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March 7, 2019 State of Michigan Retirement System Quarterly Investment Review

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March 7, 2019 State of Michigan Retirement System Quarterly Investment Review STATE OF MICHIGAN INVESTMENT BOARD MEETING March 7, 2019 State of Michigan Retirement System Quarterly Investment Review Rachael Eubanks, State Treasurer Prepared by Bureau of Investments Michigan Department of Treasury STATE OF MICHIGAN INVESTMENT BOARD MEETING MARCH 7, 2019 Agenda 9:30 a.m. Call to Order and Opening Remarks 9:40 a.m. Approval of the 12/11/18 SMIB Meeting Minutes 9:45 a.m. Executive Summary & Performance for Periods Ending 12/31/18 10:00 a.m. Current Asset Allocation Review Markets Review and Outlook 10:15 a.m. Review of Investment Reports Defined Contribution Fixed Income Real, Opportunistic, & Absolute Return Domestic Equity Private Equity – Receive and File International Equity – Receive and File Real Estate & Infrastructure – Receive and File 11:00 a.m. Public Comment Closing Remarks ~ Adjournment 2019 Meeting Schedule Thursday, June 6, 2019 Thursday, September 12, 2019 Thursday, December 12, 2019 All meetings start at 9:30 a.m. www.michigan.gov/treasury State of Michigan Retirement System MINUTES State of Michigan Investment Board Meeting March 7, 2019 Jon M. Braeutigam Chief Investment Officer Bureau of Investments STATE OF MICHIGAN INVESTMENT BOARD December 11, 2018 Meeting Minutes Members Present: Chair – Treasurer Nick Khouri Budget Director John Walsh (arrived 10:30 am) Ms. Dina Richard Mr. Reginald Sanders Members by Phone: Mr. James Nicholson Members of the Public and Bureau of Investments Staff Present: Molly Jason Craig Sabin Jack Behar Karl Borgquist Paul Lerg Richard Holcomb Mary Pollock Anthony Estell Kerrie VandenBosch Dave Klauka Matt Hutson Pavel Stolarczyk Barb Becker Craig Coulter June Morse Ann Stange Mark Porrell Nick Whitman Lan Chen Todd Warstler Jennifer Yeung Jim Elkins Jon Braeutigam Robert Brackenbury Peter Woodford Woody Tyler Travis Haney Greg Parker Giles Feldpausch Ann Storberg Marge McPhee Annette Russell Todd Warstler Patrick Moraniec Janet Sudac Lori Barrett Treasurer Khouri called the meeting to order at 9:30 am. Opening Remarks: Brief discussion by Chair Treasurer Khouri explaining that this is his last meeting as he will be retiring at the end of this month. He wished the State of Michigan Retirement System continued success. Approval of the November 27, 2018 SMIB Special Meeting Minutes – Motion to approve: Reginald Sanders. Seconded: Dina Richard. The vote was unanimous to approve. AGENDA Executive Summary Jon Braeutigam, Chief Investment Officer for the Bureau of Investments, discussed the plans returns over the past one, three, five, seven, and ten years. For each time period the plan had higher returns than the peer median. He believes that market returns will be lower going forward, and this view is shared by industry consultants in general. Asset Allocation Review, Markets Review and Outlook Gregory Parker, Director of Investments - Public Markets for the Bureau of Investments discussed that quality decision making is the foundation to obtain the returns that SMRS has experienced. He also discussed the overwhelming consensus view of lower returns going forward. 1 Review of Investment Reports – Public Woody Tyler, Senior Investment Manager of Defined Contribution, Trusts & Agencies presented a brief overview of the defined contribution plan noting that a more comprehensive look at defined contribution will ensue at the March meeting. Daniel Quigley, Senior Investment Manager of the Fixed Income Division discussed that the fixed income portfolio outperformed its benchmark and peer group across all time periods. Jack Behar, Senior Investment Manager of the Domestic Equity Division explained that they had a very strong year and experienced excellent performance on the growth side of the portfolio. Patrick Moraniec, Senior Investment Manager of the International Equity Division stated that the portfolio slightly outperformed the benchmark over the last twelve months. This was driven by developed market exposure. Review of Investment Reports – Private Peter Woodford, Senior Investment Manager of Private Equity explained that returns have been strong relative to peer median returns, ranking in the top 7% of peers over the past ten years. The outperformance to peers is attributed to fund selectivity and strategy. Jennifer Yeung, Senior Investment Manager of Real, Opportunistic, & Absolute Return explained that the division experienced a 6% return for the year with outperformance of the benchmark in the third quarter. This outperformance was driven by overweight exposure to credit strategies as well as manager selection. Todd Warstler, Senior Investment Manager of Real Estate & Infrastructure stated that outperformance relative to the one-year benchmark resulted from the divisions strategy. No big changes in this strategy are anticipated at this time. Public Comment Treasurer Khouri asked that any attendees wishing to address the Board come forward. No public comment. Treasurer Khouri adjourned the meeting at 11:02 am. Motion to adjourn by Dina Richard. Seconded: Reginald Sanders. The vote was unanimous to adjourn. Approved: _________________________________ Rachael Eubanks, Chairman 2 State of Michigan Retirement System EXECUTIVE SUMMARY State of Michigan Investment Board Meeting March 7, 2019 Gregory J. Parker, CFA Director of Investments – Public Markets Director of Asset Allocation Bureau of Investments EXECUTIVE SUMMARY December 2018 Performance Great peer comparison. MPSERS Plan (12/31/18) 1-Year 3-Years 5-Years 7-Years 10-Years Annualized Returns 2.7% 8.6% 8.0% 9.8% 9.6% Policy Returns 1.7% 9.1% 7.7% 10.0% 10.3% Peer Median Returns* -2.1% 6.7% 5.6% 8.2% 8.5% *State Street Universe greater than $10 billion. Over the past one, three, five, seven, and ten years, the returns are significantly higher than peer median returns. Compared to the State Street Universe of public pension plans greater than $10 billion, the returns are mostly within the top decile of returns. Also, over this time period, the plans’ returns were among the least risky, as measured by standard deviation. The ten-year return includes the impact of the global financial crisis. Over a very long horizon, since 1979, the annualized rate of return on the plan assets has been approximately 9.3%. Compounding at higher than peer returns can add significant value. For example, based on the $44.5 billion December 2008 market value, a ten-year annualized return of 9.6% compared to the 8.5% peer median return would add about $11 billion in excess value. Due to these gains, it is estimated that General Fund and School Aid Fund 2018 fiscal year annual contributions into pension fund pools are nearly $780 million less than they would have been if SMRS had earned the peer average investment return. The returns beat the policy benchmark over the past year by 1.0%. Many of the asset classes posted results in excess of their performance benchmarks; selectivity in real return & opportunistic, real estate, domestic equity, absolute return and fixed income all were significant drivers of excess return. For the year ending December 2018, returns exceeded the peer median return by 4.8%, earning the highest return in the State Street peer universe. Most of the individual asset class returns were better than median over this time-period, and Fixed Income and Real Estate returned the highest in their respective peer universes as well. Asset Allocation A low return environment. Given the low rates of return available in the capital markets for safe assets, and in order to earn the actuarial rates of returns, additional risks (primarily equity risk) must be assumed. Liquidity is another fundamental risk assumed and it is managed through asset allocation. The plans have outstanding capital commitments to fund approximately $12.4 billion in illiquid assets, primarily in private equity. In the December 2018 quarter, over $1.5 billion of new commitments were made. The combined systems paid out approximately $2.0 billion net of contributions over the past twelve months ending in December 2018. Over the past year, real return & opportunistic was a net purchaser of approximately $760 million, fixed income of $125 million, and both private equity and absolute return were around $100 million. Over the past year in round numbers, the allocation to domestic equity was reduced by $770 million and real estate by $720 million. The allocation to short-term cash decreased by approximately $1.5 billion. 1 Capital Markets Risk assets in focus. Capital market assumptions used for determining strategic asset allocations are being reduced across the board, and especially for safer, publicly traded fixed income securities. This is the general opinion for most consultants, investment banks, and other market participants. The reason for this phenomenon is the low interest rate environment caused by the policies of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as the run-up in prices for most risk assets over the past several years since the depths of the Great Recession. Private real estate was the best performing asset class for 2018, returning approximately 6.7%. Publicly traded REITs fell in value by -4.1% including dividend returns. Fundamentals supporting domestic equities are still strong. Year-over-year growth in analyst estimated earnings for the next year are close to 12%. Since June 2007, the growth style has returned over 50% more than value style. Perhaps even more surprising, since December 2000 growth and value have earned nearly the same return. Defined as a pullback of 20% or more on the closing value of the S&P 500, the U.S. equity market has not hit a correction since the Global Financial Crisis. In 2018, both credit spreads and long-term interest rates increased making it difficult for bond managers to earn extra return. With the yield curve at its flattest levels since the summer of 2007 and credit spreads at fairly normal levels, securitized credit and floating rate assets are attractive alternatives. The most recent reading of the annualized U.S. GDP growth was 3.4%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 3.5%.
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