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After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview]

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After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] “Certainly, [Uzbek society] requests better living conditions. At the same time, the society is very conservative, even the younger generation (especially outside Tashkent). Most still believe the affirmation that stability is the greatest value. There are even opinions that Mirziyoyev’s reforms are too rapid,” said Temur Umarov, an expert on Uzbekistan and consultant at the Carnegie Moscow Center. He answered CABAR.asia’s questions. Follow us on Facebook CABAR.asia: On December 22, parliamentary elections were held in Uzbekistan. The OSCE/ODIHR mission in the Interim Report recognized “visible progress in improving election legislation and practices”. How do you comment on this? Temur Umarov: Indeed, the progress in the procedures and preparations for the elections cannot be denied. First, the legal basis for the whole procedure was created. For the first time, a single Electoral Code regulates elections in the country. Earlier, there were five separate election laws in Uzbekistan; their points sometimes even contradicted each other. Second, a single electronic voters list was created (which included about 20 million potential voters). In addition, for the first time, people were able to vote in prisons. Special attention was paid to 1.8 million Uzbek migrants around the world. After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] There were other improvements: the number of electoral areas was increased and the population was evenly distributed among them; the quota for the environmental movement in Parliament was removed: they, like everyone else, have to contest a seat in the Legislative Chamber now. A lot has changed in the election campaigns’ financing: all expenses of election campaigns have been paid by the state; the gender balance situation improved in parties. The wide media coverage of the election campaigning should be highlighted separately. The Uzbek society has never evidenced such a Temur Umarov. Photo from Facebook thing before. TV debates, campaigning on social networks, parodies of candidates on Youtube, bloggers’ interviews. This is good news. On the other hand, there were still obstacles to registering new parties, and independent candidates could not be nominated outside the party lists. There were other problems (ballots stuffing, fraud attempts), but the fact that these problems were covered in the media and social networks is a positive trend. What to expect from the results of the parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan? Are the fundamental changes possible? Will the new Parliament become a tool for controlling the executive branch? First, the elections were important experience for all the participants: candidates, parties, government agencies and the voters themselves. There was nothing like this for almost thirty years in the country. Therefore, initially, neither the authorities, nor the experts, nor the voters had any expectations of the results. Only five pro-presidential parties, which were previously represented in Parliament, participated in the elections. The Uzbekistan Liberal Democratic Party traditionally won the election. In other words, the basics have remained unchanged. Even the CEC stated that it is necessary to wait several more electoral cycles for the realistic elections. After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] The real benefit, even though it is small, of these elections is the Parliament’s renewal: more young people and women are represented in it. Parliamentary elections day in Uzbekistan. Photo: currenttime.tv According to the Uzbek media, the registered parties have different views on the important for the country issues. For example, they have a different opinion regarding joining the EAEU. What does this mean? We do not have to make a big deal of this, and here is why: indeed, parties are actively discussing the pressing issues: lack of electricity and gas supply in cities and villages, poor education quality; some interviews even raised very sensitive issues, for example, human rights. However, this is discussed within the framework of competition between parties. Not a single candidate opposed the authorities, criticized the government’s actions or disputed any reform. Therefore, issues on which the country’s leadership has not yet expressed a clear opinion can be discussed. It would be hard to imagine big debates about joining the EAEU if the President, for example, had already announced his decision. What do you think about Uzbekistan joining the EAEU? After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] Hard to tell. Joining the EAEU has both pros and cons. Those market segments that are better developed in Uzbekistan than in the EAEU countries will undoubtedly benefit (textiles, agriculture, car industry). However, less developed industries will not be able to compete; this is probably obvious. Definitely, it will be easier for Uzbek migrants to live in Russia, but this does not mean that joining the EAEU will solve all problems. However, we should not forget about the political component of the issue. Joining the EAEU may prevent Uzbekistan from joining the WTO; US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross spoke openly about this. Do not forget about the Western sanctions against Russia; among all other things, it will badly affect the investment climate of the country, while increasing its attractiveness is the goal of the economy liberalization. We must also understand the complexity of the situation for the country’s leadership. Moscow presses directly and indirectly: these debates started from the speech of Valentina Matviyenko, Russian Senate speaker. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has been leading Uzbekistan for three years. What would you consider as his achievements? As the achievements of the last three years, I would mention the loosening control over the media by authorities, unblocking media resources like Ferghana, improving relations with neighbors, rehabilitation of some political prisoners, closing the Jaslyk prison, and reforms course. It is impossible to imagine that after the first President’s death anyone would take the lead and continue the Karimov’s policy: any leader would have to liberalize control for own benefit. It is impossible to imagine that after the first President’s death anyone would take the lead and continue the Karimov’s policy: any leader would have to liberalize control for own benefit. However, I would not give credit for these achievements to the President only. Moreover, for Mirziyoyev, liberalization is the main mechanism of legitimization and consolidation of his position in the opinion of Uzbek citizens and international community. It is impossible to imagine that after the first President’s death anyone would take the lead After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] and continue the Karimov’s policy: any leader would have to liberalize control for own benefit. Uzbek opposition leader Muhammad Salih said he was disappointed with the President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s policy. According to him, the President spent three years on “populism” and did not address the influential representatives of the previous regime, who may influence him. Is this criticism justified? Muhammad Salih contradicts himself in his statement. Although there is no agreed-upon definition of the “populism” concept, the most researchers emphasize a number of features. For example, if a politician does not divide society into theoretical “people” and “elite”, he cannot be called a populist. Populists also consider themselves people’s representatives, and oppose the elites, the establishment and the system. Shavkat Mirziyoyev represents the system and elites of Uzbekistan himself. Therefore, there is no point in labeling him as a populist. I can only guess what exactly Muhammad Salih meant when he spoke of “populism”. I can only assume that he could mean that Mirziyoyev makes popular decisions in order to gain public support. Indeed, this is how the President (for personal purposes as well) makes such decisions, but this is normal: all politicians want to please people. After Islam Karimov, Any Leader of Uzbekistan Would Be Forced to Liberalize [Interview] For Mirziyoyev, liberalization is the main mechanism of legitimization and consolidation of his position. Photo: president.uz I do not understand the thesis “he did not address the influential representatives of the previous regime”, since Mirziyoyev himself is one of the influential representatives of the previous regime. Moreover, there were the purges in the power structures, prosecutors’ replacement, and cases against officials; of course, it is possible to replace everyone, but then there will be no one to lead the country. The problems cannot be solved that easily. From the sidelines, it is noticeable that civil society institutions become more active in Uzbekistan. The freedom of speech horizons have expanded; a series of important bills are discussed. To what extent are these changes irreversible? Is there a chance that President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will abolish reforms and resume his predecessor’s policy? This is highly improbable. Returning to Karimov’s policy is almost impossible. All reforms today are the basis on which Mirziyoyev will rely; the stability of his policy in the future will depend on it. In this regard, Uzbekistan has just begun the path from
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