Vanuatu Energy Demand Projections: Business As Usual Scenario Copyright © 2016
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Cover Image © Solar PV Array, Department of Energy, Ministry of Climate Change, Vanuatu
Vanuatu Energy Demand Projections: Business As Usual Scenario Table of Contents
LIST OF FIGURES...... III LIST OF TABLES...... IV ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS...... V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...... VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... 1
1. INTRODUCTION...... 3
2. METHODOLOGY AND DATA AVAILABILITY...... 3
3. PETROLEUM BAU PROJECTIONS...... 7 3.1 PETROLEUM FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION 7 3.1.1 Access to Grid Electricity and Demand 7 3.1.2 Renewable Energy 7 3.1.3 Projected Fuel Demand for Electricity Generation 9 3.1.4 Kerosene for Lighting 11
3.2 PETROLEUM FOR TRANSPORTATION 12 3.2.1 Land Vehicles 12 3.2.2 Marine Transportation 14 3.2.3 Air Travel 14 3.2.4 Overall Projected Fuel Consumption for Transportation 16
3.3 PETROLEUM FOR COOKING 16
3.4 OTHER PETROLEUM USAGE 17
3.5 NATIONAL PETROLEUM CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS UNDER THE BAU SCENARIO 17
3.6 IMPACT OF THE NON-ACHIEVEMENT OF NERM 2013–2020 TARGETS 19
4. BIOMASS BAU PROJECTIONS...... 20 4.1 SECTORAL ASSUMPTIONS AND BAU PROJECTIONS 20
4.2 NATIONAL BIOMASS CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS UNDER THE BAU SCENARIO 20
5. ELECTRICITY BAU PROJECTIONS...... 21 5.1 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ASSUMPTIONS AND BAU PROJECTIONS 21 5.1.1 Projected Number of Households 21 5.1.2 Households Electrified 25 5.1.3 Distribution of Existing and New Customers 26 5.1.4 Average Residential Electricity Consumption 26 5.1.5 Projected Electricity Sales for the Residential Sector 29
5.2 COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL SECTOR ASSUMPTIONS AND BAU PROJECTIONS 30 5.2.1 Number of Commercial and Industrial Customers 30 5.2.2 Average Commercial and Industrial Electricity Consumption 32 5.2.3 Projected Electricity Sales in the Commercial and Industrial Sector 32
5.3 PUBLIC SECTOR AND STREET LIGHTING ASSUMPTIONS AND BAU PROJECTIONS 32 5.3.1 Number of Public Sector Customers 33 5.3.2 Average Public Sector Electricity Consumption 34 5.3.3 Projected Electricity Sales for the Public Sector 34
I 5.3.4 Assumptions Regarding Street Lights 35 5.3.5 Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights 36 5.3.6 Projection of Street Lights’ Total Electricity Consumption 37 5.3.7 Projected Electricity Sales for the Public Sector and Street Lighting 38 5.4 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS UNDER THE BAU SCENARIO 38
5.5 COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS OF ELECTRICITY PROJECTIONS UNDER DIFFERENT BAU SCENARIOS 40 5.5.1 PEEP2 42 5.5.2 NERM 42 5.5.3 BAU Scenario and GDP Projections Comparison 44
5.6 IMPACT OF THE NON-ACHIEVEMENT OF NERM 2013–2020 TARGETS 44
REFERENCES...... 47 APPENDIX - ANALYSIS OF UNELCO AND VUI TECHNICAL REPORTS OF 2013...... 50
II List of Figures
Figure 1. Projection of total energy consumption in Vanuatu...... 2 Figure 2. Projection of national electricity consumption...... 3 Figure 3. Projection of national electricity consumption...... 7 Figure 4: Projection of electricity generation mix...... 8 Figure 5. Projection of petroleum consumption for electricity generation...... 11 Figure 6. Projection of kerosene consumption for lighting...... 11 Figure 7. Number of land vehicles...... 13 Figure 8. Newly registered vehicle mix...... 13 Figure 9. Petroleum consumption for land transportation, by end-user sector...... 14 Figure 10. Petroleum consumption for sea transportation, by end-user sector...... 15 Figure 11. Petroleum consumption for air transportation, by end-user sector...... 15 Figure 12. Petroleum consumption for the transportation sector...... 15 Figure 13. LPG consumption, by end-user sector...... 16 Figure 14. Other petroleum usage, by end-user sector...... 16 Figure 15. Past trends and BAU projections for petroleum consumption, by type of functional end use...... 17 Figure 16. Contribution in overall petroleum consumption, by end-user sector...... 18 Figure 17. Estimated national biomass consumption in urban and rural areas...... 20 Figure 18. Evolution of the number of households electrified...... 26 Figure 19. Average annual electricity consumption of households...... 29 Figure 20. Evolution of total residential electricity consumption...... 30 Figure 21. Number of commercial and industrial customers...... 31 Figure 22. Average annual electricity consumption of the commercial and industrial sector...... 31 Figure 23. Projected electricity sales in the commercial and industrial sector...... 32 Figure 24. Per capita annual electricity consumption for the public sector...... 34 Figure 25. Projected public sector electricity sales...... 34 Figure 26. Average electricity consumption of street lights...... 37 Figure 27. Electricity consumption of street lights...... 37 Figure 28. Electricity consumption of public sector consumers and street lights...... 38 Figure 29. Projection of national electricity consumption, by end-user sector...... 39 Figure 30. Projected share of national electricity consumption, by end-user sector...... 39 Figure 31. BAU scenarios of GGGI, PEEP2, NERM and utilities...... 40 Figure 32. Electricity consumption under BAU scenarios and GDP projections...... 44 Figure 33. Distribution of the total number of electricity customers, by end-user sector...... 50 Figure 34. Evolution of per capita electricity consumption in the Pacific Island countries...... 50 Figure 35. Electricity sales distribution, by end-user sector in 2009–2013...... 51 Figure 36. Number of residential customers by concession, 2009–2013...... 52 Figure 37. Geographical distribution of electricity customers from the residential sector...... 52 Figure 38. Average annual consumption of the residential sector by concession, 2009–2013...... 53 Figure 39. Geographical distribution of residential electricity sales in 2013...... 54 Figure 40. Total electricity consumption in the residential sector by concession, 2009-2013...... 54 Figure 41. Number of commercial and industrial customers by concession, 2009–2013...... 59 Figure 42. Geographical distribution of electricity customers from the commercial and industrial sector...... 56 Figure 43. Average annual consumption of the commercial and industrial sector by concession, 2009–2013...... 57 Figure 44. Geographical distribution of commercial and industrial electricity sales in 2013...... 57 Figure 45. Commercial and industrial sales by concession, 2009-2013...... 58 Figure 46. Number of of public sector customers by concession, 2009–2013...... 60 Figure 47. Geographical distribution of electricity customers from the public sector...... 61 Figure 48. Average annual consumption of the public sector by concession, 2009–2013...... 61 Figure 49. Geographical distribution of public sector electricity sales in 2013...... 62 Figure 50. Public sector electricity sales by concession, 2009–2013...... 62
III List of Tables
Table 1. Exchange rate...... V Table 2. Unit conversion table...... V Table 3. Projected national electricity consumption and associated petroleum consumption for generation...... 10 Table 4. Actual and projected number of newly registered land vehicles...... 12 Table 5. Actual and projected number of land vehicles in use (registered and non-registered)...... 12 Table 6. Past trends and BAU projections for petroleum products demand...... 18 Table 7. Past and projected petroleum consumption, by end-user sector...... 18 Table 8. Petroleum growth projections from various sources...... 19 Table 9. Projected number of households...... 21 Table 10. Electricity access: Baseline and roadmap targets...... 22 Table 11. Electricity access in 2015...... 23 Table 12. Ongoing electrification projects...... 24 Table 13. Electrification rates in Vanuatu...... 25 Table 14. Number of electrified households...... 25 Table 15. Number of existing and new customers...... 27 Table 16. CAGRs of household electricity consumption per capita in different areas...... 27 Table 17. Level of equipment of micro-grid customers...... 28 Table 18. Average annual electricity consumption in rural and urban households...... 28 Table 19. Projected electricity sales...... 29 Table 20. CAGRs of customer numbers in the commercial and industrial sector...... 30 Table 21. Average annual electricity consumption of the commercial and industrial sector...... 31 Table 22. CAGRs and growth rates of the number of public sector customers...... 33 Table 23. Projections of public sector customer volume...... 33 Table 24. CAGRs of average annual electricity consumption in the public sector...... 33 Table 25. Street lighting network in Vanuatu, 2009...... 35 Table 26. Street light operating hours in UNELCO's concessions...... 35 Table 27. Street lighting network in Vanuatu before March 2014...... 35 Table 28. Street lighting network in Vanuatu in 2015...... 36 Table 29. CAGRs of the number of street lights in different areas...... 36 Table 30. CAGRs and annual growth rates of average annual consumption of street lights...... 37 Table 31. National electricity consumption...... 38 Table 32. Comparison between the NERM 2013–2020 projections for the growth in the number of residential clients and the actual growth reflected by utility data...... 43 Table 33. Comparison between the NERM 2013–2020 projections for the growth in demand and the actual growth reflected by utility data...... 43 Table 34. CAGRs of average electricity consumption by end-user sector, 2009-2013...... 51 Table 35. National electricity consumption...... 51 Table 36. CAGRs of residential customers by concession, 2009–2013...... 52 Table 37. CAGRs of residential per capita consumption and residential customer number...... 53 Table 38. CAGRs of residential electricity sales...... 54 Table 39. CAGRs of commercial and industrial electricity sales...... 58 Table 40. CAGRs of public sector customers by concession, 2009–2013...... 60 Table 41. CAGRs of public sector electricity sales...... 62
IV Abbreviations and Acronyms
AAGR Average Annual Growth Rate AVGAS Aviation Gasoline BAU Business as Usual CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate CFL Compact Florescent Lamp DoE Department of Energy (Vanuatu) GDP Gross Domestic Product GoV Government of Vanuatu GPOBA Global Partnership on Output Based Aid HIES Household Income and Expenditure Survey IMF International Monetary Fund INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency JETA1 Jet Fuel kWh Kilowatt Hour L Liters LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MW Megawatt MWh Megawatt-Hours NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action NERM National Energy Roadmap PEEP Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Asian Development Bank) PV Photovoltaic SHS Solar Home Systems SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community SPREP Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme SREP Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Low Income Countries TOE Tons of Oil Equivalent UNELCO Union Electrique du Vanuatu Limited URA Utilities Regulatory Authority USD United States Dollar VNSO Vanuatu National Statistics Office VREP Vanuatu Rural Electrification Project VUI Vanuatu Utilities and Infrastructure Limited VUV Vanuatu Vatu W Watt
Exchange Rate Local currency to United States Dollar (USD) in November 20151
Table 1. Exchange rate Country Local Currency USD Vanuatu Vatu (VUV) 0.0089
Unit Conversion Table
Table 2. Unit conversion table Toe Grid Electricity (kWh) LPG (L) Diesel (L) Wood 20% (tons) Toe 1 11,630 1,744 1,151 2.85
1 http://www.exchangerate.com.
V Acknowledgements
The Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and the project team would like to express their gratitude to the Government of Vanuatu, and in particular, the Ministry of Climate Change Adaptation, Meteorology, Geo-Hazards, Environment and Energy. GGGI would like to thank Jesse Benjamin, Director General of the Ministry for his strong support in the preparation of this assessment, and Antony Garae, Director of the Department of Energy, Leo Moli, Energy Security Adviser and Chris Simelum, Off-Grid Planning Officer and all the staff at the Department of Energy for their assistance in gathering the required data.
This report was prepared under the guidance and leadership of Mahua Acharya, Assistant Director-General of the Investment and Policy Solutions Division at GGGI. The report was prepared by Dereje Senshaw, Senior Energy Specialist (GGGI) and Philippe Baudez (Individual Consultant), with inputs from Katerina Syngellakis, Country Representative for Fiji and Vanuatu (GGGI), Paul Kaun, Green Growth Specialist (GGGI), Peter Johnston, (Individual Consultant), and Benjamin Sims, Country Portfolio Officer (GGGI). The final draft benefited from valuable editorial and design support by Christine Apikul (Individual Consultant) and Su-Jeung Hong (GGGI).
We also wish to acknowledge with much appreciation the contribution of the following individuals that reviewed and provided valuable comments to this report:
• Myung Kyoon Lee, Former Director, Knowledge Solutions, GGGI • Kamlesh Khelawan, Senior Energy Specialist, World Bank • Solomone Fifita, Deputy Director Energy, Secretariat of the Pacific Community • Koin Etuati, Energy Policy Officer, Secretariat of the Pacific Community • Frank Vukikomoala, Energy Database Officer, Secretariat of the Pacific Communit
VI VII Executive Summary
The Council of Ministers of Vanuatu endorsed the Vanuatu National Energy Roadmap (NERM) in 2013 as the overarching policy framework for developing Vanuatu’s energy sector. The Government of Vanuatu (GoV) undertook the first revision of the NERM between October 2015 and May 2016 to update the roadmap’s goals and targets. Recognizing the importance of energy efficiency initiatives, and their centrality to meeting the GoV’s vision for the energy sector, energy efficiency was a key element in the revision of the NERM, alongside the need to increase implementation of renewable energy technologies.
Within this framework, the Vanuatu Energy Demand Projections: Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario report was prepared to give an analysis of energy efficiency in the key sectors of Vanuatu. The BAU report estimates energy consumption for key sectors in Vanuatu between 2015 and 2030 under a BAU scenario in order to establish a baseline and enable identification of the impacts of activities recommended in the NERM.
The objectives of this report are to:
• Collect up-to-date data on energy consumption by end use; • Identify energy usage data gaps; • Analyze baseline data; • Review the status of ongoing, planned and/or financed energy projects; • Based on relevant assumptions, develop models and estimate energy demand projections between 2015 and 2030 for the three main forms of energy (petroleum, biomass and electricity); and • Analyze the potential impacts of non-achievement of the NERM 2013–2020 targets on projected energy consumption.
The BAU for each energy form (petroleum, biomass and electricity) was established taking into consideration the expected behavior and demand from the main end-user groups—the residential sector, public sector and private sector (commercial and industrial). This approach is useful to: (1) better understand the contribution from each end-user segment; (2) estimate the potential savings for an intervention targeting only one end-user group; and (3) establish roles and responsibilities for implementation.
Overall, energy consumption in Vanuatu is expected to double in the coming 15 years. Commercially-produced energy, i.e., petroleum and electricity, is projected to represent a combined 56% of the consumption growth; while biomass, most of which is not traded in the economy, makes up the balance (see Figure 1). Although the increase in commercial energy consumption will drive and be driven by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the demand for biomass for cooking and drying crops, which is expected to increase by 78% during the same 15-year period, will potentially increase pressure on limited natural resources.
1 Figure 1. Projection of total energy consumption in Vanuatu
Figure 1. Projection of total energy consumption in Vanuatu Livelihoods will improve with increased rural electrification; and health, education and transport services will benefitLivelihoods from improved will improveenergy access. with increased However, rural dependence electrification; on imported and health, petroleum education products and transport is expected to increaseservices in absolute will benefit(volume) from terms improved between energy 2015 access. and 2030. However, Greenhouse dependence gas emissions, on imported as well petroleum as emissions of other primaryproducts pollutants is expected from to the increase combustion in absolute of petroleum (volume) products terms betw andeen biomass, 2015 and will 2030continue. Greenhouse to increase gas over this period.emissions, as well as emissions of other primary pollutants from the combustion of petroleum products and biomass, will continue to increase over this period. Petroleum product consumption is expected to increase by about half during the period 2015 to 2030. Land vehicles will continuePetroleum to be productthe dominant consumption contributor is expected with an to increasing increase shareby about from half 50% during of petroleum the period fuel 2015 use to in 2030.2010 to 71% Landin 2030. vehicles This projected will continue trend to forbe theland dominant transport contributor is based on with the growing an increasing number share of registered from 50% vehicles,of expectedpetroleum development fuel use of road in 2010 infrastructure, to 71% in 2030. and greater This projected need for trend ground for transportationland transport isfor based commercial on the and industrialgrowing activities. number The ofsecond regis tereddriver vehicles, for petroleum expected consumption development is air of transport road infrastructure with an expected, and greater 10% increase need for ground transportation for commercial and industrial activities. The second driver for petroleum by 2030. Fuel consumption for international flights is not considered in this BAU projection. Petroleum product consumption is air transport with an expected 10% increase by 2030. Fuel consumption for international consumption related to cooking, sea transport and other uses are expected to continue to grow, but the share in flights is not considered in this BAU projection. Petroleum product consumption related to cooking, sea the overalltransport volume and should other stagnate uses are at expected around 5% to continuefor each usage.to grow The, but quantity the share of kerosenein the overall for lighting volume willshould continue to decrease,stagnate and atbe around replaced 5% over for eachtime usageby grid. The electricity quantity or of stand-alone kerosene for renewable lighting willenergy continue systems. to decrease Assuming, that NERM goalsand be for replaced use of renewables over time by are grid met, electricity the higher or usagestand- ofalone renewable renewable energy energy in grid systems. electricity Assuming gener ationthat and rural electrificationNERM goals forthrough use of renewable renewables energy are met, projects the higher will meanusage a ofreduction renewable of imported energy in fuel grid volume electricity for electricity from 29%generation in 2010 toand 6% rural in 2030. electrification through renewable energy projects will mean a reduction of imported fuel volume for electricity from 29% in 2010 to 6% in 2030. If no measures are taken to manage growth, the demand for biomass energy will almost double in the next 15 years, drivenIf no measures by the need are of taken rural to populations manage growth, for cooking the demand and crop for drying. biomass This en ergycould will potentially almost double increase in thelocalized deforestationnext 15 currently years, driven experienced by the need in Vanuatu. of rural Biomasspopulati onssources for cooking in Vanuatu and arecrop 50% drying. mixed This fuelwood could potentially (5% moisture content)increase and 50% localized coconut deforestation residues (air drycurrently – 0% moisture experienced content). in Vanuatu. These typesBiomass of biomass sources arein Vanuatu locally a arevailable 50% mixed fuelwood (5% moisture content) and 50% coconut residues (air dry – 0% moisture content). These to the rural population at no, or very low cost. Biomass-based charcoal is also used but no data is available on types of biomass are locally available to the rural population at no, or very low cost. Biomass-based quantities. With an annual increase between 3% and 4%, the required volume of fuelwood and coconut residues charcoal is also used but no data is available on quantities. With an annual increase between 3% and 4%, being burntthe required aligns with volume the assumptions of fuelwood usedand coconut for population residues and being GDP burnt growth, aligns respectively with the assumptions 3.1% and 3.6%. used for population and GDP growth, respectively 3.1% and 3.6%. Overall, electricity consumption could more than double between 2015 and 2030. This growth is expected to be driven initiallyOverall by, electricity the commercial consumption and industrial could more sector, tha followedn double betweenby residential 2015 uptake and 2030. (see This Figure growth 2). is expected to be driven initially by the commercial and industrial sector, followed by residential uptake (see Figure 2).
10 2 Figure 2. Projection of national electricity consumption
Year
This analysis assumes a 41% electrification rate for off-grid households by 2020 via grid-extension and micro-grids, which corresponds to the pipeline of projects with confirmed financing up to 2020.2 Progressively, the share of residential consumption will increase, from an initial 30% in 2010 to 50% of total electricity consumption in 2030, pushed first by the increase in the electrification rate, and then by a progressive increase in the number and size of household electrical appliances. The electrification rate targets in the NERM 2013–2020 are ambitious. Currently, the number of projects planned and financed up to 2020 will only be able to partially achieve the set targets. New projects will have to be identified and funded if the targets are to be fully met by 2020. Even– if the NERM electrification targets are only partially achieved, however, there will be some impact on the overall projected electricity consumption. Overall, only achieving 50% household electrification would represent a decrease of 14% of the BAU projection for total electricity consumption. In this scenario, the total electricity consumption would still increase by approximately 110% between 2015 and 2030, compared to an increase of approximately 180% under the scenario where the NERM electrification targets are fully achieved. If Vanuatu does not achieve the targets for renewable electricity generation set in the NERM or the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, petroleum consumption projections will increase compared to the BAU scenario mentioned above. In the case where only two-thirds of the targets are achieved (i.e., 26.6% renewable energy in 2015,3 40% in 2020 and 60% in 2030), the result would be an increase by 90% in the BAU projection of cumulative petroleum consumption for electricity generation by 2030. In summary, the annual petroleum consumption for electricity would increase by 24% between 2015 and 2030, instead of the 62% decrease currently projected under the BA U.
2 The pipeline of projects with confirmed financing is based on the vemberNo 2015 rural electrification projects list from the DoE. 3 The electricity generation from renewables was reported to be 29% at the end of 2015 (communication with DoE).
3
11 24 1. Introduction The Council of Ministers of Vanuatu endorsed the useful to: (1) better understand the contribution from Vanuatu National Energy Roadmap (NERM) in 2013 each end-user segment; (2) estimate the potential as the overarching policy framework for developing savings from an intervention targeting only one end- Vanuatu’s energy sector. The Government of Vanuatu user group; and (3) establish roles and responsibilities (GoV) undertook the first revision of the NERM between for implementation. October 2015 and May 2016 to update its goals and targets, based on a review and analysis of the achieved The methodology adopted to develop projections for results to date, resources available and potential revised energy demand under the BAU scenario comprised a priorities. spreadsheet tool to input and analyze historical energy data, the development of relevant assumptions based on Recognizing the importance of energy efficiency evidence gathered, and the development of models to initiatives, and their centrality to meeting the GoV’s validate the assumptions and calculate differing energy vision for the energy sector, the examination of options demands. to improve energy efficiency was a key element in the revision of the NERM, alongside the need to increase A reasonably accurate overview of energy consumption implementation of renewable energy technologies. in Vanuatu to date has been obtained by analyzing historical data on biomass, petroleum and electricity Within this framework, the Vanuatu Energy Demand usage in the country. However, in the case of biomass, Projections: Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario report there was very little up-to-date data available and is intended to estimate energy consumption for key this limited the accuracy of the biomass analysis. As sectors in Vanuatu between 2015 and 2030 under a biomass is expected to continue to meet at least half BAU scenario. This analysis will in turn serve as a basis of the gross national energy demand through to 2030, for: (1) the establishment of energy efficiency targets; further research (for example, household and farm (2) development of alternative energy efficiency biomass usage surveys) should be conducted to measure scenarios; and (3) development of effective energy biomass consumption and develop more precise BAU efficiency policies, strategies and action plans. projections. Biomass survey results available for the present BAU demand study dated back to the 1980s (no The objectives of this report are to: new surveys were carried out as part of this report). Key stakeholders for data collection for the biomass sector • Collect up-to-date data on energy consumption by would be the Vanuatu National Statistics Office (VNSO), end-use; the Department of Energy (DoE), the Department of • Identify energy usage data gaps; Agriculture and the Department of Forestry, amongst • Analyze baseline data; others. • Review the status of on-going, planned and/or financed energy projects; Accurate petroleum data was partially available for • Based on relevant assumptions, develop models this report. The imported volume for each petroleum and estimate energy demand projections between product was obtained from the Department of Customs 2015 and 2030 for the three main forms of energy and Inland Revenue. These figures were verified (petroleum, biomass and electricity); and with sales figures from local companies supplying • Analyze the potential impacts of non-achievement and distributing petroleum products—Origin Energy of the NERM 2013 – 2020 on projected energy for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), and Société des consumption. Services Pétroliers, also known as Pacific Petroleum, for all other petroleum products. The nature of 2. Methodology and Data Availability data available for petroleum products did not allow accurate categorization of petroleum usage within The BAU scenario describes the expected changes the same “energy user” sectors as electricity usage in Vanuatu’s energy consumption in the absence of (i.e., residential, public sector, and commercial and any specific measures taken. This scenario therefore industrial). In addition, although petroleum product assumes a continuation of the existing policy framework distributors and different government bodies (VNSO, and the most likely future trends in energy consumption, Utilities Regulatory Authority (URA) and Customs) energy efficiency and energy project development. provided some information on petroleum consumption from a product or functional perspective, detailed data The BAU for each energy form (petroleum, biomass and for energy usage in the transport sector was scarce, and electricity) was established taking into consideration the further research on energy usage in the transport sector expected behavior and demand from the main end-user is recommended. groups—the residential sector, public sector and private sector (commercial and industrial). This approach is
5 Finally, there was good coverage of electricity These end-user groups are important, as they will generation and consumption data provided by the determine the structure of the BAU scenarios, as well as URA, which is responsible for the economic regulation inform future energy efficiency policies, strategies and of water and electricity in the concession areas of targets. Vanuatu. The utility companies operating in the four concessions, i.e., UNELCO ( in Port Vila, Lakatoro and The BAU projections are based on market development Lenakel) and VUI ( in Luganville) kept detailed records and end-user consumption profile assumptions. Two of the operation of their power plants and distribution main factors influence the overall national energy networks. However, newly established rural mini- and consumption: micro-grids lacked verifiable information. 1. A growing population at an estimated rate of 2.3% In order to estimate BAU scenarios for the electricity per year based on the 2009 national census;6 and sector, an analysis of historical electricity consumption 2. A developing economy with a gross domestic patterns was carried out at both the national and product (GDP) which, according to the International provincial levels. The main indicators examined were Monetary Fund (IMF), grew at an average annual the number of clients, their average annual consumption growth rate (AAGR) of 1.8% between 2010 and and their total consumption. BAU projections were 2014. Although GDP decreased by 2% in 2015 due then developed based on assumptions, which were to Cyclone Pam, it is expected to grow again at an made through observation of major trends, and specific AAGR of 3.6% between 2016 and 2020. 7 province or end-user group behavior. Current and planned projects in the electricity sector were also The evolution of specific demand per end-user is also taken into account. reflected in the BAU projections. The NERM target to provide electricity access to all rural households would In analyzing electricity consumption reports for translate into increased electricity consumption per the concession areas, tariff categories of technical capita in rural areas, while electricity consumption per reports from 2013 for both the Union Electrique du capita in urban areas is also expected to increase and Vanuatu Limited (UNELCO) and Vanuatu Utilities and remain higher than in rural areas. Infrastructure Limited (VUI) were aggregated into three end-user groups (residential, public sector, and commercial and industrial) as follows:
UNELCO VUI4 Residential Residential
Private Domestic Private Domestic Private Prepaid Private Prepaid Private Others Private Others
Public Sector Public Sector Admin Other Admin Other Admin High Voltage Admin High Voltage Admin Street Lighting Admin Street Lighting Internal Not Invoiced Not Invoiced Commercial & Industrial Commercial & Industrial
Private High Voltage Private High Voltage Private Patent Private Patent Internal (Water & Energy Utility)5
4 With the transition in 2011 of the Luganville concession from UNELCO to VUI, it is assumed that both the number of Admin Other and Admin High Voltage remained constant. 5 Commercial and industrial customers have been grouped as a single end-user 6 VNSO, “2009 National Population and Housing Census,” July 2, 2011. group as the tariff structure does not enable a clear identification of each 7 IMF, “Vanuatu: 2015 Country Report No. 15/149; May 20, 2015,” June 9, end-user consumption. 2015.
6 3 Petroleum BAU Projections 3.1.2 Renewable Energy The Government of Vanuatu GoV and the two private 3.1 Petroleum for Electricity Generation sector utilities (UNELCO and VUI) have clearly established their commitment to include more 3.1.1 Access to Grid Electricity and Demand renewable energy in the electricity generation mix, Based on the 2013-2020 NERM, it was assumed that both in the concession areas and in rural mini-grid by 2030, 100% of households within grid concession projects. The targeted contribution of renewable energy areas and 100% of households close to concession in the NERM 2013-2020 was 40% renewable energy areas would be electrified through grid extensions.8 For electricity generation by 2015 and 65% by 2020.11 off-grid households, some will be electrified through micro-grid projects and the remainder through solar The average share of renewable energy in utility grid home systems (SHS) and solar lanterns.9 Projections for generation was about 25% during the period 2012 to electricity consumption for 2015-203010 are therefore 2014. At the end of 2015, the share of renewables in based on the assumption that 100% of the urban and the four utility grids (concession areas) had risen to an 41% of the rural population will be connected to grid average of 29% throughout the year. While the annual electricity. share of renewable energy was below the target for 2015, encouraging efforts have been made in past years As household connections increase, energy by the utilities and the GoV to increase the share of consumption per capita will also slowly increase over coconut oil, hydro, wind and solar in the generation mix. time. In combination with a growing demand from the In August 2015, the monthly share of renewable energy 3 Petroleum BAU Projections public, commercial and industrial sectors, the total grid in electricity generation represented 50% of the total 12 electricity consumption3.1 Petroleum is expected for Etolectricity grow by G124%eneration generation in the four concession areas, well above between 2015 and 2030, or 6% per year (for further the target of 40%. During the best month, i.e. when information see section3.1.1 5.1Access of this to Greport).rid Electricity and Demandnatural resources patterns are favorable, the Sarataka
– hydropower plant has met 88.8% of Luganville’s monthly demand while Devil’s Point wind farm has provided up to 26.7% of Port Vila’s electricity. A mix of – grid-connected solar and local coconut oil-based biofuel also complements the share of renewable energy in the
concessions on Efate, Malekula and Tanna. Figure 3. Projection of national electricity consumption
3.1.2 Renewable Energy
8 GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013. – 9 Although solar lanterns are a source of a small amount of good quality light (and can often also charge mobile phones), they are not always considered as full “electrification” due to the small amount of electricity they can provide, 11 ibid.
which limits their usefulness as a source of electricity. 12 URA, “Monthly Energy Market Report – September 2015,” October 31, , “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013. 10 GGGI, “Vanuatu Energy Efficiency – BAU Projections for Electricity,” 2015. 2015. “ ” GGGI, “ – ” 7
15 Existing micro and mini-grids in rural areas already However, it is important to keep in mind that most of rely on hydropower and solar-powered mini-grids will these projects are still awaiting funding confirmation be implemented from 2016 onwards. The technical and/or technical capacity for implementation. The feasibility for coconut oil usage has been demonstrated proposed Intended Nationally Determined Contribution in concession areas, although management costs of (INDC)14 submitted by the GoV to the United such installations remain significant. There is potential Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for replication of coconut oil electricity generation presents a detailed scenario for investments, which, if projects13 and these projects represent a unique implemented, could provide 100% renewable energy in opportunity to re-invest revenue from electricity into the concession areas during the 2020-2030 period. the rural economy and boost production of copra rather than importing petroleum products. However, apart The INDC includes the following projects: from within the UNELCO concession areas; the risks • Doubling of the wind installed capacity to 5.5 MW to sustainable operation of coconut oil projects remain by 2025; high, and considerable financial and technical support • Installing 10 MW grid connected solar PV by 2025; (covering issues such as land availability, technical • Commissioning the proposed first stage 4 MW operations, financial management, socio-economic geothermal plant by 2025; analysis and gender impacts) would be needed to • Adding 10 MW grid connected solar PV by 2030 establish more projects, particularly in rural areas. • Commissioning the second stage 4 MW geothermal plant by 2030; While the details and timing of commissioning for new • Substituting and/or replacing fossil fuels with grid connected renewable energy systems are not coconut oil based electricity generation . readily available at present, the number of projects in the pipeline as indicated by key stakeholders during the However, the INDC is an intended contribution and compilation of this report strongly indicates that the there is currently no legal obligation to implement share of renewable energy will increase in the coming the projects outlined within it. Furthermore, the 15 years. implementation of the INDC is conditional on the availability of funding from external sources. The proposed interventions in the INDC would need external funding of around US$180 million15 to complete implementation within the 2030 timeframe. In addition, substantial technology transfer would be required including institutional support and training.
Figure 4. Projection of electricity generation mix
1 0
1 0
120
100
0
G annu 0
0
20
0
ie el N ydro ind V Geot er al
Source: GoV, “Republic of Vanuatu: Intended Nationally igure Determined . ro e tion Contribution o ele tri ity (INDC),” generation September i 21, 2015. our e GoV, Repu li o Vanuatu Intended Nationally eter ined ontri ution IN , epte er 21, 201 .
In addition, and olar lantern , already idely adopted in t e rural area , ill ontinue to e i ple ented and o ple ent t e olution a o e or re ote ou e old and illage , and are e pe ted to pro ide a i lig ting and o ile p one arging olution to up to 0 o t e rural population in 2030.1 14 GoV, “Republic of Vanuatu: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC),” September 21, 2015, http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/
Published%20Documents/Vanuatu/1/VANUATU%20%20INDC%20 UNFCCC%20Submission.pdf. 13 National Advisory Board, GoV,3.1.3 “NationalProjected Advisory FBoarduel Donemand Climate Change for Electricity Generation and Disaster Risk Reduction – NAMA,” October 15, 2015. 15 Ibid
a ed on data pro ided y t e utilitie and R , t e di tri uted ele tri ity, t e are o petroleu in 8 ele tri ity generation and t e on u ption o petroleu produ t , t e petroleu on u ption or generation per di tri uted a al ulated. i a ound to e e ual to 0.2 liter or t e period 2010–2013.
ing t e pro e tion or di tri uted ele tri ity it in t e our on e ion and additional i ro grid ee e tion .1 , o ined it target or rene a le energy are ro t e NERM 2013–2020 0 in 201 and in 2020 and t e IN e ti ated a 0 in 202 and 90 in 2030 , t e pro e ted uel de and or ele tri ity generation i e ta li ed ee a le 3 . In t e al ulation , a i pli i ation i ade u ing t e a e are o rene a le energy or all t e on e ion grid , and it i a u ed t at tran i ion and di tri ution lo e ill e i ilar a ro t e grid and re ain t e a e o er ti e appro i ately 1 . It ould e noted t at in reality t i i not urrently t e a e, and t e our grid are in rea ing t eir rene a le energy penetration at a di erent pa e. ere ore, o e grid ill ontinue to u e ore petroleu produ t t an ot er .
1 GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013.
17 In addition, SHS and solar lanterns, already widely adopted in the rural areas, will continue to be implemented and complement the solutions above for remote households and villages, and are expected to provide basic lighting and mobile phone charging solutions to up to 50% of rural population in 2030.16
3.1.3 Projected Fuel Demand for Electricity Generation Based on data provided by the utilities and URA, the distributed electricity, the share of petroleum in electricity generation and the consumption of petroleum products, the petroleum consumption for generation per distributed kWh was calculated. This was found to be equal to 0.274 liters/kWh for the period 2010-2013.
Using the BAU projections for distributed electricity within the four concessions and additional micro-grids (see section 5.1), combined with targets for renewable energy share from the NERM 2013-2020 (40% in 2015, 65% in 2020) and the INDC (estimated as 80% in 2025 and 90% in 2030), the projected fuel demand for electricity generation was established (see Table 3). In the calculations a simplification has been made to use the same share of renewable energy for all the concession grids and it is assumed that transmission and distribution losses will also be similar across the grids and remain the same over time (approximately 15%). It should be noted that in reality this is not currently the case and the four grids are increasing their renewable energy penetration at a different pace. Therefore, some grids will continue to use more petroleum products than others.
16 GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013
9 274 90% 2030 85,276 73,149 10,468 168,893 152,004 286,836 2,336,552 2,004,281 4,627,668 274 80% 2025 9,166 53,047 60,026 97,792 122,240 502,312 2,906,992 3,289,442 6,698,747 274 65% 2020 8,074 33,696 49,428 91,198 59,279 774,266 3,231,438 4,740,163 8,745,867 274 40% 2015 7,262 24,657 42,292 74,241 29,697 4,058,578 6,952,782 1,193,908 12,205,268 271 2010 6,228 18.6% 18,420 39,566 64,214 11,969 1,064,063 8,729,833 1,374,211 14,168,107 = Projections 17 Blue -7% 9.7% 4.0% 2.6% -3.2% -8.2% -9.5% Growth 2020-2030 -7% 6.4% 3.2% 2.1% -4.5% -7.4% -8.3% Growth 2015-2020 -1% 3.9% 1.3% 1.9% -2.5% -5.0% -4.4% = Hypothesis calculated, Black = Raw data; = Hypothesis calculated, Black Raw CAGR 2010-2014 Green End-User Sector Residential (MWh) Commercial / Industry (MWh) Public & Street Lighting (MWh) (MWh) Consumption Electricity Total Share of Renewable Energy (%) Renewable Energy Consumption (MWh) Consumption per Petroleum Distributed Energy (L/MWh) Residential (L) Commercial / Industry (L) Public & Street Lighting (L) Consumption for Petroleum (L) Eelectricity Generation Key for table (same throughout the report): Key Table 3. Projected national electricity consumption and associated petroleum consumption for generation national electricity consumption and associated petroleum 3. Projected Table is the mean annual growth calculated as follows: (CAGR) 17 The compound annual growth rate
10 If the NERM 2013–2020 targets are met, then national 3.1.4 Kerosene for Lighting electricity consumption is expected to double in the Kerosene lamps were until recently used by 42% of rural coming 15 years. The main contributing factors being households for lighting. 19 These are now steadily being increased rural electrification, higher consumption per replaced by solar lanterns and other solar PV products capita over time, and increased number of connections such as SHS. The rapid adoption of solar technologies from the public sector and the commercial and industrial over the last few years has drastically reduced the sector. 18 use of kerosene, which in 2014 had dropped to 25% of the 2010 consumption level. 20 The Independent In addition, if renewable energy projects are Completion Review of the Lighting Vanuatu Project commissioned according to the INDC plan, the estimated that over 55,000 solar lanterns were increased share of renewable energy in the overall distributed between 2010 and 2013. 21 mix for electricity generation is expected to result in a significantIf reductionthe NE M 2013of petroleum–2020 targets consumption are met, then nationalBased electricity on NERM consumption 2013–2020 is expected targets to dou le for rural in for electricity. theAs comingshown 15in years.Figure he 5, mainthe volume contri uting of factors eingelectrification, increased rural the electrification consumption, higher of kerosene is expected petroleum fuelconsumption used for electricity per capita generationover time, and is increased num erto continue of connections to drop fro mand the become pu lic sector insignificant and the compared commercial and industrial sector.1 expected to drop to about one-third (33%) of 2015 to other petroleum products. Figure 6 illustrates this consumption byIn addition,2030. if rene a le energy pro ects are commissionedtrend accordingwith an assumed to the INDC annual plan, the decrease increased of 20% between share of rene a le energy in the overall mix for electricity2015 generation and 2020, is and expected 10% tobetween result in 2020a and 2030. significant reduction of petroleum consumption for electricity. As sho n in igure 5, the volume of petroleum fuel used for electricity generation is expected to drop to a out one third 33 of 2015 Figure 5. Projectionconsumption of petroleum y consumption 2030. for electricity generation
igure 5. ro ection of petroleum consumption for electricity generation Figure 6. Projection of kerosene consumption for lighting
3.1.4 Kerosene for Lighting
erosene lamps ere until recently used y 42 of rural households for lighting.18 hese are no steadily eing replaced y solar lanterns and other solar V products such as SHS. he rapid adoption of solar technologies over the last fe years has drastically reduced the use of erosene, hich in 2014 had dropped to 25 of the 2010 consumption level.1 he Independent Completion evie of the ighting Vanuatu ro ect estimated that over 55,000 solar lanterns ere distri uted et een 2010 and 2013.20
Based on NE M 2013–2020 targets for rural electrification, the consumption of erosene is expected to continue to drop and ecome insignificant compared to other petroleum products. igure 6 illustrates this trend ith an assumed annual decrease of 20 et een 2015 and 2020, and 10 et een 2020 and 2030.
igure . ro e tion o ero ene on u tion or lig ting
19 VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010,” January 28, 2013. 3.2 Petroleum for Transportation 20 Department of Customs and Inland Revenue, GoV, “Petroleum product 1 Commerce and industry are considered as one sector in thisimport report. 2010–2015,” 2015. 18 VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey21 Australian 2010,” January Aid, “Lighting 28, 2013 Vanuatu:. Independent Completion Report,” October 18 Commerce e and e elo ent industry1 Department are considered o of Customst e as Vanuatuone andsector Inland in e ono y this evenue report. ,i GoV, largely “Petroleum e en ent14, 2015.product importon tran ort 2010–2015, relate ” 2015. a ti itie . it in ea i lan ,20 Australian lan Aid, e i le “Lighting o er Vanuatu o ility: Independent or goo Completion an er on Report,” October in lu ing 14, 2015. touri t an t e ean or on tru tion an aintenan e o ey in ra tru ture. 11 19 nter onne tion et een i lan it in t e ar i elago ill al ay e en on o e ti a iation an arine tran ort. nter i lan tran ort e an i alrea y in rea ing a e on ig er lo al o ulation o ility, touri an gro ing e ort o lo al ro u tion attle, o ra, o onut oil, o oa an a a .
3.2.1 Land Vehicles
an tran ort re re ent t e a ority o etroleu uel on u tion it 0 y olu e in 2011.21 E ery year, a out 1,000 a itional e i le are regi tere in ort Vila an ugan ille,22 re ulting in a gro ing nu er o total lan e i le . e nu er o ne ly regi tere e i le i li ely to gro in line it Vanuatu’s gro t , at a rate o 2 er year.23
o t o t e ne ly regi tere e i le are e e te to la t e en year . e analy i al o a u e t at ea year, 20 o ort Vila an ugan ille e i le t at rea e en year ol are ent to rural area ere t ey are u e or anot er our year . ar a ay ro ur an area , t ey are o t li ely not regi tere any ore. a re ult, t e nu er o regi tere e i le ten to e igni i antly le t an t e nu er o e i le a tually on t e roa , at lea t or ri ate ar an tru .
egi tere e i le are ig ly on entrate in t e ort Vila area. n 2010, 1 o otor e i le ere oun in e a ro in e o tly E ate an 1 in an a ro in e ainly anto .2 i tren i e e te to ontinue o er ti e it regi tere e i le eing o tly lo ate in ur an area . a le an o t e nu er o ne ly regi tere e i le an t e total nu er o e i le in u e, re e ti ely.
a le . tual an ro e te nu er o ne ly regi tere lan e i le
21 David Butcher and Associates, “ inal e ort: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s il an a Supply Chain,” April 24, 2013. 22 VN , “Quarterly Statistical In i ator e u li o Vanuatu – January–March 2015,” June 26, 2015, tt . n o.go . u in e . o u ent li rary ie o nloa ile 2 . 23 VN , 201 . 2 VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010,” January 28, 2013.
20 3.2 Petroleum for Transportation Most of the newly registered vehicles are expected to last seven years. The analysis also assumes that each The development of the Vanuatu economy is largely year, 20% of Port Vila and Luganville vehicles that dependent on transport-related activities. Within each reach seven years old are sent to rural areas where they island, land vehicles offer mobility for goods and persons are used for another four years. Far away from urban (including tourists) and the means for construction and areas, they are most likely not registered anymore. As maintenance of key infrastructure. a result, the number of registered vehicles tends to be significantly less than the number of vehicles actually on Interconnection between islands within the archipelago the road, at least for private cars and trucks. will always depend on domestic aviation and marine transport. Inter-island transport demand is already Registered vehicles are highly concentrated in the Port increasing based on higher local population mobility, Vila area. In 2010, 71% of motor vehicles were found tourism and growing exports of local production (cattle, in Shefa province (mostly Efate) and 17% in Sanma copra, coconut oil, cocoa and kava). province (mainly Santo). 25 This trend is expected to continue over time with registered vehicles being 3.2.1 Land Vehicles mostly located in urban areas. Tables 4 and 5 show Land transport represents the majority of petroleum the number of newly registered vehicles and the total fuel consumption with 50% by volume in 2011.22 Every number of vehicles in use, respectively. year, about 1,000 additional vehicles are registered in Port Vila and Luganville, 23 resulting in a growing number of total land vehicles. The number of newly registered vehicles is likely to grow in line with Vanuatu’s GDP growth, at a rate of 2% per year. 24
Table 4. Actual and projected number of newly registered land vehicles
CAGR Growth Growth Newly Registered Land Vehicles in 2010- 2015- 2020- 2010-2014 2015-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Port Vila and Luganville 2014 2020 2030 Motorcars 8.5% 2% 2% 2,159 3,848 3,575 3,947 Pick-Ups -11.5% 2% 2% 1,690 1,332 1,237 1,366 Trucks -4.7% 2% 2% 266 283 263 290 Buses -3.0% 2% 2% 1,120 1,274 1,184 1,307 Motorcycles -0.4% 2% 2% 478 605 562 620 Total New (Port Vila & Luganville) 5,713 7,342 6,821 7,531 Note: Green = Hypothesis calculated, Black = Raw data; Blue = Projections
Table 5. Actual and projected number of land vehicles in use (registered and non-registered)
CAGR Growth Growth Vehicle Type 2010- 2015- 2020- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2031 2014 2020 2030 Registered = 6.4% 3.3% 2.3% 4,956 6,618 7,737 8,742 9,744 Port Vila & Luganville 4% 3% 2% 2% Non-Registered = 2.8% 4.0% 2.7% 552 645 781 905 1,021 Rural Areas [Estimated] 4% 3% 3% 2% Total 6.1% 3.4% 2.4% 5,508 7,263 8,518 9,647 10,765 Note: Green = Hypothesis calculated, Black = Raw data; Blue = Projections
22 David Butcher and Associates, “Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” April 24, 2013. 23 VNSO, “Quarterly Statistical Indicators: Republic of Vanuatu – January– March 2015,” June 26, 2015, http://www.vnso.gov.vu/index.php/document-li brary?view=download&fileId=4257. 25 VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010,” January 24 VNSO, 2014 28, 2013.
12 CAGR Growth Growth Newly Registered Land Vehicles in 2021– 2026– 2010– 2015– 2020– 2010–2014 2015–2020 Port Vila and Luganville 2025 2030 2014 2020 2030 Total New (Port Vila & Luganville) 5,713 7,342 6,821 7,531
CAGR Growth Growth Vehicle Type 2010– 2015– 2010 2015 2020 2025 2031 2020–2030 2014 2020 Registered = Port Vila & Luganville Non-Registered = Rural Areas [Estimated] The total number of land vehicles in use in Vanuatu 15 In May 2015, 645 vehicles were registered with a Total years from now, including6.1% both 3.4%registered and2.4% non- 5,508government 7,263 license8,518 plate, 26 representing9,647 almost10,765 10% of registered vehicles, will be 50% higher than present the national fleet. This share is not expected to change levels (see Figure 7), and will create an increased significantly by 2030. It is estimated that 50% of the demand for petroleum products for land transportation. vehicles will be owned by households in 2030 (with The mix of newly registered vehicles is shown in Figure 8. 22% of households in Port Vila and Luganville owning a car, and around 1% of households elsewhere). Based Figure 7. Number of land vehicles on GGGI’s analysis, it is estimated that the commercial and industrial sector will represent 40% of registered ground vehicles by 2030.
Expected future fuel consumption for ground transportation is linked to the growing number of vehicles registered in the country, at an annual increase of between 2% and 3%. In addition, the planned development of road infrastructure in each island is expected to increase the amount of travel and thus, the average fuel consumption per vehicle. The combination of population mobility, tourism and transportation of locally-produced goods or imported products are all assumed to push petroleum consumption for land transport to a growth rate of more than 4% per year.
In 2010, over three-quarters of household heads in Vanuatu (85%) stated that the main means of transport used by members of the household was public transport, compared to private transport, which only accounted for 7%. 27 Thus, vehicles from the commercial and Figure 8. Newly registered vehicle mix industrial sector (e.g., company vehicle fleets, and public transport such as trucks, buses and taxis) are expected Motor-cycle to remain the main drivers for fuel consumption. 8% Vehicle growth rates up until 2030 in the public sector (governmental vehicles) and the residential sector will represent a similar trend in fuel volume demand.
Based on BAU projections by end-user sector21 in Buses Figure 9, it is estimated that the average petroleum 18% consumption per vehicle per year is 64% growth for the New registered commercial and industrial sector, and 16% growth for Trucks vehicle mix MotorCars the public sector. The average petroleum consumption 4% 53% per vehicle for the residential sector represents only one-quarter of use (CAGR of 16%) in the commercial Pick- Ups and industrial sector. 18% Improvements in data collection regarding land vehicles by the GoV would enable an improved analysis of land transportation trends, for example, data collection by category of end-user (residential, public, commercial/ industrial). Data collection by fuel type (diesel, gasoline or other) and engine sizes/cylinder capacity sizes would also enable further and more in-depth analysis of transport sector energy usage.
26 Department of Customs and Inland Revenue, “Total number of G plated vehicles ranging from cars to road construction equipment,” in Rates and Taxes, May 2015. 27 Ibid.
13 Based on GGGI’s analysis,
Figure 9 Petroleum consumption for land transportation, by end-user sector
3.2.3 Air Travel
3.2.2 Marine Transportation The total number3.2.2 of marineMarine vessels Transportation includes: about Sales data from Société des Services Pétroliers 30 marine vessels operating for cargo and passenger (Pacific Petroleum) has enabled the calculation of the services; 25 large fishing boats; 49 registered charter- consumption of fuel related to the air industry (AVGAS game fishing boats; 43 pleasure yachts; and 8 dive and JETA1). While Aviation Gasoline (AVGAS) is used boats.28 In addition to this total of 155 registered sea “ exclusively for the domestic market, Jet Fuel (JETA1) vessels, the Vanuatu coasts are” filled with countless is required for both international and domestic flights fiberglass boats used by local communities for fishing (connections made with an ATR plane for Efate-Santo and transport of goods, Ni-Vanuatu people and tourists. and Efate-Tanna). The share of domestic demand for There is no data available on the number of these small, JETA1 is estimated to be 30% 31 which, combined with usually privately-owned vessels. Therefore, the total AVGAS, recorded an annual growth of over22 25% per number of vessels in Vanuatu, and their usage patterns year between 2010 and 2014 for domestic aviation. 32 Fuel are not well known, and the number of registered consumption for international flights is not considered vessels is an underestimate of the total vessels in use. in these BAU projections.
There is very limited data available on petroleum Inter-island mobility, partially relying on domestic consumption for marine transport. In 2010, it flights, is expected to continue growing at a rapid rate represented only 2% of the domestic demand for to support the pressing demand from all sectors in the petroleum products. 29 However, based on a growing country. It is therefore assumed that fuel consumption domestic cargo freight sector, and increased number will increase at a rate of 5% per year, resulting in a of registered and non-registered boats for small-scale doubling of petroleum volume consumed annually for fishing, leisure activities and tourism, the volume of fuel domestic air transport between 2015 and 2030. dedicated to sea vessels is expected to grow at the same rate as land transport (4%). The trend in the residential sector is increasing air travel for personal reasons (work, holidays and medical needs). As there is no data available on usage of petroleum It is therefore estimated that domestic air travel for the in the marine transport sector that is broken down residential sector would represent 50% of the overall by end user, a simplified set of assumptions has been demand of domestic aviation fuel use (see Figure 11). made as follows. The projected share of petroleum Business trips, tourism and air freight (commercial/ use for sea transport for residential and commercial/ industrial sector) would contribute up to 40%, while industrial sectors is assumed to be equal (50% each), the remaining 10% would be used by the public sector while the public sector contribution is assumed to be (government representatives and civil servants). insignificant30 (see Figure 10).
28Vanuatu sea vessel registry, 2015. 29 David Butcher and Associates, “Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” April 24, 2013. 30 The GoV currently owns only six vessels. The largest is on lease to the private 31 Société des Services Pétroliers. sector and is therefore counted as commercial and industrial consumption. 32 Department of Customs and Inland Revenue, GoV, “Petroleum product The other five are small vessels. import 2010–2015,” 2015.
14 e o al n e o a ine essels in l des a o a ine essels o e a in o a o and assen e se i es la e is in oa s e is e ed a e a e is in oa s leas e ya s and di e oa s In addi ion o is o al o e is e ed sea essels, e an a oas s a e illed i o n less i e lass oa s sed y lo al o ni ies o is in and ans o o oods, i an a eo le and o is s e e is no da a a aila le on e n e o ese s all, s ally i a ely o ned essels e e o e, e o al n e o essels in an a , and ei sa e a e ns a e no ell no n, and e n e o e is e ed essels is an nde es i a e o e o al essels in se
e e is e y li i ed da a a aila le on e ole ons ion o a ine ans o In , i e esen ed only o e do es i de and o e ole od s o e e , ased on a o in do es i a o ei se o , and in eased n e o e is e ed and non e is e ed oa s o s all s ale is in , leis e a i i ies and o is , e ol e o el dedi a ed o sea essels is e e ed o o a e sa e a e as land ans o
s e e is no da a a aila le on sa e o e ole in e a ine ans o se o a is o en do n y end se , a si li ied se o ass ions as een ade as ollo s e o e ed s a e o e ole se o sea ans o o esiden ial and o e ial ind s ial se o s is ass ed o e e al ea , Figure ile 10. Petroleum e li consumption se o on for seai ion transportation, is ass ed by end-user o e insi ni i an sector see i e
, ,
, ,
Inter(L) island , , mo ility, partially relying on domestic flights, is e pected to continue gro ing at a rapid rate to support the pressing demand from all sectors in the country. It is therefore assumed that fuel , , consumption ill increase at a rate of 5 per year, resulting in a dou ling of petroleum volume consumed annually for domestic air transport et een 2015 and 2030.
ons ion , , he trend , , in the residential sector is increasing air travel for personal reasons or , holidays and medical needs . It is therefore estimated that domestic air travel for the residential sector ould Inter island , , mo ility, partially relying on domestic flights, is e pected to continue gro ing at a rapid rate
representPetroleum 50 of the overall demand of domestic aviation fuel use see Figure 11 . Business trips, to support the pressing demand from all sectors in the country. It is therefore assumed that fuel tourism , and air freight commercial industrial sector ould contri ute up to 40 , hile the remaining consumption ill increase at a rate of 5 per year, resulting in a dou ling of petroleum volume 10 ould e used y the pu lic sector government representatives and civil servants . consumed annually for domestic air transport et een 2015 and 2030.
he trend 10,000,000 in the residential sector is increasing air travel for personal reasons or , holidays and o e ial Ind s y s a e esiden ial s a e li s a e medical needs . It is therefore estimated that domestic air travel for the residential sector ould ,000,000 represent 50 of the overall demand of domestic aviation fuel use see Figure 11 . Business trips, ,000,000 tourism and air i e freight commercial e ole ons ionindustrial sector o s ea ould ans o a ion contri ute ,up y to end 40 se , hile se o the remaining ,000,000 Figure10 11. Petroleum ould e consumption used y the for pu lic air transportation, sector government by end-user representativessector and civil servants . ,000,000 3.2.3 Air Travel 10,000,000 5,000,000
ales da a 4,000,000 ,000,000 o o i des e i es olie s a i i e ole as ena led e al la ion o e ons ion 3,000,000 ,000,000 o el ela ed o e ai ind s y G and ile ia ion Gasoline G is
sed Consumption Petroleum e l si ely 2,000,000 ,000,000 o e do es i a e , e el is e i ed o o in e na ional and do es i li s onne ions ade i an lane o a e an o and a e anna e s a e o 1,000,000 ,000,000 do es i de and o is es i a ed o e i , o ined i G , e o ded an ann al o 5,000,000o o e e yea e een and o do es i a ia ion el ons ion o in e na ional 4,000,000 li 2010s is no onside ed2015 in ese B o e ions 2020 2025 2030 3,000,000 Commercial Industry share Residential share Pu lic share
Petroleum Consumption Consumption Petroleum 2,000,000
Figure 11. Petroleum consumption for air transportation, y end user sector an a 1,000,000 sea essel e is y, David Butcher and Associates, “Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” April 24, 2013.2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 e3.2.4 Go en lyOverall o ns Projected only si essels Fuel eConsumption la es is on lease for o T eransportation i a e se o and is e e o e o n ed as o e ial and ind s ial ons ion Commercial e Industry o e share i e a e s allResidential essels share Pu lic share As o i sho n des in Figure e i es 1 2 olie s, the annual demand for petroleum products com ining all means of transport is e a en o s o s and Inland e en e, GoV, “Petroleum product import 2010– ,” 2015. e pected to dou leFigure et een 11. Petroleum 2015 and consumption 2030 to reach for a air volume transportation of over , y million end user liters sector for the year 2030 Figure alone. 12. Petroleum consumption for the transportation sector
23 3.2.4 0,000,000 Overall Projected Fuel Consumption for Transportation 0,000,000 As sho n in Figure 12, the annual demand for petroleum products com ining all means of transport is e pected 0,000,000 to dou le et een 2015 and 2030 to reach a volume of over million liters for the year 2030 alone. 50,000,000
40,000,000 0,000,000 30,000,000 0,000,000 20,000,000 0,000,000 Petroleum Consumption Consumption Petroleum 10,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 30,000,000 ransport and ransport Sea ransport Air 20,000,000 Petroleum Consumption Consumption Petroleum 10,000,000 Figure 12. Petroleum consumption for the transportation sector
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 15 ransport and ransport Sea ransport Air 24 Figure 12. Petroleum consumption for the transportation sector
24 3.2.4 Overall Projected Fuel Consumption for 3.3 Petroleum for Cooking Transportation As shown in Figure 12, the annual demand for As shown in Figure 13, 40% of LPG consumption was petroleum products combining all means of transport is used for cooking in the residential sector (mostly urban expected to double between 2015 and 2030 to reach a areas) in 2014. The remaining 60% was used in the 33 volume of over 69 million liters for the year 2030 alone. public and commercial/industrial sectors where 50% is assumed to be used for cooking in restaurants and In 2030, it is projected that ground transport will hotels, and 10% for cooking in boarding schools and continue to be the main contributor to transport institutions (e.g., hospitals). A small percentage may also energy demand at 83.3%, followed by air travel at be used for LPG-powered air conditioners in a few large 3.3 Petroleum for Cooking 11.6%, and marine transport at 4.7%. In light of the buildings. As a result, over 90% of the total LPG sold is limited data available for marine transport, the share of assumed to be used for cooking purposes (see also Table 6). petroleum use for the maritime transport sector should be viewed with caution and further data collection is recommended to enable more detailed analysis of the current situation and future trends for this sector. The commercial/industrial, residential and public end-user sectors are expected to be responsible for 60.6%, 24.9% and 14.6% of the petroleum demand for transport, respectively. Figure 13. LPG consumption, by end-user sector –
Figure 14. Other petroleum usage, by end-user sector
3.4 Other Petroleum Usage
– 25
33 Origin Energy Imports & Sales Volume 2010–2014. 3.5 National Petroleum Consumption Projections Under the BAU Scenario 16
–
26 LPG consumption has remained relatively steady for the Land vehicles will continue to be the dominant last 5 years (see Table 6), but it is still expected to grow contributor with an increasing share from 50% in based on an increased demand from the tourism sector 2010 to an expected 71% in 2030. The second driver (hotels and restaurants), and growing use of LPG as the for petroleum consumption is air transport with an first fuel of choice for cooking in the urban areas (slowly expected 10% increase by 2030. The increasing share of replacing wood fuel and kerosene). However, LPG price renewable energy in grid electricity generation targeted and logistics related constraints are important barriers in the NERM 2013–2020 will result in a reduction of the to increased consumption (it is unlikely that the use imported fuel volume for electricity generation from of LPG will expand in rural areas for these reasons). 29% of the total in 2010 to 6% in 2030. Consumption Therefore, a limited annual growth of 1% until 2020 and related to cooking, sea transport and other usage will 2% beyond is assumed (2020–2030). continue to grow, although their share of the overall volume will stagnate by around 5% each. The quantity 3.4 Other Petroleum Usage of kerosene used for lighting, while already insignificant compared to other activities, will continue to decline. A significant portion of the national petroleum consumption (between 5% and 7%) could not be Taking into account that the market penetration of included in the functional usage detailed above (i.e., grid more efficient vehicles or equipment is relatively slow electricity, transport and cooking). This outstanding and that limited energy efficiency measures have been balance of fuel comprises petroleum products used implemented so far in Vanuatu 34 to reduce dependency for domestic gensets, back-up generators in buildings, on imported fossil fuels, the potential for energy construction sites, factories or others, LPG air efficiency interventions remains very high. Energy conditioners in large buildings, and other fuel-powered efficiency measures should address land transport as a equipment. The commercial and industrial sector priority if petroleum imports are to be managed. Further represents an estimated 80% of this consumption, investigation into maritime transport petroleum use while the residential and public sectors are estimated to is also required in order to better understand energy account for 10% each (see Figure 14). demand for inter-island transport. 3.5 National Petroleum Consumption Projections Under the BAU Scenario The breakdown per functional energy usage presented in the analysis above enables an estimation of the type of activities that will be the highest contributors to the overall national petroleum products demand in 2030. 3.5 National Petroleum Consumption Projections Under the BAU Scenario The projection of national petroleum consumption, by type of functional end use from 2015 to 2030 is shown in Figure 15. Figure 15. Past trends and BAU projections for petroleum consumption, by type of functional end use
34 The few energy efficiency projects that have been implemented to date have focused only on the electricity sector. 17 –
26
CAGR Growth Growth Sector 2010– 2014– 2020– 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2014 2020 2030 Table 6. Past trends and BAU projections for petroleum products demand CAGR Growth Growth Sector 2010- 2014- 2020- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2014 2020 2030 Land Transport (L) 3.4% 4.0% 4.5% 25,952,613 29,003,840 37,553,259 44,538,981 58,150,560 Sea Transport (L) 3.4% 4.0% 4.5% 1,441,812 1,611,324 2,086,292 2,474,388 3,230,587 Air Transport (L) 25.3% 5.0% 5.0% 1,490,559 3,863,055 4,930,346 6,292,510 8,031,014 Electricity (L) -4.2% -5.0% -6.2% 14,168,107 12,205,268 8,745,867 6,698,747 4,627,668 Cooking (L) -1.9% 1.0% 2.0% 2,789,724 2,608,536 2,741,598 3,026,945 3,341,992 Kerosene for -29.2% -20.0% -10.0% 163,499 32,800 10,748 6,347 3,748 Lighting (L) Other (L) 1.8% 3.2% 3.9% 2,139,243 2,263,458 2,771,692 3,231,124 4,066,085 TOTAL 48,145,556 51,588,283 58,839,802 66,269,041 81,451,654 Note: Green = Hypothesis calculated, Black = Raw data; Blue = Projections Figure 16. Contribution in overall petroleum consumption, by end-user sector
Table 7. Past and projected petroleum consumption, by end-user sector
CAGR Growth Growth Sector 2010- 2015- 2020- 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2014 2020 2030 27 Residential 2.6% 2.0% 3.2% 12,214,084 13,899,096 15,634,965 17,738,474 21,344,617 (L) Commercial & Industry 0.8% 2.2% 3.3% 29,762,891 30,981,159 35,377,686 39,646,960 48,972,202 (L) Public (L) 1.7% 2.6% 3.6% 6,168,582 6,708,028 7,827,151 8,883,607 11,134,834 TOTAL 48,145,556 51,588,283 58,839,802 66,269,041 81,451,654
Note: Green = Hypothesis calculated, Black = Raw data; Blue = Projections
18 The BAU scenario for petroleum products is based on 3.6 Impact of the Non-Achievement of NERM information and past historical trends for which data 2013–2020 Targets was only available from a functional usage perspective. The contribution by end-user sectors to projected The NERM 2013–2020 targets for the share of demand for petroleum has been estimated for each type renewable energy in electricity generation are of activity (i.e., transport, cooking, others) in the sections ambitious with 40% targeted in 2015 and 60% in above. This information is combined in Figure 16 and 2020, while the Vanuatu INDC proposes an increase Table 7 to show the projection of national petroleum to 90% by 2030. These renewable energy targets consumption by end-user type from 2015 to 2030. have implications for the consumption of petroleum. If Vanuatu does not achieve the NERM targets or the The commercial and industrial sector remains the main INDC target, petroleum consumption projections will petroleum consumer with an expected share of 60% increase compared to the BAU scenario presented of petroleum demand in 2030. Therefore, the private above. In the case where only two-thirds of each target sector should be a strong focus for any energy efficiency is achieved, i.e., 26.6% in 2015, 39 40% in 2020 and 60% initiatives. in 2030, the result would be an increase by 90% in the BAU projection of cumulative petroleum consumption Vanuatu households (residential sector) will be for electricity generation by 2030. With only two-thirds responsible for 26% of petroleum demand, and public of the renewable energy for electricity generation bodies under the GoV account for 14%. While the targets achieved, the annual petroleum consumption for contribution of the GoV to the overall demand of electricity would increase by 24% between 2015 and petroleum products is relatively small, the leadership 2030, instead of the 62% decrease currently projected role of government in incorporating energy efficiency under the BAU. into its own processes and infrastructure should not be underestimated. It is important to show that the GoV itself is making energy efficiency a priority through energy efficiency projects in the public sector.
It should be noted that various petroleum consumption projections for Vanuatu have been established over the last 20 years, mostly using a functional usage approach but based on a slightly different hypothesis. 35 Table 8 summarizes the assumptions of the various reports.
Table 8. Petroleum growth projections from various sources
1992 World Bank 2004 SREP H&T38 GGGI GGGI Growth Rate Report36 Report37 2012-2022 2015 - 2020 2020 -2030 GDP 2 - 2.5% 2.8% 4.0% 4% 4% Population 3.5% 2.5% 3.1% 3.1% Transport sector 3.5% per Petrol @ 8% Petrol @ 3% Petrol @ 3% @ 5% annum declining to 4% LPG @ 1% LPG @2% Jet fuel @ 3% Jet fuel @ 1% Kerosene @ -20% Kerosene @ -10% Petroleum Remaining fuel @ Diesel: Jet fuel @ 5% Jet fuel @ 5% Products 2 - 2.5% Transport @ 4% Diesel @ 1.7% with: Diesel @ 3.3% with: Electricity @ 2% Transport Transport Outer island @ 8% land & sea @ 4% land & sea @ 4.5% LPG @ 4% Electricity @ -5% Electricity @ -6.2%
35 A comparison of these scenarios was presented in Hale and Twomey, and David Butcher and Associates, “Draft Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” November 2012. 36 World Bank, “Pacific Regional Energy Assessment,” August 25, 1992. 37 Peter Johnston, “SPREP – Pacific Regional Energy Assessment 2004,” November 5, 2005. 38 Hale and Twomey, and David Butcher and Associates, “Draft Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” November 2012. 39 In reality, 29% renewable energy electricity was achieved on average in 2015.
19 4 Biomass BAU Projections A five-day survey conducted by the Department of Forestry at the Port Vila market 43 concluded that 4.1 Sectoral Assumptions and BAU Projections the main species used as fuelwood in urban areas are Leucaena leucosephala followed by Macaranga Biomass sources in Vanuatu are 50% mixed fuelwood and Accasia spirobis. Based on interviews, traders of (5% moisture content) and 50% coconut residues (air fuelwood are spending more time to find and collect dry – 0% moisture content). These types of biomass are fuelwood (some of which is converted into charcoal). locally available to the rural population at no, or very The majority of those interviewed have indicated that low cost. In 2012, 79% of Vanuatu’s population was fuelwood resources are in decline, and there is a need wholly or partially dependent on traditional fuels, which for replanting and sustainable harvesting. Based on almost exclusively was fuelwood and other agricultural the crude estimates of biomass consumption currently wastes such as coconut husk. Currently, there is no available and national population data, it is estimated commercial use of biogas or biomass resources for that the current daily consumption of a household energy apart from coconut oil. 40 There is a small market relying on biomass for cooking is about 8 kg fuelwood. for biomass-based charcoal but no data is available on charcoal production quantities. Non-energy related In the absence of changes in household behavior and biomass production (such as timber) is not included in technologies used for cooking and drying, the national this analysis. biomass consumption is likely to increase in line with population (3.1% growth) and GDP (4% growth) over In 2004, the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional the coming 15 years. Environment Programme (SPREP) estimated that biomass provides over 50% of gross national energy 4.2 National Biomass Consumption Projections production. About 106 kilotons of fuelwood were Under the BAU Scenario estimated to be consumed per annum for cooking, as 95% of the rural population and 47% of the urban Acknowledging that the baseline data available population still cooked with biomass fuel. 41 It is for biomass consumption is limited, the following worth noting that cooking with biomass in Vanuatu projections are rough estimates only and would need to is predominantly via open fire cooking and other be updated when the next national survey on biomass inefficient cooking methods. In addition, a large portion usage for energy is conducted. of biomass is used for drying purposes in agriculture with copra as one of the main commodities. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimated that in 2012 around 43,600 toe of fuelwood is burned each year for cooking and crop drying. 42 Figure 17. Estimated national biomass consumption in urban and rural areas
40 DoE and United Nations Development Programme, “NAMA on Rural Electrification in Vanuatu,” 2015, http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/ library/Environment%20and%20Energy/MDG%20Carbon%20Facility/ NAMA%20Final%20Vanuatu.pdf. 41 Peter Johnston, “SPREP – Pacific Regional Energy Assessment 2004,” November 5, 2005. 42 IRENA, “Vanuatu: Renewables Readiness Assessment,” June 2015, http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RRA_ Vanuatu_2015.pdf. Note: There is an inconsistency on the data information from IRENA and SPREP/GEF estimates on biomass – this is due to limited 43 Tate Hanington, “Wood Energy a Reliant Energy Source for Vanuatu,” SPC information available on biomass usage in Vanuatu. Newsletter, December 1, 2012.
20
31 The demand for biomass is driven by cooking and crop 5 Electricity BAU Projections drying in rural households and businesses. With an expected annual growth in biomass usage of 3% in the 5.1 Residential Sector Assumptions and BAU next 5 years, and 4% between 2020–2030, the required Projections volume of fuelwood and coconut residues being burnt is estimated to increase by 78% between now and 2030. 5.1.1 Projected Number of Households If this scenario does eventuate, it could lead to the Based on the urban and rural households figures following impacts: (1) increased deforestation around available for the years 1999 and 2010 from two reports areas with high population density; (2) increased time the “Energy Efficiency Targets Report – Vanuatu” of spent collecting biomass; and (3) continued negative the Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific Phase 2 impacts on health, caused by exposure to smoke. These (PEEP2) Project of the Asian Development Bank 44 and impacts will have a disproportionate impact on women, VNSO’s “Household Income and Expenditure Survey who are largely responsible for cooking tasks. 2010” 45—the number of urban and rural households up to 2030 are estimated: The biomass sector is open to a wide range of potential energy efficiency interventions. These can slow the rate • The CAGRs for the number of urban and rural of demand growth and result in benefits to consumers households for the period 1999 and 2010 were and businesses in terms of reduction in overall costs 3.9% for urban households and 2.8% for rural (time spent or monetary), as well as positive impacts households. on the environment, including management of • The distribution of rural households among deforestation and reduction of carbon emissions. provinces are based on data from the Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010.
Table 9. Projected number of households
Year 1999 2010 Share CAGR 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source PEEP2 HIES 2010 No. of Urban Households 8,218 12,460 3.9% 13,615 14,445 16,745 19,412 22,504 Port Vila 9,760 78% 10,665 11,315 13,117 15,206 17,628 Luganville 2,700 22% 2,950 3,130 3,629 4,207 4,877 No. of Rural Households 28,197 38,280 2.8% 40,623 42,264 46,663 51,520 56,882 Torba 1,790 5% 1,900 1,976 2,182 2,409 2,660 Sanma Rural 7,040 18% 7,471 7,773 8,582 9,475 10,461 Penama 6,930 18% 7,354 7,651 8,448 9,327 10,298 Malampa 8,680 23% 9,211 9,583 10,581 11,682 12,898 Shefa Rural 6,960 18% 7,386 7,684 8,484 9,367 10,342 Tafea 6,880 18% 7,301 7,596 8,387 9,260 10,223 Total No. of Households 36,415 50,740 2.2% 54,238 56,709 63,408 70,932 79,386 Notes: PEEP2 = Data from Asian Development Bank’s PEEP2 Project HIES 2010 = VNSO’s Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010 Green = Hypothesis calculated, Black = Raw data; Blue = Projections
Source: VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010,” January 28, 2013.
44 International Institute for Energy Conservation, “Appendix 2.5: Energy Efficiency Targets Report – Vanuatu,” in Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015) 45 VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010,” January 28, 2013.
21 By assuming that the share of each province of the total According to the 2013-2020 NERM electrification population remains the same between 2010 and 2030, 46 status by 2030 should therefore be: the following projected numbers of households for the years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 are obtained as • 100% of urban households electrified through shown in Table 9. connections in existing concessions areas,52 • 50% of rural households electrified either by grid 5.1.1.1 Projection of Electrification Rates extensions (9%) or by micro-grids (91%), and In 2013, the electrification rate in Vanuatu was 27%47 • the remaining 50% rural households not connected (this data was heavily skewed toward major urban to grid electricity using solar lanterns or solar home centers). In 2010, 80% of the urban households and 11% systems. of the rural households, where more than 75% of the population resided, were electrified.48 It should be noted that the BAU scenarios presented here do not consider the households electrified by SHS Electricity supply is mainly provided by two utilities or solar lanterns. (UNELCO and VUI) operating grids on the main islands of Vanuatu: Efate (Port Vila), Santo (Luganville), Table 11 shows the estimated access to national Malekula (Lakatoro) and Tanna (Lenakel). There are electricity in 2015. These estimates, by concession smaller distribution networks on the islands of Sola, areas, are calculated based on the 2013 number Ambae and Maewo, which are operated by provincial of customers (from utilities’ data) to which 2010– governments 2013 CAGR was applied, and the electricity access assumptions presented in the report, “Nationally In the NERM 2013–2020 projections, it is assumed that Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) on Rural by 2030, 100% of households within grid concession Electrification in Vanuatu” were used.53 areas and 100% of households close to concession areas would be electrified through grid extensions. For off-grid households, according to the Vanuatu Rural Electrification Project,49 25% of the households are expected to be electrified through micro-grid projects, and the remaining 75% through SHS 50 and solar lanterns. 51
Table 10. Electricity access: Baseline and roadmap targets
Current 2015 2020 2030
68% Households Within Grid Concession (12,500 75% 90% 100% Areas ~ 18,500 Households) Households Close to Concession 0% 33% 90% 100% Areas – Grid Extensions ~ 3,000 Off-Grid Households ~ 31,500 <10% TBD 100% 100%
Public Institutions (Grid and Off- 50% 90% 100% 100% Grid)
Source: GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013. Note: Total number of households ~53,000 based on the 2010 Census Update and national average of 4.5% persons per household.
46 According to the Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010, no major rural exodus has been observed in recent years 47 DoE, “Update on the Energy Sector in Vanuatu,” 2015. 48 GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013. 52 According to the DoE, connection rates have only started increasing since 49 DoE, “Vanuatu Rural Electrification Project,” July 28, 2015. the Global Partnership on Output Based Aid (GPOBA) Improved Electricity 50 Solar home systems (SHS) refer to solar panel installations and basic internal Access Project that started in October 2014. wiring that can supply several lights and charging facilities for phone, TV, 53 DoE and United Nations Development Programme, “NAMA on Rural radio, etc. Electrification in Vanuatu,” 2015, 25, http://www.undp.org/content/dam/ 51 Solar lanterns refer to the cash-and-carry pico lighting and charging products undp/library/Environment%20and%20Energy/MDG%20Carbon%20 sold through retail shops and other establishments. Facility/NAMA%20Final%20Vanuatu.pdf.
22 Table 11. Electricity access in 2015
Banks Group Island Efate Espirito Santo Tanna Malekula Ambae Maewo (Vanua Lava) PENAMA TORBA Talise Operator UNELCO VUI UNELCO UNELCO Provincial Provincial Community GoVernment GoVernment Customers 10,338 2339 682 526 125 75 80 Installed capacity 2635 4.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.07 0.0075 (MW) Annual sales Commissioned 52,243 7,742 509 620 NA NA (MWH) in late 2014 Diesel, Energy Wind, Hydro + Diesel + Biofuel + Biofuel + Biofuel + Diesel Hydro sources Biofuel & Diesel Solar Diesel Diesel Solar
Sources: Utilities; and DoE and United Nations Development Programme, “NAMA on Rural Electrification in Vanuatu,” 2015.
Tafea rural: Grid extension in the Tanna concession area Province-wise electrification rates were estimated is expected to reach 200 households. However, only for the period between 2015 and 2020, based on 91% of the existing concession area can be electrified electrification projects planned (grid extension)54 and on through grid extension. Construction of one micro- already financed rural electrification projects (see Table grid in Whitesand Tanna is underway reaching 88 12 below):55 households. An additional micro-grid is expected to be built in the island of Aniwa electrifying 29 households. Urban Areas: Port Vila and Luganville: Due to the Global Partnership on Penama rural: On Maewo, the grid is expected to be Output Based Aid (GPOBA) Improved Electricity Access extended and connect an additional 20 households, and Project, it is expected that the electrification growth an off-grid hydro project is expected to bring electricity rate of Luganville will grow between 2015 and 2020. to around 300 households. The same mix (off-grid hydro and grid extension) is planned for the island of Ambae, Rural Areas: reaching 45 households. One micro-grid is planned in Shefa rural: There are 1,058 households to be connected Pentecost Island electrifying 51 households. A European around the ring road as part of the Efate grid extension Union financed biofuel rural electrification project completion. 56 This would represent on average should electrify an additional 350 households in off-grid 30% of all households outside of concession areas, areas of Penama. but implementation depends on the progress of the geothermal power project. The grid extension should be Torba rural: Extension of the grid in Sola is expected to completed by 2020. electrify 100 households, and projects financed by the European Union are targeting 300 households. Samna rural: According to the grid extension plan presented in the NERM, the east coast of Santo and the south will be electrified through grid extension. This should enable the connection of 1,000 households by 2020.
Malampa rural: On the island of Malekula, the concession grid is to be extended up to Vao reaching 100% households within this area. Then micro-grid projects are planned for electrification of another 630 households by 2020.
54 National Advisory Board, GoV, “National Advisory Board on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction – NAMA,” October 15, 2015. 55 Ibid. 56 Castlerock Consultants, Vanuatu: Efate Geothermal Power and Island-Ring Grid Development Framework (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2011).
23 SREP Scaling Up Renewable Energy in Income Countries Program Low aims to pilot and Program the economic, social demonstrate viability of and environmental in the pathways development creating new energy sector by economic opportunities and increasing energy access through the use of renewable energy. All off-grid areas in Vanuatu USD 14 million (Financed through ADB Funds, Climate Investment & WB group) USD 34.2 million* Bank and Asian Development Bank Group World of Project Preparatory Approval Assistance – June 2015 Technical DoE and Private sector vendors renewable energy service companies M3P Melanesia’s Million Melanesia’s Programme Miracle aims to Program electric provide lighting through solar lanterns for 200 households in 2 communities, with further scaling up if additional envisaged funds are available. 2 communities in (White Sands Tanna Resolution) and Port USD 110,000 n.a. Secretariat of the Community Pacific (SPC) Implementation started Q4/2014 DoE Equipment suppliers, Alternative in Commodities Trade (ACTIV) Vanuatu IUCN Talise Hydro Project Hydro Talise Project aims to increase access to electricity services in Maewo. It targets 300 households, 3 schools 1 health center, and small shops. Off-grid areas in Maewo USD 1 million (financed IUCN and GoV) by > USD 1 million IUCN Ongoing DoE n.a. EU Biofuel Rural Electrification Biofuel Rural Project Project aims to increase access to electricity services households of for rural and Malampa Torba Penama, It targets 300 provinces. 350 households in Torba, and households in Penama 500 households in Malampa. it also targets 2 Additionally, hospitals, 4 dispensaries, 10 schools, business houses and facilities. government Off-grid areas of Penama, and Malampa provinces Torba by ~USD 3.5 million (financed the European Union and GoV) ~USD 3.5 million European Union Ongoing DoE be There may Not currently. in future. 57 World Bank World Vanuatu Rural Electrification Rural Vanuatu Project (VREP) – Phase 1 and 2 access Project aims to provide to electricity services for 17,500 households, 230 aid posts rural and 2,000 community halls located in dispersed off-grid areas. The project will reach 85% of the off- grid households. The project will subsidize the retail cost of eligible PV systems by solar “plug & play” 50%. All off-grid areas in Vanuatu by New USD 4.7 million (financed Bank) through the World Zealand USD 4.7 million Bank and World New Zealand Officially launched in September closing date is 2015. The revised December 31, 2019 DoE Equipment suppliers
GPOBA GPOBA Grid Based Electricity Access Project Project aims to increase sustainable access to formal grid-based electricity services electricity within Vanuatu's concession services areas for low-income customers through targeted subsidies. 80% The project aims to cover of the cost connecting 4,375 households to the national grid through post-paid and pre-paid metered (where available) connections. and VUI concession UNELCO areas USD 4.85 million GPOBA (financed through Australian Aid); and USD 0.51 user contributions USD 5.36 million Bank Aid and World Australian Start of roll out – March 2014 DoE VUI UNELCO, World Bank, “Rural Electrification Project: Implementation Status & Results Report,” 10 December 2015, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/221461468318266762/pdf/ISR-Disclosable Electrification Project: Implementation Status & Results Report,” Bank, “Rural World -P150908-12-10-2015-1449724124185.pdf.
12. Ongoing electrification projects Table DoE Source: *This includes USD 4.7 million for the VREP - Phase 1 57. Full name of initiative name of initiative Full Short description area Target Financing budget Total Financing institution Timeline Project implementing unit private parties Involved
24 In order to fulfill the ambitious rural electrification 5.1.2 Households Electrified targets set by the GoV in the NERM 2013–2020, during Based on the assumptions regarding household 2020–2030 it is assumed that at least the same number numbers and electrification rates discussed above, of electrification projects as during 2015–2020 will be the number of electrified households up to 2030 is maintained between each subsequent five year periods estimated in Table 14. (i.e., between 2020 and 2025 and then between 2025 and 2030). Even with all these projects, it is estimated As shown in Table 14, because of the relatively high that Vanuatu will likely only reach 41% of rural projected population growth rate as well as the electrification through grid extensions and micro-grids, ambitious electrification targets set by the GoV, below the 50% target set by the NERM (see Table 13). even if NERM targets are not fully met, the number of electrified households is expected to triple in the coming 15 years, with electrified rural households outnumbering urban electrified households by 2030. The evolution of electrified households by location is shown in Figure 18. Table 13. Electrification rates in Vanuatu 2010 2013 Year Source: HIE Sources: 2015 2020 2025 2030 2009 UNELCO & VUI % of Urban Households 80% 84% 86% 95% 97% 100% Electrified Port Vila 83% 88% 92% 96% 98% 100% Luganville 68% 67% 66% 90% 95% 100% % of Rural Households 11% 11% 11% 22% 34% 41% Electrified Torba 1% 4% 17% 28% 35% Sanma 10% 9% 20% 28% 38% Penama 3% 3% 11% 20% 25% Malampa 7% 5% 6% 20% 38% 45% Shefa 30% 27% 37% 45% 50% Tafea 8% 11% 11% 25% 38% 48% % of Total Households 28% 30% 41% 51% 58% Electrified Note: Green=calculated / Black=hypothesis and historical data
Table 14. Number of electrified households
Annual Growth Annual Growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 Rate Rate 2010–2020 2020–2030 Urban 13,002 17,226 21,396 26,556 6% 4% Port Vila 10,849 13,679 16,872 20,801 5% 4% Luganville 2,153 3,548 4,524 5,754 7% 5% Rural 4,677 11,229 19,577 27,411 10% 9% Torba 82 400 760 1,092 33% 11% Sanma 728 1,859 2,991 4,664 10% 10% Penama 239 1,007 2,103 3,020 19% 12% Malampa 598 2,292 5,004 6,810 15% 12% Shefa 2,159 3,400 4,752 6,067 5% 6% Tafea 870 2,271 3,967 5,757 15% 10% 17,473 28,455 40,973 53,967 7% 7%
25 Figure 18. Evolution of the number of households electrified
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
5.1.3 Distribution of Existing and New Customers Overall, based on the analysis of past trends, 59 The analysis of UNELCO and VUI technical reports residential electricity consumption is expected to evolve 5.1.3 Distribution of Existing and New Customers of 2013 shows that new residential customers have a as follows: much lower average household electricity consumption than existing customers. However, average electricity • For urban areas connected to the utility grid consumption of new customers grows at a much faster (Port Vila and Luganville), the average household rate than that of existing customers. Therefore, prior electricity consumption will remain almost constant, to estimating future average electricity consumption, the growth in number and size of appliances being the analysis first estimates the number of existing compensated by the gain in energy efficiency of customers and new customers. newer appliances available on the market. 60
As shown in Table 15, based on the analysis of average • For rural areas connected to utility grids in Malekula consumption of residential customers in UNELCO and and Tanna, the average electricity consumption VUI technical reports, it is assumed that a new customer will tend toward Luganville customers’ average. takes on average 10 years to reach the consumption The average electricity consumption of these level of existing customers. two concessions should thus increase toward the Luganville level. 5.1.4 Average Residential Electricity Consumption For the estimation of future average residential • For rural areas connected to mini-grids in the electricity consumption, it is assumed that the annual provinces of Torba and Penama, it is estimated that growth rates will be lower in 2015–2020 than in the average electricity consumption will follow that 2020–2030. This is because of programs such as the of Tanna. GPOBA Improved Electricity Access Project that is running between 2014 and 2018 and will enable low- It is expected that once older inefficient appliances have income households to connect to the main grid. Based been replaced in urban areas with more efficient ones, on previous experience 58 low-income households the older appliances will be recycled and reused in rural joining the grid have low initial electricity consumption, areas. This should increase per capita consumption in thus lowering the overall average growth rate for the rural areas. 38 2015–2020 period. Based on these assumptions, the growth rates for future evolution of per capita residential consumption are estimated as shown in Table 16.
59 Ibid. 60 Note that this gain in energy efficiency is already slowly happening vene 58 Utilities reports from UNELCO and VUI, 2013 without any specific energy efficiency measures.
26 Table 15. Number of existing and new customers
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Urban 9,976 12,797 17,226 21,396 26,556 Port Vila 8,140 10,849 13,679 16,872 20,801 Existing 8,140 8,140 9,495 13,618 18,383 Customer New Customer - 2,709 4,184 3,253 2,418 Luganville 1,836 2,153 3,548 4,524 5,754 Existing 1,836 1,836 1,995 3,009 4,931 Customer New Customer - 317 1,553 1,516 823 Rural 4,174 4,677 11,229 19,577 27,411 Torba 23 82 400 760 1,092 Existing 23 23 53 271 776 Customer New Customer - 59 347 490 316 Sanma 708 728 1,859 2,991 4,664 Existing 708 708 718 1,303 3,003 Customer New Customer - 20 1,141 1,687 1,661 Penama 174 239 1,007 2,103 3,020 Existing 174 174 206 655 1,979 Customer New Customer - 65 800 1,448 1,041 Malampa 568 598 2,292 5,004 6,810 Existing 568 568 583 1,460 4,514 Customer New Customer - 30 1,709 3,544 2,296 Shefa 2,120 2,159 3,400 4,752 6,067 Existing 2,120 2,120 2,140 2,770 3,761 Customer New Customer - 39 1,261 1,982 2,306 Tafea 581 870 2,271 3,967 5,757 Existing 581 581 725 1,498 2,732 Customer New Customer - 289 1,546 2,469 3,025
Table 16. CAGRs of household electricity consumption per capita in different areas
CAGR Growth Rate Growth Rate (Historical) 2010 - 2020 2020 - 2030
New CAGR of New Customers’ Electricity Consumption in Rural Areas 3.0% 5.0% Customers CAGR New Customers’ Electricity Consumption in Urban Areas 8.0% 8.0% CAGR of Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Malekula – 8.2% 3.0% 2.0% Malampa Existing CAGR of Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Tanna – Tafea -0.2% 2.0% 4.0% Customers CAGR of Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Port Vila – Shefa -2.8% -1.0% 0.5% CAGR of Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Luganville – Samna 0.2% 0.0% 0.5%
27 For existing customers in concession areas, average For new customers in and outside concession electricity consumption is directly taken from UNELCO areas, per capita consumption is defined based on and VUI reports of 2013: the consumption of pre-paid customers in 2013 in UNELCO concessions. 61 It should be noted that based • Port Vila: 134 kWh/month; on previously mentioned assumptions, per capita • Luganville: 88 kWh/month; electricity consumption patterns 62 are calculated in • Malekula: 44.5 kWh/month; and Table 18 and graphically represented in Figure 19. • Tanna: 31.3 kWh/month.
For new customers in micro-grids area, average electricity consumption is evaluated according to their estimated level of equipment as defined in the NERM 2013–2020 (see Table 17).
Table 17. Level of equipment of micro-grids customers Newly Connected Household Watts Hours / Day kWh / Day KWh / Month Appliances Lighting CFL * 2@11W 22 8 0.2 5.3 Phone Charging 5 2 0.0 0.3 TV 65 0 0.0 0.0 Radio 35 12 0.4 12.6 Total 127 22 0.6 18.2
Source: GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013.
Table 18. Average annual electricity consumption in rural and urban households
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2025 2030
Average Annual Electricity Consumption in 371 408 424 444 435 576 704 860 Rural Households (kWh/Year)
Average Annual Consumption - Existing Clients - 360 414 434 495 534 656 725 800 Malekula - Malampa Average Annual Consumption - Existing Clients 379 404 415 406 375 431 524 638 - Tanna - Tafe Average Annual Consumption - New Clients – 323 413 526 Rural Areas Average Annual Electricity Consumption in 1,696 1,805 1,686 1,585 1,512 Urban Households (kWh/Year) Average Annual Consumption - Existing Clients - 1,850 1,964 1,836 1,696 1,608 1,499 1,537 1,576 Port Vila – Shefa Average - Annual Consumption - Existing Clients 1,043 1,146 1,038 1,086 1,054 1,054 1,081 1,108 - Luganville - Samna Average Annual Consumption - New Clients - 675 991 1,457 Port Vila Average Annual Consumption - New Clients – 453 666 979 Luganville Ratio Urban/Rural 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.5 Note: Blue = Projections
61 The UNELCO pre-paid tariff is a highly subsidized connection for those that consume less than 60 kWh/month. The subsidy to low-energy users is provided by charging higher prices to high-demand customers. The 60 kWh/ month tariff was set at VUV16.22/kWh or 15.59 US cents in May 2015 compared to over VUV50/kWh (over 45 US cents) for customers consuming over 60 kWh/month. 62 For simplification and as data on electricity consumption in existing micro- grids were not available, per capita consumption in rural areas outside of concessions started to be computed only for after 2013.
28 Figure 19. Average annual electricity consumption of households
Average A nnual C o nsumption - Exi s t ing Clients - Malek u l a - Malampa
Average Annual C o nsumption - Ex is t ing Clients - Tanna - T afea
Average Annual C onsumption - Ne w Clien t s – Rura l A reas
Average Annual C o nsumption - Ne w Average A nnual Co n sump t ion - E x isting Clients - Port Vila – Shefa – Rural Areas Average - A nnual C o nsumption - Exi s t ing Clients - Luganv il l e - Samna
Average Annual C onsumption - Ne w Clien ts - Port V i la
Average Annual C onsumption - Ne w Clien t s – Luga n v ille
Note: The decline observed between 2010 and 2011 in the graph above is due to the increase of new customers in 2011 impacting the overall level of residential average electricity consumption.
5.1.5 Projected Electricity Sales for the Residential Sector5.1.5 Projected Electricity Sales for the Residential Sector Calculating the number of existing and new customers with their average annual electricity consumption, projections of electricity sales are estimated in Table 19.
Table 19. Projected electricity sales
2015 2020 2025 2030 Projected Electricity Demand in Urban 22,874 29,738 43,722 65,845 Areas (MWh/Year)
Total Household Demand in Port Vila 20,837 26,908 39,427 59,548
Total Household Demand in Luganville 2,037 2,830 4,295 6,297 Projected Electricity Demand in Rural 1,808 4,324 9,439 16,947 Areas (MWh/Year) Total Household Demand in Torba 26 135 344 661 Total Household Demand in Samna 282 678 1,379 2,790 Total Household Demand in Penama 86 348 941 1,811 Total Household Demand in Malampa 330 935 2,520 4,821 Total Household Demand in Shefa 838 1,329 2,270 3,613 Total Household Demand in Tafea 307 812 1,804 3,335 42 Total Household Electricity 24,743 33,976 52,979 82,876 Consumption (MWh/Year)
29
2015 2020 2025 2030 Projected Electricity Demand in Urban Areas (MWh/Year)
Projected Electricity Demand in Rural Areas (MWh/Year) Total Household Electricity Consumption (MWh/Year) Figure 20. Evolution of total residential electricity consumption
Electricity Consumption (kWh/Year) (kWh/Year) Consumption Electricity
Total Household Demand in Port Vila Total Household Demand in Luganville Total Household Demand in Torba Total Household Demand in Samna Total Household Demand in Penama Total Household Demand in Malampa Total Household Demand in Shefa Total Household Demand in Tafea
These BAU projections for the residential sector can be Using the previously estimated annual growth rate used as the baseline to prepare energy efficiency targets and the number of customers in 2013 from VUI and for Vanuatu. UNELCO reports, the evolution of the commercial and industrial customer numbers shown in Figure 21 is Overall, residential electricity consumption is calculated. For off-grid areas, a conservative assumption expected to more than triple in the coming 15 years, that the initial number of customers will be around half and residential demand is expected to remain highly the number of customers in Malekula (therefore 14 concentrated in Port Vila. customers) is used. 63
5.2 Commercial and Industrial Sector Assumptions Taking into consideration the above assumptions, the and BAU Projections total number of consumers is therefore predicted to grow by 156% (2,293 consumers) in 15 years, with the 43 5.2.1 Number of Commercial and Industrial number of commercial and industrial customers in Port Customers Vila experiencing the greatest increase. Growth rates used in the projections for commercial and industrial customer numbers are estimated, based on the CAGRs, which were obtained from the number of commercial and industrial customers (from 2009–2013) in UNELCO and VUI technical reports of 2013, and on the analysis of past trends.
Table 20. CAGRs for customer numbers in the industrial and commercial sector
CAGR Growth Rate Growth Rate (Historical) 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Port Vila 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Luganville 1.2% 1.2% 3.0% No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Tanna 8.9% 4.0% 6.0% No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Malekula 0.8% 2.0% 3.0% No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Off-Grid Areas 2.0% 4.0%
Figure 21. Number of industrial and commercial customers
63 Based on the UNELCO utility report of 2013, the number of commercial and industrial customers in Malekula is 28 and it is assumed that half of these customers are in off-grid areas i.e., 14 customers.
30 5.2 Commercial and Industrial Sector Assumptions and BAU Projections
5.2.1 Number of Commercial and Industrial Customers
–
Growth Rate Growth Rate CAGR (Historical) 2015–2020 2020–2030
No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Port Vila No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Luganville
No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Tanna No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Malekula
No. of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Off-Grid 5.2.2 Average Commercial and Industrial Electricity Consumption
Table 21. Average electricity consumption of industrial and commercial customers CAGR Growth Rate Growth Rate (Historical) 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030
Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial -0.7% 0.0% 1.0% Customers in Port Vila Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial CAGR Growth Rate Growth Rate 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% Customers in Luganville (Historical) 2015–2020 2020–2030 44 Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial 13.7% 4.0% 5.0% Customers in Tanna Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial 1.5% 3.0% 4.0% Customers in Malekula Average annual consumption of Com & Ind Customers in off- 3.0% 3.0% grid areas (kWh/year) Figure 22. Average annual electricity consumption of the commercial and industrial sector
Number of Customers
Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Port Vila
Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Luganville
Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Tanna
Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Malekula
Average Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Off-Grid Areas
31
45 5.2.2 Average Commercial and Industrial Electricity As with the results for the residential sector, the Consumption commercial and industrial customer demand will remain Based on the analysis of UNELCO and VUI technical strong in urban areas (mainly in Port Vila but also, to a reports, and the assumption that average consumption lesser extent, in Luganville), and electricity consumption in off-grid areas will be similar to Malekula, annual in the sector is likely to nearly double in the coming 15 growth rates for per capita consumption of commercial years. and industrial customers is estimated in Table 21. Based on these growth rates, the projected average These BAU projections for the commercial and consumption of commercial and industrial customers industrial sector can be used to prepare energy over time is estimated in Figure 22. efficiency targets for Vanuatu, which targets this group of consumers. Over the next 15 years, due to the current low development of both commerce and industries in the 5.3 Public Sector and Street Lighting Assumptions country, it is expected that the average electricity and BAU Projections consumption of commercial and industrial customers across the nation will grow 3% to 4% annually with the 5.3.1 Number of Public Sector Customers exception of Port Vila where growth will be lower. As Based on the growth of public sector customers the majority of commercial and industrial customers between 2009 and 2013 (from UNELCO and VUI are based in Port Vila, the overall average electricity technical reports of 2013), and assuming that the consumption of commercial and industrial customers number of public sector customers in off-grid area will are therefore only likely to grow 1% annually. follow the same growth pattern as Malekula, growth rates are estimated in Table 22. 64 5.2.3 Projected Electricity Sales in the Commercial and Industrial Sector Based on historical trends from UNELCO and VUI Taking into account the number of existing customers technical reports, it is assumed that the number of with their average annual electricity consumption, public sector customers in off-grid areas will be similar and the projected5.2.3 Projected increases in Enumberslectricity and Sgrowthales in the Ctoommercial Malekula. and Industrial Sector in consumption estimated above, the projections of electricity sales are shown in Figure 23. Figure 23. Projected electricity sales in the commercial and industrial sector
Total Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Luganville
Total Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Off-Grid Areas
Total Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Malekula
Total Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Tanna
Total Annual Consumption of Commercial & Industrial Customers in Port Vila
64 For further information on the evolution of public sector customer numbers, see the Appendix. 32
46 Table 22. CAGRs and growth rates of the number of public sector customers
Growth Rate Growth Rate CAGR (Historical) 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 No. of Public Sector Customers in Port Vila 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% No. of Public Sector Customers in Luganville 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% No. of Public Sector Customers in Tanna -0.8% 7.0% 4.0% No. of Public Sector Customers in Malekula 6.2% 7.0% 4.0% No. of Public Sector Customers in Off-Grid Areas 7.0% 4.0%
Table 23. Projections of public sector customer volume
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Total No. of Public Customers 317 364 403 452 505 No. of Public Sector Customers in Port Vila 187 212 229 248 269 No. of Public Sector Customers in 83 86 92 99 107 Luganville No. of Public Sector Customers in Malekula 28 24 25 30 37 No. of Public Sector Customers in Off-Grid 19 23 32 39 47 Areas No. of Public Customers in Off-grid Areas 20 25 35 45
With the growth rates and the number of public sector 5.3.2 Average Public Sector Electricity Consumption customers in 2013, indicated in UNELCO and VUI The average electricity consumption of public sector technical reports, projections of public sector customer customers is taken from UNELCO and VUI technical volume are shown in Table 23. reports of 2013. In off-grid areas, it is estimated that average consumption of public sector customers is In 15 years, it is therefore expected that the number of below the lowest consumption in rural concession areas. public sector customers will grow overall by more than 150%. The majority of new customers will come from The average annual electricity consumption growth rural areas reflecting the increase in rural electrification. rates estimated are based on the calculated CAGRs, and the historical trends of average electricity consumption of public sector customers between 2009 and 2013 from UNELCO and VUI technical reports.
Table 24. CAGRs of average annual electricity consumption in the public sector
CAGR Growth Rate Growth Rate (Historical) 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 Average Annual Consumption of Public Sector Customers in Port Vila 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% Average Annual Consumption of Public Sector Customers in Luganville 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% Average Annual Consumption of Public Sector Customers in Tanna 7.3% 2.0% 4.0% Average Annual Consumption of Public Sector Customers in Malekula -4.5% 1.0% 4.0% Average Annual Consumption of Public Sector Customers in Off-Grid 4.0% 4.0% Areas
33 To calculate the projected average electricity 5.3.3 Projected Electricity Sales for the Public consumption, each concession’s 2013 values, taken from Sector UNELCO and VUI technical reports, were used. For all By calculating the number of existing customers with off-grid areas, it is estimated that average consumption their average annual electricity consumption, the CAGR Growth Rate Growth Rate will be lower than the lowest average consumption in all projections for electricity sales are obtained (Figure 25). concession areas (3,000kWh/year). This, combined with (Historical) 2015–2020 2020–2030 the previously estimated CAGRs, give the projections for the public sector’s per capita electricity consumption (Figure 24). It is therefore expected that public sector average annual consumption will grow slowly, with the increase in demand being mitigated by ongoing improvements in energy efficiency of appliances and lighting used by the each concession’s 2013 values, taken government. Figure 24. Perpublic capita sector’s annual electricity consumption for the public sector
Average Consumption in Port Vila Average Consumption in Luganvile
Average Consumption in Tanna Average Consumption in Malekula
Average Consumption in Off-Grid Areas
Figure 25. Projected public sector electricity sales 12,000 10,000
5.3.3 ,000 Projected Electricity Sales for the Public Sector
,000 h ,000
2,000
2010 201 2020 202 2030
otalTotal Annual annual Consumption consu ption of o Public ublic Sector costu ers Customers in ri in Off-Grid areas Areas
otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsu ption of o Public ublic Sector costu ers Customers in alekula in Malekula
otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsu ption of o Public ublic Sector costu ers Customers in anna in Tanna otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsu ption of o Public ublic Sector costu ers Customers in u anville in Luganville otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsu ption of o Public ublic Sector costu ers Customers in ort in Port ila Vila 48
i ure 2 ro ecte public sector electricit sales
5.3.4 Assumptions Regarding Street Lights 34 ccor in to a 1 report on anuatu, in 200 , the street li htin net ork o anuatu as co pose o la ps an consiste o i erent t pes o la ps—hi h pressure so iu an ercur vapor— ith an avera e po er ran in ro 0 to 00 per ittin ost street li htin net ork la ps ere ine icient, eca in , costl to aintain, an 3 o the nee e to be replace as the ere no lon er unctionin ince unicipalities ere not pa in their electricit bill re ularl , ail street li htin operatin hours ere re uce to about ive hours
able 2 treet li htin net ork in anuatu, 200 Number Current Power Share of Lamps Number of Lamps Total Power Annual Energy Consumption (Lamps) (W) Functioning Functioning (KW) (MWh/Year)
2 0 100 2 2 2 12 0 1 122 2 0 100 21 3 23 00 100 23 10 1 ource conoler nternational, “PEEP1: Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 1),” November 16, 2012.
ase on ata ro ece ber 2012, the ner icienc treet i htin ro ect proposal publishe in une 2013 or ort ila an u anville ro 2, reporte 23 street li hts in u anville, a on hich 21 ere ri connecte an 23 ere o ri solar po ere
reporte havin the ollo in nu ber o street li hts
2 street li hts in alekula 2010–201 2 street li hts in anna 2010–201 an
Econoler International, “PEEP1 Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 1),” November 16, 2012. Felix Gooneratne, “Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific ro ect roposal – Phase 2,” June 24, 2013.
49 5.3.4 Assumptions Regarding Street Lights UNELCO reported having the following number of According to a PEEP1 report on Vanuatu, 65 in 2009, the street lights: street lighting network of Vanuatu was composed of 984 lamps and consisted of different types of lamps— • 26 street lights in Malekula (2010–2015); high-pressure sodium and mercury vapor—with an • 25 street lights in Tanna (2010–2015); and average power ranging from 80W to 400W per fitting. • 163 street lights in Port Vila under maintenance Most street lighting network lamps were inefficient, contract (2010–2014), and from March 2014, 712 decaying, costly to maintain, and 35% of them needed street lights. to be replaced as they were no longer functioning. Since municipalities were not paying their electricity Based on these pieces of information as well as on bill regularly, daily street lighting operating hours were UNELCO’s report of total street light electricity reduced to about five hours. consumption, the average operating hours are calculated (see Table 26). Based on data from December 2012, the Energy Efficiency Street Lighting Project proposal published in June 2013 for Port Vila and Luganville from PEEP2, 66 reported 238 street lights in Luganville, among which 215 were grid connected and 23 were off-grid solar PV powered.
Table 25. Street lighting network in Vanuatu, 2009
Number Share of Lamps Total Power Annual Energy Number (Lamps) Current Power (W) of Lamps Functioning (KW) Consumption (MWh/Year) Functioning 24 80 100% 24 2 4 862 125 60% 517 67 122 75 250 100% 75 21 38 23 400 100% 23 10 18
Source: Econoler International, “PEEP1: Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 1),” November 16, 2012.
Table 26. Street light operating hours in UNELCO’s concessions
Street Light Operating Hours 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Average
Port Vila 4 3 4 4 5 4.0 Malekula 5 5 5 5 4 4.6 Tanna 2 2 2 2 2 1.8
Source: UNELCO
Table 27. Street lighting network in Vanuatu before March 2014
Average Current Power (W) Total Power Average Annual Annual Energy Street Light Number Installed Consumption Consumption Operating 42 60 70 75 125 250 400 Installed (kW) (kWh/Year) (MWh/Year) Hours Port Villa 4.0 576 73 21 670 99 215 144.2 Luganville 8 115 100 215 21 287 61.7 Malekula 4.6 26 26 3 212 5.5 Tanna 1.8 25 25 3 83 2.1 Total 5 727 73 21 936 126 228 213
Sources: UNELCO; and International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015).
65 Econoler International, “PEEP1: Promoting Energy Efficiency in the acificP (Phase 1),” November 16, 2012. 66 Felix Gooneratne, “Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific: Project Proposal – Phase 2,” June 24, 2013.
35 The state of street lights in Vanuatu between 2010 and 5.3.5 Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights 2014 is shown in Table 27. The PEEP2 final report,67 stated that in the near future in Port Vila, the operating hours of street lights might In March 2015, PEEP2 reported having replaced 75% change from 4–6 hours to 11 hours per day due to the of all Luganville’s street lights (based on 2013 total reduction of the electricity bill after the first energy lighting) and 25% of Port Vila’s street lights with 70W efficiency projects are implemented. This should have a LED lights, improving lighting quality and reducing significant impact on Port Vila street lights’ electricity electricity consumption by up to 50% for lights replaced. consumption.
Combining PEEP2 report and data from UNELCO, the For Malekula, it is expected that future street light state of street lighting in Vanuatu in 2015 is shown in installations will lower the average street light Table 28. electricity consumption as the street lights currently used are very inefficient. This phase should be followed By analyzing Tables 27 and 28, and assuming that over by an increase of the average electricity consumption the period the number of street lights in Vanuatu will of street lights mainly because of a progressive increase increase, the evolution of the number of street lights is in operating hours. Since Tanna street lights’ average estimated (see Table 29). electricity consumption is far below Malekula’s consumption, an overall increase is expected even if new street lights installed are more efficient.
Table 28. Street lighting network in Vanuatu in 2015
Average Current Power (W) Total Power Average Annual Annual Energy Street Light Number Installed Consumption Consumption Operating Installed (kW) (kWh/Year) (MWh/Year) Hours 42 60 70 75 125 250 400
Port Vila 4 39 163 30 0 410 49 21 712 85 175 124.7 Luganville 8 264 56 0 320 23 207 66.2 Malekula 4.6 26 26 3 210 5.5 Tanna 1.8 25 25 3 82 2.1 Total 5 163 461 49 21 1083 114 183 198
Sources: UNELCO; and International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015).
Table 29. CAGRs of the number of street lights in different areas
CAGR CAGR CAGR
2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 No. of Street Lights in Port Vila 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% No. of Street Lights in Luganville 8.3% 2.0% 1.0% No. of Street Lights in Tanna 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% No. of Street Lights in Malekula 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% No. of Street Lights in Off-Grid Areas 5.0% 5.0%
Sources: UNELCO; and International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015).
67 International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015).
36 Table 30. CAGRs and annual growth rates of average annual consumption of street lights
CAGR Annual Growth Rate Annual growth rate (Historical) 2013 - 2020 2020 - 2030 Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights in Port Vila -4.0% 2.0% 1.0% Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights in Luganville -6.3% -1.0% 1.0% Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights in Tanna 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights in Malekula 0.0% -1.0% 1.0% Average Annual Consumption of Street Lights in Off-Grid Areas 2.0% 3.0%
Source: UNELCO and VUI Technical reports and PEEP 2 Reports
Figure 26. Average electricity consumption of street lights
2 0
200
1 02 0
200 100
1 0 0
100 0 201 2016 201 201 201 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202 2026 202 202 202 2030 0 verage onsum tion in Port ila verage onsum tion in uganville 0 verage onsum tion in anna verage onsum tion in ale ula 201 2016 201 201 201 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202 2026 202 202 202 2030 verage consum tion in off gri area verage onsum tion in Port ila verage onsum tion in uganville
verage onsum tion in anna verage onsum tion in ale ula Figure 26. verage electricity consum tion of street lights verage consum tion in off gri area 5.3.6 Projection of Street Lights’ Total Electricity Consumption5.3.6 Projection of Street Lights’ Total Electricity Consumption Figure 26. verage electricity consum tion of street lights By computing the previously mentioned estimations, the total electricity y com uting consumption the reviously of street mentione lights estimations, is the total electricity consum tion of street lights is calculate 5.3.6 (see ProjectionFigure 2 ). of Street Lights’ Total Electricity Consumption calculated (see Figure 27).
y 300com uting the reviously mentione estimations, the total electricity consum tion of street lights is Figure 27. Electricitycalculate consumption (see Figure of street 2 ). lights
250 300
200 250
150 200
100 150 Electricity Consumption (MWh) Consumption Electricity 50 100
Electricity Consumption (MWh) Consumption Electricity - 201550 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
otal nnual onsum tion of in Port ila otal nnual onsum tion of in uganville - otal2015 nnual2016 onsum tion2017 2018 of 2019 in anna2020 2021 otal2022 nnual2023 onsum tion2024 2025 of2026 in2027 ale ula2028 2029 2030 otal nnual onsum tion of in offgri areas otal nnual onsum tion of in Port ila otal nnual onsum tion of in uganville Note: treet ights otal nnual onsum tion of in anna otal nnual onsum tion of in ale ula Figure 2 . Electricity consum tion of street lights otal nnual onsum tion of in offgri areas
Note: treet ights Figure 2 . Electricity consum tion of street lights
52
37 52 5.3.7 Projected Electricity Sales for the Public 5.4 National Electricity Consumption Projections Sector and Street Lighting Under the BAU Scenario By adding both the annual consumption of public sector customers and that of street lights, the public sector’s According to the previously described sectoral total electricity consumption is calculated (see Figure projections, the projected national-level electricity 28). consumption under the BAU scenario for the years 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 is shown in Table 31 and These BAU projections for the public sector can be used Figures 29 and 30. to prepare energy efficiency targets for Vanuatu.
Similar to both the residential sector and the commercial and industrial sector, public sector demand for electricity should remain at the same level in Port Vila. In the coming 15 years, overall public sector demand should grow annually by 3% representing a s total increase of almost 60%. y a ing both the annual consum tion of ublic sector customers an that of street lights, the ublic Figure 28. Electricitysector’s consumption total electricity of public consum tion sector consumers is calculate and street (see Figure lights 2 ).
12,000
10,000
,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
201 2016 201 201 201 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 202 2026 202 202 202 2030
otalTotal Annual annual Consumption consum tion of of Public Public Sector costumers Customers treet and Street ights Lights in ff gri in Off-Grid areas Areas otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsum tion of Publicof Public Sector costumers Customers treet and Street lights Lights in ale ula in Malekula otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsum tion of Publicof Public Sector costumers Customers treets and Street lights Lights in anna in Tanna otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsum tion of Publicof Public Sector costumers Customers treet and Street ights Lights in uganville in Luganville otalTotal Annual nnual Consumption onsum tion of Publicof Public Sector costumers Customers treet and Street lights Lights in Port in Port ila Vila
Figure 2 . Electricity consum tion of ublic sector consumers an street lights
Table 31. National hese electricity ro ections consumption for the ublic sector can be use to re are energy efficiency targets for anuatu. CAGR Growth Growth Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2009 - 2013 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2030 imilar to both the resi ential sector an the commercial an in ustrial sector, ublic sector eman for Residential Sectorelectricity (GWh) shoul 18,420 remain at the24,743 same level33,976 in Port ila52,979. In the comi82,876ng 1 years, overall1.3% ublic sector7% 9% eman shoul gro annually by 3 re resenting a total increase of almost 60 . Commercial and Industrial 39,566 42,292 49,428 60,026 73,149 1.6% 3% 4% Sector (GWh) Public Sector (GWh) 6,228 7,211 8,109 9,294 10,693 2.3% 2% 3% National Electricity 64,214 74,245 91,513 122,300 166,719 1.3% 4% 6% Consumption (GWh)
38 53 s s
ccor in to the pre iousl escri e sectoral pro ections the pro ecte national le el electricit consu ption un er the scenario or the ears an is sho n in a le an i ures an
a le ational electricit consu ption
– – – esi ential ector h) o ercial an n ustrial ector h) u lic ector h) ational lectricit onsu ption h) Figure 29. Projection of national electricity consumption, by end-user sector
lectricit consu ption h) consu ption lectricit ear
esi ential sector h) o ercial n ustrial sector h) u lic sector h)
i ure ro ection o national electricit consu ption en user sector Given the ambitious electrification targets in the NERM i en the a itious electri ication tar ets in the – an ta in into account the 2013–2020,pipeline and takingo pro ects into inance account until the pipeline it of is e pecte that o erall electricit consu ption ill ore 68 projects financedthan ou le until et een 2020, it is an expected histhat ill overall e le initiall co ercial an in ustrial ro th an electricitylater consumption resi ential will upta e more than he share double o resi entialbetween consu ption ill rise pro ressi el ro an initial 2015 and 2030. in This will to be led o total initially electricit by commercial consu ption in and industrial growth, and later by residential uptake. The share of residential consumption will rise progressively, from an initial 30% in 2010 to 50% of total electricity consumption in 2030.
Figure 30. Projected share of national electricity consumption, by end-user sector
speciall in ter s o rural electri ication rate
54
s s s s s
68 Especially in terms of rural electrification rate. he utilities’ technical reports) 39
55 5.5 Comparison and Analysis of Electricity • Comparison of the GGGI BAU scenario with other Projections under Different BAU Scenarios BAU scenarios (PEEP2, NERM as well as a BAU scenario arising directly from past trends observed In order to validate the electricity BAU scenario in the utilities’ technical reports) and a brief review presented in this report, the following comparisons have of their respective assumptions and results; and been carried out: • Comparison of the GGGI BAU scenario with the projected GDP for Vanuatu.
Figure 31. BAU scenarios of GGGI, PEEP2, NERM and utilities
180.0 180.0 160.0 160.0 140.0 140.0 120.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 60.0 80.0 40.0 60.0 20.0 40.0
Electricity consumption (GWh) 0.0
Electricity consumption (GWh) 20.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 - Year 2013 2020 2025 2030
160.0 120.0 140.0 100.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 60.0 60.0 40.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 - 0.0 Electricity consumption (GWh) Electricity consumption (GWh) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
40 56
180.0 180.0 160.0 160.0 140.0 140.0 120.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 100.0 60.0 80.0 40.0 60.0 20.0 40.0
Electricity consumption (GWh) 0.0
Electricity consumption (GWh) 20.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 - Year 2013 2020 2025 2030
160.0 120.0 140.0 100.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 80.0 60.0 60.0 40.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 - 0.0 Electricity consumption (GWh) Electricity consumption (GWh) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
41 56 5.5.1 PEEP2: 5.5.1.1 PEEP2 and GGGI Energy Efficiency BAU Scenarios Below are the main assumptions of the PEEP2 BAU Comparison scenario for electricity consumption, as stated in its The overall level of electricity consumption reached report. 69 in 2030 projected in the PEEP2 BAU scenarios is very similar to the ones presented in this document. 1. Residential: • As of 2009, 80% of the urban households were The main differences are due to the hypothesis taken electrified and 11% of the rural households were for residential consumption in rural areas (per capita electrified. For the year 2013, it is assumed that the consumption), and the growth rates of household electrification rate for urban (80%) and rural (11%) electrified. Moreover, commercial and industrial growth households remain the same. By 2030, it is assumed would occur only after a certain level of electrification that 100% of the urban households and 50% of and development was achieved. This will certainly the rural households would be electrified. For the also be linked to the price of electricity, which should years 2020 and 2025, electrification rate of 25% is eventually start lowering slowly 70 by 2020 with the assumed. commissioning of renewable energy power plants. • Households are considered to be the “domestic”, “pre-paid”, “5A” and “10A” customers in the 5.5.2 NERM UNELCO technical reports. Below are the main assumptions of the NERM BAU • No data is available on per capita consumption of scenario for electricity consumption: urban and rural households, hence it is assumed that an urban household consumes three times as much • Households are the “domestic” and “pre-paid” as rural households. accounts as recorded, i.e., far lower growth than in • A growth rate of 5% for a five-year period is the other projections in UNELCO’s annual technical considered for projecting electricity consumption report. per household for both urban and rural households. • Household growth rate is estimated at 2.5% annually. 2. Commercial & Industrial: • There are two new connections per month in each • No data is available on the share of commercial concession. electricity consumption to the total electricity • Existing households consume an average of 35 consumption, hence it is assumed that about 10% kWh/month in Port Vila; 24.5 kWh/month in electricity consumption (4% industrial and 6% Malekula; 44kWh/month in Luganville; and 33 kWh/ others) is in the industrial and others categories, month in Tanna. and the remaining 55% electricity consumption is in • Newly connected households consume 18 kWh/ the commercial category. The proportion of sales to month, but increase consumption faster than commercial category is assumed to remain the same existing households. until 2013. • The annual increase in demand for existing • The built-up area of offices and hotels is assumed households is 4%, and for new households it starts to be 150,000 square meters (sq.m) for the year in 2011 at 11% and decreases until 4% in 2030. 2013, and so the specific electricity consumption • Commercial customers and public administration works out to be about 205 kWh/sq.m. To project the demands are taken from the UNELCO 2010 electricity consumption in the commercial sector technical report. for the horizon period, a year-on-year growth rate • The annual demand growth for commercial of 5% is assumed for the built-up area, while specific customers and public administration is 4%. electricity consumption is assumed to remain at the same level of 205 kWh/sq.m. • For the financial year 2013, the share of sales to the 5.5.2.1 NERM Projections’ Comparison with Utility industrial category and others category is assumed Data Between 2010 and 2013 to be 4% and 6%, respectively. For the horizon The projections in the NERM 2013–2020 period, the share of sales to both these categories is underestimated the growth rate of the number of assumed to remain at the same level. new residential clients. According to UNELCO and VUI technical report of 2013, the annual number of residential client experienced 5% growth rate during the period 2010–2013.
69 International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development 70 Note that the magnitude of any decline in tariffs is difficult to predict as Bank, 2015). future petroleum fuel prices are unknown.
42 Table 32. Comparison between the NERM 2013–2020 projections for the growth in the number of residential clients and the actual growth reflected by utility data
CAGR between 2010 & 2013 Annual Number of Residential Clients' Growth NERM Utility Data Port Vila 2% 6% Tanna 8% 11% Malekula 6% 1% Luganville 5% 1% National 3% 5%
Sources: GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013; UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
The NERM also largely overestimated the projection of annual demand growth rates (see Table 33). The NERM’s projection for the growth of annual demand among households was 8.4%, while the actual growth rate between 2010 and 2013 was -0.4%. Similarly, for the public, commercial and industrial sectors, NERM’s projection for the growth of annual demand was 4%, while the actual growth rate between 2010 and 2013 was 1%.
Table 33. Comparison between the NERM 2013–2020 projections for the growth in demand and the actual growth reflected by utility data
CAGR between 2010 & 2013 Growth of Annual Demand NERM Utility Data Just Households 7.2% -0.5% Port Vila Public & Commercial/Industrial Sectors 4.0% 0.6% Total 4.3% 0.3% Just Households 16.5% 8.2% Tanna Public & Commercial/Industrial Sectors 4.1% 23.8% Total 9.9% 15.4% Just Households 17.2% 10.1% Malekula Public & Commercial/Industrial Sectors 3.9% -0.9% Total 7.2% 3.2% Just Households 11.7% -1.3% Luganville Public & Commercial/Industrial Sectors 4.0% 2.8% Total 5.2% 1.6% Households 8.4% -0.4% National Public & Commercial/Industrial Sectors 4.0% 1.0% Total 4.5% 0.5%
Sources: NERM projections; UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
43 5.5.2.2 NERM and GGGI Energy Efficiency BAU Scenarios 5.6 Impact of the Non-Achievement of NERM Comparison 2013–2020 Targets In the NERM 2013–2020, the projected level of electricity consumption in 2030 is much lower than In the NERM 2013–2020, the targets set in terms the one calculated in this report. This is mostly due of electrification rates are ambitious. Currently, the to the electrification rate estimated in the scenarios number of projects planned and financed up to 2020 put forward in this report, and thus the growth rate of will only be able to partially achieve the set targets. new connections. Different growth rates are assumed New projects will have to be identified and funded if the for commercial and public consumption in this report, targets are to be fully met by 2020. while the NERM adopted a flat s s 4% growth rate for all commercial and public consumption in all concessions, Achieving all of the NERM’s electrification targets would s s based on the utility trends. result in: (1) a ~65% electrification rate in Vanuatu, Sources: NERM projections; UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,”which 2013; means and the VUI, electrification “Annual Technical of Report,”around 2013. 36,000 These projections show that if current trends are households; (2) an increase of ~70% in commercial and followed5 .and5.2. 2in theNE absenceRM and GofG interventionsGI Energy Effic (especiallyiency BAU S cenaindustrialrios Comp electricityarison consumption; and (3) an increase of in terms of financing for rural electrification), overall ~50% in public sector consumption. 71 electricity consumption will– increase, but at the same rate it has been happening these last 5 years, i.e., If only 50% of the NERM’s electrification target for significantly less growth than in the other projections. households are met in 2030, the grid electrification rate in Vanuatu would be ~38% in 2030 and the BAU 5.5.3 BAU Scenario and GDP Projections projected residential electricity consumption would Comparison decrease by 35%. Overall, only achieving 50% household There is not always a strong correlation between GDP electrification would represent a decrease of 14% of the growth and the evolution of electricity consumption in BAU projection for total electricity consumption. In this Vanuatu and past projections for GDP real growth have scenario, the total electricity consumption would still not always been very accurate. For example, historic increase by ~110% between 2015 and 2030, compared data from utility reports shows that between 2010 s and to s an increase of ~180% if the NERM electrification 2013, there was no significant increase in electricity targets are fully achieved. consumption while the GDP was increasing (see Figure 32). Figure 32. Electricity consumption under BAU scenarios and GDP projections
Source: GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013; International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015); UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; VUI, “Annual Technical GoV, Report,” “Vanuatu 2013; National and World Energy Bank’s GDPRoad data. –2020,” July 19, 2013; Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report UNELCO, “Ann l Technical Report,” 2013; VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013 World Bank’
71 It is expected that public sector consumption will increase significantly through the development of provincial centers. 59 44 The NERM targets for the share of renewable energy in electricity generation are also ambitious with 40% in 2015 and 60% in 2020, while the Vanuatu INDC proposes an increase to 90% by 2030. These renewable energy targets have implications for the consumption of petroleum and have been taken into account in the above petroleum consumption projections.
If Vanuatu does not achieve the NERM targets or the INDC target, petroleum consumption projections will increase compared to the BAU scenario. In the case where only two-thirds of the targets are achieved, i.e., 29% renewable energy in 2015, 40% in 2020 and 60% in 2030, this would result in a 90% increase in the BAU projection of cumulative petroleum consumption for electricity generation by 2030 (this increase is projected to be 90% of BAU). With only two-thirds of the renewable energy for electricity generation targets achieved, the annual petroleum consumption for electricity would increase by 24% between 2015 and 2030, instead of the 62% decrease currently projected under the BAU.
45 46 References
Australian Aid, “Lighting Vanuatu: Independent Completion Report,” October 14, 2015.
Castlerock Consultants, Vanuatu: Efate Geothermal Power and Island-Ring Grid Development Framework (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2011).
David Butcher and Associates, “Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” April 24, 2013.
Department of Customs and Inland Revenue, GoV, “Petroleum product import 2010–2015,” 2015.
DoE, “Update on the Energy Sector in Vanuatu,” 2015.
DoE, “Vanuatu Rural Electrification Project,” July 28, 2015.
DoE and United Nations Development Programme, “NAMA on Rural Electrification in Vanuatu,” 2015, http://www. undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/Environment%20and%20Energy/MDG%20Carbon%20Facility/NAMA%20 Final%20Vanuatu.pdf.
Econoler International, “PEEP1: Promoting Energy Efficiency in the acificP (Phase 1),” November 16, 2012.
Felix Gooneratne, “Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific: Project Proposal – Phase 2,” June 24, 2013.
GGGI, “Vanuatu Energy Efficiency – BAU Projections for Electricity,” 2015.
GoV, “Republic of Vanuatu: Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC),” September 21, 2015, http:// www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Vanuatu/1/VANUATU%20%20INDC%20 UNFCCC%20Submission.pdf.
GoV, “Vanuatu National Energy Road Map 2013–2020,” July 19, 2013.
Hale and Twomey, and David Butcher and Associates, “Draft Final Report: Options for Increasing the Efficiency of Vanuatu’s Oil and Gas Supply Chain,” November 2012.
IMF, “Vanuatu: 2015 Country Report No. 15/149; May 20, 2015,” June 9, 2015.
International Institute for Energy Conservation, Promoting Energy Efficiency in the Pacific (Phase 2): Final Report (Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank, 2015).
IRENA, “Vanuatu: Renewables Readiness Assessment,” June 2015, http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/ Publications/IRENA_RRA_Vanuatu_2015.pdf.
National Advisory Board, GoV, “National Advisory Board on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction – NAMA,” October 15, 2015.
Peter Johnston, “SPREP – Pacific Regional Energy Assessment 2004,” November 5, 2005.
Tate Hanington, “Wood Energy a Reliant Energy Source for Vanuatu,” SPC Newsletter, December 1, 2012.
UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013
URA, “Monthly Energy Market Report – September 2015,” October 31, 2015.
VNSO, “Quarterly Statistical Indicators: Republic of Vanuatu – January–March 2015,” June 26, 2015, http://www. vnso.gov.vu/index.php/document-library?view=download&fileId=4257.
47 VNSO, “Vanuatu Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2010,” January 28, 2013.
VNSO, “2009 National Population and Housing Census,” July 2, 2011.
VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013
World Bank, “Rural Electrification Project: Implementation Status & Results Report,” 10 December 2015, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/221461468318266762/pdf/ISR-Disclosable -P150908-12-10-2015-1449724124185.pdf.
World Bank, “Pacific Regional Energy Assessment,” August 25, 1992.
48 2 49 Appendix - Analysis of UNELCO and VUI Technical Reports of 2013
1. National-Level Analysis
Customers Per Capita Electricity Consumption The overall number of customers grew 3.3% per year on In 2014, per capita electricity consumption in Vanuatu average, from 12,645 in 2009 to 14,908 customers in was 255 kWh/year, one of the lowest per capita 2013. electricity consumption rates among the Pacific Island countries. This was due to both very low electrification The numbers of customers by end-users’ groups rates, and low commercial and industrial development. remained roughly the same. The sales distribution was 87% residential customers, 10% commercial and industrial customers, and 3% public sector customers.
Figure 33. Distribution of the total number of electricity customers, by end-user sector 449
1466
12993
Residential Commercial / Industry Public & Street light
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Figure 34. Evolution of per capita electricity consumption in the Pacific Island countries
3000
2 00
2000
1 00
kWh ear 1000
00
0 2000 2001 2002 2003 200 200 200 200 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201
Cook Islands iji Vanuatu Tonga Sa oa NG
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual igure Technical 3 . E olution Report,” 2013; o per and VUI,capita “Annual electricity Technical Report,”consu ption 2013. in the aci ic Island countries
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
50
s s s
The a erage consu ption gro th per consu er or oth the residential sector and the co ercial and industry sector as ound to e negati e. This as calculated ased on the e olution o annual electricity consu ption and the nu er o consu ers y end user sector. This une pected trend could e e plained y the increase in electricity access o lo inco e households lo inco e custo ers consu e less , and also possi ly y i pro ed energy e iciency o ne appliances.
Ta le 3 . CAGRs o a erage electricity consu ption y end user sector, 2009 2013
s s s s –
Residential Sector 2.2
Co ercial Industrial Sector 0.2
u lic Sector Street Lights 1.0
s
National electricity sales ro 2009 to 201 in Vanuatu are sho n in Ta le 3 .
Ta le 3 . National electricity consu ption
s
Residential Sector MWh 1 ,092 1 , 20 1 , 1 , 9 1 ,21
64 Average Annual Electricity Consumption of End Users Sales The average consumption growth per consumer for National electricity sales from 2009 to 2014 in Vanuatu both the residential sector and the commercial and are shown in Table 35. industry sector was found to be negative. This was calculated based on the evolution of annual electricity Despite the decrease in consumption of both residential consumption and the number of consumers by end-user users and commercial and industry users, sales grew sector. This unexpected trend could be explained by the by 1.3% per year between 2009 and 2014, on average. increase in electricity access of low-income households This increase could be explained by the increase of (low-income customers consume less), and also possibly customers. by improved energy efficiency of new appliances. The distribution of sales remained more or less the same between 2009 and 2013: 63% for the commercial and industry sector; 28% for the residential sector; and 9% for the public sector.
Table 34. CAGRs of average electricity consumption by end-user sector, 2009-2013
CAGRs of Average Electricity Consumption (2009–2013)
Residential Sector -2.2% CCommercial/Industrial Sector -0.2% Public Sector & Street Lights 1.0%
Table 35. National electricity consumption
National Electricity Consumption 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Residential Sector (MWh) 17,092 18,420 17,865 17,759 18,217 Commercial/Industrial Sector (MWh) 37,331 39,566 39,186 39,942 40,952 Public Sector & Street Lights (MWh) 5,432 6,228 6,593 6,338 6,184 Total (MWh) 59,855 64,214 63,644 64,039 65,354
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Figure 35. Electricity sales distribution, by end-user sector in 2009–2013
9%
28%
Residential (MWh) 63% Commercial / Industry (MWh) Public & Street light (MWh)
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
51
2. Residential Sector Analysis et een 200 and 2013, the o erall nu er o re idential cu to er o UNELCO and VUI increa ed ro 10, 0 to 12, 3, particularl in the ort Vila and Tanna conce ion T o a or rea on or the Customers increa e in connection ere 1 the ne net or o e ten ion to populated area in ort Vila and Between 2009 and 2013, the overall number of The higher increase in Tanna compared to Malekula Tanna; and 2 the e pan ion o the conce ion oundarie in ort Vila, Tanna and ale ula in 2012, residential customers of UNELCO and VUI increased was due to network extensions to larger community hich re ulted in electricit net or e ten ion The hi her increa e in Tanna co pared to ale ula a from 10,907 to 12,993, particularly in the Port Vila settlements, which enabled more people to connect. due to net or e ten ion to lar er co unit ettle ent , hich ena led ore people to connect and Tanna concessions. Two major reasons for the increase in connections were: (1) the new network of During the period 2009–2013, the geographical extensions to populated areas in Port Vila and Tanna; distribution of UNELCO and VUI customers remained and (2) the expansion ofTa le the concession 3 CA R boundaries o re idential in cu to er similar conce ion,with 74% of 200 customers–2013 in Port Vila, 16% in Port Vila, Tanna and Malekula in 2012, which resulted in Luganville, 6% in Tanna and 4% in Malekula. electricity network extension. Residential CAGR, – Table 36. CAGRs of residential customers by concession, 2009–20132009 2013
Port Vila 3.9% Residential CAGR 2009 - 2013 Malekula 1.0% Port Vila 3.9%
MalekulaTanna 7.0% 1.0% Tanna 7.0% Luganville 1.6% Luganville 1.6%
Sources: UNELCO, “AnnualSources: Technical UNELCO, Report,” “Annual 2013; and Technical VUI, “Annual Report,” Technical 2013; Report,” and VUI, 2013. “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Figure 36. Number of residential customers by concession, 2009–2013
12000 10000 000 000 000 2000 0
No o Re idential Cu to er o Re idential No 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical i ure Report,” 3 Nu er 2013; and o VUI, re idential “Annual Technical cu to er Report,” 2013. conce ion, 200 –2013
ource UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013 Figure 37. Geographical distribution of electricity customers from the residential sector
urin the period 200 –2013, the eo raphical16% di tri ution o UNELCO and VUI cu to er re ained i ilar ith o cu to er in ort Vila, 1 in Lu an ille, in Tanna and in ale ula
6%
4% 74% 66
Port Villa Malekula Tanna Luganville
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
52
1
Average Electricity Consumption In terms of geographical distribution, Port ort Vila Vila had ale ulathe AnalyzingTanna Lu an ille the evolution of the residential sector’s highest per capita consumption with 1,610 kWh/year average consumption and the number of new users (134 kWh/month). Average electricity consumption in gives the energy profile of new customers and the i ure 3 . eo raphical distri ution o electricit custo ers ro the residential sector Luganville, Tanna and Malekula was 70% (1,054kWh/ effect that new customers had on overall average year), 20% (375 kWh/year)Sources: UNELCO, and 30% “Annual (534 Technical kWh/year) Report,” of 2013;electricity and VUI, “Annual consumption. Technical ForReport,” example, 2013. the CAGR in Port Vila, respectively. Malekula was 1% between 2009 and 2011, yet over the same period the average consumption CAGR was 8.2%. Contrastingly, average electricity consumption decreased in both Port Vila and Tanna, which In ter s o eo raphical distri ution, ort Vila had the hi hestexperienced per capita higher consu ption growth in ith customers, 1, 10 over the same h ear 13 h onth . A era e electricit consu ptionperiod. in Lu an ille, Tanna and ale ula as 0 1,0 h ear , 20 3 h ear and 30 3 h ear o ort Vila, respecti el .
Figure 38. Average annual consumption of the residential sector by concession, 2009–2013
2 00
2000
1 00
1000 h ear
00
0 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual i ure Technical 3 . A era e Report,” annual 2013; and consu ption VUI, “Annual Technicalo the residential Report,” 2013. sector concession, 200 –2013
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Table 37. CAGRs of residential per capita consumption and residential customer number Anal in the e olution o the residential sector’s a era e consu ption and the nu er o ne users Residential Per Capita Consumption Residential Customer Number CAGR, i es the ener pro ile o ne custo ersCAGR, 2009–2013 and the e ect that ne custo ers had2009–2013 on o erall a era e electricit consu ption. or e a ple, the CA R in ale ula as 1 et een 200 and 2011, et o er Port Vila -2.8% 3.9% the sa e period the a era e consu ption CA R as .2 . Contrastin l , a era e electricit Malekula 8.2% 1.0% Tanna -0.2% 7.0% Luganville 0.2% 1.6% 67
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
53 Sales From 2009 to 2013, 85% of the residential sector’s From 2009 to 2013, total residential electricity electricity sales were in Port Vila and 12% in Santo consumption increased annually by 1.3% with the (Luganville), leaving only 1% and 2% in Malekula and majority of the demand coming from urban areas. Tanna, respectively.
The different concessions had different rates of electricity sales growth, with rural areas experiencing higher growth than urban areas. This could be linked to the fact that households in urban areas already had, on average, more electrical appliances than rural households.
Figure 39. Geographical distribution of residential electricity sales in 2013
2% 1% 12%
85%
Port Villa Malekula Tanna Luganville
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Table 38. CAGRs of residential electricity salesTa le 3 CA Rs o residential electricit sales
Residential Average Consumption Residential Customer Residential Sales CAGR, – – CAGR, 2009–2013 Number CAGR, 2009–2013 2009–2013–
Port ort Vila Vila 2 -2.8% 3 3.9% 1 1% Malekula 8.2% 1.0% 9.3% ale ula 2 1 0 3 Tanna -0.2% 7.0% 6.8% Tanna 0 2 0 Luganville 0.2% 1.6% 1.8% Lu an ille 0 2 1 1 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Figure 40. Total electricity consumption in the residential sector by concession, 2009-2013
20000 1 000 1 000 1 000 12000 10000 000 000 000 2000 0 200 2010 2011 2012 2013 Electricit Electricit Consu ption h
ale ula Tanna ort Vila Lu an ille
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual i ure Technical 0 Total Report,” electricit 2013; and consu ption VUI, “Annual in Technical the residential Report,” 2013. sector concession, 200 2013
54 ources UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013
ro 200 to 2013, total residential electricit consu ption increased annuall 1 3 ith the a orit o the de and co in ro ur an areas
69
er Capita and Total Consu ption Total and Capita er Total Consu ption Total 74 2 0 200 1 0 100 0 0 20000 1 000 10000 000 0 2013 2013 2012 2012
2011 2011 2010 2010 No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption 2009 200 Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption in Tanna in Consu ption Electricit Industrial and Co ercial 0 Co ercial Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption in Lu an ille
8000 6000 4000 2000
12000 10000 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 23 230 22
Nu er o Clients o Nu er Clients o Nu er Consu ption Capita er
Sector’s Electricity Consumption Analysis Consumption Electricity Sector’s
er Capita and Total Consu ption Total and Capita er Consumption Total 300 2 0 200 1 0 100 0 0 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 33000 32000 31000 30000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Consu ption Total 200 200 Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption ort Vila ort Consu ption Electricit Industrial and Co ercial 0 Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption in ale ula in Consu ption Electricit Industrial and Co ercial
000 000 000 2000 0
12000 10000 1000 1200 11 0 1100 10 0
Nu er o Clients er Capita Consu ption Capita er Clients o Nu er Nu er o Clients o Nu er
Synthesis of the Residential Sector’s Electricity Consumption Analysis
55 3. Commercial and Industrial Sector Analysis
Customers Commercial an n ustrial Sector Analysis Between 2009 and 2013, the number of UNELCO and VUI commercial and industrial customers increased from 1,320Customers to 1,466, which means a CAGR of 1.9%.
et een 200 and 2013, the nu er o UNELCO and VUI co ercial and industrial custo ers Figure 41. Numberincreased of commercial ro 1,320 and to 1industrial, , hich customers eans by a CA Rconcession, o 1. . 2009–2013
1 00 1200 1000 00 00 00 Custo ers 200 0
No. o No. Co ercial Industrial 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
i ure 1. Nu er o co ercial and industrial custo ers concession, 200 –2013 Sources: UNELCO, “AnnualSources: Technical UNELCO, Report,” “Annual2013; and Technical VUI, “Annual Report,” Technical 2013; Report,” and VUI, 2013. “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
Figure 41 i ure shows 1 the sho s high thenumber hi h nu er of commercial o co ercial and and industrialBetween custo ers 2009 and in ort2013, Vila the in geographical relation to other distribution industrial concessioncustomers areas in Port. Vila in relation to other of commercial and industrial customers remained concession areas. similar. As of 2013, the distribution was as follows: 79% et een 200 and 2013, the eo raphical distri ution ofo commercialco ercial and and industrial industrial custo ers customers were in Port re ained si ilar. As o 2013, the distri ution as as ollo sVila, :17% ino Luganville,co ercial 2%and in industrial Tanna and 2% in Malekula. custo ers ere in ort Vila, 1 in Lu an ille, 2 in Tanna and 2 in ale ula. This distri ution closel atches the distri ution o residential custo ers. This distribution closely matches the distribution of residential customers.
Figure 42. Geographical distribution of electricity customers1 from the commercial and industrial sector
2 2
17% 2% 2%
ort Vila ale ula Tanna 79%Lu an ille
i ure 2. eo raphical distri ution o electricit custo ers ro the co ercial and industrial sector Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Port Villa Malekula A era e Electricity Consumption Tanna Luganville ort Vila had the hi hest a era e electricit consu ption ith 32 h ear 2, 00 h onth . Sources: UNELCO,A era e “Annual electricit Technical consu ptionReport,” 2013; and in Lu an ille, VUI, “Annual TannaTechnical and Report,” ale ula 2013. as 0 1 h ear , 30 10 h ear and 30 h ear o the consu ption o ort Vila, respecti el .
71
56 Average Electricity Consumption Port Vila had the highest average electricity consumption with 32MWh/year (2,600 kWh/month). Average electricity consumption in Luganville, Tanna and Malekula was 50% (16MWh/year), 30% (10MWh/ year) and 30% (9MWh/year) of the consumption of Port Vila, respectively.
Figure 43. Average annual consumption of the commercial and industrial sector by concession, 2009–2013
3 000 30000 2 000 20000 1 000 10000 h ear 000 0 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
i ure 3 A era e annual con u ption o the co ercial and indu trial ector conce ion, 200 – Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. 2013 ource UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013 With the exception of Port Vila, average electricity consumption increased between 2009 and 2013. In Port Vila, ith the average the e cept electricityion o ort consumption Vila, a era e decreased. electricit con u ption increa ed et een 200 and 2013 In ort Vila, the a era e electricit con u ption decrea ed Sales In theSales five years from 2009 to 2013, the distribution of sales remained the same. In 2013, 89% of electricity salesIn were the i ein Port ear Vila ro and 200 10% into Santo 2013 ,(Luganville), the di tri ution o ale re ained the a e In 2013, o leavingelectricit only 1% ale in both ere Malekula in ort andVila Tanna.and 10 in anto Lu an ille , lea in onl 1 in oth ale ula and Tanna
Figure 44. Geographical distribution of commercial and industrial electricity sales in 2013 1 10 1 1% 1% 10%
89% ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille Port Villa i ure eo raphical di tri ution o co ercial and indu trial electricit ale in 2013 Malekula ource UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013 Tanna Luganville The di erent conce ion had een electricit ale ro at di erent pace Tanna and Lu an ille e perienced hi her co ercial and indu trial ale ro th, and thi a pro a l ecau e o an Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. increa e in the nu er o cu to er and the increa e in a era e electricit con u ption
Ta le 3 CA R o co ercial and indu trial electricit ale Commercial an n ustrial um er o Commercial Commercial n ustrial Sales A era e Consumption n ustrial Customers CA – CA – CA – ort Vila 1 0 2 2 57 ale ula 2 3 1 0 Tanna 23 13
72 The different concessions had seen electricity sales grow at different paces. Tanna and Luganville experienced higher commercial and industrial sales growth, and this was probably because of an increase in the number of customers and the increase in average electricity consumption.
Table 39. CAGRs of commercial and industrial electricity sales
Commercial and Industrial Number of Commercial & Commercial & Industrial Average Consumption CAGR, Industrial Customers CAGR, Sales CAGR, 2009–2013 2009–2013 2009–2013 Port Vila 1.5% -0.7% 2.2% Malekula 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% Tanna 23.8% 13.7% 8.9% Luganville 4.8% 3.6% 1.2%
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Lu an ille 3 1 2 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Figure 45. Commercial and industrial sales by concession, 2009-2013
000 0000 3 000 30000 2 000 20000 1 000 10000 000 0 Electricit Electricit Con u ption h 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
i ure Co ercial and indu trial ale conce ion, 200 2013 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual ource Technical UNELCO, Report,” 2013; “Annual and Technical VUI, “Annual Report,” Technical 2013; Report,” and VUI, 2013. “Annual Technical Report,” 2013
Even thoughE en commercial thou h co ercial and industrial and indu trial sales in ale rural in rural area tron l increa ed et een 200 and 2013, areas stronglythe increased re ained ne li i lebetween in 2009 co pari on and 2013, to electricit they ale in ur an area , and particularl in ort Vila remained negligibleThe o erall in co ercial comparison and to indu trial electricity ale sales increa ed 1 annuall , repre entin a 10 ro th rate et een 200 and 2013 in urban areas, and particularly in Port Vila. The overall commercial and industrial sales increased by 1.6% annually, representing a 10% growth rate between 2009 and 2013.
58
73
er Capita and Total Consu ption Total and Capita er Total Consu ption Total 74 2 0 200 1 0 100 0 0 20000 1 000 10000 000 0 2013 2013 2012 2012
2011 2011 2010 2010 No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption 2009 200 Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption in Tanna in Consu ption Electricit Industrial and Co ercial 0 Co ercial Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption in Lu an ille
8000 6000 4000 2000
12000 10000 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 23 230 22
Nu er o Clients o Nu er Clients o Nu er Consu ption Capita er
Sector’s Electricity Consumption Analysis Consumption Electricity Sector’s
er Capita and Total Consu ption Total and Capita er Consumption Total 300 2 0 200 1 0 100 0 0 3 000 3 000 3 000 3 000 33000 32000 31000 30000 2 000 2 000 2 000 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Consu ption Total 200 200 Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption ort Vila ort Consu ption Electricit Industrial and Co ercial 0 Co ercial and Industrial Electricit Consu ption in ale ula in Consu ption Electricit Industrial and Co ercial
000 000 000 2000 0
12000 10000 1000 1200 11 0 1100 10 0
Nu er o Clients er Capita Consu ption Capita er Clients o Nu er Nu er o Clients o Nu er
Synthesis of the Commercial and Industrial Sector’s Electricity Consumption Analysis
59 4. Public Sector Analysis
Customers Between u lic 2009 and Sector 2013, A thenalysis number of public sector customers increased from 308 to 335, which is a growth rate ofCustomers 2.7%. Over this period, public sector customers in Malekula increased by 6%. et een 200 and 2013, the nu er o pu lic sector custo ers increased ro 30 to 33 , hich is a ro th rate o 2. . O er this period, pu lic sector custo ers in ale ula increased . Table 40. CAGRs of public sector customers by concession, 2009–2013
Ta le 0. CA Rs o pu lic sector cPublicusto ers CAGR 2009 concession - 2013 , 200 –2013 Public Sector Port Vila 1.6% CAGR, Malekula 20096.2%–2013 Tanna Port Vila -0.8%1.6% LuganvilleMalekula 1.5%6.2% Tanna -0.8% Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI,Luganville “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.1.5% Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Figure 46. Number of of public sector customers by concession, 2009–2013
2 0
200
1 0
100
0
0 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
i ure . Nu er o o pu lic sector custo ers concession, 200 –2013 Sources: UNELCO, “AnnualSource Technicals: UNELCO, Report,” “Annual 2013; andTechnical VUI, “Annual Report,” Technical 2013 Report,”; and VUI,2013. “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
ro 200 to 2013, the eo raphic distri ution o pu lic sector custo ers re ained si ilar: 1 o pu lic sector custo ers ere in ort Vila, 2 in Lu an ille, in Tanna, and in ale ula. The share o pu lic sector custo ers in ale ula and Tanna as si ilar to the residential distri ution, hereas the proportion in Lu an ille as hi her than the residential user ase.
75 60 From 2009 to 2013, the geographic distribution of public sector customers remained similar: 61% of public sector customers were in Port Vila, 25% in Luganville, 7% in Tanna, and 7% in Malekula. The share of public sector customers in Malekula and Tanna was similar to the residential distribution, whereas the proportion in Luganville was higher than the residential user base.
Figure 47. Geographical distribution of electricity customers from the public sector
25%
61% 7%
7% 2 Port Villa Malekula Tanna Luganville 1 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Average Electricity Consumption Port Vila had the highest average electricity ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille consumption with 23MWh/year (1,900 kWh/month) followed by Luganvile i ure with 18. eo raphical MWh/year, anddistri ution 5MWh/ o electricit custo ers ro the pu lic sector Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. year for both Tanna and Malekula.
BetweenA era e 2009 and E lectricity2013, the publicConsumption sector’s average electricity consumption increased by 1% per year. ort Vila had the hi hest a era e electricit consu ption ith 23 h ear 1, 00 h onth Figure 48. ollo ed Average annual Lu an ile consumption ith of 1 the h ear, public sector and by concession, h ear 2009–2013 or oth Tanna and ale ula.
30 2 20 1 10
h ear 0
Electricit Consu ption Electricit 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
i ure . A era e annual consu ption o the pu lic sector concession, 200 –2013 Sources: UNELCO, “AnnualSources: Technical UNELCO, Report,” 2013;“Annual and Technical VUI, “Annual Report,” Technical 2013; Report,” and 2013. VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
et een 200 and 2013, the pu lic sector’s a era e electricit consu ption increased 1 per ear.
Sales
ro 200 to 2013, the sales distri ution re ained si ilar, ith 3 o electricit sales in ort Vila, 23 in Santo Lu an ille , and 2 in ale ula and Tanna.
61 23
2 2 3
ort Vila ale ula Tanna Lu an ille
i ure . eo raphical distri ution o pu lic sector electricit sales in 2013 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
76 Sales As shown in Figure 50, electricity sales for public From 2009 to 2013, the sales distribution remained sector customers were significantly higher in urban similar, with 73% of electricity sales in Port Vila, 23% in areas. Between 2009 and 2013, public sector demand Santo (Luganville), and 2% in Malekula and Tanna. increased overall by 2% annually, representing a total growth of 14%.
Figure 49. Geographical distribution of public sector electricity sales in 2013
23%
2% 2% 73%
Port Villa Malekula Tanna Luganville
Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013.
With the exception of Tanna, electricity sales grew at similar rate between concessions. In Tanna, public sector sales increased because of increasing per capita consumption.
Table 41. CAGRs of public sector electricity sales Public Sector Public Sector Public Sector Sales Average Customers CAGR, CAGR, 2009–2013 Consumption ith the e ception o Tanna, electricit sales re at si ilar rate et een concessions2009–2013 In Tanna, pu lic sector sales increased ecause o increasin per capitaCAGR, consu ption 2009–2013 Port Vila 2.1% 0.4% 1.6% Ta le 1 CA Rs o pu lic sector electricit sales u lic Sector Malekula 1.4% -4.5% u lic Sector6.2% u lic Sector Sales A era e Customers CA – Consumption Tanna 6.4% 7.3% CA –-0.8% CA – Luganville ort Vila 2.9%2 1 0 1.4% 1 1.5% ale ula 1 2 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,”Tanna 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 3 2013. 0 Lu an ille 2 1 1 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013; and VUI, “Annual Technical Report,” 2013. Figure 50. Public sector electricity sales by concession, 2009–2013
000 000 000 000 000 3000 2000
Electricit Electricit ales h 1000 0 200 2010 2011 2012 2013
ale ula Tanna ort Vila Lu an ille
i ure 0 u lic sector electricit sales concession, 200 –2013 Sources: UNELCO, “Annual ources Technical UNELCO, Report,” “Annual2013; and Technical VUI, “Annual Report,” Technical 2013; and Report,” VUI, “Annual2013. Technical Report,” 2013
62 As sho n in i ure 0, electricit sales or pu lic sector custo ers ere si ni icantl hi her in ur an areas et een 200 and 2013, pu lic sector de and increased o erall 2 annuall , representin a total ro th o 1
77
Total Consu ption h Consu ption Total Total Cnu eru ption h Cnu eru ption Total
120 100 0 0 0 20 0 1 00 1 0 1 00 1 0 1 00 13 0 1300 12 0 1200 78 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011
2010 2010 N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh) Total No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh) Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption u lic u lic Sector Electricit Consu ption Tanna in u lic u lic Sector Electricit Consu ption Lu an ille in 200 200
0 0
10 30 2 20 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 20 10
Consu ption Consu ption
Nu er o Clients er Capita Annual Annual Capita er Clients o Nu er Nu er o Clients er Capita Annual Annual Capita er Clients o Nu er
Total Consu ption h Consu ption Total Total Consu ption h Consu ption Total 12 12 122 120 11 11 11 112 110 Sector’s Electricity Consumption Analysis Consumption Electricity Sector’s
200 000 00 00 00 200 000 3 00 2013 2013 2012 2012 2011 2011 2010 2010 No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh) Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption No. of Client Capita Annual Consumption (kWh/month) Per Consumption (MWHh) Total N o client o N h onth Consu ption Annual Capita er h Total Consu ption u lic Sector Electricit Electricit Sector Consu ption u lic ale ula u lic u lic Sector Electricit Consu ption ort in Vila 200 200 0 0
2 20 1 10 0
2 0 200 1 0 100 Consu ption
Consu ption
Nu er o Clients er Capita Annual Annual Capita er Clients o Nu er Nu er o Clients er Capita Annual Annual Capita er Clients o Nu er
Synthesis of the Public Sector’s Electricity Consumption Analysis
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