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Pacific Economic Monitor – December 2019

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Pacific Economic Monitor – December 2019 Pacific Economic Monitor December 2019 www.adb.org/pacmonitor The Monitor provides an update of developments in Pacific economies and DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES IN explores topical policy issues. SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES of ADB's developing member Contents ­ countries classified as SIDS are in the Pacifica Highlights 1 of the Pacific SIDS are further International and regional developments 3 classified as fragile and conflict-aected Country economic issues 5 situations (FCAS), reflecting thin capacities for public service delivery Policy briefs: and broader governance Addressing the needs of small island developing states . FCAS cuto score (on a scale of 24 to ) in ADB's country performance Mapping fragility in the Pacific 28 assessments Atoll nations: Key takeaways from the frontlines of climate change 34 Poverty reduction challenges: Insights from Papua New Guinea 36 Elevated cost structures: Heightened Economic indicators 40 High costs of living and vulnerability: service delivery wipe out per On a scale of to , capita incomes that are SIDS average . nominally high in most SIDS on the United Nations’ Economic Vulnerability % lower average per capita incomes for the Index, almost double SIDS vs. non-SIDS that for non-SIDS (.) ADB developing member Highlights countries (adjusted for y Trade conflict continues to weigh down purchasing power parity) on the global economy. Prospects for global growth continue to weaken as the ongoing trade conflict slows growth in major economies, including the People’s Republic of China. The weak external environment translates into a softer 2019–2020 outlook for the Pacific through subdued exports, Key elements of a dierentiated approach to SIDS: including from Fiji. y Focusing on the development needs Concessional financing with Accelerating responses to climate complementary technical change and disaster risk, of small island developing states. assistance to address pressing particularly in atoll nations and other The complex interplay among geographic investment needs while low-lying SIDS and physical challenges faced by small maintaining debt sustainability island developing states manifests in Developing institutional Investing in people—including through elevated cost structures and heightened capacity over the long term quality education, improved health services, economic vulnerability that severely to strengthen governance better social protection, responsive gender equality policies—for broader-based constrain development prospects. economic empowerment Compounded by fragility from thin a This issue covers Pacific SIDS: the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, institutional capacities for effective Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. The th—Niue—became a member country in March governance and elevated climate change and will be included in ADB’s macroeconomic surveillance starting . Only Maldives and Timor-Leste (moved to Southeast risks—a clear “threat multiplier”—these Asia, per government's request eective October ) are not in the Pacific. challenges call for a differentiated approach Sources: Asian Development Bank and United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. to long-term development strategies among small island developing states. 2 Highlights Asian Development Bank Projections GDP Growth Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 . IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) Timor-Leste . © 2019 Asian Development Bank. Papua New Guinea . Some rights reserved. Published in 2019. Cook Islands . Printed in the Philippines. ISBN 978-92-9261-912-1 (print), 978-92-9261-913-8 Tuvalu . (electronic) . Vanuatu . ISSN 2521-6066 (print), 2521-6074 (electronic) Pacific subregion Pacific islands . Solomon Islands . Publication Stock No. TCS190565-2 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS190565-2 . FSM . . Asian Development Bank Samoa . . Pacific Economic Monitor, December 2019. Marshall Islands . Mandaluyong City, Philippines. . Kiribati . This edition of the Monitor was prepared by Erik Aelbers, p p . Ananya Basu, Robert Boumphrey, Jacqueline Connell, Fiji . Prince Cruz, Noel Del Castillo, Edward Faber, Lily Anne Homasi, . Tonga . Magdelyn Kuari, Rommel Rabanal, Cara Tinio, Isoa Wainiqolo, (.) and James Webb of the Pacific Department. Publishing Nauru . (.) production assistance was provided by Cecil Caparas. Palau . The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors (.) (.) . and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or Change in real GDP ( ) p p the governments they represent. Inflation . ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included Papua New Guinea . in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any Tonga . consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies . or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are Tuvalu . endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a Nauru . similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular Kiribati . territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” Samoa . in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments Solomon Islands . as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. Pacific subregion . Pacific islands This work is available under the Creative Commons Vanuatu . Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) . Fiji . https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the . content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms Timor-Leste . of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and . Palau . permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at . https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. FSM . . This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials Marshall Islands . p p in this publication. If the material is attributed to another Cook Islands . source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be . held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Change in consumer price index ( , annual average) p p FSM = Federated States of Micronesia, GDP = gross domestic product, p = projection, Printed on recycled paper RMI = Republic of the Marshall Islands. Notes: Projections are as of July 2019 and refer to fiscal years. Regional averages of GDP growth and inflation are computed using weights derived from levels of gross national income Abbreviations in current United States dollars following the World Bank Atlas method. Averages for Pacific ADB Asian Development Bank islands exclude Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste’s GDP is exclusive of the A$ Australian dollar offshore petroleum industry. Niue joined ADB in March 2019 while Timor-Leste was moved F$ Fiji dollar to Southeast Asia subregional grouping in October 2019. These changes will be reflected in FSM Federated States of Micronesia July 2020 Pacific Economic Monitor. FY fiscal year Source: ADB estimates. GDP gross domestic product ICT information and communication technology K Papua New Guinea kina Notes lhs left-hand scale This Monitor uses year-on-year (y-o-y) percentage changes to reduce the m.a. moving average NZ$ New Zealand dollar impact of seasonality, and 3-month moving averages (m.a.) to reduce the PNG Papua New Guinea impact of volatility in monthly data. rhs right-hand scale US United States Fiscal years end on 30 June for the Cook Islands, Nauru, Samoa, and Tonga; Vt Vanuatu vatu y-o-y year-on-year 31 July for Fiji; 30 September for the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, and Palau; and 31 December elsewhere. International AND Regional Developments Global outlook remains precarious; prospects mixed for major economies GDP Growth (%, annual) y Global growth is expected to further decelerate to 3.0% in 2019 as continued trade and geopolitical tensions further increase uncertainty and take a toll World on global economic activity. Similarly, growth is expected to moderate in Developing Asia developing Asia from 5.9% in 2018 to 5.4% in 2019. Slower growth among the larger economies in East and Southeast Asia, on top of the gloomy global Pacific DMCs trade situation, is projected to significantly weaken the region’s economic United States expansion. PRC y Economic outlook for the Pacific subregion has improved because of Japan better-than-expected developments in some economies. The initial 2019 p Australia p growth forecast of 3.5% has been revised upward to 4.0%, driven mainly by higher liquefied natural gas production in Papua New Guinea and increased New Zealand construction expenditure in Samoa and Solomon Islands. However, project delays in Papua New Guinea, tepid growth in some economies, and slower recovery in others will likely moderate subregional growth to 2.5% in 2020. DMC = developing member country, GDP = gross domestic product, p = projection, PRC = People’s Republic of China. y The United States (US) economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the Notes: Developing Asia and Pacific DMCs as defined third quarter of 2019 -- faster than expected but more slowly than in the by ADB. Figures are based on ADB estimates except for World GDP growth. previous quarter. Strong consumer spending and higher government spending Sources: ADB. 2019. Asian Development Outlook 2019 supported the latest expansion. However, gross private domestic investment Update: Fostering Growth and Inclusion
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