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Sanrio (8136 / 8136 JP) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (03 Oct 14, ¥) 3,125 INITIATION

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Sanrio (8136 / 8136 JP) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (03 Oct 14, ¥) 3,125 INITIATION 06 October 2014 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Travel & Leisure (Personal Products (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT Sanrio (8136 / 8136 JP) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (03 Oct 14, ¥) 3,125 INITIATION Target price (¥) 3,950¹ Chg to TP (%) 26.4 FY3/16 warm if Sanrio can navigate the cold in FY3/15 Market cap. (¥ bn) 272.36 (US$ 2.50) Enterprise value (¥ bn) 243.75 ■ Initiate coverage: We initiate coverage of Sanrio with an OUTPERFORM rating Number of shares (mn) 87.15 and a ¥3,950 target price (potential return 26.4%). We expect: (1) benefits from Free float (%) 45.0 restructuring in Europe, (2) a projected recovery in the US, and (3) ongoing 52-week price range 6,050 - 2,598 growth in Asia to position profit momentum for a rebound in FY3/16. US-market *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. earnings in FY3/15 could be hit by factors related to the "cold": the chilly first- ¹Target price is for 12 months. quarter weather and the big Disney movie hit, Frozen. Sanrio's saviors have been the yen’s rapid depreciation and firm Asian operations, which we think will Research Analysts help keep full-year OP only 1% short of guidance. Masashi Mori 81 3 4550 9695 ■ Catalysts: We see outcomes for the Christmas sales season in the US as a [email protected] potential near-term catalyst. Considering the success of Frozen, we expect US sales for 2014 to decline 12% YoY in local currency terms (guidance is for a 4% dip). We forecast 1H OP at ¥8.7bn, down 9% YoY and 4% below guidance, and would view any share price weakness following the results announcement as a buy opportunity. In the medium term, we see the future management structure as a possible catalyst. Sanrio is addressing the management disruptions that have persisted since end-2013, and is gradually preparing to go on the offensive. The company could present an outline of its postponed medium-term plan as early as FY3/16. ■ Valuation/risks: Our TP is based on a P/E of roughly 22x and our FY3/16 forecast. Our multiple is the average for the last four years (since 2H 2010, when the business model changed substantially and investors started to take note). Considering: (1) increasing visibility for earnings to improve from FY3/16, (2) the strong likelihood of Sanrio boosting shareholder returns, and (3) considerable longer-term growth potential, we think the current below-average multiple undervalues the stock. Downside risks include waning popularity for the Hello Kitty character and disruptions to the overseas management structure if Rehito Hatoyama (Managing Director) retires. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/14A 3/15E 3/16E 3/17E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Sales (¥ bn) 77.0 80.4 85.1 88.0 8000 160 Operating profit (¥ bn) 21.0 21.7 24.2 26.5 6000 Recurring profit (¥ bn) 20.2 21.9 24.4 26.7 110 4000 Net income (¥ bn) 12.8 13.9 15.5 17.0 EPS (¥) 145.2 159.5 177.8 195.1 2000 60 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 166.8 181.9 182.9 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 2.2 9.8 11.5 9.7 TOPIX which closed at 1282.54 on 03/10/14 P/E (x) 24.0 19.6 17.6 16.0 On 03/10/14 the spot exchange rate was ¥108.9/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 EV/EBITDA(x) 12.4 10.5 9.2 8.2 Performance Over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 4.9 3.9 3.5 3.2 Absolute (%) 4.2 6.8 -46.9 ROE(%) 21.9 21.1 21.1 20.9 Relative (%) 5.7 7.0 -56.2 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 06 October 2014 Key charts Figure 1: OP and OP margin trend: Conditions difficult in Figure 2: OP by region: Americas struggling in FY3/15, FY3/15, but still set for record profits but offset by firmness in Asia (JPY bn) (%) Japan Europe Americas Asia 30 35 Operating profits OP margin (RHS) (JPY bn) 25 30 12 25 10 20 8 20 15 6 15 4 10 10 2 5 5 0 -2 0 0 -4 FY3/12 FY3/13 FY3/01 FY3/02 FY3/03 FY3/04 FY3/05 FY3/06 FY3/07 FY3/08 FY3/09 FY3/10 FY3/11 FY3/14 FY3/16E FY3/17E FY3/15E Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Chinese market growth: We expect apparel to Figure 4: US sales breakdown by customer: We see account for larger sales weighting in long term potential for sales growth of 2.4%/year Sales Next 5yr CAGR Sales Next 3yr CAGR Category Major customers breakdown sales growth breakdown sales growth Wal-Mart Stores 35% 3.2% Jewellery 20% 16.6% Apparel 5% 11.0% Target 17% 3.3% Other 75% 9.0% Toys "R" Us 8% 0.0% Kohl's 5% 1.1% Sanrio's sales breakdown- Macy's 5% 2.2% weighted top line growth 10.6% Other 30% 2.0% Sales breakdown-weighted growth rate 2.4% Notes: (1) Market growth rates on each category value basis in 2013– Notes: (1) Annual sales growth rate over next three years calculated 17 based on EuroMonitor forecasts.(2) Personal accessories growth by CS based on Bloomberg consensus forecasts.(2) Figures for Toys rate used for Other category. "R" Us based on actual results over past three years, as the company Source: EuroMonitor estimates, Company data, Credit Suisse is unlisted. (3) In calculating sales growth rates based on weighted average sales weightings, we used the apparel market growth rate (our estimate) for the Other growth rate. Source: Bloomberg, Company data, Credit Suisse Figure 5: Share price and catalysts: Fluctuated sharply over last 12 months on factors other than results (Index) (Yen) Versus TOPIX (LHS) 2Q results announcement: 150 Share price (RHS) full-year CoF revised upward, 7,000 140 DPS forecast raised Raised DPS 1Q FY3/14 OP 130 forecast +14% Vice-president 6,000 passed away 120 Full-year results DPS forecast briefing 110 raised 5,000 100 Announced share 90 buyback 4,000 80 Full-year results announcement: Three companies that are 70 FY3/13 OP +7%, FY3/14 CoF OP major shareholders 3,000 +6%, annual dividend forecast announce sell-off (ca. 7% 60 raised from ¥45 to ¥60 of shares out) 50 2,000 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Sanrio (8136 / 8136 JP) 2 06 October 2014 Investment themes Initiate coverage with OUTPERFORM rating and ¥3,950 TP We initiate coverage of Sanrio with an OUTPERFORM rating and a ¥3,950 TP (potential return 26.4%). We expect: (1) benefits from restructuring in Europe, (2) a projected recovery in the US, and (3) ongoing growth in Asia to position profit momentum for a rebound in FY3/16. US-market earnings in FY3/15 could be hit by factors related to the "cold": the chilly first- quarter weather and the big Disney movie hit, Frozen. Sanrio's saviors have been the yen’s rapid depreciation and firm Asian operations, which we think will help keep full- FY3/15 OP only 1% short of guidance. In the medium term, we forecast steady growth for the licensing business centered on the globally popular Hello Kitty character will support annual OP growth of 8% over the next three years. We think there is still considerable room for Sanrio to extend its marketing reach (mainly in emerging markets) as its characters become more widely recognized, and accordingly estimate that its longer-term growth potential remains substantial. Catalysts: Succession plan still unclear Sanrio’s succession plan has been unclear since Senior Executive Vice-president Kunihiko Tsuji passed away in November 2013. President Shintaro Tsuji has stated publicly that it will take more than two years to choose a successor, so we will not be able to form a picture of the future management structure for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the company has adopted a dual management structure whereby President Tsuji mainly oversees domestic operations and Managing Director Hatoyama is responsible chiefly for overseas operations. Although Sanrio’s management team has been the object of considerable conjecture, we think both Mr. Tsuji and Mr. Hatoyama are working diligently to increase the number of Sanrio customers around the world, and estimate that the company’s basic business plans are also oriented to this goal. Some observers believe Mr. Hatoyama may retire (for reasons unknown), but we think the factors just mentioned argue against this happening at this stage.
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