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Reforestation Forecast Methodology V1.0

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Reforestation Forecast Methodology V1.0 Reforestation Forecast Methodology Version 1.0 | March 2, 2020 A program of the Climate Forward, a program of the Climate Action Reserve www.climateforward.org Released March 2, 2020 © 2020 Climate Action Reserve. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced, displayed, modified, or distributed without the express written permission of the Climate Action Reserve. Reforestation Forecast Methodology Version 1.0, March 2, 2020 Acknowledgements Methodology Developed By: Climate Action Reserve Methodology Developer Staff John Nickerson Dogwood Springs Forestry Jon Remucal Climate Action Reserve David Shoch Terra Carbon Sarah Wescott Climate Action Reserve Methodology Reviewers Craig Ebert Climate Action Reserve Scott Settelmyer Terra Carbon Robert Lee Climate Action Reserve Reforestation Forecast Methodology Version 1.0, March 2, 2020 Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms ...................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 2 About Forests, Carbon Dioxide, and Climate Change .................................................. 3 Conceptual Approach to Quantifying GHG Removals from Reforestation Projects with Ex Ante and Ex Post Crediting Options .................................................................................. 3 2 The GHG Enhancement Project .......................................................................................... 5 Project Definition .......................................................................................................... 5 The Project Proponent ................................................................................................. 5 3 Eligibility Rules .................................................................................................................... 7 Location ....................................................................................................................... 8 Project Start Date and Crediting Period ....................................................................... 8 Additionality ................................................................................................................. 9 3.3.1 The Performance Standard Test ........................................................................... 9 3.3.2 The Legal Requirement Test ................................................................................. 9 Environmental and Social Safeguards ........................................................................10 Regulatory Compliance ...............................................................................................10 Ownership and Double Counting ................................................................................10 Project Resilience Measures .......................................................................................11 Ensuring Permanence ................................................................................................11 3.8.1 Tonne-Tonne Accounting .....................................................................................11 3.8.2 Tonne-Year Accounting .......................................................................................12 3.8.3 Conservative Crediting .........................................................................................15 Market Expansion Objective .......................................................................................16 Demonstration of Ex Ante Suitability ...........................................................................16 4 The GHG Assessment Boundary .......................................................................................17 5 Quantifying GHG Emission Removals ................................................................................23 Estimating Baseline Carbon Stocks ............................................................................23 Estimating Project Carbon Stocks ...............................................................................23 5.2.1 Basis for Estimates of Forecasted GHG Removals ..............................................23 5.2.2 Determining Gross Forecasted GHG Removals ...................................................25 Estimating Performance Decline .................................................................................26 Estimating Abandonment Rates ..................................................................................26 Accounting for Secondary Effects ...............................................................................26 5.5.1 Combustion Emissions Associated with Machinery Use in Site Preparation ........26 5.5.2 Activity-Shifting Leakage ......................................................................................27 Reforestation Forecast Methodology Version 1.0, March 2, 2020 6 Project Implementation and Monitoring ..............................................................................29 Quantification Parameters ...........................................................................................29 Voluntary Ongoing Monitoring Incentive ......................................................................29 7 Reporting and Record Keeping ..........................................................................................31 Project Submittal and Confirmation Documentation ....................................................31 Record Keeping ..........................................................................................................31 Reporting and Confirmation Period .............................................................................32 8 Confirmation Guidance ......................................................................................................34 Standard of Confirmation ............................................................................................34 Confirming the Project Implementation Report ............................................................34 Core Confirmation Activities ........................................................................................35 8.3.1 Reviewing GHG Management Systems and Estimation Methodologies ...............35 8.3.2 Confirming Emission Enhancement Estimates .....................................................35 8.3.3 Undertaking Site Visits .........................................................................................35 Confirmation Items ......................................................................................................35 8.4.1 Project Eligibility and Credit Issuance ..................................................................35 8.4.2 Quantification .......................................................................................................37 Completing Confirmation.............................................................................................39 9 Glossary of Terms ..............................................................................................................40 10 References .....................................................................................................................43 Appendix A Confirmation of Seedling Stocking ....................................................................44 Appendix B Quantification of Brush Cover Removed as Part of Site Preparation Activities .46 Reforestation Forecast Methodology Version 1.0, March 2, 2020 List of Tables Table 3.1. Basis for Determining Length of a Project’s Crediting Period ....................................14 Table 4.1. Description of all Sources, Sinks, and Reservoirs .....................................................17 Table 5.1. Example of Tonne-Year Values and Cumulative Crediting .......................................24 Table 5.2. Example of Tonne-Year Values and Cumulative Crediting when Conservation Easement with Required RM Terms ..........................................................................................25 Table 6.1. Project Implementation Parameters..........................................................................29 Table 8.1. Eligibility Confirmation Items ....................................................................................36 Table 8.2. Quantification Confirmation Items .............................................................................38 List of Figures Figure 1.1. Relationship between Crediting in Climate Forward and the Reserve’s Offset Program ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3.1. Example of Gross FMUs that are Issued Based on Landowner Class or Conservation Easement Term Length for the Lodgepole Pine PWE Forest Community ............15 Figure 5.1. Activity Shifting (“Leakage”) Risk Assessment for Reforestation Projects ................28 Figure A.1. Examples of the Application of the Uniform Plot Distribution Requirement…………44 Figure B.1. i-Tree Canopy Startup Screen Step 1…………………………………………………..47 Figure B.2. i-Tree Canopy Startup Screen Step 2 .....................................................................47 Figure B.3. Cover Class Configuration Screen ..........................................................................48 Figure B.4. Tree Benefit Valuation Screen ................................................................................48
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