Vegetation types at risk from Sahara mustard invasion: Using Maxent to inform early detection and conservation targets with climate change Cal-IPC Symposium, October 2019 Lynn Sweet, PhD University of California, Riverside
CCB.UCR.EDU Or… Where are those weeds going?
Cal-IPC Symposium, October 2019 Lynn Sweet, PhD Melanie Davis, Scott Heacox and Cameron Barrows University of California, Riverside
CCB.UCR.EDU Climate change predictions vary based on emissions scenarios
Source: Hopkins, Francesca. (University of California, Riverside). 2018. Inland Deserts Summary Report. California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Publication number: SUM-CCCA4-2018-008. Free and available online. www.climateassessment.ca.gov/regions/ 1951-1980 Maximum summer temperature °C
Legend JOTR Park Boundary
Model Area Boundary tmx.asc Value High : 46
Low : 16
rds_pub2copy Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye,
0 4.75 9.5 19 28.5 38 1:495,680 ± Kilometers 1981-2010 Maximum summer temperature °C
Legend JOTR Park Boundary
Model Area Boundary tmx.asc Value High : 46
Low : 16
rds_pub2copy Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye,
0 4.75 9.5 19 28.5 38 1:495,680 ± Kilometers 2070-2099 MIROC45 Modeled maximum summer temperature °C
Legend JOTR Park Boundary
Model Area Boundary tmx.asc Value High : 46
Low : 16
rds_pub2copy Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, GeoEye,
0 4.75 9.5 19 28.5 38 1:495,680 ± Kilometers Sonoran/Colorado Desert Vegetation
Hotter, drier Elevations -100’ – 3,000’ Mojave Desert Vegetation Transverse Range / “Coastal” Vegetation Vegetation Type Mapping/NVCS
• National Vegetation Classification Hierarchy (NVCS; Federal Geographic Data Committee 2008) • DFG and CNPS Vegetation Classification and Mapping Program • Manual of California Vegetation (MCV) Second Edition (Sawyer, Keeler-Wolf and Evens, 2009) • Alliance: Dominant perennial cover:
“defined by plant species composition, and reflects the effects of local climate, soil, water, disturbance, and other environmental factors” (MCV Online) Species Distribution Modeling: Which vegetation types will be impacted? Sand Field Communities in the Coachella Valley
Invasibility Patterns
• Mesic environments more invasible than extremes BUT…. • Right invader may conquer “invasion resistant” communities. • E.g. Sahara mustard in the desert
Rejmánek, M., Richardson, D.M. and Pyšek, P., 2005. Plant invasions and invasibility of plant communities. Vegetation Ecology Invasibility Patterns
• Mesic environments maybe more invasible than extremes BUT…. • Right invader may conquer “invasion resistant” communities. • E.g. Sahara mustard in the desert
• Community structure matters, including shade, water availability and competition • Disturbance, resource inputs, etc. facilitate invasion on the whole Model Boundary
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, Brassica tournefortii points Model Boundary
Source: Esri, DigitalGlobe, Brassica tournefortii points Model Boundary rugd18xd.asc Value High : 0.069712
Low : 0 Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, 12 Regional Vegetation Maps
Lynn Sweet, Unpublished data Current
Brassica_tournefortii.asc Value High : 0.91
Low : 0 Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Current
Brassica_tournefortii.asc Value High : 0.91
Low : 0 Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, Current
Coachella Valley Region Vegetation MEAN 0.01 - 0.11 0.12 - 0.20 0.21 - 0.28 0.29 - 0.41 0.42 - 0.78
Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Current MEAN Habitat Suitability Value
Baccharis salicifolia Baccharis emoryi Atriplex polycarpa Atriplex lentiformis Atriplex hymenelytra Atriplex canescens--Atriplex polycarpa Atriplex canescens Artemisia tridentata - Eriogonum wrightii Artemisia tridentata - Eriogonum fasciculatum Artemisia tridentata Arid West freshwater emergent marsh Arctostaphylos pringlei ssp. drupaceaΓÇôArctostaphylos pungens Arctostaphylos glauca - Adenostoma fasciculatum - Rhus ovata Arctostaphylos glauca - Adenostoma fasciculatum Arctostaphylos glauca Arctostaphylos glandulosaΓÇôAdenostoma fasciculatum Arctostaphylos glandulosa Arctostaphylos (crustacea, tomentosa) Ambrosia salsolaΓÇôEriogonum fasciculatum Ambrosia salsola - Bebbia juncea Ambrosia salsola Ambrosia dumosa- Acamptopappus sphaerocephalus Ambrosia dumosa Alnus rhombifolia Allenrolfea occidentalis Agave deserti-Ambroia salsola (wash and terrace) Agave deserti Adenostoma sparsifolium Lynn Sweet, Adenostoma fasciculatum - Salvia mellifera Unpublished data Adenostoma fasciculatum - Eriogonum fasciculatum Adenostoma fasciculatum Acacia greggii Abies concolor--Pinus lambertiana
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 Future
Brassica_tournefortii_2070-2099MIROC45 Value High : 0.947534
Low : 0.000252635 Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Future
Coachella Valley Region Vegetation MEAN 0.02 - 0.11 0.12 - 0.20 0.21 - 0.28 0.29 - 0.41 0.42 - 0.78
Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Future Vs. Current Points
Coachella Valley Region Vegetation MEAN 0.02 - 0.11 0.12 - 0.20 0.21 - 0.28 0.29 - 0.41 0.42 - 0.78
Lynn Sweet,
Source: Esri, Unpublished data DigitalGlobe, 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Difference Future Vitis arizonica - Vitis girdiana Mojavean-Sonoran Desert Scrub Eriodictyon (crassifolium, trichocalyx) Southwestern North American riparian evergreen and deciduous woodland Platanus racemosa Salix laevigata Quercus agrifolia / chaparral Eriogonum fasciculatum - Cylindropuntia californica Arid West freshwater emergent marsh Quercus berberidifolia - Adenostoma fasciculatum Quercus agrifolia Yucca schidigera- Larrea tridentata Viguiera parishii-Agave deserti Prunus fremontii Arctostaphylos glauca Prosopis glandulosa / Rhus ovata (upper desert spring) Artemisia tridentata - Eriogonum wrightii Quercus berberidifolia-Cercocarpus montanus California Chaparral Arctostaphylos glandulosa-Adenostoma fasciculatum Viguiera parishii-Eriogonum fasciculatum Arctostaphylos glandulosa Salvia apiana Quercus wislizeni shrub Acacia greggii Quercus berberidifolia Shrubland Alliance Quercus chrysolepis Shrubland Alliance Coleogyne ramosissima Abies concolor--Pinus lambertiana Larrea tridentata-Encelia farinosa Western North American Freshwater Marsh Geraea canescens--Chorizanthe rigida Desert Pavement Salix exigua Lynn Sweet, North American warm desert bedrock cliff and outcrop Ambrosia salsola - Bebbia juncea Unpublished data Schoenoplectus americanus Herbaceous Alliance Ambrosia dumosa- Acamptopappus sphaerocephalus Larrea tridentat- Atriplex polycarpa Lower bajada and fan Mojavean-Sonoran desert scrub -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 Top Types Predicted to Show Reduction
• Lower bajada and fan Mojavean-Sonoran desert scrub (-0.64) • Agave deserti (-0.56) S • Dicoria canescens--Oenothera deltoides Sparsely Vegetated Active Dune (-0.56) S • Washingtonia filifera- Platanus racemosa / Salix spp (-0.55) S • Larrea tridentata- Atriplex polycarpa (-0.41) S • Atriplex hymenelytra (-0.41) S • Psorothamnus schottii (-0.40) S • Atriplex canescens--Atriplex polycarpa (-0.39) S Top Types Predicted to Show Gain
• Vitis arizonica - Vitis girdiana (+0.47) C • Baccharis emoryi (+0.46) C • Salix gooddingii (+0.44) C • Eriogonum fasciculatum - Simmondsia chinensis - Cylindropuntia californica (+0.44) T • Adenostoma fasciculatum - Salvia mellifera (+0.41) C • Ericameria palmeri (+0.41) C • Mojavean-Sonoran Desert Scrub (+0.40) M • Heteromeles arbutifolia - Quercus berberidifolia - Cercocarpus montanus - Fraxinus dipetala (+0.40) C • Arctostaphylos glauca - Adenostoma fasciculatum - Rhus ovata(+0.37) C • Eriodictyon (crassifolium, trichocalyx) (+0.37) C Top Less-Common Types Predicted to Show Gain • Vitis arizonica - Vitis girdiana (+0.47) C • Eriogonum fasciculatum - Simmondsia chinensis - Cylindropuntia californica (+0.44) C • Ericameria palmeri (+0.41) C • Heteromeles arbutifolia - Quercus berberidifolia - Cercocarpus montanus - Fraxinus dipetala (+0.40) C • Arctostaphylos glauca - Adenostoma fasciculatum - Rhus ovata (+0.37) C • Salvia mellifera (+0.35) C Top Common Types Predicted to Show Reduction • Dicoria canescens--Oenothera deltoides Sparsely Vegetated Active Dune Provisional Alliance (-0.56) S
• Larrea tridentata- Atriplex polycarpa (-0.41) S
• Psorothamnus schottii Shrubland Provisional Alliance (-0.40) S Expected General Trend Across Vegetation Types by Bioregion
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 Conclusions • Higher temperatures and variation in rainfall → changes in species distributions
• Sahara mustard possible shift coast-ward
• Invasive annual species may disperse into new vegetation types
• Invasibility and new interactions may occur
• Conservation and restoration priorities should incorporate future species distributions of both existing invasive species and future invaders Questions?