WFRXXX10.1177/1946756718777490World Futures Reviewde Jouvenel and Radford research-article7774902018

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World Futures Review 11–­1 Futuribles: Origins, Philosophy, © The Author(s) 2018 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav and Practices—Anticipation for https://doi.org/10.1177/1946756718777490DOI: 10.1177/1946756718777490 Action journals.sagepub.com/home/wfr

Hugues de Jouvenel

Abstract Interest in the future blossomed on both sides of the Atlantic after World War II (WWII). Formalized methods were developed in the defense sector but swiftly spread to the corporate world. Various groups, public, private, and governmental, became enthusiastic about reflecting on the future. The American and European approaches to reflecting on the future, to applying foresight and la prospective varied; however, there was cooperation. A chronological overview, this article follows the philosophical gaze of Bertrand de Jouvenel, the French writer and futurist who coined the term futuribles and founded a center that would become Futuribles International. Its current president, his son, Hugues de Jouvenel, outlines the background of this Paris-based center for foresight thinking and studies, which aims to integrate a sense of the long term into decision making and action. To this end, Futuribles performs various scanning functions, publishes reports plus a specialized journal, and trains a diverse clientele in foresight methodology. Moreover, Futuribles International honors the tradition of public intellectual discussions (roundtable series) in the spirit of serving an informed citizenry. The author reminds readers of the necessity of foresight today when unelected multinationals play an unprecedented role yet fall through the cracks of almost all national and international regulation.

Keywords foresight, philosophy, history, prospective, futuribles, Bertrand de Jouvenel, political science, strategic planning

Futuribles’ Founding (1960) may be said of , the French writer who pioneered the futuristic novel (even sci- Since the dawn of time, Man has worried about ence fiction), or Albert Robida, who imagined the future and sought to know what lay ahead. a hundred years in advance that we could soon This led to various practices such as consulting communicate remotely using a “telephono- oracles who supposedly could interpret precur- scope,” something similar to today’s Internet sors, or signs presaging more or less happy and even Skype. More recently, other innova- events, that is, guessing one’s destiny through tors from the social sciences have attempted to various means. explore the future, like H. G. Wells did in his Some people preferred to project their own dreams or nightmares (utopias vs. dystopias) on the future. They tried to imagine what the Futuribles International, Paris, France future could hold by using their knowledge and imagination, as in the case of Leonardo da Corresponding Author: Hugues de Jouvenel, Futuribles International, 47 rue de Vinci. Some may occasionally have demon- Babylone, Paris, 75007, France. strated rather surprising clairvoyance. This Email: [email protected] 2 World Futures Review 00(0) famous lecture The Discovery of the Future according to Berger, “[a]ctions taken [relied delivered in 1902 to the Royal Institution. on] an analogy or relied on an extrapolation,” Indeed, this would become a major source of but these procedures stemmed from a retro- inspiration for several pioneers in future stud- spective attitude that could be justified only ies, a field that boomed primarily in the second during a period of continuity and stability half of the twentieth century. (Berger 1957). He went further to underscore Reflection on the future developed first in how when entering a period of change and rup- the United States as an initiative of Franklin D. tures, or breakdowns, we need to “set up, next Roosevelt, who established the President’s to the retrospective disciplines . . . prospective Research Committee on Social Trends (1933). studies”. Gaston Berger went on to create the However, thinking about the future really took “Centre d’études prospectives” (Center for off after the Second World War through the Foresight Studies, or CEP), which gathered Pentagon, in particular, the RAND Corporation, intellectuals, business leaders, and top civil founded in 1948 to work on defense issues. At servants. Unfortunately, this futures studies that time, its promoters were basically con- center could not survive its founder’s death in cerned with geostrategic matters and paid spe- a car accident in 1960. cial attention to the use of new technologies, The translation of the French term prospec- notably the atomic bomb, in international con- tive, in contrast with retrospective as seen ear- flicts. Within the RAND, a team made up of lier, was a problem from the start because, in Hermann Kahn (see his masterful book On French, it refers to the future both as a field to Thermonuclear War), Theodore Gordon, and explore and a field for decision and action. The Olaf Helmer played a pioneering role in devel- most relevant term in English is probably fore- oping formal methods of foresight, for exam- sight, but the rather general futures studies ple, the Delphi Method and scenario building. may also be applicable. Some have suggested These methods would later be adapted to civil- futures research as the academic research into ian life and improved over the years. the emergence of futures from the past. The At this time, the first concerns about the trouble is that neither foresight, futures studies, earth’s resources emerged. In fact, further to nor futures research encompass the two dimen- the Paley Report (Bush 1945), a foundation sions of anticipation and action inherent in named Resources for the Future was created. Berger’s prospective. It is generally accepted Not long afterward, the first Soviet satellite, that strategic foresight is the application of Sputnik 1, was launched, which led to the space academic research to situations and conditions race. In parallel, buoyed by advances in sci- in a society; hence, action is included. Nothing ence and technology and specifically by the is set in stone, however, as there are different famous report, The Endless Frontier (Bush schools of thought with their own jargon, 1945), the American Congress created the regardless of language, and an increasing num- Commission on the Year 2000 as part of the ber of practitioners may be seeking a more American Academy of Arts and Science. Its active form of foresight, too. On balance, one working papers appeared under the banner thing remains certain at least in my own opin- Toward the Year 2000 in a special issue of the ion and experience: Futurists are primarily journal Daedalus (summer, 1967). At the same concerned about what may happen and what time, the World Future Society (1966) was can be done in the long term. Obviously, much formed and quickly attracted many well- more could be written about the various known figures, mainly Americans, interested notions and underlying philosophies regarding in the future. Man’s role in building the future; however, this Meanwhile in France, la prospective article seeks simply to chart Futuribles’ start emerged as of the late 1950s, thanks to the and growth. efforts of Gaston Berger (1957), who defined Historically, another instigator of futures the term in an article titled simply “Human thinking was Bertrand de Jouvenel. In fact, he Sciences and Forecasting.”1 Until then, coined the term futuribles for his concept de Jouvenel and Radford 3 combining future and possible. Bertrand de accelerating, which means by units of time, Jouvenel taught in the United States and France there are more new problems arising. As a and published L’art de la conjecture (The Art of result, the pressure placed on authorities by Conjecture), which expounded his perspective issues requiring decisions increases with time. quite clearly. De Jouvenel may have rarely used In this case, it would seem natural and reason- the French term prospective, yet his book able that decisions be prioritized according to remains a resounding plea for long-term reflec- their urgency. However, de Jouvenel points out tion that he believed necessary to the exercise of that no problem is put on the agenda until it power, a topic on which he had written an becomes a “burning” issue, when things are at authoritative book Du Pouvoir: histoire such a pass that our hand is forced. This is naturelle de sa croissance [On Power: The known in chess as a “forced move.” Natural History of Its Growth] (1945). What Paraphrased in more modern parlance, there is follows herein are the reasons that led Bertrand no longer any possible choice among the dif- de Jouvenel to forge his concept of futuribles ferent actions designed to model a situation and lay the foundations for an independent insti- that is still flexible (determining actions). tute, the International Futuribles committee, There is no response prepared in advance for a later the Futuribles International association. pressing problem that presents only one way out. Administrators respond to necessity or put Why Futuribles? out fires and justify themselves later by saying they had no option to decide differently. De Jouvenel’s Art of Conjecture contains a Bertrand de Jouvenel concludes by telling chapter titled “On the Nature of the Future,” readers that, indeed, leaders or administrators which highlights the fundamental difference no longer had the choice. However, this is an between past and future. Key extracts have entirely different matter, for if they can be been retranslated and paraphrased herein. exempt of blame for the decision that had actu- According to de Jouvenel, the past is not only ally become unavoidable, they cannot be the domain of facts over which we have no blameless for allowing the situation to reach power but also the domain of knowable facts. the point that took away all freedom of choice. If we paraphrase further his rationale: Man is In fact, he considered it proof of a lack of fore- an active agent whose future is a field of free- sight to fall under the sway of necessity, espe- dom and power, but for Man, as a cognizant cially if there were means to both avoid and be being, the future is a field of uncertainty. Note aware of situations in the making while they that this is a field of freedom because one is were still malleable. In other words, without free to conceptualize that which does not exist forecasting activity, there is no real freedom of yet, because it is situated in the future. It is a decision. field of power because we have some power to A third consideration prompted de Jouvenel validate what we have conceptualized. In fact, to create an independent institution. While for de Jouvenel, the future is our only field of acknowledging that all decision makers should power, for we can act only on the future. He seek the input of futurists, they should also be explains that future-oriented thinking cannot setting up a foresight/futures cell in their area with any certainty perceive things that will of interest or concern. In the same breath, he happen and states that thinking about the future also warns his readers of the following risk: can only help envisage possible futures cells or “labs” work confidentially for their (futuribles) rather like possible descendants of own leaders so they possess information on the the present state (de Jouvenel 1972). future, which the public does not (de Jouvenel Why have these reflections on the future 1972). While always expecting the public to become so important now, notably regarding have blind faith in their judgment, leaders the exercise of power? Bertrand de Jouvenel might actually gain the public’s trust more explains it by asking us all to consider public readily by highlighting that they had “con- decisions. He reminds us that if change is sulted the augurs” or “taken the auspices.” In 4 World Futures Review 00(0) other words, what is a revival of an ancient •• Lack of rigor from those working on political artifice? possible futures. De Jouvenel continues by decrying how easy it is to claim that a decision was dictated The Futuribles International committee was by a valid forecast if it was kept secret and the made up of a dozen experts, mainly French and [public] opinion is unable to judge how American. For five years (1960-1965), it received appropriate the decision was given a certain funding from the Ford Foundation. During that forecast or to criticize the same forecast. period, the committee forged a vast network of Forecasts underlying public decisions should experts (political scientists, sociologists, econo- be public. In other words, what is needed is a mists, historians) mandated to carry out more or “foresight forum” during which advanced less futures/foresight studies. Close to one hun- (read future-oriented) opinions are aired on dred essays appeared as supplements published what may arise and what may be done. He in bulletins from the Société d’études et de docu- realized the need for continuity and stressed mentation économique, industrielle et sociale that as the passage of time yields new situa- (Society of Studies and Social, Industrial and tions and new seed events, such a forum must Economic Documentation, or SEDEIS), whose operate continuously. The idea is not to fore- president was Bertrand de Jouvenel. Listing the see the future once and for all but to discuss it vast array of topics covered by these essays is continuously. The “foresight forum” must be beyond the scope of this article. Suffice it to say seen as a true institution in which quite that some treated specific countries (Germany, diverse experts bring forth special forecasts Argentina, India, Myanmar, Spain), while others that may be combined as more general treated regions and continents (Western Africa, forecasts. Asia, Europe). Also treated were economic sec- Bertrand de Jouvenel did use the term fore- tors, social aspects of development, and public cast with a meaning that corresponds more to institutions. Working groups were also formed, today’s usage in futures studies; however, his notably on agrarian structures and agricultural thoughts and the foundations of what would policies, on the future of Communist economies, become Futuribles were already clearly estab- and on the foresight of international relations. lished. Initially, they led to the Futuribles During that five-year period, given the rigor International committee, then to the Futuribles previously mentioned, three methodological con- International association, which remains ferences were held, respectively, in Geneva (June driven by the same concerns almost sixty years 1962), Paris (July 1963), and at Yale University later. in New Haven, Connecticut (December 1964). Futuribles also organized a major international congress on the future of political institutions in The Start of the Futuribles Paris in April 1965. Having attended, I recall not International Adventure only its success but the keen interest in thinking (1960) about the future shown by many participants. In fact, several of them would further contribute to Bertrand de Jouvenel launched Futuribles in the field internationally, for example, Daniel 1960 as an international committee comprising Bell, Herman Kahn, and Hasan Ozbeckhan, to representatives of the social sciences from var- name but a few. ious countries. All of these people were The Ford Foundation funding continued until obsessed by the following three dangers: the end of 1965, a date that no one seemed to see coming. Regardless, around the SEDEIS was a •• Governmental error through lack of suf- network of motivated collaborators, and stud- ficient thinking about the future on the ies previously entrusted to the Futuribles part of those governing, International committee continued being sent. At •• Governmental monopoly on futures/ that point, Bertrand de Jouvenel opted to com- foresight thinking, and bine the SEDEIS publications, in particular the de Jouvenel and Radford 5

Futuribles papers, in a periodical titled Analyse & intellectuals and decision makers interested in Prévision [Analysis and Forecasting]. In parallel, the long term. Pierre Piganiol, former director SEDEIS published a collection of books in of the Délégation à la recherche scientifique et French including those of Bertrand de Jouvenel, technique (Delegation of scientific research The Art of Conjecture (1964) and Arcadie, essais and technology, or DGRST), then operating as sur le mieux vivre [Arcadia, Essays on Better the ministry of research, was elected president Living] (1968); one by Henri Mendras, La Fin of the association in 1970. Already at this des Paysans [The End of the Peasant] (1967); point, grants were decreasing while fixed costs and another by François Hetman, Le Langage de were increasing. Other resources were needed, la prévision/The language of Forecasting (1969). notably contractual studies. This became the The Futuribles International association was role of the “Applied Prospective Lab,” created founded in 1967 as a nonprofit association, in 1970 within the Futuribles association and according to the French Law of 1901. Bertrand headed by André-Clément Decouflé, concur- de Jouvenel was its first president, followed soon rently an executive director of the association. by Pierre Massé (former Commissioner of the The Futuribles International association, for Plan, France’s state planning commission). In which I worked as an associate researcher with France at that time, there was tremendous enthu- the United Nations seeking to set up a World siasm for futures studies, especially within the Commission on the Future, organized an interna- State. Within the Plan, the French state commis- tional conference with the group Mankind 2000, sariat dedicated to planning, a specific futures led essentially by Robert Jungk and Johan group was launched with a horizon line of 1985. Galtung. During this event, the World Futures Meanwhile the Délégation à l’Aménagement du Studies Federation (WFSF; 1973) was created, territoire et à l’action régionale (Inter-ministerial and Bertrand de Jouvenel would be its president office for territorial development, or DATAR) briefly. The federation is closely tied to an era was tasked with the challenge of fighting against when several movements were afoot, the Club of “Paris and the French Desert.”, the sprawling Rome, Bariloche Foundation (Argentina), Istituto growth of Paris to the detriment of other French Ricerche Applicate Documentazioni e Studi regions. A few years later, the new environmental (IRADES) (Italy), and Dakar Club (Ivory Coast), affairs ministry also became very much con- to name but a few. cerned about the long-term future. As an associa- Unfortunately, funds from the French pub- tion, Futuribles received generous financial lic purse dried up while contracts in futures support from the French government. studies could not generate enough of a margin Futuribles moved into a sumptuous man- to ensure the viability of this “Maison des sion called “La Maison des Futuribles” (1968) Futuribles.” The financial situation of the where it drew together in one place most of the Futuribles association quickly deteriorated French centers seemingly involved in futures from 1971 to 1973. studies. One was the CEP created by Gaston Berger. Also on site was the College of advanced techniques, which was actually a The Renewal of Futuribles group mainly dealing with new technologies. International (From 1973 Another was the SEDEIS, which handled the Onward) Futuribles association’s secretarial operations for a while and the periodical 2000, published In 1973, I was asked to take charge of the asso- at the time by the DATAR. ciation as its executive director and to define a At this point, the Futuribles International radical turn-around strategy that would require association exercised two main functions: slashing fixed costs (personnel and infrastruc- managing a major documentation center and ture) and restarting activities on a new basis. library of works about the future, and acting as The plan adopted set the following three an international meeting place for all those objectives: 6 World Futures Review 00(0)

•• Continue the documentation center’s publishing (especially the journal Futuribles), activities but focus on content analysis and contractual strategic foresight studies and of the main foresight studies to tease out consulting. The overarching goal was to distin- the key lessons (Result: a newsletter guish clearly the association’s activities of public Actualités prospectives [Foresight interest from its commercial endeavors. News] was started to provide a periodic In the 1990s, an informal club was created report on the heavy and emerging trends to support the association. The club comprised likely to shape the future); several major public corporations such as the •• Continue operating as an international French utility company (EDF), the French rail- center for meetings but limit the number way (SNCF), France Telecom, and the national of meetings to emphasize exchanges. post office and gas company. At this time, One important example was the interna- Jacques Lesourne, former director of the tional colloquium held with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Governmental Office for Natural Development (OECD) Interfutures program, Resources, which led to the publication former director of the French daily Le Monde, in French and English of Economies of and professor at the Conservatoire national des Raw Materials (Poquet 1977) and arts et métiers (CNAM, Paris), was elected European colloquia held in Arc-et- president of Futuribles International. Senans, with the theme “Europe Facing the Future’s Challenges”; and Futuribles International’s •• Develop foresight studies funded New Strategy (2013–2018) through grants and contracts with public and private organizations in France and Since then, Futuribles International has vigor- abroad. ously developed its foresight activities, nota- bly horizon scanning, or monitoring, and In 1975, the association, renamed simply analysis. When I left the administration of the “Futuribles International,” had regrouped as an association in 2013, François de Jouvenel was independent unit and was once again recruiting. elected executive director. Under his leader- Philippe de Seynes, former assistant secretary ship, a new strategic plan was adopted by the general of the United Nations, was elected pres- general assembly, which reaffirmed the asso- ident. Four years later, Mahdi Elmandjra, for- ciation’s will to fight for more long-term think- mer assistant director-general of United Nations ing in decisions and set out four priorities: Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisa- tion (UNESCO), would succeed him. Also in •• Understand current changes, 1975, at Futuribles International, I founded the •• Explore possible futures, journal Futuribles to replace Analyse & •• Debate what is at stake in the future, Prévision [Analysis and Forecasting], which and the new management team at SEDEIS had •• Contribute to preparing public policy stopped publishing, and the journal Prospectives, and organizational strategies. founded by Gaston Berger but by then without any editorial leadership. The foresight monitoring activity mentioned The decade from 1980 to 1990 saw great above continues to be a cornerstone more than development in the association’s activities. ever because it seeks to pinpoint and analyze Databases of foresight centers and of biblio- on an ongoing basis the heavy and emerging graphic information were created. Several trends, indicators of discontinuity and rupture European colloquia on foresight, notably in con- or breakdown that may have a significant junction with the European Commission, were impact on the future, regardless of field. This held. Contractual foresight studies were con- work, relying on the significant coordination ducted, and in 1987, a commercial entity, of human and financial resources among Futuribles Inc., was formed to cover two fields: members, some eighty public and private de Jouvenel and Radford 7 organizations active in very different sectors, in the public sector and organizations of a com- has yielded three types of publication: briefs mercial nature obeying the market. An entity on emerging trends, foresight studies, and a structured like Futuribles International, which is biennial monitoring report. private and independent working primarily on According to the core philosophy of issues of public interest like a think tank, was Futuribles, a foresight or futures studies center long considered anachronistic. I recall my father, must also be a forum for debate on the main Bertrand de Jouvenel, warning me of the perils issues at stake in the future. Here, reflection on involved when I was invited to take over the the future may be presented and debated by executive management. However, foresight, or various experts. To ensure that this occurs, prospective, as we practice it at Futuribles is roundtable meetings are organized monthly at more a philosophy than a toolbox. It is a form of the association’s headquarters. During the first citizen’s engagement rather than a job. Of course, quarter of 2018, topics included “Democracies that still means we should use the most rigorous withstanding new challenges,” “The rise of methods possible! terrorism and organized crime,” “Demographic Almost sixty years have passed since my aging and retirement reforms,” and “How epi- father laid the foundations of Futuribles. One genetics can change our lives.” Timely confer- may wonder how relevant his argumentation ences are also held. In December 2017, “The was at the end of the 1950s in terms of the crisis and democracy’s future” was organized progress observed since. Indeed, given the with the Fondation Prospective et Innovation major stakes ahead as we can perceive them (Prospective and innovation foundation, or now, should our approach to the future be sub- FPI) and held at the political science school. In stantially different? I do not think so and return addition, this association is committed to orga- to the rudiments of the foresight process as we nizing every two years an international practice it here (happily, Futuribles is not alone “Futures Forum”, which will focus this year on in this). One quote from the philosopher lifestyles in the year 2050. Maurice Blondel sums up our convictions: Beyond the work seeking to identify the “The future is not to be foreseen but to be pre- roots of possible futures in the present, other pared.” Phrased differently, it is built through projects strive to explore these futures more decisions and human action, with some restric- systematically within a specific number of tions, of course. I would like to paraphrase this regions and fields, for example, a foresight philosophy by stating that the future is a field study on artificial intelligence (AI). Also, fur- of freedom, power, and will. Below, I will out- ther to a foresight report on the Sahel region, line my reasons. Futuribles International envisages to create an To me, foresight as practiced at Futuribles, observatory and a foresight forum on the West stems from a real revolution in thought. We African space. In parallel, the association know that the philosophies of yesteryear relied offers significant training activities, for exam- largely on an auto-regulated or God-regulated ple, several workshops on foresight concepts, system, which self-perpetuated according to its methods, and practices as well as training own logic (cf. the theme of “nature as good”) seminars on the future of lifestyles, on urban and in which Man was only a subject. These strategies, smart cities. Futuribles International were substituted by a philosophy in which intends to serve as a center for debate and Man intends to be an actor, if not the master. In research on foresight methods notably through this respect, there may be a link connecting the a dedicated structure called the “Prospective very long-term transition from traditionalist Lab.” values, whose legitimacy is based on transcen- dence, to the so-called individualist values Foresight as a Philosophy whose legitimacy resides in the individual. This individualism was borne into the eigh- In France, there traditionally is a strict separation teenth century by the Enlightenment and between organizations of public interest actually Kantian philosophy. 8 World Futures Review 00(0)

Let us clarify the concept of individualism predetermined. What is clear is that the faith here, as it often leads to misunderstanding. once invested in the self-regulation of systems, Individualist is not a synonym of egotistical. In that is, individuals’ acquiescing to a fully laid fact, the sweeping transition referred to above out destiny, did yield progressively to the cult is one analyzed long ago by Emile Durkheim, of the free and responsible Man. This is an Max Weber, and Norbert Elias, among others. individual all the freer and more responsible It refers to the types of legitimacy on which given that his power has continued to grow, our values are based. In an insightful article notably through scientific and technological titled “La montée des valeurs individualists,” progress, for better or worse. translated unofficially here as “The Rise of Foresight is based on three observations that Individualist Values” (Schweisguth 1995), we remain essential in explaining the philosophy read that implicit in the process. First, the future is a field of freedom, power, and will. It is a territory to [T]he legitimacy of traditionalist values is based on explore, hence the usefulness of monitoring, or an order or hierarchy of things supposedly superior scanning, and anticipating, especially in explor- to individual conscience and which individuals atory foresight. It is a territory for action, hence must respect without being able to question— the usefulness of normative foresight, which whether it be a natural, supernatural, social, moral refers to investigating not possible futures but or any other order. Anchored in tradition, these rather desirable futures and the strategies that values frequently preached the subordination of the individual to the group and to established could be adopted to achieve them. authorities. They also prescribed social roles and behavioural norms unlikely to be questioned either The Future as a Territory to . . . . On the contrary, the principle of individualism consists of subordinating the order of things to the Explore desires, needs, reason or will of individual human At Futuribles, we see a fundamental distinc- beings. Values are not always accepted as tion between the past and future. The past is intangibles but gauged according to their level of the field of what has already been accom- adequacy, of what is considered good for those individuals. The one law of God, of nature, of the plished and, thus, is knowable even if bitter city or of tradition is not legitimate in itself. Within controversies arise among historians chroni- the individual and only within the individual does cling it. On the other hand, the future remains the principle of what is good reside. undone. It is not predetermined and, thus, essentially cannot be known ahead of time. I am not referring to an individual here and Whichever methods are used, today’s or now, and thus excluding others. Instead, I tomorrow’s, no one can ever predict the future mean the individual as a member of a human with certainty. Now, we are not referring to a community, able to forego a portion of his or prediction, prophecy, or even forecast here. her personal and immediate interests for the Instead, at best, we mean an effort at exploring benefit of common goals, of goods considered possible futures to make a decision, a decision beneficial, thus distinct from the sum of indi- made by individuals and social groups or their vidual interests. This includes the long term, representatives acting as best they can not only for example, sustainable development, which to safeguard particular interests but also, if not respects the ecosystem and other people, both primarily, to promote the collective good, that our contemporaries and future generations. is, avoid negative futures and promote desir- Much more could be said on the topic, nota- able futures. bly about the more or less universal nature of However, for actors to possess these powers, this philosophy, how it may or may not square they must commit to monitoring (scanning) and with other beliefs that lend greater importance anticipating. They must explore what could to predestination. More could be written on the occur, that is, what are those “possible futures” issue of determinism and freedom. However, along different time horizons. This function, we probably would reach the conclusion that aptly named exploratory foresight, requires that our lives are neither fully free nor fully we learn to sift daily through the phenomena of a de Jouvenel and Radford 9 purely situational nature and those that we con- All this leads us to the future not as a terri- sider to be true trends, heavy or emerging, and tory to explore but rather as a territory for thus the roots or seeds of possible futures. Note action, a field of power. Power here serves as a that identifying and analyzing heavy and emerg- synonym for opportunity, even if all actors do ing trends as well as signs of discontinuities or face restrictions, some tied to the plurality of breakdowns adequately remain a constant chal- actors, the converging and diverging objec- lenge that may even generate serious contro- tives pursued, the fields in which they operate, versy, not only scientific but also ideological. We and their respective means. Yet this power is need only look at today’s climate-change deniers greater than we usually imagine if those who whose policies threaten the future of the planet. possess it do indeed demonstrate both genuine Let us not forget: the present is but a fleeting will and vision. instant between past and future. Moreover, the Identifying actors, their respective powers, future does not emerge from nothingness. One the values motivating them, and the represen- of the basic tasks prior to any foresight exercise tations that they create, especially the futures is to try to represent the current situation through that they consider unacceptable or desirable— its long-term temporal dynamic and all of its all of this forms an integral part of the foresight dimensions. This full-blown portrait of the pres- process. Conflicts of interest and potential alli- ent situation presents an initial challenge as par- ances must also be taken into account. In fact ticipants have a tendency, based partly on their therein lies a basic difference between fore- field, to overevaluate certain factors, for exam- sight and forecasting methods as the latter ple, technological progress, to the detriment of which presuppose that the actors behave ratio- other factors possibly more difficult to grasp, nally and repetitively. Again, the social sci- for example, the social mastery of technology. ences must absolutely be included in foresight, The second challenge lies in the fact that all of for example, to integrate cultural differences us tend to decode and interpret differently the into our thinking process or to take into account same phenomena according to our own culture, the change in women’s roles in society over ideology, and sensitivity. time or the demographic impact of the renewal Rigor remains key to our way of reflecting of generations. on the future so we have invested seriously in Different views from various participants indicators, what they reveal or hide, as well as about what is desirable and which projects data, for example, quantitative data recorded they want may also surface at this point. by statistics but also qualitative data relative to Indeed, it is worth considering the very con- the so-called “soft variables,” which may be cept of project, etymologically from Latin difficult to discern but often play a determin- projectare, that is, throw in front, into a time ing role in the performance of a country or cor- yet to come. This is essentially the image of a poration, hence their importance in the analysis desirable future, drawing on values, not to say of interplay among actors. dreams, even if some of those futures are deemed unachievable, rather utopic. We should remember that some will serve as vectors for The Future as a Territory for human action and even should act as a “red Action thread” in human or social group decisions and actions, ensuring more or less some meaning What good then is the monitoring, or horizon and coherence. scanning, and exploring function within futur- Let us be clear about this notion of project. In ibles? Definitely not to predict what will hap- public affairs, it could never be the sum of all the pen! Instead, this function serves to alert actors individual interests as expressed at any time but to possible developments before it is too late or rather a collective intention to be pursued. In fact, while they still have some power to influence public authorities normally are the guarantors of the course of events and, otherwise, to con- such projects. It is no minor role for citizens and front successfully the challenges that were their elected representatives, beyond partisan- hopefully anticipated as much as possible. ship, to ensure that the executive does not deviate 10 World Futures Review 00(0) too far from the project with which it was man- as living organisms are involved, for example, dated. Decidedly, this function goes beyond genetically modified organisms (GMOs), a forti- management control. It is certainly not the least ori genetic engineering, and the crazy applica- function of independent organizations to exercise tions imagined by today’s “sorcerer’s apprentice.” the role of counterweight, critic, essentially For instance, regarding the issue of genetic someone making proposals from the citizenry manipulation, we must find a balance between that does not abandon all its powers to govern- the mutual respect needed for any dialogue mental and intergovernmental bodies that all too between civilizations and the promotion of uni- often are uninterested in looking after the long- versal values. This belongs to the workload of term future. Actually, in terms of public interest, futurists. we must take into account all kinds of groups, not to mention actors such as the multinational giants Conclusion such as the GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft) and the BATX (Baidu, Current practitioners must not remain idle, slip- Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi) who now play an ping into some fatalistic stupor; instead, like the unprecedented role yet fall through the cracks of trailblazers in foresight and prospective, they almost all national and international regulation. must rethink how to be and act as true artisans in It is worthwhile remembering one reason a new world that remains to be conceived and behind the founding of the WFSF was to pro- constructed (Masini 2002). This two-prong pro- mote exchanges between East and West at a cess seeking to explore possible futures while time when the Soviet Bloc refuted the idea of also defining what is a desirable and a doable several possible futures. Foresight or anything future remains inherent to foresight as we prac- remotely similar to what we practiced in the tice it. In other words, this kind of foresight West was not allowed on the other side of the serves action. Nevertheless, we must be able to Iron Curtain. Certainly, many nongovernmen- judge our margins of maneuver accurately, forge tal organizations (NGOs), notably the Club of our representation of a desirable and doable Rome, played a ground-breaking role in rais- future, and, last, utilize the ways and means ing consciousness that together we are “one required to achieve that future. world” and that the outrageous exploitation of There are two typical pitfalls that I want to the earth’s limited resources, even by a minor- outline here. The first pitfall is to be satisfied ity of the world’s population, was unsustain- by merely exploring possibilities. This exer- able. Other beliefs were that pollution, cise implies no obligation so the result is usu- including the effects of green house gases, ally a nice report laying out tree formations of seriously compromised our ecosphere’s fragile scenarios of possibilities. The second pitfall is balance. Also worthy of mention is the idea epitomized by the visionary who mistakes that the earth should not be held hostage by the dreams for realities or who has a project but most developed countries that have been the cannot make it happen, cannot let different only ones exploiting for their benefit the plan- actors appropriate the project and, thus, mobi- et’s limited natural resources and generating lize their energy around an adequately shared greater amounts of pollution that threaten the vision. Now, no one is denying that visionaries ecosystem. exist and that some imagination comes into Obviously, given their respective levels of defining projects. However, a general never development, the Chinese, Americans, wins a war against his own soldiers. Actually, Europeans, and Africans have different view- the despotism of certain leaders who claim to points on the above areas. Also, despite the sup- be enlightened more often leads to disaster posed “flat world” (Friedman 2005), different rather than the creation of peace and well- visions of the future oppose one another, given being in populations whose human resources peoples’ different values and beliefs, which are still more needed in development than remain nonetheless respectable. This is the case other resources, whether natural or drawn from in scientific and technological progress as soon scientific and technological progress. de Jouvenel and Radford 11

Decades of monitoring and researching by de Jouvenel, Bertrand. 1972. The Art of Conjecture. various practitioners at Futuribles International London: Basic Books. have taught us that the horizon scanning (early Friedman, Thomas L. 2005. The World Is Flat: A warning system) as mentioned earlier and the Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. New exploration of possible futures are a must for York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Gravier, Jean-François. 1958. Paris et le désert those cherishing freedom. Moreover, this free- français [Paris and the French Desert]. Paris: dom plus the responsibility that we have to éd. Flammarion. care about the long-term future should not be Hetman, Francois. 1969. Le Langage de la prevision under- or overestimated. If we look at different [The Language of Forecasting]. Paris: SEDEIS. countries, cities, or companies operating in the Kahn, Herman. 1960. On Thermonuclear War. same strategic environment, it is quite clear Princeton: Princeton University Press. that their performances differ greatly, and that Masini, Eleonora Barbieri. 2002. “A Vision of depends very much on their capacity to antici- Futures Studies.” Futures 34 (3–4): 249–59. pate what may happen and to design a long- Mendras, Henri. 1967. La Fin des paysans. Paris: term vision collectively. A. Colin. Poquet, Guy (Rapporteur). 1977. Economies of Raw Materials. Paris: Délégation aux économies de Acknowledgment matières premières/Futuribles International. The author would like to thanks Kathryn Radford Schweisguth, Étienne. 1995. “Sciences, La montée des for her nice cooperation. valeurs individualistes.” [The Rise of Individualist Values] Futuribles 277 (200): 131–60. Declaration of Conflicting Interests The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of Author Biographies interest with respect to the research, authorship, Hugues de Jouvenel first studied law and criminol- and/or publication of this article. ogy at the Université de Paris Descartes and at the Sorbonne. He later trained in futures thinking (la pro- Funding spective) at Futuribles in France and at American think The author(s) received no financial support for the tanks such as the Rand Corporation and McHale’s research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. Center for Integrative studies. He then was a research fellow in the United Nations. He returned to France to Note reshape and relaunch Futuribles International in 1973, serving as executive director until 2013. He now 1. For a complete review of the work of Gaston serves as its president. He founded “Futuribles” Berger (1957), see the book The Steps of the Review and stil act as its chief-Editor. A consultant Prospective. with more than forty years of experience in foresight and strategic planning, he has worked with firms, ter- References ritorial groups, and public organizations around the Berger, Gaston. 1957. “Sciences humaines et pre- globe. He is the author of numerous books and articles vision.” [Human Sciences and Forecasting] La on foresight, his fields of interest include geopolitics, Revue des Deux Mondes 1 (3): 16–26. sociodemographic matters, and issues of social protec- Bush, Vannevar. 1945. Science: The Endless tion. He has taught in France and abroad at major Frontier. Washington, DC: United States schools and universities. Government Printing Office. Kathryn Radford is a Montreal translator and lec- de Jouvenel, Bertrand. 1945. Du Pouvoir: histoire turer who holds degrees in translation (master’s) and naturelle de sa croissance [On Power: The comparative literature (doctorate) from the Université Natural History of Its Growth]. Geneva: Les de Montréal. Her main working languages are French, éditions du cheval ailé. English, and Spanish. She regularly teaches translation de Jouvenel, Bertrand. 1968. “Arcadie, essais sur at McGill University. Her alma mater is Victoria le mieux vivre,” [Arcadia, Essays on Better College at the University of Toronto. Other universi- Living] in Technology and Civilization. Paris: ties she attended through various programs include SEDEIS. Aix-en-- II, Paris IV, and de Jouvenel, Bertrand. 1964. L’art de la conjecture Salamanca (Spain). Her current projects include a [The Art of Conjecture]. : Ed du Rocher. hybrid manuscript and a literary translation into Greek.