2017The state of the UK’s 2017 1 Contents

05 Headlines 06 Introduction 08 Wild indicators 10 Common and widespread breeding birds 17 Scarce and rare breeding birds 22 Recent surveys 25 Breeding seabirds in the UK 28 Feature article: and birds 41 Wintering waterbirds 48 Birds in the UK Overseas Territories 52 Current and planned surveys 54 Acknowledgements 55 Who we are: contact details

All bird are shown in bold. There are now 67 species identified as being of the greatest conservation concern that are Red-listed, 96 species of moderate concern that are Amber-listed and 81 species of least concern that are Green-listed as identified by Birds of Conservation Concern 4 (BoCC4). Non native species are shown Numbers of Arctic terns have in black.

been increasing, but like other This report should be referenced as: Hayhow DB, Ausden MA, Bradbury RB, Burnell D, Copeland AI, Crick HQP, Eaton MA, Frost T, Grice PV, Hall C, Harris seabirds reliant on sandeels, SJ, Morecroft MD, Noble DG, Pearce-Higgins JW, Watts O, Williams JM, The state of the UK’s birds 2017. The RSPB, BTO, WWT, DAERA, JNCC, NE they may be at risk of decline and NRW, Sandy, Bedfordshire.

Steve Knell (rspb-images.com) Steve due to climate change.

2 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 3 The UK’s population of Headlines common scoters has • Climate change will provide opportunities for some species, while others declined severely. will be more vulnerable. • Birds in the UK are showing changes in abundance and distribution, predominantly moving northwards, in a way that is consistent with a changing climate.

• Migratory birds are arriving earlier and egg-laying dates have advanced such that swallows, for example, are arriving in the UK 15 days earlier, and breeding 11 days earlier, than they did in the 1960s.

• A large number of bird species are likely to have opportunities for colonisation and range expansion in the UK under projected climate change. Potential colonists include a number of wetland species such as little and night . A considerable list of southerly-distributed species have already shown substantial increases in recent years, including garganey, quail and little egret.

• Climate change will increase the pressures on species already in decline. A number of our declining rare breeding birds, including dotterel, whimbrel, common scoter and Slavonian grebe, are likely to be at a higher risk of extinction in the UK, based on projections of how climate will become less suitable for them.

• The UK’s kittiwake population has declined by 70% since 1986 because of falling breeding success and adult survival. Climate change has reduced the availability of the sandeels they rely upon in the breeding season. Other species that feed largely on sandeels, such as Arctic skua, Arctic tern and puffin, are at high risk of climate-related decline.

• National surveys provided updated population estimates for capercaillie and hen harrier and revealed declines for both species.

• In the UK Overseas Territories, there are positive signs of recovery for four endemic land birds on Henderson Island and updates on a successful translocation project for the cahow. Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay

4 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 5 Introduction Volunteers play a crucial role in monitoring the UK’s bird life. The state of the UK’s birds (SUKB) report provides a one-stop shop for the results from annual, periodic and one-off surveys and monitoring studies of birds.

Since 1999, these reports have to the world’s biodiversity, and are likely to respond to climate provided an annual overview of one that is projected to become change in the future are examined. the status of bird populations increasingly severe through the We highlight those species in the UK and its Overseas course of this century. Large-scale considered particularly vulnerable Territories. We present trends monitoring programmes, such as to, or potentially able to benefit for as many of the UK’s regularly those reviewed annually in SUKB, from, climate change, bearing occurring species as possible. have provided data for a number of in mind the many other drivers The 2017 edition also focuses on cross-species analyses to examine that are likely to interact with the considerable impact climate the impacts of climate change. climate change. In the light of change has had, is currently having this evidence, we discuss the and is likely to have in the future We review this research to conservation response required to on bird populations in the UK. present the current evidence for meet the challenges presented by how climate change is already climate change in order to maintain Climate change is widely cited as affecting our bird life. Projections and, where possible, enhance the one of the most significant threats of how species populations status of our bird life.

A special thank you to volunteers

Bird monitoring in the UK is led by Many thousands of people take the commitment of carrying out non-governmental organisations part in bird monitoring each year in monthly counts, to the casual (NGOs) and the UK’s statutory the UK. The vital data for analyses records submitted to BirdTrack – nature conservation bodies. to detect large-scale and long-term but every contribution is valuable However, such monitoring would patterns, and to identify where and adds to the expanding evidence not be possible without the pressures, such as climate change, base. If you are one of these efforts of many thousands of may be affecting populations, volunteers, thank you. If not, how volunteers. Without their time and come from the monitoring about getting involved in one of dedication, the evidence base on programmes and surveys featured the wide variety of monitoring which bird conservation in the UK in SUKB. The amount of time each opportunities outlined on pages depends would simply not exist. person spends may vary – from 52–53 of this report?

The SUKB partnership

SUKB 2017 is produced by a the Department of Agriculture, coalition of three NGOs: the Environment and Rural Affairs, Royal Society for the Protection Northern Ireland (DAERA), of Birds (RSPB), the British Trust the Joint Nature Conservation

for Ornithology (BTO) and the Committee (JNCC), Natural David(rspb-images.com) Woodfall Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT), England (NE), Natural Resources together with the UK’s statutory Wales (NRW) and Scottish Natural nature conservation bodies: Heritage (SNH).

6 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 7 Wild bird indicators: farmland, woodland and wetland

The figure in brackets shows the number of Breeding farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2016. species used in the indicator.

120 The line graph shows the unsmoothed Wild bird indicators United Kingdom trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend 100 (solid line) with its 95% confidence The UK wild bird indicators are track progress towards targets (page 41). The bar chart provided interval (shaded). 80 100 All farmland birds (19) Strong high-level measures of the state for conserving the natural alongside each habitat chart (see 120 90 United Kingdom increase 60 80 Weak increase The bar chart shows the percentage of of bird populations. They show environment and for sustainable opposite) shows the percentage 70 100 60 No change species within the indicator that have relative changes in the abundance development goals. of species within that indicator Rapid changes in farmland Index (1970=100) 40 management 50 increased, declined, or shown no change of common and widespread native that have increased, decreased 80 All farmland birds (19) 10040 Weak decline 30 Strong (based on set thresholds of change). 20 90 increase

birds of farmland, woodland, The indicators are shown by or shown no change. While the 120 Percentage of species 20 Whether an individual species is increasing 60 United Kingdom 80 WeakStrong increase freshwater and marine habitats. habitat type. They present the indicators communicate broad 7010 decline or decreasing has been decided by its 1000 600 No change Rapid changes in farmland Long term Short term Index (1970=100) 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 rate of annual change over the time period In conjunction with indicators average population trends for trends and are a good tool for 40 management 50 40 Weak decline (long or short) of assessment. If the rate of 80 All farmland birds (19) 10030 for other well-monitored groups, breeding bird species associated summarising these changes, 20 Strong

Percentage of species 90 annual change would lead to a population 20 increaseStrong such as butterflies and bats, with farmland, woodland and it is important to note that there 12060 1080 Weakdecline increase decrease of between 25% and 49% over 0 United Kingdom 700 they are used as a proxy for the wetlands, and for seabirds (page is considerable variation in the 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 60 Long term Short term No change 25 years, the species is said to have shown Rapid changes in farmland Index (1970=100) 100 40 management 50 a “weak decline”. If the rate of annual overall state of biodiversity, to 25) and wintering waterbirds individual species’ trends that Breeding woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2016. 40 Weak decline 100 30 Strong change would lead to a population decrease go into the indicator. 8020 90 increase

Percentage of species 20 120 80 Strong of 50% or more over 25 years, the species 10 Weakdecline United Kingdom 600 All Woodland birds (37) 700 increase is said to have shown a “strong decline”. UK wild bird indicators: farmland, woodland and wetland 1001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 60 Long term Short term The corresponding values for increases are 50 No

Index (1970=100) 40 10040 changeStrong between a 33% and a 100% increase over management during the period 80 90 increase Trends in common and become more suitable for 30 Weak 25 years (weak increase) or greater than 20 Percentage of species 80 decline has had a greater impact on 120 20 Weak 70 100% (strong increase). These thresholds widespread breeding birds are some species in the indicator, 60 All WoodlandUnited birds Kingdom (37) 10 Strongincrease 60 decline farmland birds than other 0 0 are the same as used to define severe and Tony Hamblin (rspb-images.com) included in the farmland, such as the lesser spotted 1001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 50 Long term Short term No

Index (1970=100) 40 factors such as climate 40 change moderate levels of decline in the Birds of woodland and wetland indicators. woodpecker and nightingale. 100 Strong change. 80 9030 increaseWeak Conservation Concern status assessment 20 Percentage of species decline But such changes are unlikely 8020 for birds in the UK. 10 StrongWeak • The farmland indicator remains 12060 All WoodlandUnited birds Kingdom (37) 70 declineincrease • The woodland bird indicator to counterbalance other 0 600 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Long term Short term at less than half its 1970 is 23% lower than its 1970 negative drivers causing 50 No For details of species’ trends in each Index (1970=100) 10040 starting value, while over the 40 change indicator, download the datasheet: level, showing no significant declines in woodland birds. 30 Weak

20 Percentage of species decline https://www.gov.uk/government/ 80 20 Strong short term, between 2010 and change over the short term. Other species, particularly United Kingdom 100 120 10 Strongincrease statistical-data-sets/env07-wild-bird- 90 decline 2015, the smoothed index has The climatic conditions of long-distance migrants, such 600 All water and wetland birds (26) 800 Weak populations-in-the-uk 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Long term Short term increase decreased by 9%. Agricultural 100 70 woodlands in the UK might as the pied flycatcher and Breeding wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2016. 60 No Index (1975=100) 40 50 change Source: BTO, Defra, JNCC and RSPB tree pipit, may be vulnerable 80 10040 Strong 30 increaseWeak to ongoing changes in the 12020 United Kingdom 90 decline 60 All water and wetland birds (26) Percentage of species 8020 Weak 10 increaseStrong timing of availability on 70 decline 1000 600 No Index (1975=100) 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Long term Short term their breeding grounds, and 40 50 change 80 40 the impacts of climate change 10030 StrongWeak 20 increasedecline on their wintering grounds Percentage of species 9020 60 All water and wetland birds (26) 8010 StrongWeak increasedecline affecting overwinter survival. 0 700 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 60 Long term Short term No Index (1975=100) • The water and wetland bird 40 50 change 40 index is 8% lower than the 30 Weak 20 decline

Percentage of species 20 1975 starting value, having 10 Strong

David J Slater (rspb-images.com) David decline 0 0 remained relatively stable until 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Long term Short term the mid-2000s. The smoothed index was 2% lower in 2015 than it was in 2010. The arrival and subsequent population expansion of Cetti’s warblers breeding in the UK since 1973 is seen as an example of the northward shift in distribution Lesser spotted woodpecker of some species as a result of climate change. numbers have fallen since Long-distance migrants like pied flycatchers may have trouble finding insect prey on their breeding grounds. the 1970s.

8 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 9 Common and widespread breeding birds

Long-term For most species, long-term trends and BBS trend % Species trend % BoCC4 short-term trends are based on smoothed (1995–2015) (1970–2015) estimates of change in the UK between 1970 and 2015, and 1995 and 2015 Common and Mute swan 192 26 respectively. Although all data, including Greylag goose na 232 the most recent from 2016, are included in Canada goose na 75 analyses, we report measures of change Shelduck1 131 -5 to the penultimate year (2015), to avoid widespread unreliable effects due to smoothing at the Mandarin na 405 endpoints of time series. Gadwall na 131 Mallard 100 18 Exceptions to these time periods are breeding birds Tufted duck na 43 identified in the table and explained below: 1. For most species, the long-term trends Goosander na 21 are based on the smoothed estimates Red grouse na 13 Keeping tabs on population Data from the Breeding Bird these data, 2,796 volunteers of change between 1970 and 2015 in a Red-legged partridge -26 6 combined CBC–BBS analysis. However, changes in our common and Survey (BBS) and its predecessor surveyed a record breaking Grey partridge -92 -60 for species with evidence of marked widespread birds allows us to gain survey, the Common Birds 3,837 1-km BBS squares. Pheasant1 70 29 differences in the populations monitored by the BBS and its predecessor the CBC, an insight into the overall health Census (CBC), can be combined Grey heron2 -5 -17 of the environment around us, as to provide long-term population The Waterways Breeding we use the CBC results to 1994 anchored Little grebe na 42 shown by the regular summaries trends dating back to the 1960s. Bird Survey (WBBS) and to the BBS from 1994 to 2015. Hence, Great crested grebe na 10 long-term trends for these species may of trends presented in the UK its predecessor survey, the Red kite na 1231 not be representative of the UK population wild bird indicators (see page 9). In 2016, Breeding Bird Survey Waterways Bird Survey (WBS), prior to 1994, due to the more limited Sparrowhawk3 65 -16 However, knowing how individual data alone enabled population fill a gap in our knowledge of geographical and habitat coverage of the Buzzard1 465 84 species are faring is essential for trends to be calculated for specialist species of linear CBC (mainly farmland and woodland sites Kestrel1 -50 -38 directing conservation efforts and 111 species of breeding birds, waterways, such as grey in England). Hobby na -12 monitoring the effectiveness of monitoring population change wagtails, sand martins, dippers, Peregrine na -13 2. For five riverine species a smoothed this work. since 1994. In order to obtain kingfishers and common trend for both time periods is calculated Moorhen -27 -12 sandpipers. Population trends by combining the WBS and WBBS data Coot 56 17 can be calculated since 1970 as follows: 1975–2015 for grey wagtails, Oystercatcher na -23 using WBBS and WBS data dippers, kingfishers and common sandpipers and 1978–2015 for sand combined. Although the BBS Golden plover na -20 Lapwing -64 -43 martins. For grey , the trend is does report trends, the WBBS based on the Heronries Census (1982–

is thought to provide a better Snipe na 19 2015) (page 52). 1 measure of population change Curlew -65 -48 2 in these species, which are very Common sandpiper -46 -34 3. Long-term trends cover shorter time Redshank na -38 periods for three species due to the later Ben Andrew Andrew (rspb-images.com) Ben much dependent on waterways availability of reliable data, as follows: Feral pigeon na -21 habitats. In addition, for these 1972–2015 for collared doves, 1975–2015 1 species and others, we can make Stock dove 113 20 for sparrowhawks and 1977–2015 for informative comparisons between Woodpigeon 123 35 house sparrows. trends across all habitats (from Collared dove3 311 3 na = trends not available BBS) and the waterway-specific Turtle dove -98 -94 Ring-necked parakeet na 1455 trends produced by WBBS. More details on the BBS, Cuckoo1 -56 -43 including The Breeding Bird The table opposite (continued Barn owl na 217 Survey 2016 report, overleaf) presents trends in 108 Little owl -64 -57 can be found at bto.org/bbs Tawny owl -37 -28 breeding bird species, along BTO/JNCC/RSPB Breeding Bird Survey and with notes about the sources Swift na -51 Waterways Breeding Bird Survey data were of data. Where possible, trends Kingfisher2 -17 -4 provided by a partnership jointly funded by are given for two periods: long- Green woodpecker1 100 31 the BTO, RSPB and JNCC, with fieldwork term (1970–2015) and BBS trend Great spotted woodpecker 349 130 conducted by volunteers. The Waterways Breeding Bird Survey received significant Magpie 97 -2 (1995–2015). As well as the CBC, previous support from the Environment BBS, WBS and WBBS, trends in Jay 8 19 Agency. the population are Jackdaw 149 54 reported using the oldest single- Rook na -20 More details on the BBS, including the species survey in the world: the Carrion crow1 98 18 Breeding Bird Survey 2016 report, can be found at bto.org/bbs BTO Heronries Census, which Hooded crow na 17 has been monitoring grey herons Raven na 46 The Waterways Breeding Bird Survey provides information on kingfishers. since 1928. Goldcrest1 -15 11 Blue tit 21 1

10 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 11 Common and widespread breeding birds Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Long-term BBS trend % Species trend % BoCC4 (1995–2015) (1970–2015) 81 37 Coal tit 16 0

Chris Knights (rspb-images.com) Willow tit -93 -80 Marsh tit -75 -41 Skylark1 -59 -22 Sand martin2 7 -30 Swallow 8 18 House martin1 -48 -11 Long-tailed tit1 98 17 Wood warbler na -57 Chiffchaff 104 109 The wood warbler is one of many 1 Willow warbler -44 -11 woodland species in decline. Blackcap 289 145 Garden warbler -10 -23

Lesser whitethroat 22 6 John Bridges (rspb-images.com) Whitethroat 6 30 warbler na -17 Sedge warbler -28 -9 Reed warbler 112 17 Nuthatch 252 90 Treecreeper -10 9 Wren 68 32 Starling1 -81 -51 Dipper2 -22 -6 Blackbird -16 22 Song thrush -50 22 Mistle thrush -55 -25 Spotted flycatcher -85 -38 Robin 55 25 Nightingale na -48 The nuthatch is expanding its range Pied flycatcher na -41 further north in Scotland. Redstart 72 43 Whinchat na -51 fotailia.com Stonechat na 53 Wheatear na -16 Dunnock -29 23 House sparrow3 -66 -6 Tree sparrow1 -90 119 Yellow wagtail -67 -42 Grey wagtail2 -39 4 Pied wagtail 39 0 Tree pipit -69 8 Meadow pipit1 -34 -7 Chaffinch 21 -2 Farmland birds Greenfinch -46 -46 Goldfinch1 159 122 Siskin na 61 like corn buntings 1 Linnet -55 -21 Lesser redpoll1 -87 27 need help to survive Common crossbill na -2 Bullfinch -39 10 Dunnock alongside modern Yellowhammer -56 -16 Reed bunting -31 31 farming practices. Corn bunting -89 -34

12 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 13 Common and widespread breeding birds Common and widespread breeding birds

9000 3 Adaptability The BTO Heronries Census shows how England’s grey heron 8000 2 As the climate changes, The ability to adapt to a changing willow warblers, house martins population has experienced adaptability will be essential environment varies between and tree pipits. 7000 C) marked fluctuations (line) in 1 (° in enabling bird populations to species. Cuckoos populations response to the previous 6000 persist. The great tit is one of declined by 43% in the UK Habitat extent and distribution 0 winter’s temperatures (bars), a number of species, including between 1995 and 2015. will change as a result of climate 5000

but with an overall increase of -1 swallows, chiffchaffs and willow change as well as other factors, 25% since 1928.* 4000 warblers, to have advanced its Whilst some have suggested that and this has implications for the -2 egg-laying date; great tits lay this could be due to advances ability of species to respond. While 3000 Winter temperature anomaly is the their eggs on average 11 days in the egg-laying date of host a species may be able to alter the -3 temperature for each year minus 2000 earlier than they did in 1968. species such as dunnocks and timing of life history events for English grey heron population

the mean winter temperature over Winter temperature anomaly Despite these changes in timing, reed warblers, there is little instance, the availability of suitable -4 the period of monitoring. 1000 there remains the potential for evidence for this in the UK. Other habitat will ultimately determine 0 -5 a mismatch in the timing of the factors during migration, as well whether a species can persist in a peak food demands of breeding as a decrease in food availability particular area, as well as its 250 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 birds and peak invertebrate prey on UK breeding grounds, may capacity to colonise Year availability. To date, this has not be more important. Notably, new areas.

Resident species trends200 vary geographically been directly linked to population cuckoos are faring better in declines or reduced breeding Scotland, with an increasing trend Resident species such as great success in the UK (see pages of 33% between 1995 and 2015. 250 tits, wrens and nuthatches 150 28–40). This pattern is also shown by a appear to be benefitting from number of our Afro-Palearctic milder winters. migrants, including 200 100 Index (1970 = 100 Country-specific trends for great tits and wrens show that 150 Northern Ireland increases have been greatest 50 Scotland Richard Bedford (rspb-images.com) in Northern Ireland, followed Wales Great tit by Scotland, with no significant England 100 difference between England and Index (1970 = 100 0 Wales. These patterns are likely 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 to be caused by overall population Northern Ireland 50 Scotland increases and improving climatic Wales conditions in the north and west. Great tit England

0 For more details, see: 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Expanding northwards bto.org/bbs-results Blackcaps and chiffchaffs – short- survival. Both blackcaps and Milder winters have helped distance migrants – have increased chiffchaffs are expanding their 250

Grahame Madge (rspb-images.com) great tits. by 289% and 104% respectively breeding range northwards and since 1970. Milder winters in the into higher altitudes, as the Around one quarter of the world’s UK and , where increasing climatic conditions become more curlews breed in the UK. 200 numbers of both species stay favourable. for the winter, boost overwinter 250 150 Pressures on upland birds 200 100 Index (1970 = 100 The decline in the curlew In addition, the drying of soils curlews and golden plovers, population is of great concern, on the breeding grounds, which feed to their young. Curlews 150 Northern Ireland especially when it is considered is already a problem due to the have declined by 65% between 50 Scotland Wales that the UK supports around a drainage of lowland meadows and 1970 and 2015 across the UK, and Wren England quarter of the global breeding upland bogs, may be exacerbated golden plovers by 31% between 100 Index (1970 = 100 population. Afforestation, by climate change. Wetter areas 1995 and 2015 in Scotland. 0 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 overgrazing and are are important sources of Northern Ireland likely to be key drivers of decline. which breeding waders, such as 50 Scotland Wales Wren England The state of the UK’s birds 2017 14 0 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 15 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Scarce and rare David Kjaer (rspb-images.com) David breeding birds

The Breeding Bird Survey cases, the RBBP simply reports distributions away from reserves, allows us to monitor trends the efforts of focused annual popular birdwatching locations, in more than 100 of our most monitoring on species of high and well-populated areas. common and widespread conservation interest, such as breeding birds. However, its and Slavonian grebes, For such species, bespoke non-targeted approach means but in many cases it provides a surveys repeated at regular that rarer breeding species, or unique synthesis by compiling intervals, such as those those with restricted ranges, are data from many sources. conducted under the Statutory encountered too infrequently for Conservation Agency and RSPB population trends to be derived. The degree to which species are Annual Breeding Bird Scheme monitored adequately by the (SCARABBS), provide the data Different approaches are RBBP varies considerably required to inform conservation needed to ensure that these between species; for some it is decision-making. Here we collate species, many of which are complete, or virtually so, whereas information from the most high conservation priorities, are for others, data are available for appropriate sources to give an monitored. Much of the data only a small proportion of the update on trends in scarce and on these species is collated by population, may vary between rare breeding birds. In addition, the Rare Breeding Birds Panel years, or are biased in other ways. we consider the impact that (RBBP), for the most part based This is particularly true for some climate change might have upon on the records collected by of the scarce species covered by these species, for better or worse. volunteer birdwatchers. In some the RBBP, and those that have Mark Sisson (rspb-images.com)

The UK was home to 164 booming male bitterns in 2017. The UK’s Slavonian grebe population declined by 61% over 25 years.

16 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 17 Scarce and rare breeding birds Species1 Population estimate2 Trend (% change) Trend source and period3 BoCC4

Whooper swan 26 584 RBBP Pintail 25 -14 RBBP Garganey 97 35 RBBP Pochard 685 157 RBBP Common scoter 37 -43 RBBP Goldeneye 200 (APEP) Increase RBBP Quail 728 43 RBBP Black grouse 5,100 (2005) -80 SCARABBS (1991/92-2005) Capercaillie 1,114 (2015/16) -49 SCARABBS (1992/93/94-2015/16) Red-throated diver 1,300 (2006) 38 SCARABBS (1994-2006) Black-throated diver 220 (2006) 16 SCARABBS (1985-2006) Bittern 164 (2017) 604 Annual surveys (1988/92-2013/17) Little egret 921 Large increase RBBP 12 Increase RBBP Slavonian grebe 28 -57 Annual surveys Black-necked grebe 54 44 RBBP Honey buzzard 40 219 RBBP White-tailed eagle 102 (2016) 902 Annual surveys (1987/91-2012/16) Marsh harrier 365 479 RBBP Hen harrier 545 (2016) 2 SCARABBS (1988/89-2016) Montagu's harrier 10 -15 RBBP Notes for table (opposite) Goshawk 542 2 74 RBBP 1 Trends for three rare breeding seabirds Golden eagle 508 (2015) 16 SCARABBS (1982-2015) – Arctic skuas, roseate terns and little Osprey 225 342 RBBP terns – are presented on page 27. Spotted crake 29 16 RBBP 2 Population estimates are based on the Corn crake 1200 146 Annual surveys (1993-2011/2015) most recent survey results (with the year 24 1,883 RBBP of origin in parentheses), or means of Stone-curlew 399 196 RBBP RBBP or annual survey totals from the five Avocet 1,791 368 RBBP years 2011–2015. For species for which Dotterel 423 (2011) -57 SCARABBS (1987/88-2011) RBBP totals may underestimate numbers, we have used alternative estimates from Little ringed plover 1,200 (2007) 80 Surveys (1984-2007) the Avian Population Estimates Panel (2009) Whimbrel 300 >-50 Surveys (1995-2009) (Musgrove, et al. (2013) British Birds Black-tailed godwit 54 -1 RBBP 106: 64–100). For those well-monitored Ruff 8 -72 RBBP species with increasing populations, we Purple sandpiper 1 -50 RBBP have used the most recently available year of data. Numbers are pairs, territories or Red-necked phalarope 49 195 RBBP units which are likely to be equivalent to Green sandpiper 3 Increase RBBP breeding pairs, but for the RBBP, numbers Wood sandpiper 29 663 RBBP are based on possible breeding attempts Mediterranean gull 889 9,158 RBBP and include, for example, single territorial male birds and so do not necessarily Yellow-legged gull 3 Increase RBBP equate to successful breeding attempts. (APEP) Lesser-spotted woodpecker 1,000-2,000 -83 CBC-BBS joint trend (1970-2015) Thus for the golden oriole we present an Merlin 1,100 (2008) 94 SCARABBS (1983/84-2008) average population of two, based on the Hobby 2,800 (APEP) 172 RBBP continued occurrence of small numbers of Peregrine falcon 1,505 (2014) 5 SCARABBS (1992-2014) unpaired birds each spring. The estimate for the capercaillie is individuals counted Golden oriole 2 -93 RBBP in the winter. Red-backed shrike 4 -50 RBBP Chough 354 (2014) -1 SCARABBS (1982-2014) 3 RBBP and annual survey trends are five- Firecrest 981 1063 RBBP year means calculated for a 25-year period between 1986–1990 and 2011–2015. The Bearded tit 595 64 RBBP

trend periods for those species covered Chris Gomersall (rspb-images.com) (2006) Woodlark 3,100 1,086 SCARABBS (1986-2006) by periodic surveys, such as under Red-throated divers Cetti's warbler 1,827 718 RBBP SCARABBS, are given. RBBP trends for Dartford warbler 3,200 (2006) 70 RBBP common scoters and spotted crakes have been given despite SCARABBS breed on remote Savi's warbler 5 -65 RBBP coverage, as they allow a 25-year trend to Marsh warbler 8 -66 RBBP be given rather than just 12 years between (2012) Ring Ouzel 5,332 -72 Atlas & SCARABBS (1988/91-2012) surveys. Species that have colonised the lochs in north and Fieldfare 2 -80 RBBP UK since the start of the 25-year period Redwing 19 -54 RBBP cannot have percentage figures calculated, so we have just noted that an increase Black redstart 56 -45 RBBP west Scotland. has occurred. Cirl bunting 1,079 (2016) 814 SCARABBS (1989-2016)

18 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 19 Scarce and rare breeding birds Scarce and rare breeding birds

Species with Species with Scarce and rare breeding birds: high likelihood Habitat high likelihood Habitat opportunity and vulnerability of colonisation of colonisation Black kite Wetland Black-winged stilt Wetland [White-spotted] Bluethroat Wetland Short-toed eagle Farmland Our rare breeding birds often Species with a Species with a Zitting cisticola Wetland Red-backed shrike Farmland occur here at the edge of their high likelihood Habitat high likelihood Habitat breeding ranges. For the very of extinction* of extinction* Night heron Wetland Melodious warbler Woodland smallest populations, this means Purple sandpiper Upland Turtle dove** Farmland Little bittern Wetland Short-toed treecreeper Woodland that the risk of extinction is very Whimbrel Upland Brambling Woodland Purple heron Wetland high, but most of the species Snow bunting Upland Parrot crossbill Woodland in this section are vulnerable to Dotterel Upland Scottish crossbill Woodland UK will become less suitable. In associated with wetlands, and that spotted bluethroats have held chance effects and can also be Common scoter Wetland Capercaillie Woodland the case of purple sandpiper, most species have first become territory. very sensitive to changes in the Slavonian grebe Wetland Redwing Woodland whimbrel, dotterel, common established in protected areas. environment around them. Ruff Wetland Willow tit** Woodland scoter, capercaillie (see page Other potential colonists – zitting Pintail Wetland Arctic skua Seabird 22), Arctic skua and Slavonian Of those species considered likely cisticolas and short-toed Projections of how climate change Marsh warbler Wetland Leach’s petrel Seabird grebe, the effect is likely to be colonists, a number are already at eagles remain great rarities in would influence the ranges of more detrimental as their UK least occasional breeders. the UK – as does the short-toed birds across Europe have been *Risk of extinction assessed following method described in Ausden et al 2015. populations are already in decline. This year’s data are still coming in, treecreeper, although they are tested against past population **For completeness, turtle doves and willow tits included due to rate of current decline, but already suggest that 2017 was resident on the Channel Islands. trends for rare breeding birds in despite projections for climate to remain suitable. Species thought to have a high an amazing year: the UK, and a positive relationship likelihood of colonising the UK Of course, changes in our climate was found. The UK’s rare breeders on both current population trends might be driven by factors other include a number that have bred • Night herons were recorded will influence many more of have been responding to climate and projections of climate-driven than climate change. The recent here previously. The breeding for the first time in the species listed on page 18. change as predicted, both range shifts, assuming a 3°C rise in rapid decline in turtle doves, red-backed shrike, once the UK; A considerable list of southerly positively and negatively. global temperatures above which is giving rise to fears of widespread over much of England • Cattle egrets, which had distributed species in the UK, pre-industrial times. A species extinction for this and Wales, declined steadily from only previously bred in 2008 some of them relatively recent Species currently only found to was considered to be at risk if the much-loved species, appears to the middle of the 19th century and possibly 2009, bred at a colonists, have shown substantial the south of the UK are projected UK’s future climate is expected to be unrelated to climate change. onwards until the last regularly- number of new sites; increases in recent years, including to shift north and east, and to become very unsuitable for it and Likewise, increases in some breeding pair disappeared from • Black-winged stilts had by garganeys, quails, little egrets higher elevations as the climate it has declined here since 1990. southern European wetland Santon Downham, Norfolk, in far their most successful (first bred in the UK in 1996), there becomes more suitable. The review also identified likely species, such as egrets, may be 1989. Since that time breeding breeding season in the UK honey buzzards, hobbies, little Conversely, those birds which avian colonists, using the same related to better protection and has been sporadic. It appeared (six pairs fledging 13 young – ringed plovers, Mediterranean have their southern, “trailing” modelling approach and habitat provision instead of, or as that colonisation of the Scottish more than the total number gulls (1968), firecrests(1962), range edge within the UK are evidence of recent well as, climate change. Here we Highlands might be ongoing, but of young fledged from all 22 bearded tits, woodlarks, Cetti’s likely to decline as that edge increases in north- list just those species assessed this faltered as with the wryneck, nesting attempts in the UK warblers (1973). moves north, or even moves out west Europe. as having a high likelihood of now extinct as a breeding species between 1983 and 2016). of the UK altogether. extinction, or of colonisation. in the UK (see SUKB 2016). More individuals disperse into For some, these increases may In some cases, north-west Europe following have been helped by climate A recent review assessed which both potential Most of the species Red-backed shrikes are thought dry winters in south-west change, but for others the species might go extinct as regular extinctions and thought to have a to have been lost from the UK Europe, and such conditions principal causes may be different,

Roger Tidman Roger (rspb-images.com) breeding species in the UK, based colonisations high likelihood of as a result of habitat loss and are expected to become more such as the focused conservation extinction a decline in the availability of frequent and severe; action aimed at saving the cirl are already particularly rare as their large invertebrate prey • bred at two bunting, which was described in breeders in the UK. However, due to agricultural change. new sites; SUKB 2016. three – Leach’s petrel, turtle But recent increases on the • The number of great white dove and Scottish crossbill – are near-continent, coupled with a egrets breeding increased to Further reading: commoner species, not currently number of breeding attempts 11–12 pairs, including at a Ausden et al. 2015a. Climate below the approximate threshold in southern England, raise the new site in Norfolk; change and Britain’s birdlife: what of 2,000 pairs which qualifies a intriguing possibility that it might • Little bitterns returned might we expect? British Wildlife species for RBBP monitoring. make a comeback, although how to Avalon Marshes in the 26(3): 161–174. extensive that could be remains Somerset Levels for the The assessments of high to be seen. ninth year in a row. Hiley JR et al. (2014) Introduced potential for extinction are and natural colonists show Six pairs of related to climate change for It is notable that many of the In addition, in recent years purple contrasting patterns of protected black-winged stilts most of the species listed, as species which have recently herons have bred in Kent, a pair area association in UK wetlands. bred in the UK in 2017, the projected shifts in suitable colonised the UK, or which appear of glossy ibises have built a nest Diversity and Distributions 20(8): fledging 13 young. climatic conditions mean that the to be on the verge of doing so, are in Lincolnshire, and male white- 943–951.

20 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 21 Recent surveys Recent surveys Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) National capercaillie survey 2015-16

The capercaillie is a spectacular, birds can be avoided. Nearly 750 survey in 1992–94, and is now large woodland grouse of old 2km long triangular line transects very much at the lower end of this world boreal and temperate were surveyed throughout the range. Conservation measures forests. But across much of its species’ known range between to reduce fence collisions have fragmented European range, November 2015 and March 2016. been undertaken in established populations are declining. woodland, but fences remain In Scotland, its population has The capercaillie population was an issue in areas of new forest decreased substantially in estimated as 1,114 individuals planting. However, increasing numbers and range since the mid- (95% confidence limits: breeding success has proved 1970s. Poor breeding success 805–1,505) compared with 1,285 much more difficult. and increased mortality of adults, individuals (95% CL: 822–1,882) due to collisions with deer fences, in winter 2009-10. This represents Over the last decade, wetter have contributed to this decline. a non-significant 13% decline, but June weather has become more a significant decline of 43% since frequent, in line with expected The fifth national survey was the 2003–04 survey estimate of climate change. Breeding success undertaken during the winter 1,980 individuals (95% CL: is known to be adversely affected of 2015–16, by the RSPB and 1,284–2,758). by high rainfall in June when SNH. Capercaillie are surveyed the chicks hatch, and by delayed in winter, when the birds feed Over the longer term, it appears warming in spring. Understanding The hen harrier population declined by 27% over the last 12 years. in the tree canopy and are more the population has been how rainfall affects breeding easily detected by observers, and fluctuating between 1,000 and success, and how patterns of National hen harrier survey 2016 disturbance to sensitive breeding 2,000 birds since the first national rainfall might change in the future will be important in assessing the The fifth UK and Isle of Man population fell from 12 pairs in driven grouse moor management vulnerability of the population to hen harrier survey was conducted 2010 to just four pairs in 2016. in northern England and parts of climate change and the relative in 2016, with the number of mainland Scotland. In Northern importance of other drivers. territorial pairs estimated at Hen harriers have been slowly Ireland, damage to nests and 575 (95% CL, 478–695): a recovering in Wales since habitat by wildfires has been a Even when weather conditions non-significant 13% decline re-colonising in the late 1950s, significant recent issue. Other are suitable, predation can still be since the previous survey in but the latest figures show that pressures such as cold and wet a problem, probably exacerbated 2010. Comparison with the the number of pairs has fallen weather conditions over a number by the small size and fragmented estimate from the 2004 survey, by more than a third over the of breeding seasons, changes in

Dave Braddock (rspb-images.com) Braddock Dave nature of forests in much of their demonstrates a significant decline past six years, from 57 to 35. habitat management and low prey Scottish range, which provide of 27% over the past 12 years. With 46 pairs in 2016, Northern abundance may all have had an easier access for predators. Ireland also experienced a decline impact on numbers throughout In addition, human disturbance In Scotland, the population was in pairs after the 59 recorded in the UK. can cause capercaillie to avoid estimated at 460 territorial pairs the previous survey. On the Isle otherwise suitable habitat, which (95% CL, 359–573), this being of Man, hen harrier numbers Survey coverage was much may limit the potential 80% of all UK and Isle of Man remained stable, with 30 pairs greater than the previous surveys for population expansion. pairs in 2016. The majority of recorded in 2016, up one on the across all regions, carried out these were found in the west, 2010 totals. by a partnership involving the The concerted conservation while Orkney and the Hebrides RSPB, Natural England, Natural action, by private landowners, were the only areas of the The population changes detected Resources Wales, Scottish Natural NGOs and statutory and country to show a slight increase since the last survey are likely Heritage, Scottish Raptor Study government agencies, of the last in the number of pairs since 2010. to be caused by a combination Group, Northern England Raptor two decades appears to have of factors, varying from region Forum, Northern Ireland Raptor halted or slowed the decline, The survey also revealed that to region. It is known that the Study Group and Manx BirdLife. but these latest results highlight the hen harrier remains on the main factor limiting the UK hen that the population remains at a brink of extinction as a breeding harrier population is the illegal critically low level. species in England, as the killing of birds associated with The capercaillie population is estimated at 1,114 birds.

22 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 23 Recent surveys

House martin survey Breeding seabirds in the UK A survey of house martins was which nests could be built) undertaken across the UK in 2015. were surveyed by more Since 1986, breeding seabird The SMP receives data on the wider marine environment. Organised by the BTO, one of than 2,100 volunteers. of active nests (assumed colonies around the UK and seabird breeding abundance SMP data are used for several the main objectives of this Squares were surveyed to reflect the number Ireland have been monitored and productivity from up to 500 regional, national and international volunteer-based survey was to one to three times over the of breeding pairs), is now annually by the Seabird Monitoring different seabird colonies each agreements, as well as providing estimate the total number of season from mid-May to ca 650,000 to 850,000 pairs Programme (SMP), co-ordinated year. Trends from these data allow the broad-scale measurement of breeding house martins, as the end of July. Each square of which roughly 500,000 are by JNCC, with surveys undertaken us to assess the state of many of the state of the UK’s breeding well as to collect information was searched thoroughly for estimated to be in England, by partner organisations and our breeding seabird populations, seabird populations. on variation in their densities house martin colonies (varying 150,000 in Scotland, 70,000 in dedicated volunteers. help us to identify the drivers in different landscapes, and on from none to more than 60), and Wales and 30,000 in Northern of change, and help us to make You can see the full SMP report at the structures on which they the number of occupied nests Ireland. As might be expected, inferences about the health of jncc.defra.gov.uk/page-3201 build their nests. The survey per colony was recorded (varying the vast majority of colonies were

House martin by David Tipling (rspb-images.com) David House martin by was based on 1-km squares and from one to dozens). Additional located on houses, with relatively used a stratified random design information, such as building few located on barns, municipal UK seabird indicator (based on habitat and previous type, and the aspect and surface buildings, factories or churches,

occupancy) . of where nests were built was and very few at all on cliffs or 120 collected. bridges. Further work is underway United Kingdom In total, 2,902 squares with to explore country and regional 100

potential habitat (buildings or other The provisional UK population differences in colony size and use 80

structures, including cliffs, on estimate, based on the number of buildings. Seabirds (13) 100 60 Strong increase 80 Weak increase 40 Index (1986=100) 60 No change Breeding Waders of English Upland Farmland 40 Weak 20 decline 20

Percentage of species Strong

In 2016, a survey of breeding of broader investigations into the AES management options for 0 0 decline Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Long term Short term wader populations of “in-bye” significance of this habitat and grazing and habitat restoration 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 farmland (farmland below and the impact of agri-environment were positively associated with within 1 km of the moorland line) schemes (AES). Coordinated by waders’ numbers, particularly The figure above shows the unsmoothed The UK seabird in England was conducted as part the BTO and RSPB, volunteers for curlews. However, trend (solid line). No smoothed trend is indicator stands at and professionals surveyed Environmentally-Sensitive available for seabirds, as individual species’ 22% below the population trends are analysed using 522 randomly-selected tetrads Area (ESA) management was an imputation procedure that does not 1986 baseline, with containing in-bye farmland, negatively associated with curlew include smoothing. most of this decline recording numbers of key wader abundance. occurring since species by field. In-bye areas Please see the notes on page 9 for a full the mid-2000s. Three species – were found to support 48–67% These results are correlative explanation of the bar chart (above). As Arctic terns (mainly in England), data are based on a mixture of full counts of the English populations of and could therefore reflect, and sample sites, standard bootstrapping guillemots and razorbills – have curlews, lapwings and snipe, respectively, targeting of AES methods used for other indicators cannot be increased since the beginning of and lower percentages of more options to areas with high applied and the trend is presented without the index and two species have confidence intervals. For details of species’

Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay coastally-distributed waders wader densities, or delineation declined strongly (kittiwakes and (28% of oystercatchers of ESAs associated with areas trends in each indicator, download the Arctic skuas). The remaining report: https://www.gov.uk/government/ and 14% of redshanks). with declining waders. This study statistical-data-sets/env07-wild-bird- eight have shown no change or a Although not found breeding on demonstrates the importance populations-in-the-uk weak decline. in-bye land in significant numbers, of in-bye land to inland breeding golden plovers were frequently waders, and that conservation Source: British Trust for Ornithology, recorded foraging there. action via Environmental Defra, The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds and the Seabird Monitoring Stewardship and Countryside Programme (co-ordinated by Joint Nature Analyses of these and historical Stewardship may be beneficial. Conservation Committee) data, such as from recent Bird Atlases and the Breeding Bird Survey, showed both positive and negative associations with AES. Populations of razorbills In-bye farmland is important breeding habitat for lapwings. have increased.

24 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 25 Breeding seabirds Breeding seabirds

Seabirds and climate change Trends in UK breeding seabirds The table shows the differing Climate change is considered interact with current drivers Habitat suitability around the UK 1986–2015 2000–2015 fortunes of 16 seabird species Species BoCC4 to be one of the primary causes such as unsustainable fisheries, for seabirds is projected to shift trend % trend % of seabird declines, through pollutants, marine renewables northward over the next century monitored by the SMP over the indirect effects via changes in and disease. Overall negative and birds’ distributions may short- and long-term. Results are Fulmar -33 -31 1 prey availability and abundance, relationships between shift with changing conditions. only given for species for which Gannet 86 34 and through direct effects such temperature and the productivity Declines in European ranges are trends are considered to be robust. Cormorant 4 -8 as increased mortality from of seabirds has been shown for also predicted – with Leach’s Data are not available to produce Shag -45 -34 the increasing frequency and kittiwakes, fulmars and puffins, storm petrels and Arctic skuas robust trends for Red-listed Arctic skua -76 -64 2 intensity of extreme weather as well as common, Arctic and projected to come close to or puffins and herring gulls. Great skua 53 18 events. These processes will little terns. reach UK extinction by 2100. Kittiwake -60 -44 Black-headed gull 24 38 1 Trend derived from census interpolations Great black-backed gull -1 -11 and extrapolations. Little tern -34 -18 A cause for concern? 2 Due to low confidence in the data since the last census, this value is not Sandwich tern 5 13 SMP data have shown that UK linked to competition for nesting host species is likely to have presented. Common tern -17 -10 shag and kittiwake breeding territories with, and predation of reduced Arctic skua feeding Roseate tern -52 229 abundance declined by adults and chicks by, great skuas, opportunities. In periods when Arctic tern 19 17 approximately 34% and 44%, whose population increased great skuas’ normal food sources Guillemot 37 5 respectively, between 2000 and markedly between the 1985–88 are particularly limited, these birds Razorbill 87 32 2015. Both species have breeding and 1998–2002 seabird censuses. can switch to predating other season diets heavily reliant on In addition, the climate-related seabirds. Considering kittiwakes sandeels, such that declines in reduction in the availability of prey and Arctic skuas are prey for Rise of the generalists? sandeel abundance are likely to species such as sandeels, is also great skuas, increased predation be affecting productivity (see likely to be a factor. may also be contributing to Although populations of several may be allowing these species to when feeding chicks. Both black- kittiwake case study, page 34). declines in their populations. UK seabird species are in decline, thrive when others are failing. headed gulls and gannets have a Arctic skuas rely on stealing several species show long-term varied diet, with the former feeding Between 2000 and 2015, SMP caught by other seabirds, Changes in weather patterns increases. Great skuas, gannets, A trait that many of these species on multiple species of data indicated that the UK Arctic especially from kittiwakes, Arctic may also be affecting shags, guillemots and black-headed share is a lack of specialisation and molluscs, and the latter on skua breeding population declined terns and puffins. Declines in whose is only partially gulls are four of eight species in their preferred food types. varying species and sizes of fish. by over 60%, more than any other the abundance and the chick waterproof, perhaps making them that showed an increase in their When sandeel abundance is low, As these species are increasing seabird in the UK. This decline is provisioning rates of these more susceptible to mortality breeding abundance between guillemots can switch from their when more specialised feeders during prolonged periods of 2000 and 2015. Flexibility in food preferred sandeel diet to sprat, are in decline, it appears that being wet and windy weather. Stormy sources, foraging strategy and young gadids (species in the cod flexible with food may mitigate the weather may also lead to shag even changing breeding phenology family), pipefish or even squid effects of climate change. starvation through reduced foraging success, probably due to increased water turbidity. Such A complex picture weather patterns are predicted to increase with climate change. Fulmars appear to be an exception It should also be noted that Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay Severe events, in the winters of to this apparent pattern. They have species which are exhibiting rapid 1993/94, 2004/05 and 2012/13 long foraging ranges and are not population increases may be caused large numbers of birds particularly specialised in their coming back from extremely low to die (known as a “wreck”) feeding habits. Yet this species has numbers. For example, roseate and affected the population. seen a 33% decline in its breeding terns increased 229% between considerably. Breeding numbers numbers since 1986. 2000 and 2015, but this was were not fully recovered following calculated from 56 apparently the wreck of 1993/94 when the Although correlations have been occupied nests in the last census storms of 2004/05 hit and no observed between North Atlantic (Seabird 2000) to 113 in 2015, and recovery was apparent before climate variation and both fulmar numbers are still well below the 2012/13. The population was at its adult survival and productivity, 950 pairs observed between 1969 lowest yet recorded in 2013 (52% the specific driver for the decline and 1970. below the baseline), and by 2015 is unclear. had only improved marginally Stormy weather affects shag survival. (see table right).

26 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 27 Climate change and birds

Observed impacts of climate change on birds

Climate change and birds Goldfinch by John Bridges (rspb-images.com) Climate change is already affecting • For a number of resident rapidly enough (Devictor et much of our wildlife. Trends in species, expansion at the al. 2012), or, for example, that How has the UK’s climate changed? temperature and rainfall over the northern edges of their availability and distribution of past 30 years have been shown to ranges, where suitability is suitable habitat and/or changes 8 of the 10 warmest There have been slight Sea surface temperatures affect the distribution, abundance increasing, has been more to species interactions could years on record occurred increases in rainfall across and timing of natural events. rapid than the rate of loss at be restricting the ability of have increased and nine the southern range margins, species to track suitable since 1990 the UK, mostly during of the 10 warmest years Changes in survival and breeding where suitability is declining, climate. However, to date, winter – with heavy for UK seas have occurred success lead to changes in resulting in overall expansion there is no evidence for such rainfall events making a since 1989. community processes and of species’ ranges of >1km per lags influencing population growing contribution. population changes for a wide year (Massimino et al. 2015). changes. (Kendon et al. 2015, Kendon et al. 2017, range of taxonomic groups • Shifts averaging about 13km Humphrey and Murphy 2017) (Morecroft et al. 2009, Morecroft or more to the north and west & Speakman 2015, Thackeray et al. have been detected between 2010, Walther et al. 2010). bird atlases (1988-91 and 2007- 11) for a number of southerly- Since the early 1990s, birds in distributed species, such In the 20th century, the UK, and Europe as a whole, as goldfinches, chiffchaffs Average UK have shown changes in numbers and nuthatches (Gillings et temperatures have Scotland and distribution consistent with a al. 2015) - see maps below. was on average UK sea levels warming climate. Other drivers such as food and rose by 14cm habitat availability may play a increased 11% wetter Distributional changes: part in these shifts, as well as by nearly 1 °C between 2007-2016 and the rate is climate warming. • Species’ distributions are • Currently there is evidence since the 1980s than 1961-1990 increasing changing, predominantly that, across Europe, shifts moving northwards, but there in species’ distributions are Trends are is also some evidence for lagging behind the rate of shifts to higher elevations, as warming, suggesting that Goldfinch projected has been seen with other taxa. birds may not be responding to continue Goldfinch Chiffchaff Nuthatch Breeding distribution change Breeding distribution change Breeding distribution Current projections are for 1988-91 to 2008-11 1988-91 to 2008-11 change 1988-91 to 2008-11 increases in temperature, wetter winters, drier summers and an Gain increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather Present both events (including heatwaves, Loss droughts, heavy rain and floods).

Overall reductions in water availability, particularly in the south-east, are expected to be exacerbated by increased demand for water for agriculture, industry By 2050: Mean summer Mean winter rainfall projected to and services (Environment temperature projected to increase increase by between around 10% Agency 2011; Rance et al. 2012). by up to 5°C in many parts of the and 50%, while summers will UK by 2050. be drier.

Maps (above) show UK Climate Projection ranges of change in average summer temperature (left) and average winter rainfall (right) by 2050 relative to 1961–1990 under a medium emissions scenario. These maps project change that is very unlikely to be exceeded (90% probability levels). It should be noted that projections can be very Maps reproduced from Bird Atlas 2007–11, a joint project between, BTO, BirdWatch Ireland and the Scottish Ornithologists’ different for other time periods and other emissions scenarios. Club. Map reproduced with permission from the British Trust for Ornithology. (© UK Climate Projections 2009)

28 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 29 Climate change and birds Climate change & birds

Population trends Community change including short distance/partial migrants, eg blackcaps and There is now considerable Collectively, these responses chiffchaffs, and long distance evidence for changes in mean that birds in the countryside migrants, eg garden warblers. abundance and population around us are changing in Ben Hall (rspb-images.com) Ben trends of birds. The observed response to climate change. As a result of earlier arrival and and predicted changes in climate Southerly-distributed species, later departure, migratory species suitability and recent species resident species and habitat are staying longer in the UK. population trends have been generalists are increasing relative For example sand martins and shown to be correlated across to northern or upland species, whitethroats, now spend around Dartford warbler numbers have risen while the UK’s climate has warmed. continental Europe (Gregory et al. long-distance migrants and habitat two weeks longer in the UK 2009; Stephens et al. 2016). specialists (Davey et al. 2012). than in the 1960s, and garden As well as shifts for common and Dartford warbler Cetti’s warbler warblers four weeks longer. widespread species, there are Breeding distribution change Breeding distribution change Many resident species, such as Across Europe, warm-associated a number of previously scarce 1988-91 to 2008-11 1988-91 to 2008-11 wren, treecreeper, nuthatch, species are becoming more Species that have extended species, such as Cetti’s warbler robin and dunnock, have shown common relative to cold- their stay in the UK show more and Dartford warbler (see case Gain long-term increases in abundance, associated species (Devictor et al. positive trends in abundance over study on page 40), that have which have been linked to 2012), and bird communities are the period studied (1960s–2010), Present both recently expanded their ranges increases in winter and spring becoming more similar to each compared to species that had not considerably. Cetti’s warbler, Loss temperatures. other (Le Viol et al. 2012, Sullivan altered their timing of migration, which bred initially in the south- et al. 2016). For birds, for example cuckoos and turtle east of the UK upon colonisation Populations of long-distance the decline in cold-adapted, doves (Newson et al. 2016). in the 1970s, now has the core of migrants (for example northern species is the key its distribution in the south-west. ring ouzel) may suffer negative driver of change in community However, timings events vary While it continues to be limited consequences from warmer, drier composition across England, between taxonomic groups. by cold winters (Robinson et al. conditions during the spring and contrasting with the situation for Across a wide range of species 2007), most recently in 2009/10, it summer potentially influencing butterflies, where the change is of plants and insects, timing has continues to increase in numbers food availability and abundance being driven by an increase in advanced on average by about and expand its range (Green 2017). (Beale et al. 2006). Migratory southern, warm-adapted species four days for a 1°C increase in populations are also sensitive to (Oliver et al. 2017). temperature, compared to birds changes in weather conditions on which have advanced by an their wintering grounds, where Changes in timing average of two days. This presents lower rainfall affects survival rates a potential problem of mismatch (Johnston et al. 2016). The spring arrival dates for 11 between peak prey availability of 14 common migrants have and birds’ peak prey requirements Wintering birds re-distributing Long-term changes in got earlier and egg-laying dates (Thackeray et al. 2016). internationally important waterbird have advanced with the result

• A north-eastward shift in the • In severe cold winters like populations are also partly that swallows, for example, are Ernie Janes (rspb-images.com) range of some wintering that in 2010/11, numbers of explained by climate change arriving in the UK 15 days earlier waterbirds has also been bar-tailed godwits were (Johnston et al. 2013). Improved and breeding 11 days earlier than reported in north-west Europe, higher than in the mid-2000s, survival as a result of milder they did in the 1960s (Newson including the UK, which is probably because they were winters has been reported for et al. 2016). associated with a trend for escaping cold conditions in several species including dunlins, milder winters (Lehikoinen et al. north-west Europe. redshanks and golden plovers. However, timings vary annually 2013, Austin & Rehfisch 2005). in relation to spring temperatures A number of breeding seabird and conditions on migration. species, eg kittiwakes and Blackcaps and chiffchaffs bred Between 1981 and 2000, shags, show declines caused by significantly later in 2016 than they declining productivity associated have in recent years, probably as a wintering distributions of with warming seas and changes result of lower April temperatures to food abundance and availability (NRS report 2016). grey plovers and curlews in (see kittiwake case study on page 34). Timing of departure has become north-west Europe shifted slightly delayed in some species,

Curlew nearly 120km north-east Swallow (Maclean 2008).

30 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 31 Climate change and birds Climate change and birds

Mechanisms Projected future

Identifying whether observed Breeding success Species interactions impacts of climate changes are caused by climate change remains a challenge, • Warmer temperatures during • Shifts in distribution, geographic change and the subject of a range of the breeding season have variation in population trends, studies, analyses and modelling been shown to have a positive and changes in timing all lead With around 1°C of global approaches. effect on breeding success to changes in communities temperature rise recorded for a range of species. For of species. This can affect already, climate change has been Conversely, there remains example, birds that feed species interactions (such as assessed as the second-largest much to understand about the insects to their young, such predator-prey relationships and driver in the UK of observed importance of extreme weather as great tits and chaffinches, competition) which in turn can changes in wildlife populations. events in driving population have improved productivity in drive further population change Only intensification of agriculture change, and the impact of warm, dry springs, probably (Ockendon 2014). has been a greater driver of increasing severity and frequency mediated by increased prey • Differences in the rates of declines (Burns et al. 2016). of such events on species survival abundance and good foraging change in the timings of life Because of this, some species, and breeding success. conditions. Further evidence history events leads to the such as the turtle dove, which comes from numerous studies potential for mismatch in the are predicted to increase with The extent to which a species which show positive effects of timing between peak food climate change, have not can respond to climate change temperature on chick growth demands of breeding birds done so due to non-climate is affected by various factors and and productivity in waders and and peak food availability, related pressures. the interactions between them, other ground nesting species leading to a potential reduction Green-listed species (left) are projected to increase across the including habitat availability, with mobile young (eg golden in breeding success and Current and historic distributions UK particularly in the north. is projected to habitat quality and the species’ plover, common sandpiper subsequent population decline, of species can be used to identify improve for 28 species. Red- and Amber-listed species (right) are physiological and dispersal ability and corncrake) (Pearce- for example pied flycatcher the climate conditions suitable projected to have widespread declines except in north and west (Thomas et al. 2011, Eglington and Higgins and Green 2014). in the (Both et al. for them. Climate-envelope mainland Scotland (Massimino et al. 2017) Pearce-Higgins 2012, Oliver et al. • Changes to patterns of 2009). models constructed from these 2017). rainfall and temperature can • Mismatch has been studied data can then be used to see for those Red- and Amber-listed (Massimino et al. 2015). have diverse effects on a in detail for only a few where species could live based (Massimino et al. 2017). However, this apparently Here we give just a few examples population’s breeding success: species, and has not been where those climate conditions favourable assessment for the of research and monitoring that for example, Slavonian directly linked to reductions are projected to be in the future. There are clear reasons for this. UK needs to be set in the context demonstrates some of the best- grebes in Scotland had higher in breeding success or large- Using these methods, a climatic There are more southern species of declines at the other end of known mechanisms. breeding success when scale population decline in atlas of Europe’s breeding with potential for northward species’ ranges in Europe, as temperatures were higher the UK. Instead, changes in birds was published (Huntley expansion in the UK than there well as the increased vulnerability Survival rates: during chick rearing, but the abundance of insect prey et al. 2007). There is increasing are northern species predicted of a number of species of high periods of particularly heavy populations may be more evidence linking projections to to contract, and observations conservation concern. • Fluctuations in population rainfall during the breeding important (see golden plover observed bird population changes suggest this is already happening trends of one of our largest season led to case study on page 38). (Stephens et al. 2016, Green et al. Redshank by Ray Kennedy (rspb-images.com) breeding birds, the grey heron smaller populations (Ewing 2008). By linking the projections (1930-2017) and one of our et al. 2013). The breeding with habitat availability and smallest, the wren (1965- success of some raptors and non-climate pressures which 2016), are closely related to grouse species can also be are likely to interact to constrain annual variation in mean winter very sensitive to rainfall during opportunities or exacerbate risk, temperature (Pearce-Higgins chick rearing (Pearce-Higgins & tools have been developed to & Green 2014). Long periods Green 2014). assess the overall level of risk of cold days with continuous or opportunity posed by climate frost reduce wren survival change for species (Thomas et al. rates – which can be halved by 2011, Wheatley et al. 2017). more than 10 consecutive days of frost (Robinson et al. 2007). A larger number of species are Both species have shown predicted to have opportunities increasing trends due to less for range expansion in the UK, severe winters. compared to those at risk of Grey heron by Mike Lane (rspb-images.com) Mike heron by Grey contraction (Pearce-Higgins et al. 2017). Maps (above) show how Grey heron numbers are projected to change for Green-listed species compared

32 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 33 Climate change and birds Climate change and birds Ed Marshall (rspb-images.com) Vulnerabilities and constraints CONSERVATION ACTIONS - Building ecological with climate change resilience to the impacts of climate change

There are many obstacles to Northern and upland species are Climate change adaptation is an The following four adaptation (HM Government, 2013, due to range expansion and colonisation. predicted to be more vulnerable, increasingly important priority principles were developed and be updated in 2018): gov.uk/ In the main part, this is due to with northward and uphill range for nature conservation and will agreed by experts as the overall government/publications/ limited habitat availability and contraction (Green et al. 2008, involve a range of approaches direction in the National adapting-to-climate-change- other non climate-related factors. Pearce-Higgins 2010). Analyses appropriate to different Adaptation Programme national-adaptation-programme For example, rising sea levels, aiming to determine the true circumstances. combined with an expected role of climate change in driving increase in the severity of storms, current observed declines in is expected to increase coastal these species are still ongoing. Building resilience • Work to make wildlife resilient to impacts of climate change seeks flooding and thus loss of intertidal Nevertheless, species such as of wildlife, habitats to build strong populations with dispersing individuals able to habitats, as well as coastal dotterels, purple sandpipers and Kittiwake case study colonise new areas (Lawton et al. 2010, Newson et al. 2014, Oliver freshwater and brackish wetlands. whimbrels breeding in the UK at and ecosystems to et al. 2017). the southern edge of their global The UK’s kittiwake population climate change • New and revised conservation actions needed for climate change range are considered to have an has declined by approximately contribute to achieving current conservation targets and priorities. inherently higher risk of climate- 60% since 1986 as a result of • The network of protected sites remains vital for protecting priority related extinction as a breeding both falling breeding success species because while sites may lose some species, they will also species in this country (Ausden et and adult survival. North Sea gain others (Johnston et al. 2013). al. 2015a). Other climate-vulnerable kittiwakes rely on sandeels upland species in the UK include during the breeding season Preparing for and • Ongoing change across the UK is inevitable. golden plovers (see case study, and could be affected in two accommodating • Some species will occur in different places, communities will page 38) and curlews (see maps main ways. Firstly, through change and some habitats will change regardless of changes to above) (Massimino et al. 2017). sandeel fisheries reducing inevitable change management. food availability, but most • Conservation objectives and targets need to be realistic, flexible and importantly through changing yet robust to aim for the best results in changing circumstances. ocean conditions because of • Accommodating change involves facilitating movement of species. Suitability This applies at all scales – local, regional and national – and in many (counts/1−km square) climate change (Frederiksen et al. 2004, 2013). cases involves increasing connectivity across the countryside. > 2 Translocation of species should be considered on a case-by-case 1 − 2 Rising sea surface temperature basis where species are unable to relocate naturally to areas with 0.5 − 1 has changed the plankton suitable climate and habitat. 0.2 − 0.5 GG community on which sandeels 0 − 0.2 G G G G G • Climate change has impacts on people as well as wildlife and the G rely. In addition, rising Valuing the wider G temperature is also changing way society adapts to the threats it faces may have positive or

G the process of stratification – adaptation benefits negative impacts for birds and other species.

G

G the relationship between sea the natural • One of the clearest examples is where hard sea defences designed temperature and salinity, which environment can to reduce coastal flooding may prevent natural readjustment of the creates density differences shoreline and lead to a loss of coastal habitats. By allowing natural between deep and shallow deliver processes to create new habitats through managed realignment, we can have more natural solutions to flooding which will have multiple G waters. Earlier or stronger Present 2080 stratification can ultimately benefits: reducing the risks of flooding to people, creating extensive reduce food availability for wetlands, as well as carbon capture in intertidal habitats created. kittiwakes (Scott et al. 2006) • Other examples include upland catchment management for and the species’ breeding wildlife and water, trees in shaded open spaces for people in urban

G success has been found to environments, and re-naturalising river systems to reduce flow rates be lower in areas where this and retain flood waters. has occurred. Based on these relationships, projections for Improving the • Much remains unknown about the impacts of climate change and the late 21st century suggest the effectiveness of different adaptation measures. that the breeding success of evidence base • Monitoring to identify observed impacts, and research to assess Abundance of curlews is projected to drop 50% (1997-2080) under the 11 northern UK colonies the magnitude and timing of possible future impacts, require long- a medium climate change scenario. studied could fall by up to 43% term robust datasets and the co-operation of a range of scientists, (Carroll et al. 2015b). government, agencies and NGOs.

34 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 35 Climate change and birds Climate change and birds

How can we help species adapt to climate change? Breeding golden plover Case study

Effective adaptation management Across the UK, nature reserve to support decision making. What has happened? requires a solid evidence base and other land managers are Below are some examples of Golden plovers breeding in the UK uplands are among the most and experience to recognise and developing a range of actions to actions to help species adapt to southerly populations in their global range. Golden plovers rely on respond to the vulnerabilities and adapt to climate change, from climate change. cranefly larvae (also known as leatherjackets) for food, which are highly

risks that climate change brings, coastal realignment to increasing publications.naturalengland. (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay sensitive to drought, and high temperatures in August reduce the as well as making the most of microclimate heterogeneity. org.uk/publication/ abundance of craneflies the following year. This means that climate any opportunities. By observing Natural England and the RSPB 5629923804839936 change could limit the birds’ food supply, reducing chick survival and ongoing changes we can adapt have published an online Climate ?category=10003 overall breeding success (Pearce-Higgins et al. 2010). management of sites and habitats Change Adaptation Manual, which to facilitate species responses to brings together the best available What do we think will happen? climate change. science and practical experience Modelling suggests that the abundance and persistence of golden plover populations in the Peak District in northern England could decline • Dartford warblers and nightjars (left) are characteristic species of as warmer, drier summers reduce cranefly abundances. Overall, golden lowland heathlands. Restoration and re-creation of these scarce plovers have been assessed as having a high risk of climate-related and fragmented habitats to the north of the core area for these decline. This is despite projected improvements in winter survival for this species will aid northward expansion. Heathland restoration species, because the reduction in productivity is likely to outweigh any involves optimising the level of grazing, cutting and/or burning to improvements in survival (Carroll et al. 2015a). maintain structure and condition as well as managing the fire risk, which is projected to increase with warming temperatures and What can we do to help? Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay reduced rainfall. Management could increase resilience of these populations. Throughout Golden plover the 20th century, many UK upland peatlands were drained to improve agriculture, but this exacerbates cranefly declines and has further populations impacts on ecosystem functioning. • Little terns (left) and common terns nesting on low-lying coastal could decline islands require sites to be raised using shingle as the sea level Experimental examination of three drained peatlands has shown that rises and sites become more vulnerable to storms. In managed as warmer, blocking drains as part of restoration programmes leads to wetter peat realignment areas new nesting islands can be created. Island and higher cranefly abundances (Carroll et al. 2011). nesting sites are important because in many nesting areas, drier summers breeding success is reduced by high levels of disturbance and affect cranefly Blocking drainage ditches therefore provides more food for golden impacts of ground predators. populations. plovers in drained peatlands, aiding populations in a climate changing

Ben Andrew Andrew (rspb-images.com) Ben to drier summers. Other ecosystem services benefits are also achieved by rewetting peatlands, notably 1.5 25 improved carbon storage, improved • Lowland breeding waders such as lapwings, redshanks and water quality and reduced flood risk

black-tailed godwits (left) require shallow pools and moist soil 1 (Wilson et al. 2011). for foraging. Current measures to increase water availability in the 20

face of lower rainfall and higher temperatures include storing water 0.5 Such benefits are already being for the breeding season, and maintaining wet features by digging realised through landscape scale shallow channels. Conversely, for black-tailed godwits, existing 15 restoration projects, such as the 0 breeding habitat in the UK is only found in wet meadows used Sustainable Catchment Management for floodwater storage; in years with high levels of rain they have Programme (SCaMP – a partnership -0.5 lower breeding success. To safeguard the population from increased 10 between United Utilities, the RSPB, Chris Knights (rspb-images.com) flood risk, additional unflooded grassland is being created for when local farmers and a wide range of adjacent washlands are flooded. -1 other stakeholders). Other non-climate Golden plover population change 5 August temperature (°C) Maximum change-related management actions • A high proportion of potential colonist species (see page 17) are -1.5 which help golden plovers include waterbirds which require very large wetlands. The re-establishment of legal control of generalist predators, breeding by spoonbills (left), great white egrets and little bitterns -2 0 removal of conifer plantations in in the UK has all occurred at large wetland expanses. However, there 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 inappropriate areas, re-profiling of Year are very few large wetlands capable of supporting large breeding forest edges around protected areas colonies of such waterbirds (Ausden et al. 2014a). Wetland habitat Annual fluctuations in the abundance of golden plovers (Wilson et al. 2014) and provision of creation to benefit current species as well as potential colonists at Summit in the Peak District (bars) in relation to suitable feeding conditions through would therefore be best focused on providing a small number of very August temperature two years previously (line). Population vegetation management (Pearce-

Richard Brooks (rspb-images.com) Richard large wetland complexes in the vicinity of existing habitats. declines were more likely to occur following hot years. Higgins et al. 2015b).

36 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 37 Climate change and birds Climate change and birds Ben Hall (rspb-images.com) CONSERVATION ACTIONS – Building ecological Dartford warbler Case study resilience to the impacts of climate change What has happened? As a resident species, the Dartford warbler is vulnerable to severe The UK’s fauna is being change-driven range shifts must The south-east of England, where winter weather. The population in the UK may have declined to a augmented by species arriving also be considered in establishing most potential colonists will first low of 11 pairs in 1963 following two very cold winters. A period of from continental Europe and and managing the large areas of arrive from the continent, is likely warming since then has seen the population increase, with more this will increase, as climate habitat that many of these species to experience greater warming, than 2,500 pairs in 2006 (Wotton et al. 2009). Expansion into patches projections show greater future require (Ausden et al. 2014b). more reduced rainfall, and the of structurally suitable habitat (up to an altitude of 400m), more change in Europe than in the UK. greatest level of human pressure. northerly areas and away from the core of the range, from Dorset To help new species of waterbirds and Hampshire to Derbyshire and Suffolk, is likely to have been A number of species associated colonise from Europe, large areas Future management of wetlands facilitated by milder winter weather (Wotton et al. 2009, Bradbury with wetlands have been of new wetland, such as those needs to take into account et al. 2011). However, the species is still vulnerable to severe winter assessed as having the potential created through management increased climate-related drying conditions, such as those experienced in 2009/10 and 2010/11 to expand their ranges or realignment, will be required. and increasing human demand for (Green 2017). establish, or re-establish, regular The largest coastal wetland to water in the region (Ausden et breeding populations here in the be constructed in the UK is the al. 2015a). What do we think will happen? next few decades (see pages Wallasea Island Wild Coast The Dartford warbler population in the UK is projected to continue 17-21). While some of these project (Ausden et al. 2015b), to increase. However, future climate-based projections for the species are recovering from past pictured below. European range indicate that by 2080, more than 60% of the human-induced declines, climate current European range may no longer be suitable (Huntley et al 2007). There is evidence that this is happening already, with severe declines in Spain and France (Green 2017). For this reason, the species is classified as Near Threatened on the IUCN Global Red The UK’s List. If the declines in southern Europe continue, the UK will become population increasingly important for global conservation of this species. of Dartford What can we do to help? UK sites are even more important for Dartford warblers at a European warblers looks www.commissionair.co.uk scale if a large proportion of the range becomes unsuitable. This set to become demonstrates that setting local and regional conservation priorities needs to take into account the international context. Management, increasingly including enhancing and creating suitable lowland and upland heath, as well as controlling high levels of human disturbance on these sites, important in a will be essential to facilitate ongoing population increase (Pearce- European context. Higgins et al. 2015b).

Importance of protected areas Protected areas have been key to the expansion of this species: 74% were in protected areas. Indeed, across seven species (two butterflies and five birds) included in a study of northward range expansion, protected areas were colonised four times more than expected given the available protected area coverage (Thomas et al. 2012).

Protected areas are going to be a vital part of responding to climate change, enabling conservation management as a priority. Connectivity between protected areas by increasing habitat availability in the wider countryside with be an important factor in facilitating movement of species under climate change.

Wallasea Island Wild Coast Project: a wetland designed to provide valuable habitat for wildlife, both now and under a range of future climate conditions.

38 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 39 Climate change & birds

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The state of the UK’s birds 2017 40 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 41 Wintering waterbirds Wintering waterbirds

The decline in the number Mark Hamblin (rspb-images.com) of pochards wintering in the UK is not thought to be caused by climate change.

Numbers of eiders wintering in the UK have dropped by 17% over the past 25 years.

Climate change and wintering waterbirds

The distribution and abundance ranges of Arctic and sub-Arctic Potential changes in sea level of waterbirds that spend the species which winter in the UK by may alter estuarine sediment winter on our wetlands are already 50% by the end of the century, patterns, with likely impacts on changing in response to climate which may cause further declines. wintering waterbird communities, change. Despite milder winters particularly at sites where coastal in the UK resulting in increased Most protected areas are sea defences are maintained. overwinter survival for many considered likely to continue to species, the indicator (on page support internationally important Our understanding of these 41) shows declines in wintering numbers of wintering waterbirds changes is only possible due to the waterbirds. despite the changes in distribution data collected by the large-scale, and abundance of populations long-term monitoring programmes In many cases this is explained due to climate change. Indeed, described here, but the context by shifting distributions, linked the importance of these sites has provided by international to milder winters across the been clear during particularly cold monitoring schemes is essential to Continent. This is particularly winters (eg 2009/10 and 2010/11) interpreting these changes in the evident in the reduced use of sites when the trend for wintering light of climate change’s impact on along the UK’s east coast due to further east was reversed, and populations outside the UK. short-stopping in favour of sites in numbers on UK sites were Europe. However, climate change much higher. is projected to reduce the breeding Peter Cairns (rspb-images.com) Peter

42 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 43 Wintering waterbirds Wintering waterbirds

70 years of monitoring non-breeding Trends in wintering wetland birds in the UK Shelduck by Ben Hall (rspb-images.com) 25 year trend waterbirds in the UK 10 year trend % Species % (1989/90- BoCC4 (2004/05-2014/15)2 2014/15)1 Since monitoring started in 1947, Additional surveys have been • including data from the UK Mute swan 33 -10 the scheme which started as the instigated to plug gaps in in global assessments of Bewick's swan -95 - 74 National Wildfowl Counts has knowledge for species and waterbirds, to determine both Whooper swan 21 17 developed and grown over the habitats for which the WeBS their population size and their Pink-footed goose 120 51 70 years to include all waterbirds. Core Counts methodology is conservation status; European white-fronted goose -69 -32 The methodology has remained less suited (Goose and Swan • the long-term site monitoring, Greenland white-fronted goose -31 -35 largely unchanged throughout. The Monitoring Programme, WeBS facilitating assessment of Icelandic greylag goose -10 9 primary objectives of what is now Low Tide Counts, Non-Estuarine local change with national British greylag goose 345 58 the Wetland Bird Survey (WeBS) Waterbird Survey and Winter Gull and international context, and Canada goose 55 12 were established from the early Roost Survey). evidence for sites that qualify Greenland barnacle goose 175 57 days of the survey: determining for national and international Svalbard barnacle goose 221 48 trends in numbers of wintering Today, WeBS is funded by a designation and protection. Dark-bellied brent goose 17 42 waterbirds, identifying important partnership of the BTO, RSPB Canadian light-bellied brent goose 81 65 sites and determining population and JNCC in association with In the early years of the scheme, Svalbard light-bellied brent goose 47 -10 size. Over 7,500 UK wetlands have WWT – all of whom have funded concern for the conservation of Shelduck -32 -27 been counted at least once, with the schemes for over 40 years. wildfowl species was centred on Wigeon 26 -18 typically 2,500 being covered each Such long-term commitment habitat gains and losses, water Gadwall 149 15 winter in recent times. shows the immense value to UK extraction, energy developments Teal 41 5 conservation of: and wildfowling pressures. These Mallard -41 -17 The number of species monitored issues remain pertinent today, Pintail -38 -46 has increased over time; waders • the non-breeding population but an international perspective Shoveler 70 7 (initially monitored by the Birds indices for over 100 waterbird has become essential, as the of Estuaries Enquiry launched in species, stretching back to the world has changed. The wintering Pochard -67 -42 1969) were counted alongside mid-1960s for many species; patterns of migratory waterbird Tufted duck 6 7 wildfowl from 1980 onwards, and • the estimates of the sizes populations on the East Atlantic Scaup -22 -51 3 the schemes formally merged of non-breeding waterbird Flyway and how populations Eider (except Shetland ) -17 -7 in 1993, by which time the populations in Great Britain change and respond to weather Goldeneye -53 -31 remaining waterbird families and Ireland; conditions are of great interest, Red-breasted merganser -20 -20 such as grebes, divers and • the records of all waterbirds, as conservationists aim to ensure Goosander 6 11 cormorants were included, allowing assessment of waterbirds have sufficient wetland Ruddy duck -99 -100 although gulls and terns are still populations of non-native and habitats where they are needed Little grebe 98 -6 only optional to count. naturally colonising species; under various climate change Great crested grebe 6 -21 scenarios (see pages 28–40). Cormorant 50 3 Top10 species with the most individuals recorded 1. Long-term trends are the percentage Coot 1 -16 during WeBS Core Counts and predecessor surveys Since the counts began, the changes between the smoothed index Oystercatcher -26 -15 number of volunteers taking part values for for 1989/90 and 2014/15. Avocet 718 41 has grown to over 3,000. It is this Ringed plover -59 -37 2. Ten-year trends are the percentage Dunlin...... network of volunteers that makes Golden plover 76 -30 changes between the smoothed index 193,746,448 a scheme such as this possible. values for 2004/05 and 2014/15. Grey plover -30 -19 Oystercatcher...... Without their dedicated time and 145,498,388 Lapwing -3 -32 Knot...... support, we would not have the Calculation of smoothed indices by use of Knot -16 -16 129,743,036 quality or quantity of data that a generalised additive model is detailed further at bto.org/webs-alerts Wigeon...... we have today. And importantly, Sanderling 29 10 116,965,737 Purple sandpiper -57 -9 Lapwing...... it is these data that enable 3. British eiders comprise two populations; 88,613,694 conservationists and others to Dunlin -40 -19 trends here exclude birds in Shetland that Mallard...... Black-tailed godwit 300 33 71,016,765 conserve and protect waterbirds are of the race faeroeensis. Black-headed gull...... in the UK and subsequently Bar-tailed godwit -11 2 62,612,609 throughout their flyways. Curlew -15 -13 Brent goose...... 59,999,302 Redshank -20 -18 Turnstone -47 -24 Teal...... 49,369,555 Redshank...... 49,315,086

44 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 45 Wintering waterbirds Wintering waterbirds

Mixed fortunes of waders of non-estuarine coasts Oystercatcher by Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) NEWS population estimates for non-estuarine specialist waders Initial analysis of data collected was the fourth of these targeted from Arctic breeding grounds, 45,000 as part of the 2015/16 nationwide surveys to collect information such as north-east Canada, 40,000 Ringed plover Non-Estuarine Waterbird Survey for waders and other waterbirds to winter in areas such as the Purple sandpiper 35,000 (NEWS) suggests that numbers using these important areas, Northumberland coast. Turnstone of several key wader species which are considered vulnerable 30,000 Sanderling have decreased compared with to climate change impacts The majority of ringed plovers, previous surveys in 1984-85, and changes to invertebrate purple sandpipers, turnstones 25,000 1997-98 and 2006-07. communities. and sanderlings present in mid- 20,000 winter are on the non-estuarine Whilst WeBS coverage of A total of 700 volunteers together coast, so NEWS is a particularly 15,000

estuaries and inland waterbodies surveyed 9,200km of coast – a important information source for 10,000 is good, only a small proportion distance roughly equivalent to the these species. of the UK’s non-estuarine coast is return trip birds such as purple 5,000 Non-estuarine coast winter population estimate surveyed annually. NEWS 2015-16 sandpipers and turnstones take 0

1984 1997 2006 2015 1984 1997 2006 2015 1984 1997 2006 2015 1984 1997 2006 2015

According to WeBS data, the WeBS smoothed trends for non-estuarine wader specialists

sanderling population present 300 in the UK in mid-winter has been Oystercatchers in decline increasing, both long-term (29% 250 over 25 years) and short-term While NEWS found that the Over the past 25 years the Sustainable management of (10% over 10 years – see right). oystercatcher is still the most oystercatcher’s trend on estuaries shellfish fisheries and habitat The NEWS survey in 2006-7 200 numerous and widespread and other WeBS sites has protection is considered vital for found that mid-winter sanderling of wader species on the non- shown a decline of 2% a year. the future conservation of this numbers had declined on rocky 150 estuarine coast - with an estimate Internationally, oystercatchers are species. coasts compared with the two of just under 70,000 – this is considered to be Near Threatened

earlier surveys. It was Index (1974/75 = 100) 100 fewer than in previous surveys. on the IUCN Global Red List. encouraging that the 2015-16 Ringed Plover survey recorded the highest-ever Purple Sandpiper 50 Turnstone numbers recorded on the Sanderling Results of the 2015 International Swan Census non-estuarine coast. non-estuarine survey 0 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 Over the last three decades, this shift is the increasing number number of birds wintering in Great The WeBS trends for ringed the Icelandic whooper swan of whooper swans recorded Britain, before they fell sharply to plovers, purple sandpipers population has more than doubled at the Ouse Washes, in Norfolk 4,371 birds in 2015. Interestingly, and turnstones all demonstrate purple sandpiper‘s decline environmental factors such as in size, with 34,004 individuals and Cambridgeshire, with the Great Britain has also seen a gradual that numbers peaked in the has slowed in the past decade. changing sewage treatment and recorded during the most recent count in 2015 (7,171) being the increase in the proportion of the mid-1980s, with subsequent Initial NEWS analyses suggest disposal practices. International Swan Census in highest recorded up until then, north-west European population it

Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay ongoing declines, although the similar mid-winter declines for 2015, compared with 16,731 in representing a seven-fold increase supports since this wider population the non-estuarine coast, but the NEWS also revealed increased 1986. Almost the entire population at the site since the 1995 census. started declining in 2000. At the decline in ringed plovers here numbers of great northern divers winters in Great Britain and Ireland, time of writing, final results from may be less severe than on wintering off the coast of northern and up until the 2015 census, The 2015 census also revealed the census elsewhere in Europe estuaries. The NEWS estimate and western Britain and Northern results from the five-yearly surveys a large decline in the number of are still being collated (by the for turnstone in 2015-16 was Ireland. The WeBS population trend showed that Ireland supported the Bewick’s swans wintering in the Wetlands International/IUCN SSC 32% lower than in 2006/07 is also positive, with a trend of largest proportion. Great Britain and Ireland, with Swan Specialist Group), so it will – a loss of 12,000 birds. a 70% increase over the last 10 a total of 4,392 birds recorded, be interesting to see how well the Possible explanations for the years. It is assumed that wintering However, as the population has 38% lower than in 2010 and population has fared overall, given observed changes include birds come from the Icelandic and grown, there have been indications the lowest census total to date. the large decline observed in shifts in where birds are Greenland breeding populations, of a gradual shift in the distribution, The largest decline has occurred Great Britain. wintering, and/or declines but no ringing or tracking studies with the proportion wintering in in Ireland, where census totals in breeding productivity, have confirmed this. Great Britain gradually increasing have fallen from a peak of 2,004 More detailed results from which could both be related whilst it has been decreasing in birds in 1990 to just 21 in 2015. the census can be found at: to climatic factors and local Ireland. In 2015, the majority were Comparatively, the results from monitoring.wwt.org.uk/our- recorded in Great Britain for the censuses between 1995 and 2010 work/goose-swan-monitoring- Ringed plover declines were reported from WeBS and NEWS. first time. The main reason for indicated some stability in the programme/species-accounts

46 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 47 Birds in the UK Overseas Territories

Birds in the UK Recovery of three endemic land birds Four land bird species, the trends were calculated to see lacked the precision needed to Henderson lorikeet, Henderson how populations of these four assess whether the population fruit dove, Henderson rail and species have responded to the had changed. Overseas Territories Henderson reed warbler, are temporary respite from high levels endemic to Henderson Island, of predation by rats. A temporary reduction of rat The land and seas for which the 70,000 further species yet to be includes impacts of numerous part of the Pitcairn Group in the predation pressure may have UK is responsible extend further documented. Climate change interacting factors. These include: South Pacific. These have been Henderson reed warblers more benefitted the Henderson reed than we might think. These impacts will vary with geographic monitored, following the failed than doubled in abundance, warbler, and less rat competition include areas of tropical rainforest, location but in many OTs the • sea-level rise – exacerbating the rodent eradication attempt on and Henderson fruit doves for fruit may have helped the vast coral reefs, volcanoes, ice potential impacts have still not impact of flooding; the island in 2011. Introduced increased slightly over the period. Henderson fruit dove. However, caps and one of the largest been assessed thoroughly. • ocean acidification and rising Pacific rats have caused declines Henderson rails increased to because a long drought may maritime zones in the world. sea temperatures – projected and even extinctions in a number pre-eradication levels, showing have naturally suppressed bird These can be found in the 14 UK As this report was being to be warmer all year round by of species on Henderson. that efforts to protect these populations prior to the rat Overseas Territories (OTs), which prepared, the devastating impact the latter part of the century. However, whilst unsuccessful, the birds, which were known to be eradication operation in 2011, are spread around the world. The of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on This would cause bleaching and eradication attempt did reduce susceptible to the poison bait we cannot unequivocally ascribe OTs are mostly small islands, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands, extensive mortality to corals; the number of rats substantially used to kill rats, were successful. the population increases to the and include two World Heritage the Turks and Caicos Islands and • increasing frequency and for a year or two. There was no change detected in temporary reduction of the rat Sites. The human inhabitants are Montserrat was beginning to strength of storms; the abundance of the Henderson population. We encourage robust British nationals, and the UK is come to light. Our thoughts are • storm surges and erosion; Between 2011 and 2015, point lorikeet, although this species monitoring of island biodiversity responsible for helping to protect with all our partners as they begin • loss of mangroves which act as counts were conducted at 25 is the most mobile of the four both before and after attempts to their incredible wildlife. the long and painful process of natural sea defences; sampling locations and abundance species and population estimates eradicate invasive species.

rebuilding their communities. • a tendency towards both more RSPB (rspb-images.com) The OTs support globally Hurricanes are predicted to dry spells and extreme rainfall, significant levels of biodiversity, become more intense in the increasing risks of drought as including over 1,500 endemic region due to climate change. well as flooding; species. To date, around 28,000 • limited adaptation options species of plants, and Current understanding of the for endemic species that are fungi have been recorded in the vulnerability to biodiversity loss on already affected by invasive OTs, but there are an estimated the OTs related to climate change species and other factors.

How protected are the UK’s Overseas Territories?

The world’s governments have The Aichi target emphasises the with a number of protected areas agreed 20 “Aichi” targets within need for areas of particular awaiting approval and/or the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity importance for biodiversity to be designation. Montserrat is 2011–2020. Target 11 focuses on encompassed in protected areas currently working with protected areas and other effective or other site-based conservation stakeholders and consulting on area-based measures, and seeks mechanisms. The assessment Marine Protected Areas. conservation of at least 17% of found that currently only 8% of the terrestrial and inland water and area encompassed in Important Improving coverage across all the 10% of coastal and marine areas. Bird and Biodiversity Areas across OTs will require investment in the Territories is protected. improving knowledge of An assessment of protected area distribution and density of species, coverage across the UK’s OTs Increasing protected area coverage developing measures to enforce shows that eight have protected through local processes should be protection and effective areas considerably exceeding the a priority alongside other actions: monitoring, while also balancing target, with six of these covering for example tackling invasive conservation priorities and 30% or more of their land area. species, restoring habitat and environmental protection with Overall coverage across the OTs controlling development. economic development. varies: currently four have less than 5% of their land area in In Bermuda, Turks and Caicos, the More details here: Wilkinson et al. protected areas. British Virgin Islands and Cayman (2017). Environmental Islands, this is already underway Conservation, First View, 1–8. The Henderson fruit dove is one of four bird species found only on Henderson Island.

48 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 49 Birds in the UK Overseas Territories Birds in the UK Overseas Territories Alison Copeland Bermuda - conservation action leads to increased cahow population The cahow is the subject of a The Bermuda petrel, or cahow, is up to 75% of petrel chicks were up to 16 nesting pairs in 2016. A a burrow-nesting seabird endemic killed each year by tropicbirds that second colony on Nonsuch Island to Bermuda and is listed on entered and took over the nests. was established to provide added translocation project. Appendix I of the Convention on security should a catastrophic Migratory Species. An innovative Although there have been at least event affect the first colony. mix of habitat management and six cases of rats swimming out active population management to one or more of the cahow By the summer of 2017, 65 measures have led to encouraging nesting islands since the late fledglings had been translocated increases in the population. There 1990s, there has only been one to the second colony, and one were 117 breeding pairs in the case of petrel chicks being killed pair had returned to nest. New 2016-2017 breeding season, with by rats during these episodes; artificial concrete or prefabricated 61 chicks successfully fledged in in all other cases, the rats were plastic nest burrows are being spring 2017. killed by rodenticides before they constructed on Nonsuch and could cause any harm. There the original nesting islands, to The cahow nesting islands are is an active annual rodenticide provide new nesting habitat and limited-access nature reserves programme which aims to keep maximise the carrying capacity of under the Bermuda National the nesting islands rat-free. the smaller nesting islands, which Parks Act 1986 and the cahow lack soil for the petrels to dig is given the highest level of A translocation project to move their burrows. Bermuda has been protection possible under the cahow chicks from low-lying struck directly by four hurricanes Protected Species Act 2003 of nesting islands to establish a in the last three years, which Bermudian law. new nesting colony on the larger have caused serious erosion and and more elevated Nonsuch flooding on the nesting islands; Measures have been taken to Island has proved successful. some are completely submerged stop nest-site competition with Nonsuch Island has been restored during storms. the white-tailed tropicbird, by to a pre-colonial forest habitat, fitting baffles with specially-sized and invasive species are strictly In addition, in 2013 nesting activity holes at nest entrances - these controlled. This project, initiated was confirmed at a sixth island exclude tropicbirds but allow in 2013, has established a new (Southampton Island) in the Castle entry by the petrels. Prior to this, nesting colony which is already Harbour Islands Nature Reserve, about 1km from Nonsuch Island. At-sea distribution was previously Rockhopper penguins facing challenges unknown, but geolocator tags have been deployed and birders in other Numbers of northern rockhopper 250,000 breeding pairs and still of the Southern Ocean’s surface

Alison Copeland localities have been asked to look penguins have been decreasing declining. Approximately 85% of waters and large-scale climate out for and report cahows at sea. across their range following the global northern rockhopper anomalies having a negative exploitation by humans during penguin population is found impact on foraging habitat and The Cahow Recovery Programme the late 19th century. The causes within the OTs in the Tristan da the species’ diving behaviour. continues; latest updates can be of the current decline are poorly Cunha archipelago and Gough A decline in breeding success found in annual reports online understood and may be numerous. Island, and the species is currently has been attributed to decreases at environment.bm/cahow- The following factors are all likely listed as Endangered on the IUCN in prey availability. Furthermore, recovery-programme to be implicated: introduced Global Red List. unusual or extreme Tours of Nonsuch allow school species and diseases; changes weather events linked children and adults to see cahow in sea surface temperature and Northern to climate change chicks in the nesting season, and marine productivity; human rockhopper can affect breeding Major (shutterstock.com)Zoltan adults can be seen flying during activities and pollution; and penguins success directly by offshore boat tours. A camera, increasing competition for habitat will face new causing egg or chick known as the “CahowCam”, and food with a rapidly-growing challenges in the mortality. streams live footage from a nest fur seal population. coming decades as on Nonsuch Island to the internet climate change continues at: nonsuchisland.com/live- The global population is now to alter marine foraging The cahow population is closely monitored. cahow-cam conservatively estimated at around habitat through warming

50 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 51 Ed Marshall (rspb-images.com) Current and planned surveys

The information summarised in The state of the UK’s birds 2017 is drawn from the annual and periodic monitoring programmes described below, and from the work of individual ornithologists. Anyone interested in taking part in these surveys should contact the relevant organisations at the addresses given on page 55. Bird surveys take place all over the UK.

The Breeding Bird Survey The Wetland Bird Survey specialists, across the UK. to target conservation action. (BBS) is the monitoring scheme (WeBS) is a partnership between Contact the BTO. Co-ordinated by JNCC, it is a BirdTrack is a year-round bird The BTO Nest Record Scheme for common and widespread the BTO, the RSPB and the bto.org/wbbs partnership between the statutory recording system run by the (NRS) gathers vital information breeding land birds throughout JNCC (the latter on behalf of the @BBS_birds nature conservation agencies, BTO in partnership with the on the breeding success of the the UK. It aims to provide data statutory nature conservation and research and conservation RSPB, BirdWatch Ireland, the UK’s birds by asking volunteer on population trends to inform bodies: DAERA, NE, NRW and The Goose & Swan Monitoring organisations. Scottish Ornithologists’ Club and nest recorders to find and follow and direct conservation action. SNH) and in association with the Programme (GSMP) is a suite of Contact the JNCC. the Welsh Ornithological Society. the progress of individual birds’ It is a partnership between the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT). surveys (funded under the WWT, jncc.defra.gov.uk/page-1550 The collection of species list data nests. The scheme is funded by British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Contact the BTO. JNCC and SNH partnership), @JNCC_UKseabirds from a large number of observers a partnership of the BTO and the the Joint Nature Conservation bto.org/webs designed to accurately assess the helps a range of national research JNCC (on behalf of DAERA, NE, Committee (JNCC) (on behalf of @WeBS_UK abundance and breeding success The Big Garden Birdwatch is and monitoring objectives. NRW and SNH). the Department of Agriculture, of the UK’s native geese and the largest wildlife survey in the Contact the BTO. Contact the BTO. Environment and Rural Affairs, The Waterways Breeding Bird migratory swans during the world. Its simple design (one hour birdtrack.net bto.org/nrs Northern Ireland (DAERA), Natural Survey (WBBS) has been non-breeding season. watching birds in your garden @BirdTrack @_BTO England (NE), Natural Resources running since 1998. This Contact the WWT. or local park over one weekend Wales (NRW), Scottish Natural scheme, and its predecessor the monitoring.wwt.org.uk/our- in January) means around half The Ringing Scheme is run A programme of UK-wide Heritage (SNH)) and the RSPB. Waterways Bird Survey (WBS) work/goose-swan-monitoring- a million people take part every by the BTO and covers Britain surveys of priority breeding Contact the BTO. that ran from 1974 to 2007, aims programme/ year. The data provide an excellent and Ireland. It is funded by a species are conducted under the bto.org/bbs to monitor riverside breeding @WWTworldwide snapshot of garden bird numbers partnership of the BTO, the JNCC Statutory Conservation Agencies @BBS_birds birds, particularly waterway across the UK. (on behalf of DAERA, NE, NRW and RSPB Breeding Bird Scheme The BTO Heronries Census Contact the RSPB. and SNH), the National Parks and (SCARABBS) Programme. collects counts of apparently rspb.org.uk/birdwatch Wildlife Service (Ireland) and the @RSPBScience occupied nests each year, from @RSPBScience ringers themselves. Volunteer as many heronries as possible bird ringers collect data on the Seabirds Count is the fourth throughout the UK. It also Garden BirdWatch (GBW) is survival, productivity, movements breeding seabird census to be aims to monitor populations of a year-round scheme recording and condition of birds. Project conducted in the UK and Ireland. colonial waterbirds, especially the weekly occurrence and ringing (such as the Constant It is being coordinated by the Joint grey herons, little egrets and numbers of birds in participants’ Effort Sites Scheme, the Ringing Nature Conservation Committee Andy Hay (rspb-images.com) Andy Hay cormorants. gardens. The data collected Adults for Survival project, and and recruitment of regional Contact the BTO. provide valuable information on other targeted ringing) forms an co-ordinators is underway. bto.org/heronries-census annual and seasonal changes important part of the Scheme. Volunteers are currently being @_BTO in bird use of rural and urban Contact the BTO. sought to assist with surveys habitats. These can be related bto.org/ringing during the 2018 and 2019 The Seabird Monitoring to population trends in the @_BTO breeding seasons. Please contact Programme (SMP) gathers wider countryside. seabirdscountcoordinator@ information on breeding Contact the BTO. jncc.gov.uk if you can help. numbers, breeding success and bto.org/gbw Contact the JNCC. other parameters to help us @BTO_GBW @JNCC_UKseabirds There are many ways for volunteers to contribute. understand drivers of change and

52 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 53 Acknowledgements Who we are Monitoring of birds in the UK and the Overseas Territories, such as The state of the UK’s birds 2016 is also available online on the websites that covered in this report, involves a broad partnership of government of the BTO, RSPB and WWT (see addresses below). agencies, NGOs, sponsors and independent ornithologists, including: Designed and published by the RSPB on behalf of:

BirdLife International, BirdWatch Research Group, Irish Whooper Group, Seabird Group, Shetland The Royal Society for the Protection Ireland, British Birds, British Swan Study Group, Isle of Man Oil Terminal Environmental The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) Natural England (NE) of Birds (RSPB) Trust for Ornithology, British Department of Environment, Advisory Group, Wales Raptor The Nunnery 4th Floor, Foss House Waterways, Centre for Ecology Food and Agriculture, Joint Nature Study Group, Welsh Ornithological Thetford Kings Pool UK Headquarters and Hydrology, Darwin Plus Conservation Committee, Manx Society, the Wildfowl & Wetlands Norfolk 1-2 Peasholme Green The Lodge Initiative, Department of BirdLife, Ministry of Defence, Trust, and the Wildlife Trusts. IP24 2PU York Sandy Bedfordshire Agriculture, Environment and National Trust, National Trust Tel: 01842 750050 YO1 7PX Tel: 0300 060 1911 SG19 2DL Rural Affairs, Northern Ireland, for Scotland, Natural England, In particular, we thank the BTO Scotland Tel: 01767 680551 Department for Environment, Natural Resources Wales, thousands of volunteers who School of Biological and gov.uk/government/organisations/ Food and Rural Affairs, Northern England Raptor Forum, have contributed their time, Environmental Sciences natural-england RSPB Northern Ireland Department of Environment and Northern Ireland Raptor Study passion and expertise to the Cottrell Building, University of Stirling @NaturalEngland Headquarters Belvoir Park Forest Natural Resources, Government Group, Raptor Study Groups, monitoring programmes and Stirling FK9 4LA Natural Resources Wales (NRW) Belfast of Bermuda, Environment Agency, Rare Breeding Birds Panel, the surveys included in this report. Tel: 01786 466560 BT8 7QT Environment Wales, European Royal Society for the Protection We also thank the landowners T≈ Cambria Tel: 028 9049 1547 Bird Census Council, European of Birds, Scottish Government and their agents, tenants and BTO Wales 29 Newport Road Union Life Programme, Forestry Environment and Forestry employees who have allowed Thoday Building Cardiff RSPB Scotland Headquarters 2 Lochside View Commission, Forest Enterprise, Directorate, Scottish Natural surveyors to visit their land to Deiniol Road CF24 0TP Bangor Tel: 0300 065 3000 Edinburgh Park Game and Wildlife Conservation Heritage, Scottish Ornithologists’ count and monitor birds. Gwynedd Edinburgh Trust, Greenland White-fronted Club, Scottish Raptor Monitoring LL57 2UW naturalresources.wales EH12 9DH Goose Study, Irish Brent Goose Scheme, Scottish Raptor Study Tel: 01248 383285 @NatResWales Tel: 0131 317 4100

BTO Northern Ireland Department of Agriculture, RSPB Wales Headquarters Northern Ireland Environment Environment and Rural Affairs, Castlebridge 3 Agency Northern Ireland (DAERA) 5-19 Cowbridge Road East Klondyke Building Cardiff Cromac Avenue Klondyke Building CF11 9AB Gasworks Business Park Cromac Avenue Tel: 029 2035 3000 Malone Lower Gasworks Business Park Belfast Lower Ormeau Road rspb.org.uk BT7 2JA Belfast @RSPBScience BT7 2JA @Natures_Voice [email protected] Tel: 0300 200 7856 [email protected] The RSPB is a registered charity daera-ni.gov.uk in England & Wales 207076, bto.org @nieaevents@daera_ni in Scotland SC037654. @_BTO Whimbrel by Oliver Smart (rspb-images.com) Oliver Whimbrel by Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust (WWT) Registered charity no 216652 in England & Wales; SC039193 Slimbridge in Scotland. Gloucestershire GL2 7BT Joint Nature Conservation Tel: 01453 891900 Committee (JNCC) monitoring.wwt.org.uk Monkstone House @WWTworldwide City Road Peterborough Registered charity no. 1030884 PE1 1JY in England and Wales, SC039410 Tel: 01733 562626 in Scotland.

jncc.defra.gov.uk @JNCC_UK @JNCC_UKseabirds

54 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 The state of the UK’s birds 2017 55 Pantones CMYK

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Front cover image: golden plover by Mark Hamblin (rspb-images.com)

The state of the UK’s birds 2017 report was produced by the RSPB, a registered charity in England and Wales 207076, in Scotland SC037654. 220-0653-17-18

56 The state of the UK’s birds 2017