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Leshi Internet (A-Share) Way More Than Hardware

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Leshi Internet (A-Share) Way More Than Hardware CHINA Leshi Internet (A-share) Way more than hardware . We initiate coverage of Leshi Internet (乐视网) with an Outperform and a TP of Rmb50 with 37% upside. Competitively priced and well designed, we expect Leshi will grow the installed base from 10mn TVs and 20mn smartphones in 2016 to 27mn and 61mn, respectively, by 2018, setting the foundation for Leshi’s eco-system as well as monetization through membership subscriptions and advertising. We believe all these will drive a 50% revenue CAGR and 48% earnings CAGR between 2015 and 2018. 300104 CH Outperform . Cash flow overhang eased with Sunac investment. Since late 2016, cash flow issues surfaced at the parent level, particularly with the handset supply Price (at 14:52, 27 Jan 2017 GMT) Rmb36.60 chain with Rmb10-15bn in overdue bills estimated by the industry and media. Valuation Rmb 50.00 In Jan 2017, Sunac and others invested Rmb17bn into Leshi. Of which, - Sum of Parts Rmb7.1bn will support listco’s investments in video content and computing 12-month target Rmb 50.00 infrastructure. Another Rmb4.1-6.7bn in cash along with better alignment of Upside/Downside % +36.6 handset sales and the cash flow cycle will address the handset supply chain 12-month TSR % +36.8 overhang. At the listco level, we expect operating cash flow to improve from GICS sector Software & Services Rmb0.4bn in 2016 to Rmb3.8bn 2017. Market cap Rmb 72,529 . Ecosystem founded on vast hardware installed base. Competitively priced m and well designed with the latest features including 3D, UHD and curved Market cap US$m 10,545 displays, Leshi is on track to achieve the annual target of 8mn in 2017, or Free float % 65 about 10%+ market share in China’s TV market, from nowhere when its first 30-day avg turnover US$m 202.3 TV debuted in 2013. Relatively late as an entrant in China’s smartphone Number shares on issue m 1,982 rd market, from its first Le 1 series in mid-2015 to now the 3 generation Le Pro 3, Investment fundamentals Leshi is on track to sell 19mn in 2017, or <5% market share. We expect the Year end 31 Dec 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E hardware revenue to grow at a CAGR of 55% between 2015 and 2018. Revenue m 13,017 25,891 35,308 43,798 EBITDA m 1,538 3,676 5,636 8,042 . From hardware to membership and advertising. About 80-90% of Leshi’s EBITDA growth % 31.2 139.0 53.3 42.7 EBIT m -9 3 1,033 2,080 TV buyers also subscribe to a Leshi Video membership and 20-30% to a EBIT growth % nmf nmf nmf 101.5 Leshi smartphone. Original content, licensed content, films and dramas from Adjusted profit m 573 672 1,299 1,848 EPS adj Rmb 0.31 0.35 0.65 0.90 Le Vision Pictures, Flower Film & TV, and sports content from LeSports EPS adj growth % 55.0 12.5 85.9 39.5 comprise a rich content portfolio. As such, we expect Leshi’s membership and PER adj x 118.5 105.3 56.7 40.6 Total DPS Rmb 0.03 0.03 0.06 0.09 ad revenue to grow at a 51% and 39% CAGR during 2015 to 2018. Total div yield % 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Strategically, hardware subsidies are to incentivise membership and drive ROE % 16.1 9.9 9.3 9.7 Net debt/equity % 77.1 46.8 -13.7 -9.4 advertising. We project revenue from subscriptions and ads should help lift P/BV x 17.9 7.4 4.1 3.8 OPM from 0% in 2016 to 2.9/4.7% in 2017/18. Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2017 . More asset injections to come. Leshi has announced intentions to inject the (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in CNY) movie production arm Le Vision Pictures (LeVP) into the listco in 2017. The TV maker Leshi Zhi Xin is growing its shipments and lifting profitability with an aim to inject into the listco by 2020. LeSports, with 3rd biggest mobile monthly Analyst(s) active users (MAU), is also in the pipeline but there is no timeline yet. The last Wendy Huang, CFA +852 3922 3378 [email protected] financing rounds value LeVP, Leshi Zhi Xin and LeSports at Rmb7bn, Hillman Chan, CFA Rmb30bn+ and Rmb20bn+ relative to listco’s market cap of Rmb76bn. +852 3922 3716 [email protected] Tingting Si . Valuation. We value Leshi at Rmb50 based on a SOTP with 80% of the +852 3922 1321 [email protected] Ivy Luo valuation from the video business including advertising and membership +852 3922 1507 [email protected] subscriptions. Our net income is 10% and 9% above Wind consensus in 2017 Joe Yu and 2018 for better margin improvement in TVs. Downside risks. Hardware +852 3922 1160 [email protected] execution incl. cash flow management for the supply chain, a cash shortfall in 3 February 2017 the auto business, development and licensing of quality content offerings, and Macquarie Capital Limited recruiting new membership subscriptions in the face of fierce competition. Please refer to page 25 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. Macquarie Research Leshi Internet (A-share) Inside Company profile Valuation 3 . Leshi is one of the top 6 online video platforms on mobile in China by MAU and time spent. Over the years, it has built a portfolio of content offerings Competitive HW spec/pricing drive including original content, licensed content, films and dramas from Le Vision subscriptions and advertising 7 Pictures Flower Film & TV, and sports content. It started to launch its own Rich content investments as core brand of TVs in 2013 and smartphones in 2015 to drive membership competencies 11 subscriptions. Post Sunac’s investment, Jia Yueting, founder and Chairman of Financial analysis 14 Leshi, along with Leshi Holding will have a 26.45% stake in the listco, and Macquarie Quant View 23 Sunac will have an 8.61% stake. Leshi’s eco-system focuses on content, applications and devices. Content: Leshi’s original content, licensed content, movies and TV dramas from Le Vision Pictures (to be injected in 2017) and Flower Film & TV (100%-owned and consolidated into listco in 2013), as well as LeSports Fig 1 Revenue breakdown by segment (outside of listco). Applications/platforms: Letv.com, LeCloud and LeMall (2016E) are the key platforms for videos and hardware. Devices: content is distributed on Leshi-branded TVs from Leshi Zhi Xin (40% owned by listco and Technical Others services 1% consolidated to listco) and smartphones (outside of listco). 1% Advertising 15% . To map Leshi’s eco-system to the financials of listco: video ads on Letv.com Membership and and mobile app generate advertising revenue (15% of 2016E revenue). distribution 28% Smart TV sales from Leshi Zhi Xin contribute to hardware revenue (55%). Membership subscriptions on a monthly or yearly basis on PC, mobile, TV and smartphones drive membership and distribution revenue (26%). Fig 3 Leshi’s eco-system and shareholding structure (post Sunac Hardware 55% investment) Jia Yueting Source: Macquarie Research, February 2017 / Leshi Holding Leshi Internet 26.4% (listco) 28.4% Undisclosed Content 100% <10% Undisclosed Flower Film & TV LeSports Le Vision Pictures Le Music Fig 2 300104 CH rel CSI 300 (consolidated) performance, & rec history 100% 50% 30% 40% Applicatons/ Undisclosed platforms Letv.com LeCloud LeMall wangjiu (consolidated) (consolidated) (consolidated) .com 40.3% Undisclosed Devices Leshi Zhi Xin <20% Leshi Mobile Undisclosed Electric vehicles (TV maker) (Handset maker) (FF, LeSEE) (consolidated) 18.4% Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, February 2017; *consolidated = consolidated into listed company Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, February 2017 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in CNY) Fig 4 Shareholding of Leshi Internet (listco)* Jia Yueting, Leshi Holding 26% Others Sunac 55% 9% China Bridge Capital 4% Liu Hong (mgmt) Jia Yuemin (mgmt) 3% Central Huijin 2% 1% Source: Company data, cninfo, February 2017; *post Sunac’s investment 3 February 2017 2 Macquarie Research Leshi Internet (A-share) Valuation . We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and with a target price of Rmb50 based on SOTP valuation. Our SOTP is based on 2018 rather than 2017 to reflect 1) a more relevant hardware installed base (27mn TVs and 61mn smartphones) and no. of membership subscriptions in Leshi’s eco-system in 2018 as 2017 is still a transformation year, i.e. only 2nd year in Leshi’s membership era, and also to reflect 2) margin improvement on the back of new hardware-driven revenue streams from memberships and advertising and operating leverage. Our TP implies a 56x 2018E PE, about 1x standard deviation above the median level i.e. 38x the historical trading range of 21-55x. SOTP valuation . Based on a 2018 SOTP valuation, we value Leshi at Rmb50 per share with about 80% of the valuation coming from the video business, including advertising and membership subscriptions. Video. We use 4x 2018E P/S to value Leshi’s video business, comparable to our target multiple for the A-share peer Baofeng and at a premium to the acquisition valuation of Youku at 2x. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Information Technology Index was trading at a 100%+ premium on average to the MSCI China Information Technology Index in the past 5 years. We value the video business at Rmb81bn, or Rmb40 per share. TV. We use 0.7x 2018E P/S, in line with A-share TV maker Hisense, to value the TV manufacturing arm Leshi Zhixin and reach a valuation of Rmb5.7bn (40% stake of Rmb14bn), or Rmb3 per share.
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