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Merchandise Trade Territorial and Commodity Structure Development: the Analysis of Selected Factors Influencing Libyan Merchandise Trade Performance

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Merchandise Trade Territorial and Commodity Structure Development: the Analysis of Selected Factors Influencing Libyan Merchandise Trade Performance Merchandise Trade Territorial and Commodity Structure Development: The Analysis of Selected Factors Influencing Libyan Merchandise Trade Performance (Case of Study Libya During 1999 – 2009) PhD Dissertation Author: Bashir .A .M. Elshibani Supervisor: Doc. Ing. Lubos Smutka, Ph.D May, 2013. I ABSTRACT For a long period of time, foreign trade has been an important aspect of globalisation and international trade as goods and services exported and imported between different countries across the world continue to contribute significant proportions of world economies as well as development of both developed and developing countries. However, foreign trade is influenced by various variables that determine the differences in volumes, composition and geographical distribution in foreign trade between countries. However, these variables influence foreign trade differently which necessitates the need for the policy makers to have succinct understanding of the dynamics of these variables imminent. Hence this is the focus of this thesis because its findings are essential in ensuring that the provided information can enable explicit understanding of foreign trade in Libya as well as facilitating formulation of good foreign trade policies in the country. Thus, this thesis investigates whether there is significant relationship in Libya between foreign trade, exports and imports (dependent variables) and oil prices, FDI, GDP, Exchange Rates as well as Tariff Rates (independent variables). The thesis has adopted a "simple linear regression model". Such a model is applied primarily to investigate the form of the relationships that exist among the dependent variable and the independent variables as well as the direction and strength of the relationships present between the dependent variable and the independent variables through correlation coefficients. Correlation and regression analyses have also been adopted in this thesis to facilitate determination of relationships between dependent variables (foreign trade, exports and imports) and independent variables (oil price, tariff, exchange rate, GDP and FDI). The results suggest that there are significant relationships between foreign trade and oil price, tariff and exchange rate in Libya while the relationships between foreign trade and GDP and FDI are not significant. However, when the relationships between exports and independent variables are considered, the relationships between exports and oil price, tariff and exchange rate in Libya are significant while the relationships between foreign trade and GDP and FDI are not significant. Furthermore, when the relationships between imports and independent variables are considered, it was determined that the relationships are not significant except for the relationship between imports and exchange rate. II TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION……………………………………………….1 1. Introduction………………………………………….......………………………………...1 1.1. Thesis Objectives ………………...........……………………………………………..4 1.2. Significance of the study……………………………………………………………..7 1.3. Problem statement……………………………………………………………………7 1.4. Research questions…………………………………………………………………...8 1.5. Research hypotheses…………………………………………………………………8 1.6. Methods and methodology…………………………………………………………..10 1.7. Study limitations……………………………………………………………………..14 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND OVERVIEW OF FOREIGN TRADE……...15 2.1 Foreign trade………...........................…………...………………………………………15 2.2. Importance of foreign trade……………………………………………………………...18 2.3. The policy of foreign trade……...........………….………………………………………21 2.4. Risks of foreign trade……………………………………………………………………24 2.5. Determinant of foreign trade……………………………………………………………25 2.6. The World Trade Organization (WTO)…………………………………………………26 2.7. The role of WTO in developing countries………………………………………………28 CHAPTER 3: SECTORS OF LIBYAN ECONOMY AND IMPACT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)……………………………………………………………..35 3.1. Stages of the evolution of the economy of Libya………………………………………..50 3.1.1. The economy of Libya before oil………………………………………………….35 3.1.2. The economy of Libya after oil……………………………………………………36 3.1.3. Country strong points……………………………………………………………...40 3.1.4. Country weak points……………………………………………………………….41 3.2. Sectors of Libyan economy……………………………………………………………...43 III 3.2.1. Agriculture sector……………………………………………………………...43 3.2.2. The oil and gas sector………………………………………………………….47 3.2.3. Industry sector…………………………………………………………………52 3.2.4. The services and tourism sector……………………………………………….55 CHAPTER 4: THE BASIC FEATURES OF THE LIBYAN FOREIGN TRADE………...58 4.1. Foreign trade in Libya……………………………………………………………...58 4.2. The structure of exports and imports in Libya……………………………………..61 4.3. Libyan foreign trade and activities with other countries across the world……………...70 CHAPTER 5: BACKGROUND OF FOREIGN TRADE VARIABLES AND THE ANALYSIS OF LIBYAN FOREIGN TRADE TERRITORIAL AND COMMODITY STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT……………………………………………………….…79 5.1. Literature review on foreign trade variables…………………………………………….79 5.2. Libyan Foreign Trade Analysis………………………………………………………….84 5.3. Theoretical Model…………………………………………………………..…………...92 5.4. Hypotheses………………………………………………………………………..……..95 CHAPTER 6: CASE STUDY DATA AND DATA ANALYSIS…………………………97 6.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….97 6.2. Case study data…………………………………………………………………………97 6.3. Analysis of results……………………………………………………………….……...99 6.3.1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………..99 6.3.2. Analysis of the Relationships between Foreign Trade and Independent variables………………………………………………………………………………….….99 6.3.3. Analysis of the Relationships between Exports and Independent variables…………115 6.3.4. Analysis of the Relationships between Imports and Independent variables…………130 CHAPTER 7: DISCUSSION OF THE RESULTS…………………………………………145 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS…………………………..148 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………………...151 IV LIST OF FIGURES Figure1: Illustration of static gains through indifference curves…………………………….19 Figure 2: Average real GDP Growth Rate in Libya compared to other African countries (2003-2006)…………………………………………………………………………………..33 Figure 3: The value of agricultural land in Libya between 1996 and 2009………………….46 Figure 4: The price of crude oil during the economic embargo in Libya……………………49 Figure 5: A graph of Libya’s natural gas production (in cubic million meters)……...…….. 51 Figure 6: Libya’s exports between 2002 and 2012 (in million LYD)……………………….63 Figure 7: Libya’s imports between 2002 and 2012 (in million LYD)……………………….64 Figure 8: Libya’s trade flows and balance of trade (in million LYD)……………………….67 Figure 9: Commodity composition of Libyan exports (% of total commodity exports)……86 Figure 10: Geographical distribution of Libyan exports (% of total commodity exports)….88 Figure 11: Commodity composition of Libyan imports (% of total commodity imports)….89 Figure 12: Geographical distribution of Libyan imports (% of total commodity imports)….91 Figure 13: Scatterplot between Oil Prices and Foreign Trade …..........…………………….99 Figure 14: Scatterplot between Tariff Rates and Foreign Trade ………………...………...103 Figure 15: Scatterplot between Exchange Rate and Foreign Trade …………....………….106 Figure 16: Scatterplot between GDP and Foreign Trade ………………………...…..…….109 Figure 17: Scatterplot between Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Trade ....................112 Figure 18: Scatterplot between Oil Prices and Exports …………………………........……116 Figure 19: Scatterplot between Tariff and Exports …………………………………...........119 Figure 20: Scatterplot between Exchange Rate and Exports ……………………..….…….121 Figure 21: Scatterplot between Exports and GDP……………………………………….….124 Figure 22: Scatterplot between Exports and Foreign Direct Investment ………………......127 Figure 23: Scatterplot between Imports and Oil Prices ……………………………………130 Figure 24: Scatterplot between Imports and Tariff Rates …………………………..……...133 V Figure 25: Scatterplot between Imports and Exchange Rate ……...….…………………..136 Figure 26: Scatterplot between Imports and GDP…………………………………………..139 Figure 28: Scatterplot between Imports and Foreign Direct Investment ……...…………...142 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Libya’s total economically active population and population economically active in agriculture in 2004…………………………………………………………………………...44 Table 2: The value of agricultural land in Libya between 1996 and 2009…………………..45 Table 3: Libya’s natural gas production (in cubic million meters)…………………………..50 Table 4: Oil and gas statics in Libya…………………………………………………………51 Table 5: Libya’s mining industry production (in thousand metric tons)……………………..51 Table 6: Exports and Imports (in $ million)…………………………….................................62 Table 7: Libya’s balance of trade (in $ million)……………………………………………...66 Table 8: Averages of Libyan Foreign Trade Indicators in (in US$ million)………...………85 Table 9: Commodity composition of Libyan exports (as % of total commodity exports).....86 Table 10: Geographical distribution of Libyan exports as % of total commodity export)......87 Table 11: Commodity composition of Libyan imports (as % of total commodity imports)…89 Table 12: Geographical distribution of Libyan imports (as % of total commodity imports)..90 Table 13: The Study data .....................................................................................................98 The Relationship between Oil Prices and Foreign Trade Table 28: Correlations………………………………………………………………………100 Table 29: Variables Entered/Removedb…………………………………………………….100 Table 30: Model Summaryb…………………………………………………………….......101
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