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How Do Companies Envisage the Future? Functional Foresight Engineering Management in Production and Services Volume 9 • Issue 4 • 2017 received: 15 April 2017 accepted: 5 November 2017 How do companies envisage pages: 21-33 the future? Functional foresight approaches Anna Kononiuk, Anna Sacio-Szymańska, Judit Gáspár A B S T R A C T The main aim of the paper is to present the synthesis of the results of methodological analysis conducted on examples of foresight projects executed in chosen companies representing four companies type: small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), non- Corresponding author: profit-organization, international corporations and consulting companies as well as to posit functional approach for the implementation of foresight research within organizations. The empirical part of the study is based on the qualitative approach. Anna Kononiuk A multiple case study methodology is employed. The research objects are sixteen Bialystok University of Technology, companies experienced in foresight research. The first part of the paper gives Faculty of Engineering an overview of definitions of corporate foresight and the analysis of background that Management, Poland have influence on the conducting of foresight in large multinational companies on one e-mail: [email protected] side and SMEs on the other side. In the field of the theory of foresight research, the study demonstrates that there are different motivations for foresight introduction Anna Sacio-Szymańska as well as different organizational structure of teams conducting the activities Institute for Sustainable and the approaches that they use. In the practical perspective, the study and a detailed Technologies - NRI, Poland functional foresight approach proposed by authors could be valuable for SMEs who e-mail: [email protected] consider implementing foresight research into their strategic planning processes. K E Y W O R D S Judit Gáspár corporate foresight, strategic foresight, foresight in/for business, small and Corvinus University of Budapest, medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), functional approach Faculty of Business Administration, Institute of Business Economics, Department of Decision Sciences, DOI: 10.1515/emj-2017-0028 Hungary e-mail: [email protected] Introduction the same time maintaining a high-quality, coherent By and large, strategic foresight seems to be and functional forward view (Rohrbeck, 2010; an umbrella term for all the organizational activities Slaughter, 1995; Peter & Jarrat, 2015). Terms like embracing environmental scanning, the final choice “(industrial) futures research”, “business futures”, of strategic options and integrating capabilities “strategic foresight”, “strategic business intelligence”, enabling the firm to detect discontinuous change “strategic marketing intelligence” are also used to early enough to interpret the consequences for describe this field of practice (Ruff, 2015). As noted the company and formulate responses, while at by Iden et al. (2017), “the field looks immature, 21 Engineering Management in Production and Services Volume 9 • Issue 4 • 2017 dominated by explorative research using case studies 1. Literature review to construct arbitrary categories in order to organize and summarize empirical observations”. Neverthe- less, on the basis of the critical analysis of the existing Foresight executed by enterprises varies in name published works carried out by the authors of as much as it does in motives, organisation the article, one may identify emerging research and approach. Ruff (2004) breaks corporate foresight streams. Recently foresight is perceived more and into: long term technology foresight, technology more as a managerial competence in the constructing assessment, product impact assessment, innovation of the future of the organization, and not just a com- and technology analysis, technology monitoring, pile of methodologies through which organization strategic technology monitoring, strategic competi- may gain a broader vision of the future (Saprong et tion analysis, prospective economic analysis, strategic al., 2013; Rorbeck & Gemunden, 2011; Rohrbeck, market research, advanced marketing and trend 2010). According to the authors of the article, the research, future oriented organisational research openess to foresight managerial competence is indis- and global developments and trend monitoring. In pensable for foresight capacity building within orga- the recently published works on foresight in nization. As noted by Fidler (2011, pp. 540-541), the enterprises, there function notions such as corpo- from managerial perception, foresight could be clas- rate foresight (Rohrbeck, 2010), strategic foresight sified as “search behavior” encompassing such activi- (Saprong et al., 2013; Alsan, 2008) and business fore- ties as information gathering and the due-diligence sight (Jarvis, 2012). While these many different names processes undertaken in anticipation of a major for foresight no doubt indicate slight differences in move. Therefore, the reframing of an organization’s approach, organisation and methodology, the vary- essential understanding of a situation seems to be ing terms are not used with enough consistency to an explicit mandate for managers. discern any pattern. Therefore, the authors of In order to support companies in the process of the paper will use the notions of corporate and busi- building and consistent reconfiguration of their stra- ness foresight interchangeably. tegic resources (especially in the face of continuous Corporate foresight relates to projects run by changes), which determine the competitive advan- individual companies, groups of companies, indus- tage, a methodological analysis has been conducted try-wide associations, etc. within the private sector of examples of foresight projects executed in chosen (JRC-IPTS, 2008). Daheim and Uerz (2006, p. 12) companies. The authors of the article have posed claim that the key to foresight is making sense of the research problem in the form of three research often contradictory information, drawing conclu- questions, namely: sions on their impact, dealing with diverging opin- • What is the motivation for foresight introduction ions, subjectivity and uncertainty, depicting future in the companies? options, and, most importantly: deciding on actions • What is the manner of organizing foresight to take. Will (2006, p. 4) claims that corporate fore- research in the companies? sight is a process of communication to build a mid- • What approach of foresight research is taken in term to long-term vision of future markets, customer the investigated companies? needs and societal challenges supporting the poten- Such organization of research allowed for identi- tial, competitiveness and innovation capability of fication of different motivations for foresight research a company. Palmer and Kaplan (2007, pp. 13-15) characterization of specific models and concepts of specify corporate foresight as a thorough understand- foresight at the level of institutions; it also confirmed ing of the emerging trends, drivers, inhibitors, poten- the presence of a need to propose a functional corpo- tial dislocations, and emerging opportunities within rate foresight approach that should be able to provide a market, industry or set of converging markets outcomes that fit the needs of innovatively oriented and industries. They add that organizations that pos- SMEs. The selection of the companies for the case sess foresight are better positioned to establish studies as well as the scope of the research was limited a strategy that leverages future trends – and even by the data accessibility. helps define them – to create a leadership position in the marketplace. They claim that gaining and apply- ing foresight is a continuous activity that requires an organization to engage in processes that define an explicit linkage between the evolving external 22 Engineering Management in Production and Services Volume 9 • Issue 4 • 2017 environment, potential growth opportunities, creating change within the organisation, often using and business strategies/tactics as well as create a broad focus and using a variety of external sources an ongoing capability for tracking and quickly for information, and foresight focused internally used responding to positive or potentially detrimental mainly for information gathering. Cuhls and John- changes in the competitive business environment. ston plot different approaches along a continuum According to Rohrbeck (2010, p. 11) organizational between these two extremes, including the three foresight is an ability that includes any structural or main approaches identified by Becker the Collecting cultural element that enables the company to detect Post, the Observatory and the Think Tank. The Col- continuous change early, interpret the consequences lecting Post is mainly concerned with providing for the company and formulate effective responses to background information for the decision-making ensure the long term survival and success of processes of the company and it is present in compa- the company. Whereas Vecchiato, Roveda (2010) use nies with low levels of foresight activity The Observa- strategic foresight deliberately to emphasize the tight tory is an autonomous foresight unit with a fulltime relationship between foresight and strategy formula- staff and a budget of its own. Its particular trait is that tion. This interrelation had already been underlined is fulfils a highly specialised and rather singular pur- by Slaughter (1995). The general definition that he pose
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