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G20090007/Oedo-2009-0007 Volcanic and seismic hazards — Global Collaborative Navigation ❍ Home ❍ Global Problem Solving ❍ CanKor Virtual ThinkNet ❍ Nautilus Institute ■ About Nautilus ■ Global Problem Solving ■ Nautilus - San Francisco ■ Nautilus - Northeast Asia ■ Nautilus - Australia ■ Austral Peace and Security Network ■ Re-framing Australia-Indonesia security ■ Climate change and security ■ Australia-Indonesia nuclear dynamics ■ Nuclear developments and Australia-Indonesia security ■ Australia - nuclear proliferation ■ Indonesia - nuclear proliferation ■ Indonesia - nuclear power ■ Muria peninsula nuclear power proposal ■ Maps ■ Images ■ Muria nuclear power plant Islamic jurisprudence materials ■ http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/reframing/aust-ind-nuclear/ind-np/muria/vulcanology (1 of 19)5/11/2009 3:04:12 AM Volcanic and seismic hazards — Global Collaborative Volcanic and seismic hazards ■ ASEAN nuclear power ■ Australian Forces Abroad ■ Australia-Japan cooperation for nuclear disarmament ■ Programs ❍ NGO Research Center ❍ Northeast Asia Online Peace Forum ❍ Pelangi Indonesia ❍ RMIT Climate Change Adaptation Program ❍ Singapore Institute of International Affairs ❍ Viet Nam Green Building Council ❍ About the Global Collaborative ❍ Members Critical Articles What are Global Problems Global Civil Society Overview Preventing Nuclear Next Use Log in Login Name Password Forgot your password? New user? Search Site Advanced Search… http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/reframing/aust-ind-nuclear/ind-np/muria/vulcanology (2 of 19)5/11/2009 3:04:12 AM Volcanic and seismic hazards — Global Collaborative Personal tools ● Log in ● Join Document Actions ● ● Volcanic and seismic hazards by Richard Tanter — last modified 16-Apr-2009 15:37 This page collates all significant publicly available documents relating to the volcanic, seismic and tectonic characteristics of the proposed Ujung Lemah Abang nuclear power plant site and its environs. Introduction ● Key volcanic and seismic issues ● Site description ● The McBirney et al 2003 study ● The Sumintadiredja et al 2007 study ● Japanese seismic standards and the proposed Muria nuclear power plant site ● Later volcanic and seismic studies Analysis ● General sources ● May 26 2006 Jogjakarta earthquake ● Sidoarjo mudflow ● Muria analyses (reverse chronological) Introduction Volcanic and seismic hazards associated with the proposed Ujung Lemah Abang nuclear power plant site have been repeatedly addressed in official studies over three decades by the Indonesian National Nuclear Agency (BATAN) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Major consultant studies were conducted for BATAN by NIRA (Nucleare Italiana Reattori Avanzati), http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/reframing/aust-ind-nuclear/ind-np/muria/vulcanology (3 of 19)5/11/2009 3:04:12 AM Volcanic and seismic hazards — Global Collaborative NewJEC (originally New Japan Engineering Consultants, a subsidiary of Kansai Electric), and the National Technical Team (NTT, Indonesia). However, none of the original reports from these major studies are publicly available. Nevertheless, some summary materials have been published, and some of the scientists and consultants have published parts of their findings in academic and research journals. Key volcanic and seismic issues ● The Muria volcanic complex is a capable volcano. ● The proposed nuclear power plant site is definitely within screening distance values for fallout of pyroclastic material, pyroclastic flows and surges, debris flows, lahars, floods, and opening of new vents. ● Indonesian researchers have identified two major north-south faults through the Muria volcanic complex. ● While there appear to be no capable faults at or near the site of the proposed nuclear plant the nature of the foundation sediments at the site and the high level of ground water raise serious concerns in the face of wider seismogenic conditions. ● Indonesian government claims that there are no significant volcanic or seismic hazards attached to the proposed Muria nuclear power plant site are not supported by public reports by IAEA and Indonesian government consultants with access to restricted official studies. ● Almost all official Indonesian and IAEA volcanic and seismic studies have been kept from the public domain over more than three decades. ● One report which utilized these numerous studies draw attention to significant methodological and data limitations in these studies. ● Reliance on earthquake resistance standards derived from earlier Japanese modelling is inappropriate due to great differences between the site's geological conditions and those in Japan. ● Japanese authorities no longer use the earthquake safety standards that these reports are based upon. In 2007, they substantially rewrote their safety standards based on their experience of the 2007 Chuetsu earthquake which caused serious damage to a reactor in Niigata. Ujung Lemah Abang - Desa Balong area - Google Earth http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/reframing/aust-ind-nuclear/ind-np/muria/vulcanology (4 of 19)5/11/2009 3:04:12 AM Volcanic and seismic hazards — Global Collaborative Desa Balong: 1:25000 Desa Balong, extracted from Keling Lembar 1409 – 621, Skala 1:25,000, Peta Rupabumi Digital Indonesia, , Badan Koordinasi Survei dan Pemataan Nasional (BAKOSURTANAL), Edisi I – 1999. Source: Desa Balong, extracted from Keling Lembar 1409 – 621, Skala 1:25,000, Peta Rupabumi Digital Indonesia, Badan Koordinasi Survei dan Pemataan Nasional (BAKOSURTANAL), Edisi I – 1999. Site description Very limited technical information is available about the precise geological and hydrological characteristics of the Ujung Lemahabang site itself. An IAEA document (2000) prepared by BATAN contributors provided the following description One of the best candidate site selected for the medium reactors (MRs), based on the assessment study up to the writing of this document, is on the North coast of the Muria peninsula, tentatively at Ujung Lemahabang. The size of this tentatively preferred site is approximately 3 Km length in East-West direction and 2 Km wide in North-South direction. Elevated land in a height of about 10 m is well developed at the coast continued by gentle hilly slope behind it. The depth of moderately harder layer lies about 12 m below Mean Sea Level. http://www.globalcollab.org/Nautilus/australia/reframing/aust-ind-nuclear/ind-np/muria/vulcanology (5 of 19)5/11/2009 3:04:12 AM Volcanic and seismic hazards — Global Collaborative Ujung Lemahabang site lies on volcanic and sedimentary rocks of Pleistocene. Site geology mainly consists of four zones: soil zone, upper tuff zone, middle sandstone zone and lower tuff zone. The mean value of unconfined compressive strength of each rock type/class of the bedrock varies between 16 kgf/cm2 and 62 kgf/cm2. The McBirney et al 2003 study The most important study publicly available, McBirney et al, Volcanic and seismic hazards at a proposed nuclear power site in central Java, (2003), resulted from an invitation in 1991 by the Indonesian government to the IAEA to evaluate existing safety studies of the proposed Muria site. The investigation of the volcanic and seismic hazards was carried out over a period of eight years "first by the contractor and later by a joint team of Indonesian geologists and consultants to the International Atomic Energy Agency." The lack of well-established internationally accepted guidelines for hazard assessment in such cases led to the IAEA forming a panel to prepare a Safety Code between 1993-1997. The result was the IAEA document titled Provisional Safety Standards Series No. 1, Volcanoes and Associated Topics in Relation to Nuclear Power Plant Siting, issued in July 1997. This process and the subsequent guideline framework is set out in McBirney and Godoy, Notes on the IAEA Guidelines for Assessing Volcanic Hazards at Nuclear Facilities, (2003). Examples considered by the IAEA team included the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, the proposed Muria project, the Yucca Mountain Repository in Nevada, the Mulheim-Karlich Nuclear Power Plant in Germany, and the Petropavlovsk-50 facility in Kamchatka. McBirney and his colleagues carried out their study of Muria volcanic and seismic hazards at the same time as collaborating on the development of the IAEA volcanic hazards guidelines, and published their studies on both matters in the same issue of a leading scientific journal in the field. The McBirney et al study was also the most procedurally transparent and open about its sources and their limitations. As well as carrying out their own surveys, McBirney et al drew on the findings of earlier studies by BATAN, NIRA and NTT. However they were sharply critical of the limitations of earlier seismic studies and of datasets in particular: The seismological database for the Muria region was very poor, and no reliable earthquake catalogue was available. There had been very little useful investigation of primary historical or instrumental data for earthquakes occurring in the region. A record of instrumental seismicity was compiled using data from eight stations in three different networks that were operating on Muria Peninsula for different periods during the project...The exact number of recorded events is not known but is of the order of several hundred and maximum magnitude is in the range of 3-4. Unfortunately, the records from these sources were never combined into a single data set for all of Muria Peninsula. The epicenter determinations are not very reliable and hypocenters,
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