Appendix a Swansea to Cardiff in 30 Minutes & a Swansea Bay Metro September 15Th, 2017 Version

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Appendix a Swansea to Cardiff in 30 Minutes & a Swansea Bay Metro September 15Th, 2017 Version Appendix A Swansea to Cardiff in 30 minutes & A Swansea Bay Metro September 15th, 2017 Version 2.1 Mark Barry, Professor of Practice in Connectivity at Cardiff University’s School of Geography & Planning Disclaimer: This article has nothing to do with the current and ongoing procurement of the Wales and Borders Franchise & South Wales Metro by Transport for Wales. It is based on Mark Barry’s own ideas or those already in the public domain and not those of Transport for Wales, Welsh Government, Cardiff University or any other organisation. A radical ~£1Bn investment in rail links to and within Swansea Bay to deliver a major boost to the regional economy: ➢ 30-minute journeys to Cardiff and 2 hour 15 minutes to London & Heathrow ➢ The foundation of a rail based Swansea Bay Metro ➢ New development and regeneration opportunities across the region A move beyond a tactical argument about electrification to a more strategic discussion about the vision and future connectivity of Swansea Bay Figure 4 - Illustration of main Swansea Bay Metro Schemes Electrification: yes, then no, then yes, then no… The electrification of the GWML from London to Swansea was originally announced by the then Labour Government in 2009. This was "held" pending a review by the new Coalition Government in 2010. Following that review, on March 1st, 2011, The UK Government confirmed the electrification of the Great Western Main Line from Paddington to Cardiffi. Having been part of the campaign, I was interviewed on BBC Wales Evening news from Swansea along with the then Secretary of State for Wales, Cheryl Gillan, and asked whether the electrification should or would be extended to Swansea; I confidently predicted that it would! On September 6th the same year, I presented my evidence for the Cardiff Business Partnership to the Westminster Transport Committee as part of their review of High Speed Railii. That submission set out the strategic need to upgrade the Great Western Line from Paddington to Swansea beyond the electrification programme announced in March as a counter to the negative economic abstraction impacts of HS2 on South Wales and South West England. See Figure 5. Figure 5 Ambitions for GWML set out in, "A Metro for Wales' Capital City Region”, in 2011iii Then, in July 2012, the UK Government, seemingly in response to a broad consensus and a positive business case, committed to the electrification of the GWML to Swansea and “electrification” of the valley lines – all part of a major programme across the UK iv All seemed well in the world…. but now, oh dear, what a sorry tale. Once the DfT decided in 2016 to procure only bi-mode IEP trains for the GWRv, it was only a matter of time before the decision to cancel electrification from Swansea to Cardiff was made. That decision in 2016 had less to do with the “benefits” of diesel electric bi-modes (which in reality perform less well, are operationally less efficient and have a poorer environmental profile than the 100% electric trains originally anticipated) and more to do with the escalating costs of, and delays to, the wider electrification programmevi of which the Cardiff-Swansea section was not immune. I also think that the creation of a Treasury mandated Brexit “contingency” fund as well as increasing austerity, are also contributory factors. In that environment, just arguing for a £000Ms of infrastructure that won’t reduce journey times is perhaps not the best use of one’s time. An opportunity for bigger thinking? Swansea to Cardiff in 30 minutes… So, rather than join the obvious outcry, I want to avoid the politics and focus on perhaps a more ambitious scheme that presents a real opportunity to transform connectivity to/from and within Swansea Bay and one that delivers real economic benefits. Something both Welsh and UK Governments could support. I think it is possible to deliver Cardiff to Swansea rail journey times of 30 minutes and Swansea to London of 2 hours 15 minutes and at the same time, establish the foundation of a rail based, Swansea Bay Metro. The economic impact of such intercity journey time reductions and enhanced local connectivity, would be significant; it would also help drive more demand for rail services which would also enhance the case for electrification. The current limitations of the Swansea Bay rail network… Current journey times to Swansea from Cardiff (which are only 55Km apart) are unnecessarily extended (at least 55 minutes) because of two key constraints. Firstly, the low line speed between Cardiff and Bridgend and secondly, the more challenging need for the main line to meander around to Neath and Skewen between Port Talbot and Swansea. As the crow flies Swansea and Port Talbot are only ~11Km apart but rail journeys take over 20 minutes! In addition, the promise of faster journeys on the Swansea District Line from West Wales to Cardiff is diminished by the commercial reality of a rail line that completely by-passes the revenue offered in Swansea. The other freight line which runs up to the Neath Valley is disconnected and not used for passenger services. The location of Swansea High Street station itself, being a terminus, is also a constraint as it requires through trains to enter and reverse back onto the main route near Morfa adding 10/15 minutes to through journey times. See Figure 6. Figure 6 Rail constraints in Swansea Bay The opportunity for Swansea Bay… The question then, is what could address all the transport issues and at the same time unlock wider development and regeneration opportunities to help grow the economy of the entire Swansea Bay City Region. The wider Swansea Bay Region (Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and Carmarthen) has a population of ~500,000vii (and the official Swansea Built Up Area just over 300,000viii). Its economy though, is relatively weak compared to other major UK cities as the GVA figures for Swansea show Figure 7. Figure 7 GVA (income) per head of Swansea Vs other UK cities However, Swansea has significant economic assets and potential; it has a leading UK university and a unique urban coastline - a lovely ugly town as Dylan Thomas put it. The University of Wales Trinity St David’s development at SA1, Swansea University’s new bay campus, Bay Studios and Amazon signpost the development potential along the Fabian Way coastal corridor. The recently announced Swansea Bay City Deal also sets out ambitious plans for life sciences, the digital economy, creative industries, smart manufacturing and energy; it could also be home to a new Tidal Power industry for the UK. Swansea Bay is clearly a region with huge potential. To realise this economic potential, Swansea Bay needs, like other successful regions, a good transport network to connect its key centres and development areas – Swansea, Neath, Port Talbot, Llanelli, Fabian Way – to help them support more employment from across the region; it also needs better connections to West Wales, Mid Wales, Cardiff, Bristol and London to maximise its potential. The issue of regional peripherality is also very real given that HS2 will bring all major English cities (apart from Newcastle) within 90 minutes of Londonix; when one considers that current rail journey times from Swansea to Cardiff, Bristol and London are approximately one, two and three hours respectively the need is clear. Within Swansea Bay itself road congestion is a real and growing issue (along with the resulting air quality impacts). Like every successful city region Swansea Bay needs more and better quality public transport. Historical Context… The ideas presented below are not as radical as they sound as there used to be a rich network of railways serving Swansea and Neath See Figure 8. As was the case in many cities across the UK during the 1950s-1970s a lot of our rail infrastructure was pulled up and built over given the huge growth in car ownership and usage at that timex Figure 9. The folly of those interventions is only now being recognised given the rapid growth in rail usage over the last twenty years Figure 10. Figure 8 Pre-Beeching rail infrastructure in Swansea Figure 9 Passenger Transport % in UK 1950 – 2010 Figure 10 Rail passenger growth, decline & growth since 1830 The idea, A Swansea Bay Metro… So, here’s an idea (and I give some credit for this to Jim Steer of Greengauge 21 with whom I originally discussed the bones of this project in 2011!) See Figure 11 below. Let’s upgrade line speeds between Cardiff to Bridgend to at least 100 mph (that may require some new bridges to replace a level crossing or two). Then, and this is the hard bit, let’s build a new section of track that spurs off the current line just west of Port Talbot, heads over the River Neath and approaches Swansea along the coast parallel to Fabian Way (in part using some of the old rail alignment); it then elevates over Fabian Way near SA1 on the approach to and over, the River Tawe to an expanded Swansea Central Station (see in red on Figure 11) that has two new through platforms immediately adjacent to and on the eastern side of, the current station building. More ambitious still one could consider relocating the entire station immediately to the south over Parc Tawe. This ambitious scheme would deliver a more direct route to Swansea from Cardiff 10km shorter than the current route that meanders via Neath. These interventions could reduce journey times between Cardiff and Swansea (with stops at only Bridgend and Port Talbot and to the west Llanelli) to perhaps 30 minutes and reduce journey times from west of Swansea to Cardiff by up to 30 minutes (without having to use the SDL).
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