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Employment Study: Part One Tendring District Council EMPLOYMENT STUDY: PART ONE with Final Report May 2009 ROGER TYM & PARTNERS Fairfax House 15 Fulwood Place London WC1V 6HU t (020) 7831 2711 f (020) 7831 7653 e [email protected] w www.tymconsult.com This document is formatted for doubledouble----sidedsided printingprinting. P1879 CONTENTS 111 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................................... ....................................................................................... .......... 111 The Study .......................................................................................................................... 1 222 POLICY FRAMEWORK ................................................................................................................................................................................... ............................................. 444 Planning Policy .................................................................................................................. 4 333 SOCIO ECONOMIC BASELBASELINEINEINEINE ................................................................................................................................................................................. ................. 272727 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 27 Workplace Economy ....................................................................................................... 28 The Residents ................................................................................................................. 49 Key Points ....................................................................................................................... 59 444 PROPERTY MARKET PROFPROFILEILEILEILE ................................................................................................................................................................................ ................ 616161 Floorspace Activity .......................................................................................................... 62 Rents ............................................................................................................................... 67 Profile of Occupiers ......................................................................................................... 69 555 QUALITATIVE FUTURES ––– SCENARIO BUILDING ........................................................................................................ 717171 Why scenario building is needed .................................................................................... 71 The context for scenario building in Tendring ................................................................. 72 The Scenarios ................................................................................................................. 74 666 FORECASTS ................................................................................................................................................................................... .......................................................................................... ............. 818181 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 81 Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 81 RSS Policy E1 ................................................................................................................. 82 RSS Baseline .................................................................................................................. 83 The demand for employment land .................................................................................. 85 Scenario 2 – Bathside Bay ............................................................................................... 88 Scenario 3 – Raised Employment Rates ......................................................................... 89 Non-B class uses ............................................................................................................. 90 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 98 777 SPATIAL IMPLICATIOIMPLICATIONSNSNSNS ................................................................................................................................................................................... ................................. 999999 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 99 RSS Baseline .................................................................................................................. 99 Bathside Bay Scenario .................................................................................................. 100 Raised Employment Rate Scenario .............................................................................. 101 Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 102 888 CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................... ..................................................................................... ................105105 Overview ........................................................................................................................ 105 Realistic prospects for Tendring .................................................................................... 105 Recommended Planning Strategy to Support the Preferred Growth Scenario ............ 109 APPENDICES Appendix 1 – Socio-Economic Data Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report 111 INTRODUCTION The Study 1.1 Roger Tym and Partners were commissioned by Tendring District Council in May 2008 to undertake this Employment Study. The study – which will be undertaken in two parts, with this report representing Part One - is more than simply an Employment Land Review, although this is an important function that the study fulfils, following the guidance provided by the Government in its 2004 Employment Land Reviews Guidance Note . 1.2 As stated in the brief, the Council requires: “…the outcomes of the commission to specifically provide a robust evidence base which will underpin key elements of the Council’s emerging Local Development Framework (LDF); in particular the Core Strategy (also incorporating strategic development control policies), and the Housing Allocations and Employment Allocations Local Development Document.” 1.3 It goes on to say that the outcomes will also: “…inform the development of local and sub-regional employment strategies and investment decisions (through the very act of satisfying the LDF requirements) in line with the corporate policies of the Council which focus on the role of employment (growth) in realising its regeneration priorities and having as its number one priority a strong local economy.” 1.4 The East of England Plan: Revision to the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) sets an employment growth target of 20,000 additional jobs for Colchester and Tendring districts (being the part of the Haven Gateway sub-region in Essex) between 2001 and 2021. The favoured split between the two districts apportions 6,100 jobs to Tendring. Between 2001 and 2008, more than 5,900 net new jobs have been created in the District 1. In other words, nearly all of the RSS requirement has been delivered in the first seven years of the 20-year RSS period. 1.5 Notwithstanding the current recession – which is likely to put a brake on any significant employment growth over the next two to three years - Tendring is certain to deliver the RSS requirement and will probably exceed it substantially by 2021. The need therefore is to reassess the prospects for the district’s economy and consider its potential up to 2026. Within this context, the Employment Study considers the demand for employment land in the District up to 2026 (and 2031 where appropriate) and the implications of accommodating employment growth. The associated analysis of the supply of employment land will be undertaken in Part Two of the study. 1.6 Unlike many employment land studies, this study recognises the growing contribution that is made by employment in non-B-class employment uses. In particular this relates 1 From EEDA projections – this is discussed in more detail in Chapter 6 Roger Tym & Partners with Lawson Planning Partnership, LSH and Newman Commercial May 2009 1 Tendring Employment Study – Part 1 Final Report to retail, leisure and tourism sectors and it is the role of this study to consider the demand for and supply of space for these. 1.7 The study will also seek to consider the alternatives that Tendring might want to aspire to and put in place the structure of a strategy for achieving this. In looking for a strong and robust evidence base for planning a long time into the future (in this case, at least 15 years), a scenario building/visioning approach is valuable. This helps to show where the district’s economy could be in the future and what it needs to do to get there.
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