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Masterarbeit MASTERARBEIT Titel der Masterarbeit „The Effects of Electoral Systems on Party Systems: The Cases of Japan and Taiwan“ Verfasserin Silvia Höger, BA angestrebter akademischer Grad Master of Arts (MA) Wien, 2015 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 066 864 Studienrichtung lt. Studienblatt: Masterstudium Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft Ostasiens Betreuer: Mag. Dr. Alfred Gerstl TABLE OF CONTENT 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 4 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................ 11 2.1. DUVERGER’S HYPOTHESES ......................................................................................... 11 2.2. DEFINITIONS: PARTY SYSTEM AND ELECTORAL SYSTEM .......................................... 12 2.3. CLASSIFICATIONS: TYPES OF ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AND PARTY SYSTEMS ................ 14 2.4. COUNTING PARTIES .................................................................................................... 16 2.5. DISTRICT MAGNITUDE ................................................................................................ 17 2.6. PROPORTIONALITY ..................................................................................................... 19 2.7. THRESHOLD ................................................................................................................ 20 2.8. FROM DISTRICT LEVEL TO NATIONWIDE LEVEL ......................................................... 21 2.9. ISSUE DIMENSIONS ..................................................................................................... 22 2.10. POLARIZATION AND LEFT-RIGHT AXIS ....................................................................... 24 2.11. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH .................................................................................. 24 3. THE SNTV SYSTEM AND THE MMM SYSTEM .................................................... 26 3.1. THE SNTV SYSTEM IN OVERVIEW ............................................................................. 26 3.1.1. The Nomination Problems and Issues caused by SNTV ..................................... 26 3.1.2. Proportionality and the Party System under SNTV ........................................... 27 3.2. THE MMM SYSTEM IN OVERVIEW ............................................................................. 28 4. JAPAN ............................................................................................................................. 30 4.1. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW.............................................................................................. 30 4.2. OVERVIEW OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND PARTY SYSTEM IN JAPAN ............................. 33 4.3. EMPIRICAL PART 1: ELECTORAL SYSTEMS ................................................................. 35 4.3.1. SNTV System and MMM System in Japan ......................................................... 35 4.3.2. The Number of Parties ....................................................................................... 36 4.3.3. Fractionalization ................................................................................................ 40 4.3.4. Proportionality ................................................................................................... 41 4.3.5. Advantage Profile ............................................................................................... 43 4.3.6. Summary of Empirical Part 1 ............................................................................. 46 4.4. EMPIRICAL PART 2: SOCIETAL & PARTY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTS ............................ 47 4.4.1. Issue Dimensions before the Electoral Reform .................................................. 47 4.4.2. LDP Dominance and Adaptability ..................................................................... 48 4.4.3. Issue Dimensions after the Electoral Reform ..................................................... 49 4.4.4. Issue-Oriented and Party-Centered Campaigning ............................................ 51 4.4.5. Summary of Empirical Part 2 ............................................................................. 52 4.5. ANALYSIS JAPAN ........................................................................................................ 52 5. TAIWAN .......................................................................................................................... 55 5.1. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW.............................................................................................. 55 5.2. OVERVIEW OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND PARTY SYSTEM IN TAIWAN .......................... 57 5.3. EMPIRICAL PART 1: ELECTORAL SYSTEMS ................................................................. 61 5.3.1. SNTV System and MMM System in Taiwan ....................................................... 61 5.3.2. The Number of Parties ....................................................................................... 62 5.3.3. Fractionalization ................................................................................................ 65 2 5.3.4. Proportionality ................................................................................................... 66 5.3.5. Advantage Profile ............................................................................................... 68 5.3.6. Summary of Empirical Part 1 ............................................................................. 71 5.4. EMPIRICAL PART 2: SOCIETAL & PARTY SYSTEM DEVELOPMENTS ............................ 72 5.4.1. Issue Dimensions ................................................................................................ 72 5.4.2. Polarization of the Party System ........................................................................ 74 5.4.3. Parliamentary and Semi-Presidential Systems in Taiwan ................................. 75 5.4.4. Summary of Empirical Part 2 ............................................................................. 76 5.5. ANALYSIS TAIWAN ..................................................................................................... 77 6. ANALYSIS: JAPAN AND TAIWAN IN COMPARISON ......................................... 79 6.1. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS ..................................................................................... 79 6.2. THE SNTV SYSTEMS IN COMPARISON ........................................................................ 79 6.3. DEVELOPMENTS UNDER THE SNTV SYSTEMS ............................................................ 81 6.4. ISSUE DIMENSIONS AND POLARIZATION UNDER THE SNTV SYSTEMS ........................ 82 6.5. THE MMM SYSTEMS IN COMPARISON ....................................................................... 83 6.6. DEVELOPMENTS UNDER THE MMM SYSTEMS ............................................................ 85 6.7. ISSUE DIMENSIONS UNDER THE MMM SYSTEMS ........................................................ 86 6.8. SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. 87 7. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................... 90 LIST OF REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 96 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... 102 LIST OF GRAPHS ............................................................................................................... 102 APPENDIX 1: IMPORTANT ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................... 103 APPENDIX 2: ABSTRACT ................................................................................................ 104 APPENDIX 3: ZUSAMMENFASSUNG ........................................................................... 106 APPENDIX 4: CURRICULUM VITAE ............................................................................ 108 3 1. Introduction Japan and Taiwan offer the rare opportunity of comparing electoral systems, as they both had a similar electoral system before and after their respective electoral reforms, which occurred in Japan in 1993 and in Taiwan in 2005. For many years, both countries used the rather uncommon single non-transferable vote system (SNTV) and after their reforms switched to a mixed- member majoritarian system (MMM). The SNTV system is basically a plurality system with more than one seat to be elected per district. The MMM system combines both plurality (i.e. single-member districts) and proportional representative component (further explanation in chapter 2.3). But why do electoral systems matter, and what consequences a reform can have? Electoral systems are important institutions in a democracy. They determine how votes get translated into seats, thus an electoral outcome can lead to very different seat distributions depending on the electoral system. The result may be a complete different government. Further, electoral systems are hardly ever changed, as too many factors have to coincide and very diverse actors have to come to an agreement that may hurt one political party afterwards while advantaging the other political party. In 1994 Japan reformed its electoral system after many years of consideration. In Taiwan as well reforms had been in discussion since the first real competitive election in 1992, but it took until 2005 for the reform
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