ASPI Issue Paper

ISSUE PAPER By David Sandalow July 2020 CHINA’S RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A STUDY IN CONTRASTS AND A POLICY AT A CROSSROADS ABOUT THE AUTHOR David Sandalow is the SUMMARY Inaugural Fellow at the Center on Global Energy China is the world’s leading emitter of heat-trapping gases, by far. In 2019, Chinese Policy at Columbia emissions were greater than emissions from the United States, the European Union, University. He founded and and Japan combined. There is no solution to climate change without China. directs the Center’s U.S.- China Program and is author China’s response to climate change is a study in contrasts. China leads the world in of the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy. He has solar power, wind power, and electric vehicle deployment, but also in coal consump- served in senior positions tion. The Chinese government has adopted some of the world’s most ambitious at the White House, State energy efficiency and forest conservation policies, but is financing a significant Department, and U.S. expansion of coal-fired power plant capacity at home and abroad. China’s leaders Department of Energy. are strongly committed to the Paris Agreement, but appear to attach less priority to ABOUT THE ASIA SOCIETY climate change than in years past. POLICY INSTITUTE This Issue Paper explores these contrasts. It does so at an important time in Chinese With a solution-oriented mandate, the Asia Society climate change policy. During the next 18 months, the Chinese government will Policy Institute (ASPI) tackles spend heavily on economic stimulus measures, release its 14th Five-Year Plan (for major policy challenges 2021–2025), and develop short- and long-term climate action plans (known as its confronting the Asia-Pacific “updated nationally-determined contributions” and “mid-century strategy” in the in security, prosperity, sustainability, and the terminology of the global U.N. climate process). Decisions by the Chinese govern- development of common ment will reverberate globally, including in the United States. A Biden administra- norms and values for the tion’s ambition in addressing climate change would be reinforced by ambition in region. China. This Issue Paper provides an up-to-date snapshot of China’s climate policies, drawing on data from 2019 and the beginning of 2020 (during the height of the COVID-19 economic lockdown), as well as recent remarks by Chinese leaders. It starts by exam- ining Chinese emissions of heat-trapping gases. It then discusses China’s principal climate policies, explaining the main tools the Chinese government uses to address climate change and related topics. The Issue Paper concludes with a discussion of processes that will shape Chinese climate change policy in the years ahead. The Asia Society Policy Institute and the Asia Society take no institutional position on matters of public policy and other issues addressed in the reports and publications they sponsor. All statements of fact and expressions of opinion contained in this paper are the sole responsibility of its author and may not reflect the views of the organization and its board, staff, and supporters. AsiaSociety.org/Policy-Institute | [email protected] | @AsiaPolicy ©2020 The Asia Society. All rights reserved. AsiaSociety.org/Policy-Ins titute | [email protected] | @AsiaPolicy ISSUE PAPER China’s share of EMISSIONS OF HEAT-TRAPPING GASES CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS global emissions has (CO2E) 2019 1751 TO 2019 been in the range 27% 14% of 24 percent—27 percent, trending 26% mostly upward, for 39% 13% 38% the past decade. 8% 6% 22% 3% 4% China India Japan China European Union United States Russia Rest of World United States Rest of World European Union Source: Climate Action Tracker 1 Sources: Our World in Data, BP BACKGROUND: However, annual emissions are not the only CHINA’S EMISSIONS OF way to measure contributions to climate HEAT-TRAPPING GASES* change. China’s cumulative emissions of In 2019, roughly 27 percent of the heat- CO2 during the past several centuries are trapping gases emitted globally came from 14 percent of the global total—roughly China—far more than from any other half those of the United States. (CO2 often nation. The United States was second, with stays in the atmosphere for centuries after 3 approximately 13 percent of global emis- being emitted.) sions. China’s share of global emissions has been in the range of 24 percent—27 China’s per capita CO2 emissions today are percent, trending mostly upward, for the also less than half those of the United States 4 2 (though more than Europe’s). * The principal heat-trapping past decade. gases—also commonly referred to as “greenhouse gases”— CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA 2019 are carbon dioxide (CO ), 2 18.0 methane (CH4), nitrous Sources: BP, United Nations oxide (NOx) and fluorinated 15.1 15.0 gases (such as HFCs). Of these, CO is by far the most 2 12.0 important, with roughly 76 percent of the total warming 8.9 9.0 impact of these gases globally. 6.9 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6.0 4.5 Working Group III, Climate 3.0 1.8 Change 2014: Mitigation of 1.0 Climate Change—Summary 0.0 for Policymakers (Fifth United States Japan China Europe (EU) India Africa Assessment Report) at p. 6. China’s Response to Climate Change: A Study in Contrasts and a Policy at a Crossroads Page 2 ISSUE PAPER In the first quarter CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS (GT) AND CHINA'S GDP of 2020, as much (TRILLION USD) 1985–2020 of China was Sources: BP, CICERO, Rhodium Group, IEA, World Bank 13.5 15 locked down due to Emissions COVID-19, China’s GDP CO2 emissions fell roughly 8 percent. 9.5 10 GT / TRILLION USD 5.5 5 0.0 0 198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 From 1985 through 2011, Chinese GDP that China would “tak[e] the driving seat † and CO2 emissions tracked closely. Starting in international cooperation to respond in 2011, GDP and CO2 emissions started to climate change.” There are no known to decouple, with GDP rising an average climate deniers in the Chinese leadership— of 7.5 percent per year and CO2 emissions and none with any observable influence on rising an average of 1.5 percent per year.5 policy.7 In the first quarter of 2020, as much of However, the priority Chinese leaders attach China was locked down due to COVID- to climate change appears to have receded 19, China’s CO2 emissions fell roughly in the past year. On several occasions, 8 percent. China’s GDP fell roughly 6.8 top leaders have called for development percent during the same period—the first of China’s coal resources (which could 6 quarterly drop in GDP in at least 40 years. significantly increase emissions) without mentioning low-carbon development or CHINA’S CLIMATE climate change. Examples include remarks POLICIES TODAY by Premier Li Keqiang at an October President Xi Jinping and other Chinese 2019 meeting of the National Energy leaders have often sent the message that Commission and the May 2020 National they are serious about addressing climate People’s Congress. The latter may be espe- change. In 2014, President Xi said, “address- cially notable, since Premier Li had referred ing climate change and implementation of to climate change in his remarks to the sustainable development is not what we are National People’s Congress in years past. † The two data sets have a asked to do, but what we really want to do Approvals of new coal plant construction correlation coefficient of .95. and will do well.” In 2017, President Xi said have increased in 2020, as discussed later.8 China’s Response to Climate Change: A Study in Contrasts and a Policy at a Crossroads Page 3 ISSUE PAPER In March 2020, the Observers have pointed to a number of China is on track to meet all these goals. Chinese government factors to explain this shift, including In fact, many analysts project that China slowing economic growth, a focus on is likely to achieve the first goal—to peak approved the energy security (in part due to the U.S.- CO2 emissions—well before 2030. The construction of 8 China trade war), and then COVID-19. second and third goals both appear to be GW of new coal- They have also noted that renewable energy, achievable based on current trends.‡ And fired power plant electric vehicles, and other low-carbon the fourth goal was met in 2019—11 years technologies continue to receive atten- ahead of schedule.11 capacity—more tion from Chinese leaders. Several policy These goals are pursued through a policy approvals than in all processes in the year ahead will provide infrastructure that includes Five-Year important signals about the priority China’s of 2019. Plans, regulations, guidance documents, leaders attach to low-carbon development and financial support. One common tool and climate change.9 is to allocate targets to provinces. China’s The sections below discuss Chinese policies National Development and Reform most directly related to climate change. Commission (NDRC) and National (For a more detailed discussion of these Bureau of Statistics report annually on 12 policies and others, see the Guide to Chinese progress toward these goals. Climate Policy.) Coal Climate Goals In 2019, China consumed more coal than The Chinese government has announced the rest of the world combined. More than four principal climate change goals: 20 percent of global CO2 emissions were from Chinese combustion of coal. China’s I. to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide coal policies are central to the global fight 13 emissions around 2030, making best against climate change.

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