Basketball Strategy Projected-The Oklahoma City Thunder
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Basketball Strategy Projected-The Oklahoma City Thunder David Jacober-9/17/17 ABSTRACT Enclosed is an analysis of the 2017 Offseason activity of the Oklahoma City Thunder. I examine the Thunder’s competitive advantages, both with their roster and their market. OKC’s projected liabilities, the future of the cap, and how it would impact the Thunder’s long-term financial viability. Finally, I try to outline a projected strategy for the Thunder moving forward through 2018. Table of Contents Macro Summer Review-Oklahoma City Thunder ........................................................................ 2 Cap Projections, the Thunder’s looming Tax Bill, Their Assets and Their Completive Advantages................................................................................................................................................. 5 The Thunder’s looming Tax Bill ...................................................................................................................... 6 OKC’s Competitive Advantages/Disadvantages ........................................................................................ 7 Recommended Offseason Strategic Targets .................................................................................. 8 2017 Draft Strategy: ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Potential Low cost Options at Guard with a little upside? ................................................................. 10 Trading for Undervalued Players ................................................................................................................ 10 Riding It Out With Westbrook ...................................................................................................................... 11 Taking Carmelo’s Temperature ................................................................................................................... 12 Strategy Objectives Moving Forward ............................................................................................. 12 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................ 14 Table Of Figures Table 1 OKC Additions this summer .................................................................................................................................... 3 Table 2 OFF-EFF ALL Time Leaders ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Table 3 Golden State vs. +/- PP100 (5) Worst ................................................................................................................. 4 Table 4 Thunder Tax Table ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 Table 5 Singler’s Stretched Contract ................................................................................................................................. 10 Table 6 Undervalued Players to Monitor ........................................................................................................................ 11 Table 7 Highest USG Players OFF Court Per 100 Possessions ............................................................................... 11 Table 8 OKC Lineup Projections .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 1 Cap Growth vs. Percent Increase ......................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 2 Free Agent Money Spent: Trailing 4 Seasons ................................................................................................. 5 Figure 3 Thunder Projected Cap Vs. League Salary Cap Growth at 3.5% ............................................................ 6 2 Macro Summer Review-Oklahoma City Thunder The Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) had one of the league’s most intriguing offseasons from a player acquisition standpoint. The Thunder saw their roster fundamentally change in response to their 2017 first round loss (4-1) to the Houston Rockets. OKC made one of the summer’s biggish splashes with the addition of one of the league’s better two-way wings, Paul George (11th in ESPN.com’s Real Plus/Minus 2.58). The trade could be viewed as a calculated gamble in exchanging young talent for a player whom could depart in free agency next season by exercising his 2018 Player Option. Still, unlike most teams, OKC has proven they are willing to take calculated risks. However, unlike the James Harden trade several years ago, (which I would argue fits with a more sustainable value transaction), some could view this as more of a situational value transaction should George and Russell Westbrook depart next summer. Below is a list of OKC’s roster additions. Player Age Position Acquired VIA Paul George 27 3/2/SB-4 (Trade) Patrick Patterson 28 4/SB-5 UFA (2+1) TPMLE Terrence Ferguson 19 2/3 Draft (21th overall) Raymond Felton 33 1 UFA (10+ VET MIN) Daniel Hamilton 22 3/2 Two-way contract Table 1 OKC Additions this summer The only quasi-substantial loss from the Thunder’s perspective was Taj Gibson whom departed via unrestricted free agency (UFA) to the Minnesota Timberwolves on a two-year $28 million deal. Last season, even despite a herculean effort by the Thunder’s and league’s Most Valuable Player Russell Westbrook, offensively Oklahoma City (as constructed) could not go tit-for-tat offensively with the high powered offenses in the Western Conference, namely the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets. The Warriors in specific are one of the most prolific offensive teams the league has ever seen. The 2016-17 Warriors ended up tying the record for best Offenses per 100 possessions (115.6) in the three-point area according to basketball-references.com’s database. The previous season, the 2015-16 Warriors ended up finishing 14th of all time (114.5) during the same era. Year Team OFF-EFF All Time Rank 2016-17 GSW 115.6 Tied 1st 2016-17 HOU 114.7 10th 2015-16 GSW 114.5 14th Table 2 OFF-EFF ALL Time Leaders The Rockets--Offensively they aren’t slouches either. Last year, the Rockets put together the 10th best season in the three-point area from an OFF EFF standpoint (114.7). Houston also made a splash this season in adding All-Star point guard Chris Paul, whom not only is one of the better two way point guards (led N.B.A. point guards in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, and third in PER for players playing over 30 min/g), but he will also add some intangible elements to the Rockets team fabric. Golden State lost a total of 15 games last regular season and only ONE game all throughout the playoffs. They are returning with much of their core group, which will make this year’s Warriors team just has tough to beat. Most top-heavy teams like Golden State and now Houston are usually weak in their bench because their resources are tied up in their starters. This isn’t the case with Golden State. Last season, they finished with the league’s second best scoring bench from a net rating standpoint (7.4). 3 Still, teams trying to unseat the Golden State as champions would perhaps be wise to build their team in an antithetical manner. Not trying to outscore the G.S. or Houston, but rather slow it down with better defense. In the 2016-17 regular season from a +/- per 100 possessions standpoint, the teams that gave G.S. the most trouble were; Memphis, Boston, San Antonio, and Denver as demonstrated in chart below. Team +/- Per 100 Possessions #Games SAS -13.3 3 MEM -0.8 4 BOS +1.6 2 DEN +3.2 3 MIA +4.4 2 Table 3 Golden State vs. +/- PP100 (5) Worst As shown above, only the Spurs really gave the Warriors any trouble last regular season. In the postseason, no one really gave G.S. any trouble. According to nbaminers.com’s database, only two of G.S.’s playoff games were decided by five points or less. What I believe is important to take away are the types of teams that give the Warriors relative difficulty. Long, defensive minded teams, who have the personnel to switch and extend out, can slow Golden State’s elite ball- movement, and force them into tougher more contested shots. For a further example, the Thunder need only look to their own roster from two seasons ago (2016), in their playoff series against the Warriors. Long, athletic players like Westbrook, Roberson, Durant, Ibaka, Adams, and even Dion Waiters gave Golden State immense trouble offensively. Therefore, finding and utilizing moveable, interchangeable pieces (mostly on the wings and frontcourt) that can ultimately switch in pick action, and on off-ball screens may be a teams first step in possibly upsetting the current champions. With that perspective, perhaps the Thunder did the best job of any team this summer at creating real identity, and a converse approach to competing in the Western Conference. The OKC coaching staff now has a bevy of potential line-ups to deploy all season; specifically with the addition of Patrick Patterson (age 28, Stretch 4 small-ball 5) from Toronto. For instance, OKC could look to use Patterson in a somewhat similar manner as the Spurs deployed Boris Diaw in the 2014 NBA Finals against the Miami Heat (another dominate small-ball team). While Patterson isn’t the passer or playmaker Diaw is, in four seasons in Toronto the Raptors