CHAPTER 3. DRAFT PICK VALUE 52

Figure 3.1 is a plot of our results.

Figure 3.1: Draft Pick Value Chart

Using this chart is fairly straightforward. You find the value of each draft pick involved in the trade and add up the values on each side of the trade. Going back to the original question of this chapter, we find that the 2nd overall pick has a value of 860. So, in order to make a fair o↵er to trade for the 2nd overall pick, you need to make sure the picks you o↵er in return add up to something close to 860.

Reading numbers o↵of the plot is a bit dicult, so we’ve provided a table of data to assist you (see Table 3.2). Keep in mind that this is not a perfect model, but more of a guide to help you understand trade value of draft picks.5 You might also wonder why 12th round picks have virtually no value in this model. The answer is because 12th round pick players in fantasy hockey are easily replaceable on the waiver wire.

5We used a standard 12-team default league in Yahoo as our guide in these simulations. A league with more scoring categories might see a more severe slope to their plot. A league with more physical categories would see a less severe slope. CHAPTER 5. ANALYSIS OF THE NHL SCHEDULE 64

Table 5.3: NHL Bye Weeks 2016-2017 Team Days O↵Bye Week ANA 5 2017-02-26 - 2017-03-02 ARI 6 2017-01-08 - 2017-01-12 BOS 6 2017-02-13 - 2017-02-18 BUF 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 CAR 5 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-16 CBJ 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 CGY 5 2017-02-08 - 2017-02-12 CHI 6 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-17 COL 5 2017-01-07 - 2017-01-11 DAL 5 2017-02-19 - 2017-02-23 DET 6 2017-02-22 - 2017-02-27 EDM 5 2017-02-06 - 2017-02-10 FLA 5 2017-02-04 - 2017-02-08 LOS 6 2017-02-10 - 2017-02-15 Figure 5.2: NHL Schedule by Day of the Week MIN 5 2017-02-22 - 2017-02-26 MTL 5 2017-02-13 - 2017-02-17 NJD 5 2017-02-07 - 2017-02-11 The bye week will consist of at least five consecutive NSH 5 2017-02-13 - 2017-02-17 days in which the players will neither practice nor NYI 5 2017-01-01 - 2017-01-05 play hockey. The bye week must be independent from NYR 5 2017-01-08 - 2017-01-12 the All-Star break dates. OTT 5 2017-01-02 - 2017-01-06 PHI 5 2017-01-16 - 2017-01-20 These bye weeks could have a significant impact on PIT 7 2017-01-01 - 2017-01-07 head-to-head match-ups in fantasy hockey. We’ve SJS 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 compiled all of these bye weeks for you in Table 5.3 STL 5 2017-02-21 - 2017-02-25 so that you can prepare accordingly. TBL 6 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-17 TOR 5 2017-01-08 - 2017-01-12 The largest impact may be felt in leagues that re- VAN 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 quire a minimum number of goalie starts each week. WSH 6 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-17 Imagine owning Jake Allen and Martin Jones. In this WPG 6 2017-02-22 - 2017-02-27 scenario, you’d get zero goalie starts from February 20 - February 24. But skaters will feel the impact as well. For example, does not play a single game in the first seven days of January.6 5.5 Rested vs. Tired Games While these bye weeks will be important to you dur- Played ing the , we do not recommend that you craft a draft strategy that incorporates these bye weeks. All of the bye weeks occur long before any of the fantasy One other important method for analyzing the NHL hockey playo↵s begin. schedule is determining which teams are playing rested and which teams are playing tired. The cri- terion for determining whether a team is rested or 6Of course this extends to players like , Kris tired is simple: find out if the team played hockey Letang, , etc. yesterday. CHAPTER 5. ANALYSIS OF THE NHL SCHEDULE 66

Figure 5.3: Rested & Tired Games Played in the NHL CHAPTER 6. KEY INJURIES & ISSUES 69

Matt Beleskey -

Injury: Hand

2016-05-03: Had hand surgery on April 14 and is expected to need six weeks for recovery. a

ahttps://twitter.com/nhlbruins/status/727558618158002176

Jamie Benn - Stars Injury: Core

2016-07-15: Underwent surgery to repair a core muscle injury and is expected to need six weeks for recovery. a

2016-08-23: Dropped out of the . GM says Benn will be at 100% to start the season. b ahttps://twitter.com/starsinsideedge/status/753967360885727232 bhttps://twitter.com/DallasStars/status/768121570002817024

Nick Bjugstad -

Injury: Hand

2016-10-06: Will miss four weeks due to a broken hand. a ahttps://twitter.com/GeorgeRichards/status/784041715892101120

Ryan Callahan -

Injury: Hip

2016-06-21: Will miss five months following hip surgery.a

2016-09-07: Skated for the first time since surgery. He is expecting a mid-November return.b

ahttps://twitter.com/tblightning/status/745361771783819264 bhttps://twitter.com/TBTimes_JSmith/status/773528898449641472 CHAPTER 11. SHOOTING PERCENTAGE AS A TOOL 106

11.2 Using SH% in Your 2016- this list manages to be on a line with improved line- mates in 2016-2017, then his expected drop might be 2017 Fantasy Draft slightly muted by this minor uptick. This is precisely the situation we had in mind when we mentioned We will now use the techniques described above to early on in the draft guide that we prefer a blend of project which NHL players are most likely to see a mathematics complemented by a situational aware- decline in their 2016-2017 SH% (and very likely expe- ness for both individual players and teams. rience a corresponding decline in overall scoring). For a powerful 1-2 punch, combine the above list with Note that we chose a cuto↵requiring the players to the fact that most NHL players experience a natural have taken at least 150 SOG during the 2015-2016 decline in their SH% after the age of 27.2 Your con- season. densed list would include names such as: Zack Smith, It is important to make the distinction here between , Shane Doan, , Matt regression and having a bad season. We are not pro- Cullen, Duncan Keith, Jaromir Jagr, Mikko Koivu, jecting the players in the table below to necessarily Mats Zuccarello, Nicklas Backstrom, and Shea We- have bad seasons. We are not necessarily telling you ber. to avoid particular players on this list. We are simply History tells us that only 1 or 2 players from the projecting the players below to see significant reduc- table above will buck the trend of dropping in goal tions in their shooting percentages that fall more in production. Do you really like your odds (0%-10%) line with their career averages. of picking that specific player to draft?

Table 11.3: Likely Regression Candidates Player Career 2015-2016 11.3 Case Studies in Shooting Zack Smith 10.2 20.7 Percentage Jannik Hansen 11.6 18.8 Shane Doan 10.4 16.5 Cody Ceci 5.5 8.6 11.3.1 Claude Giroux: 2013-2014 Brent Seabrook 5.6 7.4 Matt Cullen 9.4 13.6 Claude Giroux remained goalless through the first Duncan Keith 4.9 6.9 15 games of the 2013-2014 NHL season. By mid- J.T. Miller 11.7 16.3 November, he had scored only one goal on 46 shots 12.0 16.5 for a 2.2% shooting percentage. Frustrated by his Jaromir Jagr 13.8 18.9 performance (and that of the entire Flyers’ team), Mikko Koivu 8.9 12.1 many fantasy hockey managers gave up on Giroux Mats Zuccarello 11.8 15.7 and either dropped him or traded him for weak re- Nicklas Backstrom 11.7 15.5 turns. 8.1 10.6 3 14.7 19.0 At the time, Giroux was a career 12.1% shooter. Us- ing our results from the coin flip discussions earlier in this kit, we know that 68% of the time his season-long There is evidence that elite players can boost the shooting percentage should fall within 10% - 14%. 1 SH% of their linemates by about 1%. If a forward on 2http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/4/15/1418423/ shooting-percentage-vs-age 1http://goo.gl/Z1ykQs 3His current career average is 11.0% CHAPTER 13. ASSISTS: THEORY 114

Figure 13.2: Drop in Production of Secondary Assists

13.1, it’s not nearly as interesting as it looks.7 The -100%? Because once you lose 100% of something, reason this part of the graph looks suspicious is the you haven’t got anything else to lose. following: players who earn very few secondary as- sists in one season (think 1-2 secondary assists) will Many of the players who post more than 0.3 sec- often see large changes in their totals (positive or ondary assists per game in one season will see drops negative). Why? Because if you only have one or as large as 50% in the following season.8 This is ex- two of a quantity to begin with, then moving up or actly what happened to Duncan Keith in 2014-2015. down by one or two results in a very large percentage His secondary assists per game dropped from 0.44 in change (two is 100% growth over one, zero is -100% 2013-2014 (second best of all skaters in the NHL) to growth over one). It’s as simple as that. But wait, only 0.20 in 2014-2015 (putting him outside the top you protest! Why doesn’t the graph ever go below 8Not all of the players will experience drops that big, but 7Actually, it is kind of interesting, it’s just not very useful Figure 13.1 clearly shows that many of the players see drops for fantasy hockey managers. on the order of 25% to 50%. CHAPTER 20. THE REPEATABILITY OF FANTASY HOCKEY STATS - PART II 141

Figure 20.2: Year-to-Year Blocked Shots Data

The R2 value for blocked shots has been determined 20.4 Basic Scoring Categories to be 0.86 and is one of the strongest correlations of any stat in fantasy hockey. If you’re drafting players based on their ability to blocked shots, you can do so with great confidence. 20.4.1 Goals

Notice how the majority of the data points are bunched up along a straight line flowing from the lower-left hand side to the upper-right hand side. Now we’ll get into some of the more common scoring This tight bunching of the data (almost forming a categories used in fantasy hockey. The results for straight line) will be seen in most data sets with a goals are shown in Figure 20.3. While there is a solid high R2 value. relationship between past goals and future goals, our draft kit does not use past goals to predict future goals (more on this later!). CHAPTER 34. LEGEND FOR DRAFT KIT SPREADSHEETS 202

Table 34.1: Legend for Skaters Spreadsheet Abbreviation Definition NHLPOS Player’s position as defined by the ocial NHL website. YPOS Player’s position as defined by the ocial Yahoo fantasy hockey website. ADP Yahoo Average Draft Position. AUC Yahoo Average Auction Value. OWN Yahoo Percentage of all leagues in which player was drafted. EADP ESPN Average Draft Position. EAUC ESPN Average Auction Value. EOWN ESPN Percentage of all leagues in which player was drafted. DAY1AGE Player’s age on October 12, 2016. CSHPCT Career shooting percentage. LYSHPCT Last year’s shooting percentage. AEVTOI 2015-2016 Average even-strength time on ice. APKTOI 2015-2016 Average kill time on ice. APPTOI 2015-2016 Average power play time on ice. ATOI 2015-2016 Average time on ice. SHFG 2015-2016 Shifts per game. CG Career average goals expressed as a rate per 82 games played. CA Career average assists expressed as a rate per 82 games played. CPTS Career average points expressed as a rate per 82 games played. CSOG Career average shots on goal expressed as a rate per 82 games played.

3YGP Three-year average games played expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YG Three-year average goals expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YA Three-year average assists expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YPTS Three-year average points expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YH Three-year average hits expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YBS Three-year average blocked shots expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YFOW Three-year average face-o↵wins expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YSHG Three-year average shorthanded goals expressed as a rate per 82 games played. 3YSHA Three-year average shorthanded assists expressed as a rate per 82 games played.

P G Projected goals for the 2016-2017 season. P A Projected assists for the 2016-2017 season. P PTS Projected points for the 2016-2017 season. P H Projected hits for the 2016-2017 season. P BS Projected blocked shots for the 2016-2017 season. P FOW Projected face-o↵wins for the 2016-2017 season. P PIM Projected penalty minutes for the 2016-2017 season. P PPG Projected power play goal for the 2016-2017 season. P PPA Projected power play assists for the 2016-2017 season. P PPP Projected power play points for the 2016-2017 season. P AT OI Projected average time on ice for the 2016-2017 season. PR Performance Rating. An overall score assigned to assess the player’s worth. CHAPTER 34. LEGEND FOR DRAFT KIT SPREADSHEETS 203

34.2 The Goalies Spreadsheet

Table 34.2: Legend for Goalies Spreadsheet Abbreviation Definition ADP Yahoo Average Draft Position. AUC Yahoo Average Auction Value. OWN Yahoo Percentage of all leagues in which player was drafted. EADP ESPN Average Draft Position. EAUC ESPN Average Auction Value. EOWN ESPN Percentage of all leagues in which player was drafted. DAY1AGE Player’s age on October 12, 2016. EVSVPCT 2015-2016 even-strength save percentage. PKSVPCT 2015-2016 penalty kill save percentage. PPSVPCT 2015-2016 power play save percentage. CGP Career games played. CW Career wins. CGAA Career goals against average. CSVPCT Career save percentage. CSHO Career shutouts.

3YGS Three-year games started total. 3YW Three-year wins total. 3YSV Three-year saves total. 3YGAA Three-year goals against average. 3YSVPCT Three-year save percentage. 3YEVSVPCT Three-year even-strength save percentage. 3YPKSVPCT Three-year penalty kill save percentage. 3YSHO Three-year shutouts total. 3YTOI Three-year minutes played total.

P GS Projected starts for the 2016-2017 season. P W Projected wins for the 2016-2017 season. P L Projected regulation losses for the 2016-2017 season. P OTL Projected losses for the 2016-2017 season. P SA Projected shots against for the 2016-2017 season. P SV Projected saves for the 2016-2017 season. P GA Projected goals against for the 2016-2017 season. P GAA Projected goals against average for the 2016-2017 season. P SV PCT Projected save percentage for the 2016-2017 season. P SHO Projected shutouts for the 2016-2017 season. CHAPTER 39. BOSTON BRUINS 228 be considered minimal.

39.5 Schedule Details

The Boston Bruins have 14 back-to-back sets this season. In Figure 39.1, we’ve broken down their 2016-2017 schedule by days of the week.

Figure 39.1: Boston Bruins Schedule By Day CHAPTER 39. BOSTON BRUINS 229

39.6 Player Movement

Recent Acquisitions Player Position Former Team C STL John-Michael Liles D CAR Riley Nash C CAR Anton Khudobin G ANA

2015-2016 Players Who Left Player Position New Team Brett Connolly R WSH Chris Kelly C OTT Dennis Seidenberg D UFA Landon Ferraro C STL R CAR R VAN Matt Irwin D NSH Max Talbot C UFA Zach Trotman D LAK Jonas Gustavsson G EDM

39.7 Projected Lineup

Once the 2016-2017 season begins, you can find all of the detailed line combinations for the Boston Bruins here: http://leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/boston-bruins/

Here is a preview of what the lines might look like in Boston this season:

Projected Forwards Left Wing Center Right Wing David Backes David Krejci David Pastrnak Dominic Moore Seth Grith Jimmy Hayes Riley Nash Noel Acciari CHAPTER 39. BOSTON BRUINS 232

Figure 39.2: Boston Bruins Player Usage Chart

Overtime Units Player 1 Player 2 Player 3 Frequency (%) PATRICE BERGERON BRAD MARCHAND 22 DAVID KREJCI LOUI ERIKSSON TOREY KRUG 7.7 LOUI ERIKSSON ZDENO CHARA DENNIS SEIDENBERG 3.9 PATRICE BERGERON RYAN SPOONER TOREY KRUG 3.6 PATRICE BERGERON RYAN SPOONER ZDENO CHARA 3.3