Tendring District Council EMPLOYMENT STUDY: PART ONE

with

Final Report May 2009

ROGER TYM & PARTNERS Fairfax House 15 Fulwood Place London WC1V 6HU t (020) 7831 2711 f (020) 7831 7653 e [email protected] w www.tymconsult.com

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P1879

CONTENTS

111 INTRODUCTION ...... 111 The Study ...... 1

222 POLICY FRAMEWORK ...... 444 Planning Policy ...... 4

333 SOCIO ECONOMIC BASELBASELINEINEINEINE ...... 272727 Introduction ...... 27 Workplace Economy ...... 28 The Residents ...... 49 Key Points ...... 59

444 PROPERTY MARKET PROFPROFILEILEILEILE ...... 616161 Floorspace Activity ...... 62 Rents ...... 67 Profile of Occupiers ...... 69

555 QUALITATIVE FUTURES ––– SCENARIO BUILDING ...... 717171 Why scenario building is needed ...... 71 The context for scenario building in Tendring ...... 72 The Scenarios ...... 74

666 FORECASTS ...... 818181 Introduction ...... 81 Scenarios ...... 81 RSS Policy E1 ...... 82 RSS Baseline ...... 83 The demand for employment land ...... 85 Scenario 2 – Bathside Bay ...... 88 Scenario 3 – Raised Employment Rates ...... 89 Non-B class uses ...... 90 Conclusions ...... 98

777 SPATIAL IMPLICATIOIMPLICATIONSNSNSNS ...... 999999 Introduction ...... 99 RSS Baseline ...... 99 Bathside Bay Scenario ...... 100 Raised Employment Rate Scenario ...... 101 Conclusions ...... 102

888 CONCLUSIONS ...... 105105 Overview ...... 105 Realistic prospects for Tendring ...... 105 Recommended Planning Strategy to Support the Preferred Growth Scenario ...... 109

APPENDICES

Appendix 1 – Socio-Economic Data

Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

111 INTRODUCTION

The Study

1.1 Roger Tym and Partners were commissioned by Tendring District Council in May 2008 to undertake this Employment Study. The study – which will be undertaken in two parts, with this report representing Part One - is more than simply an Employment Land Review, although this is an important function that the study fulfils, following the guidance provided by the Government in its 2004 Employment Land Reviews Guidance Note . 1.2 As stated in the brief, the Council requires: “…the outcomes of the commission to specifically provide a robust evidence base which will underpin key elements of the Council’s emerging Local Development Framework (LDF); in particular the Core Strategy (also incorporating strategic development control policies), and the Housing Allocations and Employment Allocations Local Development Document.” 1.3 It goes on to say that the outcomes will also: “…inform the development of local and sub-regional employment strategies and investment decisions (through the very act of satisfying the LDF requirements) in line with the corporate policies of the Council which focus on the role of employment (growth) in realising its regeneration priorities and having as its number one priority a strong local economy.” 1.4 The East of England Plan: Revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) sets an employment growth target of 20,000 additional jobs for Colchester and Tendring districts (being the part of the Haven Gateway sub-region in Essex) between 2001 and 2021. The favoured split between the two districts apportions 6,100 jobs to Tendring. Between 2001 and 2008, more than 5,900 net new jobs have been created in the District 1. In other words, nearly all of the RSS requirement has been delivered in the first seven years of the 20-year RSS period. 1.5 Notwithstanding the current recession – which is likely to put a brake on any significant employment growth over the next two to three years - Tendring is certain to deliver the RSS requirement and will probably exceed it substantially by 2021. The need therefore is to reassess the prospects for the district’s economy and consider its potential up to 2026. Within this context, the Employment Study considers the demand for employment land in the District up to 2026 (and 2031 where appropriate) and the implications of accommodating employment growth. The associated analysis of the supply of employment land will be undertaken in Part Two of the study. 1.6 Unlike many employment land studies, this study recognises the growing contribution that is made by employment in non-B-class employment uses. In particular this relates

1 From EEDA projections – this is discussed in more detail in Chapter 6

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to retail, leisure and tourism sectors and it is the role of this study to consider the demand for and supply of space for these. 1.7 The study will also seek to consider the alternatives that Tendring might want to aspire to and put in place the structure of a strategy for achieving this. In looking for a strong and robust evidence base for planning a long time into the future (in this case, at least 15 years), a scenario building/visioning approach is valuable. This helps to show where the district’s economy could be in the future and what it needs to do to get there. The vision and scenario building will deliberately go beyond the forecasts. The scenarios themselves will combine both macro (district and wider economy) and micro (sector development) aspects in their development. 1.8 At its core, this scenario building process will define an economic future for the district and its sub-areas and define the role of the growth sectors in Tendring. It will also provide a coherent framework for integrating and co-ordinating the existing local economic and regeneration strategies and provide a framework for economic and infrastructure investments. Context for the study 1.9 This study is to form one part of the evidence base that Tendring District Council use to inform the development of its LDF. As such, it must be placed within the context of what other evidence says on a range of related planning-related matters. Inevitably, each piece of evidence is being produced at a different time and often it is not possible to feed evidence in from other areas because it is not yet available. 1.10 Whilst the current RSS employment target (which is a minimum, rather than a figure that acts as a ‘ceiling’ to development) has nearly been delivered, this is not necessarily the case for other requirements for the district. In particular, the Haven Gateway has been given substantial housing targets (again a minimum not a ceiling) which need to be delivered. In the absence of understanding how challenging those targets are and where the focus for housing development needs to be, it is difficult to know the impact that this will have on the employment strategy. However, the Government’s recent emphasis through PPS3 has been on strong delivery of housing and it has to be assumed that the requirements of that strategy will be one of the highest priorities for Tendring District Council. The recommendations of this study therefore need to be considered within this wider context of the emerging LDF evidence base. 1.11 There are several broad spatial scenarios that are informing the development of the LDF Issues and Options. These must be informed themselves by this study. Likewise, the study will therefore use these options to inform the economic scenarios that are developed. 1.12 The options are:
A housing-led option that links housing with employment. Therefore, with the greatest need for housing growth being in Clacton (as reported in the Tendring Strategy Housing Market Assessment 2008), an equivalent level of employment

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growth focused on Clacton should also be considered in so far as it is realistic to do so.
An employment-led option, where the location of housing development is made to match the spatial pattern of potential employment growth.
A focus of employment growth on the main regeneration areas of Clacton and Harwich.
An option where employment growth and housing growth are planned entirely independently.
An option whereby the planned development at Bathside Bay does not happen. Structure of the ssstudystudy 1.13 The Part One study is presented as follows:
The first three chapters of the report focus on the current situation. Chapter 2 reviews the existing policy framework within which the study sits. Chapter 3 undertakes a full socio-economic review, incorporating a review of the non B-class uses – tourism, health and social work, retail and education. Chapter 4 reviews the property market profile of Tendring within the context of the surrounding districts and the Haven Gateway sub-region.
The next two chapters consider the possible futures that Tendring could plan for. Chapter 5 presents three different qualitative scenarios for Tendring in 2026 and the types of activities that would need to occur in order to achieve these. Chapter 6 provides a complementary set of econometric forecasts for both B-class and non B-class uses.
This analysis in Chapters 5 and 6 provides the framework for the assessment of the spatial implications of each scenario that is presented in Chapter 7. This spatial analysis is broken down by planning sub-area, clearly laying out the requirements in terms of employment floorspace of each scenario.
Lastly, Chapter 8 provides the conclusions on the prospects of delivering each of the scenarios. It then recommends which approach should be adopted and what is necessary to achieve this. 1.14 The Part Two study will consider the existing supply of employment land and the potential for new sites to come forward in order to deliver the preferred scenario(s).

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222 POLICY FRAMEWORK

Planning Policy Introduction 2.1 This section summarises the principal national, regional and local planning policy guidance applicable to the issue of the provision of employment sites and the development of relevant policies. 2.2 Advice from government on planning policy comes in a series of policy advice documents, numbered 1 to 25. The older documents are called Planning Policy Guidance Notes (PPGs), which are gradually being replaced with more up to date Planning Policy Statements (PPSs). 2.3 Related policies of the approved East of England Plan (RSS14) together with objectives and recommendations of locally based policies and strategies are also referred to as part of the overall planning policy review. In addition, as the District abuts part of the urban area of Colchester, which contains significant employment generating uses land allocations, brief reference is also made to the relevant parts of Colchester Borough Council’s LDF Core Strategy. 2.4 The aim of this part of the employment study is to highlight relevant up to date planning policy considerations, which run through the various policy documents. The planning policy guidance may be used to inform the development of a revised economic development spatial strategy to be included in the Council’s emerging Local Development Framework (LDF). 2.5 The relevant national, regional and local policy documents are referred to below. PPS1 ––– Delivering Sustainable Development, 2005 2.6 PPS1 sets out the Government’s overarching objective to deliver ‘sustainable development’ through the planning system. Paragraph 5 states that planning should facilitate and promote sustainable and inclusive patterns of development by inter alia;
Making suitable land available for development in line with economic, social and environmental objectives to improve people’s quality of life;
Contributing to sustainable economic development
Protecting and enhancing the natural and historic environment and existing communities;
Ensuring high quality development through good and inclusive design and the efficient use of resources;
Ensuring that development supports existing communities and contributes to the creation of safe, sustainable, liveable, and mixed communities with good access to jobs and key services for all members of the community. 2.7 Paragraph 23 emphasises that the Government is committed to producing a strong, stable and productive economy that aims to bring jobs and prosperity for all. So, planning authorities should:

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(i) Recognise that economic development can deliver environmental and social benefits (ii) Recognise the wider sub-regional, regional or national benefits of economic development and consider these alongside any adverse local impacts (iii) Ensure that suitable locations are available for industrial, commercial, retail, public sector (e.g. health and education) tourism and leisure developments, so that the economy can prosper (iv) Provide for improved productivity, choice and competition, particularly when technological and other requirements of modern business are changing rapidly (v) Recognise that all local economies are subject to change; planning authorities should be sensitive to these changes and the implications for development and growth (vi) Actively promote and facilitate good quality development, which is consistent with their plans (vii) Ensure the provision of sufficient good quality homes (including an appropriate mix of housing and adequate levels of affordable housing) in suitable locations, whether through new development or the conversion of existing buildings. The aim should be to ensure that everyone has the opportunity of a decent home, in locations that reduce the need to travel (viii) Ensure that infrastructure and services are provided to support existing economic development and housing (ix) Ensure that development plans take account of the regional economic strategies of Regional Development Agencies, regional housing strategies, local authority community strategies and local economic strategies; and (x) Identify opportunities for future investment to deliver economic objectives. 2.8 Paragraph 27 gives some advice on the general approach local authorities should take in order to deliver sustainable development. The following are relevant to this study: (i) Promote national, regional, sub-regional and local economies by providing, in support of the Regional Economic Strategy, a positive planning framework for sustainable economic growth to support efficient, competitive and innovative business, commercial and industrial sectors. (ii) Promote urban and rural regeneration to improve the well being of communities, improve facilities, promote high quality and safe development and create new opportunities for the people living in those communities. Policies should promote mixed use developments for locations that allow the creation of linkages between different uses and can thereby create more vibrant places. (iii) Promote communities which are inclusive, healthy, safe and crime free, whilst respecting the diverse needs of communities and the special needs of particular sectors of the community (iv) Bring forward sufficient land of a suitable quality in appropriate locations to meet the expected needs for housing, for industrial development, for the exploitation of raw materials such as minerals, for retail and commercial development, and for leisure and recreation – taking into account issues such as accessibility and sustainable transport needs, the provision of essential infrastructure, including for sustainable waste management, and the need to avoid flood risk and other natural hazards (v) Provide improved access for all to jobs, health, education, shops, leisure and community facilities, open space, sport and recreation, by ensuring that new development is located where everyone can access services or facilities on foot,

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bicycle or public transport rather than having to rely on access by car, while recognising that this may be more difficult in rural areas (vi) Focus developments that attract a large number of people, especially retail, leisure and office development, in existing centres to promote their vitality and viability, social inclusion and more sustainable patterns of development. (vii) Promote the more efficient use of land through higher density, mixed use development and the use of suitably located previously developed land and buildings. Planning should actively manage patterns of urban growth to make the fullest use of public transport and focus development in existing centres and near to major public transport interchanges (viii) Promote the more efficient use of land through higher density, mixed use development and the use of suitably located previously developed land and buildings. Planning should seek actively to bring vacant and underused previously developed land and buildings back into beneficial use to achieve the targets the Government has set for development on previously developed land. (ix) Enhance as well as protect biodiversity, natural habitats, the historic environment and landscape and townscape character. (x) Address, on the basis of sound science, the causes and impacts of climate change, the management of pollution and natural hazards, the safeguarding of natural resources and the minimization of impacts from the management and use of resources. 2.9 The above general guidance set out in PPS1 provides a basis for planning for sustainable forms of development and economic growth, which permeate down through the Regional Spatial Strategy through to the emerging core strategy and site specific allocations to be included in the LDF. Further specific guidance in this regard is set out in the Supplement to PPS1 and other guidance as referred to below. Planning Policy Statement: Planning and Climate Change ––– SuSuSupplementSu pplement to PPS1, 2007 2.10 PPS1 Supplement provides guidance on how the planning process should contribute to reducing emissions and stabilising climate change, whilst taking account of the unavoidable consequences of development. Tackling climate change is a key Government priority for the planning system. 2.11 The PPS Supplement sets out how regional and local planning can best support achievement of the zero carbon targets alongside meeting community needs for economic and housing development. 2.12 Paragraph 9 advises that to deliver sustainable development and a full and appropriate response on climate change, regional planning bodies and all planning authorities should prepare and manage the delivery of spatial strategies that; (i) Make a full contribution to delivering the Governments Climate Change Programme and energy policies, and in so doing contribute to global sustainability; (ii) In providing for the homes, jobs, services and infrastructure needed by communities, and in renewing and shaping places where they live and work, secure the highest viable resource and energy efficiency and reduction in emissions; (iii) Deliver patterns of urban growth and sustainable rural developments that help secure the fullest possible use of sustainable transport for moving freight, public

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transport, cycling and walking, and, which overall, reduce the need to travel especially by car; (iv) Secure new development and shape places that minimise vulnerability and provide resilience to climate change, and in ways that are consistent with social cohesion and inclusion; (v) Conserve and enhance biodiversity, recognising that the distribution of habitats and species will be affected by climate change; (vi) Reflect the development needs and interests of communities and enable them to contribute effectively to tackling climate change, and (vii) Respond to the concerns of business and encourage competitiveness and technological innovation in mitigating and adapting to climate change. 2.13 Paragraphs 23 – 24 guide the approach to selecting land for development, and state that in deciding which areas and sites are suitable for a particular type and intensity of development, planning authorities should assess their consistency with the policies in the PPS1 Supplement, and take account of the following matters; (i) The extent to which existing or planned opportunities for decentralised and renewable or low carbon energy could contribute to the energy supply of development; (ii) Whether there is, or the potential for, a realistic choice of access by means other than the private car, and for opportunities to service the site through sustainable transport; (iii) The capacity of existing and potential infrastructure to service the site or area in ways consistent with cutting carbon dioxide emissions and successfully adapting to likely changes in the local climate; (iv) The ability to build and sustain socially cohesive communities with appropriate community infrastructure, having regard to the full range of local impacts that could arise as a result of likely changes to the climate; (v) The effect of development on biodiversity and its capacity to adapt to likely changes in the climate; (vi) The contribution to be made from existing and new opportunities for open space and green infrastructure to urban cooling, sustainable drainage systems, and conserving and enhancing biodiversity, and (vii) Known physical and environmental constraints on the development of land such as sea level rises, flood risk and stability, and take a precautionary approach to increases in risk that could arise as a result of likely changes to the climate. PPS3 --- Housing, 2006 2.14 Although aimed at housing development, PPS3 refers to a key consideration concerning locating land for housing in places which offer a range of community facilities with good access to jobs, key services and infrastructure (paragraph 36). 2.15 In addition, in the context of placing an emphasis on the development of housing on previously developed land, PPS3 states that sites currently allocated for industrial or commercial uses should be considered in order to determine whether or not they should be re-allocated for housing development. 2.16 The above considerations have been taken into account in the site assessment exercise in Section 8.

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PPG4 ––– Industrial and Commercial Development and Small FirFirms,ms, 1992 2.17 PPG4 is particularly relevant to the Employment Study, although given that it is now nearly 17 years old, parts have become rather dated and the entire document is being revised (see draft PPS4 below). However, its key messages remain relevant. PPG4 emphasises the importance of having a positive approach towards development proposals that contribute to national and local economic activity. The guidance recognises that “it may not be appropriate to separate industry and commerce – especially small scale developments – from residential communities for whom they are a source of employment and services”, (paragraph 15). 2.18 However, the guidance also states that development plans must prevent potential land use conflicts between incompatible uses. Since the Note was issued, the climate has changed significantly, with a more positive attitude prevailing towards mixed use developments.

2.19 Encouragement is given to identifying sites which can be served by energy efficient modes of transport. Mixed use development is also referred to and development which re-uses urban land is also supported. 2.20 Within the District there are a number of established employment uses and industrial areas within and on the edge of the main settlements. We acknowledge the desirability of promoting mixed use developments in certain circumstances. However, for large scale employment development, particularly on industrial sites, we have also acknowledged the need to have appropriate land use segregation particularly in areas such as Harwich International Port, where 24 hour commercial activity is ongoing and likely to continue. Consultation Paper PPS4: Planning for Sustainable Economic Development, December 2007. 2.21 Although not yet formally adopted to succeed PPG4, this Paper sets out how the Government sees local authorities planning effectively and proactively for economic growth that is necessary to help create and sustain sustainable communities. 2.22 The Government’s key policy outcomes for economic development are to: (i) Raise the productivity of the UK economy; (ii) Maximise job opportunities for all (iii) Improve the economic performance of all English regions and reduce the gap in economic growth rates between regions; (iv) Deliver sustainable development, (the key principles of which, including responding to climate change, are set out in PPS 1 and the annex to PPS 1 on Climate Change); (v) Build prosperous communities by improving the economic performance of cities, sub-regions and local areas, promoting regeneration and tackling deprivation. 2.23 Draft PPS4 emphasises that a robust evidence base is necessary to underpin local authority policies, and this Study forms part of that base. However, recognising that there is a limit to the extent to which local authorities can predict the future needs of their local economies, the draft guidance states that they must also be prepared to

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adopt a flexible approach to the supply and use of land. The Government is looking to local authorities to achieve: A good range of sites identified for economic development and mixed-use development A good supply of land and buildings which offers a range of opportunities for creating new jobs in large and small businesses as well as start-up firms and which is responsive to changing needs and demands; High quality development and inclusive design for all forms of economic development; Avoiding adverse impacts on the environment, but where these are unavoidable, providing mitigation, and Shaping travel demand by promoting sustainable travel choices wherever possible. 2.24 The evidence–base is seen as crucial, in order to understand both existing business needs and likely changes in the market. Local authorities should:

i) Thoroughly assess the existing supply of land available for economic development through an employment land review. Where possible, land use reviews, such as housing and employment, should be undertaken at the same time to ensure a full assessment of competing land uses is made. Where appropriate, local authorities should carry out joint land use reviews; ii) Ensure that the strategy takes into account the nature of the regional or local character and the need for a high quality environment; iii) Ensure that the strategy addresses the particular needs of rural areas in terms of new economic opportunities; iv) Take account of the different locational requirements of businesses, such as the size of site required, site quality, access and proximity to markets, as well as the locally available workforce; v) Take account of relevant market information and economic data, including price signals; vi) Maintain an up-to—date assessment of the demand for employment land, taking into account the wider spatial vision for the area or where monitoring reveals an excess or shortfall of employment land. This assessment should take into account market conditions and trends, economic data, including price signals, and the needs of different types of economic development; vii) Ensure the plan supports existing sectors, taking into consideration whether they are expanding or contracting; viii) Where possible identify and plan for new or emerging sectors likely to locate in the region/sub-region/local area or which the regional planning body of local planning authority wish to attract to the region or area, but maintain flexibility to accommodate sectors not anticipated in the plan; ix) Recognise and positively plan for, the benefits that can accrue when certain types of businesses locate within proximity of each other or with other compatible land uses such as universities and hospitals; x) Develop policies, in conjunction with the higher and further education sectors and other stakeholders, to assist business, particularly knowledge based and high- technology industries;

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xi) Identify, protect and promote key distribution networks, and locate or co-locate developments which generate substantial freight movements in such a way as to minimise carbon emissions. Such networks and development should be in sustainably sited locations, so as to avoid congestion and to preserve local amenity interests as far as possible whilst ensuring accessibility (including to rail and water transport where feasible); xii) For telecommunications networks, provide an appropriate framework, including policies and proposals for the siting and external appearance of telecommunications developments, and for guiding such developments where sites other than those identified in the plan are proposed; and xiii) For office (B1a) development, give preference to the identification of sites in or on the edge of town centres for larger office development, consistent with the sequential approach in PPS6, whilst recognising that market demand will influence office location. Opportunities for smaller scale office development should be promoted taking account of local circumstances and wider benefits that may arise from the proposal. Where office development is ancillary to other forms of economic development not located in the town centre there should be no requirement for such offices to be located in the town centre. 2.25 Further and extensive detailed advice is given on recognising the needs of business, efficient and effective use of land, securing a high quality and sustainable environment, and taking a positive approach to development control functions. 2.26 Draft PPS4 also advises that in rural areas accessibility is a key consideration and says that Local Planning Authorities should:

i) Support farm diversification schemes for business purposes that help to sustain agricultural enterprise and are consistent in their scale with their rural location and environmental impact; ii) Recognise that a site may be an acceptable location for development even though it may not be readily accessible by public transport iii) Support sustainable rural tourism and leisure developments that benefit rural businesses, communities and visitors; and iv) Support small-scale economic development where it provides the most sustainable option in villages that are remote from, and have poor transport links with local service centres. Planning Policy Statement 6 ––– Planning for Town Centres, 2005 2.27 PPS6 is focussed on protecting the role of town centres on grounds of vitality, viability and sustainability. Although retail development is beyond the scope of this study, the main principles underpinning the application of a sequential approach to identifying and assessing sites for offices, leisure and tourism uses apply and is relevant. 2.28 Therefore, the guidance set out in PPS6 is to be taken into account when A) allocating sites for employment generating development and b) formulating generic policies for such proposals. PPS 7 ––– Sustainable Development in Rural Areas, 2004

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2.29 As Tendring contains a large ‘rural area’ consideration of the policy guidance in the PPS7 is appropriate. The achievement of sustainable forms of development is the overall aim of the guidance and specific to economic development and employment generation, it states that local planning authorities should: (i) Identify within Local Development Documents (LDDs) suitable sites for future economic development, particularly in those rural areas where there is a need for employment creation and economic regeneration; (ii) Set out in the LDDs criteria for permitting economic development in different locations, including the future expansion of business premises, to facilitate healthy and diverse economic activity in rural areas. 2.30 PPS7 places an emphasis on re-using existing buildings in the countryside for economic development purposes including those associated with tourism objectives. Advice is also provided on development within nationally designated areas (such as Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty like the Stour AONB). PPS 9 ––– Biodiversity and Geological Conservation, 2005 2.31 The Government’s conservation and biodiversity objectives for planning are: (i) To promote sustainable development (ii) To conserve, enhance and restore the diversity of England’s wildlife and geology; and (iii) To contribute to rural renewal and urban renaissance. 2.32 Six key principles are recorded, and the roles of Regional Spatial strategies and Local Development Frameworks are discussed. The following sites of Biodiversity and Geological Conservation Value are identified: (i) International sites – Special Protection Areas, Special Areas of Conservation and Ramsar sites and those under consideration for such designation are relevant here; (ii) Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) (iii) Regional and Local Sites – includes Regionally Important Geological sites, Local Nature Reserves and Local Sites (iv) Ancient Woodland and Other Important Natural Habitats (v) Networks of Natural habitats – these should be identified and protected from development by local authorities (vi) Previously Developed Land- may have elements of biodiversity that should be protected in redevelopment. 2.33 Generally the approach is for planning to support these designations. Therefore, consideration of any employment land allocation will need to take account of these constraints. PPS12 ––– Creating Strong Safe and Prosperous Communities thrthroughough Local Spatial Planning, 2008 2.34 Revised PPS12 provides advice on the content and purpose of Local Development Frameworks. As this Employment Study is intended to inform the development of Tendring’s Core Strategy the guidance is of particular relevance.

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2.35 Apart from the general issue of district-wide provision for employment opportunities to be included within site specific proposals and generic development control policies, certain key land use proposals regarded as being central to the achievement of the Core Strategy, may also be identified as such within the Strategy e.g. major port related development at Bathside Bay. 2.36 Throughout the process of the preparation of LDFs, local authorities are expected to engage with key stakeholders, including delivery agencies. All Development Plan Documents (which together comprise the LDF) must each be adjudged to be ‘sound’. In this regard, PPS12 advises that: To be “sound” a DPD should be JUSTIFIED, EFFECTIVE and consistent with NATIONAL POLICY. “Justified” means that the document must be:
Founded on a robust and credible evidence base
The most appropriate strategy when considered against the reasonable alternatives “Effective” means that the document must be:
Deliverable
Flexible
Able to be monitored” 2.37 This is basic but fundamental advice, and highlights the importance of this study in terms of the generation of a “robust and credible evidence base”, justifying the employment aspects of the LDF. PPG 13 ––– Transport, 2001 2.38 Revised PPG13 on transport was published in March 2001. Its objectives are to: (i) Promote more sustainable transport choices for both people and for moving freight; (ii) Promote accessibility to jobs, shopping, leisure facilities and services by public transport, walking and cycling; and (iii) Reduce the need to travel, especially by car. 2.39 Paragraph 19 clearly states that “a key planning objective is to ensure that jobs, shopping, leisure facilities and services are accessible by public transport, walking and cycling.” The guidance subsequently acknowledges that “in rural areas, the potential for using public transport and non recreational walking and cycling is more limited than in urban areas,“ (paragraph 40) although the objective remains the same to increase accessibility and social inclusion. For this reason, employment generating uses should be concentrated in town and district centres, (paragraph 20) and local service centres (paragraph 41). 2.40 Paragraph 20 refers to linking planning and transport policies and states that land uses should be focused in towns and near to major public transport interchanges, to manage the pattern of urban growth to make the fullest use of public transport and develop the potential for changing overall travel patterns. Paragraph 21 states that

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when identifying key sites maximum use should be made of the most accessible locations. When assessing sites the guidance states that a realistic choice of access by public transport walking and cycling should be made and the onus should be placed on the developer to demonstrate why a location has been chosen. 2.41 Regarding offices and information and communication technology (ICT) the guidance at paragraph 32 states that for class B1 uses planning authorities should adopt a positive plan led approach to identify highly accessible locations. Reference is also made to the need for and desirability of travel plans. 2.42 For rural areas, PPG13 states that the objective is to ensure that development is sited at the most accessible locations in the local area, taking account of local circumstances. Reference is also made to PDL and it is explained that because a site is classed as PDL, this is not a reason for identifying land for development itself. 2.43 Reference is made to linking to local transport strategies and to reduce long distance out commuting and to consider the scale, impact and likely catchment areas of potential developments. Under public transport the guidance states that the likely availability and use of public transport is a very important ingredient in determining locational policies. 2.44 Further reference to transport policy issues is set out below under the Local Transport Plan review section. PPS 23 ––– Planning and Pollution Control, 2005 2.45 PPS 23 explains that pollution can be a critical factor, both in the control of the construction of development if on previously developed land, and in the on-going control of the development itself, once operational. 2.46 The Statement concludes that the overall aim of planning and pollution control is to ensure the sustainable and beneficial use of land. Within this aim the Statement explains that polluting activities that are necessary for society and the economy should be so sited and planned that their, and subject to such planning conditions that, their adverse effects are minimised and contained to within acceptable limits. PPG 24 ––– Planning and Noise 2.47 PPG24 explains that the impact of noise can be a material consideration in the determination of planning applications and the planning system should ensure that, wherever practicable, noise-sensitive developments are separated from major sources of noise (which includes certain types of industrial development). Specific advice is given at paragraph 19 of annex 3 on noise arising from industrial and commercial premises. 2.48 In the context of an employment land study, noise is an issue that could make certain sites unsuited to specific industrial or commercial uses, and is therefore, a key consideration to be taken into account at the site identification/allocation stage of the plan making process.

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PPS25 ––– DevelopmDevelopmeeeentnt and Flood Risk, December 2006 2.49 Since the publication of this version of PPS25 much greater emphasis is given to the issue of flood risk and development. The guidance states that in preparing planning strategies, local planning authorities should: (i) Prepare LDDs that set out policies for the allocation of sites and control of development which avoid flood risk to people and property where possible and manage it elsewhere; (ii) Consider opportunities for relocating development currently within in unsustainable locations and threatened by flooding through climate change; (iii) Consider flood risk alongside all other spatial planning issues, and recognise the positive contribution that the management of flood risk can make to enhancing quality of life (iv) Take account of flood risk in carrying out the sustainability appraisal of LDDs. 2.50 The guidance also states that a Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (“SFRA”) should be carried out by local planning authorities to inform the preparation of LDDs. In this regard the ‘Sequential Test’ should be applied to demonstrate that there are no reasonably available sites on areas with a lower probability of flooding that would be appropriate to the type of development or land use proposed. PPS25 explains that if a wide area is liable to flooding it may be possible to apply the “Exception Test”, to see if the development is acceptable in the wider community interest. 2.51 The Environment Agency has statutory responsibility for flood management and defence in England, and is a statutory consultee to the planning process on this issue. It holds a position of great influence, since if an objection is lodged to a major application proposal, the local planning authority are not able to approve the relevant planning application. Instead it has to be referred to the Government Office who may call it in for its own determination. 2.52 The implications of flood risk guidance as set out in PPS25 is of particular relevance in the Tendring context. This is due to parts of the coastal areas within and next to Harwich (including the International Port area), other coastal towns and areas fall within designated Flood Risk Zones 2 (medium probability) and 3a (high probability) and 3b (functional floodplain). These areas represent both environmental and planning policy constraints to securing different types of employment generating development. 2.53 In the context of most types of employment generating land uses of a non residential nature, PPS25 places them in a ‘Less Vulnerable’ category which is deemed to represent ‘Appropriate’ forms of development in Flood Zones 1, 2 and 3a. Within Flood Zone 3b, i.e. the ‘Functional Floodplain’ only ‘water compatible’ development is normally permitted e.g. docks, marinas, wharves and development of an ancillary nature. Living WorWorkingking Countryside ––– the Taylor Review of Rural Economy and Affordable Housing (CLG, July 2008) 2.54 Living Working Countryside published in 2008 referred to by the Government as the ‘Taylor Review’ contains a series of recommendations on how to nurture a healthy

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rural economy and ensure an adequate supply of affordable rural housing. Key recommendations relevant to this employment study include a suggested consolidation of the current planning policy statement (PPS) series and an acknowledgement of the importance of rural economies to regional and national economies. The review also reflected support for aspects of draft PPS4 referred to above including the need for an evidence based approach to the identification and loss of employment sites, the potential accommodation of all types of business and enterprise in rural areas and recognition that not all development in such areas can be accessed by public transport. 2.55 In March 2009 the Government published its response to the Taylor Review and confirmed that it generally agrees with a large number of the recommendations. In relation to the review of the PPS series, the response made reference to the Government’s intention to consult on a new draft PPS on ‘Planning for Prosperous Economies’ which is intended to combine draft PPS4: Planning for Sustainable Economic Development, PPG5: Simplified Planning Zones, PPS6: Planning for Town Centres and the economic development policies in PPS7: Sustainable Development in Rural Areas. Therefore, any subsequent new planning policy statement(s) will need to be taken into account as part of the employment study in due course. Regional Spatial Strategy ––– East of England Plan (RSS14), May 2008 2.56 The Regional Spatial Strategy comprises part of the adopted Development Plan for the area covered by the District and wider Region. It provides strategic planning policy advice for the six counties of Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire. The principles of sustainability lie at the heart of the Plan. 2.57 Policy SS5 identifies priority areas for regeneration, and these include the Haven Gateway (Ipswich/ Harwich/Colchester and Clacton) and it is expected that LDDs should set out policies to tackle the problems of these areas. 2.58 Section 4 of the Plan relates to Economic Development, and the Essex part of the Haven Gateway (Tendring and Colchester) has a target of 20,000 net additional jobs for the period 2001-2021 (of which 6,100 are to be accommodated within Tendring). 2.59 Policy E2 relates to the provision of land for employment and is particularly relevant: Local Development Documents should ensure that an adequate range of sites/premises (including sites within mixed-use areas and town/district centres) is allocated to accommodate the full range of sectoral requirements to achieve the indicative job growth targets of Policy E1, or revisions to those targets as allowed in that policy, and the needs of local communities as revealed by up-to-date employment land reviews. Where development proposals and issues cross local authority boundaries this approach should be applied across the whole urban or development area. Sites of sufficient range, quantity and quality to cater for relevant employment sectors should be provided at appropriate scales in urban areas, market towns and key rural centres at locations which:
Minimize commuting and promote more sustainable communities by achieving a closer relationship between jobs and homes;

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Meet the needs of the region’s sectors and clusters identified in Policy E3, the Regional Economic Strategy or through Local Development Documents;
Provide appropriately for identified needs for skills-training and education;
Maximize use of public transport;
Minimise loss of, or damage to, environmental and social capital and, where necessary, substitute for any losses and secure positive enhancements. This will often mean giving preference to the re-use of previously developed land and the intensification of development within existing sites over the release of Greenfield land; and
Avoid any adverse impact on sites of European or international importance for wildlife. 2.60 Policy E2 above refers to policy E3. This identifies the need for strategic employment sites in key areas to support key policy requirements. The Haven Gateway is one of the areas listed, with the reason given to “support growth and regeneration at Colchester and Ipswich, including the latter’s role in ICT, and development associated with port expansion at Harwich and Felixstowe”. 2.61 The Plan also contains specific policies for the Haven Gateway sub region and designated New Growth Point, which the entire District also lies within. Those policies relevant to this Study are: 2.62 HG1 – Strategy for the Sub-Region “The sub-regional strategy aims to achieve transformational development and change throughout Haven Gateway which will:
Develop the diverse economy of the sub-region, including provision for the needs of an expanding tourism sector, support for the establishment and expansion of ICT clusters and recognition of the potential and need for employment growth in the smaller towns;
Support existing and proposed academic, scientific and research institutions;
Regenerate the sub-region to address unemployment, deprivation and social issues;
Provide for major housing growth at the key centres of Colchester and Ipswich 2.63 HG2 – Employment Generating Development “ Local Development Documents should provide an enabling context for not less than 50,000 jobs in Haven Gateway distributed as in Policy E1. The local authorities, supported by regional and local partners, should facilitate this increase in jobs by promoting a competitive sub-regional business environments through:
Supporting the maintenance and appropriate expansion of the ports, maritime and related activities, recognising the role they paly in making the sub-region a major economic growth point and approved proposals for container handling capacity at Bathside Bay and Felixstowe South;
Promoting the urban areas of Colchester and Ipswich as major centres of employment;

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Providing appropriate sites, premises and infrastructure to attract a diverse range of employment to Ipswich, Colchester, Harwich, Felixstowe and Clacton;
Regeneration initiatives in Colchester (St Botolphs, North Station, East and North Colchester and the Garrison), Ipswich Waterfront and Village, Felixstowe (including measures to address its falling status as a resort), Harwich, Clacton. Jaywick and smaller scale projects elsewhere, with a focus on employment diversification and other social aims as well as physical renewal.” 2.64 HG3 – Transport Infrastructure “Priorities for transport in the sub-region should focus on the urban centres of Colchester and Ipswich and on the strategic infrastructure and services to facilitate access to and from the Haven Ports”. 2.65 HG4 – Implementation and Delivery “The Haven Gateway Partnership, its partners and other agencies should work to ensure:
appropriate guidance and co-ordination is available to ensure that Local Development Documents for Haven Gateway make complementary contributions towards meeting the objectives of the RSS, with joint working where appropriate; and
implementation and delivery bodies have appropriate strategies and resources to achieve the objectives in the overall vision for the area in HG1 and detailed in the other Haven Gateway policies.” Haven Gateway Integrated Development Programme, 2008 2.66 The Haven Gateway Partnership was established in 2001 and brings together leading private sector companies, including BT, Hutchinson Ports (UK) and Associated British Ports, with district and county council representatives from across the sub-region. The partners work together to provide a framework through which partners can work together to promote economic opportunities and secure the future prosperity of the area. 2.67 The document identifies a number of “Investment Packages” which, it suggests, public monies should support. One of these is the Haven Gateway Coastal Towns Regeneration package. The document identifies the following priority actions for the Tendring towns of Harwich, Clacton, Walton and Jaywick:
“Establish a stronger all-year economic base, reducing the historic overdependence on the visitor economy;
Increase the range and type of employment opportunities with higher quality full- time employment;
Encourage investment;
Ensure housing and employment targets are achieved, even within the unfavourable economic climate.” 2.68 Specific to Tendring, the following specific projects are listed:

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Harwich – phase 1 of the Harwich Masterplan will be implemented in 2008/09 and phases 2 and 3 are envisaged for completion over the next ten years. Significant improvements include the creation of more extensive attractive waterfront pedestrian areas and the mixed –use development of three important sites.
Clacton – A 5-year programme of investment is being developed, based around key sites already identified. Discussions are under way with landowners about land assembly or joint investment projects.
Jaywick – The Grasslands and Brocklands area is the most deprived area in the East of England, characterised by homes that were originally intended for holiday use and not year-round occupancy. The Jaywick Strategic Leadership Group has been established and a draft prospectus sets out the issues and opportunities.
Walton – Masterplanning consultants were appointed in March 2009. 2.69 An updated HGP Delivery Plan is currently being prepared, which recognises that substantial investment is required in order to realise the ‘Vision’. Although the vast majority of investment will need to be derived from the private sector, the Delivery Plan includes several infrastructure projects which are relevant to economic development and regeneration projects and opportunities in Tendring. 2.70 Related projects include:
Spatial Package 4: East Colchester (focusing on the Colchester Hythe and University, which lies close to the District boundary)
Spatial Package 6: Haven Gateway Coastal Towns Regeneration
Thematic Package 1: Transport 2.71 The Council through its future economic development strategy and associated spatial plan should seek to place itself in a strong position to benefit from above and succeeding Delivery Plan initiatives, providing the related planning policy basis is put in place through the LDF process. This is considered in the recommended strategy section below. TDC Adopted Local Plan 2007 (Economic Development Section) 2.72 The Council’s Local Plan has recently been adopted (Dec 07) and provides planning guidance for the period up to 2011. Chapters 1 to 7 contain policies on a number of themes, and chapters 8 to 13 deal with specific community issues. It is relevant to quote an extract from Policy QL1, the spatial strategy for Tendring: “ Most new development will therefore be concentrated at the larger urban areas of Clacton and Harwich, where accessibility to employment, shops, and other facilities and services is maximised, and there is a choice of means of transport. These towns also contain the largest supply of previously developed land, for use in general preference to Greenfield sites”. 2.73 Policy QL2 notes that all new development proposals should be located and designed to avoid reliance on the use of the private car, and promote travel choice, other than in exceptional circumstances. 2.74 Policy QL4 sets the context for the allocation of employment land:

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“To enable economic growth to occur, an adequate supply of land for employment generating uses falling within Use Classes B1[(b) and (c)], B2 and B8 will be maintained. Approximately 59 hectares of development land is identified for employment purposes”. 2.75 Policy QL5 allocates two strategic employment sites – Bathside Bay (122 hectares) as a port extension and Land East of Pond Hall Farm (27 hectares) as a business park for storage, distribution and industrial uses. Policies QL 6 and 7 promote regeneration areas in urban and rural locations. 2.76 Chapter 3 is the most relevant to this Study, and is entitled “Strengthening the Economy and Promoting Regeneration”. 2.77 New non-strategic employment sites are identified in policy ER1 – 31 hectares in total. Policy ER3 seeks to protect existing employment uses and site allocations for their designated use, which primarily fall within Class B uses. 2.78 However, the Local Plan allows for a broad definition and interpretation of the meaning of ‘employment’ uses and also some diversification and flexibility is built into policy too. Essentially, there is a presumption in favour of retaining a site which is currently in or allocated for an ‘employment’ use unless applicants can demonstrate that such uses are no longer suitable or viable for employment use purposes. 2.79 In short, the Local Plan allocates a range of large and small employment sites for employment generating uses. These are supported by policies which allow for diversification under certain circumstances. 2.80 The employment land allocations are predominantly located at Clacton and Harwich, the two largest centres within the District. The main strategic employment sites are located at Harwich, essentially linked with approved major Port expansion at Bathside Bay. A further strategic employment site was identified at Frating in the draft version of the Local Plan. However, the Local Plan Inquiry Inspector deleted the allocation on sustainability grounds. 2.81 The current Local Plan does not identify any significant development opportunities in the west of the District, near to the sub regional Town of Colchester. The economic development implications of the Local Plan’s employment land policies are considered further in the scenario section below. Colchester Borough CouncilCouncil:: Local Development FrameworkFramework Core Strategy (October 2008) 2.82 As Tendring District physically abuts the boundary of Colchester Borough including the eastern edge of the built up part of the sub regional town of Colchester itself, it is also prudent to take account of the neighboring Authority’s spatial planning strategy. 2.83 Colchester Borough Council’s (CBC’s) Core Strategy was adopted in October 2008 following an Examination in Public earlier last year. Relevant to Tendring’s economic development and planning policy issues is the overall spatial strategy for the Borough and employment land and job targets.

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2.84 The Core Strategy includes an ‘East Growth Area’ centred on the Hythe regeneration area and ‘Urban Gateway’ The University of Essex whose campus abuts the District boundary together with 36,000 sqm of committed Class B1 office/business floorspace, also falls within the Core Strategy’s designated ‘Eastern Growth Area’. Transportation improvements which link to Tendring are also visualised in this area too as part of an improved ‘Transit Corridor’ along the A133 principal route. 2.85 In relation to meeting the Borough’s allocated RSS14 target of circa 14,200 jobs, the Core Strategy acknowledges that in addition to the 36,000sqm of Class B1 floorspace committed at the University of Essex campus, a further 38,000 and 36,500 of unimplemented Class B1 floorspace is committed at North Colchester and Stanway (to the west of Colchester urban area respectively). The Plan goes on to explain that further Class B1 floorspace is to be directed to Town Centre locations where a further 40,000 sqm of floorspace is proposed. 2.86 Consequently, the level of committed Class B1 floorspace within and on the edge of Colchester Town is extensive. This significant pipeline employment land supply is likely to be implemented over a long term period, which is also likely to extend well beyond the plan period of 2021. New floorspace will compete with Tendring’s offer, although any employment development of a strategic scale in the ‘East Growth Area’ could also create economic development opportunities within west Tendring if land within this part of the District is identified for potential growth and development. TDC Community Strategy 2.87 The Tendring Local Strategic Partnership has prepared a Community Strategy entitled “Tendring Together”. The document looks ahead to what the District could be like in 2016 through the actions of the key organisations represented on the LSP working together. To quote from the document: “community planning involves a joined-up approach to the so-called “wicked issues” across the District such as crime, health, the environment and deprivation, which no one organisation can solve on its own”. Its six strategic themes are Health, Economic Development, Children and Young People, Crime and Disorder, Deprivation and Environment. 2.88 The LSP’s vision for Tendring is relevant to the work of this document. For example it foresees that “by 2016 Tendring will have a thriving and prosperous economy”. It notes the following economic development objectives:
More support for existing businesses
Strategic investment in Harwich and Bathside Bay
Implementing the Harwich Masterplan
Improving the Leisure and Tourism offer – good sports facilities, attractive resorts, marine heritage and unspoilt countryside
Greater rural diversification
Raising the skills of the workforce. 2.89 Performance measures and targets are set out in order to assess progress. 2.90 The LSP record the following key findings on the economic well being of the District, and these are relevant to the current exercise:

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Latest figures show that Tendring has a higher than average economically inactive residents from a regional perspective and lower than average numbers wanting a job, particularly females.
Professional and management occupations are significantly underrepresented in the workforce – 16% below the regional average. The deficit is offset by larger representation in administration an skilled trades, services and sales operations and plant operatives.
High level qualifications are 13% below the regional average and no qualifications 10% above the regional average.
The District has over two thirds of its businesses employing less than 5 staff.
Gross weekly pay rates are significantly below the regional average - £60 less for a full time worker.
The ratio of jobs to working age population is 20% below the region and nationally.
Tendring is in the 29% of most deprived areas in the country with significant pockets of deprivation (in the worst 3% nationally) in Jaywick and around Clacton town centre.
14% of the population live in the most deprived Super Output Areas in the country.
In the family of similar authorities Tendring has the highest rates of working age population claiming key benefits. 2.91 The Sustainable Community Strategy is due to be updated in 2009. TDC Regeneration Statement 20062006----20212021 2.92 The document’s purpose is to identify the key issues, opportunities and higher level outcomes that the District will seek to ensure are delivered in the District over the next 15 years, reflecting the Council’s policy of identifiying regeneration as its number one corporate priority. 2.93 The Regeneration Strategy draws upon the range of different strategies that have been created by various bodies which have an impact upon the Tendring area. From this “plethora of strategies” it seeks to identify the key issues and priorities. 2.94 The key issues are:
Social Exclusion/Inclusion – Tendring has the highest local concentration of deprivation in Essex, with parts of Golf Green ranking the worst in the East of England region and in the top 1% nationally in the Index of Multiple Deprivation. Tendring is the weakest District in the region in terms of economic performance and high deprivation, which is not helped by low levels of income which are 26% below the regional average.
Neighbourhood Management – Neighbourhood Management Business Plan has been adopted. This includes Jaywick and West Clacton.
Inward Investment – Tendring is seen as an ideal location for UK and Europe based trading, given the proximity to the Haven Ports, Lodon, and Stansted airport. It is important to ensure that sites are available that meet the needs of the investor and are commercially viable. The Bathside Bay development is seen as a key investment, which will make the A120 corridor more attractive to developers.

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Business Support – retention and growth – Like Essex as a whole, Tendring has a large number of companies each employing relatively few staff. Some 2310 out of a total number of 3060 employ less than 5 staff. The number of VAT registerable companies in Tendring is significantly below the sub-regional average.
Tourism – Despite the changes in holiday patterns, the District still attracts large numbers of day and staying visitors. The challenge is to halt the long term decline of this sector, which still provides worthwhile numbers of employment opportunities.
Education, Training and Workforce Skills - 38% of the current working population has no formal qualifications and only 6.5% have achieved NVQ level 3. In both instances Tendring has the poorest record in Essex and in terms of the former the highest level in the Eastern Region. Higher Education is well served by the University of Essex, the Anglia Ruskin University, and the growing University Campus for Suffolk, although it is noted that there are surpisingly few links between the University of Essex and Tendring businesses. The Colchester Institute provides vocational courses, and has outreach posts in Clacton and Dovercourt.
Transport and Infrastructure – Harwich International Port is the second largest ro-ro (roll-on, roll-off) port in the UK and handles over 1 million passengers each year, with much growth being experienced in recent years in trade with the Netherlands. Improvements to main transport routes will follow on from the Bathside Bay development. Transport links between the north and south of the District are poor and inhibit synergies building up between the local economies
Quality of Development Opportunities – The Statement notes that there is a need to identify major strategic sites along the A120 corridor to service the international gateway, as well as supporting the rural economy with opportunities for diversification. Good quality leisure and retail development opportunities are needed. Town centres need revitalising and masterplans are necessary for this work.
Rural Issues – as in other parts of the country there has been a decline in farming incomes, village facilities and an outward migration of younger people. Rural diversification is seen as the key, with new businesses within redundant buildings and rural tourism projects holding out significant potential. Affordable housing and good transport links are necessary if the viability of villages is to be maintained.
Housing – Housing plays a key role in issues relating to social inclusion and community cohesion. It is also a critical driver in delivering economic regeneration both in terms of its potential direct financial contribution to the economy and by acting as ‘enabling’ developments.
Haven Gateway – the Haven Gateway Partnership was formed in 2001 and has achieved two of its major objectives, namely to be recognised as a major area of potential growth in the Eastern Region, and to be formally recognised in policy terms. The partnership has led to closer collaboration between the public and private sectors, developing synergies between the workings of all parties. The Statement warns of a danger of major growth focusing in Colchester and Ipswich with Tendring becoming a dormitory rural hinterland. This would directly contradict

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the need to sustain the viability of the coastal towns and put increasing pressures on issues such as public transport.
Quality of Life – the quality of life for residents of an area is a complex mix of services and facilities which impinge upon their daily life whether it be work or pleasure. It is an aggregate of all of the other issues that have been identified. 2.95 The Statement then goes on to identify priorities for action by all of the various parties at work in the area:
To address the root causes and implications associated with pockets of deprivation particularly in Jaywick and West Clacton.
To deliver sustainable high quality solutions to address the growth and regeneration agenda.
To maximise the benefits and mange the impacts of the Harwich International gateway.
To secure a skilled workforce with the provision of high quality education and workforce development.
To ensure the sub regional agenda, now and in the future, delivers projects and programmes relevant to the needs of Tendring.
To ensure that appropriate and integrated transport solutions are delivered 2.96 The Statement contains a useful and extensive Audit of Characteristics, in its annex A. It is too lengthy to repeat here but it does give the reader a thorough appreciation of the nature of the District. 2.97 The Statement is shortly to be reviewed, in the light of the changes being made to other policy documents. Tendring Regeneration Ltd (“INTend”) Delivery Plan, 2008 2.98 Tendring Regeneration Ltd is a company established by Tendring DC in April 2008. It is charged with giving a new impetus to making changes in the future physical, economic, social and environmental regeneration of the District. The company summarises its role as being about delivery. 2.99 The company has a 21-head work programme spread across the District and a budget of £1.2 m, spread over 4 years. Inasmuch as it can intervene directly to resolve barriers to development, INTend should become a powerful new tool in the armoury for regeneration. Essex Local Transport Plan (LTP) 2006/2011 2.100 The LTP includes a number of proposals for the Colchester and Haven Gateway arera, which seek to improve accessibility generally in support of growth and regeneration. The related Delivery Programme for the area refers to a Regeneration project at Jaywick, whereas the remaining projects are located outside of the District. 2.101 However, the LTP does refer to other strategic projects to be programmed in future LTPs, which will have direct and indirect impacts on the economic development potential of Tendring. These are:
A120 Braintree to A12 improvements - to be undertaken by the Highways Agency.

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A120 Hare Green to Harwich – to improve access to the port and regeneration areas.
A12 widening Chelmsford to Colchester – identified as part of the London to Ipswich Multi Modal Study (LOIS MMS).
A12 improvements Colchester to Ipswich - identified as part of LOIS MMS.
Felixstowe to Nuneaton phase 2 – rail line gauge enhancement. 2.102 If implemented, these strategic transport infrastructure improvements would play an important part in improving the accessibility and competitiveness of Tendring as a location for inward investment and further employment generating development. Haven Gateway Employment Land Study 222 2.103 The Haven Gateway Employment Land Study suggests that employment land issues in Tendring are more likely to be qualitative than quantitative. 2.104 A purely quantitative analysis suggests that both the sub-region and the district have enough employment land to meet their future needs. In fact, it points to an over-supply of 17.25 ha in Tendring which it identifies for release. 2.105 This is due to the fact that Tendring has substantial land bank. In fact, the largest quantities of land supply in the Haven Gateway are located in Tendring and Suffolk Coastal (due to Felixstowe and Harwich). 2.106 However, whilst the quantitative analysis suggests there is no need for new allocations, the study points out that “new allocations may be required to add value to the employment land supply offer in key locations. This could be the case in Ipswich and in Tendring and Colchester where there are limited quality sites.” In fact, Tendring records the second highest proportion of “poor quality” land (17% of the total) and the second lowest proportion of “good quality” land (around 5-7%). 2.107 The qualitative and use mismatch is highlighted by the level of vacant space in the district. At the time of the study, there were 68,200 sqm of vacant B floorspace, 41,600 of which were B8. 2.108 The employment forecasts used in the study suggest that the main drivers of employment growth will be Health and Education, then Other Business Services, Distribution, Retail and Other Services. As a result, the district will need to consider the distribution of space across B and non-B uses to meet the demand of businesses. 2.109 The study points out that quality will be also crucial to Tendring’s ability to deliver future employment growth because of the difficulty in attracting new firms as interest is focused on Colchester and Ipswich. 2.110 A range of interventions are suggested to help support the development process and bring forward office and industrial development projects. They include:
“funding development costs and / or incentives for key sites;
supporting strategic infrastructure projects to improve accessibility;

2 2005

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site infrastructure works;
decontamination measures;
development of briefs and masterplans for key sites;
marketing and promotion at the regional level; and
consideration to mixed-use, as a means of generating additional private sector investment, which can be used as a form of cross-subsidy to overcome constraints”.

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Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

333 SOCIO ECONOMIC BASELBASELINEINE

Introduction

3.1 This chapter briefly addresses four main issues:
The productivity (competitiveness, value added) of Tendring’s economy
Its employment growth
The economic well being of its residents
The sustainability of their work journeys 3.2 We aim to discuss Tendring’s performance and prospects in these different dimensions, identify opportunities for doing better and consider how employment land can contribute. 3.3 Below, the next two sections respectively discuss the workplace economy – the businesses and jobs located in Tendring – and the resident labour force – the workers who live in the district. These two analyses are different because many people travel to work beyond their district boundaries. We go on to consider these travel-to-work flows. 3.4 Where data allows, the analysis splits Tendring into seven planning’ sub-areas’ (see Figure 3.1). These sub areas are based on wards where the lowest geographical level data is available. These are slightly different to the seven sub-areas being used by the local authority for the purposes of its Core Strategy Spatial Portrait and that were used in the 2008 Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), which are based on parishes. Parish level data is not provided at sufficient detail for the purposes of this analysis but the results are generally comparable with the findings of the SHMA and other research undertaken using the local authority’s preferred sub-areas because the differences in the two approaches are few and mainly affect areas that are rural in their nature and sparsely populated. The sub-areas used in the following analysis are:
Clacton, which includes Clacton on Sea/ Little Clacton, Jaywick, St Osyth and Weeley
Frinton, which includes Frinton and Walton, Kirby le Soken, Great Holland and Thorpe le Soken
Harwich,which includes Harwich and Great Oakley
Manningtree which includes Wix, Bradfield/Bradfield Heath, Mistley and Manningtree
Brighlingsea which includes Arlesford and Brighlingsea
Mid Tendring which includes Great Bentley
West Tendring which includes Elmstead Market, Thorrington and Colchester fringe areas. 3.5 A map showing the differences in the planning sub area definitions from those used in the analysis is shown in Appendix 1.

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Figure 333.3...1111 Tendring Planning SubSub----AreasAreas

Source: RTP

3.6 We benchmark Tendring against the national economy, the East of England region and the other districts that make up the Haven Gateway - Colchester, Ipswich, Babergh, Mid Suffolk and Suffolk Coastal.

Workplace eeeconomyeconomy

3.7 As mentioned above, we aim to assess Tendring’s performance and prospects from two perspectives: employment growth and productivity (competitiveness). On productivity, there are no statistics for districts or smaller area so we use indirect indicators, such as earnings and the size of high-value, high-knowledge sectors. Industrial ssstructurestructure 3.8 Figure 3.2 shows the structure of the economy of Tendring in 2006.

Roger Tym & Partners with Lawson Planning Partnership, LSH and Newman Commercial May 2009 28 Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

Figure 333.3...2222 Broad Employment Structure, 2006

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

n h a g t o ree e ng s t t GB in rwic gs dring drin Ea a lin n Clacton Fr t H nning Ten a righ M B Mid Tendri West Te

Primary & Utilities Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Retailing Hotel & Retsaurant Transport & Comms Finance Other FBS Public Admin Health & Education Other Serv

Source Annual Business Inquiry

3.9 In terms of broad structure, Tendring differs from the regional and national economies in two ways:
The district has a high number of jobs in health and education which accounts for 27% of all jobs compared to 21% nationally. This is due to Clacton, Frinton, Manningtree and Brightlingsea where this sector accounts for almost a third of all jobs.
Employment in Other Financial Business Services is exceptionally low, accounting for only 8% of all jobs. This is approximately half the regional and national average. Growing and hhhighhigh vvvaluevalue sssectorssectors 3.10 To examine whether the industrial structure in Tendring is conducive to growth we identify high-value and growth sectors in the national economy and establish whether they are well represented in the local economy. 3.11 Figure 3.3 plots national gross weekly earnings for each economic sector against the sectors’ recent national growth rate (1998-2005). The analysis uses a finer-grained classification than the last section, with smaller, more narrowly defined sectors.

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Figure 333.3...3333 Earnings and Employment Growth, GB 19981998----20052005

Low Earnings, 60% High Earnings Employment Growth Employment Growth

Real Est Act 40% Education Health & Social Hotel & Rest IT Act Other Bus Act Other Ser 20%

Transport Retail Public Admin Const R & D Rent of Mach Comms 0% Bank & Ins

0 100 200 300 400Wholesale 500 600 700 800

Agriculture Print & Pub Mfg nes Trans Eq -20% Chem & Min Utilities Met & Eng Min & Quarry Mfg food, textiles & wood Electronics

GB Employment Growth (%) -40%

Fishing -60%

-80% High Earnings, Low Earnings, GB Gross Weekly Earnings (£) Employment Decline Employment Decline

Source Annual Business Inquiry and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

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3.12 Sectors above the horizontal axis are those that gained employment between 1998 and 2005. The higher the relevant point is up the axis, the faster the growth has been over the seven-year period. These growing sectors can be subdivided into two groups:
The north-east quadrant of the chart shows sectors that generate above-average earnings, and so are high-value as well as high-growth. The further to the right the point is located, the higher the earnings. The quadrant is dominated by office- related activities such as Computing and Related Services, Research & Development, Other Business Activities, Real Estate, Public Administration, and Banking & Insurance. There are also some industrial and warehousing-related activities such as Construction and Transport & Communications.
In the north-west quadrant are sectors which have been growing, but produce low earnings. Most of them are consumer and public services for which change is dependent on change in the local population, like Retail, Education, and Health. 3.13 Below the horizontal axis are sectors that have lost jobs nationally. As expected, most of these sectors are within Manufacturing and Utilities. Many are clustered in the south- east quadrant showing that, although losing jobs, these industrial activities are still high-value sectors. 3.14 The south west quadrant contains sectors that are both declining and low-value. These sectors comprise Agriculture, Fishing and two large, light manufacturing sectors, Food, Textiles and Wood and Other Manufacturing 3. 3.15 An important finding from this table is that high value and growth opportunities are not the same. Some of the fastest-growing sectors in the national economy are consumer (e.g. retail) and public services, which also produce some of the lowest wages. If an area is aiming for fast employment growth, it may be well advised to encourage these activities, but it may have to accept that many of the new jobs are relatively low-paid. 3.16 Of the different sectors that make up the economy, it may be considered that policy should particularly encourage those in the north-east sector of Figure 3.3 because they promise to generate both new jobs and high earnings. Below, in Table 3.1, we assess how well-represented these sectors are in Tendring, using location quotients (LQs).

3 ‘Other Manufacturing’ is called ‘Manufacturing nes’ in the figure, ‘nes’ standing for ‘not elsewhere classified’

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Table 333.3...1111 Growing and HighHigh----ValueValue Sectors, Tendring 2005

Sectors No of Jobs LQLQLQ

Transport 2,457 1.7 Construction 1,862 1.1 Communication 367 0.6 Real Estate Activities 429 0.7 Computer & Related 340 0.5 R & D 7 0.0 Business Services 1,880 0.4 Public Admin 1,211 0.6

Source Annual Business Inquiry, 2005

3.17 The LQ measures how well-represented a sector is in an area, compared to the national economy. It equals the sector’s share of the area’s total employment divided by the sector’s share of Great Britain’s employment. An LQ equal to 1 indicates that the sector’s representation in the area is average. If the LQ is above 1, the sector is over-represented in the area; if it is lower than 1, the sector is under-represented in the area. 3.18 In general the high value growing sectors are poorly represented in Tendring. Of the nine sectors in the north east quadrant of the chart, only one has a LQ greater than 1. Construction is misleading as there are no major construction employers in the area, so this high employment is only short term as workers are likely to be temporary and footloose. In contrast, the high LQ in transport is concentrated in Harwich and is due to the activities of the port. Knowledge iiindustriesindustries 3.19 Employment in knowledge-based sectors is recognised as a key driver of productivity and competitiveness. The Government White Paper, Our Competitive Future: Building the Knowledge Economy (DTI, 1999), states: “In a knowledge-driven economy….the generation and exploitation of knowledge has come to play the predominant part in the creation of wealth. Companies in countries with higher labour costs, such as the UK, therefore have to innovate and adapt continuously to retain their competitive edge.” 3.20 The knowledge industries tend to have high and fast-growing productivity and also contribute to higher productivity in the industries they serve, by spreading technical progress and efficient business methods. The size of these industries therefore, may be an indicator of future as well as current competitiveness. But it is not necessarily an indicator of employment growth: rising productivity may translate into fewer jobs.

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Figure 333.3...4444 KnowledgeKnowledge----BasedBased Employment as % of Total Employment 2006

High Tech Manu FBS Computing Media Communication 20%

18%

16% 14%

12%

10%

8% 6%

4% %% KnowledgeKnowledge EmploymentEmployment %% KnowledgeKnowledge EmploymentEmployment 2%

0%

h st n ing c ai r astal wi Ea it hester o Br c Ips t Tend Babergh Mid Suffolk Col rea G Suffolk C Source Annual Business Inquiry, 2006

3.21 As shown in Figure 3.4, knowledge-based employment in Tendring accounts for just 7% of total employment, lower than other neighbouring districts and around half the regional and national average. 3.22 If the knowledge-based sectors are split into the five sectors - Hi Tech Manufacturing, Financial and Business Services (FBS), Communications, Media and Computing - almost everywhere, the bulk of knowledge-based jobs are in FBS. The one exception is Suffolk Coastal, where much knowledge-based employment is in communication, mainly due to the BT establishment based at Martlesham Heath. Workplace eeearningsearnings 3.23 Figure 3.5 shows the gross weekly earnings across the Haven Gateway in 2007.

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Figure 333.3...5555 Gross Weekly Earnings, 2007

Source Annual Survey of Hours an d Earnings, 2007

3.24 Tendring’s gross workplace earnings (2007) are £340, lower than the regional and national average of £430 and £450 respectively. Indeed, it is lower than all the neighbouring districts in the Haven Gateway. Employment ccchange 3.25 Tendring’s total of employees in employment grew by 5,800 jobs (19%) between 1998 and 2006 . This is approximately double the regional and national average and above other neighbouring economies. Much of this employment growth is due to population related activities suc h as Retail and Health and Education, -which as noted earlier – although are fast growing sectors are also low paying. 3.26 Figure 3.6 and Figure 3.7 compares Tendring’s employment timeline from 1998 to 2006 with other benchmark economies. Tendring’s time line shows a constant upward trend, whereas other economies have encountered cycl ical troughs and declines.

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Figure 333.3...6666 Employment Change, Tendring, Region and GB, 19961996----20062006

125 Tendring East GB

120

115

110

105 Index = 1998 Jobs 1998 =Index

100

95

90 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Source Annual Business Survey and Annual Employment Survey Rescaled

Figure 333.3...7777 Employment Change, Tendring and Neighbouring DistriDistricts,cts, 19961996----20062006

125

120

115

110

105

Index = 1998 Jobs 1998 Index = 100

95

90

85 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Tendring Babergh Colchester Ipswich Mid Suffolk Suffolk Coastal

Source Annual Business Survey and Annual Employment Survey Rescaled

Roger Tym & Partners with Lawson Planning Partnership, LSH and Newman Commercial May 2009 35 Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

Non BB----classclass uses 3.27 In view of their significance in the local economy and future growth prospects we have included a number of non B-use sectors in our analysis. They include: tourism & leisure, retail, health and education. Tourism 3.28 Tourism and leisure is identified at regional and local level as a sector of significance for the economic development of Tendring. As we see in the rest of this section, it is a major employer in the district and it is also a powerful tool for social and physical regeneration by:
Addressing social deprivation (in coastal resorts and rural areas) by providing a large number of low skills jobs for local residents. In fact the 2002 Tourism Study4 states that “for most of the coast, it is likely that tourism is the only viable option for economic development.” We do not necessarily agree with this statement but it does illustrate the point about its benefits.
Creating an attractive image of the district, not only as a place to visit but also as a place to invest, do business and live.
Acting as a catalyst for environmental/public realm improvements which benefit local residents and improve quality of life. 3.29 Our analysis combines a review of existing research and discussions with a number of stakeholders involved in the sector. The purpose of this study is not to conduct a new survey of tourism activity in Tendring but to grasp the issues that affect land requirements and future growth in the sector. This will inform our forecasting and scenario analysis in Chapter 6.

Location of tourism activity 3.30 Tourism in Tendring is concentrated along the coast – as illustrated by Figure 3.8 below - and chiefly in the south of the district, with Clacton as the main resort and the main destination for day trips. 3.31 The other principal tourist areas are Walton-on-the-Naze, important for recreational sailing and informal countryside recreation, St. Osyth/Point Clear and Dovercourt. In addition, Harwich is an important gateway with the potential for a large scale marine development. However, the 2002 Tourism Study found that its maritime heritage is under-exploited.

4 Tendring District Council, TendringDistrict Replacement Local Plan: Tourism Study, 2002

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Figure 333.3...8888:: Trips by location

28%

65% 7%

urban visits countryside visits coastal visits

Source: Economic Impact Study – Tendring 2007 3.32 The rural profile of the rest of the district also presents opportunities for ‘green’ tourism. In the north of the district, Manningtree and the banks of the Stour estuary are part of the Dedham Vale Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty which is being promoted by a cross-district partnership. There is potential for birdwatching (also true for coastal resorts), cycling and walking. However there are challenges to realising this green tourism potential. The Harwich to Hull Cycle Route and North Sea Cycle Route for instance could be further promoted for cyclists. Generally, cycling and walking networks remain poor in the district compared to other parts of the country. Furthermore, the lack of accommodation and infrastructure is a constraint in rural areas away from the coast, which may limit tourism appeal. Visitor profile 3.33 Data from the 2002 Tourism Study is dated (being from 1998) but our discussion with Council officers has confirmed some enduring features. 3.34 The Study provides a broad market segmentation of visitor type by holiday destination and purpose for Essex which applies well to Tendring. This is shown in Table 3.2. It should be noted that ‘Visits from relatives’ is now a market segment in its own right and not just part of day visits. Moreover, this market segment covers rural areas and the coast and, for Tendring, is very significant.

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Table 3.2 Types of holiday activity in Essex

Market Segment The Coast Rural Essex

Day visitors, friends & Resort visits, visits to Little demand relatives coastal towns Short break visitors Traditional seaside breaks Get-away from it breaks Overseas visitors Little demand Little demand Special interests Birdwatchers Cycling, walking, boating & history Visitors to resorts Traditional day and staying Not relevant visits Business tourists Demand in Harwich Not relevant Transit tourists Little demand likely Stop-overs Source: Tendring Tourism Study, 2002

3.35 According to the Study, almost all visitors travelled to the district independently as opposed to being part of an organised group. Around 80% of them came from London and elsewhere in the East of England. Visitors were most satisfied with open spaces and least satisfied with parking and shops. 3.36 Most tourists to the district come for a holiday (69% of all trips) followed by visits to friends and relatives (17%) and business trips (13%) 5. It is worth noting however that spend from friends and relatives is significantly higher than from holidaymakers, accounting for 32% of all tourism spend. 3.37 In line with national trends, holidaymakers/tourists increasingly come for short-breaks and day trips rather than choosing Tendring as a destination for their main holiday of the year. Those who do stay on holidays mostly come to the caravan parks, with the majority of caravans being owner-occupied. Indeed, accommodation in static vans/holiday centres accounted for 41% of visitor nights in 2007 6. Staying with friends and relatives was the second most popular option (29%).

Economic impact of tourism in Tendring 3.38 As mentioned earlier, tourism is a major provider of employment and income for the district through the use of the various facilities available and the money visitors spend in the local area. A study undertaken by East of England Tourism for the Council in 2007 modelled the economic impact of touristic activity in the district. The findings are summarised in Figure 3.9 below.

5 East of England Tourism, Economic Impact of Tourism – Tendring, 2007 6 ibid

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Figure 333.3...9999 Modelled 2007 economic impact of tourism in TendrinTendringg

Total no. of trips (day & staying) 3,583 ,400

Total tourism value (visitor and induced spend) £275,267 ,250

Total actual tourism related employment 6,170

Proportion of all employment in the district 16 .7% Source: Economic impact of tourism, 2007

3.39 The model estimated that tourism-related activity in Tendring accounted for almost 17% of employment and generated £275m in 2007. 3.40 The 2007 Annual Business Inquiry allows us to explore the distribution of employment across tourism and leisure activities in Tendring. This uses a narrower definition of the sector 7 than in the Economic Impact of Tourism study, so it is not directly comparable. However, it confirms that tourism and leisure is a comparatively larger sector in Tendring than in the rest of the region, with these sectors accounting for 11% of total employment compared to 8% in the East of England as a whole. 3.41 A more refined sectoral analysis, using location quotients 8, allows us a closer look at the key features of employment in tourism and leisure in Tendring:
13% of the sector’s employment was at camp sites/caravan parks. This has a 15.9 location quotient compared to England (with an LQ of 1) where this sector accounts for 0.8% of employment in tourism and leisure.
Other activities with location quotients above 1 are: Gambling and betting activities; Operation of sports arenas and stadium; and, to a lesser extent, Restaurants.
Sectors of note in which employment in Tendring is weak are: Hotels, Catering, Travel agencies, and Other Sporting Activities.

7 It includes the following 4 digit SICs: 5510 (Hotels), 5521 (Youth Hostels), 5522 (Camping sites including caravan parks), 5523 (Other provision of lodgings), 5530 (Restaurants), 5540 (Bars), 5551 (Canteens), 5552 (Catering), 6330 (Travel agencies), 9232 (Operation of arts facilities), 9233 (Amusement parks), 9234 (Other entertainment activities), 9252 (Museums), 9253 (Botanical gardens and zoos), 9261 (Operation of sport arenas and stadiums), 9262 (Other sporting activities), 9271 (Gambling and betting activities), 9272 (Other recreational activities) 8 A description of location quotients is included earlier in this chapter

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Opportunities and challenges Accommodation 3.42 Serviced accommodation is in short supply and low grade. This constrains the opportunity to attract the expanding short-breaks, conference, education and training markets, as well as overseas tourists and groups. The district needs to increase both quality and quantity of such supply. 3.43 The importance of developing quality assurance schemes is recognised. As stated in the East of England Tourism Business Plan: “Consumer research confirms the increasing importance of quality assurance to the overall visitor experience and EET is committed to provide tools and guidance in encouraging businesses to invest in this area.” 3.44 There is still considerable progress to be made in this area however, as some local businesses tend to be reluctant to join in. Enhance employment potential 3.45 As we will see in more detail in the econometric forecast analysis, tourism is expected to continue to be a major source of employment in the district and it has implications for the labour market. Whilst in absolute numbers, tourism activities provide numerous jobs, it is mostly seasonal work, which explains in part some of the high unemployment rates observed in coastal resorts. It is also a sector which tends to offer low skilled jobs – which is an opportunity for local residents – but progression routes can be limited. As the 2002 Tourism Strategy states: “The tourism industry locally continues to express concern regarding the difficulty of recruiting sufficient and suitable staff at the beginning of each season. There are also issues regarding the quality of employment provided and the ability to train staff which tourism providers considered difficult to justify within the seasonal environment.” 9 3.46 People1st - the Sector Skills Council for Hospitality, Leisure, Travel and Tourism - produced a regional profile in March 2006, exploring the skills needs of employers. It found that:
33% of establishments in the East of England have vacancies; and 19% report hard-to-fill vacancies compared to 11% at the national level.
The largest number of vacancies were for: kitchen and catering assistants, bar staff, chefs, cooks, waiters and waitresses.
Hard-to-fill vacancies are mostly due to skills shortages which are more acute in the region than nationally. 3.47 Addressing these issues will be key in order to maximise regeneration benefits from tourism for residents, especially the least skilled ones.

9 Tendring District Council, Tourism Strategy , 2002

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Trends in demand 3.48 Tourism activity has changed over the past 10 – 20 years and will continue to do so, both in the demographic profile of those travelling and in how they expect to spend their free time. Key trends that Tendring should build on include:
A continued increase in the number of day trips and short breaks. This seems to have benefited towns and cities more than the countryside and the seaside.
The desire for higher quality accommodation.
A change in the profile and requirements of tourists. They will become more affluent, more likely to travel alone and independently, seek experiences which are easy to research and book and which satisfy individual needs rather than “packaged”. 3.49 Attractions thought to continue to generate interests for day trips are 10 :
Family entertainment centres;
Heritage Lottery, Millennium Fund and European Regional Development Fund funded visitor attractions. These range from infrastructure projects through community programmes to events such as festivals and as such, benefit local residents as well as visitors. Examples in the East of England include the Marston Vale Millennium Country Park, the National Cycle Network or a new lock at Great Cornard in Suffolk. There are numerous examples throughout the region which can be found on http://www.millennium.gov.uk/index.html and http://www.hlf.org.uk/English/ ;
Large edge-of-town leisure centres;
Town and city centres;
Beaches, events and festivals. 3.50 The 2002 Tourism Study suggests there could be fall in the demand for countryside visits unless public policy measures are taken to address the issues. This is particularly relevant to an area such as Tendring. Retail 3.51 Retail provision is important for the economic performance of an area as a provider of jobs, for the local amenities it provides to residents and visitors alike and as a core factor in the image of a whole district through the quality of its town centres. Tendring is a key example of how the poor image of its main town centre, Clacton, impacts on the perception of the whole district despite the presence of beautiful and well-off areas. A local shopper survey for the 2006 Retail Study 11 revealed that traffic and dirty streets were one of the key complaints of town centre shoppers. In addition the retail offer lacks some high quality anchors. This contributes to create the image of a town centre which is not as attractive as it could be and not keeping up with Colchester and Ipswich. In addition, the sometimes negative perception of Essex as a whole adds to this image problem. This is an issue that impacts on both tourism and retail activity;

10 Tendring District Council, Tourism Study , 2002 11 GVA Grimley (2006) North Essex Authorities Retail Study

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one that the Clacton Town Centre Plan hopes to address by revitalising the town centre and expanding the retail core. We look at this in more depth in Chapter 6. Location of retail activity in Tendring 3.52 The main retail centre in the district is Clacton-on-Sea, as recognised in the Local Plan by its status as a ‘Major Town Centre.’ 3.53 The other town centres are: Frinton, Harwich, Dovercourt, Brightlingsea, Manningtree and Walton-on-the-Naze. The retail offer in these towns is complemented by a number of out-of-town shopping facilities such as the Clacton Factory Outlet Village and a number of large foodstores. 3.54 Figure 3.10 below shows the respective sizes of the main town centres in Tendring. Data for Clacton-on-Sea is more recent (March 2008) whilst data from the other towns is extracted from the North Essex Retail Study and dates from 2004. Figure 333.3...10101010 Total retail floorspace in town centres (sqm)

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000 sqm 20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Source: GOAD March 2008, North Essex Retail Study 2006

3.55 Each of these centres has its own character and here we provide a quick overview of their defining features based on the consultants’ assessments in the North Essex Retail Study 2006 and a discussion with Clacton Town Centre Manager. We must point out that market profile indicators are not up-to-date and will not reflect the current economic downturn. However, the respective roles and defining characteristics of each town centre will not have changed.

3.56 Despite a poor image from the outside, Clacton town centre is in fact relatively healthy and performing well on a number of health check indicators. It has experienced an increase in rental values in recent years, yields have remained static reflecting – at very least - consistent investor confidence, retailer requirements have increased and the

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number of vacant units is well below average. There are however areas of weakness including the low presence of footwear and clothing outlets as well as the limited representation of key attractors and absence of higher order retailers in the centre. The out-of-town offer includes Brook Retail Park, four foodstores and the Factory Outlet Village. A plan is in place to rebrand the Village and ensure it complements the offer in the town centre, with car showrooms, large restaurants, etc. 3.57 Clacton also has a key role as a tourist resort. It draws 80% of its turnover from within the North Essex area (Braintree, Colchester, Maldon and Tendring) which means that the remaining 20% are due to visitors and tourists. This dual role and the reliance on visitors for retail vitality further emphasises the need for an attractive urban environment. The Council has acknowledged this in its Vision for the town centre and a study of potential investment sites is underway.

3.58 Combined, Dovercourt and Harwich is the second largest retail location in the district with about 20,000 sqm of floorspace, most of which is in Dovercourt. Although close to one another geographically, they have completely different profiles. Dovercourt performs rather well with an anchor foodstore (Fiveways, Main Road), a Somerfield on the High Street, a weekly market, a good range of convenience and comparison shops and good environmental quality. However, persisting high yields highlight a lack of investor interest in the town centre and vacancy rates are high. 3.59 Harwich on the other hand suffers from the ongoing decline in the shipping industry, the main provider of jobs in town. This has reduced the overall level of disposable income locally with a direct impact on retail activity resulting in very high vacancy rates (31% of floorspace in town centre) and poor environmental quality.

3.60 FrintonFrinton, Brightlingsea and Manningtree have similar overall profiles and roles. They are small, local, top-up shopping destinations with a strong presence of independent outlets, low vacancy rates and quality environment.

3.61 Finally, WaltonWalton----onononon----thethethethe----NazeNaze presents similar broad features to this last group but it is also a tourist destination. It offers a market, a pier, an amusement arcade, a sports centre and museum. However, as a result, it is also highly sensitive to seasonal activity and can experience high vacancy rates off season. Employment in retail 3.62 In 2007, retail provided approximately 5,300 jobs, or 15% of total employment. This proportion has remained broadly stable over the last 10 years and consistently above the regional (12%) and national (10%) averages. 3.63 The structure of retail employment in Tendring is also different to that observed at national level as illustrated in Figure 3.11 below:

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Figure 333.3...11111111 Retail employment breakdown in Tendring and EnglandEngland,, 2007

100%

90%

80%

527 : Repair of personal and household goods 70% 526 : Retail sale not in stores 60% 525 : Second-hand goods

50% 524 : Other retail sale of new goods in specialised stores 40% 523 : Pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetic and toilet articles 522 : Food, beverages and tobacco in 30% specialised stores 521 : Non-specialised stores 20%

10%

0% Tendring England

Source: ABI 2007

3.64 Retail in non-specialised stores is the largest activity both locally and nationally but in Tendring it accounts for 54% of the sector’s employment compared to 44% in England. As a consequence, most other sectors are under-represented except for second-hand and ‘repair of household goods’ shops, although they only account for 1% of retail jobs each. 3.65 In 2007, 45% of retail employment in Tendring was located in Clacton, 10-15% in Dovercourt/Harwich and 10% in Frinton. Clacton’s share of retail employment in the district is broadly in line with its share of retail floorspace. Dovercourt/Harwich on the other hand accounts for 20% of the retail floorspace compared to 10-15% of employment, possibly as a result of the high vacancy levels. 3.66 In Tendring, as in the region and the country as a whole, most retail employees are female (62%) 12 . Most also work part-time, although this proportion is higher in the district at 61%, compared to 56% nationally 13 . 3.67 SkillSmart, the Sector Skills Council for the retail sector, produced a regional profile of skills needs and labour market issues 14 . It found that:
18% of employers reported at least one vacancy; this is the highest proportion across all English regions. The East of England was in line with England however in terms of hard-to-fill vacancies.
The majority of vacancies occurred in Sales Occupations.

12 ABI, 2007 13 ABI, 2007 14 SkillSmart, Regional Background Brief: East of England, Autumn 2008

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The main reasons for ha rd-to-fill vacancies were: skills related issues, poor pay or conditions of employment (e.g. shift work) or the employer being based in a remote location.
The main skills found lacking were: written communication skills, customer handling skills, oral comm unication skills, management and problem solving skills. 3.68 It is worth noting however that the East of England compared well with the rest of the country in terms of the proportion of employers providing training for their employees. Health & Social Work 3.69 The Health & Social Work sector is important in economic terms not just as a large employer but as a provider of community amenity and therefore, ultimately, as a contributor to the local quality of life. It is also a key delivery partner for Local Area Agree ment (LAA) targets. 3.70 Primary care is provided to Tendring residents by two community hospitals (in Clacton and in Harwich), 21 GP practices as well as a range of community nursing and other allied paramedic services. The main secondary care provider is Esse x Rivers NHS Healthcare Trust and the North East Partnership Foundation Trust delivers statutory mental health services. The sector also covers other activities such as pharmacies and dentistry. Employment 3.71 In 2007, Health and Social Work was the largest em ployer in Tendring, providing almost 6,300 jobs or 17.6% of all employment. As a result of projected population growth, it is set to generate a significant number of new jobs over the next 20 years. The sector has expanded more quickly in the district over the last 10 years than in the region and the country , as shown in Figure 3.12 below. Figure 333.3...12121212 Change in employment in Health & Social Work between 1998 and 2007

Source: ABI 2007

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3.72 In 2007, there were 41% more jobs in Health & Social Work in Tendring than there were in 1998. This compares with a growth of 30% in the East of England and 26% in England as a whole. 3.73 Further analysis of the activities included in this broad sector reveals that the structure of employment in Tendring is radically different from that of the region and England. As shown in Figure 3.13, it is mostly concentrated on social work. Figure 333.3...13131313:: Employment breakdown iinn Health & Social Work

100%

90%

80%

8532 : Social work activities without 70% accommodation 8531 : Social work activities with accommodation 60% 8520 : Veterinary activities

50% 8514 : Other human health activities

40% 8513 : Dental practice activities

8512 : Medical practice activities 30%

8511 : Hospital activities 20%

10%

0% England East Tendring

Source: ABI 2007

3.74 Whilst at regional and national levels, hospitals provide the majority of employment (44% and 41% respectively), in Tendring they only account for 18% of the sector’s jobs. On the other hand, Social Work activities (both residential and non-residential) provide 58% of Health & Social Work jobs in the district. Workforce and skills 3.75 Research is not available at district level so this section is mostly based on the Skills Sector Report published by the Essex Learning and Skills Council in 2008 15 . It splits the sector into three: Health, Social Care (Adults) and Childrens Services. All categories are characterised by a mostly female workforce. Health is also characterised by an older than average and increasingly qualified workforce. 3.76 The research identifies the key drivers of change in demand for skills in these sub- sectors at national level. They are summarised in Table 3.3 below.

15 LSC Essex, Health, Social Care & Children’s Workforce, 2008

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Table 333.3...33 Drivers of change in skills requirements

HEALTH - Ageing population - Technological change and growth in ICT - Patient-centred approach rather than function-centred approach - Overseas workers - More focus on public health / prevention - Devolution of decision making to local level with changes to systems - A reduced rate of increase in public funding

SOCIAL CARE (ADULTS) - Ageing population with more complex needs - Overseas workers - User-centred approach - Service integration - New technologies

CHILDRENS SERVICES - Changing work patterns and practices (e.g. multi-agency working, extended schools etc) - Enhanced expectations and career aspirations of workforce - Enhanced employer expectations of their workforce

Source: LSC Essex

3.77 The LSC research also reveals that the main causes of skills gaps in the sector in Essex are similar for all three categories. They are:
A lack of experience;
A lack of motivation;
An inability to keep up with change;
A failure to train and develop staff. 3.78 It is noted however that approximately 63% of employers provided on- or off-the-job training in the 12 months preceding the National Employers’ Skills Survey on which the study is based. Education 3.79 As with Health & Social Work, Education is not only a large employer; it is a core contributor to the local quality of life. It is also recognised as a key determinant in location decisions for families because the quality of local schools is commonly a priority criterion influencing their final choice. Provision of education services in Tendring 3.80 There are 40 primary schools and 7 secondary schools in Tendring16 (including Tendring Technology College). Further Education is delivered on two sites in Clacton,

16 http://www.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ecc/schoolsInDistrict.do?stype=Secondary&district=Tendring

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both by the Colchester Institute. A range of courses are available including: plumbing and electrical installations, hairdressing, business, computing, carpentry or auto engineering. 3.81 Adult learning facilities are provided in three locations: in Dovercourt (at Main Road), Clacton (in the Adult Community College), and Frinton (in the community centre) 17 . 3.82 Some higher education courses are available in Tendring but there is no dedicated higher education facility 18 . Employment 3.83 Education is a significant employer in Tendring offering 3,500 jobs (10% of total employment). 3.84 Since 1998, the education sector in Tendring has expanded by 53% compared to 45% in the region and 31% nationally – although it contracted briefly in 2000-2001. This is shown in Figure 3.14. Figure 333.3...14141414 Change in employment in Education between 1998 and 2007

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8 Index, 1998 1998 = 1 Index,

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Tendring East England

Source: ABI 2007

3.85 The type of employment opportunities available in the district differ considerably from those in the region. As shown in Figure 3.15 below, most of the jobs (61%) are to be found in primary education.

17 http://adultlearning.essexcc.gov.uk/vip8/ccol/acc/dis/home.jsp?channelOid=18175 18 It should be noted that the definition of ‘Higher Education’ shown in Figure 3.15 also includes Further Education. This explains the proportion of jobs in ‘Higher Education’ in Tendring.

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Figure 333.3...15151515 Employment breakd own in EducationEducation,, 2007

Source: ABI 2007

3.86 The share of Secondary Education is broadly similar to that in the region and in England, at 25%. However, Tendring has no jobs in Tech nical and Vocational Secondary E ducation and a below -average share in Higher Ed ucation and Adult Education.

The rrresidents

3.87 Thus far our analysis has concentrated on people who work in Tendring, regardless of where they live. In this section we consider the workers who live in Tendring, firstly to assess their economic well being and s econdly to see what skills they can offer to local employers. Population 3.88 The latest 2007 mid -year population estimates show Tendring’s p opulation is 146,200. Figure 3.16 below shows the current age structure of population.

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Figure 333.3...16161616 Age Structure, 2007

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30% % Total Population Total % 20%

10%

0% Tendring East England

0-4' 5-14' 15-24' 25-44' 45-64' 65-74' 74+

Source: ONS

3.89 In terms of population structure, Tendring differs from the regional and national economy in two ways:
The district has higher proportion of people over 65 (26% compared to the regional and national average of 17%).
The proportion of the population aged 25 -44 is 21%, below the regional and national average of 28%. 3.90 As Tendring has an ageing population, the dependency ratio – the proportion of those not in the labour force (those under 14 and t hose over 65) divided by the labour force (aged 15-64) – is 0.7, higher than the regional and national average of 0.5. Thus in Tendring, for every 10 people of working age there are 7 dependents, compared to 5 dependents regionally and nationally. Conseque ntly there is a comparatively greater burden on Tendring’s labour force to support and maintain those that are economically dependent upon them, than there is regionally and nationally. Population ppprojections 3.91 In the future, as life expectancy increases, th e dependency ratio is expected to rise, thereby increasing the burden on the labour force. The ONS 2006 population projections ( Figure 3.17) show that nationally and for the East of England, this dependency ratio approaches 0.6 by 2026. But in Tendring this ratio remains significantly above the benchmark economies , at 0.9 in 2026.

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Figure 333.3...17171717 ONS future dependency ratio

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

0.40

0.30 Dependency ratio 0.20

0.10

0.00

Tendring East England

Source ONS

Qualifications 3.92 To measure resident skills, we use two different indicators that are not directly comparable as they are based on different sources. For Tendring and the neighbouring districts, we use Annual Population Survey, 2007. But this dataset does not cover smaller geographical areas, so for the planning sub-areas in the district, we use the Census 2001. 3.93 In Figure 3.18 below, the red bars show the proportion of working age population with the highest qualifications – NVQ 4/5 equivalent to degree level and above. The yellow bars represent the proportion of residents with the lowest qualifications – no qualifications or NVQ level 1.

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Figure 333.3...18181818 Qualifications, 2007

GB

East

Suffolk Coastal

Mid Suffolk

Ipswich

Colchester

Babergh

Tendring

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% No Quals & NVQ 1 NVQ 4/5 % Working Age Population

Source Annual Population Survey, 2007

3.94 Residents’ qualifications in Tendring are well below the regional and national average. 43% of residents in the district have no qualification or an NVQ level 1 only, compared to 29% regionally and 27% nationally. Only 12% of residents in the district have an NVQ level 4/5 compared with 26% regionally and 29% nationally. Figure 333.3...19191919 Tendring Sub Area Qualifications, 2001

England & Wales

East

Tendring

West Tendring

Mid Tendring

Brightlingsea

Manningtree

Harwich

Frinton

Clacton

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 % of Working Age Population

No Quals & NVQ 1 NVQ 4

Source Census 2001

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3.95 Looking at resident qualifications in Tendring in more detail, Figure 3.19 shows there are disparities in the district. In West Tendring, Mid Tendring, Manningtree and Brightlingsea the proportion of residents with entry level (No Qualification or an NVQ level 1) and degree level (NVQ level 4/5) education is much the same as the regional and national average. In contrast, in Clacton, Harwich and Frinton, over 55% of residents have no qualifications or an NVQ level 1, significantly higher than the regional and national average of 46%. Similarly, the proportion of residents with at least one degree (NVQ level 4/5) in these three sub-areas is no more than 13%, much lower than the regional and national average of 20%. 3.96 The Tendring Business Survey, undertaken by NEMS Market Research in autumn 2008, gathered information from companies about their staff. One of the questions asked was whether companies are able to source trained staff locally. There is a strong trend suggesting that companies of all sizes (excluding sole traders) are able to source staff to meet their needs locally. The trend gets stronger with increasing company size - 69% of companies with 2-10 staff members, 72% of medium-sized companies (11 to 50 employees), and 86% of companies with over 50 employees answered said that they had no problems. 3.97 This did not vary by sector. Retail (74%) and Other Services (63%) gave the highest positive response, with more than 50% from several other sectors, including Engineering, Hospitality, Manufacturing and Business and Financial Services, saying that they had no problems finding local labour. 3.98 This also varied little by area, with the highest scores being 63% and 64% for Brightlingsea and Frinton, respectively. But some areas are encountering some problems in finding staff locally, specifically Harwich (29%) and Manningtree (25%). Resident eeearningsearnings 3.99 Resident earnings in Tendring are £408 per week, much lower than the regional and national average of £470 and £455 per week respectively. Amongst the districts, with the exception of Mid Suffolk, resident earnings in Tendring are much the same as other neighbouring districts.

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Figure 333.3...20202020 Gross Weekly Earnings, 2007

600 Residents Workplace

500

400

300

200 £ Gross Weekly Earnings Weekly Gross £

100

0 East Ipswich Babergh Tendring Colchester Mid Suffolk Mid Great Britain Great

Suffolk Coastal Suffolk Source Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

3.100 Figure 3.20 also compares resident and workplace earnings. In Tendring resident earnings are greater than workplace earnings by £67 per week, suggesting on balance that the district exports high earning workers and imports low earning ones. Unemployment 3.101 Below, as with qualifications earlier in this chapter, we present two separate indicators for unemployment 19 . Table 3.4 below shows unemployment in the district based on the Annual Population Survey 2007 (International Labour Organisation – ILO – definition). As noted above, we have to use an alternative dataset for the smaller geographical levels, namely the 2007 claimant count. Table 333.3...44 ILO Unemployment by district, 2007

% U/E Tendring 6.3 Mid Suffolk 5.8 Colchester 5.7 Ipswich 4.4 Suffolk Coastal 3.4 Babergh 2.5 East 4.5 GB 5.4

19 The ILO is the official definition of unemployment, provided by the International Labour Organisation. It counts people who are economically active, currently not working and actively seeking work. The claimant count is the number of people claiming unemployment related benefits, such as job seekers allowance. It is always the lower measure because some unemployed people are not entitled to benefits or choose not to

Roger Tym & Partners with Lawson Planning Partnership, LSH and Newman Commercial May 2009 54 Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

Source Annual Population Survey

3.102 Table 3.4 shows that current unemployment in Tendring is approximately 6.3%, similar to the GB average of 5.4% but much higher than the East of England (4.5%). Amongst the districts, there appears to be a distinct difference in unemployment rates. Ipswich, Suffolk Coastal, and Babergh have very low unemployment rates, similar to the regional average. Mid Suffolk and Colchester have unemployment rates similar to the national average but much higher than the regional average. Thus although Tendring’s unemployment rate is higher than all neighbouring districts it is similar to Colchester and Mid Suffolk. Table 333.3...55 Claimant Count Unemployment, 2007

% U/E Clacton 3.7 Harwich 3.0 Frinton 2.2 Brighlingsea 1.5 Mid Tendring 1.5 Manningtree 1.3 West Tendring 0.9 Tendring 2.8 East 1.9 GB 2.5

Source Claimant Count

3.103 According to the claimant count table (Table 3.5), unemployment in Tendring is 2.8%, as above. Although the proportions are different the ranking remains the same - Tendring’s unemployment is similar to the GB national average, 2.5% and higher than the regional average, 1.9%. 3.104 Looking at unemployment within Tendring, there are distinct disparities in the district. Clacton and Harwich have unemployment rates above 3.0%, higher than national average, whereas the rest of the district has unemployment rates closer to the regional average. Deprivation 3.105 The Index of Multiple Deprivation is a measure of deprivation across a range of indicators at a small area level. The index consists of eight domains, income, health & disability, employment, education, skills & training, barriers to housing & services, living environment and crime. 3.106 Table 3.6 below shows the rank of each local authority area based on the average Index of Deprivation 2007, where 1 is the most deprived district and 354 the least deprived. Tendring ranking is 103, high by national standards and above all neighbouring districts except Ipswich.

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Table 333.3...66 IMD Districts and larger benchmarks, 2007

Rank of Average Score

Ipswich 99 Tendring 103 Colchester 224 Suffolk Coastal 274 Barbegh 277 Mid Suffolk 306

Source CLG

3.107 The map below (Figure 3.21) shows the geography of deprivation within Tendring. The most deprived wards, ranked in the top 40% nationally are concentrated in the sub- areas of Clacton, parts of Frinton, West Tendring and parts of Harwich. There are also small pockets of comparatively lower deprivation to the south of Harwich, to the north of Frinton and in the Manningtree sub area. Figure 333.3...21212121:: The Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2007

Source RTP

Travel to wwworkworkorkork 3.108 According to the latest data available, the Census 2001, Tendring has 53,500 working residents and 41,200 workplace jobs, therefore the district exports 12,300 residents to

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other districts. Figure 3.22 shows travel flows for people that work in Tendring and residents that work outside the district. The figure shows
8,800 and 4,800 Tendring residents travel to Colchester and London. Of the other destinations, with the exception of the Rest of UK, less than a 1,000 residents travel to these areas.
In terms of people who work in Tendring, 36,000 live there as well. 3,000 people travel into the district from neighbouring Colchester, and of the rest of Essex and Suffolk districts shown, the number of people that commute from these districts to Tendring is just over 1,000. Figure 333.3...22222222:::: CommCommutinguting Flows, Tendring, 2001

Source, Census, RTP

3.109 Self containment (shown in Table 3.7) – the proportion of residents who work in the district – in Tendring is 67%. Compared with other Haven Gateway districts this is approximately in the middle, similar to Mid Suffolk but slightly below the larger economies of Ipswich and Colchester.

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Table 333.3...7777 Self Containment, Haven Gateway districts, 2001

% of residents Ipswich 72% Colchester 71% Suffolk Coastal 67% Tendring 67% Mid Suffolk 57% Babergh 57%

Source Census 2001

3.110 Aside from the travel flows between local authorities as discussed above, another dimension of travel to work is to analyse the sustainability of residents’ journeys to work. To measure this we look at residents’ average journey distance to work. Table 333.3...88 Resident Employees Average JournJourneyey to Work, 2001

kmkmkm Colchester 12.6 Tendring 12.5 Mid Suffolk 12.2 Babergh 11.9 Suffolk Coastal 9.9 Ipswich 7.5 East of England 11.9 England and Wales 9.6

Source Census 2001

3.111 Table 3.8 shows Tendring residents on average commute 12.5km to work. This is much higher than the national average, 9.6km, and slightly higher than the regional average, 11.9km. Tendring residents travel further than all other comparator districts, with the exception of Colchester. This is likely to be because of the large numbers of people that commute to London from Colchester. 3.112 The Tendring Business Survey gathered information from occupiers about the distances their employees travel to work. This showed that smaller companies have their staff living closer to work (49% to 58% live within 2 miles of work). On the other hand, bigger companies have a more even distribution of employees living between 2 and 15 miles from work. 3.113 When analysed by target sector, it is revealed that creative industries, hospitality and retail employees live closest to their workplace – 64% of retail, and 59% of creative industries and hospitality staff are located within 2 miles of their workplace. A more uneven distribution is evident with construction and logistics and transport companies, who have high numbers of staff both within 2 miles and within 10 miles of their workplace. This is an important finding, given the importance of the distribution sector to Tendring and particularly Harwich. 3.114 Despite this finding, the analysis by location shows that a very high proportion of staff in Harwich (73%) live within 2 miles of their employment. The figure is also high for

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Frinton (67%). A more even distribution, where more significant number of staff (22%) travel over 15 miles to get to work, is observed in Manningtree. Mid-Tendring and West-Tendring also show a more even distribution, with similar numbers of staff travelling 2 miles, 5 miles and 10 miles to get to work.

Key pppointspoints Is employment growing? 3.115 Employment in Tendring over the eight year period (1998-2006) has grown faster than all benchmark economies. But much of this growth is due to growth in population related activities like retailing and health and education, which although they are fast growing sectors are also low paying. Moreover, this growth is entirely dependent on population growth, rather than any economically-driven factors. This is reflected in the district’s workplace earnings which are lower than all other benchmark economies. 3.116 This will have implications on land requirements as these sectors (retail, health and education) are all non B-class sectors. This is why they have been included, along with tourism, in this study. They are likely to be the drivers of employment growth in the district. How productive is the economy? 3.117 Although we do not measure this directly there are proxies to measure this - the proportion of knowledge based employment and the representation of high value sectors in the local economy. In terms of the proportion of knowledge based employment, Tendring’s is lower than all other benchmark economies. Similarly, in terms of the number of high value sectors identified nationally, Tendring only has one - Transport - which can be explained by the port activities at Harwich. Although Construction shows a location quotient greater than 1 is we believe this is misleading as there are no major construction companies located in the district. How well off are the residents? 3.118 In terms of their overall well being, Tendring residents are relatively poor. Earnings, although being much the same as neighbouring districts, are significantly lower than the regional and national average. Unemployment in the district is much higher than other comparator economies and is concentrated in the sub areas of Clacton and Harwich. One reason for this high unemployment is that these local areas show a high proportion of residents with low skills. Furthermore, the Index of Multiple Deprivation identifies wards within the Clacton and Harwich sub areas that are amongst the most deprived nationally. Travel to work and sustainability 3.119 The above analysis shows that Tendring is a net exporter of labour and that self- containment – the proportion of residents who work in the district – is similar to other benchmark districts. Residents who travel to work outside the district, mostly commute to the larger economies of Colchester and London.

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3.120 In terms of sustainability, an adverse effect of commuting is that Tendring residents travel long distances to access employment opportunities. However, it must be recognised that this has occurred for a long time and probably will continue. Even accepting this, it is not necessarily a totally negative factor as residents choose to remain living and investing in the district and therefore comprise a useful source of employees to tap into as employment opportunities arise.

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444 PROPERTY MARKET PROFPROFILEILE

4.1 The district of Tendring occupies an area of 130 square miles on the north east coast of Essex and includes more than 40 miles of coastline. The current population of the district is estimated to be 146,200, a figure which has grown by around one-fifth over the past 20 years. Unsurprisingly given its coastal location, a high proportion (circa 26%) of Tendring’s resident population is of retirement age (as shown in Figure 4.1). Figure 4.1 Age profile of Tendring population, 2007

2007 Tendring Age Profile Indexed to GB Average

190

170

150

130

110

0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75+ 90

70

50 Source: CACI, ONS

Source: CACI, ONS

4.2 The coastal resort of Clacton is the district’s largest and best known settlement and is home to around 37% of the district’s residents. The town itself has historically been the main focus of growth in the District and is currently identified as a location for peripheral expansion for residential and other uses in the Local Plan. 4.3 Perhaps the district’s greatest single asset in terms of the local economy is the deep water container port found at Harwich, the district’s second largest settlement. The port is of national importance for container and passenger traffic providing a gateway between Continental Europe and the UK and was granted consent in 2004 for a significant extension at Bathside Bay. 4.4 Other notable population centres within the district include the Frinton/Walton urban area, Lawford/Manningtree/Mistley urban area and Brightlingsea. These centres perform relatively minor roles within Tendring’s economy compared to the larger centres of Clacton and Harwich. 4.5 The western part of the district abuts the Borough of Colchester and part of the urban area of the town itself. Colchester, being a significant sub regional town within the Haven Gateway growth area is also a major employment location. In addition to

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existing employment provision within the town centre, Severalls Business Park and other industrial and retail areas, a significant amount of new Class B employment land is planned to the north and west of the town. 4.6 In terms of road transport, Tendring is served by two trunk roads: the A12 and the A120 which meet at the Crown Interchange which lies on the edge of the district’s boundary with Colchester Borough. The former links the district with London and Ipswich, the Capital City being circa 60 miles from Tendring. The A120 provides the east-west link between the Harwich, the M11, the wider motorway network and Stansted Airport. 4.7 In terms of rail transport, the district is well served with a total of 14 stations District wide. There are regular direct rail links linking Clacton, Harwich and The Port of Harwich with London Liverpool Street with journey times in the order of 90 minutes. In addition to these passenger services, The Port of Harwich has an intermodal rail head facility allowing the handling of containers, trade cars and other unitised cargoes. 4.8 As explained earlier, the presence of port facilities at Harwich and the holiday resort of Clacton on Sea mean that the employment profile is skewed to towards Distribution, Hotel and Restaurants, Transport and Communications and Tourism related employment. The penetration of Finance, IT, and other Business employment is circa half that seen nationally. This is important as this sector is the key driver of demand for office property. 4.9 At present it is estimated that circa 33% of the population commute out of the district for employment to major centres such as Colchester, London and, to a lesser extent, Ipswich.

Floorspace aaactivityactivity

4.10 Whilst Tendring is a net exporter of employment to surrounding districts there are reasonably large quantities of commercial floorspace within the district. Certainly compared with Maldon, a more rural district found immediately to the south of Tendring, there is a much greater degree of commercial development, with 555,000 sq m of office, industrial and warehousing space in Tendring compared with 322,000 sq m in Maldon. That said, Babergh to the north of Tendring has significantly more commercial space, with 718,000 sq m of office, industrial and warehousing space found principally in Hadleigh and Sudbury. The adjoining Colchester and nearby Ipswich boroughs have 1,361,000 and 1,555,000 sq m of commercial floorspace, whilst the rural Suffolk Coastal district, containing the major port of Felixstowe has 1,040,000 sq m. The majority of this difference is accounted for by factory and warehouse space which is largely the result of comparatively larger port facilities at Felixstowe compared with Harwich and the greater direct and indirect demand for warehouse and industrial space that this brings.

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Figure 4.2 Commercial Property FloorFloorspacespace by DistrictDistrict

Commercial Property Floorspace by District

450

400

350

300

250 Offices Factories Warehouses 200

Floorspace x1,000 Sq M Sq x1,000 Floorspace 150

100

50

0 Tendring Colchester Ipswich Babergh Source: VOA

Source: VOA

4.11 Figure 4.2 above shows the concentration of office and industrial space in Tendring compared to that found in the neighbouring districts of Colchester, Ipswich and Babergh. Overall Tendring has the lowest quantity of commercial floorspace of all the districts which is one factor that helps to explain the high proportion of outward commuting experienced in the district. 4.12 Clearly whilst the quantity of office space in Tendring is comparable to that found in Babergh in Suffolk, the concentration of office space is much lower than seen in the two other comparison districts with just 74,000 sq m of office space in Tendring compared with 221,000 sq m in Colchester and 353,000 sq m in Ipswich. Furthermore, more than 25% of this office space is classified as being ancillary to other uses and thus is likely to house the administrative functions of non office based industry. 4.13 Figures obtained from Tendring District Council indicate very little, if any, office development since 2000. It is therefore likely that the majority of the existing available stock is of a lower quality and poorly configured, compared with contemporary layouts. Whilst this type of space may well service the local demand apparent in the market, it is unlikely to prove appealing to those considering Tendring as a potential office location. If nothing is done, there is the danger that that this situation could continue and be exacerbated by current occupiers moving to neighbouring districts where a more ready supply of office space is available. In order to kick start the office market, it would be necessary to provide a small amount of new, high quality office space in a location more attractive to new investors. This would be likely to have most potential on the western fringe of the district. This is mainly due to the close proximity and good transport links to the nearby Colchester and Ipswich areas along with the principal Tendring areas of Clacton and Harwich.

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4.14 The industrial/warehouse market is a stronger component of the local economy than the office sector with 481,000 sq m of space district wide. The presence of the Port of Harwich within the district will certainly have been a contributory factor in creating interest from industrial and distribution occupiers. This is partially reflected in the employment profile of the district which shows proportionally high numbers of people employed in the distribution, transport and communication sectors although perhaps surprisingly given the quantity of factory space within the district, a lower than average proportion of the population are employed in manufacturing. 4.15 In terms of the future, the proposed major container port development at Bathside Bay, Harwich will, if and when it comes to fruition, generate a rapid growth in freight traffic. Importantly this will create increased demand particularly for warehouse and distribution space although there will of course be a positive knock-on effect to other sectors of the property market. The ability of the District to provide commercial space to service this planned new facility will prove critical if Tendring is to meet its potential. In order to maximise this potential sites for employment use will need to be safeguarded near to the port and along the A120 corridor. 4.16 In terms of both freehold and leasehold transactions (a transaction is a new property deal being made for premises to be occupied), the Tendring office market is quite sedentary with relatively few deals concluded annually and those that are concluded very much on a small scale. Transactions typically involve the churn of small quantities of space by small local companies seeking alternative premises. District wide it is estimated that 75% of companies employ less than five staff which is certainly reflected by the size of deals concluded. That said it is the lack of transactions that is of some concern with just a handful of deals recorded annually according to Focus (see Figure 4.5). Whilst demand is likely to be low, the fact remains that little in the way of office development has taken place over the past decade and therefore, the type of space available is likely to be of questionable quality which in turn could result in occupiers seeking space in alternative locations. 4.17 The levels of office and industrial floor space take up in terms of square metres for the Tendring District is shown in Figures 4.3 and 4.4 below.

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Figure 4.3 Tendring district office taketake----upupupup

Tendring District Office Take-up

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000 SqM

800

600

400

200

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Focus

Source: Focus

4.18 The Tendring industrial market is certainly more active as expected given the presence of the Port of Harwich and associated commercial development in the district. However, the level of transactions is lower than expected with on average less than 2,000 sq m transacted annually according to Focus (see Figure 4.4). Figure 4.4 Tendring district industrial taketake----upupupup

Tendring District Industrial Take-up

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500 SqM

2000

1500

1000

500

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Focus

Source: Focus

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4.19 Of concern is the low number of transactions district-wide that are concluded annually, which suggest that as with the office sector, occupiers are looking elsewhere for space. Evidence of this is seen in the ‘deal count’ charts (this is the annual commercial transaction count by district and is different from take-up, which shows the total floorspace that is occupied by new businesses). As Figures 4.5 and 4.6 illustrate, there are much higher commercial property transaction counts in neighbouring districts. Figure 4.5 Office deal count, by district

Office Deal Count by Local Authority District

40

35

30

25

Tendring

20 Maldon Count Ipswich 15 Colchester

10

5

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Focus

Source: Focus

Roger Tym & Partners with Lawson Planning Partnership, LSH and Newman Commercial May 2009 66 Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

Figure 4.6 Industrial deal count, by district

Industrial Deal Count by Local Authority District

50

45

40

35

30 Tendring

25 Maldon Count Ipswich 20 Colchester 15

10

5

0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Focus

Source: Focus

4.20 Whilst the high penetration of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) within the local economy does mean that a high proportion of transactions will be for relatively small quantities of space, the presence of the Port of Harwich suggests there should be demand for larger quantities of space particularly from logistics occupiers. Potentially the lack of larger transactions could be a function of a lack of suitable accommodation. Certainly plans to increase capacity at the port would suggest that any such supply shortfalls will need to be addressed. If significant job growth is to be achieved in order to grow the Tendring economy up to 2026 and beyond, then suitable commercial development will need to be brought forward if Tendring is not to lose out to other districts.

Rents

4.21 Annual office rental levels in Tendring are lower than seen in all of the other districts (see Figure 4.7). The level shown on the graph is the top achievable level for the best current accommodation in Clacton and Harwich. The subdued nature of rents in the district reflects the low quality nature of the accommodation available and the low levels of demand for office space in the district. It is estimated that a new, high specification office development would require rental levels to be in the region of £165 per sq m in order for the developer to make a profit. In the future it is anticipated that this level may be achievable if it is in a desirable location.

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Figure 4.7 Prime office rents, by district

Prime Office Rents by District

200

190

180

170

160

150

£ per£ sq m 140

130

120

110

100 Tendring Maldon Ipswich Colchester Source: Lambert Smith Hampton

Source Lambert Smith Hampton

4.22 Industrial rental levels are also lower than seen in the comparison districts reflecting the lower level of demand for space within Tendring (see Figure 4.8). The £59 per sq m figure is quoted for smaller industrial units (circa 90- 250 sq m) however at present prime rents for larger units are likely to be in the region of £43 per sq m. It is probable that the expansion of port facilities at Harwich would stimulate rental growth within the industrial sector as demand for space increases.

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Figure 4.8 Prime industrial rents, by district

Prime Industrial Rents by District

80

70

60

50

40 £ per£ sq m 30

20

10

0 Tendring Maldon Ipswich Colchester Source: Lambert Smith Hampton

Source: Lambert Smith Hampton

Profile of Occupiers

4.23 The Tendring Business Survey gathered information from occupiers about their businesses and premises. 4.24 In terms of the ownership of their premises, sole traders and bigger companies (i.e. with more than 50 employees) tended to be more likely to own their premises outright – 46% of sole traders and 71% of bigger companies surveyed owned their business properties. Medium-sized companies are more likely to lease premises or rent them on an easy-in easy-out basis. This would suggest that, as companies grow in the district, then their needs in terms of premises tenure will change. 4.25 Companies were also surveyed on the length of time that they have been at their present premises. Nearly half of sole traders (48%) and companies with 2 to 10 employees (47%) have been at their present location for more than 10 years. More than 70% of medium-sized companies (with 11 to 50 employees) have been at their current premises for more than 5 years. Bigger companies (over 50 employees) have all been in their present location for more than 5 years. Furthermore, 71 % of bigger companies have been at their present location for more than 10 years. It is clear that the core of the business base in the district has been established for a very long time. 4.26 In terms of company origin, 85% of sole traders and 76% of small companies (with up to 10 employees) were new businesses when they set up in the district. 4.27 When broken down by target sector, the following trends emerge for the type of premises: 68% of agricultural companies and 51% of engineering companies own their premises. In addition, 58% of transport and 59% of manufacturing companies also own

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their premises, which is an interesting finding, given the importance of the manufacturing and distribution sector to Tendring. 4.28 In terms of the length of time spent in their current location, a high number of agricultural companies (76%) and creative industry companies (57%) have been at their present location for more than a decade. 4.29 91% of the retail sector businesses, 83% of the hospitality industry and 75% of business and financial services companies were started in the district. 4.30 87% of companies in West-Tendring and 83% of Frinton companies were new start-up companies when they located there. Additionally, over 70% of Clacton and Brightlingsea companies have been started up locally. The figure for Manningtree is slightly less at 58%. This suggests that Manningtree – possibly because of its favourable location nearer to the main strategic rail and road routes (i.e. A12 and A14) – is seen as a more attractive location for inward investors. It also may be due to the availability of premises there at attractive rents compared to other locations in the Haven Gateway. The analysis of the survey in Chapter 3 showed that a large proportion of staff working in Manningtree commute greater distances to work. So clearly many of the people working at these businesses will be coming from outside the district.

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555 QUALITATIVE FUTURES ––– SCENARIO BUILDING

5.1 The following two chapters present three alternative futures for Tendring district up to 2026 and 2031. This chapter presents a qualitative assessment of the possible future for the district. This takes the form of scenarios which were devised following the assessment of the districts assets, opportunities, threats and constraints. These scenarios were then tested with stakeholders in order to understand what they thought was achievable in the future and to explore their justification for this view. 5.2 The following chapter then considers the quantitative expression of these scenarios by way of econometric forecasts commissioned specifically for the study.

Why scenario building is needed

5.3 As “The Economist” recently wrote, “To express certainty about the future is always foolish” . It is not futile, however, to investigate possible futures and subsequently to examine the various ways in which a country, region or district could respond to those possible futures. Indeed, it is often necessary to debate and decide upon the type of flexibilities that need to be built into the policy regime of a county, city or district, and the type of programme actions that should be taken today in order to be able to positively respond to and manage the challenges of tomorrow . This debate is commonly conducted using scenario-planning tools. 5.4 Scenarios are used by governments and businesses around the world in order to assist them prepare for and manage the future (which is often volatile and very uncertain). Indeed, scenarios are often used when the object of study is fraught with uncertainties, and when a long-term assessment (say, over 15 years) is required. Econometric forecasts, such as those based on trend analysis (and using regression type forms of statistical description) are used (and are relatively “accurate”) if the dynamics of the objective of inquiry are well understood. This is often the case for demographic forecasts, and reasonably so for short-run future estimates of key macro- economic indicators, such as gross domestic product by country. But for investigating a complex, self-reflexive and volatile system well into the future (e.g. the economy of a country, region or district in 2026) scenario-planning is generally the most appropriate and often the preferred approach (see Evidence Box 1), commonly in combination with econometric forecasts.

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Evidence Box 1: Scenario Building ––– Planning for the Future Scenarios are powerful tools for developing alternative pictures or visions of potential futures. Scenario development involves producing stories about a future which have been shaped by exploring the present and analysing the impact of the past. Scenarios must be firmly and objectively rooted in an understanding of past events, with multiple sources of input (e.g., review of previous research and available data, interviews and discussions with key local stakeholders) being rigorously tested to develop a shared understanding of their meaning. The value of scenarios lies in the use to which they are put – in the context of this study by providing a valuable guide to action within which both opportunity and risk are assessed and contribute to the realisation of an agreed long term goal (embedded in the wider spatial planning framework). A number of ‘rules’ surround the scenario building process, importantly:

-Scenarios are NOT forecasts – rather they are possible futures -They are best presented as concise commentary -They are used to help formulate a coherent vision of the future -They should involve the active participation of key stakeholders (and a range of experts, often called in the jargon of scenario planning, “remarkable people”)

The best scenarios are stories about how a country, district or business sees itself in the future, and how it is going to achieve this future. They present a range of future states to which the country, district or business may have to respond. They encourage and guide debate about how that respond can be fashioned. At best they enable stakeholders to build into their planning policy regime or business strategy, flexibilities which will allow them to pro-actively respond and manage change in the future.

The context for scenario building in Tendring

5.5 Three scenarios were devised for Tendring District – one to represent ‘business as usual’; one for incremental improvement; and one for step-change growth. It is usual for scenarios to be constructed by the stakeholders, facilitated by scenario planning experts; first, the key drivers of change are identified; second, best and worst case impacts within the country, city or district in question are debated and agreed upon by the stakeholders; and third, the stakeholders devise a range of plausible scenarios and test their robustness with external but ‘knowledgeable’ reviewers, such as prominent business owners and academics, and community focus groups. 5.6 The above process was circumvented due to the constraints of time and budget. The three scenarios were constructed by the consultants and subsequently validated by a selected group of stakeholders from the District. The basis of the scenarios was an assessment of the challenges – problems and opportunities - that currently characterises Tendring District as agreed during the employment land workshop held as part of this study and concerning the nature specifically of future employment land requirements. 5.7 Tendring most certainly is facing a range of challenges. Whichever indicator you chose, it is clear that the District is not punching at its weight; indeed, it is punching

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well below its weight. In general the District is a low skilled and low wage economy. It is characterised by mostly small sized businesses (when considering small and medium sized enterprises – SMEs – as a whole) and whilst these are very important to the district’s economy, they do not actually generate significant value-added. As one participant put it during the workshops referred to above; “The economy of the District seems to have lost its sense of purpose – we have failed to make the most out of our assets”. Within the Greater South East region of the UK, Tendring is one of the lowest performing areas as regards the percentage of people employed in knowledge intensive and high productivity sectors (See Figure 5.1). Figure 555.5...1111 The KKKnowledgeKnowledge Economy of the Greater South East and TendTendringring District

Source: Geo-economics 2007 (unpublished). 5.8 The relative poor state of health of the economy is directly reflected in the incidence of deprivation within the District. In 2007 the District was the most deprived in Essex; discussions with Council officials undertaken during this study lead one to believe that this position has not dramatically changed. Given the current recession, such a state of affairs may worsen. 5.9 There is, however, a range of assets and associated opportunities within Tendring. The District is located within the Haven Gateway sub-region, an ‘engine of growth’ as recognised by EEDA, and lies adjacent to Colchester, one of the region’s fast growing and relatively prosperous urban areas. Indeed, it can reasonably be argued that much of Tendring lies within the functional economic area of Colchester. The University of Essex abuts the administrative boundary of Tendring; a number of commercial

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developments straddle the boundary; and commuters and shoppers travel to Colchester. 5.10 Furthermore, the District is likely to witness a dramatic expansion of the Haven Ports associated with the Bathside Bay container terminal development; a development which has been estimated will generate 770 direct jobs and over 500 indirect jobs in total. The construction of the new container terminal would also generate significant direct and indirect job numbers. Moreover, this development lies adjacent to Harwich which will be subject to considerable regeneration activities in the coming years. 5.11 Tendring is a coastal District and areas such as Clacton and Frinton-on-Sea evoke images of classic (and perhaps forgotten) English seaside holidays. Although many parts of the coastal areas of the District are faded (and some, such as Jaywick, in dire need of rejuvenation) other areas have witnessed promising developments; for example, a major residential and marina development has been built in Brightlingsea, and another planned for the Navy Yard in Harwich. There is, undoubtedly, scope to develop the many coastal assets of the District, so underpinning an expanded tourism and leisure ‘offer’, one that includes both ‘value for money’ and high value-added, up- market, activities. 5.12 Tendring faces a number of daunting problems, some seemingly intractable, but the District also has a number of exciting opportunities and inspiring plans for the future. The creation of its Regeneration Company, INTend and the recent publication of the Haven Gateway Integrated Delivery Plan will help to construct a coherent narrative for Tendring that knits together the opportunities, plans, and communities of the District. Together with the imminent development of the new District Regeneration Strategy, this will allow the District stakeholders to present a convincing rationale for investment in existing or planned programmes and projects to outside funders (such as EEDA and CLG). These initiatives will allow Tendring to be seen to have a vision and an associated strategic plan with a high likelihood of achieving sustained and cost- effective regeneration of the District.

The Scenarios

5.13 Three scenarios were created; business as usual (with the strap-line ‘Mud-Bound and Boggy’); incremental improvement (called ‘A Better Backwater’); and step-change (termed ‘Shimmering Golden Pond’). Each scenario is associated with a different employment land-use future for the District. The assumed characteristics of each scenario, presented as a narrative, are as follows: ‘Mud‘Mud----boundbound and Boggy’ 5.14 This scenario assumes that the District takes a very long time to recover from the current recession. Indeed, it took until 2015 for the development indicators for Tendring to return to where they were in pre-recession 2007; by which time the considerable increase in the population of over-65s (retirees) put yet greater strain on District social services. Employment numbers were relatively static; the OEF RSS projections of only

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3,700 extra jobs between 2006 and 2026 proved to be correct. Industry and warehousing experienced a net loss of some 1,300 jobs between this time period. 5.15 The depressed nature of the District’s economy meant that a number of projects mooted in 2008-2009 failed to materialise; in 2015 plans for the Navy Yard at Harwich remained on the drawing board. The District maintained its rather insular stance and working relations with its neighbours were often strained and seldom close. 5.16 Colchester did expand but the effects on Tendring were not beneficial; they were neutral. The district was, in effect, ignored by Colchester as the borough focused on collaborative arrangements to the west and north. The focus of activity in Tendring was on a limited range of individual physical regeneration projects rather than a District-wide economic development programme. 5.17 Fundamentally, Tendring didn’t change very much. Funds were in extremely short supply and other areas presented a more compelling case for financial assistance. Relative decline was inevitable given the quickening pace of development that other areas of Essex experienced post-2011. ‘A Better Backwater’ 5.18 This scenario assumes that a major development, such as Bathside Bay, did ‘take-off’ in Tendring after the 2008-2010 recession, and that a range of marginal improvements (mostly physically based) did occur across the District. The A120, for example, was improved, due to the Bathside Bay development. A few logistic and warehousing operations were located in Tendring but most could be found to the north and west of the District, around Ipswich and Colchester. Growth in the District was centred in the north (largely due to the Bathside Bay development); decay and dissatisfaction simmered in the south and west of the District. 5.19 The structure and dynamics of the economy of the District in 2026 remained essentially the same as they had been in 2007-2008. There were few large firms in 2026; small firms, paying relatively low wages and underpinning a local labour market characterised by low and inadequate skills, dominated the District. It seemed as if the modern knowledge economy had by-passed most of Tendring. 5.20 The rural areas in particular were flat-lining economically; many of the wealthy commuters (who had previously travelled to London) had left the District during the 2008-2010 recession; few returned when the economy picked up; a number of the (commuter) villages looked denuded and empty, even in 2015. 5.21 The built environment of the District was improved over the years 2008-2026. Tendring looked better and attracted yet more retirees with associated calls on social services, but a range of socio-economic indicators did not move (fast enough) in the right direction. Improvements were lopsided and, worse, many of the physical improvements were compromised as a corresponding emphasis on the economy was often lacking. As with the business-as-usual scenario, the District maintained its rather insular stance and working relations with its neighbours were often strained and seldom close.

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‘Shimmering Golden Pond’ 5.22 This scenario assumes a step-change in the performance of the economy of Tendring. Facing down the 2008-2010 recession, the District devised a positive two-pronged strategy. It did this by positioning itself as a ‘Gateway’ in two forms. Firstly, as a gateway to the world, exemplified by Bathside Bay and the collaboration with Colchester that developed the global knowledge-based economy of the District. Secondly, as a gateway to ‘health living and the best quality of life in Essex’, as exemplified by the resurgence of villages increasingly known for their creative industries, the rise of entrepreneurialism in urban areas such as Clacton (Winner of Enterprise Capital 2014 as was Scarborough in 2008) and the development of a Centre for Renewable Energy in the District. The Clacton off-shore wind farm, completed in 2014, signalled a major drive to reduce CO2 levels across the District. Tendring became known in 2016 as a leading low carbon impact District in the UK. 5.23 The strategy was driven by five major programmes: a. the coastal town renaissance; b. the attraction of creatives to the district, such as computer programmers, web- designers, commercial designers and artists (including retirees – healthy active retirement was actively promoted in the District!) c. the comprehensive regeneration and development of Harwich, including the Bathside Bay development; d. the joint Colchester-Tendring development of the Eastern Colchester Edge; and e. the ‘Vibrant Villages’ programmes which saw the development of a range of communities; including creative villages (home to new communities of artists and out-sourced research and development workers); active retirement villages modelled on the retirement centres of southern USA; and major tourism and leisure centres housing a number of nationally praised B&B accommodation units. 5.24 Four evenly spaced hotspots areas arose in the District: a. The ‘Harwich Cluster’ noted for its Port and the revival of the town. In 2026 the container terminal (Bathside Bay) is fully operational, and major infrastructure improvements, including the vastly upgraded A120, have greatly increased the connectivity of the District. Over 2,900 new direct jobs associated with the rise of the Harwich cluster have gone to Tendring residents, and many more indirect employment opportunities have lead to the rise of per capita GVA to surpass the County average. The development of the strategic employment sites in and around Harwich occurred between 2012 and 2026 because of the rise of the cluster. This area started to attract workers commuting into the District as early as 2014. Furthermore, a major but appropriate programme of (eco) housing building occurred in the area post-2014, meeting government targets in the county for such a build. b. ‘Coastal Renaissance’; the coastal offer was greatly improved and positioned to include a range of high value-added upmarket services and products (Clacton became UK Enterprise Capital in 2014). A large number of young creatives moved in, following the Quality of Life assets built in the District (just as they had done in

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Cornwall and Devon in the early 2000s). A major spa–cum-conference centre was built in 2015; Tendring was on the European Conference circuit! c. The ‘‘‘Colchester Collaboration’ programme lead to the development of the high technology ‘strip’ around Colchester and straddling the boundary with Tendring. Colchester’s expansion eastwards gathered pace after the 2008-2010 recession and the west of Tendring became coloured with a range of business-cum- knowledge economy parks and developments. This is the area where high- technology Tendring is located. Colchester and Tendring co-funded a number of the developments and jointly sought support from EEDA and the EU; d. Vibrant Villages ;;; a programme of rural diversification commenced in 2011, and was successful. Key villages within the centre of the District became the residential location of choice for many working in the high technology ‘strip’. Other villages were noted for their active retirement communities and for their high quality B&B accommodation offer. Walton-on-the-Naze became a major national nature reserve and sailing centre; accommodation around the small town was always hard to find. A number of London commuters did return to Tendring, adding to the vibrant social mix of the District. Collaborative, open, engaging, attractive, and prosperous, and a pleasure to live within, were some of the descriptions used to characterise Tendring in 2026. The result of Tendring’s Gateway strategy is expressed in Figure 5.2. Figure 555.25.2.2.2 Tendring 2026

Bathgate Bay Heaven

Best hidden nature reserve in the South?

Business park development Linking up with the University

A new locations for ‘creatives’ & Active retiree

Focus expansion on Clacton ? TENDRING : The Shimming Golden Pond Conceptual Master plan

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Results of the scenario testing 5.25 The three scenarios were ‘tested’ in front of a selected audience of District stakeholders in November 2008. All agreed that the scenarios were probable; there were signposts in today’s economy that could point to anyone of the three scenarios. Naturally everyone hoped that ‘Mud-bound and Boggy’ did not occur. However, many felt that ‘Shimmering Golden Pond’ was too optimistic. The consensus was that a hybrid of ‘A Better Backwater’ and ‘Shimmering Golden Pond’ was to be expected – and actions should be taken today in order to plan for the implementation of this hybrid. All agreed that implementation would require the District Council’s full commitment; once an over-arching strategy had been devised. Stakeholder alignment behind, and commitment to, its implementation was seen as being vital. This would entail both the public and private sectors involved in the co-development of the strategy and the implementation programme. Details of comments made during the stakeholder validation workshop are given below:
Most supported a vision that aspires to scenario 3 (Shimmering Golden Pond). The timetable for preparing the LDF is 2011 which should allow plenty of time to incorporate these ideas into it.
Many favoured a bite-sized or ‘phased’ approach to the achievement of scenario 3; in the short term elements of Scenario 2 (A Better Backwater) should be pursued, while setting the conditions for the achievement of Scenario 3 in the long term
Many felt that engaging the private sector would be important, however, even with the current public sector fiscal constraints, many believed that the public sector would have the resources to be involved over the long term, particular after 2012- 2014. The time frames for the implementation of a step-change strategy as envisaged in scenario 3 can be long. The private sector may not have the patience or resources for this kind of involvement. Hence, ways must be devised to ensure that the private sector can ‘dip in’ and ‘dip out’ of the implementation programme as required. More generally it was agreed that the strategy must set the enabling conditions that allow and encourage the private sector to lead the implementation of the strategy.
Many were sure that it would be important to structure planning documents to allow for flexibility as circumstances change and opportunities arise and recede. While aiming for a scenario 3 outcome, the eventual outturn is likely to be different in detail from that envisaged.
A key challenge identified by the stakeholder group was how to deal with the prevailing low aspirations of many sections of the public. A public relations campaign and programme of involvement was perhaps required in order to generate enthusiasm for economic renaissance, while at the same time as being realistic and avoid overselling the strategy; for example the prospects for the Colchester high technology ‘strip’.’

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Many considered that it was very important to focus on the quality of life issues, a real USP (unique selling point) of the District which could be developed effect ively and efficiently over the coming 5 -10 years. The comment was made that a mix of economic activities is required; the coastal towns should not be dependent entirely on one activity (tourism to the exclusion of anything else was the dynamic that led to the decline of seaside towns in the first place).
Many felt that the District should collaborate with Colchester; indeed, collaboration should be extended beyond this area and perhaps an MAA (multi area agreement) should be considered. In general the Dist rict should be more outward looking and positive in its stance. 5.26 The three scenarios are only outlines of futures that could materialise in Tendring. Budget and time constraints precluded the development of a comprehensive range of scenarios, deeply evidenced. Nevertheless, these skeleton scenarios throw into high relief a number of the important challenges that the District faces and the implications of various ways in which the challenges could be addressed. Planning for growth (or planning for scenario 3) does have a direct impact on the land allocated for employment ( and housing) and these issues are explored in later sections of this report.

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Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report

666 FORECASTS

Introduction

6.1 In this section we set out forecasts for Tendring which are based on econometric forecasts. This will provide a quantitative outcome that can be used in determining the amount and type of employment land that Tendring should be planning to provide through its Local Development Framework. 6.2 The forecast outcomes are not inevitable and are not the only possible outcomes for Tendring. Forecasts provide a projected outcome under a given set of circumstances and assumptions. These can change or be changed. But their value as a planning tool lies in providing a rigorous framework through which land use decisions can be assessed. 6.3 In order to look at different alternative futures and their planning implications we present three quantified scenarios. Each of these scenarios broadly reflects the three qualitative scenarios outlined in the previous chapter. 6.4 The forecasts of employment are translated into forecasts of employment land to help inform choices over future land use allocations. This gives the picture of possible demand for employment land. Clearly this must be assessed against the current supply of employment land in the district and whether it is suitable to deliver the envisaged growth. This supply analysis is undertaken in Part Two of the study. 6.5 Finally we set out the different spatial implications of each of the forecasts in relation to the seven planning sub-areas of Tendring.

Scenarios

6.6 To inform this study we commissioned Oxford Economics (OE) to undertake employment forecasts for Tendring District for the period 2006-26. These forecasts used a model developed for joint work with EEDA and EERA. 6.7 The model is explained in detail on the EEDA website 20 . In summary, demand (or employment growth) is a combination of both local and national factors. The export sectors have demand driven by UK forecasts (which in turn take account of macro factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, world demand, etc). Sectors such as retailing and elements of business services depend on local spending and local services demand (from other businesses). Construction depends on overall employment growth and public services employment links to population estimates. What these forecasts don’t factor in are the major regeneration schemes such as the proposed port development at Bathside Bay, which in itself will result in a considerably increased demand for skills in the construction sector. 6.8 The scenarios we set out here are not the only options – in theory, any future could be modelled. But they do serve to illustrate different futures and do so within a robust

20 http://www.eeda.org.uk/files/Joint_RES-RSS_modelling_final.pdf

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economic framework. The principal purpose from the point of view of this study is to identify the land use planning implications. However there will also be similar implications in terms of labour market and other economic development activities. 6.9 The three scenarios are:
RSS Baseline – this is the Oxford Economics standard baseline forecast but constrained to the RSS dwellings targets for policy consistency. The OE standard model is based on recent dwellings completion rates which in the first part of the period were been running ahead of RSS targets. This scenario can be seen as reflecting the ‘Mud Bound and Boggy’ scenario outlined in the previous chapter.
Bathside Bay – a specific change to the profile of employment factored in to take account of the development of a new port in Harwich. This can be seen as reflecting the ‘Better Backwater’ scenario.
Raised Activity Rates – economic activity rates for the district are raised to partially close the gap with the region as a whole. This can be seen as reflecting the ‘Shimmering Golden Pond’ scenario. 6.10 Each scenario is presented for the period 2006-26, consistent with the plan period for the LDF. The existing RSS plan period runs from 2001-21. 6.11 In formulating these scenarios we have tried to set out real alternatives to help inform the LDF consultation process. Thus the scenarios are of a different scale, but they also illustrate different structural and spatial options. A final preferred option may reflect elements each of these scenarios.

RSS Policy E1

6.12 Employment policy E1 in the RSS was derived from forecasts prepared by Experian Business Strategies. The E1 policy was an enhanced growth target which set out a growth of 20,000 jobs for the Essex part of the Haven Gateway over the twenty year period 2001-2021 21 . This was widely considered to be an ambitious target. The Haven Gateway jobs target included an allowance for the development of Bathside Bay. 6.13 Tendring District’s share of sub-regional growth had previously been estimated at 6,100 jobs over the period 2001-21 22 . Although initially considered an ambitious target Tendring has achieved most of this growth in the first five years of the RSS plan period. According to the estimates prepared by Oxford Economics, between 2001 and 2006 employment in Tendring grew by 5,200 jobs 23 , thus the plan target was almost achieved in the first quarter of the period. 6.14 However before assuming that this same rate of growth is inevitable two points are worth making. Firstly this was a period of above trend growth nationally. It formed part of the cyclical upswing. We are now entering a period of cyclical downturn when

21 East of England Plan (May 2008). Policy E1 22 East of England Plan Draft revisions (December 2004). Policy HG1 23 These figures include self-employed and hence may differ from analysis of ABI data presented in Chapter 3.

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growth will be below average and indeed is projected to be negative for some 18 months. 6.15 The second point is that the principal components of growth in Tendring were the health and education sectors. Again Tendring gained from national public expenditure expansion in these sectors. Over the remainder of the plan period there is forecast to be lower public expenditure growth in health and education. In other sectors employment in Tendring remained modest and the local economy is still very vulnerable.

RSS Baseline

6.16 The RSS Baseline Scenario produces growth of just 3,700 jobs over 20 years. As such it would closely reflect the ‘Mud Bound and Boggy’ scenario describe earlier. At an average of 185 jobs p.a., this is below the 305 jobs p.a. which formed the RSS ‘target’ rate of growth for the RSS plan period. 6.17 The figure below shows both past and forecast change in resident and workplace workers in Tendring District over the period 1994-2026. As can be seen the numbers of employed residents and workplace jobs are on a similar trajectory. At 1994 there were 43,800 employed residents and 38,800 jobs, a gap of 5,000. By 2006 it is estimated the figures are 50,600 employed residents and 47,400 jobs, with the gap closing to 3,200. 6.18 The numbers of both residents and jobs are forecast to rise steadily with 56,200 employed residents and 51,200 jobs at 2026. The forecast gap has widened back to 5,000. This is shown in Figure 6.1.

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Figure 666.6...1111 Forecast Growth of Resident and Workplace workers

Workplace Employees Resident employees

70

60

50

40

30 Employees'000

20

10

0

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Source: Oxford Economics/RTP

6.19 In this scenario Oxford Economics have constrained dwellings growth to the RSS, whilst actual dwellings completions in Tendring have been above the RSS targets in the first part of the plan period. The effect of lower dwellings growth is that the rate of population growth will be lower. 6.20 This has an effect on employment growth in two ways. Firstly in terms of the demand for population related services, such as health, education and retail. Research from the GLA has suggested that something of the order of 230 jobs are created per 1,000 population. 6.21 Secondly a lower population will, other things being equal, reduce the available workforce and hence make the area less attractive to employers from a labour market perspective. Availability of labour is the highest ranked factor in decisions on business location. 6.22 There is however a significant structural change under this forecast with most of the net growth accounted for by the office sector. Figure 6.2 below shows both past and projected change in employment by sector. Between 1991 and 2006 employment grew by 8,700 with more than half of this, 4,700, accounted for by the health and education sector. Indeed the period 2001-2006 saw an increase in 2,900 jobs in this sector. The other biggest jobs growth sectors have been construction, retail and other services.

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FiFiFigureFi gure 666.6...2222 Past and projected employment change by sector, TenTendringdring district

60.0

50.0

Other Services 40.0 Health & Eductaion Public Admin Financial & Business Transport & Comms 30.0 Hotels & Catering Retail Employment, 000s Wholesale Construction 20.0 Manufacturing Primary & Utilities

10.0

0.0 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Source: Oxford Economics

6.23 Figure 6.2 also illustrates the significant jump in employment between 2001 and 06 and the concentration of that growth in the health and education sector.

The demand for employment land

6.24 The previous section has presented the forecast for employment by industrial sector. Here we focus on employment occupying employment space. 6.25 To identify ‘B-space jobs’ – those that occupy factories, warehouses and offices - we use a sector-to-land-use mapping based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003. Broadly, our analysis assumes that offices (which in our definition include R&D) are occupied by financial and business services, parts of the public administration sector, and publishing. Industrial space is occupied by manufacturing, sewage and refuse disposal, some parts of the construction industry, and the repair and maintenance of motor cars. Warehousing is occupied by a variety of transport and distribution activities. Jobs in labour recruitment – which cover workers employed through agencies – are distributed throughout the economy. 6.26 The ‘goodness of fit’ between sectors and types of space is not perfect; hence our definitions of office and industrial/warehousing jobs are no more than approximations. However, these are the best available approximations, which we have developed

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through a succession of employment space studies, and they are endorsed by Government Guidance on Employment Land Reviews (ODPM, December 2004). 6.27 Table 6.1 below shows the forecast employment change in B-space employment categories translated into estimates of jobs by land use (type of space). Table 666.6...1111 Forecast change in employment, 20062006----20262026 RSS Scenario 2006 2026 Change % Change

Industrial 6,014 4,864 -1,150 -19% Warehousing 2,999 2,869 -130 -4% Industrial & Warehousing 9,012 7,733 ---1,280 ---14% Offices 5,114 7,883 2,769 54% Total B Jobs 14,126 15,616 1,489 11% Non B Jobs 33,305 35,598 2,293 7% All Jobs 47,432 51,214 3,782 8%8%8%

Source: OE, RTP

6.28 Office type employment is forecast to grow by 2,800 jobs over the period 2006-26. This is a growth of 54%. Industrial employment is forecast to decrease by around 1,100 jobs over the period with warehousing employment remaining roughly constant. Non B- space employment grows by 2,300 or 7%. The Net Demand for Space 6.29 To translate the above employment forecasts into demand for space, we use standard employment densities as follows:

Offices – 18m² per worker
Industrial – 32m² per worker
Warehousing – 40m² per worker 6.30 Densities for offices, industry and traditional warehousing are taken from a 1997 survey by Roger Tym & Partners for SERPLAN and are broadly confirmed by a similar 2004 survey by DTZ Pieda for SEERA 24 . 6.31 Employment floorspace ratios for warehousing have a considerable range. We know that strategic warehousing – comprising modern purpose-built distribution units, generally of some 10,000m² or more - generally uses much more floorspace per worker than traditional warehousing – comprising older, smaller units, which may interchangeably be used for industry. The average for traditional warehousing is 2 25 around 40m per workers whilst that for strategic warehousing is 88m² per worker . 6.32 The view that office employment densities are rising overall – as opposed to rising in particular businesses or groups of businesses - is not supported by research. As stated above, the DTZ study for SEERA supported the findings of the earlier SERPLAN study.

24 DTZ Pieda Consulting, Use of Business Space and Changing Working Practices in the South East, 2004 25 Derived from a range of studies, including most recently the study of Strategic Warehousing in the East Midlands produced by MDS Transmodal for the East Midlands Development Agency

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6.33 Certainly it is possible that the average office density will increase substantially in the future. But, on the evidence available to date, it would not be right to incorporate such an increase into our forecasts at this stage. 6.34 The floorspace figures (shown in Table 6.2), like the employment forecasts from which they are derived, relate to net change. Net change in employment (the stock of jobs) is the difference between jobs lost and jobs gained. The corresponding net change in the floorspace stock is the difference between floorspace gained, mostly from new development, and floorspace lost (for example where industrial sites are cleared and redeveloped for housing and other uses). Table 666.6...2222 Requirement for BB----classclass employment floorspace, 20062006----20262026 RSS Scenario Land Space Floors pace Change HaHaHa Density (m2) 2020200620 060606----26262626 (m2) Industrial 32 -36,805 -9.2 Warehousing 40 -5,183 -1.3 Industrial & Warehousing ---41,988 ---10.5 Offices 18 49,842 12.5 Total B ---SSSpace 7,854 2.02.02.0

Source: OE, RTP

6.35 This data reflects employment change forecasts:
In the long term the demand for industrial space decreases and so does demand for floorspace.
The demand for office space is increasing significantly. 6.36 Overall this produces a net increase in demand for B-type floorspace of some 8,000 sq m or around 2 ha of land at a typical 40% plot ratio. 6.37 The net change figures in this table only relate to forecast demand. The supply-side data, existing or planned future, is not factored in at this stage. 6.38 Net demand should not be confused with gross take-up. For example, even when the aggregate stock of land/premises is declining over time, there will still be new sites and premises being developed and occupied. 6.39 There are two stages of employment land that the planning system should allocate. It needs to make available sufficient employment land at any one point of the plan period to enable new development and investment to take place. This can be considered as the frictional element. At any one time there will be land identified in planning terms for B-class development or redevelopment but in practice is not yet capable of producing built floorspace because it is in the process of gaining permission or undergoing site preparation, or under construction. Logically, this ‘sterilised’ supply equals annual gross take-up (the amount of land developed in any one year) times the number of years required from allocation of a site to building completion on that site. In calculating the required margin, we assume that the average time required for achieving planning consent, site preparation and construction should be no more than two years in good markets and three years in poor markets or areas in need of regeneration where this

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process will take longer. We then multiply this against the annual average gross take- up of land (or completions of new floorspace). Recent take-up data has averaged less than 4,000 sq m p.a., equivalent to 1ha of land. 6.40 On this basis we would suggest that Tendring needs to have available no more than 3 ha of land to meet frictional need. 6.41 Whilst gross take-up will always be positive the net amount of employment land required over the plan period can be either positive or negative. In either event the important point to recognise is that the planning system has a key role to play in recycling redundant land back into productive use. This may be to meet the needs of modern business activity or perhaps for some other land use such as leisure or residential. Thus to the extent there is surplus or under-utilised employment land identified, then the Council should consider whether there is an alternative more productive land use allocation.

Scenario 2 ––– Bathside Bay

6.42 The OE baseline forecasts are derived from econometric trend data. They thus do not factor in specific development changes that would not be part of these trends. 6.43 The new port at Bathside Bay is anticipated to come on stream in 2014 and to generate 770 jobs in direct port employment and a further 500 in associated activities 26 . These assumptions were then fed into Oxford Economics base model which in turn generated further multiplier effects. 6.44 This scenario especially provides a boost to the warehousing sector and hence produces a significant extra demand for warehousing land. 6.45 In this scenario we also amend the structurally driven econometric forecasts to better reflect the property market offer of Tendring and take account of recent employment growth patterns. Thus as well as generating a higher level of growth directly associated with the port there is also a structural shift compared with the RSS baseline showing relatively more employment in industrial sectors and relatively less in business services. This is shown in Table 6.3. Table 666.6...3333 Forecast change in employment, Bathside Bay ScenariScenario,o, 20062006----20262026 Bathside Bay Scenario 222006 222026 Change % Change Industrial 6,014 5,429 -585 -10% Warehousing 2,999 3,800 801 27% Industrial & Warehousing 9,012 9,229 216 2%2%2% Offices 5,114 6,756 1,642 32% Total B Jobs 14,126 15,985 1,859 13% Non B Jobs 33,305 38,944 5,638 17% All Jobs 47,432 54,929 7,497 16%

Source: OE, RTP

26 Evidence presented to Bathside Bay Inquiry

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6.46 This scenario shows a total growth of 7,500 jobs. However the overwhelming majority of these are in the non-B space sectors – in part reflecting the direct port-based employment. But it also partially reflects that fact that higher levels of economic growth produce multiplier effects in consumer expenditure and other servicer based sectors. 6.47 Office growth is lower than the RSS Baseline at just 1,600 jobs, still a 32% increase. Thus there is small a positive requirement for new land too meet this demand. 6.48 Overall there is a small net addition to industrial and warehousing employment. This consists of a positive demand of 8 ha for warehousing land offsetting a smaller decline in the demand from industrial space. This is shown in Table 6.4. Table 666.6...4444 Requirement for BB----classclass employment floorspace, Bathside Bay Scenario,Scenario, 20062006----20262026 Bathside Bay Scenario Floors pace Change HaHaHa Land Space Density (m2) 2020200620 060606----26262626 (m2) Industrial 32 -18,706 -4.7 Warehousing 40 32,041 8.0 Industrial & Warehousing 13,334 3.3 Offices 18 29,561 7.4 Total B Space 56,229 10.7

Source: OE, RTP

6.49 As a result of the different structural profile this equates to a net addition of 56,000 sq m or 10.7 ha of land.

Scenario 3 ––– Raised Employment Rates

6.50 The proportion of total Tendring residents who are in employment is very low. This is due to a combination of three factors: low proportion of working age population, low economic activity rates and high unemployment. The biggest single factor is the age profile with a high proportion of elderly residents past retirement age who raise the dependency rate. Secondly, activity rates are low due to lack of job opportunities creating a ‘discouraged worker’ effect. If jobs are not available, people are less likely to look for them. Thirdly, even if people are seeking jobs then unemployment is relatively high. Thus only around 36% of Tendring residents are actually in employment compared to 45% for the region as a whole. 6.51 In 2006 the employment rate for Tendring in the OE model is estimated at 50.1% compared to 67.3% for the region as a whole. This differential is forecast to maintain (even widen slightly) over the forecast period. If, under the high economic activity scenario, this gap is closed by about three percentage points by 2026, then the employment rate for Tendring would be 55.4% compared to a regional average of 69.4%. The effect of such an increase would raise the number of employed residents in Tendring compared to the base case. 6.52 Under this scenario employment in Tendring then grows to 60,000. This would represent an increase of 12,800 jobs over the period 2006-26 (shown in Table 6.5).

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Table 666.6...5555 Forecast change in employment, Raised Employment RaRatete Scenario, 20062006---- 2026 Employment Rate Scenario 2006 2026 Change % Change

Industrial 6,014 5,325 -689 -11% Warehousing 2,999 3,898 900 30% Industrial & Warehousing 9,012 9,223 211 2%2%2% Offices 5,114 8,830 3,716 73% Total B Jobs 14,126 18,053 3,927 28% Non B Jobs 33,305 42,187 8,882 27% All Jobs 47,432 60,240 12,808 27%

Source: OE, RTP

6.53 This represents a huge transformational step-change from where Tendring is at present. It changes the nature of Tendring and makes it an area in which young and skilled workers want to both live and work. Such as transformation goes way beyond employment land policies. 6.54 It implies not only raising activity rates amongst Tendring’s existing population, but attracting a new younger workforce to come and live in the district. 6.55 This scenario generates a total demand for nearly 20ha of employment land, nearly 17ha of which would be for office-type use. This is shown in Table 6.6. Table 666.6...6666 Requirement for BB----classclass employment floorspace, Raised Employment RateRate Scenario, 20062006----20262026 Employment Rate Scenario Floors pace Change Density (m2) 2020200620 060606----26262626 (m2) HaHaHa Industrial 32 -22,046 -5.5 Warehousing 40 35,989 9.0 Industrial & Warehousing 13,943 3.5 Offices 18 66,887 16.7 Total B Space 80,830 20.2

Source: OE, RTP

NonNon----BB class uses

6.56 The importance of non-B class sectors in terms of current employment has been underlined in the socio-economic profile in Chapter 3. It means that their future employment prospects will have a significant impact on the economic performance of the district, its ability to fulfill its potential and its requirements for land. 6.57 Although land requirements are not quantified for retail, tourism, health and education as part of standard employment land studies, in this section we look at each of these sectors’ employment forecasts and explore the implications of meeting them. This is important because:
a higher share of employment is in non-B use sectors; and

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more jobs will be created in non-B use activities over the next 20 years (although in relative terms, growth will be proportionately higher in B-uses). 6.58 This is illustrated in Figure 6.3 below. Figure 666.6...3333 EmEmEmploymentEm ployment forecasts (RSS) for B and nonnon----BB uses

60,000

+ 2,300 50,000

40,000

30,000 No. jobs No.

20,000

+ 1,500

10,000

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

B-use jobs Non B-use jobs

Source: OE, RTP

Tourism 6.59 There is no ‘Tourism’ sector in the forecasts so we use ‘Hotels and Catering’ as an indicator of the prospects for this sector in the next 20 years. This is a good proxy as this Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) accounts for 80% of employment in the tourism sector as we defined it in Chapter 3. 6.60 Table 6.7 shows the expected employment growth in Hotels and Catering under the three forecasts and compares it to the growth experienced by the sector between 1998 and 2007. Table 666.6...7777 Employment change in Hotels & Catering 20062006- ---20262026 20062006----2026:2026: Av. Annual Av. Annual change: growth rate growth rate % change (2006(2006----26)26) (1998(1998----07)07) no. jobs RSS 119 3% 0.2% Bathside Bay 184 5% 0.3% 2.3% Employment rate increase 695 20% 0.9%

Source: OE, RTP, ABI 2007

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6.61 The RSS dwellings-constrained model projects a 3% growth in jobs numbers between 2006 and 2026, whilst the other two forecasts suggest a higher potential for the sector (5% and 20% respectively). This compares to 23% over the past 10 years, 1998-2007. 6.62 As the location of most tourism activity, the coastal areas and especially Clacton are likely to accommodate most of the employment growth in the sector. 6.63 Based on the existing research and our discussions with Council officers, in order to deliver change and boost Tendring’s competitiveness as a tourism destination, the district would need to do the following:
Continue to support an improvement in the quality of accommodation and facilities offered by caravan and holiday parks. They will continue to play a key role in the tourism offer in Tendring but need to respond to changing expectations from visitors. The Government’s “Tomorrow’s Tourism” strategy stated that there is “less demand for touring caravans and more holidays in static rented caravans”. According to Tendring’s Tourism Strategy, many of Tendring holiday parks have responded to market needs and invested in improving product quality and marketing.
Dramatically improve the quality of tourist accommodation and service. Hotel owners must be encouraged to become quality assured and upgrade their premises. Programmes 7 and 8 of the East of England Tourism Business Plan focus on the issues of quality assurance, training and business advice to guide operators in the sector towards the delivery of an improved offer.
Encourage large hotel chains to come and build in the district. This has occurred to some extent already with recently started development of a 57-room Travel Lodge and approval of a planning application for another 61-room hotel in Clacton.
Have an all-weather tourist attraction. This is felt to be lacking in Tendring and needed to smooth the seasonal impacts of tourism. Any such project would need sufficient critical mass and would require infrastructure investment, land, promotion and vision from the Council. One of the largest examples in the UK is the Eden project in Cornwall. More affordable options may include a CentreParc, theme parks or farms with indoor and outdoor activities.
Encourage the resorts to diversify their offer in order to attract visitors year round (business, education, conference, holidays, short breaks).
Deliver on the recommendations from the Tourism Study with regards to the potential of rural areas, as this is not optimised at the moment. 6.64 The North Essex Tourism study also identifies the need for new cinemas, cafes and restaurants and the potential for a casino, although it does not specify locations in the area for these facilities. Policy and land use considerations

6.65 The (now expired) Tendring Tourism Strategy stresses the strong desire to add to the attractions in the district. It recommends that the Local Plan should identify sites for leisure and tourism attractions but to make sure that they are viable from a market point of view. However, as it states:

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“No attempt should be made to impose planning restrictions to protect local tourism which cannot be justified or substantiated in the light of national and local trends…” 6.66 It also suggests any significant growth in the hotel sector is unlikely and that “the potential for increasing the number of day visitors is greater”. This places emphasis on town centres and attractions over hotels and guest houses in terms of land uses. However, there are qualitative issues which mean that new land might still be needed for hotels in order to upgrade the current stock.

6.67 The Tendring Local Plan recognises that continued growth in tourism and leisure can stimulate economic activity, investment and create new job opportunities including through planned diversification in rural areas. Whilst there is a section dedicated to Tourism and Leisure in the Local Plan, the sector is also impacted by other planning issues such as retail, town centres and environmental protection. Here we focused on the policies with a land use dimension. Key policies are:
Policy ER18 and ER19 regarding the protection of and extensions to caravan and chalet parks. The Local Plan safeguards them against redevelopment for alternative uses and encourages upgrading and the addition of new facilities. It permits extensions provided they bring improvements to the layout and amenity of the site whilst minimising the impact on surrounding landscape.
Policy ER22 concerns the development of new holiday villages. The quality of the accommodation and landscaping and road access are the main criteria for these types of proposals.
Policy ER24 and ER25 look at existing hotels and guest houses and the potential for new ones. The approach is similar to that for caravan and holiday parks: protect existing accommodation unless it is no longer viable and assess new proposals based on a mixture of accessibility, parking provision, quality of design and respect of the area’s character.
Policy ER27 which promotes the development of tourist facilities in the A120 Corridor.
Policy ER30 on casinos states that a casino will only be permitted in primarily non- residential parts of Clacton or Walton town centre or seafront. It would have to be accessible, avoid causing disturbances and do no harm to the retail and/or residential function of the area. 6.68 The Local Plan recognises the role of Clacton as the main tourist resort in the district and dedicates a special section to the town looking at Martello Bay and caravan parks. 6.69 The 1998 Adopted Local Plan allocated an area east of the Martello Bay housing development for a mixed-use water-sports centre. This area now contains facilities for coach and visitor parking, a launching ramp, a restaurant/pub and a coastguard station. The remaining vacant area, currently used for overflow car parking, could be developed for leisure and/or tourist related uses.

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Retail 6.70 Following the same approach as for Tourism, Table 6.8 shows the expected employment growth in Retail under the three selected forecasts and compares it to the growth experienced by the sector between 1998 and 2007. Table 666.6...8888 Employment change in Retail

20062006- ---20262026 20062006----2026:2026: Av. Annual Av. Annual change: growth rate growth rate % change (2006(2006----26)26) (1998(1998----07)07) no. jobs RSS 187 3% 0.1% Bathside Bay 1,000 16% 0.7% 2.9% Raised Employment rates 1,248 20% 0.9%

Source: OE, RTP, ABI 2007

According to the RSS forecast, employment growth in retail would, at most, amount to 3% over the 20 year period to 2026. The potential under the other two forecasts is significantly higher however, reaching 16% and 20%. 6.71 Based on the current distribution of retail activity and population, Clacton should be the key driver of growth. We look at what this means for the town based mostly on the North Essex Retail Strategy and our discussion with the Town Centre Manager. Clacton 6.72 The study recommends Clacton should not try and compete with Colchester or Chelmsford. The Council should aim to maintain and consolidate its shopping role in accordance with its designation as a major town centre. 6.73 The main overall priorities should be to: continue upgrading the public realm; improve the range and quality of the retail offer and assess the likely need for additional car parking. Clacton’s Town Centre Vision and Strategic Plan aim to produce a structured and ambitious approach to address these priorities. One of its key objectives is to revitalise the town centre by creating “a place for the people of Clacton with new retail opportunities, community, entertainment and civic uses and a vibrant public realm”. 6.74 With regards to specific categories of outlets, the council may consider policies which:
Aim to enhance the performance of foodstore provision in the town centre boundary, monitoring foodstore proposals elsewhere and resisting development where necessary.
Increase, improve and consolidate comparison goods retail space in Clacton. This means improving the range of key attractors and clothing retailers and providing the space to generate renewed demand to locate in the centre. These changes are necessary to meet the growing requirements and disposable income of shoppers in Tendring District and to claw back shoppers currently travelling to higher order centres for their main and luxury comparison goods shopping. 6.75 It is worth noting that some space has been freed recently as a result of the closure of Woolworths, although the store is likely to need refurbishment before it can be re-used.

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In addition, a study is underway looking at potential sites near/around the town centre for potential expansion. 6.76 The conclusion of the retail study for the other main centres in the district is summarised in Table 6.9 below. Table 666.6...9999 Conclusions of retail study, by centre

Town centre Capacity for further development

Frinton Continue to promote the town as visitor and tourist destination and place for specialist / independent retailers. Minimal capacity for additional space: - Small potential for new foodstore space (195sqm by 2021) - Small additional capacity for comparison goods space (1,500 sqm by 2021). No need for major development - More cafes The focus, in accordance with planning policy, is to focus development in the town centre. This has resulted in the recent refusal of a new Tesco – as part of a mixed used development – because it was located outside town centre boundaries. Harwich / Dovercourt Capacity for new foodstore floorspace for combined catchment area of 651 sqm by 2021. Comparison goods: potential for an additional 1,730 sqm in Harwich and 2,360 sqm in Dovercourt by 2021. Brightlingsea Convenience retail: “despite a deficiency in identified capacity, we consider it may be possible to increase market share to support new convenience goods floorspace if an appropriate site and proposal became available. Any scheme should however be directed to the town centre in the first instance to ensure no detrimental impact on existing foodstore provision” Comparion goods: minimal capacity for additional floorspace (406 sqm by 2021) and no need to identify new sites. Manningtree Minimal capacity for new foodstore space (162 sqm by 2021). However, an application for a new Tesco is pending approval. Should it be granted, the capacity for further development may disappear. Minimal capacity for convenience and comparison goods floorspace. WaltonWalton----onononon----thethethethe----NazeNaze Minimal capacity for new development for both convenience (140 sqm by 2021) and comparison(132 sqm by 2021) goods.

Source: GVA Grimley, North Essex Retail Study , 2006

Health 6.77 Table 6.10 shows the expected employment growth in Health & Social Work under the three selected forecasts and compares it to the growth experienced by the sector between 1998 and 2007.

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Table 666.6...10101010 Employment change in Health & Social Work 20062006- ---20262026 20062006----2026:2026: Av. Annual Av. Annual change: growth rate growth rate % change (2006(2006----26)26) (1998(1998----07)07) no. jobs RSS 1,359 17% 0.8% Bathside Bay 1,884 24% 1.1% 3.9% Raised Employment rates 2,838 36% 1.6%

Source: OE, RTP, ABI 2007

6.78 Employment in Health & Social Work in Tendring is projected to continue to expand over the next 20 years, increasing by almost 1,400 jobs (+17%) between 2006 and 2026 in the RSS forecast. 6.79 Given Tendring’s current structure of employment in the sector, this is most likely to occur in Social Work activities. However, a growing and ageing population will require more services both in Health and Social Work. The North Essex Health Strategy aims to:
provide more GP services that focus on reducing heart disease in high-risk groups in the deprived areas of North East Essex, subject to the success of a pilot project in Pier ward. These will include (in Tendring) Ramsey, Parkeston and Walton wards;
expand and develop the Cornerstone concept – a multi-agency health and welfare project – into Clacton;
expand services for children and young people;
provide more care for patients in a primary or community care setting; and
improve premises and, where appropriate, consider new – often joint- premises where needed. 6.80 To prepare for the sector’s future land requirements, the North East Essex PCT has produced an Estates Strategy 27 . In preparation for this, a survey of PCT owned buildings and GP primary care premises was undertaken between January and March 2008 to map existing facilities and assess their general condition. We must point out that this only covers primary care and does not include facilities such as dentists, pharmacies or social care. 6.81 Key influencing factors in the delivery and management of estates for primary care include:
the need to increase the number of health professional in areas which are under- provided for;
the survey of existing primary care estate to prioritise the need for refurbishment and identify new sites;
encouraging the merger of practices where feasible; and

27 North East Essex Primary Care Trust, Estates Strategy 2008-2011 , March 2008

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reviewing options for co-location and integration across GP practices, pharmacists, dentists and optometrists. 6.82 As it stands, according to the Estates Strategy, one development project was initially approved: Great Clacton and Holland on Sea. The original proposal for this scheme included a diagnostic treatment centre and centralisation of four GP practices. Planning consent was granted subject to the signing of a Section 106 agreement. This was however eventually declined by the PCT. 6.83 In addition to this, there is also an opportunity for a new purpose-built health facility at Bockings Elm, West Clacton, as part of a larger residential and mixed use scheme that includes 400 new homes, as allocated in the Council’s current Local Plan. This would be necessary in view of the current paucity of primary care in West Clacton. A piece of land has also been set aside in Jaywick for a primary care. Education 6.84 Table 6.11 shows the expected employment growth in Education under the three selected forecasts and compares it to the growth experienced by the sector between 1998 and 2007. Table 666.6...11111111:: Employment change in Education

20062006- ---20262026 20062006----2026:2026: Av. Annual Av. Annual change: % change growth rate growth rate no. jobs (2006(2006----26)26) (1998(1998----07)07)

RSS 388 10% 0.5%

Bathside Bay 568 14% 0.7% 4.9% Raised Employment 1,095 28% 1.2% rates

Source: OE, RTP, ABI 2007

6.85 Employment in Education in Tendring is projected to continue to expand over the next 20 years, increasing by 400 jobs (+10%) between 2006 and 2026 in the RSS forecast. 6.86 The LDF process and especially housing allocations will determine where and how many new school places need to be provided. For this result, as far as we understand it, there is no “estates strategy” as there is for the PCT. However, Essex County Council did produce a study estimating the likely number of school places in each district between 2007 and 2012 28 . The forecasts are based on previous historical trends, and additionally are shown with an adjustment for housing to indicate the potentially higher pupil numbers that would result from new housing developments in the area. 6.87 In Tendring, the outlook is for a surplus of primary school places at district level between 2007 and 2012. It is worth mentioning that large housing developments have

28 Essex County Council, The Essex School Organisation Plan 2007-2012

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taken place in Harwich, placing some pressure on school capacity. A surplus is also projected for secondary schools. 6.88 However the LDF process may alter area demographics in the event of further housing developments taking place, meaning the number of school places need to be monitored regularly. 6.89 It is also worth pointing out that this only covers schools and does not include nursery places or adult education for instance.

Conclusions

6.90 The important message from the sectoral projections is that for growth, and especially higher levels of growth, then this will come from business service type activities. Business services activities cover a wide range of activities including professional service activities (such as: legal activities, accountancy, market research, consultancy, advertising); creative activities (such as architecture, IT, graphic design); and back office services (such as secretarial and administrative support). Tendring is not expected to compete with major office centres. But many businesses in these sectors are small and Tendring offers quality of living features that may appeal to some entrepreneurs. 6.91 Whilst the current global recession will have some impact on firms in this sector, longer term growth over the course of the plan period is anticipated to return to its long run trajectory. 6.92 Rather than assuming that these are the forecast that will happen and should be prepared for, a better interpretation is that it reveals the underlying growth trends and structural factors. If Tendring is not well prepared to meet this new change then its future does not look so healthy. 6.93 Past growth in recent years has come on the back of the health and education sectors as these have been expanded by national government expenditure. It is unlikely, especially given the recent financial crisis that these sectors will continue to grow at the same rate over the next ten years and hence Tendring must look to a different source of employment if it is to provide the jobs to meet its rising population of workers. However there is still anticipated to be some further growth in the health and education sectors. As well as the land and property implications, employment growth in these sectors implies a very different workforce profile.

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777 SPATIAL IMPLICATIONS

Introduction

7.1 This section takes the three forecast scenarios presented in the previous chapter and analyses the spatial implications by the seven planning sub-areas. 7.2 Through the stakeholder consultations and workshop phase of the study a range of different views were expressed concerning the best locations in the district for encouraging new economic activity. Often these differences relate to different types of business. Amongst the views stated for best locations were the following:
A120 Corridor is good plus Harwich has a higher skilled workforce
Clacton because there is a large available workforce albeit low skilled
Colchester fringe because it is the best place to pick up re-locations
Weeley because it is central for all the population.
Land should be allocated around the small towns

RSS Baseline

7.3 Applying district forecasts to local sub-areas is not a precise forecasting exercise. The initial apportionment is done on the basis of existing economic structures. That is if, say, Clacton has 20% of employment in the retail sector it will get 20% of the projected growth (or loss) in that sector. 7.4 On this basis roughly half the total jobs growth would occur in Clacton with 18% in Frinton. This scenario fairly closely mirrors that based on housing distribution. However there are significant differences for both Harwich, which is under-represented and West Tendring which is over-represented. In both cases the explanation is structural. The trend growth variant, suggests the existing housing and employment balance is quite good. This is shown in Table 7.1. Table 777.7...1111 Jobs growth by subsub----area,area, RSS Scenario Structural Trend Jobs Growth Housing Distribution

Clacton 51% 1,932 50% Frinton 18% 679 15% Harwich 4% 149 15% Brightlingsea 5% 204 8% Manningtree 9% 359 8% Mid-Tendring 4% 138 2% West-Tendring 8% 321 2% Source: RTP

7.5 An alternative spatial distribution of the employment forecast might relate employment growth more in favour of land allocations or development proposals than structural trends. Supply side data does not appear to be wholly comprehensive, but serves as an indicator. The overwhelming allocation of land is in Harwich. If growth were to be

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distributed in proportion to existing employment land supply allocations then nearly 60% would occur in Harwich and 30% in Clacton. 7.6 Figure 7.1 illustrates employment growth by sub-area and broad type under the RSS Baseline. Almost half of the total 3,800 jobs come in Clacton and just over half of Clacton’s jobs will come in non-B space sectors. Figure 7.1 RSS Baseline Scenario --- Employment Change 20062006----2626 by Sub Area 5,000

4,000

3,000

Non B Jobs 2,000 Offices Industrial & Warehousing

1,000

0

-1,000

Source: RTP

7.7 Clacton would need to find just over 1,000 office type B1 jobs with this offset by a loss of 500 jobs in the industrial warehousing sectors. 7.8 Under this employment scenario each sub area would need to accommodate a small amount of employment space in B1 type sectors. It would imply a series of small office- type workspace units spread throughout the district. We would probably also expect to see a rise in home-working under this scenario. 7.9 Each sub-area would also be shedding some surplus or redundant industrial employment land.

Bathside Bay Scenario

7.10 This scenario has different structural and spatial implications as well as generating a different level of growth. However the difference is very concentrated. Under this scenario Harwich accounts for half of all employment growth with Clacton accounting for 30% of district employment growth.

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7.11 This is to be expected as the additional growth is physically located at the Port in Harwich and associated activity which will have located in close proximity to the Port. Under this scenario there is much higher growth in industrial and warehousing employment which is spatially concentrated in Harwich. 7.12 Whilst the jobs growth is concentrated in Harwich this will still provide opportunities for residents of other parts of the district. 7.13 Under this scenario employment growth in each of the other sub-areas is similar to the RSS Baseline. Figure 777.27.2 Bathside Scenario --- Employment Change 20062006----2626 by Sub Area

5,000

4,000

3,000

Non B Jobs 2,000 Offices Industrial & Warehousing

1,000

0

-1,000

Source: RTP

Raised Employment Rate Scenario

7.14 The raised employment rate scenario recognises that if Tendring is to achieve growth significantly above trend then this can only come from capturing a greater proportion of employment in the national growth sectors. These are primarily the business services sectors. 7.15 Tendring’s offer for this market generally is not strong as much of the district is too peripheral. But the west of the district abuts Colchester which has demonstrated an ability to develop a business park attracting a high level of business services employment. If Tendring is to achieve a step change in growth in such sectors then West Tendring is the location where this is most likely to be viable.

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7.16 Under this scenario West Tendring captures 20% of the total jobs growth of 12,800 and it captures 42% of the total office growth of 3,700 jobs. 7.17 Clacton remains the biggest centre for employment growth capturing 36% or 4,250 jobs in total. Most of these would be in the non-B space sectors such as tourism, leisure, retail, health and education. If Tendring is to achieve a higher level of growth in these population and consumer services sectors, then it is likely to be through concentrating expenditure on its largest town centre which would then serve as a better focus for the district as a whole. FiFiFigureFi gure 777.37.3 Raised Employment Rate --- Employment Change 20062006----2626 by Sub Area

5,000

4,000

3,000

Non B Jobs 2,000 Offices Industrial & Warehousing

1,000

0

-1,000

Source: RTP

Conclusions

7.18 Tendring has three distinct choices in terms of spatial options to pursue:
It can reinforce existing patterns of development in the district. Growth takes place proportionately in housing and employment terms in relation to existing settlement patterns. This will probably work well at low levels of growth but may be more problematic for higher levels of growth.
The second option is to concentrate employment in key areas of regeneration need. The objective would be to direct all new growth to Harwich and Clacton, by making these the only locations where employment land was allocated.

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The third option is to change the development pattern of the district and accept that to attract new businesses in modern industrial and business services a development crescent around the north west of the district represents the best option. 7.19 The best solution will probably be some form of hybrid option. For instance TDC may plan to accommodate baseline levels of employment growth according to the trend spatial option but in order to attract higher growth this is focussed on the Colchester fringe. The strategy has three particular focal points:
Clacton – which remains the biggest centre and where most of the jobs growth should come in the non- B space sectors such as retail, tourism, leisure, health and education. But there should also be growth in some business service sectors to diversify the local base.
Harwich – where growth comes from the port and the distribution and industrial activities associated with it.
Colchester fringe – where a new product is created for the district capturing growth in the expanding and higher value business services sectors 7.20 But the remaining sub-areas should also plan for modest growth to maintain local vibrancy. 7.21 A hybrid option is illustrated below in Figure 7.4. This is set between the Bathside Bay and Raised Employment Rate scenarios. Figure 7.4 Hybrid Option --- Employment ChaChangenge 20062006----2626 by Sub Area

5,000

4,000

3,000

Non B Jobs 2,000 Offices Industrial & Warehousing 1,000

0

-1,000

Source: RTP

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7.22 This produces job growth of just over 10,000 in total, or an average of 500 net additional jobs per year. Of these 3,500 are in Clacton, 2,900 in Harwich and 1,300 in West Tendring. The B-space floorspace implications for the district are summarised in Tables 7.2 and 7.3 below. Table 7.2 Forecast change in employment, Hybrid Scenario, 20062006----20262026 Hybrid Scenario 2006 2026 Change % Change Industrial 6,014 5,377 -637 -11% Warehousing 2,999 3,849 850 28% Industrial & Warehousing 9,012 9,226 214 2%2%2% Offices 5,114 7,793 2,679 52% Total B Jobs 14,126 17,019 2,893 20% Non B Jobs 33,305 40,565 7,260 22% All Jobs 47,432 57,585 10,153 21%

Source: RTP

Table 7.3 Requirement for BB----classclass employment floorspace, Hybrid Scenario, 20062006---- 2026 Hybrid Scenario Floors pace Change Density (m2) 2020200620 060606----26262626 (m2) HaHaHa Industrial 32 -20,376 -5.1 Warehousing 40 34,015 8.5 Industrial & Warehousing 13,639 3.4 Offices 18 48,224 12.1 Total B Space 61,863 15.5

Source: RTP

7.23 The requirement for approximately 16ha of employment land over the period 2006- 2026 would be set against an existing employment land supply of 71ha, but with only approximately 20% of this available in the short term. Therefore, if all or most of these existing allocations were suitable to deliver the B-class employment land requirements of the Hybrid Scenario, then the Council could choose to de-allocate the less suitable/deliverable employment sites. However, it will be for the Stage Two study to determine the appropriateness of the existing stock of employment land to deliver the preferred strategy.

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888 CONCLUSIONS

Overview

8.1 The current Tendring Local Plan was recently adopted in December 2007 and represents the extant plan up to 2011. The LDF will represent a new planning framework that is not tied to the policies of the Local Plan. It therefore provides a fresh opportunity to plan for the future of the district. 8.2 The development of the LDF is in its infancy. One of the principal roles of this study is to provide guidance on the types of issues that should be addressed through the Issues and Options process. 8.3 The requirements of the study are to consider the potential for employment growth within the context of the following spatial options:
A housing-led option that links housing with employment.
An employment-led option, where the location of housing development is made to match the spatial pattern of employment growth.
A focus of employment growth on the main regeneration areas of Clacton and Harwich.
An option where employment growth and housing growth are planned entirely independently.
An option whereby the planned development at Bathside Bay does not happen. 8.4 The work we have undertaken in Part One of the study has sought to look at three alternative scenarios for Tendring up to 2026 and beyond. It has also provided three employment forecasts of what that might translate to in terms of jobs for the district, and by planning sub-area. It is not necessarily appropriate to specifically pick one of these scenarios and aim to deliver exactly what is contained within the vision for that scenario. Rather, the role of the scenarios is to assist in understanding what scale and type of activity is needed to achieve a particular level of growth in the future, and how that would manifest itself spatially. Then it is important to understand whether that complements the wider spatial options being considered through the Issues and Options process. 8.5 It will be the role of the Part Two study to consider how appropriate the existing employment land is for delivering the preferred growth strategy. It will also then consider potential new sites that will address any shortfall in requirements provided by the current portfolio of sites.

Realistic PPProspectsProspects for Tendring

8.6 Three scenarios were presented for Tendring in 2026:
Mud Bound and Boggy – broadly equating to the RSS Scenario forecast, with district-wide employment growth of 3,800 jobs.
A Better Backwater – equating to the Bathside Bay forecast, with growth of 7,500 jobs.

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Shimmering Pond – equating to the Employment Rate forecast, with growth of 12,800 jobs. Mud Bound and Boggy 8.7 It is generally accepted that the Mud Bound and Boggy scenario can be achieved with minimal intervention. However, it must be borne in mind that this would not deliver the RSS 20-year requirement of 6,100 jobs (assuming that it was rolled forward to 2026). In this respect, it would potentially put additional pressure on other parts of the Haven Gateway, particularly Colchester, if the sub-regional vision is to be achieved. It also assumes that the Bathside Bay development does not happen so would certainly fail to deliver the aspirations of the Haven Gateway Integrated Development Programme. 8.8 Moreover, even this low level of growth assumes significant growth in office-based jobs. Most of these would be in Clacton (1,000 jobs) and Harwich (400 jobs). As the property market review shows, the current office market in these locations is extremely limited. What such growth would likely be supported by is significant housing growth in Clacton and, to a lesser extent, Harwich. 8.9 This would fit with two of the possible spatial planning options. Firstly, there is a clear need, based on the findings of the Affordable Housing Study, for strong housing growth in Clacton, so such a strategy would provide a clear linkage between homes and jobs. Secondly, both Clacton and Harwich are identified regeneration areas. 8.10 In addition, there would also be significant growth in non-B-class jobs, with the large majority of these being in Clacton. Again, this would fit well with any aspiration for significant housing growth in Clacton and the associated need for growth in town centre employment, particularly retail. A Better Backwater 8.11 A more realistic scenario for Tendring to aspire to is a Better Backwater. Based on the forecast that assumes development of Bathside Bay, this would potentially deliver in the order of 7,500 jobs, which is in excess of the current RSS 20-year requirement of 6,100 jobs. 8.12 It should be noted that recent work undertaken for Essex County Council 29 in respect of the RSS Review, suggests that the Essex Haven Gateway sub-region (i.e. Colchester and Tendring districts) could reasonably achieve housing and employment growth slightly in excess on the current RSS required annual rate. Therefore, this would reflect, at the very least, a good target to seek to plan for. 8.13 The required increase in office jobs would actually reduce under this scenario. It would therefore, in many respects, be a lower risk forecast than that required to achieve Mud Bound and Boggy. 8.14 To offset the lower proportion of housing growth, there would be a strong increase in industrial and warehousing jobs. This would largely be related to the development of

29 Roger Tym & Partners (2009) Greater Essex Study, Essex County Council

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Bathside Bay and would mostly be located in Harwich. This would assist with the regeneration option and also provide employment to complement the development of housing there. 8.15 There is also a significant increase in the proportion of non-B-class uses. Much of this is in sectors related to the development of Bathside Bay, so would again be located in Harwich. However, there would also be a greater proportion of employment in tourism, reflecting the scenario aspiration to improve the tourism offer. ShimmerShimmeringing Pond 8.16 This is the most ambitious scenario and would equate to the creation of over 12,800 jobs over a 20-year period. This would be substantially in excess of what is required by the existing RSS. The development of the evidence base for the RSS is only a few years old. This was examined and agreed to be sound. In order to justify a new employment target way in excess of this, it would need to demonstrate that this evidence base was fundamentally wrong. We do not consider this to be the case. There have been changes to the regional economy and the local economy has fared well in terms of job creation over the last few years, but not to such an extent as to render the evidence base intrinsically wrong. Moreover, the current recession is likely to put a brake on employment growth for at least two years, based on current forecasts. 8.17 So we do not consider that this scenario is achievable. Principally, it would involve a major increase in the number of office jobs created – nearly 5,000 in total across the district. The only way to make such large numbers of office jobs deliverable and attractive to the market, is to focus office growth in the west of the district. It would be more accessible and could feed off the strength of the Colchester office market. 8.18 However, such a strategy raises travel-to-work issues. If most of the housing growth was focused in the east of the district in Clacton and Harwich, then it would be more difficult for residents to access these job opportunities. Housing and employment growth would be spatially misaligned across the District. Furthermore, it is not realistic to consider that any strategy would be capable of delivering over 2,200 jobs in West Tendring. This would equate to a requirement for approximately 40,000sqm of floorspace in a business park development or series of developments. As a guideline, this is more B1 floorspace than is on the whole of the allocation at Severalls Business Park in Colchester. Bearing in mind that Colchester already has plans in its recently adopted Core Strategy to develop over 150,000sqm of B1 floorspace, then Tendring would be entering into a very competitive market. To provide such high levels of floorspace effectively in one area (‘Greater’ Colchester) would saturate the market and is not justified by even the most optimistic of employment forecasts. Potentially, if Tendring’s requirement for 40,000sqm was delivered and little or none came forward in Colchester, then this might have reasonable prospects of success. But to plan for such a strategy would be unrealistic and contrary to all the evidence, not least given Colchester’s established reputation as an office location.

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8.19 A further point to note is that such a development would likely require improved junction capacity created by the implementation of the planned new junction onto the A12 at Cuckoo Farm. Without these improvements, then the development would unlikely be capable of going ahead. Such significant infrastructure requirements without supporting growth of office space in Colchester also contributing towards costs, would place the deliverability of such a scheme in doubt. 8.20 The Shimmering Pond scenario would also involve substantial growth in non-B-class uses. Whereas much of this under the Better Backwater was related to the Bathside Bay development, as mentioned above this is not included in the scenario forecast. Again, the majority of this would be in Clacton and Harwich. Part of this would be serving indigenous population growth (particularly retail and public services) on the assumption that these would be where the majority of growth in housing would be delivered. Indeed, to deliver such high levels of non-B-class jobs, it is expected that there will be major housing development that will involve the need for new schools, medical facilities, etc, that bring large numbers of jobs. If alternative locations accommodated housing growth in more incremental amounts, then these levels of non-B-class growth would almost certainly not occur. 8.21 But this would not account for all of the non-B-class employment. Much of the growth not only in Clacton and Harwich, but also across the sub-areas of the district would be related to a growth in tourism. The description of the Shimmering Pond scenario shows what would be required to deliver a major step change in the tourist economy. We doubt whether this is achievable and would not recommend a focus on such a strategy until it could be demonstrated that such a step change was possible. The Preferred Approach 8.22 We recommend that the district, as a minimum, focuses on an employment strategy that seeks to deliver the Better Backwater scenario. However, we consider it a more ambitious aspiration to look to deliver in excess of this. Certainly this is not to say that the Shimmering Pond scenario is achievable – we do not consider that it is. However, somewhere in excess of the Better Backwater scenario which would deliver 7,500 jobs, is possible. 8.23 Such a strategy would fit with the more sustainable spatial planning options, with a focus on the regeneration areas of Clacton and Harwich coupled with a good match between the growth in dwellings and jobs. 8.24 We also feel that, to go beyond the Better Backwater, it is necessary to try and support some growth of the office market in West Tendring. The district cannot continue to rely on growth in non-B-class uses or on industrial and warehousing sectors which are in long term decline. It will be important to develop at least a fledgling office offer in the form of a business park. Ideally this would include some small units to continue to support the small businesses and sole traders that represent such a large part of the Tendring economy. 8.25 It is important to stress that this office offer must be relatively small – potentially no more than 10,000sqm – to start with. Colchester currently dominates the office market

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with several successful office developments, more in the pipeline and more planned through its Core Strategy. It is therefore an established office location, so to try and fundamentally alter this position from such a low existing office base would be highly risky and unlikely to attract commercial support. 8.26 However, there is little reason why Tendring cannot take advantage of the Colchester ‘effect’ to kick-start its own offer, particularly if it is complementary to the Colchester offer and to its large scale growth in the east of Colchester Town and at the Hythe. Even better would be to work with Colchester Borough Council to develop a joint approach in subsequent LDFs revisions, so as to reflect a more unified Essex Haven Gateway strategy. Much of the groundwork for this in terms of projects and securing funding for them has been laid through the development of the Haven Gateway Integrated Development Programme (IDP). This must be built on.

Recommended Planning StStrategyrategy to Support the PreferredPreferred Growth Scenario

8.27 Notwithstanding the assessment of the employment land supply in Part Two of the study, there are significant matters that need to be addressed in order to deliver the recommended preferred growth scenario, i.e. be capable of delivering in excess of approximately 10,000 jobs within the District. Therefore, to help inform the LDF spatial options we have set out the following planning strategy to be taken forward and developed. The Part Two study will pick up on this in light of the site assessment work. Harwich Area 8.28 If the committed major port development goes ahead at Bathside Bay later in the Plan period, significant areas of employment land will be likely to come forward, to provide for both linked and unlinked employment generating development. However, major port investment should not be viewed as the sole provider for economic development at Harwich as the estimated direct and indirect job generation total would only meet a small proportion (approximately 13%) of the overall target. 8.29 Also, in the absence of further major port investment, other initiatives will continue to be required to help underpin the local economy. In this regard, Harwich old town can be viewed as a valuable heritage asset, which has the potential to become a significant attractor in its own right, especially if supported by complementary initiatives within the town, on the quayside and at Navy Yard wharf. In this way, we see developing linkages with maritime connections and tourism development to be important, which could be facilitated through a combination of enabling development, marketing including media coverage and planning policies. West Tendring 8.30 Despite the close proximity of the North West parts of the District which abut the sub regional centre of Colchester, economic growth within and on the edge of the urban area of Colchester has out-stripped that which has occurred within the District itself. North West Tendring shares the locational advantages of parts of Colchester and significant economic growth in this area could potentially be achieved through the plan

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period if local planning policy allows. Similar to the development of the western fringes of Colchester, the eastern areas which largely fall within Tendring District, could provide for future development and growth if planned in a purposeful and coordinated way. 8.31 Although the Colchester fringe area is some distance from Tendring’s coastal towns and more remote rural areas, strategic development at this location could help generate a ‘ripple effect’ of growth. In this way, the outlying parts of the District could become more connected and less detached from the wider sub regional economy within the Haven Gateway Area generally. Road, bus and rail connections are in place to contribute to this form of urban regional growth, which could be gradually improved through further private and public infrastructure investment initiatives including the Haven Gateway Integrated Development Programme. 8.32 Comprehensive planning of the Colchester Fringe would require liaison with Colchester Borough Council and other key stake holders to ensure that infrastructure benefits such as the provision of improved road links and park and ride facilities are phased in a coordinated way. Clacton Area 8.33 Clacton, as the largest urban centre in the District, should continue to be the recipient of significant employment generating growth. Development should be phased to allow for the provision of suitable infrastructure and to ensure that environmental protection and mitigation measures are built in. 8.34 The delivery of employment generating uses through linked and phased mixed use (housing and employment) developments should represent an important requirement in the delivery of sustainable forms of development within the LDF Core Strategy. In this way, triggers included in subsequent S106 agreements may ensure that infrastructure measures related to employment zones are implemented following initial phases of linked new housing development. Other Coastal Towns 8.35 For the remaining coastal towns of Walton, Frinton and Brightlingsea we recommend that a policy of continued incremental growth is allowed for. Rural Areas 8.36 Tendring also has an extensive rural area containing a large number of villages which vary in size. Some of the larger villages such as Manningtree/Lawford, Kirby Cross and Great Bentley function as significant local employment and service centres. The cumulative impact of several small scale developments and initiatives (including home working) across the District can be significant and should therefore not be underestimated. 8.37 Future economic development potential in the rural areas should be encouraged in the form of the conversion of and extensions to existing buildings particularly within former agricultural units. Small scale Class B1 office unit complexes have thrived in such

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locations in other districts across the sub region as part of rural diversification initiatives and Tendring has the potential to follow suit. 8.38 Again, small scale development within and on the edge of villages on suitable sites, subject to environmental and transportation considerations, could also make a useful contribution towards local economic development. However, allowing for large scale general industrial growth in rural areas is unlikely to be a sustainable or viable option from both a planning and commercial marketing point of view.

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APPENDIX 111

Socio Economic Data

Figure A1 Tendring Sub Area ––– Relates to Figure 3.1 in main text

The map above shows the two sub area definition, RTP definition based on wards and the Districts council definition based on parishes and wards.

Table AAA1A111 Sub Area Industrial Structure --- Relates to Figure 3.2 Sectors Clacton Frinton Sub Harwich Manningtree Brightlingsea Mid West East GB Tendring Sub Area Area sub area sub area sub area Tendring Tendring Primary & Utilities 55 48 10 142 29 15 80 1,191 39,155 384,725 Manufacturing 1,328 192 595 461 232 88 265 3,159 260,600 2,863,419 Construction 532 238 120 296 234 132 310 1,860 126,521 1,257,235 Wholesale 316 106 58 60 29 376 137 2,402 113,035 1,092,603 Retailing 3,562 806 880 359 309 296 307 5,196 337,358 3,313,762 Hotel & Restaurant 1,623 478 516 145 86 46 174 3,067 144,149 1,785,995 Transport & Comms 468 118 1,645 271 155 14 151 2,824 150,223 1,549,663 Finance 629 49 81 30 31 10 9 839 72,952 1,028,625 Other FBS 1,096 360 371 222 359 138 272 2,811 410,341 4,562,233 Public Admin 799 52 320 13 26 1 1,212 106,262 1,460,722 Health & Education 5,185 1,276 1,008 928 757 264 627 10,045 501,102 5,630,121 Other Serv 1,161 289 236 77 149 31 70 2,014 117,028 1,391,486 Total 16,754 4,012 5,840 3,004 2,396 1,410 2,403 36,620 2,378,726 26,320,589

Note: The total number of jobs in the sub areas do not equate to the district total as the ABI shows errors for Agriculture at the lower level geographical ward level.

Table A2 Knowledge Based Employment ––– Relates to Figure 3.4 Mid Suffolk Babergh Colchester Ipswich Tendring East Great Britain Suffolk Coastal High Tech 574 321 294 483 588 379 44,612 428,649 Manufacturing FBS 2,231 7,493 10,903 2,185 2,416 1,883 264,905 3,237,571 Computing 531 709 969 426 760 346 68,051 623,143 Media 19 128 167 55 249 19 3,466 103,424 Communication 24 839 510 13 3,276 17 20,817 206,680 Total Knowledge 3,379 9,490 12,843 3,162 7,289 2,644 401,851 4,599,467 Total Jobs 31,700 69,893 68,549 31,775 47,174 36,725 2,378,726 26,320,590

Table A3 Resident and Workplace Earnings ––– Relates to Figures 3.5 and 3.10 Residents Workplace Ipswich 394 418 Babergh 407 342 Tendring 408 341 Colchester 451 414 Suffolk Coastal 452 429 Mid Suffolk 511 387 East 470 432 Great Britain 455 454

Table A4 Total Employment 19981998----20062006 ––– Relates to Figures 3.6 and 3.7 Area 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Barbergh 29,413 26,225 27,989 29,039 29,222 29,731 31,069 30,443 31,700 Colchester 65,794 66,296 70,181 68,462 68,655 71,383 71,690 70,839 69,893 Ipswich 61,575 59,689 65,347 66,987 68,485 67,125 68,309 66,980 68,549 Mid Suffolk 29,293 27,638 34,574 35,171 33,347 31,239 32,519 32,225 31,775 Suffolk Coastal 41,188 40,917 41,819 45,238 44,064 43,938 45,027 46,515 47,174 Tendring 30,926 31,145 32,807 33,387 35,570 35,581 35,592 36,479 36,725 East 2,187,834 2,149,675 2,241,151 2,266,097 2,283,569 2,304,676 2,302,988 2,360,749 2,378,726 Great Britain 24,354,983 24,827,357 25,214,647 25,490,315 25,593,747 25,710,646 26,067,531 26,496,642 26,320,590

Table A5 District QQualificationsualifications ––– Relates to Figure 3.8 All People No Quals & NVQ NVQ 4/5 111 Tendring 76,100 32,600 9,500 Barbergh 50,300 12,400 13,800 Colchester 110,400 27,700 33,100 Ipswich 74,300 21,600 16,200 Mid Suffolk 55,000 12,800 15,900 Suffolk Coastal 69,900 21,400 16,100 East 3,413,600 972,900 887,200 GB 36,472,700 9,743,100 10,428,100

Table A6 Sub Area Qualification ––– Relates to Figure 3.9 No Quals NVQ 1 NVQ 4 All People Clacton 19,461 7,721 3,664 44,162 Walton 5,229 2,236 1,858 14,052 Harwich 5,622 3,194 1,402 15,438 Manningtree 2,387 1,517 1,299 7,987 Brightlinsea 2,131 1,403 1,123 7,287 Mid Tendring 421 301 304 1,612 West Tendring 1,518 840 956 5,110 Tendring 36,769 17,212 10,606 95,648 East 1,085,265 707,196 704,743 3,884,104 England & Wales 10,937,042 6,230,033 7,432,962 37,607,438

Table A7 Mid Year Population Estimates ––– Relates to Figure 3.13 Age Structure Tendring East England 0-4' 6,500 331,900 3,038,400 5-14' 15,700 675,900 5,960,800 15-24' 15,500 700,600 6,812,000 25-44' 30,400 1,555,600 14,460,200 45-64' 39,600 1,447,200 12,661,300 65-74' 18,800 484,800 4,192,500 74+ 19,500 465,200 3,966,900 Total Population 146,200 5,661,200 51,092,100

The sum of the age categories may not equal the total population due to the numbers being rounded