CHAPTER 3. DRAFT PICK VALUE 52 Figure 3.1 is a plot of our results. Figure 3.1: Draft Pick Value Chart Using this chart is fairly straightforward. You find the value of each draft pick involved in the trade and add up the values on each side of the trade. Going back to the original question of this chapter, we find that the 2nd overall pick has a value of 860. So, in order to make a fair o↵er to trade for the 2nd overall pick, you need to make sure the picks you o↵er in return add up to something close to 860. Reading numbers o↵of the plot is a bit difficult, so we’ve provided a table of data to assist you (see Table 3.2). Keep in mind that this is not a perfect model, but more of a guide to help you understand trade value of draft picks.5 You might also wonder why 12th round picks have virtually no value in this model. The answer is because 12th round pick players in fantasy hockey are easily replaceable on the waiver wire. 5We used a standard 12-team default league in Yahoo as our guide in these simulations. A league with more scoring categories might see a more severe slope to their plot. A league with more physical categories would see a less severe slope. CHAPTER 5. ANALYSIS OF THE NHL SCHEDULE 64 Table 5.3: NHL Bye Weeks 2016-2017 Team Days O↵Bye Week ANA 5 2017-02-26 - 2017-03-02 ARI 6 2017-01-08 - 2017-01-12 BOS 6 2017-02-13 - 2017-02-18 BUF 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 CAR 5 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-16 CBJ 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 CGY 5 2017-02-08 - 2017-02-12 CHI 6 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-17 COL 5 2017-01-07 - 2017-01-11 DAL 5 2017-02-19 - 2017-02-23 DET 6 2017-02-22 - 2017-02-27 EDM 5 2017-02-06 - 2017-02-10 FLA 5 2017-02-04 - 2017-02-08 LOS 6 2017-02-10 - 2017-02-15 Figure 5.2: NHL Schedule by Day of the Week MIN 5 2017-02-22 - 2017-02-26 MTL 5 2017-02-13 - 2017-02-17 NJD 5 2017-02-07 - 2017-02-11 The bye week will consist of at least five consecutive NSH 5 2017-02-13 - 2017-02-17 days in which the players will neither practice nor NYI 5 2017-01-01 - 2017-01-05 play hockey. The bye week must be independent from NYR 5 2017-01-08 - 2017-01-12 the All-Star break dates. OTT 5 2017-01-02 - 2017-01-06 PHI 5 2017-01-16 - 2017-01-20 These bye weeks could have a significant impact on PIT 7 2017-01-01 - 2017-01-07 head-to-head match-ups in fantasy hockey. We’ve SJS 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 compiled all of these bye weeks for you in Table 5.3 STL 5 2017-02-21 - 2017-02-25 so that you can prepare accordingly. TBL 6 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-17 TOR 5 2017-01-08 - 2017-01-12 The largest impact may be felt in leagues that re- VAN 5 2017-02-20 - 2017-02-24 quire a minimum number of goalie starts each week. WSH 6 2017-02-12 - 2017-02-17 Imagine owning Jake Allen and Martin Jones. In this WPG 6 2017-02-22 - 2017-02-27 scenario, you’d get zero goalie starts from February 20 - February 24. But skaters will feel the impact as well. For example, Sidney Crosby does not play a single game in the first seven days of January.6 5.5 Rested vs. Tired Games While these bye weeks will be important to you dur- Played ing the season, we do not recommend that you craft a draft strategy that incorporates these bye weeks. All of the bye weeks occur long before any of the fantasy One other important method for analyzing the NHL hockey playo↵s begin. schedule is determining which teams are playing rested and which teams are playing tired. The cri- terion for determining whether a team is rested or 6Of course this extends to players like Evgeni Malkin, Kris tired is simple: find out if the team played hockey Letang, Phil Kessel, etc. yesterday. CHAPTER 5. ANALYSIS OF THE NHL SCHEDULE 66 Figure 5.3: Rested & Tired Games Played in the NHL CHAPTER 6. KEY INJURIES & ISSUES 69 Matt Beleskey - Boston Bruins Injury: Hand 2016-05-03: Had hand surgery on April 14 and is expected to need six weeks for recovery. a ahttps://twitter.com/nhlbruins/status/727558618158002176 Jamie Benn - Dallas Stars Injury: Core 2016-07-15: Underwent surgery to repair a core muscle injury and is expected to need six weeks for recovery. a 2016-08-23: Dropped out of the World Cup of Hockey. Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill says Benn will be at 100% to start the season. b ahttps://twitter.com/starsinsideedge/status/753967360885727232 bhttps://twitter.com/DallasStars/status/768121570002817024 Nick Bjugstad - Florida Panthers Injury: Hand 2016-10-06: Will miss four weeks due to a broken hand. a ahttps://twitter.com/GeorgeRichards/status/784041715892101120 Ryan Callahan - Tampa Bay Lightning Injury: Hip 2016-06-21: Will miss five months following hip surgery.a 2016-09-07: Skated for the first time since surgery. He is expecting a mid-November return.b ahttps://twitter.com/tblightning/status/745361771783819264 bhttps://twitter.com/TBTimes_JSmith/status/773528898449641472 CHAPTER 11. SHOOTING PERCENTAGE AS A TOOL 106 11.2 Using SH% in Your 2016- this list manages to be on a line with improved line- mates in 2016-2017, then his expected drop might be 2017 Fantasy Draft slightly muted by this minor uptick. This is precisely the situation we had in mind when we mentioned We will now use the techniques described above to early on in the draft guide that we prefer a blend of project which NHL players are most likely to see a mathematics complemented by a situational aware- decline in their 2016-2017 SH% (and very likely expe- ness for both individual players and teams. rience a corresponding decline in overall goal scoring). For a powerful 1-2 punch, combine the above list with Note that we chose a cuto↵requiring the players to the fact that most NHL players experience a natural have taken at least 150 SOG during the 2015-2016 decline in their SH% after the age of 27.2 Your con- season. densed list would include names such as: Zack Smith, It is important to make the distinction here between Jannik Hansen, Shane Doan, Brent Seabrook, Matt regression and having a bad season. We are not pro- Cullen, Duncan Keith, Jaromir Jagr, Mikko Koivu, jecting the players in the table below to necessarily Mats Zuccarello, Nicklas Backstrom, and Shea We- have bad seasons. We are not necessarily telling you ber. to avoid particular players on this list. We are simply History tells us that only 1 or 2 players from the projecting the players below to see significant reduc- table above will buck the trend of dropping in goal tions in their shooting percentages that fall more in production. Do you really like your odds (0%-10%) line with their career averages. of picking that specific player to draft? Table 11.3: Likely Regression Candidates Player Career 2015-2016 11.3 Case Studies in Shooting Zack Smith 10.2 20.7 Percentage Jannik Hansen 11.6 18.8 Shane Doan 10.4 16.5 Cody Ceci 5.5 8.6 11.3.1 Claude Giroux: 2013-2014 Brent Seabrook 5.6 7.4 Matt Cullen 9.4 13.6 Claude Giroux remained goalless through the first Duncan Keith 4.9 6.9 15 games of the 2013-2014 NHL season. By mid- J.T. Miller 11.7 16.3 November, he had scored only one goal on 46 shots Artem Anisimov 12.0 16.5 for a 2.2% shooting percentage. Frustrated by his Jaromir Jagr 13.8 18.9 performance (and that of the entire Flyers’ team), Mikko Koivu 8.9 12.1 many fantasy hockey managers gave up on Giroux Mats Zuccarello 11.8 15.7 and either dropped him or traded him for weak re- Nicklas Backstrom 11.7 15.5 turns. Shea Weber 8.1 10.6 3 Joe Colborne 14.7 19.0 At the time, Giroux was a career 12.1% shooter. Us- ing our results from the coin flip discussions earlier in this kit, we know that 68% of the time his season-long There is evidence that elite players can boost the shooting percentage should fall within 10% - 14%. 1 SH% of their linemates by about 1%. If a forward on 2http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/4/15/1418423/ shooting-percentage-vs-age 1http://goo.gl/Z1ykQs 3His current career average is 11.0% CHAPTER 13. ASSISTS: THEORY 114 Figure 13.2: Drop in Production of Secondary Assists 13.1, it’s not nearly as interesting as it looks.7 The -100%? Because once you lose 100% of something, reason this part of the graph looks suspicious is the you haven’t got anything else to lose. following: players who earn very few secondary as- sists in one season (think 1-2 secondary assists) will Many of the players who post more than 0.3 sec- often see large changes in their totals (positive or ondary assists per game in one season will see drops negative).