Poverty Rates in Myanmar by Region/State ...............................................72 Figure 7: Welfare Index in Ayeyarwady and Yangon Regions .........................................72 List of Case Studies Case Study 1: A Farmer Invests in Embankments to Save His Livelihood ...............................11
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