1 EUROTRAC-2 (A EUREKA Environmental Project) GLOREAM Global and Regional Atmospheric Modelling Annual Report 2000 Subproject Coordinator Peter J.H. Builtjes, TNO-MEP, Apeldoorn (NL) Deputy Subproject Coordinators Adolf Ebel, University of Cologne, Cologne (D) Hans Feichter, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (D) Steering Committee Members Erik Berge, The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (N) Carlos Borrego, University of Aveiro, Aveiro (P) Rainer Friedrich, Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy, Stuttgart (D) Heinz Hass, Ford Research Center, Aachen (D) Anne Lindskog, Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Göteborg (S) Nicolas Moussiopoulos, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki (GR) Eberhard Schaller, Brandenburgische Technische Universität, Cottbus (D) Zahari Zlatev, National Environmental Research Institute, Roskilde (DK) Scientific Secretary Annette Münzenberg, DLR - Projektträger des BMBF, Bonn (D) International Scientific Secretariat GSF-Forschungszentrum für Umwelt und Gesundheit GmbH Munich, Germany September 2001 2 Contents 1. Report on the work of the subproject 1 1.1 Summary 1 1.2 The aims of the period's work 1 1.3 Model investigation and improvement 2 1.3.1 Activities during the year 2 1.3.2 Principal results 4 1.3.3 Main conclusions 5 1.3.4 Policy-relevant results 6 1.3.5 Aims for the following year 7 1.4 Global modeling 7 1.4.1 Activities during the year 7 1.4.2 Principal results 8 1.4.3 Main conclusions 8 1.4.4 Policy relevant results 9 1.4.5 Aim for the coming year 9 1.5 Model application and assessment studies 9 1.5.1 Activities during the year 9 1.5.2 Principal results 10 1.5.3 Main conclusions 12 1.5.4 Policy relevant results 13 1.5.5 Aim for the coming year 13 1.6 Computational aspects 14 1.6.1 Why are computational difficulties permanently increasing? 14 1.6.2 Treating models with more advanced modules 15 1.6.3 Improvement of the numerical algorithms and the computational techniques 17 1.6.4 Main benefits from successful resolving of the computational problems 17 1.6.5 Other scientific computing activities carried out by members of GLOREAM 18 1.6.6 References 18 1.7 Model evaluation and validation 18 1.8 Overview over policy relevant results 19 1.9 General aims for the coming year 20 1.10 Closing remark 20 3 2. Authors and titles of theses resulting from the subproject work 26 3. Publications in refereed literature 26 4. Reports from the principal investigators 27 4.1 Introduction 27 4.2 Authors and titles of the individual reports 30 ANNEX: Names and details of the current steering committee and principal investigators 150 1 1. Report on the work of the subproject 1.1 Summary Also in 2000 the subproject GLOREAM was active and lively. The following items can be mentioned: • A growing number of models which address the modeling of aerosols, including PM10 and PM2.5, • a model intercomparison between 5 modelling groups performing real-time ozone forecasting, • continuous progress in the area of data assimilation, inverse modeling, nesting and parallel techniques, • model validation studies, mostly focused on measuring campaigns like Berlioz and Loop campaigns, • an increase in the number of global modeling studies, • a continuation of the cooperation with SATURN and GENEMIS, and an increase in cooperation with TOR-2 and CMD. The fourth GLOREAM workshop was held in September 2000 in Cottbus, Germany. Nearly all PI’s attended the workshop, 29 talks were held. At the beginning of 2000 GLOREAM had 37 principal investigators. One new project was included during 2000, 2 projects were finalized. So by the end of 2000 GLOREAM had 36 principal investigators. The funding situation of GLOREAM was reasonable, but mostly exclusively based on national funding, and no funding from the 5th Framework program. An overview of the models used in GLOREAM is given at the end of this chapter in tabulated form. The table includes the capabilities of the models, and their current and future applications. The mid term review ranked the scientific quality of GLOREAM as good, the policy relevance as high. It was recommended to put more emphasis on aerosol modeling, more synthesis is needed and the cooperation with other subprojects for validation data should be intensified. 1.2 The aims of the period’s work The general aim of GLOREAM is to investigate by means of advanced and integrated modeling the processes and phenomena which determine the chemical composition of the troposphere over Europe and on a global scale. The aims for 2000 were: • Further improvements in aerosol modeling • Performance of model calculations in relation to the EU-directives • Improvements in data assimilation • Intensified interactions with global modeling • Modeling of real time ozone forecasting 2 • Further model validation against field campaigns • Improvement of cooperation with TOR-2 and CMD In fact, all these items have been addressed in 2000. The closer interaction with global modeling as performed in Hamburg (Mozart model, ECHAM-5) and in Cambridge (TOMCAT model) is very welcome. Also the closer relation with TOR-2 and CMD should be mentioned. Representatives of these 2 subprojects gave presentations at the Cottbus workshop. GLOREAM is divided in five working groups, the results of these working groups are presented below. 1.3 Model investigation and improvement 1.3.1 Activities during the year Work has been done with emphasis on • improvement of input data: landuse data, biogenic and anthropogenic emissions including the development of new tools based on geographic information systems (GIS), • use of satellite data to improve cloud parameters in CTMs, • parameterization and investigation of chemical and dynamical processes (e.g. aerosols and clouds), • investigation of the performance and sensitivity of operationally used air pollution modeling systems, • long-term simulations including aerosol and photochemical modeling; chemical composition of aerosols, • development and testing tools for application to EU directives 96/62; 99/30, • development of advanced numerical schemes for comprehensive air pollution models, e.g. for data assimilation on the basis of adjoint modeling and Kalman filtering. Incorporation of improved input data, sensitivity studies Emission data used in the modeling systems participating in GLOREAM are in a permanent process of improvement by intensive interaction with the EUROTRAC subproject GENEMIS. Emission data has been used for source category dependent emission scenarios (Jonson et al.: investigation of the impact of emissions due to ships with the EMEP model with regard to the „International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships“; MARPOL) or modeling of field experiments (e.g. BERLIOZ; Memmesheimer et al.). Some specific efforts have been undertaken to generate emission input data for the DMU-ATMI-THOR and REGINA model. Data from EMEP and GENEMIS are combined with local data sets for Denmark (Brandt et al.). Emission data for primary TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 has been generated by the TNO for the European scale. This data has been used by several groups within GLOREAM. Satellite data is used to improve cloud parameters in air quality modeling (Östreich et al., NOAA-AVHRR; Meteosat). A Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used to prepare land use data and emissions for modeler’s use together with a Relational Databank Management System (RDMBS). The GIS/RDMBS has been used to improve the interface to air pollution models and to investigate 3 the effect of spatial resolution and different numerical methods used to generate land use data for model applications. The uncertainty of biogenic emissions based on landuse data has been investigated. Methods developed are used in the MCCM (Smiatek). The boundary and/or initial values for chemical transport models have been generated by data assimilation (Kalman-Filter; Builtjes et al., 4DVar, Elbern) or results from global models (Jonson et al.). Data assimilation has also been applied focusing on emission input. CO2-emissions based on the EDGAR system (1°x1°) for the further development of the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) to handle CO2 are implemented in hemispheric modeling. Improvement and investigation of process parameterization Considerable efforts have been undertaken to include atmospheric particle modeling and multiphase interactions (gas-phase, aerosol-phase and cloud modeling). Highly sophisticated modules have been developed which can be used for air pollution planning e.g. with respect to EU air pollution directive 96/62 and its daughter directive 99/30. The new aerosol modules have been implemented into 3D models and applied within long-term simulations on the time scale of a year (EURAD-MADE-system for 6 months in 1995; Ackermann et al.; LOTOS- model for 1994 and parts of 1997 and 1998; Builtjes et al.; EUROS-System for 1994; Matthijsen et al.). The MADE module allows for the treatment of secondary organic aerosols, sedimentation and cloud-aerosol interactions. The chemical composition of atmospheric particles can be considered for different seasons. Aerosol modeling within EURAD-MADE includes the nesting option and has been applied from the European scale to North-Rhine- Westphalia (Memmesheimer et al., interaction with subproject AEROSOL). Calculations and analysis of dynamical and chemical processes on the basis of episodic model simulations have been done with the EURAD model, in particular for BERLIOZ and the alpine region (VOTALP) (Memmesheimer et al.). The coupling of atmospheric chemistry with a convective boundary layer model is used to investigate the interaction of chemistry and dynamics. It has been applied to field data taken over the Gulf of Mexico (Lüken et al.). Turn over of sea-salt particles and formation of sodium nitrate particles has been included in the EMEP photochemical model (Jonson et al.). Model hierarchy, linking of different scales; operational use Models in GLOREAM now usually use the nesting technique to consider regional and local scales (Europe -> urban).