每日港股簡評
Yesterday, Hang Seng Index rises to 20-month high to near 30,000 level as Market Overview mainland China fund inflows lift market to best start to year. The Hang Seng Index surged 779pts to 29,642pts. The daily turnover surged to HKD301.5b. Mainland fund inflows through the Stock Connect programme have been the biggest catalyst for the city’s stocks in the new year. Southbound capital yesterday was another record at net flow HKD26.6b and flow into the names, including Tencent (700 HK) (HKD4.8b), HKEx (388 HK) (HKD3.3b), Meituan-W (3690 HK) (HKD1.6b), Xiaomi-W (1810 HK) (HKD1.5b) and China Mobile (941 HK) (HKD1.5b). Company-news: Geely (parentco of Geely Auto (175 HK)) announced that it formed a new strategic partnership with Tencent (700 HK) to jointly develop smart cabin technology, digitization, autonomous driving technology.
Company News ------Nexteer (1316 HK) General Motors is Nexteer’s biggest client, accounting for c.37% of Nexteer’s revenue in 1H20. At the Consumer Electronics Show, GM showcased its proprietary Ultium Battery System and laid out its plans to offer 30 BEV models globally by end-2025E. GM also announced that it would expand its Super Cruise ADAS system application to over 22 models. In 2020, Nexteer has made progress in NEV and ADAS-related technology development: its JV with Continental was announced in Dec 2020 for Brake-to-Steer technology that provides an additional layer of steering control for vehicles that have autonomous driving systems. Valuation-wise, Nexteer is now trading at a 14x 2021 PER, which is lower than its auto parts suppliers, such as Minth (425 HK) of 17x and Fuyao (3606 HK) of 27x.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) GWM sold 1.11m units in 2020 (+4.8% YoY), led by pick-ups (+51% YoY) and Ora (+45% YoY). In 2021E, apart from the newly-launched models in 4Q20 (including Havel Dago, Ora Haomao and Tank 300) and Havel First Love in Jan 2021, there are 9 more new models in pipeline. The upgrade models for 2021 include in VV5, VV6 and VV7 in the WEY series; Pao’s pick-up; and F7, H2 and H5 for Haval. GWM also plans to launch a new BEV model and some PHEV models based on the Lemon Platform. According to GWM, 40% of its new cars in 2020 were equipped with L2 level of autonomous driving. Also, GWM announced it will incorporate Lidar in its cars to be launched in 2021E, enabling GWM to be one of the first 5 OEMs in China that would equip their cars with the advanced sensor.
China Feihe (6186 HK) Market expects Feihe will continue its strong momentum and gain further market share in China vs. global brands in 2021E. It is expected that Feihe to achieve a c.20-25% sales CAGR over 2020-2023E, despite the slowing low single digit industry growth from declining birth rates. Several key growth drivers will be: solid near-term momentum, super premium expansion and new product launches, and category and overseas market expansion. Feihe gradually expands its leadership in baby formula, the company has repeatedly mentioned its second wave of growth, i.e. expanding into new categories. In the longer run, Feihe will look to target overseas markets. M&A expansion would be a possible way to achieve its aims given that Feihe has a strong balance sheet and steady cashflow.
CNOOC (883 HK) CNOOC will be hosting its annual 2021 Strategy Preview in early Feb, and market expects its management to provide a positive guidance, including: (1) Production: After the lowered production target in 2020 (505-515mmboe) due to lower oil prices, CNOOC is expected to resume its growth trajectory to c.6% p.a. in 2021E and beyond in order to achieve its 2mb/d ambition by 2025E; (2) Capex: CNOOC sets its budget for RMB85-95b capex spend for 2021E (up 6-19%) , as the company continues to focus on domestic exploration & development along with the Chinese government’s push on energy security.
CPIC (2601 HK) Its 2020 total life premium was down 1.8% YoY, implying a 1.9% YoY rise in Dec, a sequential improvement from Nov (-3.5% YoY). New business (NB) sales from agents growth recovery momentum continued in Dec, as CPIC shifted its focus to chase 2020 targets following the successful launch of 2021 jumpstart pre-sales in Nov and Oct. Its P&C premium growth remained stronger than other large listed peers, thanks to robust non-auto premium growth and aggressive business acquisition of auto insurance. With solid jumpstart pre-sales, market is confident about its new business sales turnaround in 1Q21 and a potential stock re-rating, given a likely life-management upgrade. Valuation-wise, the name is trading at 0.57x P/EV with an attractive and steady dividend of 4%.
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