The Impact of New Judging Criteria on 10-8 Scores in MMA
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Journal of Sports Analytics xx (2021) x–xx 1 DOI 10.3233/JSA-200478 IOS Press 1 The impact of new judging criteria on 10-8 2 scores in MMA ∗ 3 Paul Gift 4 Associate Professor of Economics, Graziadio Business School, Pepperdine University, Malibu, CA, USA 5 Abstract. This paper investigates the impact of changes in judging criteria on 10-8 scores in Zuffa-owned mixed martial 6 arts (MMA) promotions. Utilizing a differences-in-differences framework, the 2017 liberalization of 10-8 scoring criteria 7 in the Unified Rules of MMA is examined across various judge groups. Findings suggest that traveling judges and Nevada 8 judges – those most likely to be at the forefront of the regulatory evolution of the sport – had already liberalized their 10-8 9 scoring one year prior to the effective date of the new criteria. Other judges appear to have effectively implemented the new 10 criteria since January 2017 with 10-8 probabilities on par with traveling and Nevada judges. The effect of an earlier change 11 in judging criteria is also examined in Nevada. Results suggest the numerous and distributed regulatory agencies involved in 12 the sport of MMA were effective in the implementation of new policies for scoring rounds. 13 Keywords: Judging, mixed martial arts (MMA), policy effectiveness, regulation, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), 14 Zuffa 15 1. Introduction rounds. A boxing match can be scheduled in even 34 increments of 4–12 rounds, with the number of 35 16 “[Traveling judges have] figured out the criteria rounds increasing as boxers approach championship 36 17 they’re judging off, caliber. Title fights are generally 12 rounds while 37 18 and no matter where they are or where they go, non-title fights are typically 10 rounds or fewer. 38 19 they’re using that criteria.” MMA bouts, on the other hand, are typically three- 39 20 – John McCarthy, Bellator commentator, round affairs, while title fights are scheduled for five 40 1 21 COMMAND head instructor rounds. 41 In a three-round fight, a judge’s decision to score 42 22 The “10-Point Must” system in mixed martial a round 10-8 instead of 10-9 – doubling the reward 43 23 arts (MMA) is a legacy scoring system from box- for winning the round – can easily be the difference 44 24 ing whereby judges award 10 points to the winner between a fighter earning a 28-28 draw instead of 45 25 of each round and nine points or fewer to the round losing 28-29 when the opponent wins the other two 46 26 loser. First appearing in the Ultimate Fighting Cham- 2 rounds. And the decision to score a 10-8 has histori- 47 27 pionship (UFC) at UFC 21 in July 1999, the 10-Point cally been more difficult in MMA than boxing. While 48 28 Must System would later be codified into the judg- 10-8s in boxing do not require a knockdown, Califor- 49 29 ing criteria of the original Unified Rules of MMA in nia’s judging criteria in 2017 stated, “The knockdown 50 30 2001. 31 While both sports now utilize the 10-Point Must 1 Non-title fights in MMA are sometimes scheduled for five 32 System for scoring, a key distinctionUncorrected between box- rounds. For example, Author all main event matchups Proof in the UFC, whether 33 ing and MMA matches is the number of scheduled title or non-title fights, are scheduled for five rounds unless there are extenuating circumstances such as a short-notice replacement. ∗Corresponding author: Paul Gift, Pepperdine Graziadio Busi- 2 In the 2016-2019 sample period of the present study, 90.4% ness School, 6100 Center Drive, Los Angeles, CA 90045, USA. of bouts were scheduled for three rounds while only 9.6% where E-mail: [email protected]. scheduled for five. ISSN 2215-020X © 2021 – The authors. Published by IOS Press. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License (CC BY-NC 4.0). 2 P. Gift / The impact of new judging criteria on 10-8 scores in MMA 51 should count as one point,” and the Pod Index has At the national level in the United States, the Unified 103 52 found that all three boxing judges unanimously agree Rules of MMA are maintained by the Association of 104 53 on 10-8 rounds 93% of the time (Gift, 2018b). In Boxing Commissions and Combative Sports (ABC), 105 54 MMA, there is no such knockdown rule and judges a non-profit organization composed of member ath- 106 55 unanimously agreed on a 10-8 round only 8.7% of letic commissions. Amendments to these rules are 107 56 the time from 2001–2012, increasing to 26.1% by approved by member commissions at an annual meet- 108 57 2017 (Gift, 2018b). Hence, this paper will examine ing, but the fact remains: The ABC maintains no 109 58 the impact of two changes to the 10-8 scoring criteria regulatory authority over local commissions and can 110 59 in MMA intended to liberalize their usage for “the only recommend policy. Thus, as distributed regula- 111 60 evolution of the sport and the fairness to the fighters” tors, each state or local commission ultimately selects 112 61 (Association of Boxing Commissions and Combative the rules for MMA within its boundaries. 113 62 Sports, 2016, pp. 3). Fortunately, changes to the judging criteria within 114 63 While much of the extant MMA literature has been the Unified Rules have not been controversial, 115 64 devoted to analyses of UFC pay-per-view buyrates unlike other changes such as the definition of a 116 65 (Watanabe, 2012; Tainsky, Salaga, & Santos, 2013; grounded fighter. Thus, the question of interest is: 117 66 Watanabe, 2015; and Reams & Shapiro, 2017), How well has the network of distributed regulators 118 67 researchers have also studied the marginal revenue across the sport of MMA implemented agreed upon 119 68 product of UFC fighters (Gift, 2020) and examined changes to the scoring criteria 10-8 rounds? Utilizing 120 69 the impact of fight night bonuses (Gift, 2019a) and a non-experimental difference-in-differences frame- 121 70 cage size (Gift, 2019b) on various aspects of fighter work across time and local jurisdictions, I find that 122 71 performance. traveling and Nevada judges – those most likely to be 123 72 The two papers most closely related to the present at the forefront of the regulatory evolution of the sport 124 73 study are Collier, Johnson, and Ruggiero (2012) and – had already liberalized their 10-8 scoring prior to 125 74 Gift (2018a). Both studies analyzed the performance the most recent change in January 2017. However, 126 75 determinants of MMA judging decisions with Col- other judges quickly caught up in 2017 and main- 127 76 lier et al. using aggregate bout statistics and the final tained 10-8 probabilities on par with traveling and 128 77 bout outcome and Gift examining the round-by-round Nevada judges. Additionally, over a longer time hori- 129 78 scoring decisions of judges in “close margin” 10- zon, multiple efforts to liberalize 10-8 scoring appear 130 79 9 rounds. Collier et. al also tested for the impact to have been effective in Nevada. These findings can 131 80 of non-performance measures (age and height) and have value not only to the athletic commissions who 132 81 found no statistical effect. Gift’s analysis found that oversee the judges, but also to the fighters, coaches, 133 82 MMA judges tend to show bias towards larger betting promoters, and even fans seeking more “fairness to 134 83 favorites, fighters with an insurmountable lead, and the fighters.” 135 84 the fighter who won the previous round. In contrast to 85 Collier et al. and Gift, the judging decision of interest 86 in the present study is not who wins or loses a bout or 2. MMA judging criteria 136 87 round, but rather the decision to award a 10-8 score 88 instead of 10-9 when the round-winning fighter is not The UFC, presently the world’s largest MMA pro- 137 89 in dispute. moter, held its first event on November 12, 1993. 138 90 In MMA, judges do not work for individual pro- Initially described as “no holds barred” fighting, there 139 91 moters such as the UFC or Bellator. Instead they were only two rules – no biting and no eye gouging 140 92 work for state and local athletic commissions and – and fights could only end by a tapout or corner 141 93 their workload throughout a year and requirements stoppage. The first appearance of judges and deci- 142 94 for training can vary from commission to commis- sion finishes occurred at UFC 7.5 in December 1995. 143 95 sion. Contrary to more traditional sports, MMA is Using the scoring categories of aggressiveness, best 144 96 a sport of regulatory fiefdoms. Each athletic com- strikes, and grappling techniques, a panel of three 145 97 mission defines the ruleset for regulatedUncorrected MMA bouts judges evaluated Author the fight as a whole,Proof revealing win- 146 98 within its jurisdiction. When no regulatory agency ners on paddles which would then be shown to the 147 99 exists, promoters will self-regulate or contract with a film crew and the audience. 148 100 regulatory body such as the Mohegan Department of Shortly after Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta bought the 149 101 Athletic Regulation, which Bellator utilizes when it UFC in January 2001, the Unified Rules of MMA 150 102 travels internationally to an unregulated jurisdiction.