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RISKRISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE IMPORT AND KEEPING OF EXOTIC VERTEBRATES IN AUSTRALIA Mary Bomford Bureau of Rural Sciences Canberra, Australia © Commonwealth of Australia 2003 ISBN 0-9750443-3-8 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth available from the Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Commonwealth Copyright Administration, Intellectual Property Branch, Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts, GPO Box 2154, Canberra ACT 2601 or at http://www.dcita.gov.au/cca. The Commonwealth of Australia acting through the Bureau of Rural Sciences has exercised due care and skill in the preparation and compilation of the information and data set out in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Bureau of Rural Sciences, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data set out in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law. Editor: Penny Olsen, School of Botany and Zoology, Australian National University. Credit for cover photographs: Adelaide Zoological Gardens (zebra, lemur, ocelot); Queensland RLPB (cane toad); Department of Agriculture, Western Australia (starling); New South Wales Agriculture (feral cat). Design: Big Island Graphics, Canberra Preferred way to cite this publication: Bomford, M. (2003) Risk Assessment for the Import and Keeping of Exotic Vertebrates in Australia. Bureau of Rural Sciences, Canberra. Postal address: Copies available from: Bureau of Rural Sciences BRS Publication Sales GPO Box 858 GPO Box 858 Canberra, ACT 2601 Canberra ACT 2601 Ph: 1800 020 157 Fax: 02 6272 2330 Email: [email protected] Internet: http://www.affa.gov.au/brs page 2 Contents Foreword...................................................................................................................................................................5 Summary...................................................................................................................................................................7 Key points..................................................................................................................................................................7 Factors influencing establishment in the wild .............................................................................................................8 Factors influencing feasibility of eradication .............................................................................................................10 Factors influencing pest potential .............................................................................................................................11 Using the risk assessment model to determine a species’ VPC Threat Category .......................................................14 Terminology.............................................................................................................................................................14 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................................15 Section 1: Review of factors affecting the potential of an exotic vertebrate to establish and become a pest .......................19 1.1 Probability an escape or release will occur ..........................................................................................................20 1.1.1 Factors affecting the probability of escape or wilful release .......................................................................20 1.1.2 Risk assessment significance of potential to escape from captivity .............................................................22 1.2 Probability escaped or released individuals will cause harm ................................................................................22 1.3 Probability escaped or released individuals will establish a free-living population ...............................................22 1.3.1Predicting establishment success.................................................................................................................22 1.3.2Uncertainty in predicting establishment success ........................................................................................ 37 1.4 Probability of eradication...................................................................................................................................38 1.4.1 Criteria for determining feasibility of eradication......................................................................................38 1.4.2 Practical considerations for meeting eradication criteria for exotic species .................................................41 1.4.3 Risk assessment significance of probability of eradication..........................................................................42 1.5 Probability exotic species will become a pest ......................................................................................................43 1.5.1 Types of damage caused by exotic pests .....................................................................................................43 1.5.2 Predicting pest status ................................................................................................................................48 1.5.3 Factors contributing to uncertainty in assessing pest potential...................................................................55 Section 2: The risk assessment procedure to determine VPC Threat Categories for exotic vertebrates...............................57 2.1 Information requirements for species risk assessments........................................................................................57 2.2 Introduction to the risk assessment model..........................................................................................................61 2.3 Risk assessment..................................................................................................................................................62 2.4 Decision process ................................................................................................................................................69 2.5 Limitations of the risk assessment model for assessing VPC Threat Categories...................................................71 Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................73 References ...............................................................................................................................................................74 page 3 Appendices Appendix A: Introductions of exotic vertebrates to Australia....................................................................................89 Appendix B: Climate match data for mammals and birds introduced to mainland Australia....................................96 Appendix C: CLIMATE matching model .............................................................................................................102 Appendix D: Major agricultural commodities that could be damaged by exotic animals........................................105 Tables Table 1: Establishment success rates for exotic mammal and bird species ...........................................................23 Table 2: Proportion of exotic mammals and birds that are pests .........................................................................49 Table 3 : Commodities that could be damaged by a wild population of an exotic species....................................59 Table 4: Calculating Total Commodity Damage Score.......................................................................................67 Table 5: Score sheet for risk assessment model ...................................................................................................69 Table 6: VPC Threat Categories ........................................................................................................................70 Table A1: Exotic vertebrate introductions to Australia..........................................................................................89 Table B1: Climate matches for mammals successfully introduced to mainland Australia ......................................96 Table B2: Climate matches for mammals unsuccessfully introduced to mainland Australia ..............................98 Table B3: Climate matches for birds successfully introduced to mainland Australia..........................................99 Table B4: Climate matches for birds unsuccessfully introduced to mainland Australia....................................100 Table C1: The 16 climate parameters in the CLIMATE program.......................................................................102 Figures Figure C1: CLIMATE match maps for the song thrush ......................................................................................103 Figure D1: Major agricultural commodities in Australia ......................................................................................105 page 4