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National Bank of Greece (NBG) Memo Name: James Zhang Phone #: (757) 788-9962 College/School: CLAS Year: Class of 2017

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National Bank of Greece (NBG) Memo Name: James Zhang Phone #: (757) 788-9962 College/School: CLAS Year: Class of 2017 National Bank of Greece (NBG) Memo Name: James Zhang Phone #: (757) 788-9962 College/School: CLAS Year: Class of 2017 Company Description [NYSE; NGB] is a Greek bank and financial services company that primarily operates in commercial banking, but also has business in retail banking, investment banking, asset management, and insurance. The National Bank of Greece SA previously wrote off huge losses on its balance sheet during the Eurozone debt crisis, it has been on a steady path to recovery since the second half of 2013, and has been expanding its business in various sectors throughout Europe. Specifically, the rise in Greek lending and home loans, diversification by way of improved operations in Turkey and emerging markets, and the general recovery of the Greek economy will propel NGB to huge growth in the long term. Most notably, recent actions by Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank will create a healthy, stable environment for the National Bank of Greece to achieve its upside potential over time. Thesis / Key Points Rise in lending and specific developments in the banking sector in Greece will play to NBG’s advantage As Greece’s largest lender, NBG has acted swiftly in the past year to boost its position financially by increasing loans and retailing banking, as well as increasing capitalization from outside investors and generating domestic confidence. o Its nonperforming loans (NLP) have receded drastically and will contribute to its profitability when compared with its 3 closest rivals, Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank, and EuroBank, who have all booked operating losses in this field. In addition, NGB now controls a quarter of commercial banking in Greece and 25% of total consumer deposits, and has also proceeded to raise around €2.5 billion in capital to reduce the Greece government’s holding stake in the bank. Thus, not only did NBG gain a pro forma Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (the required equity stake ratio as dictated by Basel III to gauge banks’ capital strength) of 11.7%, it is in a much more flexible position to redeem the preferred shares that the government held. Comparably, the Basel III CET1 ratio was 11% for Piraeus and 9.8% for Eurobank. NBG’s loan book improvement and strengthened capital ratios alleviate funding pressures o The bank’s loan provisions declined by 15% to €362 million while bad loans were reduced in tandem by 32% to €312 million; both statistics will decrease even more as the economy recovers. Likewise, consumer deposits are on an uptrend, and the loan/deposit ratio is up to 93%, signifying that NBG is now in a prime position to increase lending even more. Greek consumers understand that prices were at their lowest and will not decrease any further, so domestic demand will continue to go up and thus receive more loans from banks. Consequently, NBG has more financial freedom and has lessened its dependence on the Eurosystem funding, which is down 29% so far this year. Economists expect that mortgage lending will double in Greece in 2015, and as the nonperforming loans (NLPs) are stabilizing, NBG will be able to hand out more loans, to around €600 million total in 2015. o A domestic law in Greece that disallow banks to foreclose property is widely expected to be repealed. Currently, foreclosures in Greece is almost zero. As such, banks will soon be able to seize property of those who are in a position to pay their mortgages but choose not to. Increased operations in Turkey NGB has a 94.9% share in one of Turkey’s most prominent banks, Finansbank, which is a “cash cow” for its parent bank and will play a major role in NBG’s operations going forward o Although Finnansbank takes in only 4% of NBG’s total deposits, in 2014’s 1st Quarter, it contributed €63 million to NBG’s €181 million in net income, approximately 1/3 of the total. More recently, it generated more than €109 million to NBG’s total 3rd Quarter earnings, which is an increase of 37% from last year. None of NBG’s close competitors have a similar investment in a foreign bank, and Finnansbank was notable in helping NBG emerge through the Greek debt crisis in a better relative position. Finnansbank is also extremely profitable, and its 2nd Quarter profit increased to €85 million, by almost a third while adding 40% to NBG’s revenue stream. By diversifying its operations and hedging against Europe with its investment in an emerging market, NBG is poised to reap even stronger cash benefits from Finnansbank in the future. Economic recovery of Greece As the bank has spent much of the past few years trimming down its balance sheet and ridding itself of toxic loans, the National Bank of Greece is now ready to start expanding again as the Greek economy pulls out of its recession and economic reforms paves the way for future growth. While the economy performs better, households save more disposable income into the bank, which consequently feeds into deposits and thus the bank is able to make more loans and boost business. Recent economic developments suggest that the country is finally poised for sustained progress o The government of Greece has been extremely successful in terms of cutting its spending, and thus its deficit over time, and has already regained some confidence in investors. A positive primary balance, when revenues mostly in terms of taxes exceed spending, was recently achieved an entire year ahead of its designated schedule. Interestingly, Greece is officially trading as an “emerging market,” but is backed by a strong currency in the euro. This should accelerate its recovery process further, as would the slowing down in austerity, coupled with increasing net exports and accelerating consumption and investment from common households. As tourism approximately comprises 19% of Greece’s aggregate GDP, the huge increase in travelers is bound to contribute National Bank of Greece (NBG) Memo to the nation’s growth. o Total tourism adds up to 19 million arrivals, not including 2.2 million from cruising, which is almost 2x the domestic Greek population, and revenues in the two quarters of 2014 have swelled by around 27%, especially from tourists originating in the US and prosperous European countries such as Britain, France, Italy, and Germany. Airline bookings have increased by a quarter, and air traffic on popular islands have especially escalated.Even more encouragingly, tourists have focused more on less popular destinations. As a result, small villages and more isolated locations have earned a steady revenue stream, further igniting local economies. Recent actions of Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank In mid-November, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to increase available loans to Greek banks, and thus give more liquidity to Greece’s main lenders and spur NBG’s already-rising lending system o This act by the ECB will signify that European banks can better insure against toxic loans in the future and reduce its risk profile. As the central bank will seek to secure and cover cheap loans in Europe, NBG is able to exchange some of their assets for collateral, while increasing their overall loan activity. Subsequently, due to the improved economic climate, this will lead to NBG being less reliant on the central bank for borrowing Chief of the ECB, Mario Draghi, announced recently that the central bank will look to counter deflation, and hinted that it is likely the ECB will resort to full-scale quantitative easing(QE) in order to spur inflation. o Draghi; “The Governing Council has decided to intensify preparatory work related to outright purchases in the ABS market to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism.” The ECB is planning to buy large amounts of asset-backed securities with underlying loans made to small and medium businesses in Europe. This concept is crucial; as the ECB purchases large-scale assets in the form of pools of loans, banks such as NBG will automatically lend out more loans to consumers. As the ECB is guaranteeing such loans from default, more lending on the part of banks will directly benefit small and medium-sized businesses. Such a mechanism will ensure that business activities trickle back up and lead to more deposits in NBG, which will lead to an even larger increase in its operations. The QE would also avoid the buying of government bonds since dispensing huge amounts of cash in the dangerously low yields of Eurozone bonds would not achieve much. Mario Draghi is also resurrecting the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), a funding program during the Eurozone debt crisis for banks. The targeted LTRO will push liquidity towards non-real-estate private sector, notably small and medium- sized businesses o As larger companies have more readily access to bond markets internationally, smaller European businesses were desperately short of credit and bank loans for the past few years, and LTRO will ensure more capital to such previously disadvantaged companies. LTRO will prevent banks from drastically increasing their reserve ratios and monopolizing capital rather than making loans in difficult economic conditions. However, LTRO will help stimulate NBG’s businesses by channeling capital through the economy in a similar fashion through loaning to companies less in size. Likewise, as NBG makes more loans to small and medium-sized businesses that depend on bank lending, deposits will increase and lead to more loans. NBG has trimmed its balance sheet the past few years, but due to LTRO, the bank is now ready to restructure increased operations and raise capital ratios, which is compatible with increased loan activity.
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