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Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update

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Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update India Solar Quarterly Market Update Too Much Too Fast? Falling Tariffs Causing Concern in The Indian Solar Market May 2016 KEY FINDINGS Mercom forecasts approximately 5 GW of solar installations in India for CY 2016 With 2.2 GW installed to date; cumulative installations have surged to 7.5 GW as of May 2016 Solar energy now represents 2.5% of total installed power capacity in India, up from 1.4% a year ago - and was the fastest growing new renewable energy source The solar development pipeline now stands at 22 GW with over 13 GW under construction Module prices have declined slightly over the last three months Currently, 19 developers have bid below ₹5 (~$0.0735) for 2.9 GW worth of solar capacity across 46 projects. About 1.2 GW of these projects have signed PPAs Low bids through reverse auctions continue to be a major issue List of Charts/Tables India Solar Installations (MW) ……………………………………………………………..……………….. 2 Utility-Scale Solar Projects in India …………………………………………………………….................. 3 India Solar Policy Map ………..…….………………….…….…………………………………….……….. 4 Domestic Interest Rates for Solar Project Financing (%) ………..…….….….…….………….……….. 5 All India Cumulative Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW) ……………………..…………………… 6 India Solar Project Pipeline (MW) …………………………….……………………………………….…… 6 JNNSM Phase II, Batch 2 Tenders/Auction Results ………………….................................................. 8 JNNSM Phase II, Batch 3 Tenders/Auction Results …………………................................................. 9 JNNSM Phase II, Batch 4 Tenders/Auction Results …………………................................................. 10 Details of Funds Sanctioned Under Solar Park Program ………………….......................................... 12 Indian Module ASP ……………………………………………………………………………...................... 13 Developers Bidding for Solar Projects Below ₹5……………………………….……..……..................... 14 Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India ( ₹/kWh) ……………………………..……...……...................... 14 Clean Energy Cess Fund Status ……………………………………………............................................ 15 Ministry-wise NCEF Fund Allocation by Year ………………….………………………………................ 15 Developers Over 1% Market Share of Operating Projects in India …………………….….....…….….. 16 20 Developers Account for ~71% of the Project Pipeline in India ………………………….....…….….. 16 India – Installed Power Capacity Mix (%) ……………………………………………………....…..….….. 17 Karnataka – List of LoAs Issued ……………………………………………..………………….…….….…. 23 Jharkhand – List of LoAs Issued ……………………………………………..……………….....……….…. 24 India Solar Installations (MW) By Location (May 2016) ……………………………………………….….. 25 ©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 1 Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Cumulative solar installations in India crossed 7.5 GW as of May 2016 with about 2.2 GW already installed so far this year, more than all of the solar installations in 2015. India’s solar project pipeline has now surpassed 22 GW with ~13 GW under construction and ~9 GW in the Request for Proposal (RfP) process. We are projecting solar installations in India to total approximately 5 GW for calendar year 2016. India Solar Installations (MW) May 2016 12,000 60,000 Annual Solar Installations 10,000 10,000 Cumulative Solar Installations 9,500 50,000 9,015 9,040 8,000 40,000 6,000 30,000 5,068 Annual(MW) Installations 4,000 20,000 Cumulative Installations (MW) CumulativeInstallations 2,133 2,000 10,000 986 1,004 883 6 12 172 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Data derived from MNRE, Mercom Project Tracker & Public Sources Source: Mercom Capital Group The Indian solar market is growing in size but many challenges remain, and the industry is asking: is it too much too fast? Focusing on the positives first, the solar market clearly is much larger than ever before with over 22 GW in various stages of development. The NDA government has shown a strong commitment towards solar and is working hard to achieve its goal of 100 GW by 2022 – it has to be commended for getting the market moving as witnessed with the growing numbers of reverse auctions. However, there are several challenges on the ground that need to be addressed for sector to move from 2 GW a year to a 10 GW a year market. Low bidding levels through reverse auctions have been a major issue. We reported in our previous update that most banks are unwilling to lend to projects below a ₹5 (~$0.0735)/kWh tariff. Since then, this subject has been discussed widely, but the fact still remains that reverse auctions are driving bids to unsustainably low levels and lenders are shying away from these risky projects. Developers are relying on optimistic assumptions to justify low bids but, unless banks can be convinced that these assumptions are realistic, financing will continue to be an issue. Government agencies are trying to meet installation goals as mandated, but it does not look like they have the processes and infrastructure in place yet to do so. The auction process is constantly delayed, causing developers grief; evacuation delays are costing developers; land acquisitions have long been an issue and may get worse; there is a lot of hype around solar parks, but most are not completely developed; DISCOM finances are still a mess; banks ©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 2 Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update saddled with non-performing assets (bad loans) are risk averse; and, several large developers are currently in the market looking for buyers for their project pipelines due to these tough conditions. Utility-Scale Solar Projects in India Operational and Under Development May 2016 Capacity (MW) In-Operation Solar PV 7,324.5 Solar Thermal 208.5 Total 7,533 Under Development Solar PV 13,512 Solar Thermal 280 Total 13,792 Source: Mercom Capital Group Another issue, which has been there since the beginning of India’s solar policy history, is the lack of technical qualification requirements. The bar is very low when it comes to required competency and experience building solar projects as long as you show the required finances and make the necessary deposits. There is a lack of incentives for top performers and disincentives for companies that don’t execute. It is difficult to imagine inexperienced developers, having the technical knowledge to factor in all the variables necessary to bid in a rational manner (though this can also apply to pure-play developers). Currently, there is a perception in the market that all of the risks have been dumped on the developers. While developers go through a cumbersome regulatory regime to build a project, they don’t feel that the government has done its part to make things efficient. A common theme is the hefty fines developers have to pay if they are delayed on any of the multitude of steps in the project development process, but if the delays occur on the government side the risk still falls on the developer. There is a urgent need for Government agencies to be held accountable for timely execution. To address these issues MNRE recently invited comments by stakeholders on "Draft Guidelines for Tariff Based Competitive Bidding Process for Grid Connected Solar PV Power Projects". Some of the issues that need to be addressed are: Delays – Some government agencies are overwhelmed and frequent delays are common which puts unnecessary pressure on developers. On Time Payments – There is no mechanism to ensure timely payments which would bring down borrowing costs and reduce risks. A billion dollar fund out of coal cess collections could act as a reserve backstop against non-payments. Evacuation Delays should not become a risk to the developer and should be compensated. Payment for grid unavailability should be compensated for instead of deferring it. Less hype, more execution – many solar parks are not complete; parks need to be 100 percent complete before the projects are auctioned and costs to develop in these parks must be priced competitively; the initial goal of governments for solar parks was to simplify project development, not make a profit. Many developers feel that solar parks are actually increasing the cost of projects as park fees are quite high compared to what the developers get in return. ©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 3 Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update India Solar Policy Map Phase I Batch 1 Batch 2 620 MW 350 MW (270 MW CSP pending) (In Operation) Phase II Batch 1 Batch 2 - Tranche I Batch 3 - 2,000 MW Batch 4 - 5,000 MW (Tender/Auction) Batch 5 - 1,000 MW Batch 6 - 50 MW 700 MW 3,000 MW (Tender/Auction) (CPSU) (High Visibility Areas) (20 MW pending) (Tender/Auction) 2,785 MW 1,900 MW 500 MW Ghani Solar Park (AP) - 500 MW Maharashtra Solar 250 MW Gujarat Solar Park TI Approved 17 CPSUs under seven 2 MW West Godavari Solar Auctioned Projects TI - Auctioned (Gujarat)) - Tendered different Ministries Projects (AP) - Tendered 250 MW Gujarat Solar Park TII 500 MW Gani Sakunala Solar (Gujarat) - 500 MW Odisha Solar Projects Park (AP) - Auctioned (Odisha) - Tendered Shifted to Batch 4 440 MW UP Solar Park TIII (UP) - 420 MW Bhadla PII Solar Park 500 MW Maharashtra Solar (Rajasthan) - Auctioned 125 MW Auctioned Projects (Maharashtra) - Yet to 315 MW Retendered Announce 100 MW UP Solar Projects (UP) - 500 MW Ananthapuram
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