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Tinley!Manor! South! Development! ! Final!Report!! ! ! !

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Tinley!Manor! South! Development! ! Final!Report!! ! ! ! 2014! ! ! ! ! SOCIO&ECONOMIC! IMPACT!ASSESSMENT! FOR!THE!PROPOSED! TINLEY!MANOR! SOUTH! DEVELOPMENT! ! FINAL!REPORT!! ! ! ! Commissioned)by:) ! ! Prepared)by:) ! ! ! SOCIO&ECONOMIC!IMPACT!ASSESSMENT!FOR!THE!PROPOSED!TINLEY!MANOR!SOUTH!DEVELOPMENT!! (FINAL!REPORT!–!DECEMBER!2014)! TABLE)OF)CONTENTS) 1) INTRODUCTION)........................................................................................................................)4) 1.1! BACKGROUND!AND!PURPOSE!..................................................................................................................!4! 1.2! PROJECT!APPROACH!.................................................................................................................................!4! 1.3! PROJECT!METHODOLOGY!.........................................................................................................................!6! 1.4! STRUCTURE!OF!THE!REPORT!....................................................................................................................!6! 2) SPATIAL)ANALYSIS)....................................................................................................................)8) 2.1! LOCATION!OF!THE!SITE!.............................................................................................................................!8! 2.2!! DESCRIPTION!OF!THE!PROPOSED!DEVELOPMENT!...................................................................................!8! 2.3! SURROUNDING!NODES!...........................................................................................................................!10! 2.3.1! COMMERCIAL!ACTIVITIES!................................................................................................................!10! 2.3.2! RESIDENTIAL!ACTIVITIES!..................................................................................................................!10! 2.3.3! RESORTS!..........................................................................................................................................!11! 2.3.4! INDUSTRIAL!FACILITIES!....................................................................................................................!11! 2.4! MARKET!DELINEATION!AND!AREAS!OF!IMPACT!.....................................................................................!12! 2.5! URBAN!AND!SPATIAL!ECONOMIC!PLANNING!PRIORITIES!FOR!KWADUKUZA!AND!SURROUNDS!..........!13! 3) SOCIOFECONOMIC)PROFILE)......................................................................................................)17) 3.1! DEMOGRAPHICS!.....................................................................................................................................!17! 3.2! EDUCATION!AND!EMPLOYMENT!............................................................................................................!18! 3.3! HOUSEHOLD!INCOME!ANALYSIS!............................................................................................................!19! 3.4! HOUSING!PROFILE!..................................................................................................................................!19! 3.5! CONCLUSION!..........................................................................................................................................!21! 4) MARKET)ASSESSMENT).............................................................................................................)22) 4.1!GENERAL!MARKET!TRENDS!........................................................................................................................!22! COMPLETED!COMMERCIAL!AND!RESIDENTIAL!BUILDINGS!..........................................................................!22! INTEREST!RATES!............................................................................................................................................!23! INFLATION!....................................................................................................................................................!23! HOUSING!MARKET!........................................................................................................................................!23! ! ! ! Page!2!of!40! SOCIO&ECONOMIC!IMPACT!ASSESSMENT!FOR!THE!PROPOSED!TINLEY!MANOR!SOUTH!DEVELOPMENT!! (FINAL!REPORT!–!DECEMBER!2014)! THE!FNB/BER!BUILDING!CONFIDENCE!INDEX!...............................................................................................!25! 4.2! GROWTH!IN!LOCAL!ECONOMIC!BASE!.....................................................................................................!25! 5) SOCIOFECONOMIC)IMPACT)ASSESSMENT).................................................................................)27) 5.1!OVERVIEW!OF!THE!ASSESSMENT!...............................................................................................................!27! 5.1.1:! ANTICIPATED!IMPACT!AREAS!.........................................................................................................!27! 5.1.2:! IMPACT!FACTORS!...........................................................................................................................!28! 5.2! ECONOMIC!IMPACT!................................................................................................................................!28! ANTICIPATED!TOTAL!CAPITAL!EXPENDITURE!...............................................................................................!29! ECONOMIC!IMPACT!......................................................................................................................................!29! CAPITAL!EXPENDITURE!.................................................................................................................................!30! BULK!INFRASTRUCTURE!EXPENDITURE!........................................................................................................!30! MUNICIPAL!RATES!........................................................................................................................................!31! 5.3! SOCIO&ECONOMIC!IMPACT!....................................................................................................................!32! IMPACT!RATING!MODEL!...............................................................................................................................!32! 5.4! IMPACT!MITIGATION!MEASURES!...........................................................................................................!36! 6)CONCLUSION)...............................................................................................................................)38) ! ! ! ! ! ! Page!3!of!40! SOCIO&ECONOMIC!IMPACT!ASSESSMENT!FOR!THE!PROPOSED!TINLEY!MANOR!SOUTH!DEVELOPMENT!! (FINAL!REPORT!–!DECEMBER!2014)! 1 INTRODUCTION) 1.1 BACKGROUND!AND!PURPOSE! Tongaat!Hulett!Developments!commissioned!this!socio&economic!impact!assessment!of!the!proposed!Tinley! Manor! South! Development! to! identify! the! major! socio&economic! impacts! likely! to! occur! as! a! result! of! the! development!on!the!surrounding!communities,!as!well!as!further!outlying!regions.!The!study!examines!and! provides!an!economic!context!for!the!range!of!social!and!economic!impact!areas!identified.!Detailed!impacts! on!these!key!indicators!have!been!modelled!and!these!are!described!in!detail!in!the!sections!that!follow.! It!is!understood!from!the!documentation!provided!that!the!proposed!development!involves!the!establishment! of!a!mixed&use!development!comprising!approximately:! • 46.2ha!of!high&density!residential;! • 12ha!of!low!to!medium!density!residential;! • 44.6ha!of!low!density!residential;! • 17.8ha!of!medium!impact!mixed&use;!! • 3.1ha!of!low!impact!mixed&use!1;! • 3.7ha!of!low!impact!mixed&use!2;!! • 31.3ha!of!resort!development;!! • 0.6ha!of!service!area!and!nursery;!and!! • 277.7ha!of!open!space!and!roads.!! Of!the!total!site!size!of!437ha,!159.3ha!is!developable,!which!is!36.32%!of!the!total!site!area.!! The!proposed!development!site!will!be!accessed!from!by!a!planned!intersection!to!the!east!of!the!N2!highway.! The! proposed! development! is! south! of! the! current! Tinley! Manor! Village! and! north! of! Salt! Rock.! The! development! lies! within! the! rapidly! growing! northern! corridor! linking! eThekwini! to! Ballito.! It! is! therefore! necessary!that!the!socio&economic!impact!considers!the!future!urban!environment!that!it!will!be!located!in.! 1.2 PROJECT!APPROACH!! The!approach!that!is!followed!during!this!report!is!to!assess!the!socio&economic!impact!of!the!development!as! a!whole,!and!for!the!specific!individual!components!of!the!development.!This!approach!will!be!adopted!due!to! the!extent!of!the!mixed&use,!residential!and!resort!developments.!The!following!aspects!have!been!considered! during!the!assessment:! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Page!4!of!40! SOCIO&ECONOMIC!IMPACT!ASSESSMENT!FOR!THE!PROPOSED!TINLEY!MANOR!SOUTH!DEVELOPMENT!! (FINAL!REPORT!–!DECEMBER!2014)! CAUSES)OF)THE)IMPACT) SOCIOFECONOMIC)IMPACT)AREAS)CONSIDERED) Low)and)Medium)Impact)MixedF ! The!demand!for!and!viability!of!the!proposed!sites! Use)) ! Property!value!impacts! ! Impact!on!existing!retail/commercial!activity! ! Impact!on!existing!business!park!development! ! The!indirect!socio&economic!such!as:!! o impacts!of!the!traffic!impact,!! o environmental!impact,!! o visual,!noise,!! o density/congestion!and!! o other!impacts!that!may!be!identified;! ! Other!impacts!as!may!be!identified! Residential)sites)comprising)low,) ! The!demand!for!residential!sites!to!the!extent!and!nature!of!being!
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